This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

China Halts Rare Mineral Exports To US And Europe, Prices Set To Surge

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The latest escalation in the binary version of modern warfare (i.e., that fought with a Bloomberg instead a stealth fighter), comes from China, which the NYT reports has just halted shipment of rare minerals to the US: "China, which has been blocking shipments of crucial minerals to Japan
for the last month, has now quietly halted shipments of some of those
same materials to the United States and Europe, three industry
officials said on Tuesday." As we disclosed a few weeks ago, prepare for an explosion in various rare metal prices...

More from the NYT:

The Chinese action, involving rare earth minerals that are crucial to manufacturing many advanced products, seems certain to further ratchet up already rising trade and currency tensions with the West. Until recently, China typically sought quick and quiet accommodations on trade issues. But the interruption in rare earth supplies is the latest sign from Beijing that Chinese officials are willing to use their growing economic muscle.

“The embargo is expanding” beyond Japan, said one of the three rare earth industry officials, all of whom insisted on anonymity for fear of business retaliation by Chinese authorities. They said Chinese customs officials imposed the broader shipment restrictions Monday morning, hours after a top Chinese official had summoned international news media Sunday night to denounceUnited States trade actions.

China mines 95 percent of the world’s rare earth elements, which have broad commercial and military applications, and are vital to the manufacture of diverse products including large wind turbines and guided missiles. Any curtailment of Chinese supplies of rare earths is likely to be greeted with alarm in Western capitals, particularly because Western companies are believed to keep much smaller stockpiles of rare earths than Japanese companies do.

Dudley Kingsnorth, a rare earth market analyst at the Industrial Minerals  Company of Australia in Perth, said that if China adopted a further reduction in export quotas of 30 percent for next year, manufacturers elsewhere could face difficulties.

“That will create some problems,” he said. “It’ll force some people to look very carefully at the use of rare earths, and we might be reverting to some older technologies until alternative sources of rare earths are developed.”

Actually, no. All it means is that a little of all the record liquidity sloshing around is about to make its way to the latest bubble. And for those wondering just what the rare mineral bubble will look like, here is a reminder:

And the narrative we presented in early October:

Ever heard of the oxides of Lanthanum, Cerium, Neodymium, Praseodymium and/or Samarium? With price surges between 250% and 600% in one quarter,
you may wish you have. The recent pissing contest between Japan and
China, which culminated with a temporary export ban in rare earth metals
such as those named above, translated in ridiculous price jumps in some
compounds most have never even heard of, let alone traded, yet which
would have made not only the year, but the decade for hedge funds
invested in them. And with China producing more than 90% of the world's
supply of rare earth minerals, coupled with increasing probability of
escalating global (and regional) trade wars, it is distinctly possible
that the gains recorded recently in gold will be dwarfed by the imminent
Samarium Oxide bubble, which 3 months ago was trading at $4/kg and is
now over $30.

Again, we were correct. The next move will be higher. Much higher.

 

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:10 | 662444 BaronG
BaronG's picture

so from a newbie - how do you play this? I don't think there is an ETF or easy way to buy these guys...

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:37 | 662769 huggy_in_london
huggy_in_london's picture

LYC AU 

but beware ... its already had an exponential move.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:11 | 662446 keepmydollar
keepmydollar's picture

Anyone know why we don't mine these things here?  Do we not have these minerals or is it simply that the EPA will not let us mine them?

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:22 | 662485 longjohnshorts
longjohnshorts's picture

Cheaper land and labor, and laxer environmental rules.

Read full NYT story for more.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:38 | 662537 knukles
knukles's picture

Yessirreee Bob, never fear, we got 'em right here in The Sunny Winter Home of the Great Satan.  
BTW, good luck with getting a permit in CA to cut down a dead tree.  Oh and just to make your day; you can however, engage in one of the locale's favorite pastimes, sitting outside on a cold day talking about conservation, saving the earth, Chemtrails, HAARP weather modification and saving Tibet 'neath a portable, easy to light propane umbrella open space heater. 

http://www.overstock.com/Home-Garden/Outdoor-Black-Patio-Heater/3564783/product.html

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:04 | 662852 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Like hippies swaying, back and forth, around a campfire.

How fun! Hope that's not real wood you're burning there, pal.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:37 | 662939 Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

The Chinese used predatory pricing to get all other Rare Earth mines shut down as unprofitable. However, that is changing and I expect investment to POUR into this sector over the next few days dwarfing previous moves. Yes, I most surely do. I'm long darn near every REE company there is for months now, have made mad bank doing so.

Wed, 10/20/2010 - 07:09 | 663725 SheHunter
SheHunter's picture

We do.    www.molycorp.com/

Molycorp, Inc., a development stage company, focuses on the production and sale of rare earth oxides (REOs) from stockpiled feedstocks in the western hemisphere. It operates the Mountain Pass mine, a non-Chinese rare earth deposit. The company was founded in 2008 and is based in Greenwood Village, Colorado     

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:12 | 662451 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Bernanke will have too learn how to poop rare earths now

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:12 | 662453 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

I don't think China is very happy with Ben's plans.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:13 | 662456 jmac2013
jmac2013's picture

*

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:14 | 662457 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

So instead of stockpiling gold the Chinese are going to stockpile rare earths.  Nice. 

