China Is Orchestrating A 30% Crash In The Property Market

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Wed, 02/09/2011 - 08:53 | 945911 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Would America have done the same?

 

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 09:00 | 945921 cossack55
cossack55's picture

NFW. Its all about the (bank) bonuses.  Not economic fundamentals or even reality.  Let the people eat shit and die.  Got's to luv good ol' Malthus.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 09:11 | 945947 jus_lite_reading
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Hey CHINA! How's that "mutually assured destruction" working out for ya? Do you still believe the scum bags? I told you, the US/EU/UK complex has been playing you... The worst offender has been the EU. They have done the most damage, followed by the Bernank.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 09:46 | 946013 financeguru500
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Lol, and China thought they had the ace up their sleeves with the amount of T-bills they were holding. China's best bet at this point would be to halt exports to the U.S. entirely claiming that U.S. has misused the leadership position of having the reserve currency. Then continue to export to countries that China actually needs imports from such as oil producing countries and agricultural/commodity countries.

Anything short of this will spell economic disaster for China as the U.S. exports its inflation to them.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 10:28 | 946094 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Indeed. China has recently (within the past 7-8 years) had this cocky attitude toward the US/EU/UK. They felt their "model" of authority (communism with a twist) was finally succeeding and the US was losing- after all, the US was borrowing money from THEM.

What you says is so incredibly accurate and my point except that at this point in time, I'd have to truly pass the blame entirely on the EU first, then the US second for covering over the EU's transgressions. China should be looking at the EU for their inflation and the US for allowing/aiding it to happen.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 10:50 | 946172 financeguru500
financeguru500's picture

That is really interesting. I hadn't thought about how the EU plays into things until now. What do you think the role of the U.S. has been in regards to keeping the EU afloat?

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 11:06 | 946250 Jack H Barnes
Jack H Barnes's picture

In 2008, the US provided Europe with Trillions, yes TRILLIONS in liquidity provisions.  Europe is an expensive call girl.  She looks great, dresses expensive, and has a liquidity problem bigger than most coke heads have a cash flow problem.

China somehow believed that in one generation they learned more about capitalism, than everyone else. 

This is going to end ugly...

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 11:21 | 946308 financeguru500
financeguru500's picture

Thanks for the explanation Jack.

 

So basically if we (the U.S.) go down, were taking the EU with us. Personally I think we will see things get bad in China before they do here.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 11:42 | 946382 jus_lite_reading
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The US never liked the idea of another world power but they went with it and came to the same bullshit conclusion- mutually assured destruction would occur if the Fed did not provide the EU with untold TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS (ranges from $4T-20TRILLION) from the period of 2008 to now. No one knows for sure the amount but I can assure you, China and developing nations will feel the wrath of the EU's exported inflation.

 

Indeed, the EU is first to blame, then the US for aiding and making it worse.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:28 | 947027 sschu
sschu's picture

We have been begging China to let their currency float and they have been reluctant to do so.  They are so invested in their mercantilist export model that they have refused to see what was heading right at them, debasement of the USD and therefore inflation at home in China. 

Would it not make sense for them to increase their buying power by allowing their currency to appreciate?  Does the rest of the world really have the capacity to make all the stuff they sell?  Are they risking huge social unrest because their food and oil are priced in dollars and such a high percentage of their middle class income is used to pay for food?

Maybe I am missing something, but wouldn't be in their best long-term interests to hand the inflation back to their international customers?

I agree with the poster below, they are being worked by the masters.

sschu

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 08:54 | 945912 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Just imagine how the rest of the world markets would react on such a move.

That could blowtorch my silver investment!

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 09:35 | 945986 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

ZH has been talking about this for a long time now but it's finally here-

http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2011/02/09/biggest-sc...

Notice the words- BIGGEST SCAM IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD-

An AMAZING fact: The Federal bailout is more than the cost of the First World War, the Second World War, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, Marshall Plan,  the New Deal, the Invasion of Iraq, and landing on the moon COMBINED!

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 11:04 | 946180 lesterbegood
lesterbegood's picture

Actually, the above-mentioned article just scratches the surface of the BIGGEST SCAM IN THE HISTORY OF CIVILIZATION.

