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Chris Martenson Exclusive: New Photos Of Fukushima Reactors
Submitted by Chris Martenson
Exclusive: new photos of Fukushima reactors
Noting that the press has largely turned its resources off of the Fukushima complex, and needing up-to-date information on the status of the damage control efforts there, we secured the most up-to-date satellite photo from DigitalGlobe (dated March 31st), which we analyze below. This is the first photo of the damaged reactor site at Japan's Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear facility made available to the public in over a week. That means you, our readers, are the first public eyes anywhere to see this photo.
Drawing upon the expertise of our resident nuclear engineer and Ann Stringer, imaging expert, we conclude that the situation at Fukushima is not stabilized: things are not yet at a place of steady progress in the containment and clean-up efforts. It's still a dance, forwards and backwards, with the workers making gains here and there and the situation forcing them to react defensively.
In this report, we will tell you what we know for sure, what we are nearly certain of, and what we remain forced to speculate about.
Here is a portion of a much larger image (covering 25 square kilometers in total) showing the reactor complex as of March 31, at roughly mid-day:
Photo Credit, 2011, DigitalGlobe
What We Can See
Here's what we can directly observe in the larger satellite image:
- Steam is still rising from reactors #2, #3 (circled in green) and #4.
- Of the four reactor buildings, three are nearly or totally destroyed, while the outside (at least) of the fourth is in relatively better shape.
- We can count 7 fire trucks 'on site' with another 7 just to the north, all with water lines strung out across the ground.
- There is only one ship/vessel to be seen, located inside of the breakwater and nearly as far to the north as it can go inside that boundary.
- A significant number of the vehicles that can be seen at the core of the site have not moved since the first released photos on March 12.
- There is a parking lot slightly to the north and west with approximately 250 passenger vehicles in it and a side lot with 30 large green tanks neatly arranged in rows.
- The rest of the area is one, two, and four lane roads (no traffic at all), worked farmland, residential and commercial areas, mostly empty parking lots, and two baseball diamonds.
Here's what we don't see
- Nowhere in the 25 km area in the main photo can we find anything that looks like a staging area with a large collection of assets such as tanker trucks, pumpers, cement trucks, piles of pre-staged materials, ambulances, and fire trucks.
- The cement pumper truck seen a week ago has been apparently replaced by the boom at reactor #4.
- There's no obvious barge delivering fresh water for the rector cooling efforts as recently reported (it may have come and gone?).
- Any obvious changes to the roofs of any of the reactors.
- Any people outside the plants working.
Things we can logically conclude
The steam that is venting is a mixed blessing. It implies that cooling water is getting to some hot material, which is a good thing, but it also means that something is hot enough to vaporize water and the continued release of radioactivity into the surrounding environment.
This means that the lack of steam coming from reactor #1 is either a very good sign, or a very bad sign. Good because it could mean that the containment vessels are intact and cooling water is circulating. Bad because it could imply that no water is getting to it and it is a very hot mass right now. According to TEPCO, reactor #1 has had seawater, and now freshwater, circulating through the reactor vessel - and since both containment vessels are intact, we'll conclude the lack of steam is a good sign.
The situation at Fukushima is going to drag on for years. First there's the matter of stabilizing the situation which has not yet been fully achieved. Recent surprises in terms of the amounts and locations of radioactivity are one sign that the situation is not fully stabilized. Still, nothing has blown up in quite a while, the steam venting appears consistent, and the major surprises seem to be over for now. While the TEPCO workers are still reacting to things as they arise, these are smaller things than last week, which is another hopeful sign.
The detected presence of neutron beams, I-134, and radioactive chlorine are all strongly supportive of the idea that criticality has resumed. Our best guess is that these are localized pockets, probably of short duration, and do not involve the entire core mass of any particular reactor conflagrating in some gigantic, greenish blob of uncontrolled fission. The geometries of the fuel in relation to neutron moderators requires precise conditions to support sustained fission and so it is rather unlikely to be occurring in anything other than localized pockets. If the entire reactor in its fully operational state was capable of supporting what we might scale to 100% fission, the amount of fission happening after a partial (or complete) meltdown will be a far lesser percentage. Still, any amount of fission is unwelcome at this point because it is adding to the heat and radiation removal difficulties.
The constantly rising levels of radioactivity found in the seawater are a further unwelcome development, but without a proper isotope analysis we cannot conclude anything about the potential resumption of fission from their gross amounts alone. It's always possible that the leftover fission products are now being washed in larger amounts into the sea for some reason.
Additional Drone Photos
These are the most detailed photos yet to emerge into the public space (released yesterday, March 31, as far as I know), and they are purported to come from a drone flyover on March 20 and 24th. They are really quite good, and worth viewing in their entirety here.
Beginning with reactor 3, one thing we can say is, this thing is a right proper mess:
(Source for all that follow)
There's a significant hole to the left of center that goes deep into the sub-structure (with a strange greenish cast that we've not been able to resolve after much conjecture) and it's clear that this building alone will take a long time to resolve.
Interestingly, we get our clearest image yet of the hole in turbine building #3 that was created by something ejected into the air during the reactor #3 explosion.
Looking like one of those cartoon cutouts that happens when the coyote hits the ground, we get the impression that whatever it was happened to be quite heavy and possibly shaped like an Apollo capsule. It has been my suspicion, which contradicts the official story, that the concrete containment vessel was what actually blew up in reactor #3 and I have been looking for evidence of in the form of large, heavy chunks of concrete (especially the refueling plug) lying about. I don't know what made this hole in the roof of the turbine building, but it was heavy.
Reactor #4 provides us with proof that serious damage can result from the effects of an overheated spent fuel storage pool:
Here the watering boom can be clearly seen. A camera was recently attached to the boom and it took some interior shots which were suggestive of the idea that the spent fuel pool is damaged and largely drained of water. Spraying water into this pool, then, is probably a balancing act with the desire to spray enough water on the rods to keep them cool being offset by the risk of having radioactive water drain away for parts unknown.
Almost certainly this same balancing act defines the efforts for reactors #2 and #3 as well.
Conclusions
The efforts at Fukushima are probably weeks away from even basic stabilization and we are years away from any sort of a final resolution. This crisis is going to be with all of us for a very long time. Radiation will continue to escape from the complex into the environment for weeks at best, months or years at worst.
The chief concern here is that things might still take a turn for the worse whereby radiation spikes to levels that prevent humans from getting close enough to perform meaningful operations and work on the site. If the radiation spikes high enough it will force an evacuation from the vicinity complicating every part of what has to happen next from monitoring to remediation.
The general lack of staged materials anywhere in the vicinity indicates that authorities have not yet decided on a plan of action, feeding our assessment that they are still in 'react mode' and that we are weeks away from nominal stabilization.
On Thursday we learned from the Wall Street Journal that TEPCO only had one stretcher, a satellite phone, 50 protective suits, and only enough dosimeters to give a single one to each worker group. Given this woeful level of preparation it is not surprising to see that regular fire trucks, cement trucks, and a lack of staged materials comprise much of the current damage control mix.
We don't yet know enough to conclude how much fission has spontaneously re-occurred, but we have strong suspicions that the number is higher than zero. Here we make our call for the release of more complete and timely radiation readouts and sampling results by TEPCO and Japan so that we can assess what the true risks are. The situation remains fluid and quite a lot depends now on chance and which way the wind blows.
And as I detailed in the Alert report I issued soonafter the tragic events of the Japan earthquake and tsunami on March 10th, the impact of Japan's tribulations on the global economy will be large and vast. World markets are simply unpreapared for the third-largest economy to suddenly and violently downshift. The persisting crisis at Fukushima simply worsens the picture.
As always, we'll continue montioring developments closely and reporting our findings and conclusions on this site.
best,
Chris
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I also wonder why some grown ups from other countries with nuke experts are not insisting on this coming under international control or at least international oversight...put a retired general from country in charge of an international task force, perferrably a guy that has weathered a few crisis management situations in his career well, built a task force of the best nuke engineers, medical, environmental and construction people, figure out shor tan dleng trem priorites and get to work, monitoring, invesitgating near and far, fixin, haulign building domes or under gournd concrete walls or water is needed...TEPCO should be relieved of command...
