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China's Dagong Sees No Threat Of Fed Monetization Ending, Believes "World Credit War" Is About To Escalate

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Starting to get doubts about QE3? Don't tell that to the official Chinese rating agency Dagong, who in traditional uber-pragmatic fashion, has the following summary observation on US monetary policy, and any imaginary changes thereto: "The second round quantitative easing policy ongoing in the United States can not change its weak domestic demand in the short term. In fact, it can only lower the interest rate of US Treasuries so as to maintain stable interest rate in the capital market in the long term, playing the indirect role of clearing some obstacles for a stable recovery. However, the plan of purchasing 600 billion US dollar Treasury bonds can not realize its predicted goal; and therefore, the United States will hardly change its predetermined monetary policy in 2011." What does this mean for China and the rest of the world: "The continuous implementation of such unconventional monetary policy in the United States will lead to the escalation of world credit war and inflict greater losses for related parties in the world credit system." Any questions?

Full selection from Dagong's report on the question of US monetary policy:

The United States, as the biggest country involved in sovereign debt crisis around the world, will continue its  quantitative easing policy when the country is in danger, and the world credit war will be escalated due to the overflow of US dollars

The second round quantitative easing policy ongoing in the United States can not change its weak domestic demand in the short term. In fact, it can only lower the interest rate of US Treasuries so as to maintain stable interest rate in the capital market in the long term, playing the indirect role of clearing some obstacles for a stable recovery. However, the plan of purchasing 600 billion US dollar Treasury bonds can not realize its predicted goal; and therefore, the United States will hardly change its predetermined monetary policy in 2011. The continuous implementation of such unconventional monetary policy in the United States will lead to the escalation of world credit war and inflict greater losses for related parties in the world credit system.

First, the trend of long-term depreciation of US dollar will result in haircut of international creditors’ debts dominated in US dollar. As the interest rate of US government debt is lowered due to the quantitative easing policy adopted by  the United States, creditors can not obtain the investment return commensurate with the risk status of US Treasuries. At the same time, the depreciation will also cause continuous exchange losses for the international creditors. Since June 2010, the US dollar has significantly depreciated compared with the currencies in emerging market countries and some developed countries, and the depreciation is 3.0% against RMB, 12% against Brazilian Real, 14% against South African Rand, 19.5% against Australian dollar and 11.4% against Korean won. The trend will continue in 2011, and international creditors will lose all their profits of the US dollars in exchange for the export income under the gradual depreciation of the currency. The behavior that the United States ignores international creditors’ legitimate interests indicates a dramatic decline of the country’s willingness to repay the debt.

Second, rapid inflow of capital will cause risks regarding inflation and asset bubbles in the emerging market countries, which is unfavorable for those countries to maintain their debt repayment credit. As a result, emerging market countries, including some developed countries and regions with good economic recovery, will have to withstand the economic and financial impact arisen from the inflow of capital in 2011. If the capital inflow exceeded the capacity that the domestic economic and financial development can absorb, some of the capital will flow over in the real estate market, capital market such as stocks and bonds and some commodity market to raise the asset price in the domestic market and eventually accelerate the inflation. Most of the countries have transferred to neutral monetary policies and will speed up the contraction of their monetary policies; however, due to the viscosity of the currency and imbalance of capital inflow in different industry, and yet the policies and measures will exert general restrictive effect on capital in the overall domestic market, the healthy development of the domestic economy will inevitably be damaged. Some Asian countries, for the purpose of eliminating the damage to the export in case of rapid currency appreciation, take some intervention measures, which bring increase of foreign reserves at a faster speed, and the consequent hedge cost is not favorable for the inflation control. While the capital retrieves quickly, the fall of asset prices will impose adverse impact on the robustness of the banks, domestic consumption and stability of the exchange rate.

