The Chinese Disconnect?

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Sun, 10/25/2009 - 22:03 | 110328 Bruce Krasting
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I am going disagree with you on this:

"(it) will require some sort of intervention as it poses serious risks to the global recovery."

We have already done far too much intervention. The list of non market intervention is endless over the last year. It will kill us. The cost of the intervention is too high.

You are probably right, the Fed will intervene if the dollar keeps falling. But it is just good money chasing bad.

 

Sun, 10/25/2009 - 19:43 | 110251 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

WTF? Blame china for our housing bubble/cre party? There is no serious connection here--did chinese banks load up on CDO's? And the next line--Krugman just noticed that the chinese peg might be "harmful". TPTB have been moving out the factories for what?, fifteen years?. In five years they'll be selling Caterpillar knockoffs and Dreamliners in ten(?). And no, the technology design shop is mobile too. We are already totally $##%@#. Blaming china is like blaming the bartender for keeping serving them up and taking the money.

The denoument of the banking system just completes the ripoff of John Q. The squid is bound for Hong Kong or Singapore.

Sun, 10/25/2009 - 18:59 | 110224 bkrolik
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The fact is, the current peg is very beneficial for China. Another fact is, there is no mechanism within the current system of treaties, that would allow US to force China to revalue. My understanding is that there are two possibilities for the resolution of this problem. Either there will be quick and complete recovery, after which China would resume orderly voluntary yuan revaluation, or there will be severe and prolonged trade wars which ultimately restore trade balance. I believe in the second possibility.

 

Sun, 10/25/2009 - 18:43 | 110216 Dont Taze Me Bro
Dont Taze Me Bro's picture

Always remember to put your bullshit filters when reading New York Times.

Paul Krugman, Thomas Friedman and the rest of the pack at NYT are globalization propaganda artists. These people cannot accept the fact that globalization theory might be flawed and that some of the problems that we are experiencing are caused by globalization, and that no amount of currency manipulation, domestic production enhancement, labor re-education, etc will make much a of a difference in the bigger scheme of things.

Under the current regime, the US will continue to decay and devaluate (quiet literally) and China will slowly rise until the two countries are at par, both economically and militarily.

I’ll give Krugman some credit for acknowledging in this article that the change of fortune occurred in 2001, not in 2008 as most people commonly believe. The GDP growth from 2001-2008 was bogus -- it was driven by the Mortgage Equity Withdrawal effect:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2006/09/gdp-growth-with-and-without-mo...

Sun, 10/25/2009 - 14:36 | 110074 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

It's been my position that this time, the Smoot-Hawley moment will play out in the currency markets rather than in Congress.

Sun, 10/25/2009 - 11:45 | 109999 Leo Kolivakis
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You guys are hung up over Krugman? He's one of my favorite economists and he deserved to win the Nobel prize. So did Stiglitz. But in case you didn't notice, I agree with Zachary Karabell here who thinks Krugman is wrong and that China won't revalue. Let's leave the childish statements out of ZH. Stuff like "why quote Krugman" or "a policy on no Krugman in ZH" is just silly, bordering on imbecilic. Love him or hate him, Krugman has done more to restore the prestige of the economics profession than all other economists combined. (I am exaggerating but do believe you have to give him some credit for showing the world that economists are not just irrelevant academics who solve mathematical equations).

Sun, 10/25/2009 - 13:03 | 110038 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The real reason Krugman is not welcome at the Fed is because Uncle Ben is as we speak having the last lingering doubts removed as to what caused the Great Depression. (Keynes and the money machine) Soon he will only have to look in the mirror to find the cause for the second Great Depression.
Krugman deserved to win the Nobel prize......RRRRRRight...... just like Obama did. There is a disconnect here and I don't think it's China

Sun, 10/25/2009 - 12:18 | 110017 Cheeky Bastard
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Leo i like you, but ...

 

I think we should compile a list of Paul Krugman's greatest hits (or just post the link to Bill Anderson's LRC archives).

My favorite happened recently, and was just refuted by one of the newer LRC writers.

"What we want is a system in which banks own the downs as well as the ups. And the road to that system runs through nationalization." -Paul Krugman

"Someone should remind Dr. Krugman that the system in which banks 'own the downs as well as the ups' is called private enterprise." -Lila Rajiva

This, I believe, is one of the classics. A top five hit. The Broken Window Fallacy at its finest, after September 11, 2001.

"So the direct economic impact of the attacks will probably not be that bad. And there will, potentially, be two favorable effects."

First, the driving force behind the economic slowdown has been a plunge in business investment. Now, all of a sudden, we need some new office buildings. As I've already indicated, the destruction isn't big compared with the economy, but rebuilding will generate at least some increase in business spending."

"Second, the attack opens the door to some sensible recession-fighting measures ... Now it seems that we will indeed get a quick burst of public spending, however tragic the reasons."

“The fact that we're here celebrating Social Security shows some politicians' promises are worth more than others. Social Security as it is currently constituted is very efficient. We're talking about a system that really works quite well.”


