Chinese Inflation Heats Up Again As PBoC Takes Another Step To Establish Yuan As Reserve Currency

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Thu, 03/10/2011 - 22:59 | 1039239 buzzsaw99
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All of which simply means that China just took another big step toward instituting the Yuan as the next reserve currency.

That's what the bernank and turbo want too.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 23:16 | 1039289 dlmaniac
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China bought so much gold and silver recently they had a trade deficit.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 23:18 | 1039294 william the bastard
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It's a good thing?

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 05:35 | 1039907 Weisbrot
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in respect to the Chinese divesting themselves of the devaluating fiat dollar it is, for them.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 23:18 | 1039291 william the bastard
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At least they are avowed communists.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 23:39 | 1039341 reader2010
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Not exactly. Bernanke's owners want China's RMB to be a part of the soon-to-be-created world currency. If China rocks the boat by going alone with other countries, you should expect nasty large-scale wars with China. Soro just hinted that in his recent FT video interview. 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pz8L6hyZngI

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 23:51 | 1039388 buzzsaw99
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They try to raise the price of my undies and it's on bitchez!

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 04:34 | 1039880 jeff montanye
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exactly.  whereas the nineteenth century saw the british empire fight the good fight to keep the chinese addicted to opium and the pound, the twenty first must see the american empire go to war over keeping them addicted to hopium and the dollar.  what better use of blood and treasure (well, not literally treasure...)?

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 06:34 | 1039947 malikai
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Any shooting war between the US and China will result in certain catastrophic loss for both. The next empire may very well be Djiboutian in the world of post China-US war.

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 09:00 | 1040108 Translational Lift
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No one in their right mind would get into a ground war with China and their 1.3 Billion population.  The winner will be the one that pulls the nuke trigger first!

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 05:37 | 1039908 Weisbrot
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does that mean after the Chinese become the world currency the FRB will print their fiat? (just as they counterfit so many US items)

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 11:07 | 1040438 dracos_ghost
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Given that the yuan is pegged(aka a foodstamp), the FRB already is printing their fiat.

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 08:38 | 1040069 Snidley Whipsnae
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Not exactly, not exactly... What Soros said was that the US wants China's participation in the IMF to increase. The IMF is a puppet of the US.

Soros also confirmed Triffin's Paradox, but he failed to lable it as such.

China has it's own organisation, the SCO, and is more interested in boosting the strength and prestige of the SCO.

No one is going to start 'a large scale war with China'... China has an impressive nuclear arsenal, the war would be fought in the SE Pacific within striking distance of China's most effective weapons, and no one would win such a conflict...the result would be mutually assured destruction.

The current 'war' is economic and will remain so. As China gains economic clout it will pull more nations into it's sphere of influence...while Western Socialist Soverigns gradually, or not so gradually, decline, and lose influence.

PMs are the key factor in the economic war and all central banks recognize that fact. The worlds central banks are not holding, and adding to, their PM reserves for no reason.

 

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 14:37 | 1041483 reddog
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You have it tight but for one thing.

 

Would that western nations were Socialist;

they would be working for their larger populations

and not just the new robber barons.

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 15:04 | 1041640 reader2010
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The weakest link for China is energy, food and water. It aint gonna end in an orderly fashion when the shit hits the fan. Indeed, China is the biggest Paper Tiger.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 23:07 | 1039244 rapier
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Once commercial quantities of RNB exist offshore then it will start trading.  At which point how can they 'manange' the exchange rates, meaning dictate them, any longer?

I don't believe they can but maybe I'm wrong.  Anybody have any opinions?

Also it probably isn't much an issue short term but I wonder what the effect on global liquidity will be when Chinese based credit finds its way out into the world?

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 06:36 | 1039948 malikai
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The exchange rate could be eaily managed by controlling the gold/silver/whatever ratio to currency. Be sure the Chinese would do this, and it would not stop inflation, it would only be better managed than the current system, which is to say it would be slightly less evil than the current system, but not by much.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 23:00 | 1039245 Oh regional Indian
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Yup. But I think China is more likely readying the world for soomething other than the dollar, but probably not the Yuan. You have to have a lot more than gold backign to become a global reserve currency. China has waaaaaay too many internal problems to deal with.

The US will fire a shot from the shoulders of EMEA into the heart of CHina when the time is right. Till then, keep on jawboning.