 

Chinese Rare Earths = Gold Jerry, Gold!

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:14 | 662460 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Eye candy charts:

GWMGF

QSURD

LYSCF

AVARF

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:53 | 662819 docj
docj's picture

Been following Avalon for a couple of months - decided to take the plunge on a very small buy just this hour.  We'll see - this is strictly "hobby time" for me at this point.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:17 | 662468 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

And just like that, the electric car is dead. LOL!  We hardly knew the.

 

I liked the hydrogen fuel cell better.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:42 | 662549 Big Corked Boots
Big Corked Boots's picture

Pickens plan (bitchez)

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:08 | 662866 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

I'd start looking at nat gas conversions, if I were you guys.

Fuel Systems, anyone? (FSYS)

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:18 | 662474 jmac2013
jmac2013's picture

Couldn't the US simply purchase rare earths from other countries who purchase them from China?  If you print enough dollars, you can presumably find a way to buy whatever you want.

 

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:43 | 662555 knukles
knukles's picture

Now there's a real time quick on his feet thinker.  For those of you old enough to remember, during the oil embargoes of the '70's countries and companies like Brazil's Petrobras used to buy boatloads (pun) of crude and shortly after disembarking into international waters, resell and transit directly for US shores. 

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:22 | 662484 septicshock
septicshock's picture

Who cares? Fuck it. I bought vix puts and some bac calls today. That's right, I am going to start riding this fucking gravy train. Print away Ben, let my gold go up, let the market go up, and everything else.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:33 | 662520 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Since NASA can no longer do moon shots as they are too busy applauding Muslim Science History, it looks like the DJIA is now in charge of moon shots.  DOW 36,000. Yeah, baby.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:23 | 662486 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Will this be the hyperinflation trigger? 

Prices of critical goods will jump if the embargo lasts for any significant duration at all. A cascade of bad events will flow from there whereby everybody's cost of doing business rises substantially on already thin margins and already trimmed payrolls. Once that psychology sets in, that the only way to survive is to drastically increase prices, then look out above!

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:55 | 662628 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Will this be the hyperinflation trigger?

Not by itself but in conjunction with the currency wars and other trade war BS starting, yes.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:24 | 662491 vegaspilot03
vegaspilot03's picture

Take a look at REE on the PKs, and of Course GWMGF looks poised to earn its share of respect

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:24 | 662492 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

All the crap is made in china anyways.  What we going to do with them once we import them? manufacturing is done in China anyways.  Just keep on importing the CPUs, batteries, etc which use the rare earths.  business as usuall.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:37 | 662532 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

Gotta have them rare earth's.. for makin all them cool missles we like to shoot them Al CIAda boogeymen with...

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:43 | 662948 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

DOWNSIZE, problem fixed, bitch. well, i think weiner's are getting downsized because of all this mess. why are all men intentionally downsizing just so they can take viagra? did you know that a lot of the mt everest type mountain climbing men take viagra? i forget the answer.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:55 | 662968 goldsaver
goldsaver's picture

Well Kathy, we need viagra just to be able to keep up with you!!!

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:22 | 662494 Bose Einstein OracIe
Bose Einstein OracIe's picture

Bear Lodge loves me, and I love Bear Lodge! ( There's gold in them there hills)

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:27 | 662499 longjohnshorts
longjohnshorts's picture

Gotta say the Chinese have a bit to learn about subtlety. I mean, folks in the West have been getting increasingly nervous about China's growing clout. Cutting off essential minerals is going to backfire against them.

The good news is that perhaps it'll prompt Congress to do something to make the US more industry-friendly. They can start by eliminating taxes on repatriated earnings, and move toward even more necessary decisions, like eliminating the minimum wage.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:35 | 662527 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Eliminating themselves would go a long way towards making me happy.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:56 | 662639 The Answer Is 42
The Answer Is 42's picture

Then I'm afraid you're destined for eternal misery. Can't say I feel sory for such a pathetic life, tho.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:54 | 662626 The Answer Is 42
The Answer Is 42's picture

Bullshit. They have done a lot of things subtly. The culture is very heavy on subtlety. But the western media have ignored all the subtle moves in their favor, effectively taking them for granted and without as much a token of recognition. So they basically said "how's this for subtlety bitchez"

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:11 | 662692 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

How do you think the Chinese feel about FED currency debasement which basically equates to a debt default?  China has the upper hand because they are the creditor and the USG is running $1T+ deficits.  They know it and are tired of the same old hypocritical lectures.  Either the USG stops the deficit spending or gets used to the Chinese protecting their investments.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:29 | 662501 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Unobtainium.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:33 | 662517 Bob
Bob's picture

Rare irony. 

