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Chris Martenson Straight Talk With John Rubino: The Damage Is Already Done

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Chris Martenson.com

"Straight Talk" features thinking from notable minds that the ChrisMartenson.com audience has indicated it wants to learn more about. Readers submit the questions they want addressed and our guests take their best crack at answering. The comments and opinions expressed by our guests are their own.

This week's Straight Talk contributor is John Rubino, publisher of DollarCollapse.com, a popular hub for news impacting the economy. John is the author of several best-selling books foretelling (years in advance) the collapse of the housing market and the decline of the US dollar. Before starting his website, John was a featured columnist with theStreet.com, Institutional Investor, and a number of other influential financial publications. His perspective on Wall Street and the currency markets is shaped by his past roles as a Eurodollar trader, equity analyst and junk bond analyst in the 1980s.


1. Several times, you’ve published prescient forecasts when it mattered. For example, you and James Turk published The Coming Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit From It in 2004 – about a year and half before the US Dollar Index dropped from 90 to nearly 70. Similarly, How to Profit From the Coming Real Estate Bust was released in 2003. What led you to accurately predict these major market moves so far in advance?

I’ve been involved, one way or another, with financial bubbles for most of my life. Back in the late 1970s I picked up a book by Harry Brown, a Libertarian philosopher who, it turned out, was also a gold bug investment advisor. So I got interested in precious metals and watched with interest as they soared in that decade’s monetary crisis and then crashed in the early 1980s.  

After grad school in the mid-1980s I went to Wall Street as an equity analyst, but when junk bonds got hot -- and demand for junk bond analysts exploded -- I switched sides. Just in time for the junk bubble to burst. In the 1990s I became a tech stock columnist with TheStreet.com and spent the next few years covering the dot-coms as they soared and then crashed.  

So by 2003 bubble dynamics were pretty familiar and it was clear that housing had all the classic traits: prices through the roof, regular people making fortunes doing things like flipping condos that even pros used to find difficult, and tried-and-true business practices being tossed overboard in favor of “innovations” like option-ARMs that were really cons designed to increase deal flow.

So pointing this out in a book (How to Profit From the Coming Real Estate Bust) was easy. But in the course of the research it became clear that what had seemed like a series of unrelated bubbles were really part of a meta-bubble resulting from the Federal Reserve’s ability to create as many new dollars as it wanted. That privilege was being abused big-time, and this “dollar bubble” had inflated asset prices around the world and led governments, businesses, and individuals to take on absolutely insane amounts of debt. Hot money was pouring into one asset class after another, with housing being just the latest and biggest. The process had to end badly, either with the US and other developed economies collapsing under the weight of all their debt, or the Fed and the other central banks printing their currencies into oblivion.

The upside of this admittedly apocalyptic vision was that traditional forms of money like gold and silver would go through the roof once everyone figured out that the dollar was being inflated away. In 2004 gold was about $400 an ounce and silver was under $10, so we were looking at a once-in-a lifetime opportunity for investors able to see past the conventional boom-time wisdom.

I had interviewed GoldMoney’s James Turk for a couple of magazine articles and found that he lived up to his reputation as both a good guy and a deep thinker on money and precious metals. He and I decided to write a book on gold, which gradually expanded into a critique of the whole concept of fiat currency (The Coming Collapse of the Dollar…). We’re both very proud of how it turned out because the analysis proved to be correct, and the investment advice -- go long precious metals and short the banks and homebuilders -- made anyone who followed it very rich in just a few years.

2. How would you summarize your fundamental thesis for our current economic plight and its likely outcome?

In a sentence: Fiat currencies always fail. If you put a printing press in the hands of politicians and bankers, you guarantee that the power will be abused until the currency is destroyed. The destruction takes the form of rising asset prices and deceptively low interest rates which lead businesses to over-borrow for new factories (malinvestment in economist-speak) and consumers to borrow rather than save. The result is an increasingly overindebted society that can only be kept going with ever-larger amounts of new debt. The central bank finds itself in a “print or die” situation in which the two remaining outcomes are deflationary depression or hyperinflation. That’s where the US, Europe and Japan are now.