It's the IMF we have to keep our eyes on, it's the other hand.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/03/09/axis-of-evil-doing/

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 23:46 | 1039370 slewie the pi-rat
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hi, ori, you shithead! i had to look up "EMEA":

}Paste{ : Europe, the Middle East and Africa, usually abbreviated to EMEA, is a regional designation used for government, marketing and business purposes. ...{

so, of course, you are right, again...  but this is pretty crypto:  "The US will fire a shot from the shoulders of EMEA into the heart of CHina when the time is right. Till then, keep on jawboning." 

once, in asia, when i was in the wrong place at the wrong time with the wrong people, i had the opportunity to observe chinese gamblers.  and vietnamese, also, but the chinese, down along the river were something to behold.

the depiction in "the deer hunter" where, along that very river, as the story goes, there is the Russian Roulette Casino, is quite accurate as far as the gambling goes.  i have been escorted thru rooms like that.  terry & the pirates, big time.  not a show of weapons, either, just a heluva lotta action, and people looking like badbad leroy brown all over the place.  piles of 'money' and great drama.

if the chinese are looking at 4.9% inflation, and here the ice is thin, indeed, but IF, ori, the chinese inflation is 2X the USA inflation, those riverboaterZ are devaluing their currency twice as fast as uncle sugar and the FED!  and they are playin for huge pots all over the place.  they got the printer goin, they got the fractional thing goin, they gotta just love the kinda "plays" that get aired on zeroHedge.  in a few years, they will wipe everybody else completely out.

unless...

well, thanks 4 the new acronym, whatever it was...

 

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 01:21 | 1039629 reader2010
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You don't need to visit Asia to see those actions. Because all you need to do is to visit Vegas.

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 01:38 | 1039664 Oh regional Indian
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Hey Slooie, thanks for the brain fart.

if I may add to the mysteriousness:

Taking a higher perspective, it becomes quite obvious to the trained eye which way tensions are buildiing with-in a system. Once the limits and locus are determined, it's fairly simple to exptrapolate....

The arrow will fly for sure, a Broken Arrow perhaps.

How rouge!

;-)

ORI

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 12:35 | 1040225 Green Leader
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You know what I think regarding the next global reserve currency--and its Biblical relationship.

Indeed, the is IMF the one doing the tricks. They have distracted the world with all this Amero, Bancor, SDR, talk when the Denario is coming up. But, by the time it comes, we will have the devil on our backs, feeling his breath on our shoulders.

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 15:39 | 1041795 Oh regional Indian
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I feel it GL. Looks like we are in for a little fire and ice.

ORI

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 23:02 | 1039250 tellsometruth
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neato

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 23:05 | 1039259 4D
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Hmm, and retail sales were only up 15% on expecations of 19%, only 11% year on year.

No wonder CPI wasn't too bad, the people are running really short of cash!

 

PPI was way above forecast at 6.6%, so another wave is coming anway. 

Good luck with the switch to a consumer economy!

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 23:09 | 1039263 waterdog
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Sounds like an ugly fight for the spoils following the death of the only person in the family that had money. Those who were not at the funeral are at the homestead putting name stickers on the furniture.

China is screwing with monkey man because it can. All central banks are lost. No country is going to accept a communist country's currency as a benchmark.

 

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 23:15 | 1039285 Harlequin001
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China is  sitting on a mountain of nothing.

That's what happens in a default, just ask a Bernie Maddoff investor,...

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 23:16 | 1039286 Oh regional Indian
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No country is going to accept a commie benchmark. True.

Unless we're all communists? Seems to the our 'planned" future, yes?

ORI

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 02:26 | 1039756 Guy Fawkes Mulder
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ORI:

As you often do, you cut to fundamental issues here.

I assume you don't mean "commie" "communist" with all the connotations that has for the typical American. I assume you mean "oligarchy" "dictatorship" "fascism" "corporate over individual" "new world order" etc.

There is no getting around this planned future neatly. Sometimes I find it hard to suffer the fools who frame the present in old thinking, old memes, old strawmen issues. Yes, there are ancient issues plauging the world right now. But Marx, Joe McCarthy, Lenin, "commies"... these are bullshit piñatas for fools to swing at while the real issues are being decided behind the fools' backs.

I've been thinking about writing something publishable about this issue of the Chinese model versus the American model. Addressing both the perceived images of America and China and the reality.

