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China Surpasses US As Largest Energy Consumer; World Has 46.2 Year Of Proved Oil Reserves; Crude Has Lots Of Upside In Real Terms

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Wed, 06/08/2011 - 10:44 | 1350788 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Oh goody....

Not only a thread on WWII, a bonus peak oil thread...

 

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 10:52 | 1350828 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'm sorry. Was there somebody holding a gun to your head forcing you to read them?

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 11:28 | 1351010 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Not at all... they are two topics that I relish debate on...I am blessed by an abundance of riches...

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 10:59 | 1350876 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

III

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 11:22 | 1350975 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Does not look pretty , maybe its time for the Martians to escape

www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTiq2YU8b5c

 

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 11:35 | 1351045 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Oh goody....

 

Oh bady...

Issue with the article is that China oil consumption can not be treated as the US oil consumption.

This is a US world order and the world is organized to allow US citizens in their current standard of life.

Chinese work quite a lot for US citizens and their oil consumption exist to maintain that feature.

Ultimately, the US oil consumption based on calculation within national borders could sink and sink while other areas of the world could see theirs increase but the oil consumption could still be done in order to support the US way of life.

Until the Chinese really start to consume oil for themselves and enable themselves in a Chinese way of life, nothing to be seen, only the US concealing their oil consumption by outsourcing it.

The US consumption of resources is vastly underestimated in this US world order as the world is organized to support US citizens in their lavish life style.

Accurate accounting should include all the oil consumption done by the Chinese (and the rest!) in order to provide the material conditions for the US way of life in the US.

Of course repelled by the US as it would show what blob the US is on the back of the rest of the world (not that the current figures are any good in this regard already)

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 15:58 | 1352150 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Well, the headline notion that we have "46.2" years of oil reserves is horseshit.

Existing fields will not continue to produce at the peak rate until they are EMPTY.  Oil wells don't work like that.

Peak production on a well or field does not start at day 0 and proceed until complete depletion.

Production rises, hits a maximum, and then declines.  Extraction rates are not level.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 17:04 | 1352442 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

their extraction analysis is almost as good as their safety record

Thu, 06/09/2011 - 04:37 | 1353881 tonyw
tonyw's picture

It is unfortunate that in the ZH article up top that phrase is highlighted and suggests we can continue for another 46.2 years.

As you say production rises to a peak then falls, not a perfect bell curve but you get the picture. For sure BP know that but this ratio is always given and is a useful insight. Since around 1985 the ratio has been above 40 and below 50. Incidentally BP have been producing their excellent report for 60 years.

 

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 10:45 | 1350789 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

World proved oil reserves in 2010 were sufficient to meet 46.2 years of global production, down slightly

 

The trouble is cost of production. Both in terms of money and energy now.  If the oil is on the moon, it's gonna cost. Same way super deep water rigs, oil sands and new onshore technologies are expensive. There may be some soda pop at the bottom of that glass, but it takes a whole lotta sucking to get it up through that straw. 

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 10:58 | 1350844 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Throw in wars and turmoil in the places most of the oil comes from.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 16:02 | 1352184 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Indeed SD1.
And let us not forget Deepwater Horizon, an ongoing disaster.

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/06/11/deepwater-thinking/

ORI

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 11:00 | 1350856 redpill
redpill's picture

And at some point it costs more oil to get it than you yield. But the shit will have already hit the fan by then.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 11:04 | 1350909 Dreadker
Dreadker's picture

Also that is AT CURRENT RATES.... 46.2 years factoring zero growth for the next 46.2 years on a global scale... Good luck with that oil dependent world lol

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 11:12 | 1350929 tmosley
tmosley's picture

The US will be doing its part, as our economy is about to shrink by about 2/3rds, due to the economic consequences of MONETARY POLICY.

That will take a lot of pressure off.  Other than the US and India, most nations produce enough oil to meet their own needs.  When our economy collapses, we will once again be in the position of being a net energy exporter, more than likely.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 11:15 | 1350959 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"When our economy collapses, we will once again be in the position of being a net energy exporter, more than likely."