Third, the issuance of US dollar encourages numerous speculative capitals into the global commodity market, leading to an increasing pressure on global inflation. The quantitative easing policy conducted by the Fed in a continuous way failed to promote the expansion of domestic credit scale; rather, the liquidity accumulated inside the financial system, in addition to flowing to foreign markets, has been used for financial speculative investment, causing surge of prices of global commodities including energy, raw materials, and foods; and almost all countries, as a result, have suffered losses arisen from the imported inflation to different extent. In EU and the eurozone countries where see the slowest recovery, the annual inflation rate has increased to 2.6% and 2.2% respectively by December 2010, the figure for countries with serious inflation, such as Romania, Greece and Hungary, has reached 7.9%, 5.2% and 4.6%  espectively.

The anti-inflation measures make the weak economic recovery even worse. In general, the capital inflow and inflation pressure that emerging market countries are experiencing will, on one side, directly affect the governments’ capacity for repaying local currency debt from the perspective of its influence on the value of local currency, and on the other side, indirectly and more seriously threaten the governments’ credit based on its adverse influence on healthy development of macro economy and financial security.

Currency system is the carrier of credit system, and therefore, the value of the currency determines the quality of credit system. International currency is the carrier of international credit system, and the instability of the currency value and the depreciation trend arisen from the over issuance make the function of the US dollar as the value scale distorted, which make other countries in the world pay an undeserved cost for their subsistence and development. The strike of shortterm capital dominated in US dollar to the emerging economics has made the excess US dollar capital become the destructive factor to the healthy economic development in different countries. The international credit system established on the basis of US dollar as the intermediary has been twisted in a way that the impartiality and reasonable aspect of the current international credit relations gradually vanish. Different countries, in order to avoid unpredictable losses on their own interests, will have to seek for adjustment of international credit relations, and the global credit war, no doubt, will become the turning point of reforming international credit relations in 2011.

Full report link

h/t Cate Long

 

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Tue, 03/29/2011 - 15:28 | 1113875 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Behind the eventual QE3 (may not be declared until Q3 or Q4) is the very clear presence of biflation in the economy. The real economy is suffering from a nearly identical syndrome to Japan since 1990: smoldering deflationary depression, with some support from exports but without 4 decades worth of private savings (in fact just the opposite). The other factor is the bloated FIRE sector which hasn't contracted along with the economy. The Fed needs to inflate the sector to keep it from downsizing. Lotsa Luck!

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 15:30 | 1113884 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

The cool thing about a world credit war is that the nuclear option will result in the end of all central banking and worthless piece of debt-- the reset button will allow a more even playing field and those elitards hell bent on enslaving the rest of the world will finally fall.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 16:07 | 1114047 zaknick
zaknick's picture

What about that new Bretton Woods all star event Rothschild ...i mean Soros organized? There are some recalcitrant elements among the 666 banksters who'd rather QE and WW3.

Gonna be an interesting year.

To those who say, "Drop the peg", why should they? So Bankster can devalue against their currency, lopping off billions in DEBT owed to the Chinese?

Dream on.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 17:05 | 1114385 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Think about that for a second.  How do they fall, they control the gold, the politicians and through them the guns?

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 15:33 | 1113890 Sweet Chicken
Sweet Chicken's picture

Should I stop making mortgage payments?

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 15:38 | 1113917 youngandhealthy
youngandhealthy's picture

FED is probably a thougher "repo man" than normal banks.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 16:19 | 1114128 Sweet Chicken
Sweet Chicken's picture

I was semi-serious. I would like a year or two off from paying mortage payments. :/

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 16:39 | 1114244 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

Being serious, I've thought about it myself many times.  The problem is, unless a massive number of people across the country do it all at once, combined, and continue not to pay until they fix the rules, you are only gonna hurt yourself.

When there is a national stop paying your mortgage from now on date set, and everyone in the country joins in, then I will be there with them.

Until then, they will just take it like they have everyone else's.  They can't foreclose on 100 million people all at once, but they can 1 or 2 here and there, and obviously have no problem doing it to people.

Unless you are underwater already, then by all means walk away!

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 16:41 | 1114268 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

If you have any equity in your home, you will just be giving free capital to the banks...  rest assured, those homes with equity are the first to be foreclosed.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 17:05 | 1114391 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Bingo, they are right on top of those. One drive by BPO and the sheriff is there...