Greenpeace taking readings 40KM away from Fukushima reading 9999 Counts Per Second ! (not per minute) I see now someone posted above
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xhx3qn_japon-l-equipe-de-greenpeace-effectue-des-mesures-de-radioactivite-autour-de-fukushima_news
thank you for the link. I believe in the video he said about 90 per second were normal, is that correct?
3egg: When the Bluefin and other fish swimming for the last 3 weeks within 25 klics of reactors 1-4 suddenly appear floating belly-up off Sendai, will the GreenPeace observers report that, or are they forever beholden to some deeper, ulterior, political objective ???
Who knows, but we have enough people to triple check.
Just a side ot note here. they closed down thedirty.com today. FBI and homeland insecurity closed it for some reason. the place is a real rag, no doubt, but its all about free speech and i propose they will get around to do the same thing here before too much longer. stay tuned on that one......
here is nik richie twitter account
http://twitter.com/nikrichie
you can see the homeland security warning on the website now at
www.thedirty.com
Are you kidding - yes, April 1st...
busted
http://static.thedirty.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/head.jpg
vs a real seizure
http://torrent-finder.com/IPRC_Seized_2010_11.gif
Information On The 'Net Regarding the Dangerous Situation in Japan is more TRUTHFUL, concise and helpful versus what is cleared by GE before it goes on the AIR, because they have so much invested in N. Power Plants.
This is why viewership of Nightly News is steadily diminishing.
Its just my opinion but viewing this is Very Helpful, if I have a family in Japan and want to protect them and make the right decision on what to do.
****************************** From WRH.com
Nuclear Fuel Pool Has NO WATER, RODS EXPOSED - Plutonium Could Become VolatileUploaded by NotForSale2NWO on Apr 1, 2011
Arnie Gundersen of Fairewinds Associates
http://fairewinds.com/home
Video From
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StYxRtKfzmA&feature=channel_video_title
The Intel Hub
http://theintelhub.com
http://theintelhubradio.com
FAIR USE NOTICE: This video may contain copyrighted material. Such material is made available for educational purposes only. This constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in Title 17 U.S.C. section 106A-117 of the US Copyright Law.
Informative about the situation at #4 and exposed spent fuel rods. Thanks
Can someone explain this whole "junking" nonsense? It seems rather 3rd grade. Now watch me get a gazillion junk.....lol
It's OK: Plus 3 (-1X-3) junks, times [(Minus 3) X (+1{X-3, plus x^3})] = ZERO = Don't touch my Junk !
Maybe I wrote that wrong...but you're OK...
I can. As you will see you have a few junks. Those are the individuals who are now your shrill groupies. They will relentlessly pursue you throughout the forums you post to. They are usually to pussified to actually confront you on a subject, but are utterly offended when you confront them with the truth.
Interesting. And what exactky happens to th e"junkie" and "junker"? I've seen very well thought out and reasonable comments with multiple "junks". Sorry for the inquiry as I am not trolling. Second day on ZH. Overall, a very informative and intelligent site.
Kudos to Mr. Durden and staff.
I junked you for fun, I have honored you and your bravery for posting. You can even junk yourself and unjunk if you click the junk button again. At the 50 junks mark your posts disappear.
I am proud of my junks. I like having junk in my trunk. We can have fun with it. Junk me please.
MsCreant, I would junk you but I am to drunk to hit the junk button to junk!
Did you ever check out the piece 'falak pema' penned for you in the "The Bears Are Back - Presenting Part 5 Of The Silver "Thesis"?
It was quite good!
I junked her because it was politely requested. Then I unjunked her. Your previous post gives great insight about the mentality of those involved, so thankyou.
I junked it for fun.
Homey should also be aware that commenting on divisive subjects (Jews/Palestine, contrarian PM views, religeon, race, etc) in a 'strident' manner will likely have the Junk Monkies out in force (surprise) but it takes a true genius to be able to piss off BOTH sides of the 'tirade'.
From a personal POV -- I junk bullshit and mis-/disinformation -- espescially if the writer won't listen or is blind to reason or reasonable logic or is so dogmatic of opinion that his/her viewpoint has degenerated to being based upon "faith". I don't junk errors but I sound like a pedant pointing them out.
Most peeps here are looking for truth of one form or another. That's admirable.
(OK ya groupie troll-trash onlookers -- git a-junkin'!!)
No junk for you from me.
I think a like/dislike rating like Mish's site has would be a bit better.
I would really like an 'ignore' button for certain posters.
But, all in all, once you get used to the local customs, this is an outstanding
place to hang out.
Lots of really smart, witty, and sharing people post here.
Since it seems the paid trolls routinely junk sensible posts that contradict their talking point lists, if you are not getting a few junks you are not doing any good.
A useful and simple ZH software improvement would be to display a 'junks given out' count after a use's name on their own posts. That would flag the trolls quite clearly.
Also an 'hours logged in during the last 24 hours' count would be another good shill warning.
I rarely junk, and only if the junk request forms are properly filled out in triplicate with BOTH carbon copies and mimeographs.
The false impression that many blogs are leaving Americans with is that the situation is under control and that there will not be long term effects from this mess on the US mainland. Nothing could be further from the truth. First of all, it's already getting into the water, soil, vegetables and milk, maybe not in alarming amounts, but nevertheless it's now adding up into dosage of the average American's total lifetime dose.
The other problem is that untill it's fully contained and controlled, this accident will keep the giving of the gift of radioactive contamination, increasing in magnitude untill it is contained in Japan. Until it's contained, no one can say anything with responsible certainty about contamination anywhere on the globe.
The inarticulate, false, major premise that undermines almost all of the otherwise reassuring Japanese declarations regarding 1) air and water dilution and 2) half-life radiation reduction, is that the source of the radiation has been contained.
Until the German and other remote-controlled 60' plus concrete-pumping cranes arrive next week and later succeed in covering the open reactor containments - and the leakage beneath the reactors into the sea is also contained, as was Chernobyl's melt-down into the earth contained by the digging and concrete filling of tunnels, Fukushima will remain the biologic and human gift that keeps on giving, and radiating - authoritative declaratory reassurances notwithstanding.
"as was Chernobyl's melt-down into the earth contained by the digging and concrete filling of tunnels"
Whatever you read on the subject, you didn't understand it....
The tunneling and the concrete slab, as Wikipedia understands it:
The designing of the sarcophagus started on May, 20, 1986. Subsequent construction lasted for 206 days, from June to late November of the same year.[2] The first task before construction started was to build a cooling slab under the reactor to prevent the hot nuclear fuel from burning a hole in the base. Coal miners were called up to dig the necessary tunnel below the reactor and by June 24, 1986 four hundred coal miners had built the 168 metre (551 ft) long tunnel.[4] When the building became overly radioactive it became impossible to directly screw down the nuts and bolts or apply any direct welding to the sarcophagus, so this work was done by robots.[1] The seams of the sarcophagus, however, were not properly sealed
There is a simple pill that you can make at home in case of fallout. It is supplied in every nuclear emergency kit in Russia and available in Denmark and Sweden. Unfortunately it is not sold in North America.
Fortunately, however, the pill is quite simple to make. Ahead of time, obtain a quantity of potassium iodide from your local drug store. Five dollars worth should be lots. When needed, take a regular glass and fill it a fourth or less full of water, and then slowly start pouring in the potassium iodide while thoroughly stirring the water.
Don't worry about how much you pour in. You cannot pour in too much. After a while you will notice that the chemical no longer dissolves in the water. It just lies there on the bottom. This means that the water is saturated. You can now stop pouring in the chemical. More will not help or hurt.