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:51 | 662601 The Answer Is 42
The Answer Is 42's picture

Is that a rare isotope of iron? Kinda rusty on chemistrium.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:40 | 662543 vegaspilot03
vegaspilot03's picture

guess Dines was right.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:02 | 662661 Battleaxe
Battleaxe's picture

The Original Rare Earth Bug!

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:30 | 662506 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

I would say this is an overt declaration of hostilities. 

First Bank Of America on the Dock, then America on the Dock.

All in one day. And gold swoons, as predicted.

Hmmmmmm....... something smells rotten in Poughkeepsie!

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:57 | 662971 Big Corked Boots
Big Corked Boots's picture

Have you ever been in Poughkeepsie?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zd5wCpR8Cg4&feature=geosearch

 

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 23:42 | 663424 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Actually yes and on dial-up so video is a no-no.

I'm sure it's a funny one!

ORI

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:31 | 662508 DarkMath
DarkMath's picture

China must have known they made a deal with the devil when the sank their currency to help populate every WallMart in America with fragrant anti-microbial sponge duck soap.

Hey China, payback is a bitch isn't it.

If you didn't know you would be fucked over by the Fed then that's your problem. Time to take the whole length of that long duck dong.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTchUep_bmg

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:30 | 662509 Chappaquiddick
Chappaquiddick's picture

Old Chinese Proverb say "Man with hole in pocket feel cocky all day!"

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:46 | 662949 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

that is the best one so far. actually you could say "shemale with hole in pocket feel cocky all day."

 

cocky |?käk?|
adjective ( cockier , cockiest )
conceited or arrogant, esp. in a bold or impudent way

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:34 | 662521 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Oh noes, I can't gets rare earfs no mo. Time for panic sex and a rack of baby back ribs.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:35 | 662526 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

ridiculous price jumps in some compounds most have never even heard of, let alone traded, yet which would have made not only the year, but the decade for hedge funds invested in them.

Were it not for the fact that Wall Street is almost incapable of trading anything that isn't made out of paper, there would probably be 50 rare earth mineral funds now, and speculation in their shares would have driven prices ten times higher than they already are.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:35 | 662528 the mad hatter
the mad hatter's picture

the mad hatter would rather trade MCP for rare earths. he met the CEO on a plane, intelligent fellow.

he also needs to disclose that he owns MCP.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:16 | 662889 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Also, they will be one of the first actually producing, and thereby making a profit.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:39 | 662538 ewmayer
ewmayer's picture

Quick answers to several questions I see above:

o The U.S. in fact has rich domestic supply of rare earths, but mining/refining these things is not trivial, and we have literally shipped our capacity to do so to the Chinese - more on that below.

o We can't simply "buy them from other countries who buy them from China" because those countries aren't going to want to risk having their supllies embargoed as well, and very few countries maintain major stockpiles of these to begin with.

Interestingly, Paul Krugman - who actually can make a lot a sense when he discusses non-Keynesian-free-lunch economic matters - had an op-ed about this topic on Sunday:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/18/opinion/18krugman.html?src=me&ref=general

Here's a money quote:

"You really have to wonder why nobody raised an alarm while this was happening, if only on national security grounds. But policy makers simply stood by as the U.S. rare earth industry shut down. In at least one case, in 2003 — a time when, if you believed the Bush administration, considerations of national security governed every aspect of U.S. policy — the Chinese literally packed up all the equipment in a U.S. production facility and shipped it to China.

The result was a monopoly position exceeding the wildest dreams of Middle Eastern oil-fueled tyrants. And even before the trawler incident, China showed itself willing to exploit that monopoly to the fullest."

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:50 | 662597 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

o The U.S. in fact has rich domestic supply of rare earths, but mining/refining these things is not trivial, and we have literally shipped our capacity to do so to the Chinese - more on that below.

 

Cat~ mining division has been on fire in Illinois last 4-5 weeks. They could spit out enough equipment to solve this issue. Deere ect...

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:18 | 662721 The Answer Is 42
The Answer Is 42's picture

>>o The U.S. in fact has rich domestic supply of rare earths, but mining/refining these things is not trivial, and we have literally shipped our capacity to do so to the Chinese - more on that below.

Yes but the bitch is mining them is very hazadous to health and the environment. Too bad the Chinese realize these now. Everybody is willing to risk their lives to make money, but only to a point. If you're being nice and polite, maybe others are willing to do a bit more. But if you're being an asshole, then that point may come a little earlier and people will flip you off a little earlier.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:40 | 662540 JFerg
JFerg's picture

Sooo imma start buying kilos of Lantanum Oxide!! anyone have a good stock or ETF for this?

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:40 | 662541 Horatio Beanblower
Horatio Beanblower's picture

Situations vacant...

 


"A backlash against China's powerful presence in the Zambian economy has been triggered by an incident in which 11 miners were shot by Chinese managers."