3. At this point in the timeline, how much of your predicted collapse of the dollar has come to pass? From your recent writings, it seems you still expect it to weaken further. If so, why, and how much lower do you expect it to fall?

As Voltaire said, “Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value -- zero”. The US seems to have very predictably chosen to try to inflate its way out of all the debt it has taken on. That means massive deficits and low short-term interest rates as far as the eye can see, with the dollar’s value an afterthought. So the process will continue as long as the global financial system is willing to accept dollars and dollar-denominated debt.

But once investors and central banks realize they’re being scammed and demand a much higher rate for US Treasury bonds, we’ll enter the final stage of the process, in which the Fed buys ALL the bonds issued by Treasury directly. Or perhaps we’ll simply print the money the government spends, with no borrowing needed. At that point, no sane person will want to hold dollars and we’ll see a wholesale flight out of the currency and into pretty much any real asset. We’ll define this as inflation but it will really be the total loss of confidence in the currency.

The process might not be linear though. It’s easy to see interest rates spiking in response to rising inflation, which would have a horrendous impact on the interest costs of consumers with adjustable rate mortgages and credit cards, and governments like the US that have to roll over a lot of short-term debt. This could cause the financial markets to freeze up, sending us back into a 2008-style financial crash. So for a while it might appear that deflation is winning out after all.

The world’s central banks would of course respond to another financial crisis with even more printing. And since their ability to create new currency is infinite, they’ll just pick a number deemed to be big enough to do the trick, click “send”, and the banks or consumers or whoever will find themselves with nice liquid accounts once again. And the currency debasement game will go on until its inevitable conclusion.

4. What are your thoughts on peak oil, and what contributing role (if any) do you see it playing in the economic collapse you foresee?

The world is definitely running out of cheap oil, so its price will tend to be higher going forward. This is a drag on energy-dependent economies like the US, and a potential geopolitical nightmare, as we send more and more money to some of the world’s most dangerous dictators. And turmoil in the Middle East could cause another oil shock that might be seen as the catalyst for a global financial crisis.

But Peak Oil isn’t necessary to the dollar collapse thesis. Even if oil was $10 a barrel the US would still be borrowing and printing too much currency, which would lead to a financial catastrophe eventually.

5. You spent the 1980s and ‘90s working on Wall Street as a eurodollar trader and equity/bond analyst. What are the safe havens you recommend for investors trying to protect against the collapse you’ve been warning about?

Precious metals of course, because gold and silver are time-tested forms of money that governments can’t create out of thin air. As fictitious paper currencies flood the world, the imbalance between paper and metal will continue to grow, which will send the paper currency prices of gold and silver much higher. The key thing to understand about this process is that gold and silver aren’t becoming more valuable; they’re just holding their value as paper declines.

Other real assets like oil and farmland will do well in this kind of scenario. And the least-badly managed fiat currencies will go up versus the dollar. I’m not crazy about the currency diversification idea though, because the Canadian dollar and Swiss franc are still fiat currencies subject to the whims of whoever gets elected. So eventually they’re doomed too, which means owning them just delays the day of reckoning. You lose more slowly than with the dollar but you still lose. 

Foreign real estate is tricky but potentially a good way to protect against a dollar crisis. Much of Latin America and Asia have avoided the debt bubble of the past decade, so they’ll weather the storm pretty well. The problem is that real estate is illiquid and foreign real estate is a far away, so buyers should approach this asset class with extreme caution, hiring professional help and paying attention to local laws and customs.  

6. You’ve lamented that through quantitative easing, the Fed is flooding markets with liquidity - causing nearly all asset classes to rise in tandem, making historic correlations irrelevant. Elaborate on your recent statement that in such a dysfunctional system, the short side is the place to be.

That’s more of a year-ahead recommendation than a blanket statement about investing in inflationary periods. If all prices are rising because of monetary debasement, equities might go up in nominal terms while declining in real terms. So shorting them is a losing bet. That’s what happened in the past year, as newly printed dollars flooded the world and pushed up pretty much everything, including US stocks.