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 15:35 | 1113900 MiningJunkie
MiningJunkie's picture

Chinese oligarchy is firmly in bed with the Wall Street owned Fed and their bribed politicians so why does this article matter? Both agendas involve suppressing the pitchforks and torches ready to swarm over the wall. The battle is between the elite and the disenfranchised.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 15:45 | 1113941 Stilicho
Stilicho's picture

Because interests that converge now may not in the future. Today's allies can become tomorrow's adversaries. Throughout history, governments have used central banking and given it special status and guarnateed profits up until the Ponzi scheme has collapsed and default became inevitable. In every case, governments have ALWAYS defaulted on their debts, which many times comes in the form of monetary debasement. The reduction of silver content in the Western Roman Denarius is the same as unlimited FED money. When it all ends, the government will take back the money power and begin printing up United States Notes again. Each US Note Dollar will be worth xxx Federal Reserve Note dollars. The US will back the US Note with its natural resources and taxation and perhaps partially with SDRs from the IMF. China will attempt to back the Yuan with gold and a system of rival currencies with no reserve currency will emerge. Exchange rates will be set by a measuring the relative purchasing power of one national currency against another in terms of its ability to purchase a basket of good including gold, oil, etc.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 17:32 | 1114508 Highrev
Highrev's picture

Either some fat heads get a clue pretty damned quick, or you can kiss reserve status goodbye.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 16:02 | 1113914 Stuart
Stuart's picture

If Donkey Kong believes his own words, lets see them act on it. 

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 15:40 | 1113929 sbenard
sbenard's picture

What does he mean by the term "world credit war"? I he referring to an intentional devaluation of U.S. Treasury debt by devaluing the dollar? Thanks in advance for any explanation!

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 15:44 | 1113940 duncecap rack
duncecap rack's picture

Those guys read zerohedge I think.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 15:49 | 1113953 SDRII
SDRII's picture

On this basis Ben/Fed/treasury has already lost

On OODA Loop - wikipedia

"

In order to win, we should operate at a faster tempo or rhythm than our adversaries--or, better yet, get inside [the] adversary's Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action time cycle or loop. ... Such activity will make us appear ambiguous (unpredictable) thereby generate confusion and disorder among our adversaries--since our adversaries will be unable to generate mental images or pictures that agree with the menacing as well as faster transient rhythm or patterns they are competing against.[3]"

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 15:48 | 1113955 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Sun Tzu...bitchez!

 

It's as simple as that.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 16:58 | 1114363 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Anyone who thinks we're outsmarting the Art of War authors is high. This is all a coded message to a Bernanke who is in very deep shit.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 17:25 | 1114476 Highrev
Highrev's picture

Sun-tzu: If your enemy is superior, evade him. If angry, irritate him. If equally matched, fight, and if not split and reevaluate.

#winning

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 15:50 | 1113958 reader2010
reader2010's picture

No, this is the PR advertising paid by the IMF. They need a global currency desparately more than ever for keeping the Grand Ponzi alive. 

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 16:08 | 1114053 css1971
css1971's picture

Well, Ponzi schemes fail because they run out of people at the bottom. They have to grow exponentially.  Think NINJA loans. So if you can expand the number of people involved by getting the whole world involved. You can enslave the entire 6 billion population of the planet.

 

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 15:51 | 1113967 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

Looks like 2011 is when the average of an individual state's revenue will cross 50% sourced from Federal Aid.

http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=385

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 15:57 | 1113970 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

So, er, when is this oil at $105 a barrel going to start to bite then? I thought the U.S. economy couldn't cope with oil above $90 a barrel. Well, a lot was said about this at the time.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 15:59 | 1113991 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

The FIRE economy doesn't care about oil prices, and the real economy has been comatose for years. High oil prices kill J6P but who cares about him? Until the truckers go out of business and food stops coming to stores, anyway.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 15:54 | 1113980 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

The chinese can tell the truth when they want to.

QE doesn't have an end; the criminal bankster/political class didn't spend the last few years propping and looting just to stop voluntarily. The game will go on until it cannot go on; the looting will go on until the end. Whether you call it QE 3 or not doesn't matter.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 18:01 | 1114624 Milestones
Milestones's picture

First time I have agreed with one of your posts. Right on.

