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China Surpasses US As Largest Energy Consumer; World Has 46.2 Year Of Proved Oil Reserves; Crude Has Lots Of Upside In Real Terms
In its just released must read Statistical Review of World Energy, BP has many critical observations, the key of which, while not a surprise to most, is that as of 2010, the US is no longer the world's biggest consumer of energy. The new leader, with a 20.3% share of global energy consumption: China. Keep in mind that the Chinese economy is still (in whatever centrally planned terms it discloses) not even half the size of the US, thus one can only imagine how far this number will rise should China ultimately succeed in its goal of converting from an export-led to a consumer-led society. And here we have a market worried about a few million bpd in quota courtesy of the now defunct OPEC. From the report: "World primary energy consumption – which this year includes for the first time a time series for commercial renewable energy – grew by 5.6% in 2010, the largest increase (in percentage terms) since 1973. Consumption in OECD countries grew by 3.5%, the strongest growth rate since 1984, although the level of OECD consumption remains roughly in line with that seen 10 years ago. Non-OECD consumption grew by 7.5% and was 63% above the 2000 level. Consumption growth accelerated in 2010 for all regions, and growth was above average in all regions. Chinese energy consumption grew by 11.2%, and China surpassed the US as the world’s largest energy consumer. Oil remains the world’s leading fuel, at 33.6% of global energy consumption, but oil continued to lose market share for the 11th consecutive year." And in terms of production reserves: "World proved oil reserves in 2010 were sufficient to meet 46.2 years of global production, down slightly from the 2009 R/P ratio because of a large increase in world production; global proved reserves rose slightly last year. An increase in Venezuelan official reserve estimates drove Latin America’s R/P ratio to 93.9 years – the world’s largest, surpassing the Middle East."
There is much more in the full report, but three charts bear highlighting: the reserves-to-production ratio, the relative pricing of crude in real terms, and the major trade movement of Crude in the world in 2010. Bottom line: crude likely has a long way to go up unless the global economy promptly commences another 2008 mega deflationary episode.
Reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios:
And Real crude Prices since the Pennsylvania Oil Boom:
World trade movements of crude:
And the full booklet:
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Oh that was very funny and so correct. Thanks I needed a chuckle
My bad. I should have said they can always just increase proven reserves estimates. I apologize.
You know, we still have this massive military. If we weren't afraid to use it, we could probably still take over the world. I don't advocate that. But, we sit in the middle. It doesn't make any sense to invade a country and then nation build. Just take the resources. Either be an empire or don't be one. Being in the middle is just stupid.
Although, I suppose nuclear weapons kind of keep that in check. But, at the same time, America and the Soviet Union used to light off nuclear weapons like fireworks. The planet can absorb nuclear detonations. As long as we didn't try to take over any of the big boys, we could do it. No one would dare stop us with our nuclear arsenal. Well, now I don't even know what I'm talking about.
Black tar heroin will be the end of me.
Have a good day, everyone.
Good thinking going on in your brain. Keep up the heroin...seems to suit you.
Technology increases efficiency, allowing you to do more and more, with less and less. The limit of this function is that you can do EVERYTHING with NOTHING.
For example, you talk about how oil has allowed us to increase the population of the Earth. This is true, the population would not have grown that fast without the use of oil and oil-based agricultural products. But here's the funny part--humans are thinking creatures. Oil is important NOW, just like whale oil was important for lighting a hundred and fifty years ago, and how charcoal was important for smelting steel back then as well. Those things hit peak production, and we switched to new technology. Technologies that were initially much more expensive, but with investment and volume came increase efficiency and lower prices. The same thing will occur in the future.
Stop demanding death. The cult of death, which has taken root on ZH, desires that above all things. They HATE technological advance. They see the past, and they think that things can exist no other way, like driving by looking in the rear view mirror, and claiming that all that road cost so much to produce, it will have to end some time, and we'll probably run off a cliff! But the road keeps going. They might run off of it, because they weren't looking ahead, but the road doesn't end. It turns, and moves around obstacles.
Technology does not necessarily increase efficiency, it does however enable for the increased rate of consumption. You may want to brush up on Jevon's Paradox....
Genetic modification.
TM is a believer in the Ayn Rand paradox. He is by nature impervious to the implications of Jevon's paradox. As this implies to curb a natural incremental consumption trend that depletes natural resources dangerously the answer is to impose qualitative constraints that are not subject to the Jevon paradox. But this is planned constraint and heresy to free, free, free market Ayn Randian logic.
shorthand: tmosely-claven is an idiot
I thought this was supposed to happen three years from now. Whew. The shoe has dropped. Now I can learn handicrafts and move to my lifeboat-economic town of 5-10,000 people.