Next take an eyedropper, or a soaked piece of paper if you do not have an eyedropper, and drop four drops onto a little piece of bread for an adult. Or two drops for a child. If you get several times that amount it is not going to harm you (although in much larger amounts it is a poison).
Now take some butter or margarine and make a little ball out of the bread and pop it down. Tastes awful. Ugh. Take once a day for 100 days after the last bomb falls. This is good stuff and you should have it around for reasons other than defense in case of a nuclear war.
If you live anywhere within in a couple of hundred miles of a nuclear generating plant you might suddenly find yourself needing the stuff. The US department of Health rushed a supply of pills to Three Mile Island and they have a standard brochure all printed ready for distribution in case it or some similar site vents.
The department of defense also keeps a supply near the old Titan sites that are deteriorating and breaking down. [Author's update note: Once again those sites have been now decommissioned and no longer present a problem, but much greater concerns now arise from Terrorist Threat, and the U.S. Government is now stockpiling in many cities not only these pills but others for Bateriological and Chemical Threats]. Canadians have nothing. I'll take that back. They do have lots of nuclear plants and the distinct possibility of bombs exploding over their heads and on their soil.
The reason why the potassium iodide works is that the thyroid will absorb only so much iodine. After that, any iodine taken into the body is passed off by the kidneys. Since the body already has all the good stuff it wants it passes out the bad stuff. This is what we call thyroid blocking.
Do not try to use the tincture of iodine that you put onto cuts. Taken internally it will kill you. And you cannot eat enough iodized salt to do you any good. You would get salt poisoning long before you got sufficient iodine to do the job
Focus on the kelp!
Dried kelp + water. Tastes much better.
Also, where are you going to find bread and butter for 100days post nuclear war? lol..
That's one of the dumbest fucking comments I've read. seriously. Go back to school son. Far worse than Fukushima has happened before, we're just exceedingly better at measuring radiation now to the nano-RAD... to the n'th degree as this site has demonstrated most un-gracefully (being very generous) over the last few weeks. You want nuclear fallout? been there, done that. pull your head out of your fourth point of contact my friend:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAnqRQg-W0k\
http://freedomofoceania.blogspot.com
That's one of the dumbest fucking comments I've read, seriously. Given the [in]accuracy of your own forecasts, maybe you should tone down your rhetoric here ... save it for your blog.
Here is what you posted here a week or so ago:
Fission stopped? Heat residual? Safer now than a week ago? Give me a break! NOBODY knows the true situation on the ground, so playing it down is no less irresponsible than playing it up.
ZH is merely reporting what little they can find ... the commenters are where the hype (in both directions) is coming from. You are part of that hype.
+10 mCi 99Tcm
Every single one of the atmospheric and underwater tests was fresh i134 and i131 not to mention all the other immediate fission products and actinides all burned up, mixed with water, dirt, and soot, all deposited from a high altitude.
FAS posted a bunch of statistical information on the tests, including expected cancers from iodine.
The situation at fukushima is a catastrophe, but there is too much end of the world nonsense about it going around.
I have it! Beelzebub Ben should promptly dispatch a flotilla of US military helicopters to dump a shitload of Federal Reserve Notes on these reactors. A few billion should do the trick - preferably freshly printed since the pretty green ink will have a calming effect on the fissionable materials that are overheating, much like the US economy. Problem solved.
There must be some Japanese or other insiders who know exactly how bad this is and what is not being said.
How long before a furstrated insider(s) start leaking to the blogs.
Message to Japanese people: The government, industry and beaurocrats will fry you like bacon by the millions before revealing any truths that would hurt their wealth or power.
I think when Naota Kan said "the situation allows for no optimism", that was a big clue. Certainly made my heart sink.
Here is the real kicker!
It is human nature to think that now that the Tsunami has passed that it may be decades for another.
TEPCO should be working with the idea that there may be another Tsunami next week.
That is the type of urgency required
historical data shows large earthquakes occurring in Japan increasing in frequency since the 1990s.
It could be sooner than they want to know.
Soup line workers at the Fukushima plant? There aren't any left.
Chris,
Former Naval Nuke. I have come to a simalar conclusion.
http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2011/04/engineering-report.html
It's the end of the world as we know it and I am drunk!
I mean really, does anybody really give a flying fuck anymore as to what the end game will be? We all bitch into the Ether hoping the next guy will light the fire of revolt, and all we get is more words.
Is it not better just to be drunk and stupid, and maybe when you wake up tomorrow you can do it all over again in hopes that the next day will be better? Even in your heart, know it will not?
I am sick of human tragedy, ignorance, and the dream of Utilitarianism.
I am an island here me roar! FU, John Donne!!
My opinion of Chris Martenson has dropped considerably. I would expect much better from an "engineer". It's clear he doesn't have the foggiest idea how reactors work, how the resultant radiation manifests itself, or even how basic fission works! (FYI, Fission stopped when they scrammed the F*ing reactors. Fission can't restart unless conditions are perfect and fastidious, something that is clearly, and deliberately maintained to be not the case. As a technical and engineering backgrounded person myself, who works with real engineers daily, I'm quite offended by blatenty idiotic comments by people who clearly don't know what the hell they are talking about! Chris, this article is speculative and shameless disaster pornography-gossip-bullshit, fit for the cover of "The Globe". I would expect far better from an "engineer"...
Clearly you are an arrogant idiot with an agenda who hasn't read the thread or the commentary of other experts in the industry who state that fission could start up again (hence the addition of boric acid to the water sprayed on the fuel rod pool). And also in you keeness to shill for tptb you neglect the other link here that showed that fission has started up spasmodically with flashes of fission.
You are an engineer? I doubt it very much.
My guess is sockpuppet, shill or nuclear industry groupie.
You sir, are a dumbfuck. That much is clear. Fission is a very tricky condition, that can be inhibitited by a number of conditions alone. It occurs in nature, but very rarely with the presence of a moderator (usually water) with a proper mass of fissionable material. In Fukushima, you have several inhibiting conditions combined (control rods, boron, sub-optimal moderator condition) that prevents fission, but any one of which would suffice. To believe "fission" is occuring requires you get your science knowledge from the fucking Loony Tunes...
I work for the interest of truth. If you stand in the way of truth, expect to be stricken down, sometimes harshly. There are plenty of injustices and hidden bullshit that goes on, but this subject because it involves "Radiation" which evokes feelings of scary voodo magic from many of the unwashed and uneducated has created a spectacle. Get the fuck over it. There's 20,000 dead/missing in Japan, and the reactor hasn't contributed to 1 or 1/16th yet. Pull your fucking head out!
Sgt, I suggest you Google stuff before you post. IAEA thinks recriticality is possible and outlines it:
http://www.iaea.org/inis/collection/NCLCollectionStore/_Public/31/055/31...
Everyone is hung up on "neutron moderators" and fails to grasp simple "critical mass (density)".
I am pro-nuke, but facts-is-facts. Fission is occuring. Don't let your personal feelings blind you just as the anti-nuke folks do.
You, sir, have been officially served by Selah. How does it feel? How does it feel to come on here and publicly make a fool of yourself, by acting like an arrogant twat?
I don't normally rub people's noses in it, but man, you come in here like you have a clue what you're talking about, insult numerous people more intelligent than you, and turn out to be laughably wrong.
"I have an engineering background, so you're all idiots!" Ha, right. Apparently being involved in a vaguely related field qualifies you to berate everyone else and defy the world's leading experts on the subject.
Go cry it out, pal, and come back when you aren't such a douchebag.
That's the ticket!
More remarkably, the Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco), which owns the power station, has warned: "The possibility of re-criticality is not zero".
Uh.
1. Blue flashes
2. Neutron beams
3. I-134
4. Cl (I forget the isotope)
Now the above are fairly definative (in combination) for a criticality event.
And one must keep in mind that the losses from radiation are going to be long term. You can take a dose that is certain death and live on for months. Smaller doses will shorten your life. Until we get to doses small enough that they actually lengthen your life (radiation hormesis).