Now I add a cavat; QE is over and the end is at hand. The shit will hit the fan--we are at a no exit.         Milestones

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 16:00 | 1113999 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Excellent! Won't see their report in MSM for sure.

Everyone should know these things by now but it is great to see it in print....thanks to you for bringing it to ZH.

 

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 16:01 | 1114013 Yield2Greatness
Yield2Greatness's picture

Might be a good idea for people to start buying some gold and silver. ;)

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 16:03 | 1114016 RichieRich
RichieRich's picture

Report? I mean seriously, this thing is barely worth the pixels I view it on. It explains nothing about bank reserves, money flows, money supply, and lending. It has pretty explicit political motives that Mr. Durden nonetheless uses to prove his conclusion that hyperinflation is on the verge of breaking out. Yea...good luck with that one.

Any besides, why do the Chinese care all of a sudden? They've had years enjoying the free ride of an undervalued currency. All of a sudden they realize that ceeded monetary control can be problematic and what do you get: BITCH BITCH BITCH.

I'm going to be smiling as when they realize, somewhere around high-rise condo #123,783,345,345 that their "economy" is a farce. 

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 16:47 | 1114294 Troublehoff
Troublehoff's picture

The way I see it.. All the unused property, superfluous infrastructure and associated credit bubble is not a problem. The credit bubble can be inflated away and then we are left with the infrastructure, the property, demographics and the system

the US and China will still truly be titans in this respect but goodbye to a huge chunk of the US and EU middle classes as the playing field is squared on the downward slope of peak oil

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 16:04 | 1114022 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

An elaborate attempt by the Party to blame the inflation in the PRC on the Americans.  The blame is true and false.  The Lao Bai Shin have no other source of information and will accept this 'news'.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 01:14 | 1115972 Creed
Creed's picture

very nice RichieR & Saxxon

 

Look at the junks.

The "miracle of China" is a sacred cow, so often repeated it's a truism now. Kinda reminds me of the global warming crowd.

America bad, China good- check.

Problem is a whole lot of people these days make their money off of Chinese slave labor & cheap products and no one wants to upset the apple cart.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 16:08 | 1114045 Reptil
Reptil's picture

Chinese militairy:

https://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/12/world/asia/12beijing.html?_r=3&hp

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9KI4BM80&show_article=1

That IMO means in plain language: We know about your secret shit and if it comes our way, expect nukes in return. Whatever the secret shit is, I'll leave to each and everyone's imagination (and current knowledge).

So I don't see any militairy escalation soon. Not with Japan in crisis.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 16:16 | 1114094 willien1derland
willien1derland's picture

This is simply an amazing post - firstly a credit agency making a plain, direct statement...I did not think that the United Brotherhood of Credit Agencies allowed such conduct - moreover, this is the first indication I have read of an upcoming world credit war...FT Alphaville had an interesting post related to the use of copper to fund property developers -

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/03/28/529196/standard-bank-says-chinese-copper-market-cause-for-concern/

Any elaboration on the world credit war from team ZH would be greatly appreciated -

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 16:24 | 1114153 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

It's nothing unusual . . . educated PRC econ types are perfectly capable of accurate analysis.  What you will never, ever see is criticism of the Party.  That makes everything they say a lie even if it is true.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 04:40 | 1116148 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

That is special. Everything they say is a lie even if it is true. Nice.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 16:44 | 1114284 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

The Fed, IMF and US (TBTF) banks' goal, by debasing the US dollar, is to destroy competing economic power houses like the EU, Japan and China.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 20:32 | 1115108 Reptil
Reptil's picture

Ah yes, this is correct, they want to make everyone their bitch, but IMHO it's more complicated than that. I think you can see strong ties inbetween the US and europe's elite and the elite of Japan and other allied nations. These remain strong in spite of any QE. It goes beyond nation state's borders in the west.