Move? Wouldn't it be more "entertaining" to stay in a city of 1M, like Detroit, while it transitions to a town of 5-10,000 people?
Modern agriculture is a process where oil is converted into food using land as the culture. Oil now equals food. High oil prices would drive higher food prices.
problem number one. And of course, the genius response is to convert food to the fuel tank. Food has no choice but to become more local and more organic. Is starvation organic?
Oh most definitely. Even the end loop in food, trucks to get it to stores, is a huge factor in food prices.
Not to mention the large machinery and delivery trucks required to get it where it ain't already, which would also get more expensive.
They'll get it when there are John Deere parked on every freeway on-ramp in DC in protest...maybe.
Modern society is a process where oil is converted into _____.
You can't run society with 90% of the oil it needs, either you have 100% or demand keeps exceeding supply, crashing economies. Each crash is followed by a reset to lower level. After a few crashes economic paradigm stops working. Outside the industrial model oil is just so much toxic waste. The end.
"oil is just so much toxic waste", I think oil is a fabulous substance provided by our environment naturally through natural processes that have been going on forever relative to our time frame. My preference is sweet South Texas Cretaceous, full bodied, nice bouquet.
Not really. MODERN agriculture is predicated on this, where giant, industrial farms produce food to be shipped around the world.
Higher oil prices will simply put these guys out of business, and cause a resurgence in small, local farms. Prices will be higher, but once they reach a critical point, where most of the production has shifted to local sources, the price rise (in real terms) will stop, and likely reverse as more and more people return to farming.
you are a goddamned idiot...you really think this food just grows itself, don't you? You have utterly no clue as to the astounding increase in crop yields permitted by industrial (oil) agriculture.
We EAT oil. That is a fact.
All economies require energy (in whatever form that may be) to run, even more to grow.
Add to this a fraudulent economic and monetary system (which is what we have now) where true price discovery and asset valuation is a total sham. I expect that possession of physical assets of real value will rapidly become 100% of the law. hedge accordingly, that is really all anyone can do anyway. So China has gold, they need energy. As others have pointed out already. Only countries with abundant energy reserves need to worry about becoming wealthy or being invaded.
But I won't last a week without fresh clean drinking water. Earth most precious resource.
even animals fight (uncommonly) to the death over that
No kidding, but the argument remains the same. Why would I sell you any of my fresh water (or any other resource) for any amount of gold if I know that there is a shortage and I might not even have enough for my own interests?
The outcome remains the same. If the BRICs can not buy the resources then they will be forced to take it.
Shock and Awe
Watch the coming shock and awe when they announce they found a solution overnight, and that was seizing everyones pensions and 401k's. I expect that to happen any day now, in fact theyre already doing it.
Unrelated...MSM looks to be making E coli the next pandemic story. Tornadoes must've run their course.
http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2011/06/e-coli-kills-virginia-child.html
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/europe/06/08/germany.e.coli.produce/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
...and ag complex has gone due north. I have no sense of correlation, just pointing out info.
Another peak oil bullshit thread. Enough of this.
Didn't you see Exxon/Mobil found another 700 million barrels in th Gulf of Mexico today.
Please people.....Peak OIL is Bullshit.
Let the junks begin......
that is precisely nine days of current world consumption...Nine days not nine and a half weeks...AND, there is NO Kim Basinger at the end of the line!
Capito? You clown!
I don't junk...
You are aware that Exxon has replaced 95% its reserves that it pumped over the last decade and you are aware that without the XTO takeover that they replaced 45% of their pumped reserves in 2010?
The numbers would be even more dire if not for the SEC changing the definition of Tar Sands to proven reserves....
Google Exxon Reserve Replacement and dig away...
Don't confuse him with facts Flac.
Waste of time.
Don't give me the meaningless reserve numbers bullshit.
HOW MANY BPD ?
What's the Flow Rate baby?
That pesky SEC. It's almost as if they work for those they regulate. How do you regulate a regulator? How irregular
.
Peak oil is the new global warming for those that were late in figuring out that global warming is bunk.
I'll see if I can take some of your junks, curb. :D
I won't dignify your moronic statement with a junk...
Maybe you and Curbyourclownface can meet up for a circle jerk. Don't forget the box of Kleenex...
You flaunt almost as if you know something about the topic. Stats & stuff you quote are all conditioned on the world as it is currently restricted in terms of E&P.
"Peak oilers" look at petro constraints in terms of corporate reserves (proved to spec) and political boundaries. Either of those arbitrary limits are unrelated to the reality of the sea of hydrocarbons upon which the crust sits. There is more oil and natural gas in the parts of Russia currently deemed "economically untouchable" than you can imagine.