Tsunami - immediate losses
Radiation - dead men walking & shortened life spans
So when you say YET you are really making the point that the deaths will come.
This former Naval Nuke concurs.
apparenty, by replying to kina, you are agreeing w/kina.
Yes.
sorry to pop your bubble, Mr. Wizard, but if you think "all fission stopped" I can recommend a great deal on a bridge in one of NYC's 5 burroughs. If you think they properly scrammed, when they were in full blown panic mode, then why is the situation yet to stabilize ?
Well, he surely missed that Japan has arranged for the delivery of 5 gargantuan, remote-controlled pumper-cranes to be flown in next week for the purpose of 1) cooling with water, and then 2) covering with concrete the fuel rods and the reactor cores.
Not to mention the ommission of tunneling under and filling with concrete a containment foundation beneath the reactors, as was done under Chernobyl.
ya know, i missed it, too!, as did tyler, it would seem. can we please get the link?
http://www.pmw.de/cps/rde/xchg/pm_online/hs.xsl/9380_ENU_HTML.htm
Reports in the media about the Putzmeister concrete pump in Fukushima, Japan. (Putzmeister saves the world)
http://www.pmw.de/cps/rde/xchg/SID-3C6E00FC-308BEA2B/pm_online/hs.xsl/Co...
Putzmeister truck-mounted concrete pump is used to cool Fukushima. Also, pics of these trucks as used at Chernobyl.
http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/03/worlds-largest-concrete-pumps-going-t...
i've seen the one onsite and read the comments, which are pretty good.
didn't see about the others comin in. thanks THz!
Pumps on their way to Japan here: http://chronicle.augusta.com/latest-news/2011-03-31/srs-concrete-pump-heading-japan-nuclear-site
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/1120217/1/.html
I am impressed by a man who wades into an intelligent thread with the intent of singlehandedly converting it into his own personal ignorance swap meet.
But I'm worried no one will follow your brave lead, so let me now trade you my own moronic, uninformed ideas for yours.
Yeah, fission CAN'T start. Never! No way. It stopped on scram 4ever! I know because I live next door to an "engineer" and know someone who knows one, or something, I think. Dude. Rock on.
What else you got?
"Fission can't restart unless conditions are perfect and fastidious"
Apparently the piles of burnt fuel rod debris in the bottom of the SFPs of #1, 3 or 4 are not listening to you lecturing them on fission table-manners.
ALERT! 20110402 - Flashing blue lights seen above Fukushima GOING CRITICAL. FISSION !!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRoIpMNTbcQ
(See also Gundersen's http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTpr6Id_Wbw Neutron Beams Detected at Japan Fukushima 20110323 )
Also, the tone of your post (and reply below) suggest you are either a troll or an idiot.
Also, the tone of your post (and reply below) suggest you are either a troll or an idiot.
I think both is a definite possibility.
sustained high power fission can't sustain, but there are natural nuclear reactors
and the shifting configuration at Fukushima is probably flashing in and out.
In the big scheme of things it's minor details, but did you know that TEPCO didn't have the regular radiation monitoring systems at the plant until April 1? And the workers there only have one docimeter per work group? From my blog:
http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/04/fukushima-i-nuke-plant-now-they-tell-...
good stuff you got going on over there, thanks for the work.
You are ex-skf!
Cheers to you! And a huge thanks for all the work!
Do you know why http://www.ustream.tv/channel/nhk-world-tv stopped web broadcasts on 20110325? Translators exhausted, government edict, or ran out of money for the bandwidth? They didn't say why, just announced they were stopping. So I'd go with government edict.
Also thanks for explaining why a nuclear plant has only a few dosimeters - 'tsunami washed thousands away' - sigh. Of *course* they had their plant safety offices exposed to the sea, not on top of that hill. Why not?
NHK also stopped allowing the live feed to one of the Japanese live stream site. Looks like they want you to watch it at their own site, because, as they said at the onset of this crisis when Nikkei Shinbun asked to use NHK footage on their website, it is not fair that people view NHK's work elsewhere, when NHK put so much money and effort creating these videos.
It doesn't matter to them whether it is a national crisis of gigantic proportion. They are forever bureaucrats. Petty ones at that.
and have you seen this? low flyover video taken by the drone over Fukushima I plant.
http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/04/fukushima-i-nuke-plant-close-up-flyov...
Yeah, saw those videos. But none of the heli-videos come close to those excellent hi-res images from cryptome.
Re NHK... but http://www.ustream.tv/channel/nhk-world-tv was them, not 'elsewhere', no? Currently I don't know of any English language live Japan-originated web broadcasts.
here is the origination of the ustream feed.
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/
Baseball season started yesterday!!!
SgtShaftoe said "Fission can't restart unless conditions are perfect and fastidious,". That must explain the natural reactors that burned for 100,000 plus years in Africa millions of years ago. Fukoshima has already given off brief neuton beams = brief re-criticalities = fission, for sure. We have extra plutonium that can separate from the uranium it is mixed with after melting. God help us if that melted blob gets whacked by another blob of plutonium.
We have lost containment in these reactors as the pictures posted today show = melted and melting fuel rods.
I suggest you think a little more deeply about the matter. We are going to be very lucky if this is only as bad as Chernobyl
It's already far worse.
When are people going to open their fuckin' eyes?
Are you people really this stupid? Or is it just flat out denial?
....keep hoping this isn't worse than Chernobyl. If that's what it takes for you to sleep at night.
the former it would seem to me, bob_d.
IF: the IAEA puts chernobyl @ 7
AND: Fuku is a 6
THEN: Fuku is not "as bad" as chernobyl.
they wouldn't lie to us, woud they? lol
whoopsie , the 6 is upside down
bob_da
Calm thoughts. Breathe in, breathe out.
Remember that, on along enough timeline...
It's what we're doing with the time we have.
RE 13 neutron beams,whats the source of this info? satelite?
NEUTRON BEAMS CAUSE ANY METAL IN THEIR PATH TO BECOME
RADIOACTIVE.BOTH PAST AND FUTURE FISSION could be tracked by this.
Of cource the place is so heavily laden now with this pollution that it doesn't matter
Depends on the beam intensity, the "temperature" of the neutrons, the capture cross section of the material, the half life/decay chain of the activated material, and probably a few other things I have forgotten.
And if the beam is only an air beam. Well you will not be collecting any metal for analysis. And if the metal contacted by the beam was in a high radiation area? You will not be collecting any metal for analysis.
Per fissioning after a reactor scram, it does happen...how much it happens depends on the past duty cycle of the reactor. If a reactor has been operated at a constant high level of heat for a considerable period, then it is possible for about 7% of steady state power to remain as a product of decay heat. If a reactor fully Scrams - and it should, even in an earthquake as the accelerometers at the site detect ground movement and cause an automatic shutdown - most of the prompt neutrons will go away quickly, as they only exist for fractions of a second anyway. But, about .65% of neurons are of the delayed type, which take some time to stop fissioning.
There has been some speculation that on at least one unit the control rods did not fully insert. This is unlikely in my view, but possible. In the event this does happen, the next step is to deploy the boron kill injection, which should poison the reactor core.
You are one of only a couple people I actually listen to. Half of the reason I listen to you and study your comments is because of your uber-rosey approach where I am scared shitless. I find great solice when I read stories of you shaving your head as to rid yourself of radioactive "fleas". I almost want to take you out to the bar and have a shot of plutonium with you or perhaps take a dip in a pool of spent fuel rods...nothing seems to phase you.
What do you make of the neutron beams, reports of blue light, and (super)recriticality?
I also find it strange that "steam" is coming from reactors that seemingly have no water running to them. This makes me believe that some of the meltdown (from where ever) is coming from corium that has hit natural water supply. Do you find any creedence in that? Ridiculous amounts of radiation in ground water would seem to confirm that.
They also have dumped boron on this bitch...and sea water, and fresh water.... it doesn't seem to be working and the more they do, the worse it gets. Would you agree there?