What IMHO the fallacy in the western financial elite's strategy is, that they've focussed on robbing the poor and middle class in their own countries, blowing a bubble of 20 years, calling it "free trade", while China has made serious efforts to prop up it's middle class, from the proceeds of that same "free trade" and even allow ownership of gold (and thus grant it's people some kind of economic independence from the central planning). I think they left the PM backdoor open, for some reason they did not care about China's ambitions.

China's a long way off from becoming a superpower, but I think that this signals that they are not helpless anymore against the western elite. So in gaining the upper hand (concentration of wealth) in the west; and winning the game on their own turf, the elites of the west are, paradoxally, losing the bigger game, because a country like China, with all it's problems, but with a stronger middle class is more stable in a couple of years, and can compete, like the USA has competed with anyone, after WW2. It's like the saying: He who spreads wealth will become rich, he who takes it will be poor. (or something like that - shit, it's 2.30 AM here)

The ONE big issue facing both the USA and China, is clean soil, and fresh water. Not many realise this, but that will be the deciding factor, alongside militairy, economic independence and energy of course.

No battle has been won. I do agree this is a coded message to the western elite and shit just got more interesting.

 

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 04:43 | 1116150 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

What IMHO the fallacy in the western financial elite's strategy is, that they've focussed on robbing the poor and middle class in their own countries, blowing a bubble of 20 years, calling it "free trade", while China has made serious efforts to prop up it's middle class, from the proceeds of that same "free trade" and even allow ownership of gold (and thus grant it's people some kind of economic independence from the central planning).

 

That is an analysis. Nope, the West is at robbing the poor in the world outside the Western world to fatten the middle class and incidentally the western poor.

There is other mean to bleed somebody dry rather than allowing to get a house that could not be afforded without inflating a RE bubble.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 16:47 | 1114296 steve2241
steve2241's picture

If they feel so strongly about it, why do they continue to hold the debt of the U.S. Government on their books? I'll tell you why: All hat and no cattle!

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 16:46 | 1114299 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

The sun is finally back out in Cali but I can't even see it. The Swans have left the lake and are now flying around everywhere causing a solar eclispe. This is a big problem because the Chinese  "empty city syndrome" will only elevate this hostilty towards American monetary policy when their bubble bursts and their very own house of cards comes crashing down as well. You would think a Nuclear meltdown in Japan or instability in the Middle East would be enough to rock the boat but no fricken way. We just took a shot over the bow and once this currency war turns into a full blown attack you can kiss the dollar as the world reserve currency goodbye.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 16:50 | 1114316 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

I dunno about you guys, but it sounds like the Fed is actually playing a very strong hand in this round...

I'm no fan of all this crap or the FED, BUT:

1.  They got the chinese by the short ones

2.  They are ginning up the presses and putting the politicos on the spot - warning them every chance they get on Crapitol Hill that if spending doesn't get cut back, bad things will happen

3.  They are telegraphing their moves well in advance - if you have any real net worth at all and a brain, you should be in PMs and inflation hedges by now

4.  If you were molested by the market crash, you are as close to being made whole as possible now as you'll probably ever be, that includes insurers, pension accounts, etc -- you'd think their 'highly paid' fund managers have put in contingencies by now -- if not, they're stupid and deserve what they get

5.  when the dollar implodes, debt will be gone, a PM based system could be implemented, washington will hopefully be raised and smoldering

6.   If all of this goes down, don't you think that all of the banksters will be bye-bye?????  

I dunno - but this could be a scenario - these guys aren't dumb and maybe some of them might even be 'the good guys'

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 17:05 | 1114390 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Anyone thinking Benny-boy and Timmah have the authors of The Art of War by the balls needs to seriously rethink their conclusions.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 17:26 | 1114464 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

I know - I'm skeptical too - BUT - if you were dealt this crappy hand, how would you maximize the end-game, knowing it will end in tears?   What would minimize the pain and enable a quick reset?