“Those tax cuts, rather than the spending binge, are the primary cause of the (federal) deficit.”

 

Do you want me to continue or is this enough for you to see how big of a moron Krugman is ....


Sun, 10/25/2009 - 14:53 | 110079 Unscarred
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Thanks for the contribution, Cheeky.  Still hoping that Leo gets back with me, too...

Sun, 10/25/2009 - 17:59 | 110174 Leo Kolivakis
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I am not here to compile Krugman's greatest hits. He gets a lot of exposure so he is bound to make a few mistakes. By the way, both he and Stiglitz were advocating for the nationalization of the financial system, and we got the de facto (partial) one, which Krugman correctly says is worse. As long as we extol the virtues of the private financial system, why don't we also cite the drastic failures too? These guys take excessive risks to print money and get big bonuses at the end of the year. And if they fail, they get bailed out. I agree with Soros, get rid of the hedge funds in banks, spin them off, let them risk their own capital, not that of depositors.

Back to Krugman, my two favorite books are Peddling Prosperity and Pop Internationalism. Here is a link to his Nobel prize lecture:

http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2008/krugman-lect...

cheers,

Leo

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 11:17 | 110585 Unscarred
Unscarred's picture

Leo, thanks for the reply.

You stated:

...By the way, both he and Stiglitz were advocating for the nationalization of the financial system, and we got the de facto (partial) one, which Krugman correctly says is worse.  As long as we extol the virtues of the private financial system, why don't we also cite the drastic failures too?

So long as you wish to extol the virtues of nationalization (to which I'm still searching for), be mindful of the drastic failures, as well.  Further, to agree with Krugman AND Soros is incongruent.  Soros states that he favors reinstituting Glass-Steagall (which I do, too), but falls FAR SHORT of the nationalization preached by Krugman/Stiglitz.

To piggyback the post prior to, be vary wary of your political rhetoric here at ZH.  The truth is only viewed through objectivity.  Political meanderings will not come without consequences.

Having said all that, I appreciate your perspective, and thank you for your recommended selections by Krugman.

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 17:34 | 110935 Leo Kolivakis
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Unscarred,

I am afraid the way things are going, there will be another financial disaster down the road and that will force the US government to fully nationalize the banking system. I hope I am wrong but Einstein said it best: "insanity is repeating the same mistakes over and over and expecting a different result."

Sun, 10/25/2009 - 22:15 | 110339 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Leo;
I come to ZH because an honest effort is made at this site to drag the truth out into the light of day. Anytime someone has tried to come here within their cloak of political bias whether left or right they have gotten their ass handed to them. Political bias is a form of denial used to avoid reality. The ugly reality is it renders capable men like yourself and Krugman useless with the smug idea that it's everyone else's fault. And as soon as they change everything will be utopia. This mess is everyone's fault. Surrounding myself with a group of like minded individuals so I don't have to change is not the answer. To effect change I must look reality straight in the face and make the necessary adjustments to be part of the solution, other wise I'm part of the problem.

Sun, 10/25/2009 - 12:09 | 110010 Unscarred
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I am curious to know what about Paul Krugman fascinates you?  What policies and/or ideas of his do you find so compelling?

TRUST ME, I'm not being a smart ass, I just really want to know.  Hell, I even cited his work in my prior post - I just disagree with his conclusion.

Please, post several links to works of his that you find the most engaging.  I would like to learn more.

Sun, 10/25/2009 - 11:32 | 109994 Cheeky Bastard
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Krugman, i mean, come on .... why not just quoting Obama ...

Sun, 10/25/2009 - 11:10 | 109988 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

China is comparable to a Monopolistic company with no government interference. Ultimately theory would predict failure however in the short term they are better organized than any other economy in the world. If we are not going to start trade wars then we need to invest in Technologies that China wants to buy from us and we are late to the party.

Sun, 10/25/2009 - 08:06 | 109930 Anonymous
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Krugman missed calling the subprime because he was too busy spending his Nobel prize money on a NY apartment at the top of the housing bubble. He is shunned by the Fed, seems every time the Fed went to wipe their ass Krugman was in the way! He's a political panderer.

Sun, 10/25/2009 - 12:00 | 110006 Unscarred
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HAH!  Awesome!

Sun, 10/25/2009 - 06:36 | 109921 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

I am sure currency pegs etc are relevant to currency traders and statisticians, but the relevance of the Remnimbi, oops, Yuan to the dollar doesn't exactly thrill me. The issue is the openness of the US and Chinese economy to each other. Sure, at the margin, Sino-US trade is important, but the majoirty of world trade occurs outside these economies, not between them. A case for "get over yourselves" if ever I heard one. I see the growing trade penetration in other countries traded goods sector as a function of the three times lower costs for manufacturing of goods, in a larger permutatoin of Chinese regions as the Chinese correct their impoverished living standards by creating a middle class while our Governments and regulators reveal their low IQ's by encouraging it. Does this mean that our middle class is overpriced relative to China's? Yes, does this mean that we need to solve the problem by making the Chinese middle class more expensive (richer) nd Americas (fast diminishing) middle class poorer by currency manipulation? I think not. I find it hilarious that the US doesnt accuse itself of currency manipulation also, given my view that monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policy are one and the same thing these days.