Wanna go much deeper into the rabbit hole?

http://barefootsworld.net/usfraud.html

http://republicoftheunitedstates.org

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 11:39 | 946363 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

I've done enough research to know the whole world is going to hell in a handbasket in a few months if not weeks. The Bernank just confirmed it today.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 21:01 | 948050 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

I agree with you, I think this year is going to be crazy.  You can't keep a hot market like this going for to long without it burning out completely, especially with close to 15 Trillion dollars in hot money.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 18:19 | 947720 Dicite justitiam
Dicite justitiam's picture

wow, barefoot is a bit over the top if you ask me.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:41 | 947065 sschu
sschu's picture

Good stuff, thanks.  I have read (and will try to locate the link) where some think the Fed/USG created as much as $20 Trillion in late 2008 to avert a total financial collapse.  This is the real canary in the coal mine.  Who did it, how did it happen, under what authority and where are the $$ now? 

This cannot be disclosed as some very high up people would end up swing from trees or face to face with Madam Dufarge.  Do you think Hank Paulson has bought one of those luxury submarines and has a plan to bug out in literally minutes?  :-)

sschu 

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 08:55 | 945913 max2205
max2205's picture

You mean China price per sq ft of 100,000 is overvalued. Damn

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 08:59 | 945918 Sudden Debt
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But a real estate crash in China wouldn't affect Ying and Yang Doe that much.

Wealth is more concentrated over there.

But a lot of common people do trade stocks in China, and question is how big is the influence of the real estate market in the Chinese stock market.

And if it all would crash....

 

YING & YANG DOE WILL HIT THE STREETS WITH A VENGEANCE!!

YELLOW POWER!!

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 09:07 | 945937 Popo
Popo's picture

When the average annual income is $4000?  Nah...  Nothing's wrong with that. 

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 08:55 | 945915 Michael
Michael's picture

Are you trying to tell me the prices of those 64 million vacant properties in China are going to crash? Say it isn't so.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 09:14 | 945953 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

The irony of this situation is they're still building like there is no tomorrow. I suppose they plan to fill those empty buildings with the bodies of dead rioters?

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 09:39 | 945993 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"I suppose they plan to fill those empty buildings with the bodies of dead rioters?"

Actually, since they have offshored all of the jobs here in America, you have to move to find employment.  They are just preparing for the boom in new Western immigrants looking for work.

Look on the bright side - with those empty building suddenly being filled with people, who will need decor, Harry Wanger's business will surely take off!

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 10:31 | 946104 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Ironic that Harry imports all of his toxic home furnishings from China, but he may actually find a larger market in China... is Harry in the business of importing plastic rice as well?

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 10:43 | 946145 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

He says that demand for his (imported) Hopium has trebled.  Now, maybe he can cultivate a regional market closer to the source (China).

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 09:02 | 945925 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Keep an eye out for dodgy local politicians selling their portfolios back the the same SOEs they bought for in the first place, leaving the banks with a bunch of toxic loans and a government guarantee that cannot be enforced.  This could get ugly.  I cannot think of a time when anyone has been able to gently deflate a bubble...

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 10:09 | 946058 three chord sloth
three chord sloth's picture

Ah yes... gently deflating a bubble. That ever-elusive soft landing. It's the only thing rarer than unicorns.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 09:05 | 945930 SashaBelov
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Maybe they are also orchestrating a 30% crash in US bond market? Or 30% drop in S&P? :)

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 09:05 | 945931 Sudden Debt
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STOCK TO SHORT:

 

TAO : Guggenheim China Real Estate

CRIC : China Real Estate Information Corporation

 

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 09:05 | 945935 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

All of my Chinese friends, who have made literally millions on the RE bubble, are very sceptical about the introduction of a property tax...I'm not saying it's not going to happen, just that I'll believe it when I see it. 

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 10:18 | 946073 blind squirrel
blind squirrel's picture

Huh?  Property taxes already started on Jan.28 this year in Shanghai and Chongqing.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 11:20 | 946302 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

This is just a "trial" and only in these two cities...it remains to be seen if this "law" is enforceable....In china a "law" is only a "law" if it is enforceable.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 12:52 | 946657 Ahmeexnal
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So is anyone willing to defy in  the Tax tank, like that lone protester in Tiananmen?

 

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 09:08 | 945938 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Short Hong Kong Reits.....

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 09:10 | 945944 AUD
AUD's picture

So on one hand the Chinese government wants to 'attack' inflation but on the other wants to devalue by bidding for USD denominated debt? International reserve assets have increased substantially in the last few months with a concurrent fall in US High Yield bond spreads & even a leveling of the USD gold price.