Austerity?  -- that benefits bankers (Remember, the FED is private - why would they want to debase their 'loans' - wouldn't they be pitching for austerity like Europe - which is headed and controlled by old-world families with bankster ties)

Raise taxes?  - why wouldn't you push for this if you were a bankster - keeps the short term status quo going

Debase the Dollar - If you were a 'good guy', your loan portfolio would be decimated, your assets shredded, but it would give the country a restart.  Your creditors would be satisfied for bubkus.  You would have to define a fresh start - you wouldn't get outside credit easily therefore your country would need to be self sufficient, no more globalization - Tough medicine -- but a path BACK to a fresh start....

Hmmm....

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 17:20 | 1114431 Highrev
Highrev's picture

Got that? Did it get through your thick scull? Any mistake as to what China’s hand is? (Well, it’s a pretty good indication, wouldn’t you say, ahem, just floating the idea . . .)

Oh, and don’t try to tell me they’ll be bluffing.

These aren’t just words. There is many a concrete action to go with these ideas (eg. government actions).

QE3 is suicide. No doubt in my mind. It might be slow and horrible, but suicide nonetheless.

Remember how we used to pick teams in PE class? In the coming months we’re going to see those teams picked. On one side, those who want to play suicide (Jonestown style – I’m not even giving this Russian Roulette status), and those who unabashedly say they’re insane.

Oh, and that alongside a war, a slightly crippled industrial power, geopolitical unrest in the rest of NAME, localized liquidity crises, etc., will make for an interesting news flow these coming months.

Three cheers to ZH, and thank’s for never letting us down.

 

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 18:07 | 1114655 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

As Big Jim says, QE to infinity is in the cards.   And what if the Chinese are OK with that?

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 17:21 | 1114448 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Wait unti Russia makes a Grab for those islands.

"MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia warned Japan on Friday that its recent behavior in a dispute over a group of Pacific islands was unacceptable, maintaining pressure on Tokyo during a visit by Japan's foreign minister."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/11/us-russia-japan-islands-idUSTR...

What a great time to land grab...while the US-Lead NATO expends thousands of missiles (at $1.6 Mill a piece) on yet another 3rd world country and expends tons of precious jet fuel on cave people....Putin can fly in under the Radar and repossess its islands.

Oil is a Strong Buy imo.

$220 here we come!

BOOYAAHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 17:20 | 1114450 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Sudden, no there is no time for a social life. I did a spreadsheet on Tyler and the statistics show he has 6 hours for himself, not including eating. So no time a lady friend. I keep wondering when does he sleep. Glad he is young. I would be dead now trying to keep up with him. Must have one awesome staff.

 

:))))

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 23:07 | 1115577 AbbeBrel
AbbeBrel's picture

I guess you need to inquire with Ms. Marla Singer about the quality of his time off.   Perhaps he has an evil twin to take care of personal details :-). - AB

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 17:41 | 1114551 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Ben and the Banksters are smarter than you think.  Very likely they will withdraw all QE money, pull huge quantities of liquidity out of the system and start a crash.  The banksters will then swoop in an buy every asset imagineable.  They will then start QE3 and inflate it all again.  Thomas Jefferson warned us about bankers and liquidity cycles. 

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 17:55 | 1114593 Highrev
Highrev's picture

I give that pretty good odds myself.

 

Add: I said yesterday in another post that the Bernank is going to do everything he can to try and look like he's in front of the curve.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 18:14 | 1114684 Mr Anderson
Mr Anderson's picture

Which is exactly why we see the banksters hold as much cash in reserve as possible. Why buffett is holding 36 billion in cash.

Hold your cash, let her crash.

Owning 96% of the world isn't enough, they want %100

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 20:52 | 1115156 willien1derland
willien1derland's picture

SoZ that is a great point - when you consider that thevery same TBTF banks are all larger & more powerful than before the Sept 2008 financial crash what would prevent them from coordinating a similar strike - unfortunately, although I would like to believe otherwise I do not believe that a tin foil hat is required to see how this would play out - I cannot imagine that the TBTF banks are not beatng on the Bernank to scare the world into believing US interest rates MAY be increased - with the almighty USD at all time lows Uncle Warren B needs a USD uplift in order to extend his portfolio - mix a little instability & voila - bargain based prices - moreover, by extending US influence into significant holdings abroad will improve the ability of the US direct traffic - conspiracy theory or "Past Performance indicative of Future Results" - your call

