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China Inflation And Wage Protests Spread, Turn Violent

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Yesterday we reported news that has so far received almost no media exposure, namely that thousands of striking truck drivers had poured into Shanghai's Waigaoqiao zone, one of the city's busiest container ports, protesting over "rising fuel prices and low wages." Today, via Reuters, we learn that this situation has escalated materially, and progressed into violence: "A two-day strike over rising fuel prices turned violent in Shanghai on Thursday as thousands of truck drivers clashed with police, drivers said, in the latest example of simmering discontent over inflation. About 2,000 truck drivers battled baton-wielding police at an
intersection near Waigaoqiao port, Shanghai's biggest, two drivers who
were at the protest told Reuters. The drivers, who blocked roads with their trucks, had stopped work on Wednesday demanding the government do something about rising fuel costs, workers said." And while we have violent uprisings over austerity in Europe, now we have violent strikes over inflation in China? The question thus now is just how much longer will China continue to take massively ineffective steps such as RRR and rate hikes, both of which have been a tremendous failure in reining in inflation, instead of picking the nuclear option of revaluing the currency. And while many believe China may announce something along those lines over the weekend, Win Thin, global head of emerging market strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, is not so sure and put the odds of a yuan revaluation at 25%. "With regards to currency policy, we are putting forth the following three possibilities along with odds: 1) keep current pace of appreciation (10%), 2) do one off revaluation (25%), and 3) speed up pace of appreciation (65%)." Either way, with more people joining the populist movement against inflation, China is now between a rock and a hard place: will it continue happily importing Bernanke's inflation exports or finally retaliate. Unfortunately for its economy, the appropriately called "nuclear option" of revaluation, will leave it export economy flailing. So the real question: is China ready to migrate from an export-led to a consumer-led model. Alas, the answer is a resounding no.

More on China's now violent protest:

"I want the government to stand up to solve our problems because we cannot take this anymore. We are unable to bear the cost of operating now," said a driver surnamed Chen, 33, a native of Henan province who has been driving for eight years.

The strike comes against a backdrop of rising consumer prices and fuel price increases. China's inflation rate hit 5.4 percent in March, prompting officials to renew vows to use all available means to contain price rises.

Police arrested at least six people and beat up some protesters with batons, said Chen and another driver also surnamed Chen, 35. They declined to give their full names or the name of their company for fear of reprisals.

Both drivers, who work for a small transport company, showed photographs to two Reuters reporters of police carrying a man with a bloodied head, with his wife and daughter at his side.

Repeated calls to the Shanghai public security bureau and the municipal government went unanswered.

Worse, the strikes are now metastasizing to other cities:

Truck drivers also staged strikes in other ports in Shanghai including Baoshan and Yangshan, the drivers said.

The strikes and protests, if they continue, could become a worry for the ruling Chinese Communist Party, which fears public discontent that could erode its authority and alarm investors.

Workers say their wages have not kept up with rising prices.

One wonders why the Chinese, living under an authoritarian regime are willing to engage in violent protests with far more dangerous personal consequences, while the American peasant continues to gladly accept $5 and soon $6 oil:

The 33-year-old Chen said his disposable income had fallen to 4,000 yuan (370.28 pounds) a month, from 6,000 to 7,000 yuan a month last year.

The 35-year-old Chen said he was still on strike, together with what he estimated were thousands of others.

At a parking lot three blocks away from the protest site, about 30 anti-riot policemen arrested two truck drivers and dispersed a crowd of 50 to 70.

Earlier, other truck drivers had driven past, shouting to their fellow drivers to "join the strike, stop driving."

What is sure, is that the immediate impact of the strike is already being felt:

ROE Logistics, a Montreal-based customs broker and freight forwarder, issued a statement on Wednesday about a strike at a Shanghai port, saying it could result in delays.

"Delays in receipt of export containers may result in possibleknock-on effects to sea freight with possible delays or rollovers from carriers," the firm said.

An employee in Shanghai from another shipping company, New York-based Ocean World Lines, confirmed there had been a strike but declined to give other information.

"This is a sensitive topic. I really don't have any other information," Max Wang told Reuters.

And while it is logical that China's propaganda machine would not talk about this development, why other "democratic" countries have said nothing about this is just a little strange:

China's state media has been silent on the protest, underscoring the sensitivity of unrest for the ruling Communist Party, which normally stamps out protests fearing a threat to stability.