Also...the reports of deaths are being under reported (in my opinion) How could there be so many cars in the parking lot but everyone made it out? Did the workers outrun the tsunami? Any take there?
Thanks! Per the steam - or water vapor, it is my understanding that they are getting some quantity of water into the cores, and from my readings, that water is borated.
At this point I am still thinking there is severe rod damage, probably ballooning and some release of fuel pins, and possibly some melting. One of the units seems to have a suppression pool (Torus) issue, which is concerning...it could mean (unlikely) that the integrity of the core vessel is compromised ....but it could be radioactive water and debris pushed back into the Torus from a hung-open vacuum breaker. I do not think a corium reaction has occurred that has melted through the vessel, the drywell, and the thick foundation pad.
Neutron "beaming" can be caused by low-levels of criticality, plus you can also get a rebound effect by kinetic atmospheric reflection. This happens normally in other places that are under control, like radiographic NDT testing sites.
I am not sure it is getting worse, it seems to be they are in a kind of stasis....teetering on the edge of low then high radiation levels (probably caused by varying water levels).
One thing to keep in mind, although there are four of these units, they are roughly 500 MW each, with a reasonable level of containment, Chernobyl was a 3200 MW unit with very little containment.
Per the cars, I know they have been bringing a lot more people in to deal with a lot of peripheral issues, that is the only thing I can think of.
It is also my understanding that thermal decomposition of concrete with corium can yield steam as well as calcium carbonate and several different silicates....hmmmm
Some of the colors on different beams (and condition of said beams) from various videos seem to match up.
Also, we have not had any good footage of those reactors in over a week (those photos from this ZH post were taken over a week ago) I know because I saw those photos yesterday with tags from (March 20th - March 24th) albeit they were published for the first time yesterday (March 30th)
arnie gunderson says the same thing as ari in his (i believe) 3.30 video. too tired to look up. from memory, he said something to the effect that "they are on the edge of the abyss; not falling in, but not getting pulled back from the edge either."
he also seems to think that there is a tremendously high amount of radiation in the water that is pumped and going "somewhere" and also being constantly released into the environment---air and sea. so, with the reactors in "stasis," without the radioactive discharge, we could just relax, for a few days.
bob_d and i just opined that this is already worse than chernobyl. sounds like you think chernobyl is still out front and that the IAEA is correct in assigning a 6.
fuku = 500; chernobyl = 3,200. this is the amount of electricity generated. does this "ratio" also hold for the amount of fuel in the reactor core? are you saying there was 6.4 X as much uranium fuel as at a fuku reactor? if not, you certainly seem to be implying it. if i knew, i would be telling you instead of asking you...
"they are on the edge of the abyss; not falling in, but not getting pulled back from the edge either."
a metaphor for the 21st century as we know it so far?
Not an Abyss, but stuck in a tarpit.
You know they are dying but you can buy them time.
3200 vs 500...OK I can understand the direct comparison on a MW basis. But how do the spent fuel rods kept on their site fit into the hazard calculations? Last I heard there were over 600,000 spent fuel rods on site.
ari, i've learned more from you that any other zH, about this. i researched the company you recently mentioned, too, where you work or worked. the latter, i think, but not sure, ok?
assuming the rods deployed, how long with no coolant? how long before the "next step kill solution" was applied? how many SFPools without water? for how long? how much core degradation due to the conditions? how much cladding went liquid? hot cores dripping into pools of corium?
any possibility any of these actual conditions could lead to a little "chain reaction" here & there?
Thank you! Well, this is guessing on my part. But, if you assume a full rod insertion, then the boron kill injection would probably not have been deployed, since at the time it would probably not have been deemed necessary. It appears they went on generators until the Tsunami killed them, and it seems batteries worked for about an hour after that. If the earthquake did not damage it, they have about an hour of duration for the backup steam-driven pump system to work. Normally, when things start to stack up like this, you deploy the mobile generators that are kept for emergencies, but it seems the Tsunami did a number on them.
This was a station blackout event, which everyone trains for, However....when I went through it, nobody mentioned this kind of dual disaster that would kill all potential sources of power in a matter of an hour or so.
With all power dead, and reactors scrammed, they would have had around four hours before the rods started coming uncovered. In my mind, the type of radionuclides emitted, and the hydrogen explosions show that they started venting excess vessel pressure after the rods had been damaged. It is impossible for me to say how low the water got in each unit, and duration of same. I do not think they know for sure, since it seems they had to abandon the control rooms for some period of time.
A Corium reaction that breached the core vessel would not allow any pressure to be maintained in the vessel afterwards, and per their data, they seem to be doing that.
The spent fuel pools are even more of an unknown. But, I have looked at all the pictures, and none of them prove to me that the pools are compromised. Yes, it is easy to say...look at all the damage, they must be screwed, but I cannot say that with certainty. The damage to the metal panels on the buildings does not play into this, the possibility of the refueling crane down on the deck is more worrisome. I have little doubt that the SFRs came uncovered, and that will let loose a lot of radiation. If a pool is damaged, and rods have been ejected, then you will see much more radiation. As a rule of thumb, spent fuel after a year of storage still creates about 10Kw of heat per ton.
Chain reactions in the classical sense (by low level enriched products) have to be moderated by something...water, graphite, etc., in order to slow down the prompt neutrons. It is theoretically possible, but more likely you will see emission of prompt neutrons with no significant chain reaction. It is my understanding that the neutrons so far detected have been of the prompt type.
t.y. ari! i think there may have been a corium pool reported and a lack of pressure in #2.
i edited my comment above and had a question there, also. prob a dumbass Q, but when i don't know something for sure, i tend somehow, to end up in the slammer! lol!
That speculation, or rumor, is very persistent in the Japanese message boards - that control rods didn't fully deploy. Fukushima I Nuke Plant had such an "event" back in 2007, I think, among many safety laxes and near disasters over the years.
But, about .65% of neurons are of the delayed type, which take some time to stop fissioning.
But the "some time" is on the order of minutes. You are not going to see beams of neutrons 3 days after shutdown from that .65%
Those may be prompt neutrons from fissile interaction, but this does not mean significant chain reacting - although it is possible. The test results I saw that were published showed prompt neutron activity...mainly by their Mev levels.
Prompt neutrons are not going to give you "beams" 1+ km from the core (reaction zone).
And ok you have waved that away. Now go for blue flashes. I-134. Cl (I forget which isotope).
Too many things that point to a criticality accident that have to be explained away.
Let us look at the "natural" reactor in Africa. How was that possible? Higher fraction of U235 than today. i.e. we would call it enriched. Well you well know that reactor fuel is enriched (up to 5% depending on boron loading and other things). So could a pile of crap like this in contact with water go critical - say the boron ran short for a few days and was washed out by the "flooding"? Maybe. And the evidence so far is that it did. And may still be doing so.
Let me add: if the crap is critical with fast neutrons (possible despite my above assertions) then TEPCO is in the deep because Boron is not going to be very effective. Its capture cross section goes down (to .01 barns IIRC which is not a lot) at high energies down from 4,000+ at thermal energies.
So if we have a reaction that can run on fast neutrons we are really screwed because boron is not going to be much help.
Hey Teamates, I was trying to check who might have "junked me" and junked myself by accident. i have never paid attention to it, and will not again. Just say what you truely believe is my general inclination.
Cus
Anyone with self-esteem doesn't give a shit about this.
Talk to your psychologist if it concerns you. This is totally off topic from the thread.
junk me, blow me, blow my junk...no one gives a shit how you feel about your junks.
I was watching some video from who knows what network, I think CNN and they were saying the Japanese "SUICIDE" workers near the reactors did not have enough radiation detectors, the ones worn on clothing, watch type detectors etc., can this be possible. I can't imagine in a CRISIS like this that everything available is not already there?
I mean we have workers, that are already sacrificing themselves for the "Greater Good" of their fellow citizens, neighbors, families, the WORLD.