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 23:03 | 1115564 King Durian
King Durian's picture

I also agree with you that Bernanke is much smarter than he is being given credit for. He didn't get the position by being an idiot. How is it possible though to withdraw the QE money already out in the system? I understand its possible to just hold the excess QE funds in reserve and not have the excess funds loaned out; so the funds are not sloshing around in the greater consumer market thereby fueling inflation. I understand how to get the money out there, and how to cause inflation with it. The only thing I think is possible to withdraw the QE funds sloshing around is to raise interest rates to the point that it creates the incentive to keep one's money accruing interest in the bank, thereby sucking the liquidity out of the system and keeping it locked into deposits. Is there another way though that the QE money could be "withdrew", as you said? Very interesting proposition.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 01:36 | 1116006 Creed
Creed's picture

Ben and the Banksters are smarter than you think.  Very likely they will withdraw all QE money, pull huge quantities of liquidity out of the system and start a crash.  The banksters will then swoop in an buy every asset imagineable.  They will then start QE3 and inflate it all again.  Thomas Jefferson warned us about bankers and liquidity cycles. 

 

+1

they have all the money they raked in from doing this in 2008, buying up stocks then selling over the last 6 months

 

timing is perfect for QEIII to "end"

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 17:57 | 1114614 chump666
chump666's picture

yep 100%

trades to watch: UST yields going into hyper space,  USD spike.

China will not allow exported inflation from the US to continue

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 18:06 | 1114645 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

They have so far, and they've even hidden their purchases of bonds via the UK, while sabre rattling in public.   Now why do you think that is....

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 18:46 | 1114787 hambone
hambone's picture

Sophist,

glad to hear your theories on China's continuing purchases of T's (hidden and in open) and end game.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 18:12 | 1114669 DNB-sore
DNB-sore's picture

Boiling point coming

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 18:44 | 1114788 huggy_in_london
huggy_in_london's picture

We talking about the same ruthless dictatorial chinese?  Oh right, yeah like we should believe them.  You think the US CPI is manipulated?  Ha.  Chinese CPI makes the US CPI look clean as a whistle.  

There is a chance all those long metals and stocks get their heads handed to them.  I would not be surprised if this was a massive distribution going on in spx (yesterdays big volume sell off wasn't a few retail guys selling!).  The few big boys will be out, there'll be an announcement of no more QE, maybe even a little fed language change, the shit will hit the fan, stocks will get crunched, and boom.....In rides buffett, soros, etc etc to scoop them up... and then, and only then are you likely to see a qe3.  

 

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 18:45 | 1114792 steelhead23
steelhead23's picture

"The international credit system established on the basis of US dollar as the intermediary has been twisted in a way that the impartiality and reasonable aspect of the current international credit relations gradually vanish.  Different countries, in order to avoid unpredictable losses on their own interests, will have to seek for adjustment of international credit relations, and the global credit war, no doubt, will become the turning point of reforming international credit relations in 2011."

This is not vague.  China is unlikely to continue to hold US dollars at the current level (i.e. gradually vanish).  This would not occur all at once or overnight, but it has begun.  This view that China is trapped into supporting the U.S. debt because the U.S. buys its products, is simply wishful thinking.  The US dollar is dying.  Once it takes a wheel barrow full of bucks to purchase a loaf of bread, all those dumb Americans folks here are fond of identifying, will suddenly become full fledged PhDs, and they will be looking to release their intellectual anger through humorus, ulna, radius, carpals and metacarpals onto any and all available crania.  It is getting close to D-day.  Y'all have some gold, silver, or foreign currency don't you?