China said in early April it would increase retail gasoline and diesel prices by 5-5.5 percent to record highs.

The good thing is that China now has hit its breaking point. Any inflation beyond current levels will only make matters worse. So the ball is in the politburo's court. Alas, as central planning does all too well, expect the decision taken to be the worst possible one for both China's and the global economy.

h/t Christopher

 

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Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:16 | 1192906 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

China revolt/crash will save our economies... If we can hang the bankers and the corrupt scumbags in office too.

 

Only China crashing will make our corrupt system continue for at least a few more years. So... let the US crash before... then we hang the bankers, then China crashes... then we are golden.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:19 | 1192928 tmosley
tmosley's picture

What?  No.

The only way we survive a Chinese crash at this point is if we manage to rebuild our industrial base first.

What do you think will happen when cheap Chinese goods are suddenly no longer available?  Endgame for America (and other Ponzi economies), that's what.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:26 | 1192956 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Improvise, adapt and overcome.

It is the American way.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:26 | 1192964 Ivanovich
Ivanovich's picture

+1. 

 

So Americans are forced to no longer buy worthless plastic crap they hoard in every room of their stuffed houses.  So the hell what? 

The real question is what happens to the Treasury market.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:00 | 1193128 margaris
margaris's picture

Amen.

It is time everyone remembered what he really needs to survive. Air, water and food.

Everything else is crap.

Life will go on.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:34 | 1193255 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Survival is a brutish thing without love.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 18:50 | 1194522 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Jimi would understand:

"nasty, brutish, and short"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leviathan_%28book%29

John would be imagining something.  Go figure.

- Ned

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 03:35 | 1195482 mworden
mworden's picture

solitary poor nasty brutish and short

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:38 | 1193287 Zardinuk
Zardinuk's picture

Yup, everyone remember air water and food. Ah shit, what're we going to do when the 90% of the country that doesn't stockpile food is rioting over food prices?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:49 | 1193351 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Let them eat iPads.

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:02 | 1193419 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Swap them rioting and air for Pb, and Cu.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:15 | 1193492 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

I try my best not to buy chinese crap, it is damn near impossible...

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:17 | 1193510 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Unfortunately, if anybody thinks more than perhaps 1% of the population is prepared for anything like this, they are mistaken.

The sheep have been reared from birth to believe they are entitled to a world that the advertisers have created, one in which you can have that new car, 3 kids in college, a big house, all the plastic shit you need etc. and never have to worry about a thing.

There will be a collective mental breakdown, nobody knows how that may turn out.....

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 20:01 | 1205928 tomster0126
tomster0126's picture

Exactly, I've been spending minimally since the '08 crash and have been living a much happier, cleaner life.  We need to stop relying on Chinese plastics and utilize industrial hemp as a source of plastics and other material!

 

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:30 | 1192979 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Once and future way.

Not the present, sadly.  Some keep the flame alive, though.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:33 | 1192995 Michael
Michael's picture

The Chinese people need to learn how to use Molotov cocktails and burn all the government shit down.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:52 | 1193085 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

"A nickel isn't worth a dime today."

or

"When you come to a fork in the road, take it."

- Yogi Berra

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:03 | 1193130 tmosley
tmosley's picture

A nickel is worth between 7 cents and $2.60 today.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:24 | 1193236 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Tis true.  Coin debasement sure makes for interesting conversation, for this crowd at least. Try talking about this shit with the beer drinking baseball crowd and this is what you get - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAVoU_UXgQI&feature=player_embedded

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:27 | 1193551 walcott
walcott's picture

A nickel is worth more than a dime or a quarter.

And a half cent less than a sacagawea dollar.

Soon to be worth more than said dollar.

Buy boxes of nickels.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:39 | 1193258 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Molotovs? :)

 

CHINA IS ONE OF THE ONLY PLACES IN THE WORLD WHERE YOU CAN BUY 1 TON OF AMONIUM NITRATE FOR 200$!!