Can it possibly be true that the POWERS IN CHARGE will not give them detectors because they do not want the real numbers for the RADIATION to get out.
Can it fucking BE??
upto date report on reactor's status
http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/EXPORT/projects/fukushima/plots/v6/Main.html
Just Out ! New flyover of Fukushima
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M22Gt4sswEA&feature=player_embedded
I junked you because that video isn't new at all - it came out on the 24th. It even says so on the page you linked to.
I just noticed it was the old video ran through anti shake software
thanks for the junk by the way !
Dr. Matthias Braun has just released this very informative PDF on the
Fukushima Daiichi Incident.
http://cryptome.org/0003/fukushima-areva.zip
Enjoy...
VERY LARGE concrete pumper trucks are being shipped to japan:
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/04/01/japan.nuclear.cement.pumper/...
And these expensive pumps are sent with one-way tickets and will be abandoned at Fukushima or nearby, as were the Russian helicopters and other contaminated equipment left in this graveyard near Chernobyl:
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=51.154397,+29.983299&ie=UTF8&ll=51.154397,29.983299&spn=0.001908,0.004984&t=h&z=18&iwloc=addr&om=0
Container shipping companies delivering containers to be unloaded north of Tokyo towards Fukushima are requiring the containers be purchased, because they do not want them returned to the ships. In several months goog may have a photo of the world's second radiation graveyard at Fukushima.
1000 milli-sievert water flowing into ocean from Reactor 2. TEPCO just announced.
http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/04/fukushima-i-nuke-plant-1000-milli.html
Who (or what) was measuring and using what methods/devices?
This is why I can't trust anything.
What if it was really 10 times that amount? Who is to know the difference if they say 1,000 milli-sieverts? Could be 10,000 milli-siverts, or 10,000,000 trillion sieverts. Who's wise to the difference?
All we know is TEPCO wants us to believe that 1,000 milli sieverts are being introduced to the ocean. That's all we know.
It is being reported as a crack in concrete at a "maintenance pit" at the edge of the site. I don't know what this means, unless they are talking about a rad-waste facility.
one of gunderson's vids showed a schematic with kinds of "footings" almost, some kinda trenching, possibly, with concrete or something in them. as i recall they come from under 1-4, under the turbine houses, and then butt to 2 lines which seemed to extend to 5 & 6., maybe beyond. his dealy didn't show. these 2 lines were parallel, past the turbines, and perp to the 4 lines from the reactors. i don't think he quite knew what to make of it, either.
he was trying to figure how 200,000 gal of pretty crappy "used" water was getting to the ocean, each day, since it didn't seem to be staying in the reactors and the sea readings were way way up there.
so, he postulated these trenches or footings or whatever they are as a possibility.
For what it's worth, I mapped out the watercourses visible in satellite images in the vicinity of Fukushima Dai-ichi. Here it is:
http://everist.org/pics/Fukushima/Fukushima_water_diag.jpg
A noteworthy point is that one storm water channel exits to the sea by passing UNDERNEATH the reactor complex, roughly between reactors 1 & 2. So this absolutely has to join up with the cooling water channels under the building. What's the chance all onsite runnoff is routed via this channel, and it joins the main cooling channel somewhere #2 inlet?
Something else possibly relevant- a large old abandoned coal-fired power station I'm familiar with has the main cooling water channel (huge) running directly underneath the basement floor, the entire length of the turbine building. You can see the logic - this makes cooling water available where ever it is needed.
It would not surprise me if Fukushima Dai-ichi has a similar arrangement.
Incidentally, notice google maps has updated their imagery to something fairly recent. No more nice clean 'before' view available.
I wonder what the contamination level is at that rainwater outlet to the south of the plant?
wow!
Well I don't know what the hell to do with it, but I have a good three pages on cesium inventories and release rates about ready to go. It is fucking insane going through all the steps involved. Not even a draft on the air dispersion and deposition yet, but a couple hours more work should fix that.
Bottom line, there is a lot of cesium inventory in the damaged buildings. I get 2,375 kg. All the hot spots are different (duh). So various release scenarios here. A lot of cesium would have come out as burst release from the rod cladding breaking down in the first couple of days. There is also a lot of release if temps get above about 2,000 degrees.
I am worried about the release that is probably happening now. In between a burst release and a high-temp release is just diffusion of the gas bubbles from deeper in the fuel. Experiments and modeling estimates that some 30% of the cesium in a 'typical' used rod might be up at the seams ready for burst release, with another 20% to come out in diffusive release (leaving half sitting there trapped in the rod). Let's say we got lucky and the main early release blew out to sea. Now we sit, watering our smoking ruin, and wait.
If the Austrian estimate is in the ballpark, I make it just 1.5-12 kg per day of cesium to get their 0.14-1.35 megacurie per day. That's 0.1-0.5% of inventory, so it adds up: diffusive cesium release would end up at 20% of inventory after a period of 11-85 years. In the ballpark for spent fuel fission products.
So something like half a Chernobyl per day. Now we do the seasonal wind analysis......more after some sleep and review.
Jim....the total MW of this thing (four reactors) is about 2000 MW, where Chernobyl was 3200 MW. Chernobyl had no realistic containment, and nobody is suggesting all four of these plants have suffered catastrophic rod failure. Those numbers just cannot, in my mind, be right.
Ari
He has math....
Do you have photos of all SIX reactors? Or the status of them? That are current.
Just because they can't be right in your mind doesn't mean they aren't right.
Bob:
You are right there, and I have not done the math, so will have to defer to Jim on this one. The number just strikes me as being outside my scope of reference on this thing. But, I will keep up with his numbers, since he seems to be putting a lot of thought and study into the matter, and I appreciate that.
Chernobyl unit 4 is/was 1,000 MW; each of units 2-3-4 is/was 784 MW; and there are multiples of core loads in the pools.
So:
Chernobyl = 3000MW
Fukushima = 3352MW
Standing by and ready to copy. Why are you in Minn.?
For the climate...and bundt cakes.
Given the reactors were designed by GE, I don't know why the Japanese would be motivated to do anything other than what they are: let it fizz; restrict the measuring. It's in the Japanese interest to let the radiation drift, because it's going right to the United States and, of course, GE. Meet the real weapon of mass destruction. The US military can do absolutely nothing about the radiation.
Apparently TEPCO is going to throw a bit of concrete on one of the reactors now. That will warm up the public for more concrete later on. I feel nicely massaged :)
It's noteworthy that not only was there no plan for disposal of radioactive waste, there was no plan for an earthquake/tsunami hitting in an earthquake/tsunami zone (unless you count hosing water and pouring concrete onto a steaming pile of radioactive slag as a plan). And the official attempts to suggest there was some kind of control. At least this debacle could be followed more usefully on Zero Hedge (yet again).
In my feeble mind the big question still (as noticed by many posters) is the fact that the Sov's tunneled under Chernobyl and pumped in countless yards/acres of concrete to prevent the core/slag cutting thru to the water table. How can this be possible at a site on the coast? Is it not inevitable that the core/slag will hit the water line. Then what?
Disclaimer: not a physicist/engineer/economist/lawyer/dem/rep
you can tunnel about anything if you really want to but groundwater right at surface no doubt, bedrock to tunnel with machine, and likely very radioactive groundwater...so likly cause more harm than good. But maybe bedrock below protects rad material from going too low...further away from plant they could use same technology that is used to contain any toxins in ground water, like a slurry wall, but maybe need to add lead :)
DEVELOPMENTS:
from Kyodo
The news about the number two crack matches the Areva presentation I posted earlier.
The megafloat, nitro injections, and the fact they have an operations center are all progress.
OK, here goes: sorry Tyler
Part 1 of 3
Estimating Radioactive Contamination from the Accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant
Fukushima Daiichi is one of Japan's largest power plants, and one of the fifteen largest nuclear power plants in the world. It is also one of the older plants in operation, encompassing both first-generation and more recent reactor designs among its six units. The newest unit is almost three times the size of Unit 1. As of this writing, April 1 2011, all six units are shut down amidst an emergency unique in history.