But this is not a sign of a healthy recovery -- it’s actually a sign of growing instability. Austrian economists call this a “crack-up boom” in which excess liquidity flows into assets of all kinds and produces a manic market that ends the way you’d expect, with overinflated assets hitting air pockets and dropping by 50%  - 90% in a matter of months.

I think we’re heading for something like this, where a catalyst -- trouble in the Middle East, an oil shock, soaring food prices, a failed state (US or Europe) debt default, whatever -- flips the sentiment switch from optimistic to pessimistic and everyone heads for the exits at the same time. For a year everything that went up goes back down. Gold and silver might still outperform in this scenario because they’re safe havens. But not much else will be spared: developing and developed world equities, real estate, you name it, they should all be great shorts. I’m ‘talking my book” here by the way. I’ve been accumulating short positions for a while now, though I wish I’d waited a few months before starting!

7. Since your days on Wall Street, you’ve founded the website DollarCollapse.com, which serves as a popular “hub” for the better articles published in the econoblogosphere. What are your goals for the site?

DollarCollapse basically contains the articles I read -- or would read if I had the time -- and my hope is that it will continue to serve the same purpose for like-minded people. Its tag line is “Your ringside seat for the global financial crisis,” and that’s the goal.

8. You now live far away from Manhattan, in a much more remote, agrarian part of the country. Was moving to a more self-sustaining locale a conscious choice given your vision of the coming collapse? What (if any) lifestyle changes do you advise individuals adopt today in preparation?

We moved to Moscow, Idaho from the east coast a few years ago, but it was more about outdoor culture -- you can bike all day on country roads and practically live on your boat out here -- and about having a great place to raise our two sons. Because it’s a college town, you can’t throw a rock without hitting a PhD, so there’s more intellectual stimulation than you’d expect from a small Idaho town.

But it has also turned out to be a good place to be during crazy times. We’re surrounded by farms, so the local economy benefits from the kind of food inflation that accompanies currency debasement. And there’s the whole western ethos of self sufficiency and self defense. An amazing number of our friends have gardens, raise chickens and own multiple guns.

This isn’t a frivolous point. Great Depression-scale financial crises tend to bring all kinds of political and social turmoil, and Americans can’t necessarily count on “society” taking care of us in the worst-case scenario. So the lifestyle equivalents of buying gold and foreign real estate are probably a good idea. These would include holding some precious metals in a safe, accessible place, having some emergency supplies on hand, and generally becoming more self-sufficient. And scaling back your expenses now, before the economy insists.

9. There is no shortage of criticism for the mess we find ourselves in. Far more scarce but much more important are solutions.  How does the world restore fiscal “soundness” and what needs to be done to set the stage for a rebirth?

The sad truth is that there’s no fix for the mess we’ve created -- at least nothing on the menu of politically feasible options. The vast majority of the politicians and voters in the US, Europe and Japan don’t yet understand what’s coming. The US left thinks that raising marginal tax rates will let us keep expanding the welfare state ad infinitum, while the right thinks that whatever we have to spend on our global military empire is worth it. Neither sees the edge of the cliff that’s approaching, so neither is willing to make the kinds of massive, dramatic cuts in government spending that might have an effect.

And even if we did wake up today, the damage is already done. The US total debt (federal, state, local, consumer, business) now comes to nearly $1 million per family of four. And that’s not counting a similar amount for unfunded Medicare benefits and who knows how much in derivatives liabilities. So a painless fix is no longer possible. Our choices have narrowed to only two: a crash that will dwarf the Great Depression or a hyperinflation that wipes out a whole generation’s savings.

That’s why I don’t publish much political commentary on DollarCollapse. Today’s debate over federal spending and taxes is just so much fantasy. We’re like a family arguing about redoing the kitchen while the house burns down. It’s an irrelevant, annoying discussion. The interesting debate will take place after the collapse, when we have to decide what kind of society to rebuild from the rubble. Then we can argue for limited government and individual rights and sound money and all the rest. Politics will be interesting again!

