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Chinese Yuan Hits 18 Year High Against Dollar

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The world's most anticipated currency revaluation continues at its traditional glacial pace. And while it is not a surprise to anyone, the overnight PBOC fixing for the CNY dropped below the psychological 6.50 level (or 6.4990 to be precise) for the first time since 1993. Granted, if the US and Chuck Schumer in particular were to stop pushing China to revalue, it would have long since done so at a faster pace, however in light of the diplomatic effort to force it to do so, the ongoing snail's pace shift in FX will continue (and may well reverse now that even more legislation is introduced to the "enforce" China's currency manipulator status). Yet what is notable is that over the past 4 days the CNY has seen a dramatic 0.75% appreciation: easily one of the most aggressive weekly moves by PBoC bands. Is this move merely a political ploy to silence the critics, or is China truly starting to crack under the weight of its own inflation? We shall know soon enough.

More from Bloomberg:

The currency’s seventh weekly gain, its longest winning streak since July 2008, may damp U.S. criticism of China’s exchange-rate policy before Premier Wang Qishan heads to Washington next month for talks with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner. Consumer prices in Asia’s biggest economy rose 5.4 percent from a year earlier in March, exceeding the government’s 4 percent goal for this year.

“Inflation is still higher than what the government would like to see,” said David Cohen, a Singapore-based economist at Action Economics, who previously worked for the Federal Reserve. “The central bank is tolerating faster currency appreciation to contain import costs.”

The yuan strengthened 0.17 percent to 6.4907 per dollar as of 2:50 p.m. in Shanghai, earlier touching a 17-year high of 6.4898, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. It’s set for a 0.9 percent monthly advance, the best performance of 2011. In Hong Kong’s offshore market, the currency jumped 0.29 percent today to 6.4635, the biggest gain in Bloomberg data going back to Aug. 24.

The People’s Bank of China set the yuan’s reference rate at 6.4990 per dollar, the strongest level since July 2005. The currency is allowed to trade up to 0.5 percent on either side of the official rate.

Twelve-month non-deliverable forwards rose 0.18 percent to 6.3120 per dollar in Hong Kong, trading at a 2.8 percent premium to the onshore spot rate, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Local billionaire Li Ka-shing’s Hui Xian Real Estate Investment Trust, the city’s first listed shares denominated in yuan, began trading today.

The “unusually fast pace” of yuan gains confirms that the yuan is being used to fight inflation, Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior economist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong, wrote in a note to clients today. He said there may be a “sharp gain” once 6.50 is breached and recommends buying the yuan against the greenback using non-deliverable forwards.

Visually:

and shorter-term:

And for those wondering what China may peg to next until it launches its own SDR/gold/copper/coking coal/seaweed backed currency, here's an artist's impression. Recall, Chinese Exports to the EU are roughly the same as to the US.

 


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Fri, 04/29/2011 - 04:44 | Link to Comment asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

Yuan Bitchez

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 04:55 | Link to Comment Popo
Popo's picture

More like:  Chinese hard-landing bitchez

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 06:03 | Link to Comment Twindrives
Twindrives's picture

Yeah buddy, my gold and silver holdings are also at all time high against Benny's Green Stamps.   Hey Ben, hey Barry, kiss my ass.   Who needs a Chairsatan and a 3rd world president anyways.

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 04:59 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Maybe this piece of paper really is worth more than the American one, eventually.

Must be the pretty coloured ink...

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 04:58 | Link to Comment Popo
Popo's picture

If it was heavier and shiny it'd be worth more for sure.

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 05:28 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

and if it was soft, strong and thoroughly absorbent I'm sure I could find a real use for it...

Now that's value...

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 07:29 | Link to Comment Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

They will be able to celebrate the may day holiday from such a strong currency position.

Or is the holiday Chinko De Mayo?

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 05:00 | Link to Comment rokakoma
rokakoma's picture

whenever a government thinks they are more clever than the market it always ends up in some sort of crash.

This time, China will (actually is) losing a lot of money on dollar collapse. The market will correct itself for the decades long imbalances they have created. 

The China Bubble is going to burst very soon. They must strengthen tehir currency a lot, and that will bring down their exports, and growing. I can hardly wait for their real estate bubble burst (which has probably started already) 

Yuan is way overhyped in my view, even though it will be one of the reserve currencies in the future, but just after global imbalance is restored.

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 05:13 | Link to Comment Itsalie
Itsalie's picture

Wholesale vegetable and fruit prices in China is up 30% year on year, a kilo of locally-grown banana cost nearly US$1 (5.5RMB) wholesale in Guangzhou Wholesale Market, the largest in China, from a quick walk during last trip a week ago. What's the retail price in Walmart these days?

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 05:12 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

 

WAR is where all of this is headed, and I mean real war, not regional conflicts over petroleum for mummy's soccer-suv or even daddy's toy but oil to grow our FOOD.

War, war, war.  Bloody, ugly, deathly, ugly, fucking, WORLD WAR.

Why the baboons in Wall Street and Washington cannot see or do not care that this is what their juvenile narcissism is bringing the world to I do not know - but they all deserve to hang.

 

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 05:36 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

You are on ORI's 33 rd parallel with a vengeance...But the current currency war now full tilt as launched by Benocide and with retaliation threatened by China, aka 2T USD dump, will make the ride through 2011 very bumpy!! Especially as Yuan is hotting up dangerously for china!