Sun, 10/25/2009 - 01:34 | 109861 Unscarred
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From Paul Krugman's blog:

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/24/adjustment-and-the-dollar/

So something has to give — specifically, the relative price of US output, and along with it such things as US relative wages, has to fall...

So, the bottom line: to narrow international imbalances, we need a lower relative price of US output. Because prices are sticky (including labor prices), by far the easiest way to get there is dollar depreciation.

This obviously is the easiest way, but also by far the most painful way (inflation through increased cost of imports; higher borrowing costs for Federal Gov't; and loss of reserve status for dollar, to name a few reasons why).

Spain is facing a similar circumstance, as their exports are unable to complete globally because of high relative wages.  With 18.5% unemployment (twice the average of the European Union), Spain would "benefit" from a currency devaluation; however, they remain affiliated with the EU and the euro.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125249000052995119.html

Over the past decade, Spain's labor costs have risen at nearly twice the rate of the other nations that use the euro as their currency, making Spain increasingly uncompetitive internationally. Because it has no currency of its own to devalue, economists say it can regain its competitiveness only through years of painful wage and price disinflation.

Even though high domestic labor costs have already crippled several industries in the U.S. (airlines, autos, etc.), don't expect this administration to allow years of painful wage deflation to take place for "real people who work for a living."

Accordingly, this type of action will keep domestic wage rates mostly in tact, but it will cripple the value of domestic capital.  This will also have a PROFOUND impact with regards to wealth redistribution, possibly even more so than the ensuing hefty tax increases, depending on how far the White House and Treasury decide to let the dollar fall.

Sun, 10/25/2009 - 00:10 | 109845 P Kennedy
P Kennedy's picture

I have to echo #109745- put Krugman on ignore..seriously ( any chance we can get that as ZH policy? )

Second, expand your horizons from unilateral to multilateral: check out the commentary coming out of the EU finance ministers

All that said, don't expect anythinig more than a "controlled " rate of appreciation - it perpetuates the myth. China is well aware their banking system is vapor...

Sat, 10/24/2009 - 20:38 | 109756 torabora
torabora's picture

They are selling some of their dollar hoard....they're buying commodities esp scrap metal. It's always cheaper to reuse aluminum and copper than to dig it out of the ground.

Sat, 10/24/2009 - 20:32 | 109745 Lux Fiat
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Interesting interview with Niall Ferguson at http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/357648/Wake-Up-Washington!-China-Is-Already-Dumping-the-Dollar-Niall-Ferguson-Says.

He may be overly optimistic on China's ability to jump start internal consumption to a level that sufficiently offsets exports, but his take is that the Chinese may be in a position within a year to not take a major hit if the dollar tanks.

"People in Washington rather assume because the U.S. consumer was so dominant there really isn't a substitute," Ferguson says. But China's trade surplus stood at $12.9 billion in September, down about 56% from a year earlier, according to MarketWatch.com.

From 1998-2007, China engaged in a form of vendor financing, lending money to the U.S. so the U.S. would buy Chinese goods, Ferguson explains. "I think that model has basically broken. They know it and have a new one in which we play a much less important role."

While I would think that given the size of the $ market, it would take a while to make a meaningful switch, never underestimate the domino effect of spooked global investors who are watching the "smart" money heading for the exits.  I think that there is to much complacency in many quarters about the nature of the changes taking place, and not enough concern.

Sun, 10/25/2009 - 22:24 | 110346 Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

China's Central Bank newspaper is out now saying that China should increase its holdings of Euros and Yen for FX reserves.

Dollar is getting dumped on this; EUR/USD new yearly highs, other carries vs. the dollar doing well.  USD/JPY starting to dump again.

Sat, 10/24/2009 - 20:06 | 109735 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I normally get a lot out of your posts. Not this time Leo. Starting off with any way the wind blows Krugman almost stopped me. Expecting substance from Krugman is on par with the expectation that Obama will stop lying. Stick to the sports section, layoff Krugman your starting to sound like him. Intervention got us here,if our current path is unsustainable. All the more to the good. There is alot of shit that needs to hit the fan the sooner the better.

Sun, 10/25/2009 - 12:20 | 110018 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

You're right Anon, Krugman is oblivious to the fact that is is a sustained loose monetary policy that ignites booms and busts. He fails to grasp that low short term interest rates fuel speculation and that asset prices can easily be reigned in with tighter policy.

I think it's evident Krugman is a smart guy when it comes to theory but in practice I can't think of a single important issue he's nailed in the last three or four years. Roubini usurped him, then Ferguson and hell even Summers is pushing to distance himself from the radical liberal Keynesian economist.

I remember reading a paper a little over a year ago that pointed out every 1% increase in short term lending rates was equivalent to a 25% decrease in oil prices. If asset prices need to be tamed raise rates. The paradox would be if rates were raised but printing outpaced this causing the dollar to decline at the same time.

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