Just google it :)

 

http://www.alibaba.com/product-gs/420962014/calcium_ammonium_nitrate.html

 

Small explosion with 50gr of Ammonium Nitrate:

http://www.google.nl/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CDIQtwIwAw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Dkn6hb3kZ2NI&ei=FHqwTdawF8aDOoj1xI0J&usg=AFQjCNGWLjiafEbkt_LARP6O-eR70tDogg

 

http://www.google.nl/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CDIQtwIwAw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Dkn6hb3kZ2NI&ei=FHqwTdawF8aDOoj1xI0J&usg=AFQjCNGWLjiafEbkt_LARP6O-eR70tDogg

 

 

 

If these guys want to make bombs, they have very easy access to every chemical a terrorist can dream off :)

 

BOOM CHINAMASTER!! BOOM

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:42 | 1193297 Zardinuk
Zardinuk's picture

Can you buy blasting caps by the ton too?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:52 | 1193359 Sudden Debt
Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:03 | 1193441 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Do you really think the Chinese can overcome the submissiveness that is bred into their bones?

Some chains are stronger than steel.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:44 | 1193675 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Nothing more dangerous than hungry people.

 

 

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 10:05 | 1195858 RacerX
RacerX's picture

+1. Correct answer.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:55 | 1193098 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

We got so much junk stashed in garages we dont need new shit for a generation.

Personally i am a strong admirer of afro engineering.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:06 | 1193453 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Pack rats will come into their own.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:45 | 1193672 goldsaver
goldsaver's picture

"Afro Engineering"? Shit, that was funny!

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:05 | 1193141 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

Where's NATO?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:27 | 1193568 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Didn't they go on strike demanding more government subsidies for laser guided weapons.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:16 | 1192907 WALLST8MY8BALL
WALLST8MY8BALL's picture

Protesting. Another Job American's just dont want to do....

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:22 | 1192934 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

SHIZAM! I think you just won the thread my friend. 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:39 | 1193016 WALLST8MY8BALL
WALLST8MY8BALL's picture

Or maybe just hanging on to one? Thanks Burn.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 23:28 | 1195197 FIAT_FixItAgainTony
FIAT_FixItAgainTony's picture

+47 

i spend a lot of time protesting.  i feel it's more of a duty than a job though.  i wish more peeps quit being so wimpy.

<sarc>

slavery or freedom?  gee, i dunno, do i gotta stand?  whats on tv?

*urrrp*

</sarc>

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:16 | 1192917 Popo
Popo's picture

Those most exposed to oil prices will crack first.   Trucking is particularly sensitive -- and a trucking strike particularly damaging  in its downstream effects.  

My bet is Beijing keeps monetary policy where it is and offers support measures to the trucking industry -- for the time being.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:40 | 1193293 Bleeping Fed
Bleeping Fed's picture

How, by printing more money to pay for more diesel subsidies?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:22 | 1192919 duo
duo's picture

I've had some power tools on the radar for many months.  Looks like it's time to buy them.  Jointer, table saw, stuff that I'll need to make chicken coops for the neighbors.

PS, posted earlier.  Found out this morning that my favorite Subway breakfast sandwich is now HALF the size it was a few weeks ago, but the price dropped to $2.25 from $2.50.  It's also interesting that the menu changed so that there is nothing to compare to what was on the old menu at the old prices.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:22 | 1192931 aphlaque_duck
aphlaque_duck's picture

Jointer? That sounds like a fine chicken coop.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:21 | 1192939 duo
duo's picture

for those that want to keep chickens in their kitchen cabinets.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:28 | 1192976 aphlaque_duck
aphlaque_duck's picture

How do you find replies to your posts on ZH? Maybe I'm retarded but I clicked through my account etc and can't find it.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:06 | 1193151 margaris
margaris's picture

My account ---> Track --> All Threads you posted are listed--> Choose one --> Then check for new answers.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:41 | 1193024 WALLST8MY8BALL
WALLST8MY8BALL's picture

My friend on Long Island has one in his back yard. he moves it once every 3 months and then farms the area those sections. Nothing's better than a real fresh egg.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:23 | 1193537 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

Get yourself an incubator & a http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-pbRxIlpuw . Have chicken will eat..

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:22 | 1192930 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Give them a triple "A" rating.  There, all better.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:20 | 1192935 nah
nah's picture

china for the chinese man man

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:21 | 1192938 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

The common denominator in all the world seems to be people expecting government to fix things.
Is all of mankind slaves now?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:28 | 1192962 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

HA! NOW? Dude what do you think civilization runs on?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:37 | 1193001 DR
DR's picture

Government exclusively controls the coin-we have a right to expect fairness. Private business NEEDS a sound currency in order to thrive.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 23:29 | 1195202 FIAT_FixItAgainTony
FIAT_FixItAgainTony's picture

+47.  amen.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:46 | 1192959 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

they stop oil exports.  the drivers riot. 

what we have, here, is a failure to communicate...