BTW - While talking to some less lucky friends and acquaintences about financial matters I noted that some folks put everyone who calls themselves an investor into the "rich" bag.  When the poo hits the fan, this might not be good for those of us who have saved a couple of shekels.  Jes' sayin.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 18:59 | 1114843 steve2241
steve2241's picture

[upon being offered a poker hand as collateral]
C.P. Ballinger, Banker: Forty-six years ago, I started lending money in Larry Bingham's back room. My first customer was a drover named Penny. He wanted two dollars on a Brindle cow at six percent interest. He said she gave six quarts of milk a day. You know what I made him do? I made him move that cow into my back yard for a whole week. And I watched him milk her every day. Sure enough, she gave an average of six and a half quarts a day, so I gave him the money at six and half percent interest. Not only that, I kept the 60 pounds of manure she left behind.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0060165/quotes

I guess collateral is a foreign concept in China.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 19:00 | 1114854 Triple A
Triple A's picture

I thought other countries love our monetary policy. Ben is a hero in this sick world!

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 19:13 | 1114871 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Benocide has got the US Military behind him. QE 18 here we go!

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 20:07 | 1115051 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

You've got it so wrong dude. Broaden your vision, stop thinking that the USA is a closed system, its not, there are many other players out there, with great influence. China's post Cold War Think Tanks have been working this shit out for ages.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 20:04 | 1115030 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

Oh dear, I said China gave the US an ultimatum, that QE would end, that a Contraction of Credit would follow, that Interest Rates would need to be jacked up.
Next I said PMs would be the vehicle for wealth transfer, that wealth would be exported to China, and China would export Sweatshops.
When someone as useless as me starts getting it right, everyone is fucked, were all fucked!
Buy PMs STAT!!!!

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 20:05 | 1115033 htp
htp's picture

This report tries to make two points. One, to blame the US for high inflation in China (both governments are to blame here but Beijing printed even more money relative to GDP than the Fed). Two, to air displeasure over what's happening in Libya, which was a key state in China's expansion in Africa, before Western war planes bombed all its investments and hopes there to pieces.

http://www.hturning.com/index.php?action=topic&id=85

China is OK with QE as long as it gets something in return, such as American acquiescence to China’s dominance in Africa and later the entire third world. It was understood by Beijing to be the implicit “deal” between oligarchies of the two empires. Now that the perceived agreement seems to be in jeopardy, a new round of negotiations would have to commence. This is the opening argument.

http://www.hturning.com/index.php?action=home&page=3

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 01:54 | 1116030 Creed
Creed's picture

great analysis htp

 

The same sort of arrangement was obviously done to give China access to the Afghanistan mineral riches & how odd that the US is building infrastructure that would be necessary for China to take advantage of said riches

Hmmm...Iraq was about oil right? Then why did China get it?

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 21:03 | 1115184 Double down
Double down's picture

Jim explains why the most inefficiently priced treasuries were bought. 

 

Thanks

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 22:56 | 1115537 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

Prediction: Shortly after a Credit Contraction, Banks will advertise Term Deposits on PM Bullion & Coin to sure-up their balance sheets. PM holders will get free storage and an attractive rate of interest. This will allow Banks to free-up cash reserves for ongoing lending without the need to compete on the open market quite so much. Some banks may already do this (Switzerland?), but none that I know of.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 23:15 | 1115594 OldTrooper
OldTrooper's picture

Never mind.  I'm going to have a drink. 

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 01:00 | 1115950 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I guess all of that reserve currency banter makes sense. The problem is usd will loose value as rates rise. But USD will blow out Asian currencies that  rinces usd every day for years. Pay back bitches. usd can handle rate hikes. China lick my BALLS!

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 02:54 | 1116090 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Ha, ha, ha... The Chinese are screaming Uncle!

And ol' Ben has 'em by the short hairs...

The target of Ben's policies have nothing to do with inflation it all been about dumping the parasitic Yuan.

And the lower the Dollar falls the louder the Chinese are gonna bitch...

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 17:56 | 1126719 asiafinancenews
asiafinancenews's picture

This is great -Dagong accuses the U.S. of reneging on the willingness to repay debt, while the CCP refuses to repay $260 billion of China's full faith and credit sovereign debt in violation of international law and is able to escape its repayment obligation through the complicity of the credit rating duopoly (Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service).  This action has resulted in a Civil Racketeering and Antitrust Complaint filed with the U.S. Justice Department:

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/4548858

http://www.globalsecuritieswatch.org/DOJ_Antitrust_Complaint

 

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