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zambia/8073443/Zambian-miners-shot-by-Chinese-managers.html

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:23 | 662907 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Quick, somebody, sent a copy of that to J. Sinclair.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:46 | 662542 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

From that article:

Its investment in Zambia is replicated all over Africa, where leaders have lauded China for its "no strings attached" approach to aid and investment.

Get that: leaders have lauded China and "no strings attached"

No strings attached / World Bank style vs. a dozen miners shot from time to time.....Really...do you think the guys running this place give a rats ass over a few miners compared to having to put up with Western morals shoved down their throat? 

 

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:26 | 662912 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Still, I wouldn't want to be one of those managers the next time they are called home. After all, these things must be handled delicately.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 21:49 | 663208 zaknick
zaknick's picture

"western morals"??? what morals??  only when it suits the banksters do human rights count. Western hypocrisy is more like it.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:42 | 662550 The Answer Is 42
The Answer Is 42's picture

China has been either stupid or playing extra nice on rare earths, or maybe a bit of both. Now they've either waken up or toughened up a bit. Overdue, really. What's the surprise, that other people won't stay stupid or extra nice forever?

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:44 | 662553 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Sun Tzu Bitchez!

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:49 | 662591 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

Pretty much, This is one of their a false flag responses to our lumbering QE2 juggernaut. 

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:55 | 662825 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Too subtle, then. The Fed is backed up hard against massive domestic issues, nobody in America is going to pay any attention to what China rumbles about. QE2 is coming, it will be totally screwed up again, and China will just have to take it. Or they can start a brutal trade war over its. But being subtle, no that won't work.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:30 | 662921 keepmydollar
keepmydollar's picture

+1

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:48 | 662580 Jake3463
Jake3463's picture

Fuck Truman for not letting MacArthur nuke these bastards.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:49 | 662586 Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

An interesting article just published by Harvard Business Review on Chinese Currency Strategic Miscalculations (On Both Sides) http://t.co/V74weyr via @AddThis

Currency, intellectual property grabs, strategic rare minerals, and US China politics vs economics.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:51 | 662607 AGORACOM
AGORACOM's picture

My pick in the space - Avalon Rare Metals http://bit.ly/AGavlHUB  I've known management for years and they are as solid as you can ask for.  We did investor relations work for them starting at $0.12 when nobody knew what the hell a Rare Earth Element was. Once they hit $2.00 and the big board in Toronto, they were on to bigger and better things.

Avalon held their ground when gold, silver, uranium, potash and every other resource category got hot.  They never changed their focus from REE in order to jump on a trend - something junior resource stocks do all the time.

These are the guys you want to be with 5 years from now.  I hold no interest in the company right now - but plan to begin monthly accumulations for the next couple of years.

Regards,

George ... The Greek .... From Canada

 

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:52 | 662610 kalum
kalum's picture

Greenland/Hudson Resources

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:53 | 662615 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

The dip shits wanted a trade war.  They've got it.

When elephants fight, all the ants get trampled.

 

 

 

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:53 | 662617 BigJim
BigJim's picture

And how many kg of rare earths is in the average JDAM or Hellfire missile? Not many, I'd wager.

All this means is that the Federal Reserve, no, sorry, American taxpayer will be paying a few more dollars for every 'oops-sorry-we-roasted-your-children' illegal drone strike.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:04 | 662670 The Answer Is 42
The Answer Is 42's picture

Thanks for your personal illustration of how ignorance gets us into stupid nonsensical wars.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:18 | 662726 BigJim
BigJim's picture

I'm sorry. Did the lack of a /irony tag throw you?

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:53 | 662619 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

rick rack REE, kick them in the knee

rick rack ruts, kick them in the other knee

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:54 | 662625 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

The Greenies and the radical AGW crowd must be going ballistic now that it appears that the price of hybrids or EV autos will now go through the roof.  How about $100k for a Volt?  And of course, wind and solar will now be 20 X fossil fuel produced energy rather than only 5X.  Yet we have 200 years worth of NatGas.  Go figure.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:05 | 662858 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Now there's an angle. I wonder who is the relative loser if AGW goes unchecked? I guess it depends on where the rains decide to fall.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:37 | 662937 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

The Earth abides.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 16:56 | 662640 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

So now we are to believe that the political and financial elite of this nation are going to lower the globalist flag on their fleet of pirate ships and replace it with the stars and stripes? The same individuals that gutted the U.S. to build up China all to beat quarterly profit estimates by a penny and rake in ridiculous bonuses are going to see the light? Nah. Y'all obviously did not take Elite 101. To wit, when the control mechanism of the red blue paradigm begins to malfunction play the lines on the map card.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:10 | 662873 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

I thought it was play the religion card? Well I suppose you can play them all. So long as you get the requisite mobs moving, need to keep those lesser players in their place.

Quite a nice game they have. But then, they have been playing it 600 years.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:49 | 662954 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

I tried to sign up for Elite 101 but they told me all the sections were closed.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:03 | 662665 His Dudeness
His Dudeness's picture

"Should I give him sodium amytal?" "Nah, give 'im a Coca-Cola."