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 05:09 | 1039892 Bob
Bob's picture

You likewise cut to some fundamental issues here, including the fools heroically fighting the Cold War.  Please write that article!

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 05:31 | 1039898 Guy Fawkes Mulder
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The news tonight is scaring me.

Hope the world is here when I wake up... I live in several kill zones (big city, pacific rim, no bunker, not much food, etc)...

Is this Friday the day?:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WI8dfFN7H1w

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 05:48 | 1039920 Bob
Bob's picture

Nah, it's all good until the bernank stops printing. 

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 15:28 | 1041743 reddog
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Reality is good; most function on faith.

Hope to read it soon.

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 15:45 | 1041813 Oh regional Indian
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Yes GFM, I did mean the "real' communists, the steel fist in the collective glove.

I think a genuinely insightful take on American style Capitalism vs. Chinese style communism would be really well received. Write away and do share.

ORI

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 01:42 | 1039673 bankonzhongguo
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There are many new machines in China, all being run by a disposable/replaceable workforce that operates at 5% of US labor costs and zero environmental laws.

When you have the likes of Buffet, Soros and Murdoch all marveling at a State run like a Corporation, you can see TPTB will send their money to any regime under any circumstances.

One need only look to the growth of CYN denominated Corporate bonds from HK to see where this is going.

I used to feel the same way about China 15 years ago. Not anymore.

I have seen too many deals where the Chinese will just pull the rug out from under any direct investor, but the MTV generation will pour their faith into China, Inc.

If MINFIN and PBOC are serious about a reserve currency, they have to strike while the iron is hot.  Back the CYN with gold, silver, copper, rare earths and then relativize the EUR and USD as an average of the two then weighted with the PM.  Be the XDR.

If one yuan is backed by just a micro-gram of gold, the world will begin to orbit Zhongguo. Do the Chinese have the balls to go Austrian?

You guys can go down the road of the IMF/FRB, and continue to be just as exploited as from the Opium Wars, or create a real reserve currency - backed by - Real Reserves.

 

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 15:56 | 1041854 Non Passaran
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That's a very good question. I think they won't go Austrian because the fear of problems at home is greater than the desire to do well internationally (or in the long term). What politician would discard a tool that allows him to "fine-tune" domestic economy when it (or he) needs a little boost? ;-)

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 23:09 | 1039264 Harlequin001
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And does anyone really have more confidence in the yuan than the dollar.

Perhaps the paper quality is improved...

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 23:16 | 1039283 Misean
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Given the news on cotton used for currency, it's clear that at least they go through the bother of actually...printing.

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 05:41 | 1039913 Weisbrot
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more confidence in effency over corruption, you tell me.

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 07:11 | 1039962 falak pema
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If there is any truth in the macro report of Raoul Pal posted here on ZH, China's big banks are worse in debt than the TBTF-all-americans! WOW, oh wow!

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 23:12 | 1039275 bob_dabolina
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Tim Geithner sucks

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 23:17 | 1039288 william the bastard
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You should know.

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 00:01 | 1039407 bob_dabolina
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Tim Geithner sucks

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 23:22 | 1039297 Spalding_Smailes
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Farewell to the China price March 2011: Firms operating in China must reassess their business models in the light of impending wage inflation, says Harris & Moure's Steven M. Dickinson