Very little information has so far emerged in the public domain that addresses the immediate need of the wider population. How severe is the accident? Will there be public health or long term environmental consequences? When will the emergency be over?
At public websites like www.zerohedge.com the user community has been attempting to provide relevant information as well as wider contextual and color commentary. The answer to the first question, severity, has been well demonstrated to be extremely severe, with all six reactors likely irreparably damaged, several partial meltdowns, loss of primary containment, loss of primary and backup cooling, and large scale radioactive releases. The last question, length of the emergency, has also been addressed and is at a minimum several years, as the reactors and spent fuel pools must be cooled while decay heat remains high enough to cause further damage. The remains of the plant will need to be looked after forever.
The central question, however, has only been addressed in broad terms. Clearly there is a lot of radioactive material at the plant site; clearly large releases are continuing. But there is no real quantification, little precise measurement, and little air dispersion modeling to inform the public. Here we attempt to address this part of the accident, three weeks into the developing and very dynamic situation.
Simply awesome stab at the data. Thank you and well done.
No idea why you got junked for this
2 of 3
Types and Amounts of Materials at the Site
There are five loaded reactor cores, six spent fuel storage pools and one large common fuel storage pool on site. Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) stores 11,125 fuel rod assemblies in the pools, with each assembly holding either 64 or 81 fuel rods for a total of approximately 800,000 fuel rods. 1,479 assemblies are at the Unit 4 pool, of which 548 are from the 'core load' removed for maintenance in December. At Unit 3, 32 assemblies in the pool are made of mixed plutonium-uranium or MOX fuel, as is the entire core load.
The cores themselves contain various numbers of fuel assemblies depending on the size of the units. Units 2, 3 and 4 are each 784 MW in rated electrical capacity, and each holds 548 fuel rod assemblies. So for perspective, each spent fuel pool holds about two core loads' worth of fuel rods, while the common fuel pool on site holds about 1.5 times again as many as Units 1-6 combined.
Setting aside the common fuel pool, then, there are roughly 18 core loads in the reactor buildings, counting both the reactor cores and the spent fuel pools. If we assume that Units 5 and 6 are stable, we can deduct six loads and discuss 12 loads in the badly damaged Units 1-4. Note, however, that the common pool and Units 5 and 6 remain dependent on timely cooling, which could be in question if an event forces workers to evacuate again for an extended period.
We can be more precise about the nuclear materials in the reactor buildings for Units 1-4. According to TEPCO, the total number of fuel rods in those buildings' spent fuel pools is 2,060 plus the core load from Unit 4, or 2,508 assemblies, or roughly 180,000 rods.
At 0.127 tons per assembly, this implies 431 tons of uranium within the damaged buildings' pools. There should be another 534 assemblies in the cores of Units 2 and 3 which are the same size as Unit 4, and about half that number in Unit 1. Adding these 1,335 assemblies brings the total to 3,843 assemblies, 280,000 rods, and 488 tons of uranium in the damaged units. The MOX fuel rods are about 3% plutonium which does not materially alter the analysis of fission products, our main concern here.
While there are several dozen substances that can be of concern in a nuclear accident, this analysis will focus on cesium-134 and cesium-137. Cesium has a long half-life, is easily incorporated into living organisms, and results in full body radiation exposure. It has been the major legacy of contamination from Chernobyl, and is the basis for the exclusion zones enforced in Eastern European countries today and for the foreseeable future.
Cesium is a fission product, produced by the splitting or decay of larger atoms of uranium (or plutonium, whether from MOX fuel blending or from plutonium produced in normal nuclear fuel reactions). Together with strontium, cesium produces most of the decay heat over a long period after a core is shut down.
Oak Ridge National Laboratory analyzed the core constituents at the Brown's Ferry nuclear plant as a 'reference unit' for boiling water reactors. In a 1,065 MW core, cesium was estimated at 429 kg given an extended period of fuel irradiation. For the slightly smaller 1,000 MW Chernobyl core the comparable figure would be 402 kg if the fuel was fully irradiated, but Chernobyl Unit 4 was only three years old. For the Fukushima Daiichi Units 2, 3 and 4 rated at 784 MW, 315 kg of cesium should be present in each core load of fuel. For the 460 MW Unit 1 185 kg of cesium would be present.
Thus, in the cores of Units 1-4, some 1,130 kg of cesium was in place when the accident occurred. Adding the spent fuel pools (net of the offloaded Unit 4 core) gives an additional 1,245 kg for a total of 2,375 kg of cesium in the damaged buildings.
3 of 3 (no air dispersal analysis yet; will work on it)
Fraction Of On-Site Material Emitted Into the Atmosphere
According to the UN, only 22 kg of cesium was released into the atmosphere as a result of the Chernobyl accident. The amount of cesium at the Fukushima Daiichi site, then, represents over 100 Chernobyl releases. The next question is, what fraction of the total cesium may be released into the atmosphere from Fukushima Daiichi?
Release mechanisms for nuclear fission products are varied and complex. For cesium, an initial 'burst release' occurs when rod cladding fails at fairly low temperatures around 500 degrees. After that the major mechanism up to roughly 2,000 degrees is release of the 'gap inventory' held through condensation on free surfaces of the fuel, with diffusion of fission gas bubbles from deeper within the fuel becoming more important with increasing temperature and instability in the fuel rods (accident conditions, sudden changes in temperature etc.).
From experiments and simulations of reactor accidents, it is observed that cesium release approaches 100% at extended (more than 20 minute) heating over about 2,000 degrees.
Fission product release is enhanced by even minor amounts of oxidized uranium, so release rates would be greater, for example, if water was flashing into steam on exposed rods or in the presence of an air-fed fire.
At Fukushima Daiichi, each of the eight 'hot spots' in Units 1-4 has undergone a unique sequence of damage, including loss of coolant and resulting heating. Partial meltdowns, steam releases, and hydrogen buildups demonstrate that high temperatures were experienced. But without more detail on each reactor core and spent fuel pond, a full accounting and estimate for cesium (or any other radionuclide) release is impossible. Furthermore, the release rate of cesium varies with the extent of fuel irradiation, or burnup, further complicating any particular fuel assembly's emission potential.
However, comparing possible release mechanisms, resulting emission rates, and circumstantial evidence from observed air contamination can provide a reasonable range estimate. For example, experiments on the initial burst emissions show a typical rate of 1 mg cesium per square centimeter of damaged fuel rod cladding for burst or gap release.
Because the accident at Fukushima is likely to be a long one, the burst or gap emissions are of less interest than the diffusion of fission products out of the deeper levels of the fuel. A design basis fuel rod may have 30% of its cesium inventory already condensed into the cladding gaps and other channels, primed for burst release. Over time, the fraction of cesium that is emitted if temperatures do not rise over 2,000 degrees is estimated at 50%. This means that 20% of the cesium is subject to release in the current status quo at Fukushima, along with any cesium in rods that have not failed yet. On the other hand, rods that have already been exposed to temperatures exceeding 2,000 degrees may have already expelled most or all of their cesium.
The Austrian Center for Weather and Climate Data estimated cesium release rates for the period of March 14-17. They used measurements on both sides of the Pacific Ocean to calibrate a source estimate. This estimate is in the range of 4*1015 to 5*1016 Bequerels (Bq) per day. This equates to 0.14-1.35 megacuries (MCi).
To assess the reasonableness of this estimate, the nuclear activity of cesium-137, 88 curies per gram, is used to translate the ZAMG estimate into cesium mass, and this mass into a fraction of the available cesium at the plant site. 0.14-1.35 MCi/day would require 1.5-12.3 kg of cesium, or just 0.1-0.5% of the inventory in the damaged buildings. This emission rate would ultimately result in 20% of the total cesium being emitted in 11-85 years, clearly a reasonable time frame for spent fuel to emit fission products.