I find it difficult to believe, in the context of "NO QE-3/QE-2 to end" speech by Ben that ONLY USD devaluation will fuel the current WS assets+ PM+OIL +commodities spikes. We can't have ALL these asset classes going to the sky AND say 'NO INFLATION' in USA and all green lights are on towards real economic growth. This is obvious false mirror play and ONE day China/BRIC WILL pull the plug on it!

Watch out!

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 07:45 | Link to Comment Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

Were your ancestors in the livery stable business a hundred odd years ago?

We are not heading to war.  I think the critical point has been passed as you are seeing the Middle East Arab dictatorships starting to blow up.  Asia is next.  Then Europe.  The US will be the last economy standing.

Look at the cost of living in the US and compare it to Canada, China, Europe, Brazil, Latin America, South America, etc.  I would not have guessed 10 years ago that the US would have lower house prices, similar food prices, lower vehicle prices, lower energy prices than the other parts of the world.  The US has higher productivity and a higher educated workforce.

It does not make sense to fight a war for oil when it costs $100/barrel to pump it from deep ocean wells.  Thorium is the obvious choice.  Paradym shift here we come.

When the global economy shifted from coal to oil, did your family prosper?  Now that we are on the cusp of shifting to nuclear energy, what will your family do going forward?  I hope your answer is not buying everything in cans and bugging out to some rocky outcrop and waiting for the neighbours to show up.

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 08:18 | Link to Comment johny2
johny2's picture

I hope you are right, but you do not take into the account that there is more and more people around the world sinking bellow starvation line by each moment, due to corrupt system we live in. The war is going to start because there is plenty of countries that are going to find themselves bankrupt due to collapse of the financial system. I would not be surprised if you soon find the idea of running of to the mountains very attractive, but even that may not be enough. The WW1 and WW2 happened already, what makes you believe humans have evolved so much?

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 09:01 | Link to Comment Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

The "War" you are talking about is already happening in the Middle East.  There, social values and the welfare costs combined with social injustice and created their crisis.

When you talk war, you are talking logistics.  You can sink below the starvation line and accept that... you can fight that... you can change your society to add value.  Middle East Islam is very inefficient.  Those societies will never provide for themselves within their social structure.  There is no "grabbing the brass ring".  There is only "knocking one off their high horse".

Envy breeds hate.  Evil needs hate.  Collective societal values typically breed envy.  Where is the happy medium?

There's your circle.  There's your sign.

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 09:48 | Link to Comment johny2
johny2's picture

I think no one who sinks bellow the starvation line accepts that. They just wait until there is enough of them to make an Army. 

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 08:02 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

There will be no war between two nuclear armed powers until there is a reliable defense against nuclear weapons, which will probably be never, as there are lots of sneaky ways to deliver a nuke.

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 08:16 | Link to Comment Silver Shield
Silver Shield's picture

I predicted the Elite will blame the fall of the dollar on China.

http://dont-tread-on.me/2011-doom-is-6-months-away/

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 05:15 | Link to Comment Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

I swear if one more person on ZH calls CNY the yen, I'm going to lose it.

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 05:26 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

I thought the Chinese had been fixing the Yen for years...

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 05:50 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Look the powers that be have a frikkin obsession with 3 letter symbols for every goddamn thing. Whether it's currency or a fucking airport or a fucking goverment agency it doesn't matter.

All these currency's are going to SDR of LOL.

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 06:45 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

CNY = easily misinterpreted for the Yen, and also its the same symbol just as the CAD, AUD = USD $

 

But youre right, people should learn its: yuan.

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 06:12 | Link to Comment Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

Asian currencies to appreciate against greenback in second half, ‘Mr Yen’ says, 28 April 2011, by Amy Su, Staff Reporter (Taipei Times) http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2011/04/28/2003501848

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 06:13 | Link to Comment Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Infration big probrem.

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 07:09 | Link to Comment ivars
ivars's picture

China sending inflation back to the USA.

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 07:14 | Link to Comment equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

Its comforting to know theres a country more fucked than us.  The Chinese Miracle economy will disappear faster up its own asshole than a CDO.

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 07:43 | Link to Comment qmhedging
qmhedging's picture

Some rumored Yuan may get an one-off appreciation of 10% against dollar in the Labor Day holiday?to kill inflation. Isn’t that crazy? Maybe for the La Nina?

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 07:48 | Link to Comment johny2
johny2's picture

Transitory.

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 07:46 | Link to Comment ivars
ivars's picture

See how nicely USA stimulating effects on DJIA pattern follows those of Greek government on Athens index in 2009. The USA seems to be very close to Greece in some financial behaviour aspects. Hence the future may also be the same:

http://www.saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&p=32056#p32056

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 08:40 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

very astute and relevant charts...I hope for the US its not bull's eye bingo!

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 07:52 | Link to Comment goldfreak
goldfreak's picture

should we buy the yuan?

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 07:56 | Link to Comment IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

US dolla 18 year chinese holla

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 08:10 | Link to Comment WakeyWakey
WakeyWakey's picture

Will Pandas go up in value compared to Eagles ?

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 09:11 | Link to Comment alus
alus's picture

No. The name of this currency is not yuan but RENMINBI - people's money ;)

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 09:30 | Link to Comment youALREADYknow
youALREADYknow's picture

Easiest trade in the business.

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 09:50 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Buy silver, the dollar is devaluing vs the yuan.

 

Oops. The yuan is where it was 18 years ago, when silver was trading below $5.

 

Can you say bubble?

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 12:35 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Crack doesn't begin to describe the arguments going on in the offices of the Central Government.

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