So go keep digging for the "info" and mouthing off like the four-year-old that we know you are.
Ah.... your schtick is exposed...
Folks we got ourselves a Abiotic oil guy....
Remarkable how it is only found in Russia? Also remarkable how every oil field ever found has clear biological markers....
Don't you have some Kleenex to fetch?
Nice try, hack. I didn't expose myself as an "abiotic," which I understand is the only 3-syllable word the peak oil worshippers can muster about "non-believers" (i.e., the logical crowd).
Nor did I confine things to Russia (just used it as an example).
When you're done being fixated on others reproductive juices, maybe do some research about petroleum reserve estimates being a function of economics and regulation.
BTW, sarcarsm only works when it's rooted in what your target originates. When you revise statements and then ascribe your weak attempts at pot-shots, you graduate to a self-effacing moron.
Maybe you could explain how these "underground seas of hydrocarbons" in Russia have not let the Russians significantly increase production in 5 years or why they are drilling in the Kara Sea and the Sakhalins (and not getting the results hoped for) or why their great Siberian field Samotlor is in decline?
Let me guess, regulation caused the US and the North Sea to peak? Not to mention about 60 other countries. Maybe you should do some serious research on petroleum reserve and flow estimates.. Give me a call then and we can talk...
Edit: And as an added bonus, I'll take you to school on global warming as well.. It will have to wait as I have some errands to run... It is also clear that you do have to ability to express yourself, I suggest you use it and do not be surprised when you are called out for egregious stupid content free posts...
"regulation" also makes those middle eastern countries lie about their reserves
Are you saying you're a believer in man-made global warming? Do you complete the trifecta with a statue of Darwin? Are you a card-carrying member of the Club of Rome, the ACLU, and the Sierra Club?
Evolution, peak oil, global warming - apostate religions intended to subjugate liberty, individual responsibility, and capitalism.
Best wishes in your pursuit of truth.
You certainly showed your hand. I suggest you fold and wait for the next deal.
Best wishes in your pursuits.... I think you are in for a rude surprise or two along the way though...
I'll take you to school on global warming as well..
You argue only what you can misdirect. Self aggrandizing quant that will show you how the fit of the Wiebull distribution "proves" something, but is wholly clueless on inference and market behaviors. I know your type because I've managed/corrected a hundred of them in my lifetime.
But, but, but, the data says...
I'm waiting on your global warming retort. You skipped it when I called you out on it. Since the data's been debunked (for those who thought it might not be a myth in the first place), I'm interested in your take as to what motivates the purists to believe the myth.
Anytime, now.
This is an old dead thread.... I am not going to type a bunch of stuff that will disappear into the ether.. I know who you are, we will pick it up later..
One flawed study does not refute global warming and you have no idea "what type I am..."
del dup
"stats and stuff are all conditioned on the world as it is currently restricted" - does he mean like gravity and stuff? or just other laws of physics?
Gravity is one of those things that physicists have failed to figure out (go check). Puts a little wrench in extrapolating string theory.
Last I checked, Hubbert's curve is an extrapolation of an estimate, not a proven law of physics. Kinda like evolution is a theory with absolutely zero evidence of a single species having evolved from any other.
Subscribe to the religion, and all of the evidence suddenly validates it.
Maybe you should check a little deeper...
Hubberts curve is a simplification of more general class of functions...you may want to read up on things here
http://mobjectivist.blogspot.com/2011/01/oil-conundrum.html
As for gravity, we understand gravity well enough to know what happens just about everywhere except the Planck scale. Try not to be a smart-ass, you may be underestimating the physics credential of your debate partner...
The numbers supporting 46 years of reserves are phony. While they are roughly accurate for companies in the west, in OPEC there is a policy that your "proved reserves" are a significant factor in the calculation of your quota. This resulted in many of the OPEC countries doubling their "proved reserves" in one year.
I shall indulge a moment here to explain why electric this and that is all bullshit.
A horsepower is 745 watts, sports fans, and a Camry has a 170 horsepower in it. (FYI, the trucks that bring food to your grocery store shelves are 400 horsepower. Make it 450 for a John Deere agricultural tractor that brings food from the fields to the trucks.)
170 X 745 is 127 kilowatts.
400 X 745 is 298 kilowatts.
450 X 745 is 335 kilowatts.
Drive that Camry for an hour and you use 127 kilowatt-hours.
A watt is a voltXampere.