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:05 | 662673 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Gosh,

Does this mean we can STOP FOOD SHIPMENTS?

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:22 | 662739 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Do you think a country with a current account that is 181 out of 181 at -380B in 2009 should really be waving that flag so hard?

Do you think American agri-biz wants to eat that cost (pun intended)?

Don't bring a knife to a gun fight, son.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:06 | 662680 Obnoxio
Obnoxio's picture

It could be worse, at least China doesn't control coffee or oil. The war has already started , I just want to see if the USA or anyone else fights back against China. The jobs are already gone so lets get it on.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:18 | 662724 snowball777
snowball777's picture

I'm going to assume you're unaware of what you're suggesting would do to the price of pretty much everything in the US that isn't already overpriced by the Fed's bubble machine.

No more low, low prices at Wal-Mart..., bitch-esu.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:13 | 662880 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

The only real growth industry job left in America is "soldier".

You have to wonder if that was the intent all along.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:22 | 662734 uno
uno's picture

Stratfor had a big write up about China holding back rare earth minerals to Japan.  Rare earth is a misnomer, they are not rare, the US has a large amount, also Australia, Brazil.  China decided to undercut the price by employing their citizens  (social stability) to dig it up.  The rest of the world could not compete, so just imported it from China.  It would take a while to get back online in the US, Australia etc and the price will be higher in the future.  Stratfor thought it was more about China trying to extend product development from intermediate goods to final goods.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:49 | 662952 Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

Sure trace amounts of Cerium for instance are everywhere. But when you say they aren't rare you're wrong in the sense that minable concentrations of the REE's are rare. The Heavy REE's are extremely rare in concentration. Only a few locations on earth such as Avalon's Thor Lake deposit are of significant size. Also Quest Rare Metals has a sizable amount as well. New players are emerging as well with new drill results. 

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:29 | 662756 GoingLoonie
GoingLoonie's picture

It is not the money that matters.  China wants Taiwan.  China wants food, no better yet more land to grow food.  No, China wants the world to bow down.  We have awakened a giant.  We need to get our troops home.  We need to secure our borders.  We need to secure a source (in the Western Hemisphere) of all raw materials we may need.  We need to plan.  We need to anticipate.  For all you government employees, plan and anticipate are in the dictionary.  This may be the first shot in what could be a very quick war.  Suggested reading, One Second After.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:38 | 662771 His Dudeness
His Dudeness's picture

"Mister, I haven't tasted food for 3 days." "Well, I wouldn't worry about it... it still tastes the same."

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:38 | 662773 sbenard
sbenard's picture

There are some rare earth ETFs. This is NOT an area of expertise for me, but I have the following ETF ticker symbols in my Tradestation Workspace for Rare Earth ETFs:

RAREF, REE

I also have listed these two cos:

ACH, MCP

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:17 | 662896 Bose Einstein OracIe
Bose Einstein OracIe's picture

REE is not an etf.( It's my paycheck) cha - ching!

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:39 | 662778 deepsouthdoug
deepsouthdoug's picture

Obama should have the US Navy block about 10% of Chinese imports.  Hey commies, you want a stinkin trade war?

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:43 | 662792 His Dudeness
His Dudeness's picture

"Tell me your name so I can tell your mother." "My mother knows my name."

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:44 | 662795 His Dudeness
His Dudeness's picture

"For 2 cents I'd punch you right in the face." "Well here's the 2 cents!" "Well, I raised my price."

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:44 | 662797 His Dudeness
His Dudeness's picture

"Were you born in this country?!!"

"No, Milwaukee."

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:45 | 662799 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Ah the new big boy on the block just took off his shirt and flexed....impressive. 

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:46 | 662802 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Iridium, bitchez!

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:47 | 662804 GoingLoonie
GoingLoonie's picture

I did not say trade war, I said war!

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:47 | 662805 His Dudeness
His Dudeness's picture

"We looked for a job one day last year... there isn't any."

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:48 | 662807 His Dudeness
His Dudeness's picture

"Fire at will." "Which one is Will?"

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:51 | 662810 His Dudeness
His Dudeness's picture

"You mean I'm um-day in pig language?" "You're um-day in any language."

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 17:58 | 662832 gwar5
gwar5's picture

currency war is a trade war

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:03 | 662851 Bose Einstein OracIe
Bose Einstein OracIe's picture

Anybody else catch the SLV arb there in ah>?

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:05 | 662853 Trundle
Trundle's picture

Hah!

Fuck you and your globalisation bullshit.

Now dig!

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:11 | 662875 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Maybe they will back the Yuan with these metals too?

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:13 | 662881 Bose Einstein OracIe
Bose Einstein OracIe's picture

I think it's already been stated that they are shooting for a currency backed by natural resources? IMO, this is the way to defeat the US. Put forth a currency concept that works better......duh.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:20 | 662903 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Rare earth metals are not rare as such. Just nobody wants to have to mine them.

If your people are willing to dig things up, you have an advantage.