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:54 | 1193083 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Plus one for the cool hand luke reference.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:27 | 1192966 Fortunes Favor
Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:30 | 1192975 dukeland
dukeland's picture

If China revalues, Bernanke will taste his own medicine with higher cost of imports in Amreika. 'China again bare-nake'd America'

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:28 | 1192977 Count Laszlo
Count Laszlo's picture

China is working on it. The top 1% own 40- to-60% of China. Sound familiar? Ehem, top 1% of US owns 40%...

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:44 | 1193031 WALLST8MY8BALL
WALLST8MY8BALL's picture

Or is that the top 1% of China own 40% of the US?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:54 | 1193387 Count Laszlo
Count Laszlo's picture

Touché!

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:29 | 1192982 Robslob
Robslob's picture

So now we know why the market really rallied...if China revalues then are market will sky?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:32 | 1192985 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

O my, Americans have no idea  as long as American Idol is on . who cares about anything else in the world. Fucking Sheeples in the USA and their fucking IPADS and crap.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:38 | 1193277 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

They don't need to know.

Imagine your on Titanic and it just struck a iceberg.

What would you do if you knew the ship was sinking:

1. Warn everybody and risk to lose your place on the lifeboats.

2. Get inside the lifeboat while wearing a fur coat and row away.

 

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:31 | 1192988 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Revalue RMB 20% .  Inflation problem solved.  

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:59 | 1193121 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Torpedo the housing market, inflation problem is marginally reduced in China (vs. USA where inflation problem is non-existent/"transitory" because of US CPI composition)

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:38 | 1193006 ArsoN
ArsoN's picture

Their rich elite makes their money off exports right?  ...no chance currency revaluation. (period)

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:46 | 1193054 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

Ah...but just think how cheap the raw materials would be that they import to make all that stuff.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:42 | 1193030 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Revaluation of their currency isn't a panacea. They have enough clownbux to give subsidies a go for awhile.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:47 | 1193061 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Great.

We get a subsidy and get to pay in a depreciating currency.

Double score for the usa!

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:51 | 1193076 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Unless they start seriously outbidding us for earl.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:50 | 1193063 Pants McPants
Pants McPants's picture

My memory could be off, but didn't Turbo Tim travel to China several times to request the Chinese strengthen their currency?

If that's true, then the US is getting what it wants, correct?

And how would this affect QEIII?

I'm probably tying too many things together, but something seems off.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:57 | 1193100 aheady
aheady's picture

A whole fucking lot of things seem off.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:52 | 1193068 Arch Duke Ferdinand
Arch Duke Ferdinand's picture

The strong real estate markets in Vancouver and Toronto owe much to Chinese buyers, which is causing growing fear and resentment...

http://seenoevilspeaknoevilhearnoevil.blogspot.com/2011/04/vancouver-bc-...

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:55 | 1193102 Scisco
Scisco's picture

"I want the government to stand up to solve our problems because we cannot take this anymore."

1) Learned helplessness at its finest.

2) The government will stand up to solve your problems right after they take care of themselves first.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:26 | 1193108 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

As a Chinese guy I know says, "In America people think they are free but are not.  In China, people know they are not free."  This means that Americans have the choice to be complacent, and this is detrimental in karmatic behavior, and the Dinosaur Kings know that the best way to trick a dog is to take its food away while it sleeps.

Oh and China is trying to do everything they can to keep the wheels from falling off, but it is hard when global finance is controlled by those who wish to spend their way into the unimaginable depths of hell.

Oil Crisis Just Got Real: Sinopec (Read China) Cuts Off Oil Exports:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/oil-crisis-just-got-real-sinpoec-cuts-o...

Takes a second to say goodbye
Say goodbye, oh, oh, oh
It takes a second to say goodbye
Say goodbye, oh, oh, oh, say bye bye...
Where you going to now...

Lightning flashes across the sky
East to west, do or die
Like a thief in the night
See the world by candlelight.

Fall, rise and...Fall, rise and...

In an apartment on Time Square
You can assemble them anywhere
Held to ransom, hell to pay
A revolution everyday
USSR, GDR, London, New York, Peking
It's the puppets, It's the puppets
Who pull the strings

Fall, rise and...Fall, rise and...