A typical car battery is 12 Volts and 40 ampere-hours stored. Thats 12X40 = 480 watt hours in the big heavy thing. That's all. Not kilowatt hours. Watt hours. Absurd electric cars lift the voltage to a few hundred to get the amperes in the cables down (so they don't melt) and when they are done all that, with those huge batteries aboard, they get only 40 miles out of them with an overnight recharge and a $7000 battery replacement in 5 years.
That's to do a lot less than a Camry can do.
An 18 wheeler is inconceivable.
It's all bullshit. This is why oil is the alpha asset and this is why so many are going to die. Soon.
Very good input and data Crash...thanks.
Wow, what a lot of bullshit.
Electric motors are far, far, FAR more efficient than internal combustion engines. Further, Zinc-air batteries have energy densities that are the SAME AS LIQUID FUELS. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zinc–air_battery
Your strawman about how heavy lead acid batteries doesn't hold up to even the most cursory inspection. You need to stop fucking lying, you little shit. NO-ONE uses lead acid batteries for this purpose, you fucking retard. They use lithium batteries now, and will be using zinc-air batteries in the future.
But you peak oilers don't want to hear about that. You just want death.
Death is coming whether anyone wants it or not. Peak stupidity and the very real constriction of supply chains for numerous other resources is already here. Oil won't be the catalyst. There will be plenty of oil left in the ground because the cost to extract it will make it non-profitable. We are all "free market" people here, right? No business should be allowed to exist that doesn't make a profit right? Let the bad business models die already so that we all get on with evolution. We had a chance to prosecute the fraud and let true price discovery sort this all out, we all decided to let the fraud continue. Possession of physical assets is rapidly becoming 100% of the law, at least in my neck of the woods.
good for you tm, not part of the roll-over and show your arse brigade
synthetic diesel and ucg-power stations is the future
Do a computation where we get 4 mmbpd from CTL and GTL:
1) Use an optimistic resource base
2) A realistic turn on time
3) Estimated decline in crude production
Now before you make a bigger fool of yourself, go hit your bong again...
BTW, if CTL or GTL is profitable at oil at $35, how come everyone is not rushing out to do it?
yes they are 'rushing out to do it' as per what i posted above, peadoby, fording, obama clean energy task force good enough for you? - oh of course you are a genius and know more than that lot?
didnt think so...
Whiney little bastard aren't you....
Oh, I don't doubt that those companies are interested, after all it is the goal of the USAF to secure 1 mmbpd of CTL-GTL by 2016 or so for "security purposes", price be damned. What you seeing is the MIC reacting to the peak. And don't think for a minute that the average person is going to benefit by this...
Can you please provide a reference for the $30 a barrel figure? If it the one that I am aware of, you clearly didn't look at the assumptions very closely.
stop it! syntroleum leaders in fischer tropsch! You stick with it flak!
http://www.lincenergy.com/data/media_news_articles/LNC-Media_Coverage-60...
The link does not provide an estimate... it is statement by a CEO and not backed up by anything.
I also see that they are planning a whopping 5000-6000 bpd facility... (they are currently producing "a couple of thousand litres per day")
Using this company as a means of refuting the implications of Peak Oil are fucking hilarious...
You are definately a shill and I need to add the monicker "huckster" as well.
"what you see is the MIC reacting to the peak" They were one of the first to talk about it (behind closed doors).
and he is on this site so you would think he knows to be a little suspicious of company "reports"
goes to show that meeting companies rather than counting dingleberries is a good idea!
companies lie a lot...technology analysis based on proven data do not in general lie to a man who understands issues and methodology and has an independent mind...
/ref/biotech
i was waiting for the mention of synthetic diesel.
while it won't challenge the daily oil consumption by humans, it's the best liquid fuel replacement out there. and it can be blended up to a higher octane. you just need a manna machine to create it...
I don't think that Crash is espousing the continued wasteful use of internal combustion engines. Instead he is pointing out that electric cars are not the answer to all that some would have us believe. In lieu of throwing insults at 'peak oilers', perhaps you could explain why you think oil is not finite? Even better, why resources are infinite.
zinc-air ev batteries have been just around the corner for the last 40 years
its better than nothing if its renewable, cheap solar electricity. It will serve the individual cars on short city trips and the homes with cheaper electricity when the price of oil/gas hits 150+ oil equivalent. Point taken on the lithium or zinc route for batteries.
On this issue I would love to see Flak post his views on the "ethanol" route so touted by USA via corn and Brazil via Sugar cane. Both these routes convert ethanol to fuel in ICE (internal combustion). This is the wrong way to go! They should convert, if anything, ethanol into electricity in a grid plant and feed the grid. As the thermal primary energy efficiency of ethanol as fuel is VERY LOW compared to lithium/zinc battery! In addition, the EROI of ethanol from sugar cane is MUCH higher than from corn. This is proven fact based on land productivity comparison. So the corn to bio energy route is a two way disaster energy wise for the USA.