Of course as in Hungary recently the Chinese will suffer. Some day they'll stop this business just as everyone else has stopped it. Maybe they are thinking about stopping it already, and want the price to go up to conserve stockpiles.

It's a marketplace, see. You jack prices around, create demand, create shortages. That's how it works.

Peak-everything is teaching us again how things work. It could only be about abstract paper and financial "services" for a little while, then it goes back to being about things.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:52 | 662962 Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

Sorry not true. Minable concentrations of some Rare Earths are not common at all. The light Rare Earths are somewhat common, but the Heavy Rare Earths are extremely rare in minable concentrations. It's also the processing that's the most toxic. Digging up the ore isn't so bad unless you are stupid about it. I guess I mean no worse then mining other things unless it's a concentration that has Thorium or Uranium which isn't uncommon to find alongside the Lactinides.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:33 | 662929 Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

Take a look here for all the info you need on Rare Earth Companies:

 

https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=68479

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:36 | 662935 keepmydollar
keepmydollar's picture

Actually isn't this good.  The Chinese are doing what the Fed wants and creating inflation.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:49 | 662956 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

That's a really nice rare earth trade you have going there. Be a shame if something were to happen to it.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 18:53 | 662964 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Very surprised in the ZH posts

"American Rare Earths and Materials, Corp. is dedicated to producing the best, most reliable source of Rare Earth metals for North American industry. The United States cannot control its future with China controlling nearly 100 percent of all Rare Earths. "We need our own supply," she says. "And I remain committed to helping North American find, mine, and produce all that we need."

http://www.asminternational.org/portal/site/www/NewsItem/?vgnextoid=ce91c7a2eda8a210VgnVCM100000621e010aRCRD

Afghanistan Silk Road

http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/docs/silkroadpapers/1005Afghan.pdf

 

 

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 19:00 | 662983 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Boy, this thread has sure pulled out the idiots.

China shuts off rare earths??  LOL

We should shut off their oil.  And their food.  They're not an autarky either, the slope morons.

Review what happened in 1973 when the Arabs had their brilliant idea. WE control the earth's oil supplies because we own the oceans.  If we so choose, nothing comes IN or OUT of that stupid nation.  They can EAT and BURN their rare earths.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 19:39 | 663031 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Kids eating donuts as they bomb ships with hundreds of drones, a few get blasted out of the sky, oh well, crank up the production line.... China is playing with fire.

 

HONOLULU (AP) — The U.S. military has selected Guam — a U.S. territory in the Pacific strategically located to host forces capable of monitoring North Korea — as the next base for its most advanced unmanned plane.

Pacific Air Forces Cmdr. Gen. Gary North said Thursday that the Global Hawk drone will help the Air Force gather intelligence and conduct surveillance and reconnaissance.

Gen. North said the unmanned planes would complement missions currently operated by the U-2 spy plane and the RC-135, another surveillance plane, in the Asia-Pacific region. The U-2 plane, for example, is used for missions in South Korean airspace.

The Air Force was planning a ceremony to formally welcome the planes to Andersen Air Force Base on Monday. It plans to base three of the remotely operated planes on the U.S. territory about 2,000 miles southeast of the Korean peninsula.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 20:18 | 663076 Husk-Erzulie
Husk-Erzulie's picture

Ah, but do you really own the oceans round eyed one?  http://www.usni.org/news-and-features/chinese-kill-weapon

Want to try me?  Would suck to lose an aircraft carrier on a bet.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 20:50 | 663093 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

The X-37b will take out all your satellites if needed within days of conflict, so you will use your anti ship missle for a few days before we take out you global positioning satellites .

But the X-37b changes orbit at will (making china's anti satellite missle impotent). Because that system is used to knock out hardware in a fixed orbit like the satellite they blew out of space.

We also have 100's of drones of unknown capabilities , we have been developing the X-37B for 20 years, now you can not compare the china foray into space with the usa.....

Checkmate.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 20:58 | 663134 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

He who controls the orbitals controls the whole world.

It isn't complicated.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 23:39 | 663418 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Unfortunately Chairman Mao is the hero to the current occupant of the WH

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 20:44 | 663116 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Test it.

Test us.

I'm good with that.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 21:59 | 663230 zaknick
zaknick's picture

can't wait

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 22:48 | 663325 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Yeah, we do.

This weapon has never been proven to work.

China can't field ANY other competent weapons system, can't build their own fighter plane, fighter engine, or even a civilian airliner without TOTALLY ripping off verbatim from another country, but they have a magical kill missile that will sink a carrier?  GTFO

LOLZ.  It's all HYPE just like their sub fleet, intended to get Amuricans all riled up to approve more defense whizbang spending.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 22:55 | 663342 Bose Einstein OracIe
Bose Einstein OracIe's picture

Are you forgetting it's not 1973? Do you really think the United States can continue to project power like that? ...Against China? Shut off their oil? Planning on taking over Russia too now? Don't be so foolish as to underestimate the "enemy" here. Try making tomohawks without all these rare earths. Our mines were shut down, and we GAVE them this leverage years ago. 