Yep, and we will either become wealthy again as a net energy exporter or become invaded.  Hedge accordingly.  Either way, with a fraudulent monetary and economic system and true price discovery and asset valuation being a total sham, possession of physical assets of real value (that can not be manipulated by harvard economists) will become the law.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 11:21 | 1350986 IslandMan
IslandMan's picture

 

..."Most nations produce enough oil to meet their own needs."

 

tmosley - that is complete bullshit, and you know it.  Of the approx 190 nations, how many produce enough oil to meet their own needs ? 

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 11:16 | 1350951 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

As the US goes bankrupt the rest of the world can world can buy more oil without increasing current aggregate consumption rates.  It won't keep up 46.2 years but it will last longer than USD hegemony. 

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 10:52 | 1350791 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

Statistical analysis originating from an oil company (BP lulz) concerning oil futures, should not only be considered lies.. but damned lies.

ZH clearly has the pumps ON for oil.... have to wonder why.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 10:52 | 1350814 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Because Goldman is "long"

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 10:51 | 1350826 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Im confused. I played this message backwards an heard I buried Paul

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 10:54 | 1350837 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

In Goldman we trust?

Shouldn't we be thinking they are selling oil...

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 11:00 | 1350852 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well you can believe theyre selling oil...I think its going up.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 11:37 | 1350869 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

a vast pool of derivative oil calls to choose from.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 11:00 | 1350879 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Precisely. After taking on the Fed it may be time to take on the Squid

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 11:15 | 1350958 falak pema
falak pema's picture

does this 46 year time line include non conventional oil reserves? Like Orenoco?

I can't see the graphic clearly on my comp!

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 16:38 | 1352318 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

This brings great joy to me. Slaughter those pigs.

It's time to get in the streets people. MENA is doing their thing, and Europe is starting to get rolling. Are we going to let them show US how to protest? Yea yea, the sheep don't know better and won't get off their asses...unless they see other's doing it. The rage is in the air, just talk to anyone you know and see how angry they are( http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-06-04/anger-in-ameri... ). All it takes is a few leaders to show the masses the time is now.

http://www.pacificfreepress.com/news/1-/8870-american-revolution-20-on-j...

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 11:15 | 1350960 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Tha'ts what he is saying I think... if GS is short then lets pump oil as high as we can kinda thing.  lol

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 16:07 | 1352190 reload
reload's picture

I`m doing my bit - the fun way (while it lasts) Ferrari F430 London to Le Mans tomorrow to watch the 24 hr race over the weekend . Plus I get to spend some Euro paper as well!   

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 10:51 | 1350824 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Because its going up, 66Sexy.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 10:55 | 1350825 That Peak Oil Guy
That Peak Oil Guy's picture

BP's Statistical Review is actually the best compilation of worldwide energy data out there, despite their industry position.

Oil is oxygen to the economy, which is why ZH is so interested.

TPOG

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 11:14 | 1350955 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong.

Oxygen is oxygen to the economy.  Oil is food.  There are other types of food, but this one is a staple FOR NOW.  Just as charcoal once was, just as firewood once was, just as wheat once was (ie human labor).

Peak oilers LOVE to claim that oil is like oxygen, because there is NO replacement for oxygen.  But there ARE replacements for oil.  They might not be great, but we have lived without oil before, and we can do it again, if such drastic measures were necessary.  Just like we can live without wheat.  It might be difficult, and expensive, but it can be done.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 11:41 | 1351083 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

But we can't live without oil the way we live with oil. Many people have to go, also, since we are children of the oil age.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 13:43 | 1351586 Texas Gunslinger
Texas Gunslinger's picture

and there is Tmosely-claven.....   straight out of the starting gate, flat on his face.

When did we live without oil?  What year?  What was the world population, US population and US GDP? 

This is yet another example of a goofy, archaic, anarchic mindset that has absolutely no relevance to modern economies and populations and growth of current scale. Then again, I don't really think Tmosely is a true anarcho-capitalist because he openly admits to living off of government grants and handouts. 