Say goodbye, say goodbye
Say goodbye, say goodbye
Say goodbye

It takes a second to say goodbye
Say goodbye, oh, oh, oh
Push the button and pull the plug
Say goodbye, oh, oh, oh

Fall, rise and...Fall, rise and...

And they're doing the atomic bomb
Do they know where the dance comes from
Yes they're doing the atomic bomb
They want you to sing along
Say goodbye, say goodbye
Say goodbye
Say goodbye. 

-U2, from the song "Seconds"

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 18:57 | 1194550 the misanthrope
the misanthrope's picture

I'm sorry. I like a number of your posts that I have read. and i did not junk you.

but quoting U2 is too much. that bozo, or bonehead, whatever the fuck his name is, is a hypocrite. standing with western leaders, aka war criminals, asking them to shove their hands deeper in to the working mans pocket for some pet project of his. he knows how business and profit works, he has that going for him in africa. and one more thing, he is talent-less, uh, actually no talent, none. maybe the other members, but him, fuck off. my apologies for rant. i hate that shit head.

on another note - if i click on the side ads zh gets money, yes?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:58 | 1193110 dhengineer
dhengineer's picture

China has to buy all sorts of raw materials and energy from the rest of the world.  With their new agreements with the BRICs a couple of weeks ago to deal with local currency, they could very well go on a shopping spree with their newly-strengthened yuan and drop internal prices.  Sure they export lots of stuff, but they are approaching the point where the US was after WWII:  lots of internal demand, lots of domestic disposable income, failing adversaries overseas, and massive buying power. 

I think a revaluation is coming and coming hard...

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:02 | 1193127 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

I thought they only drove Vespa's with giant sacks of stuff strapped to them?  Does this make me an ignorant American?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:03 | 1193129 humblepie
humblepie's picture

I lived in Shanghai for three years since 2007. Shanghai has the TIGHTEST security in all of China, as it is deemed the "Model" city. When I read the news of the riots yesterday, I thought for sure, it would be contained and be a one-time event or 'non-event'. For it to have continued has surprised me. That means the Shanghainese, who are traditionally less inclined to participate in 'rebellious' movements (unlike the inhabitants of Beijing), have really had enough, or can't go on as it is. When I was there, a taxi driver once told me about corruption in the system. It shocked me to learn that government rebates on fuel to drivers, who rent the cabs, were never passed through. The money lined the pockets of company officials. I'm sure truck drivers face similar issues, on top of rising fuel costs. I don't know how it will end, but doesn't look good for the central government. They have lost control.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:28 | 1193245 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

It shocked me to learn that government rebates on fuel to drivers, who rent the cabs, were never passed through. The money lined the pockets of company officials...

 

They learn fast.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:01 | 1193133 Tracerfan
Tracerfan's picture

China's problems are miniscule compared to the U.S.'s.

$3 trillion cash vs. $200 trillion debt

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:11 | 1193180 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

yeah thats chinas problem $3 trill cash in USD

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:11 | 1193181 SilverFiend
SilverFiend's picture

What?  I thought China was the shining beacon of light for the 21'st century.  Now I am really confused.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:33 | 1193228 ivars
ivars's picture

China has 3 level priorities:

1) Maintain the rule of communist party

2) Maintain sovereignity over all its parts

3) Maintain economic development speed

Which of these will be sacrificed if things get hard in China? Start from the bottom. Nationalization of private industries and businesses, including foreign, redistribution of wealth, elimination of middle class.

The rest of the problems which will arise with China slowing down will be solved internally by usual communist methods.

Wellfare of the people has never come even close to the top of priorities. Its improvement is only a temporary side effect of industrialization of China and stealing of technologies and knowhow, scientific knowledge from the West.

So, not according to Tyler, China will be perfectly consistent in solving their problems by eliminating them in a sequence that satisfies their priorities . No people, no problem. Neo-Stalinism. That will give them an edge over the weakened West for at least 40-50 years.

By taking hard line stance soon, China will win superpower status very soon, based on military might and consolidated command structure.

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2627#p30516

And they are not the first in communist history to win over the West with similar methods  in history. See Soviet Union, 1928-1938. The end of New Economic Policy and start of serious militarization. Finalized in 1949 with Soviet Union as one of worlds 2 superpowers. Started from scratch after 1929 crisis in the West.