The Chinese have all the 'reserves' but maybe it's just coincidence.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 09:11 | 945946 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

If they wanted to slow it down, why not add no block purchases and 90 day manditory closings. I doubt the money will go anywhere else, its mostly debt and held for a few months before being resold.

 

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 09:12 | 945949 TooBearish
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I have 100% confidence the PBoC will be able to control prices...in 15 minutes

Banana B-52 Ben

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 09:16 | 945954 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Other China:

China announced a strategic reserve of their Rare Earth metals, state control over more mines.

Hoarding: 39K tonnes storage. 35% reduction in export quotas. Has 95% of the market.

 

China creates rare earth strategic reserves: report - February 9, 2011

 

Mad Max: Get your neodymium magnets to power your post-American junkyard windmills now.

 

 

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 09:15 | 945955 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Just manipulate that RMB to 2 to 1 US$.  Export all that inflation to the US and make US the peasenty who can't afford chinese made goods while the Chinese drive GMs like its going out of style.

 

 

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 09:20 | 945960 Alexmai
Alexmai's picture

My relatives live in China, they said the new policy on real estate makes people very diffcult to buy/sell a house. Not only there are incredible transaction cost, but the prevous discount for first home buyers are all gone. However, the prices of house still stay subborn high despite these policy. I fear that Chinses is already can't control the real estate bubble. Besides, inflation is unblievebly high. The price of foods go up almost every week! Going out for a dinner at any restaurant is almost would cost one's entire monthly income. The innocent people are now paying for the cost of speculation caused by the housing investors. The living condition is devastating. People are not talking about the lifestyle anymore.

The banks in china lent out trillions of RMB since the 2008 crisis. I believe it explains a little who is buying the stocks. the interest rate in china will soon to jump by 1 or 2 percent. People in china are saying that "even interest rate shoot up to 20%, it will take at least 1 year for price to start going down. " That's what I heard from my relatives. My hometown is in Nanning, China. Hope it helps.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 09:40 | 946000 synonym
synonym's picture

Interesting. Always useful to get a view from those on the ground. Thanks Alex

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 09:46 | 946015 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

You can't force the Chinese to sell as long as they can afford to hold.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 10:26 | 946091 blind squirrel
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@Alexmai.  That's my understanding, too.  Government measures only seem to reduce sales volume - they don't have too much effect on price decline.  I take this headline with a grain of salt.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 09:29 | 945980 MonsterBox
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Think any of our QE1 and QE2 cash is indirectly fueling this Chinese RE bubble?

More, do the Chinese recognize we're responsible with our principle export product being inflation?

And better yet, "Wadda ya gonna do about, chink?"  (no offense, of course)

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 09:36 | 945990 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

The typical naive, government-trusting, childlike white American does not realize the extent of the gangsterism and corruption in the PRC; they also do not realize how much money is frothing around among the higher-ups.  I could a tale unfold but will save bytes here.

Now that money will froth out of RE.  Whether or not they succeed in a 30% drop (sounds absurd), the top is being put in.  Where else will the money go, is the question.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 09:43 | 946006 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"Where else will the money go, is the question."

 

PM's?

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 10:14 | 946064 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

When an debt fuelled asset bubble collapses, the "money" simply vanishes....

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 10:24 | 946086 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"When an debt fuelled asset bubble collapses, the "money" simply vanishes..."

Except if they leveraged that asset in order to preserve its value.

Consider taking out a HELOC or cash-out refi in 2006-2007 in order to purchase PM's.  Then, default on the HELOC and/or Primary Mortgage and sit on the PM's.  When the crisis blows over, convert the PM's back into RE, albeit at a lower square footage, but unencumbered none the less.

Can't/won't happen you say?  I've seen it first hand.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 11:51 | 946421 hardcleareye
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How about into purchasing  food?

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 09:50 | 946023 RagnarDanneskjold
RagnarDanneskjold's picture

The property tax is about creating a stable source of income for the government. It's a tax that will allow the local governments to stop relying on land sales and is part of the larger goal of expanding the domestic economy? deflating the real estate bubble is not the intention.

Over Spring Festival I noticed literally dozens of high rises being built in several cities only a few hours south of Beijing, this is part of Hebei province's big 3-year makeover that started in 2008 (pre-crisis). As for the drought, I drove over a large river in one small city, it was bone dry. According to the news, there has only been 2mm of precipitation since November. In Beijing, I have not seen any precipitation since late October.

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