 

 

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 11:49 | 1351122 That Peak Oil Guy
That Peak Oil Guy's picture

You're right, it is more like food.  But I am happy to see that you have come around a bit more on the whole peak oil subject since you first told me this.  :-)

TPOG

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 12:14 | 1351209 Toxicosis
Toxicosis's picture

Sure we can live without oil.  But not with a population of 7 billion.  One billion maybe, 7 not a chance.  We are a hydrocarbon dependent race, more than any other species combined.  Sure we can live without wheat, and I guess we can live without corn as well.  And then I guess we can live without meat, since they're ain't no corn to feed the chickens and cows there too pa.  Tmosley you are a true 'believing' troll, idealistic with fantastical delusions of grandeur.  To run modern societies requires extensive availability of hydrocarbon fuel.  Maybe we should just kill ourselves a few more whales to prove your point once we reach the $300-400 dollar mark in conventional and non-conventional oil, just so you're satisfied that replacements exist.  Hydrocarbon energy is not electricity.

This is a list of some of the products made from oil. Nearly everything in our lives is made from oil, made by machinery and systems dependent on oil, and transported by oil as either gas or diesel fuel.

 

Ammonia, Anesthetics, Antihistamines, Artificial limbs, Artificial Turf, Antiseptics, Aspirin, Auto Parts, Awnings, Balloons, Ballpoint pens, Bandages, Beach Umbrellas, Boats, Cameras, Candles, Car Battery Cases, Carpets, Caulking, Combs, Cortisones, Cosmetics, Crayons, Credit Cards, Curtains, Deodorants, Detergents, Dice, Disposable Diapers, Dolls, Dyes, Eye Glasses, Electrical Wiring Insulation, Faucet Washers, Fishing Rods, Fishing Line, Fishing Lures, Food Preservatives, Food Packaging, Garden Hose, Glue, Hair Coloring, Hair Curlers, Hand Lotion, Hearing Aids, Heart Valves, Ink, Insect Repellant, Insecticides, Linoleum, Lip Stick, Milk Jugs, Nail Polish, Oil Filters, Panty Hose, Perfume, Petroleum Jelly, Rubber Cement, Rubbing Alcohol,  Shampoo, Shaving Cream, Shoes, Toothpaste, Trash Bags, Upholstery, Vitamin Capsules, Water Pipes, Yarn

 

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 13:03 | 1351407 gorillaonyourback
gorillaonyourback's picture

exactly, loose oil and its toast for the environment with this many people on it, we would be cutting trees down like mad men

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 17:42 | 1352597 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

yep, just like during the great depression, trees, the general enviroment, wildlife, all decimated.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 13:47 | 1351595 Texas Gunslinger
Texas Gunslinger's picture

oops.  Just saw your post.  I said basically the same thing.  Sorry about repeating it. 

 

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 15:55 | 1352134 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

This is also going to be the first time in human history where we will have to deal with future energy availability going down on a global basis.  Oil has/had the highest EROEI of any source in history.  Transitioning from the 21st Century to an 18th Cent. equivelent will be much harder than the ride up from the 18th to the 21st.

Look at the cultures that have had energy/resource collapses happen locally and you will see disaster after disaster [See Tainter, The Collapse of Complex Societies]. 

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 17:30 | 1352451 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

the collapse of complex societies...with simple minds

Good post

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 10:49 | 1350793 serndipity
serndipity's picture

How can that be?

China makes TVs while Americans watch TVs.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 10:49 | 1350798 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Prelude to WWIII.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 13:23 | 1351485 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Exactly.

46 years of oil - then throw in mechanized food production, synthetic fertilizers and herbicides/pesticides, with the need for pumping/moving/purifying water - and WWIII over oil is inevitable.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 10:48 | 1350810 TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

If you play games with reserves and FX rates, you can make a weak case that China will be world's largest economy before 2015. What does the world look like with America displaced as Number One? Not sure. US will remain the richest nation, in the sense that the average American has 10 times as much disposable income than Chinese, and that will not change for several more decades.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 10:58 | 1350861 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Income' wow that can change at the drop of a hat. 30% unemployment and americans have good wages? I guarantee that will change soon. 

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 11:02 | 1350891 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

"average American has 10 times as much disposable income"...at current exchange rates

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 11:21 | 1350970 tmosley
tmosley's picture

EXACTLY.  Monetary games are coming to a close.  The paper that we have stored abroad will now swamp our shores once again, and we will have hyperinflation.

It looks like a "temporary", "technical" default has been added as one of the many triggers for this event, and it looks like its a hair trigger.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 11:32 | 1351032 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

you mean you can't just keep promising people you'll give them something of value in exchange for their goods and labor?  

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