 

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2627#p31680

 

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:31 | 1193260 magpie
magpie's picture

But, but socialism is a government by workers for workers, right ?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:00 | 1193423 ivars
ivars's picture

No way. Socialim is a rule of most envious elements of the society. In some societies, they outnumber others with any other dominant psychological trait, and then country becomes "socialist" and centrally planned in all issues, including free time. "Equality" (so that no one has more than me) instead of "liberty". We know where it ends, from history.

Mostly they will come from have nots, but they should not necessary be workers. In fact, in today's China, they are most likely poor people working for richer peasants.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:15 | 1193500 magpie
magpie's picture

only being sarcastic there.

The Chinese nomenklatura will be going full blown nationalistic anyway, well in public if they haven't already.

When the kettle blows, it will hit other people first.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 16:59 | 1194044 ivars
ivars's picture

Sure. And soon there is change of power, in the end of 2012. I place my bets on hardliners backed by military. End to capitalism in China ( very effective way to cool down bubbles , economy is to reduce the amount of capitalism in it).

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 17:25 | 1194165 magpie
magpie's picture

And i was about to say that the point China wins is when you are not only willing to invest there, but also lend money to their government.

Though without any appearances of capitalism in the future, the point is moot.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:54 | 1193374 zaknick
zaknick's picture

nstead of picking the nuclear option of revaluing the currency

revalue to gold and silver, crashing your bankster dollar, biatch!

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 16:32 | 1193929 TSA gropee
TSA gropee's picture

I remember being in China in the late 90's and passed by an overpass being built, wouldn't have stood out except for the fact that instead of a concrete pump filing the columns, there was a brigade of wheel barrow toting workers pushing them up the ramp and manually dumping the mud. The Chinese economy much like their infrastructure is a house of cards.

 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 20:02 | 1205936 thames222
thames222's picture

It's a house of cards, but the amount of assets and overall wealth they have makes it impossible for them to ever fall.  China's industry is more than an empire, it's a universe.

 

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Thu, 04/21/2011 - 17:35 | 1194222 no2foreclosures
no2foreclosures's picture

I was in Shanghai last September.  Amazing city with amazing progress in terms of infrastructure and the entrepreneurial spirit of the people (no food stamps so to eat one must do something). Shopping on the Nanjing Road is like visiting "Disneyland on steroids" for shopping and don't forget bartering (Westerners seem to forget this aspect of buying in China).

The problem with Shanghai and the rest of China is that everything is fine as long as you keep you mouth shut, most especially on anything remotely to do with the CCP, local government, and the status quo.  The minute you open your mouth on any of these subjects, you realize that you are living in a very very efficient police state.

Alas, the macro problem of China is that she is stuck between a rock (continual expansion of her exports) and a hard place (how to roll out "consumerism" to the rest of China quick enough before the Ponzi Scheme of the U.S. finally collapses).

As I predicted in my "Nine 2011 Predictions" that was published online on Dec. 23, 2010, both of which are coming true:

http://rense.com/general92/stdr.htm

5. The Chinese real estate market, the last investment vehicle in China for those Chinese with money, will also begin its collapse suddenly, hitting hard cities like Shanghai, Beijing, Fuzhou, etc.  According to a very recent article by UK's Daily Mail Online, there are as many as 64 MILLION empty homes in China with no one occupying these brand new homes!  This China real estate crash will have serious implications for the real estate market in Vancouver.  There won't be m/any Chinese millionaires plunking down $1+ million CASH for buying real estate in Vancouver, as has been the case over the recent years.

6. Inflation will run rampant in China as it is already doing so with retail food prices.  See my recent article (www.rense.com/Currency%20Wars%20For%20Dummies.pdf) as to the real causes of huge inflation in China.  Unless China allows its Yuan to appreciate (increase in value) against the ever falling USD, rampant inflation in China will continue its course unabated.  If China allows its Yuan to appreciate by any significant amount (7% or more), such an action will DECIMATE its export industries and manufacturers, because of the extremely thin profit margins that their exporters have to work with.  China will raise its interest rates to try to stop inflation but that will not do the job.  In fact, raising interest rates will only cause more foreign currencies to go into China in search of higher yields, unless China imposes strict restrictions on the importation of foreign currencies and investments.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 21:48 | 1194955 herewego...
herewego...'s picture

 

6. Inflation up. I agree. Thus folks have to store their wealth somewhere.

5. Real-estate down. I hope so as I'd like to BTFD, but I don't see it this year. Chinese in 1st tier (and 2nd and 3rd) cities only have real estate to invest in, the stock-market is rigged worse than the west (ramps galore) and they can’t get their money out of China, and when they can don’t have the knowledge to buy anything but what they know (Canada real estate would seem to back that up). Other options are businesses that your friends are in, but the Chinese are aware the risk of pyramid schemes (not that always stops them).

