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Chinese November Trade Hits Record As Surplus Declines Marginally, Imports From US Hit Record
November gross trade in China hit a record $283.8 billion, with exports greater than imports by $22.9 billion. This was once again greater than the consensus of $21.2 billion, as the country continues to boost its net exports to the detriment of US politicians who are demanding a pick up in imports from the world, but the US particularly. Oddly enough, Chinese imports from the US hit $9.7 billion in the prior month, a new record, although export to America were $26.5 billion for a net $16.7 billion trade balance as US industries continue to rely exclusively on China and Germany for stockpiling their products, and boosting the inventory component of GDP. As a result of the record trade data, China hiked its RRR for the third time in five weeks: an event largely priced in, and which did not move the markets. The only question out of China is whether the country will hike its official interest rate over the weekend following tonight's inflation data release. And with the Chinese trade surplus out of the way, we are now looking for US trade deficit 8:30 am release which is expected to come at $43.8 billion, following $44 billion in September.
Monthly Chinese gross imports and exports:
Chinese trade balance by major region:
Trade balance with US:
Trade balance with EU:
Trade balance with the ROW:
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wait till they start exporting that inflation back by revalueing the RMB. Then we will see how Americans like a devalued dollar.
China Selling Euros
I expect a major shakeout in China. The equities are looking toppy and there is just too much hype out there. Beware!
With todays import prices...looks like the inflation is here
Even Momos are getting outsourced...
Day Trading Still Alive, Outsourced to China
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/10/business/global/10daytrade.html
"Trading firms based in the United States and Canada are recruiting inexpensive workers in China and teaching them to engage in speculative trading — which means repeatedly buying and selling shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, hoping for quick profits."
Just a quick thought on global trade generally...
The current Rubin/Summers et al paradigm sold national and/or geographical specialization as desirable...
With an eventual outcome of a critically mutually interdependent world. Its assumed this will produce not only a universal level of general prosperity but ensure a more peaceful globe.
THIS IS AN INCORRECT FORMULATION
From an ecological perspective, a more survivable globe would benefit by some number of perhaps culturally diverse and (importantly) economically self-sustaining quasi-independent 'social organisms'...
This is not to suggest that all global trade is bad... it can and should serve important purposes...
But rather to suggest that constantly increasing global trade in not necessarily a marker of civilization health.
(I'd also suggest that even if the Rubin/Summer paradigm were a good one... which it ISN'T... they implemented it in a way the screwed the American people and good self-government generally in favor of global elites and 'governance by crony.'
As soon as you mentioned Rubin/Summers, I knew that whatever was proposed would be self-serving, intellectual swill spewing forth from two of the most corrupt, inept mouths to have stained this country.
I find we can hardly blame anyone, not the Chinese, for our deficit. We love to spend.
Did Obama and the Republicans just given us 900 billions to do it again?
Like a famous person once said:
Sshh.... be quiet g3h! you figured out the game. Don't tell that Chinese guy. Every poker game needs at least one sucker preferably two. Free money for Americans. You Chinese can eat my paper.
China is buying more US goods and services. Makes sense. The US simply asked China to reinvest its' surplus dollars into purchases instead of investments. Concurrently, inflation in China coupled with dollar deflation will magnify the consumer effect in China. Remember in terms of raw numbers, China and Brazil have a middle class at least as large as that of the US. It's about raw numbers. At some point the balance of trade will start to tip; it's a question of when and how much poorer will Americans be before the swing happens?
At the end of the day its about access to resources over the long-term (2 generations - 40 years or so). Put simply; who starves and who grows fat. Iraq and afganistatan are part of the US's long-term energy and geo-political strategy. Iran is an outlier.
Bottom line: If there are going to be more rich people in China, Brazil, India eating more then there will be more people eating less unless there are fewer people or we grow more food. Fat chance of that as we approach 7B on the planet and climate change is beginning to effect crop cycles.
Nice to see that America is exporting it's gold and silver to China!
IPADS FOR GOLD!
I just traded some of my gold for a five acre truck farm that went on the auction block. It's small but good soil and irrigated with water rights. Gold is great. Gold is god. But farmland may outperform in total returns over ten years. Let's see. Maybe my gold went overseas but I think I got a good deal!
Look trade deficits don't matter for the reserve currency. In fact they are necessary if we want to maintain hegemony. It's the simplest solution to triffins paradox. What is really kick ass is now we are monetizing them.
We have to import everything. We don't make anything anymore.
Someone tell us how much of our exports to China are precious metals or made of them?