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China's Economic Data Leaked

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Completing the trifecta of posts focusing on China, here is the (un)official leak of Chinese GDP data to Phoenix TV which is due out at 10 pm. In the past this has been roughly 100% accurate. So without further ado...

RTRS-CPI 5.3-5.4%         (BBERG est is 5.2%)                 
RTRS-PPI 7.4%             (BBERG est is 7.2%) 
                      
RTRS-IP  14.8%            (BBERG est is 14%)           
RTRS-RETAIL SALES +17.4%  (BBERG est is 16.5%)
RTRS-FIXED ASSET +25%     (BBERG est is 24.8%)               

* GDP also appears to be coming at 9.4%

And this is the inflationary environment in which Chinese home prices are plunging and China is once again loosening...

 

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Thu, 04/14/2011 - 08:20 | 1168234 tek77blu
tek77blu's picture

the story that nobody seems to notice: uranium stocks down 50-75% since japan crisis, while uranium down only 20%....good commentary on it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-EkkhJi9VY

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 08:23 | 1168238 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

BTFD???

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 08:29 | 1168249 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

As always in the bizarro ponzi world, this too is very bullish. =)

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 08:33 | 1168258 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Nuclear wepaons have a shelf life of 15 years I think, so they will always be building new ones.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 09:41 | 1168486 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Stop encouraging the spammer and junk him.  He's posting his OT shit first on damn near every post.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:19 | 1168591 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

meaningless numbers, in a meaningless fiat economy.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 09:11 | 1168367 Hedge Jobs
Hedge Jobs's picture

how the fuck is the first post on Chinese stats about U308 tek you tosser, you should be banned for a few weeks to think about what you have done. Yes we have noticed spot u and u stocks are down. Have you noticed the worlds biggest ever nuclear disaster unfolding before you eyes or did you miss that somehow?

Why the fuck would you buy u stocks now? like with BP you wait for the disaster to stop getting worse then you start buying. This has not stopped getting worse yet.

You only end up with smelly fingers trying to pick bottoms Tek. good luck

 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 08:24 | 1168239 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

I take it you own uranium stocks then...

 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 08:27 | 1168240 squexx
squexx's picture

He's posted it on every thread, must be his own site he's trying to push!

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:38 | 1168659 Arttrader
Arttrader's picture

Certainly not the reason he posted it, but if we're talking about future uranium demand, the new plant construction pipeline in China is the biggest potential factor in the market.  That things go as planned, however, is likely priced into the uranium price.  If central planners change their mind - meltdown.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 08:30 | 1168251 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Spot uranium prices are pretty irrelevant, most purchasing is long term contracts, and there is no trading market.  But the uranium miners I watch having declined that much...

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 08:34 | 1168261 Bugman82
Bugman82's picture

Hmmmm, off topic, advertising for his buys, poor speculation......sounds like a trifecta for a ban.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 08:40 | 1168273 Twindrives
Twindrives's picture

No surprise.  Oversupply of radiation in the atmosphere these days.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 08:57 | 1168340 rocker
rocker's picture

Is Air mining viable.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 09:25 | 1168427 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Air whining is very viable its even recommended as a must, to push away the irradiated dust. Whine, whine, opine but never supine to the fine irradiant swine of U bred spawn.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 08:25 | 1168237 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

inflationary real estate collapse, who would imagine.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 08:28 | 1168244 squexx
squexx's picture

Why the hell not?!? They're using imaginary money to value it!!!

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 08:29 | 1168255 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Oye

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 08:30 | 1168257 Zina
Zina's picture

Since we're talking about China, let's talk about the BRICS summit that just ended.

 

BRICS agree to use local currencies for mutual credit:

http://www.domain-b.com/economy/worldeconomy/20110414_local_currencies.html

 

BRICS summit calls for greater regulation of derivatives market:

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/BRICS-summit-calls-for-greater-regul...

 

BRICS summit alerts for the risks of massive cross-border capital flows:

http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/04/14/do-the-brics-believe-...