Until then, we should protect our families and tend our gardens.


 

If you have not yet seen the other articles in this series, you can find them here:

Readers can submit their preferences for future Straight Talk participants, as well as questions to ask them, via the Straight Talk forum.

 

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Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:22 | 1087004 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

Tonight we're gonna party like it's Dow 1999!

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:41 | 1087048 10kby2k
10kby2k's picture

I've been in the crash camp (despite Bernanke's attempts otherwise) and 1999 would be a realistic target.  1.999Kby2K13  (I made the screen name 10Kby2K in 1994 on AOL and when it hit 10K in 1999 i had rode that parabola long enough---completely missing the Naz's runup to 5K).

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:52 | 1087580 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Yeap, turn on the printers Ben

http://costofwar.com/en/

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 18:08 | 1087613 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

Warren Buffett calls himself a "retard" while in India.....

 

http://nakedempire2.blogspot.com/

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:23 | 1087006 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

James Jam It Cramer says invest all wealth in NFLX, baby!

03-22 14:47: Netflix is worth double the current price, Jim Cramer says on CNBC

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:29 | 1087020 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Cramer has jumped the SHARK...worth double....I will take that bet... He needs to double his ratings...

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:37 | 1087034 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I think his show is the 4th or 7th least watched show on all of cable...something like that (something like 24,000 viewers).

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:41 | 1087062 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

There would be a two-fold ratings increase in the show ff Cramer were to star in a snuf film for that program.  Come to think of it, Netflix could stream the show as well.  Cramer's prediction could come true, plus we wouldn't have to deal with Cramer anymore.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:59 | 1087155 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Lenny Dykstra has a triple buy on NFLX...raising his target to 1,000.....heee

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:11 | 1087207 velobabe
velobabe's picture

hey Joe W. over at businessinsider.com thinks Groupon is going to be B I G.

IPO, bitchez!

plus paper money is where it is @ over at businessinsider. they probably are going to be coming out with an IPO.

øhedge, ROCKS†

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:55 | 1087401 SilverBoy
SilverBoy's picture

He said Lenny Dykstra.  To funny

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 20:34 | 1088075 Seer
Seer's picture

"There would be a two-fold ratings increase in the show ff Cramer were to star in a snuf film for that program."

Isn't that what Mad Money is?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:39 | 1087045 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Would this be the harbinger of an imminent Netflix crash? 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:49 | 1087096 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

History would seem to think so.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:25 | 1087012 Paul Krugman
Paul Krugman's picture


Great article written on Seeking Alpha today about how JP Morgan got approval for a vault license by the CFTC. Now they can manipulate silver some more by hiding the fact that delivery failures occur because it is being delivered to their own damn vault.

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/259549-will-jp-morgan-now-make-and-take-...

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:49 | 1087572 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

 It is very frustrating to see anyone get away with the stuff that they get away with..There annoucement in the fall of opening a Gold facility in Singapore is another one..There is one little , itty, bitty small bright yellow canary in the coalmine and his name is Silver supply..They can extend and pretend all they want, I do not give a shit, I will buy this Friday like I do every friday and will continue to do so until I feel that it is over valued..Sooner or later one of these gigantic industries is going to call in for there order to there bullion house and its going to be  delayed..Then further delayed the next time , and soon they want be able to get the quantity they want..Then they will proceed to call around to try to secure the metal from another source and they will be out, then we have panic and a Rodium moment will pop off...

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 18:00 | 1087595 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
by Paul Krugman
on Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:25
#1087012

 

 

Great article written on Seeking Alpha today about how JP Morgan got approval for a vault license by the CFTC. Now they can manipulate silver some more by hiding the fact that delivery failures occur because it is being delivered to their own damn vault.

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/259549-will-jp-morgan-now-make-and-take-...

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Thanks!

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 18:02 | 1087597 OldTrooper
OldTrooper's picture

You had to know they would go down fighting.  Still, I didn't expect this.  Very clever.  What kind of clowns (and there will be plenty of them-after all, one's born every minute) are going to trust JPMorgue to hold their PMs?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 20:07 | 1087967 DosZap
DosZap's picture

They are just planning on picking up the pieces,and storing all they can get for the NEW world Order's birth.

