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China - The Mother of All Black Swans (updated)
I presented my thesis on China and Japan at my alma mater University of Colorado at Denver at International Executive Roundtable yesterday. Here is updated version of my China presentation. China - The Mother of All Black Swans by Vitaliy Katsenelson - April 2010
Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA, is a portfolio manager/director of research at Investment Management Associates in Denver, Colo. He is the author of “Active Value Investing: Making Money in Range-Bound Markets” (Wiley 2007). To receive Vitaliy’s future articles my email, click here.
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Thanks for taking the other side of my trade. I'll think of you from time to time when I reinvest my profits.
on on neither side ,
85 percent of traders lose lol
trade away ,, banks here look like a good bet lol
You've got that right ... I've been short since SP at 800!
Every Ponzi has a beautiful story but every one ends up badly. In China case, a super-inflation will follow and solve all current problems. Chinese people have to eat all the loss because their currency is not 'world reserve'
High financial leverage in China?
On what, and compared to what??
This seems especially relevant with the eruptions in Iceland.Probability of Katla erupting is high, and it has destroyed crop harvests in Europe before.If that happens, the redirection of capital for food could be exactly the drop required to push China over the precipice.Global Fail.
I know if Katla erupts then it will destroy crops in europe and possibly asia. But what it will do across the planet is give us a few years of hard winters with a 5 degree drop across the planet. They said that the Mississippi was frozen a right above New Orleans when last Katla erupted.
Absolutely.Demand for fuel oil would skyrocket.A perfect storm brewing.
Dont worry, dudes. Iceland will join EU within few years and then all volcanos will be regulated! ;)
Great presentation... however 'Black Swan' comes with conotations of the 'unexpected' with it. Try this catchy title instead...
China - The Mother of all Ticking Time Bombs!
Bubble tea anyone?
I blew a snot bubble ...LOL