By Steven M. Dickinson

The China price has dominated world markets for over a decade, but its reign is coming to an end as government planners pursue wider economic change. There are two principal objectives: First, to shift from an export-led growth model to one more reliant on domestic consumption; and second, to move the manufacturing sector up the value chain into product categories with more of an emphasis on technology than cheap labor. It all points to a dramatic increase in wages for Chinese workers, which will wipe out the longstanding cost advantage of manufacturing in the country. Salary gap Even though China has a large GDP, this is simply due to the fact that it has a large population. On a per-capita basis, the country ranks 99th out of 183 nations. It is no surprise, therefore, that wages are low.  But salaries in China aren't just low, they are abnormally low. Typically, a country's minimum annual wage is 58% of its per capita GDP; in China it is 25% of per capita GDP, good enough for 158th place out of the aforementioned 183 nations.  The gap between the GDP and minimum wage rankings – 99 versus 158 – is perhaps the most telling statistic. For the majority of countries, there is a close correlation between the two rankings; the disparity in China's case points to grossly inequitable income distribution.  This is borne out by the Gini coefficient numbers, a widely accepted measure of economic disparity. China's coefficient is 0.47 on a range of 0 (perfectly equal) to 1.0 (perfectly inequal), putting it 83rd out of 134 countries measured.  According to Gini, China's level of income inequality is higher than in almost every industrialized country in the world. Foreign fallout The obvious easy target is foreign-owned enterprises and privately owned export-orientedmanufacturers. Wages are already increasing in these sectors and it appears that the process has only just begun. Governments in Guangzhou, Shanghai and Beijing are already experimenting with mandatory union collective wage bargaining, with the hopes of 80% coverage within three years.  While the end result is of course unknown, Liu's proposal for a doubling of worker wages within five years appears to be entirely reasonable. In fact, the increase could be much more significant in the foreign and export-oriented sector. What does this mean for foreign firms? Much of the attractiveness of China as a location for manufacturing has relied almost entirely on abnormally low wages. Recent estimates indicate that on average labor accounts for about 50% of the cost of manufactured goods globally; in China this figure has been as low as 10% over the past 10 years. As wages increase, the attractiveness of China to low-end factory owners will fall.  The raw numbers Recent studies have shown that: • Wages of civil servants are abnormally high. The average salary of a civil servant in China is six times the minimum wage, compared to a global average of two times. • Management level salaries in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are abnormally high. The average SOE manager in China makes 98 times the minimum wage, compared with a global average of five times. • Within the state sector itself, wage disparity is abnormally high. An SOE banker on average earns 3,000% more than his counterpart at a construction company, compared with a global average disparity of 70%.
The pressure is compounded by costs of necessary items being abnormally high relative to wages.  • The UN recommends that it should be possible for an average worker to purchase a home with three to six years of annual income. In Beijing, it is estimated that the average worker would have to toil for 74 years just to buy a place in a suburban multi-story condo block, unfinished, unfurnished and without any amenities. • The cost of electricity is a good index of the basic utility costs for urban residents. The average cost of 1,000 kilowatt-hours as a proportion of the average monthly wage in the US, South Korea and Japan is 2.67%, 3.19% and 8.19% respectively. In China, by comparison, it is 30.68%. • The US Department of Agriculture estimates that the average Chinese family spends 28% of its total monthly income on food. While this compares favorably with other developing countries, the number is far higher than America's 6.1%. Food prices remain the key driver of inflation in China, rising 10.3% year-on-year in January as the newly revised consumer price index rose 4.9%. The figure is well above the traditional central government target of 3%, and even above its revisedtarget of 4% for 2011. This makes wage growth an even more pressing social issue.For other businesses, the situation is less clear. Even taking into account impending wage inflation, it will be many years before Chinese salaries rise anywhere near the level of the developed world. And a wage increase commensurate with China's overall economic development will not, on its own, make the country an unattractive place in which to do business.  On the other hand, it may well be possible that abnormally low wages have masked other, more fundamental issues related to manufacturing in China. For example, recent data suggests that the economy is remarkably inefficient and its workers unproductive. Once the artificial inducement of low wages is removed, it is entirely possible that these inefficiencies will cause some businesses to decide that operating in China makes no economic sense.  This kind of analysis needs to be done immediately, since there is little question as to the direction of wages over the next five years. http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/industry-focus/in-the-magazine/articl...

 

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 23:23 | 1039305 Misean
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I sure hope you're getting paid for all the spamming you do.

I'd ask you to be polite and just post a link, but I suspect that is beyond your capacity.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 23:27 | 1039317 Spalding_Smailes
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I really don't give a shit what your opinion is ... Book it.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 23:30 | 1039322 buzzsaw99
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Richard?

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 23:35 | 1039333 Misean
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Yes, rude blowhards rarely care about politeness or propriety. Though, I'd not book from you, as I've come to the opinion you do NOT get paid for spamming. Is it a fetish?

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 23:42 | 1039356 Spalding_Smailes
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No, I just don't like Communist ....

Who named you the police of Zero Hedge ? If you don't like my post, don't read it ....

 

 

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 23:50 | 1039381 Misean
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Well, see, that was my whole point. If you wouldn't spam like a monkey flinging his feces at the crowd, it would be quite easy to roll past you. Capiche?

It has nothing to do with me being the police, but with you being impolite.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!