The Old Gvt will need all the PM's they can get to restart the next ponzi.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:29 | 1087018 Judge Judy Scheinlok
Judge Judy Scheinlok's picture

Will Chris Martenson bring his free range chickens in to protect them from the radiation?

If so will they be confined to the basement in his house or will they get to roam all around?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 18:51 | 1087712 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

judy:

"... bring his free range chickens in to protect them from the radiation?"

The early nuclear experiments had the observation, since confirmed, that the passage of a human through a radiation beam slowed down the particles enough to engender more reactions.

We, in the more stylish sty, take no notice of this poultry.

- Ned

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 19:56 | 1087913 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Now THAT's funny!

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:38 | 1087040 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

The usa fraud economy may persist for some time but it is rotten throughout. Hollow trees sometimes stand for many years but you don't want to lean on one too heavily.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:40 | 1087042 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

"We are like a family arguing over redoing the kitchen while the house burns down"

 

 

So So True!  I like that saying

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 18:06 | 1087609 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

*************************************************************

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

 

"We are like a family arguing over redoing the kitchen while the house burns down"

 

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

***************************************************************

Even here we do it, I am GUILTY! of it all the time.. and how stupid am I for being a knee jerk response idiot?

Fight Club AFREES! on the Big stuff.. so lets push on the big stuff?

Like POMO? Like the Lobby Dollars? Like the circle jerk.. wash, rinse and repeat Banker Lobby Slush Fund?

 

I will do whatever work wise to help, but I would like to start on the high dollar items.. if I am voted down but the group then I will still work on whatver the group Votes as our first order of business. with no bitching.  

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:41 | 1087052 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

"But once investors and central banks realize they’re being scammed and demand a much higher rate for US Treasury bonds, we’ll enter the final stage of the process, in which the Fed buys ALL the bonds issued by Treasury directly."

I am tired of reading this from multiple "poundits".  The central banks have not figured this out but we have, yeah right..  This does not end until the asset stripping and NWO is in place.  This will continue much, much longer than most think it can.  Street level scanners, control of the internet and much more yet to be implemented before the "fall" is engineered.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:47 | 1087079 redpill
redpill's picture

As long as we have the big banks playing the game, they won't need to buy the bonds directly, they can just play POMO games and extend and pretend that they aren't monetizing debt.  We literally have the financial sector merging with government before our eyes, we are rushing toward oligarchy and every day that passes our "elected representatives" are less and less relevant.

 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 20:20 | 1088036 DosZap
DosZap's picture

our "elected representatives" are less and less relevant.

This was THE plan from the get go.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:17 | 1087479 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

that is if the "fall" happens when they want it to, instead of when they don't expect it.  Humans fuck up, it's a given.  If they miss one step, the right step, the whole thing could crumble out of control.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 19:00 | 1087747 sschu
sschu's picture

This will continue much, much longer than most think it can.

All things being equal yes it can and will.  Hence the Black Swan theory that some unexpected event will change everything.  Right now things seem pretty resilient, MENA, Japan, melting down reactors do not seem to phase us much.

IMHO, this is the sign that the end is close, it is so obvious to anyone that the markets (fx, stock, bonds) are totally rigged, the manipulation is there for anyone to see.  This indicates that the margin of error is so small that the system is extremely vulnerable.

So what this means to me is our enemies, who are far more astuteand have many more resources than me, will move to profit from this vulnerability.  The impetus for Sept 2008 was massive withdrawals of MM funds, the word is that the world financial markets were hours from collapse.  If you believe this to be true, then our vulnerabilities are massive and obvious.   

It will happen so fast that the end will occur in seconds.  Or the beginning, depending on your view.

sschu 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 20:19 | 1088031 DosZap
DosZap's picture

You got it, the one's who caused this are so stupid, they Do not GET it?, the peoples are going to have to be penniless, and a sack of bones, like zombies, a person devoured by cancer, with 48hrs to live.