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 08:41 | 1168276 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Any word on any of them flying up here and beating the shit out of the SEC and CFTC. Go BRICS!! Rah, rah, rah. The BRICS should include Iceland and then they could be the iBRICS.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 09:26 | 1168428 Breaker
Breaker's picture

"The BRICS should include Iceland and then they could be the iBRICS"

LOL. Then they could be hip, edgy, and overpriced.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 09:34 | 1168457 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

I have been informed that I can eat my iBRIC if I am really really hungry.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 08:44 | 1168277 ivana
ivana's picture

Uuuuuhhhhh!!!
Do not have to read complete articles ... titles only tell me that banksters will have to retaliate hard.
Those colored peasants are getting arrogant!

PS + expect various Trumps all over the place (in EU too)

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 08:32 | 1168262 mpok8
mpok8's picture

If house prices in Beijing have plunged 27% yoy then surely this marks the end of the commodity cycle boom?? Surely we are gonna see Brent oil sub 100? Surely Goldman are right and this is a massive sell today?

 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 08:38 | 1168272 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

I have never lived through anything like this before so that's one take, however I don't see the evidence that commodity prices have rolled over and are on a downward trend.  

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 08:44 | 1168286 mpok8
mpok8's picture

Maybe not downward trend but long term correction... high prices strangling the economy and causing demand destruction... maybe glencore IPO is an example of the smart guys banking in on the bull run... why is core inflation relatively stable? cos wages aren't growing and wages need to rise for long term inflation... is the current correction an opportunity to buy on dips or is it a reversal?

 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 08:40 | 1168280 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I tend to agree with you sale soon but not yet

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 08:44 | 1168294 DoctoRx
DoctoRx's picture

mpok8:  Inflations allow for declines in certain prices.  So maybe some pig farmers will cough up some copper.  But the money printing continues and may even accelerate if the mini-tightening cycle there is indeed over.  Re Chinese home prices, someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think they do mortgages there- I think it's all cash buying.  So a decline in prices both 1) allows the locals to BTFD in home prices, and 2) importantly they don't get the deflationary cascade resulting from banks' leveraged lending we got here in our "advanced" system when home prices correct.  Which is not to say that China can't implode; there are certainly a lot of imbalances there.  I don't see anything from the news today that changes my desire to own lots of gold.  

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 09:23 | 1168414 mpok8
mpok8's picture

too many people harping on about inflation and commodity bull run... it has topped out.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 09:30 | 1168444 HedgeFundLIVE
HedgeFundLIVE's picture

The last time Obama went to war with Wall Street, the biggest of the taxpayers, the market sold off hard: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/thursday-market-expectations-jamie-dimon-gave-us-a-hint-today

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 09:40 | 1168475 ApeMilesHigh
ApeMilesHigh's picture

There is a much larger cash position put into

RE purchases in China (%50+), so the property is not

heavily levered. This drop in some of the local Chinese markets, will

not result in big damage, and is healthy. It will reduce

speculation in those areas for a while until demand/need

picks up again. Speculative money will shift elsewhere.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 12:08 | 1169019 Bleeping Fed
Bleeping Fed's picture

I'm so sick of hearing this inane MSM argument!  Only the super-rich Chinese have the cash to plunk down six figures for a down payment!  For a regular shmoe to gather that much cash for a down payment, he/she will either:

1)  Borrow from relatives (an "inter-generational" bank loan).  These folks are using all of their cash, plus their parents cash, plus sometimes their grandparents cash to buy a home!

2)  Get a shark loan (20%+ interest rates).

And where will this speculative money "shift" to?  Cash (yuan losing value by the minute in China!)?  Commodities (Chinese already can't get enough of their hands on gold--because their cash is losing value by the minute)?

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 11:49 | 1168937 dugorama
dugorama's picture

in the past this has been 100% accurate?  can i get an update on the source?  as far as i know chinese official stats, they belong on the fiction shelf at the library (and always have).

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 13:24 | 1169371 dracos_ghost
Sat, 04/16/2011 - 07:16 | 1175533 DrStrangelove
DrStrangelove's picture

I leaked the data, but I did not shoot the deputy. 

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