They are slowly realizing that PMs are it, but it’s not a major thing by any means.

Thus – real-estate. Also a new(ish) cultural thing – to be seen as successful you must own a house (and a car). The little emperors (80s children/90s children from 1 child policy) don’t have the money on their own. But they don’t need to, they have 2 parents and 4 grandparents (often still alive – medical technology in China is better than many think, and Chinese medicine is shit-hot at prevention) that have saved forever and are happy to fulfill their cultural duty and buy little-wang a home.

Recap: *that’s 6 people* looking out for *1*

The flip side of the same damn coin is that little-liu (a woman) can rely on her 6 relatives PLUS little-wang’s 6 relatives when setting up house. That’s a fair proportion of 12 people’s life-savings going into real-estate, and that’s happened a few million times this week alone.

So, I hope I’m wrong as I want in, but Chinese real estate will only pop with a cultural shift toward a different investment or when the xiao-wangs and xiao-lius have finally exhausted their ancestors’ wealth. Unlikely to be this year.

(BTW: exhaustion of wealth likely to be in medical costs for declining relatives, esp. thru cancer as everything in China is carcinogenic)

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 22:35 | 1195098 CitizenPete
CitizenPete's picture

While in China for a couple extended business trips, I saw a couple rubber-banded manila envelopes over-stuffed with RMB for delivery as "gifts" to managers who had delivered on a promise to see a major 7-digit order go through.  It's apparently common place and even expected that a business will provide a "gift" in order for someone to "save face" for screwing someone else out of a deal and going your way.   We were told once that an order from a competitor was being taken away from someones relative so there were apparently multiple levels of "face saving" trickling down through the system.  Some days I felt like I was traveling the country and dealing with the Mafia -- I did not speak Mandarin, and I didn't want to know any details. I was pretty naive' about the level of bribery -- in the U.S. every major company I worked with grilled the "bribery and corruption" issue to a crisp at the highest levels -- anyone caught even suggesting it meant termination and potentially criminal charges if you did it -- and I never did. (Obviously I didn't work in the Financial Industry.)

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 07:58 | 1195634 Old Poor Richard
Old Poor Richard's picture

The US so successfully exploited the entire world in the last 60 years that we have much more margin/buffer before Americans finally are pinched so hard they can't breathe.  The PIIGS and BRICs are much closer to breaking because they aren't starting from such a high position on the ladder, with so much blubber around their waists.

The USA will fall last, but I'm not convinced it will fall hardest because there is so much left to steal, cushioning our fall by landing on top of other countries.  Still, there's the chance the smart money overcomes inertia and family ties (or load their families into the jalopy) and expatriate.  Like that dude trying to sell the Pacific Northwest as Shangri-La. 

I'm already wishing we'd engaged in some birthright tourism when our daughter was born so she could have the option of dual citizenship for her.

 

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 22:21 | 1198187 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

The PRC "injected" over $800 Billion (officially) into their economy, i.e., directly into their RE and stock market (na dinto the pockets of wealthy RE developers) and creating more Billionaires in China then in the USA in just two year! Add to that the trillions of "hot money" and those markets became a bigger Bubble then the USA subprime imo.

Last year I watched TV interview various people complaining about rising food and housing...the PRC CB did nothing.

Last November I watched PBS interview a Shanghai realtor who said "prices are rising over 8% per month"...the PRC CB did nothing. Rural peasants were complaing that food was too expensive. One old man said "green peppers rose 300% in one month"....no action was taken to curb the problem.

Now we have riots and protests and the gubberment there is behind the curve.

I wish them good luck but agree with those who predict a "hard landing" there such as many economists predict. Will China still, "lead the world out of global depression?"

Will The Bernank's printing and the next QE3 lead America on the same path?

Das ist eine gute Frage.

 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 20:01 | 1205923 thames222
thames222's picture

Wow, Chinese truck drivers mean business.  If only American truckers were so passionate about the industry at home, I really feel bad for the families I know who work in trucking and have had to basically up and leave the business for something else entirely.

 

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