Break all the classes down to the ground, then CUT OFF the basics of life to all who do not obey.

Their will be millions of dead people walking and in the streets.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:40 | 1087054 MGA_1
MGA_1's picture

A few currencies swaps, little hit on the PMs, backstop some derivatives - voilla !  Problem solved !

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 22:16 | 1087058 Tail Dogging The Wag
Tail Dogging The Wag's picture

Right on the money! Excellent article.

John Rubino has played the best hand: Royal Flush

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:42 | 1087059 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

Might I summarize: Veggies and guns, bitches!

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 20:03 | 1087947 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

I divide my time somewhat equally between growing food, earning a living, practicing rifle, and (verbally) fighting tyranny.

My radishes and lettuce are up, peas not up yet, tomato plants look mighty fine.  The potatoes are in deep so I won't be hearing from them right away.  I need to put in the next round of radishes.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:41 | 1087061 golfrattt
golfrattt's picture

Just laid out my favorite caveman outfit, preparing for the inevitable....

Not a REAL caveman, not with all that canned food stacked as high as high can go..

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:43 | 1087063 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

never trust a joo banker

 

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=182764

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:46 | 1087081 prophet_banker
prophet_banker's picture

how unfortunate to see the solution discarded like yesterday's trash; supporting the thesis lie that bank created money is ok, but government created money isn't.  For the ignorant, all money is created as debt, and most is created by commercial banks, not central banks.

 

 

 

"Or perhaps we’ll simply print the money the government spends, with no borrowing needed. At that point, no sane person will want to hold dollars"

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:51 | 1087106 docj
docj's picture

Only quibble - it's Harry Browne.

Otherwise, well done.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 01:14 | 1088880 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

I miss Harry Browne. It was fun calling his followers the Harry Browne people. It made them sound like a bunch of Rastas.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:53 | 1087112 zerotoad
zerotoad's picture

he worked for thestreet.com  ---HE IS FULL OF CRAP

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:26 | 1087274 Slim
Slim's picture

LOL - given his history of swapping bubbles at the wrong time over 40 years, he is a perfect contra-indicator.  While I'm not convinced everything will be just fine, I feel better knowing he's on the doom side.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:02 | 1087135 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

How much longer can this really go on?

When will the debt actually have any meaningful impact on the economy/business cycle?

I am attemping to plan out my life at this jencture. College, boyfriend, family, investments, health,etc.

I understand already, "Economy always goes up and down... nothing anyone can do about it"... 

I thought we are already at the END OF THE LINE and the next crisis will be an absolute death-kneel for the dollar and the entire world economic system at large...

Along with ZH I also follow Gerald Celente, Peter Schiff, Ron Paul, Bob Chapman, Kyle Bass, John Williams, Jimmy Rogers, Eric Sprott, Marc Faber and a few others.

This is a video I found of Marc Faber after the crisis in late 2008. So far, he has been probably the most accurate in my opinion forcasting endless QE, equity rally based on inflationary pressures (negative real rates), massive currency depreciation against Gold/Silver, downturn in Emerging economies, increased fiscal deficts etc.

He says the Final crisis will be when the ENTIRE SYSTEM is WIPED OUT and we reset to "0":
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gnln1rMfB7U

How much danger are we in? More than in 2007-2009 when we lost 8 million jobs?

Is it still possible that we can grow out of this (obviously what is being attempted along with ZIRP and QE)

thx guys <3

(leaving work now. Going home. Music + ZH + Smoke). Will read responses then.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:11 | 1087217 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

The market can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent. 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:46 | 1087566 Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

why are we junking baby blythe for asking questions?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 18:12 | 1087623 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

don't worry about that, leBEN.

A few brusiees seperate from the cleanfaced perps is something I can handle.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 20:00 | 1087934 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

I think ZH has people who are not intelligent enough to contribute to the conversation so in quite desperation of there own sad lives feel they are contributing by been junkers

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 23:06 | 1088550 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

My last post was the first not "auto junked" in 20 weeks, WGAS, Who gives a shit..