We have grown fat and complacent. The rest of the world is getting the second mover effect and starting to beat us at our own games. The gig is up, it's a little late to get all patriotic and proud. 

Unsettled trade wars are solved on the battlefield.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 19:36 | 663024 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

QE2 is looking a little limp now.  I'll give it $500B max.  Get ready for the market to reset expectations.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 20:03 | 663057 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Nothing like a trade war to spur protectionism and help jump start inflation.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 20:09 | 663067 bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

I have a friend, former special warfare guy back when it really meant something - in and out of North Vietnam and China during the the late 1960's. Later in his energy career after China came on line he said, 'We are just going to default on these guys.'

All your rare earth are belong to us!

The scary part is both sides aren't thinking about nukes, air sea blockades or another land war in Asia.  They are thinking genetically tailored viruses - Ebola Zaire that switches on when it tastes Caucasian/Chinese mucus membranes.  Ted Turner and Bill Gates are creaming their jeans.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 22:16 | 663255 Green Leader
Green Leader's picture

Seems to me the Chinese are taking for a fact that they will loose X percentage of their population in a biowar--and making long term plans. They are a five thousand year old civilization and forty or fifty bad years is just a blip in time. Stockpiling all the planet's scrap steel, aluminum and copper is part of the plan.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 21:06 | 663146 gridlocked
gridlocked's picture

World War 3 is not far away.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 21:10 | 663149 On the sidelines
On the sidelines's picture

China became THE major player in Rare Earth elements (REE) not because they had the most REE in their own country, but because they owned most of the REE Refineries.

Imagine what would happen if only one country owned 95% of all of the oil refineries in the world and had those refineries in their country. The price of oil would be meaningless since without refineries crude oil can’t be used for gasoline, plastics, heating oil, etc.  The country with the 95% refieries would dictate the price, not the oil producers.

 

China played the REE trump card knowing the US couldn’t just start up REE refining overnight, especially since refining REE is dirty and toxic, and the NIMBY crowd would scream “Not In My Back Yard ” concerning a new REE refinery near them.

 

War takes on many different forms, it never has to lead to shooting, or have we forgotten how long the Cold War dragged on?

 

China can fight the new Cold War via third parties or proxies (hackers, terrorists, North Korea.)

The Chinese are not dumb in spite of what we may think of them, after all, it was a Chinese warrior, not an American, who wrote “The Art of War“.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 21:42 | 663196 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Somehow I get the feeling the first thing Sun Tzu would have done was execute the peace activists.

P. T. Barnum was more correct for the average voter.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 22:02 | 663222 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Oct. 18 2010

BEIJING (Dow Jones)--China's gross domestic product per capita will exceed US$5,000 by the end of the 12th five-year period, covering 2011-2015, Xinhua News Agency reported Sunday, citing a government meeting.

The country's GDP per capita in 2009 was around US$3,600, an earlier Xinhua report said.

Yaaa.... weeeeeeee. yaaaaa... lets shoot ofF two bottle rockets & a smoke bomb!!!

. $ 3,600 a year ...!!!

 

China warrior before drones ect ...

REE trump card ? How about a 50% tariff slap across the face on all imports from china/cut off food shipments ? You would see a red revolution before sundown, then we send kissinger over to make a new deal.

It was Americans that kept most of the world from speaking German. We helped most rebuild. We gave China all our knowlege in manufacturing over last 30 years, rockets/clinton ect....

The innovation by american business/gov. over the last 75 years is unmatched.

China has stolen tons through reverse engineering ... innovation,nope.

And this country is taking over..... ? Not now. Maybe in 2040 when their per capita matches our levels.

 

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 22:39 | 663292 goldsaver
goldsaver's picture

REE trump card ? How about a 50% tariff slap across the face on all imports from china/cut off food shipments ?

Really? Have you heard of South America? New Zealand? I heard they have farm land too.

 

It was Americans that kept most of the world from speaking German. We helped most rebuild. We gave China all our knowlege in manufacturing over last 30 years, rockets/clinton ect...

 

Right, because the Jersey Shore generation could still rise up to that challenge!

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 22:39 | 663295 Mysteron
Mysteron's picture

If you Yanks put your mind to it you could get RE refineries built very quickly. You've got the expertise (military engineers or others), you can get the raw ore from plenty of other sources and you've got plenty of govt owned remote desert locations you could plonk a dirty refinery in if you had to. What you are currently missing is decisive, strategic leadership.

It's an interesting story but there is also the distinct whiff of stock price pumping in the air. Who keeps feeding the media these unsubstantiated stories i.e. rumours? What's the betting JPM, MS and co have something to do with it seeing as they have significant holdings in some related companies e.g. Lynas.

Anyway, Lynas is scheduled to start RE production and refining next year so how long is this so called Chinese stranglehold going to last, especially if they keep sabre rattling. Lynas' CEO must be creaming himself over his stock options every time these stories hit the media.