What do you guys think? Note that Brazil has just committed to a mega investment in the ethanol from sugar cane route!
The US corn-to-ethanol industry is their very own version of the Easter Island logging industry....
It *might* make sense of the Ethanol produced could be used as the liquid fuel for the tractors...
The corn Ethanol EROEI is lousy and not much will change it...
A few issues with this:
1) so when you drive your Camry, you are outputting 100% of the engine's power, 100% of the time? That must be a pretty exciting commute, or else you are cruising down the highway in first gear. realistically, normal driving will average a small portion of the total power the engine is capable of.
2) gasoline engines are about 30% efficient. electrics are about 90% efficient, so you can travel three times the distance with the same energy, plus you have regenerative braking.
3) no one has really used lead-acid batteries since the EV-1. modern batteries weigh far less and store way more energy. as the technology matures, prices will decline and service life increase.
4) I doubt pure electric 18 wheelers for anyhting other than short distances will be common. diesel-electrics maybe, or else mainly replaced with locamotives, which can transport nearly ten times the load for the same amount of energy as tractor-trailers over long distances.
All in all, I think your being a bit melodramatic. lower quality of life? higher percent of income spent on food? more manual labour harvesting food? sure. mass die off? probably not.
I believe all locomotives are diesel electrics, and produce about 3,000 horse power.
http://hypertextbook.com/facts/2001/RadmilaIlyayeva.shtml
Natural Gas Tankers! are a coming! there a comin!
This for curbyourrisk: Start with this........your icon is very fitting.
Poor China, ramping up right at the end of the oil age.
Poor USA, ramping up right at the end of the charcoal age.
The most important interview on oil you'll see this year -- from a Lukoil executive. Russia, not Saudi Arabia, is the world's biggest producer. He admits to 5% production decline from old fields. 5%/yr. Of Russia's 10 mbpd, that's 500K bpd or 1/2 of a Libya.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/70335328/
PBR to the moon
Just found this somewhat dated (updated 2007) presentation. It has some really good charts that I have not seen before. It is, nevertheless, very informative. Worth a look.
http://peakoil.emerald-isle.info/ppt/PeakOil-PuttingTeethIntoSustainabil... 12
If you open in IE or Firefox it should give you dialog box to download or open the ppt.
The worlds fattest energy hog produces 1/3 the Gdp compared to the largest economy. Interesting. Of course cancer and crime are gdp positive so it is a flawed measure obviously but still interesting. Can't wait to see how many head back to the fields this time around. Maybe double the fourty million that left the factories during the last oil induced crash? Of course 8 billion people will become proficient farmers without crude derived fertilizers and plowing/planting methods before crude becomes more valuable left 25,000 below the surface of the planet than extracted right? Right?
Developing new oil fields requires LOTS of oil.
Solar panel mfg requires LOTS of oil. And silver paste.
Modern agriculture requires LOTS of oil.
Building nuclear requires LOTS of oil.
Making war requires HUGE amounts of oil. And silver for electronics.
The world is not out of oil, just out of time.
Now do y'all get it?
And so it goes ...
The Chinese are sucking up oil like there is no tomorrow...mmm...come to think of it, there may not be a tomorrow?!
As Rumsfeld said,"oil is the lifeblood of the military" so don't expect oil prices to drop much as global tension rises---slow and then fast at times. Whether slow or fast, oil will rise imho.
With prices this high, oil producers are running at full capacity. This means production is as high as possible. Yet production levels are now declining. The peak is here.
The OPEC meeting - How much will production really increase?:http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8007
Oil is at full capacity but this doesn't account for huge LNG capacity coming online, in Australia there is $80 billion of capex planned and underway for just three LNG projects all due to come online in years, (Gorgon, Gladstone, Wheatstone). In Papua New Guinea there is about $15 billion in spending underway (Liquid Niugini, PNG Gas).
There is also countless billions being sunk into coal seam gas and some massive Brazillian deep sea oil projects.
The free market will yet again save the day and secure us centuries more cheap oil/gas.
So have we offshored our manufacturing capabilities to support a standing army because we have nukes or because we are going to sell out?
I am interested to see what their views will be on the massive LNG capacity coming on line within a couple years in Australia and Qatar in acting as a substitute for crude.
How do I search one of these scribd documents?
By the way it's worth mentioning that whilst USA's cooked GDP is still 250% that of China, it's exports are 15% less than the beast from the east. Producing $10 trillion of government regulation, drug enforcement and professional services doesn't really use much oil so I am not surprised to see this overtake.