Neither Chernobyl or Three Mile Island emitted cesium in anything like the quantities that have likely already been emitted at Fukushima Daiichi. Chernobyl likely emitted about 2.5 MCi, and Three Mile Island perhaps a hundredth of that amount. So we may be witnessing a Chernobyl every 2-20 days, perhaps every ten days as a midpoint.
Air Dispersal of Emitted Fission Products (in progress)
Also looking at water in terms of cesium absorbtion/transport...kind of complicated if steam is flashing off of rods or if it's a dry-wet-dry situation...hoping the water is keeping a good amount out of the air
Great work, Jim in MN. Would like for an analysis like this to run public.
copied and archived at oilgeology.blogspot.com
Bravo sir. Thank you Jim, for all that hard work. I feel as though I'm just beginning to undertand the gravity of the situation.
omfg....
Thanks for taking a stab at this, Jim. While peak temperatures necessary to volatilize Sr-90 are higher than those needed to release Cs-137, it also makes up a significant fraction of fission products by mass. I've read only a single report (Herald Sun) where this isotope (actually, it doesn't specify whether Sr-90 or shorter lived Sr-89) has been detected, let's hope it stays that way.
great stuff, give us more, what is the effect of all this cesium where is likely to concentrate in air, water, soil, food chain, oceans, land?
and that is a lot of work, but seems there are many ways to attempt to quantify adn bracket problem, why are we not getting at least weekly such updates from our govt.
Damn good work, Sir. I guess it is time to go long Bundt cakes.
>> According to the UN, only 22 kg of cesium was released into the atmosphere as a result of the Chernobyl accident. The amount of cesium at the Fukushima Daiichi site, then, represents over 100 Chernobyl releases.
Awesome work and Holy fucking shit. A full equivalent of the entire Chernobyl Cs-137 release EVERY 10 days on average?
Are you SOLID on your math??
The math isn't hard. There are several steps where reasonable assumptions need to be made and that introduces uncertainty. From that standpoint the Austrian estimate carries an order of magnitude range...and is independent of my little exercise. So I think we have it ballparked two ways which is pretty good considering.
My major uncertainties include the level of irradiation of these fuel rods vs. 'design basis' (standard modeling) rods, and the effect of water vs. air release of the fission products.
As for Chernobyl, that was one core and no spent fuel. We're looking at a dozen cores' worth here, just in the damaged buildings. Cesium is one of the biggest problems with spent fuel in general. Really not a surprise. At the same time, I have read both that Chernobyl emitted half of its fission product and that it put just 22 kg into the air...so perhaps still some uncertainty about the emissions from there? I can only work with what's available.
latest Gunderson video i've seen is March 31. "no one ever envisioned this type of recovery from an accident." "radioactive steam and water." this is what you've been discussing, I think. "2m becquerels /M2." "evacuate." he says four Xs higher than Chernobyl. but this is from Thursday. how often does Gunderson update?
MUST SEE!: 31 March 2011 Arnie Gundersen analyzes the dreadful Fukushima situation http://vimeo.com/21789121
Arnie Gundersen served as an expert witness in the investigation of the Three Mile Island accident. Fairewinds Associates http://fairewinds.com/
Original Ustream Video from Crane Camera at Reactor Building 4 http://fairewinds.com/content/ustream-videobtw 31 March 2011 Arnie Gundersen has 2 Vids http://fairewinds.com/updates
I like how he describes all these horrible things like a your grandpa teaching you how to tie your shoe...info is bad enough glad he doesn't scream in the process
Yeah, that's a very good description how he talks like. ahaha "like grandpa teaching you how to tie your shoe"
But he could stress more about Unit-3 tough, which spent fuel pool has been blown all over the freakin place. There ain't sucha thing as a empty fuel pool there at Unit-3! Sofar is clear from the high res pic analyzes. I say FUKUSHIMA: SCRAM IT!!!! http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=203916.msg1224112#msg1224112at least its spread out and can't go critical :)
But he could stress more about Unit-3 tough, which spent fuel pool has been blown all over the freakin place.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Conjecture; willful/wishful thinking?
Unwarranted attempt to spread panic ... radioactive levels do not support 'fuel rods blown all over the freaking place' ...
Still no idea what the actual conditions of the pools are. All the rods could be in there. I personally think Unit 3's pool fell into the building but that's just based on photo/video looks...and even then there's no reason why it couldn't fall straight down. Thunk. Rods just jumbled up some. Or it could have fallen on the containment vessel and turned over in the building.
We're getting some reports that the detectors redline at 1,000 millisieverts/hr. Sure is a precise number ;*). So I don't think we know what the levels are in the buildings. But I might have missed something with better reads. Basically agreeing with you.
I would agree with that assessment; and we really don't know ...
As far as the detectors redlining, they make some really high-scale detectors intended for use by the health physics folks for circumstances like this where high levels need monitoring and then time-exposure limits (like a minute) can be determined ...
Health Physics:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_physics
The term Health Physics is believed to have originated in the Metallurgical Laboratory at the University of Chicago in 1942, but the exact origin is unknown. The term was possibly coined by Robert Stone or Arthur Compton, since Stone was the head of the Health Division and Arthur Compton was the head of the Metallurgical Laboratory. The first task of the Health Physics Section was to design shielding for reactor CP-1 that Enrico Fermi was constructing, so the original HPs were mostly physicists trying to solve health-related problems. The explanation given by Robert Stone was that '...the term Health Physics has been used on the Plutonium Project to define that field in which physical methods are used to determine the existence of hazards to the health of personnel.'
A variation was given by Raymond Finkle, a Health Division employee during this time frame. 'The coinage at first merely denoted the physics section of the Health Division... the name also served security: 'radiation protection' might arouse unwelcome interest; 'health physics' conveyed nothing.
Jim I agree it sure is convenient their equipment tops out at 100 R/hr the CD-V-718 procured by FEMA in the 1990's can measure levels from .001mR/hr to 10,000 R/hr due to it dual detector setup. The Japanese absolutely have the means to accurately measure large volumes of radiation they operate fuel reprocessing facilities for Christ sakes.
I wonder structurally, what the weight of (say) number 3 pool. Rods and cement "Swimming Pool" structural total weight.
This pool was way up within the structure, if one of the walls underneath failed, that swimming pool could have fallen in a number of different directions as a semi intact structure falling over. like if it was on stilts.
Say, into the reactor or ...
OMG! OMG! I'm ordering more potassium pills off ebay right now!
Panic people! Panic!
Don't eat sushi! Don't watch japanese porn!
Limit your time spent outdoors, especially on the western seaboard of north america, we are truly screwed.
Is that a mushroom cloud outside my window?
this resonates: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnFy1luxL0A
Folks been having trouble finding the Japanese news...here are my links
NHK News TV
http://jibtv.com/program/fullscreen.aspx
NHK web
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/index.html
Kyodo nuclear updates
http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/japan_nuclear_crisis/
Asahi Shimbun
http://www.asahi.com/english/
Jiji Press
http://jen.jiji.com/
http://www.nuclearbritain.com/2011/03/fukushima-1-daiichi-and-fukushima-2.html
http://slow-news-day.net/japan-arthquake-march-2011/
http://slow-news-day.net/2011/03/3-minutes-after-the-explosion/
http://www.fukushima-nuclear.com/fukushima-nuclear-reactor-explosion-satellite-views/
http://www.digitalglobe.com/index.php/27/Sample+Imagery+Gallery
https://picasaweb.google.com/118079222830783600944/Japan
Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) Systems http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/basic-ref/teachers/03.pdf
http://econtent.unm.edu/cgi-bin/showfile.exe?CISOROOT=/nuceng&CISOPTR=33&filename=51.pdf
SOURCE PDF'S: More To Find: http://www.anengineerindc.com/2011/03/daiichi-reactor-design.html
New York Times: "Highly radioactive water is leaking directly into the Pacific Ocean from an eight-inch crack in a pit full of contaminated water at Japan's damaged nuclear plant. The air directly above the water registered 1,000 millisieverts an hour."