Wed, 10/20/2010 - 04:46 | 663689 fredquimby
fredquimby's picture

JPM increased their holdings in LYC in early September. I took that as a pretty good sign and jumped on the train too. Up 20% this month so far....

pump away bitchez

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 21:46 | 663204 subscriptionblocker
subscriptionblocker's picture

It's their stuff. They have a right to do whatever they want with it.

We have "stuff" other countries want too.

 

Last I heard, trading was a voluntary activity involving a certain level of benefits to both parties. If either party loses the perceived benefit - trading probably stops.

Stopping trade doesn't automatically lead to hard feelings. Adding those is a choice.

But if one ever believes one might wish to trade with such parties again - it would be wise to keep things cordial and live up to previous promises.

One *can* be ruthlessly nationalistic - yet respectful.

 

 

Wed, 10/20/2010 - 03:28 | 663666 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Trade might be a voluntary activity from both sides but extortion is not.

You can discuss all lifelong whether or not the extorted will be finer without the extorter but the question whether or not the extorter will be finer without the extorted is a clear road to answer to.

You always smell a good and sane extortion mind when people measure up their military capacity.

Historically, guns have one primary function: backing up extortion scheme.

People do not want to sell to us? Well, we are going to invite them to sell to us.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 22:03 | 663235 zaknick
zaknick's picture

wouldn't the world be a better place without DC and Wall St.?  I think the vast majority of the world would agree.

 

nuke 'em!

 

watch all the rednex run around like chickens with their heads cut off

 

lmao

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 22:20 | 663266 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

The solution to the China embargo of rare earth metals is to embargo raw foodstuffs.  No more wheat, rice, corn sold to China.  We will sell them Wheaties, bread, Twinkies and all manner of value added products only.

 

Remember:  Trade is war without the bullets

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 22:41 | 663299 goldsaver
goldsaver's picture

You assume that they are not willing to sacrifice 20% of their population for world dominance. And that no other countries can farm. And that they can not destroy our economy. Never mind on that last one, we are doing just fine on our own.

Wed, 10/20/2010 - 08:20 | 663769 Green Leader
Green Leader's picture

The Chinese have been quietly buying and/or leasing vast amounts of agricultural land in South America.

Wed, 10/20/2010 - 09:02 | 663839 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

It doesn't work,  They did that in the 70's with the Soviets and wheat.  Canada just bought from us and marked it up to the Soviets.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 23:21 | 663376 Bose Einstein OracIe
Bose Einstein OracIe's picture

It's hard to let go of that super power mentality, isn't it? Hard to think that yer girl ain't what she used to be. I know.  I too thought I would grow up to live the American dream, never realizing even when I was growing up, that the slide had already started for my country. The slide had begun, but not yet soaked into the mentality of Americans, the patriotic and proud sentiment was still strong then. I kept it dear for years until I saw after developing the skills to question it that I was just conforming to the views that the gov deemed appropriate.

It's never too late to change, but we'd rather watch reality television than participate in our own realities. Fat, dumb, happy, and enslaved by bankers, the rat race continues and the rats run without ever stopping and thinking twice about it. No one cares or understands what is going on around them anymore. The football score is the most important statistic in America now, and most people have no idea what a mess the world is in right now.

-Think for yourself, question authority. T.L.

 

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 23:31 | 663398 gwar5
gwar5's picture

One more to the list of things to hoard --- batteries. 

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 23:33 | 663402 Bankster T Cubed
Bankster T Cubed's picture

Confucious say "he who trade rare elements for toilet paper wake up surrounded by ass wipes"

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 23:48 | 663437 honestann
honestann's picture

Just after he proclaimed "duck that fly upside down, quack up".

Wed, 10/20/2010 - 09:38 | 663927 Raymond K Hassel
Raymond K Hassel's picture

Dacha Strategic Metals - they have .42 cents per share (as measured last week) of REE sitting in a warehouse - trading around .48

Thu, 10/21/2010 - 01:01 | 666128 LocalHero
LocalHero's picture

All this means is that China is tired of financing the US military bases that now encircle it (and who can blame them). I hope they choke us until our military is good and dead.

Thu, 10/21/2010 - 01:19 | 666142 LocalHero
LocalHero's picture

"It was Americans that kept most of the world from speaking German."

 

Holy smokes Spalding. You've not only drunk the kool-aid, you must be hoarding the stuff! WWII was over the day Germany invaded Russia. By the time the US entered the campaign, Germany's fate was sealed. I know how you must love all the Ra-Ra war stuff you've been told, but the US was late to the party - and it was a party that we had absolutely no business in.

 

You need to read some history - preferably stuff that wasn't written by warmongers or "military historians." Try starting with Rethinking the Good War. You can find it here.

 

http://www.lewrockwell.com/vance/vance181.html

Sat, 11/13/2010 - 08:32 | 724523 mark456
mark456's picture

Thanks for taking the time to discuss this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic.
cheap vps

windows vps

cheap hosting  | ucvhost

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!