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:25 | 1087270 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

Straight talk with John Rubino = doomer porn.

I recently read a great article that pointed out similar trends and provided well-supported convincing arguments fortelling imminent financial system collapse.  I can't post the link because it pre-dates the internet version of the old magazine that I was reading.  Circa 1997...

Never underestimate TPTB's ability to extend and pretend.

Avoid debt.  Be self reliant.  Stay diversified and prepped for emergencies, but don't barricade the bunker yet.  Governments, banks and currencies may collapse, yet life will go on (only shittier). 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 18:41 | 1087689 checkessential
checkessential's picture

 "This is not going to end well" is an over used cliche'.  The fact is that it is not going to end.  It will only change.  We are not going to wake up one day and have every grocery store empty of product or open only for those holding little zip lock bags of gold coins.  These people sip on their 800 calorie frappacinos in Starbucks while blogging on their ipads about the end of the world. 

Sorry, but the same people who know it's going to "end badly" are the same ones shopping around for 4G wireless service because deep down, they know its not going to end.  It is just going to change.    

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:35 | 1087307 Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

baby, baby, baby...someone on this site once posted a comment that was an accurate, concise, summary of things to come (imho). He said, "soon, middle class Americans will no longer concern themselves with buying things they want because they will be scrapping to acquire things they need" (sorry if  I misquoted) Now this is playing out as we speak, steadily if not somewhat slowly, but it seems quite apparent to me that we are just one spark away from a sudden and dramatic transition to a much lower standard of living for the majority of the US population.

The degree to which our "economy" is fake is directly related to the degree to which our current standard of living is fake. Try to envision a future scenario where those are brought back down to Earth, and for a time those artificial highs must be countered with exceptional lows

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:14 | 1087469 Calculated_Risk
Calculated_Risk's picture

'If we don't live within our means, we'll be forced to live below them!'

 

Ron Paul

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:44 | 1087560 Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

"How much danger are we in? More than in 2007-2009 when we lost 8 million jobs?"

Short answer: yes. Long answer: the market sell-off and subsequent shit-storm I associate with that time period was an attempted purge of toxicity by market forces. Sure, the sell-off was catalysed and directed initially by the banking mafia, but the correction was needed to bring back viability to the US economy. However, the amputation of dying limbs to save the whole, was prematurely and artificially stopped by FED and gov. interferance thanks to Hank "the fuckhead" Paulson and Ben "big ass" Bernanke in conjuction with every other shit-piece residing in DC. Despite all of the fireworks in late 2008, early 2009, nothing conducive to revitalizing our "economy" actually took place. Nothing significant was done in order to: reduce spending, bring back manufacturing capabilities, further regulate/enforce regulations of banking system, reform the monetary system, re-think foreign policy, etc.; and thus begin to galvanize the crumbling foundation of our once healthy economy. All that was done back then, and all that is being done today, acts only to delay and intensify the inevitable.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 20:11 | 1087981 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

In your last paragraph, you have succinctly summarized why anyone would be a fool to be bullish on America for anything but the short term. We are toast. The Neocons and Bush (with Dems and Neolibs in collusion) pulled off 911 to start the Clash of civilizations to secure Greater Israel for the Israelis, and provide complete control for our bankster masters over the entire Middle East. The bubbles blown during the Bush administration were to provide phony wealth for a phony economy, so as to appease Americans to look the other way while they recklessly gambled with shock'N'Awe, which turned out to be smoke N Mirrors.  Russia was supposed to fall under the control of the Oligarchs and their Bankster sponsors, but Putin kicked out/imprisoned or controlled them. Iraq and Afghanistan were supposed to be cakewalk; Iran, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela and the rest were to fall like dominoes. Something went very wrong  -A plan outlined by Brzezinski in the grand Chessboard that could have been carried out using our power and skillful diplomacy, was squandered by rank amateurs with no patience, no plan and no wisdom. The result is that we are screwed. Obama came in at a time when we had no choice but to take our lumps, suffer from our decisions, clean house and rebuild from scratch. Had we done it right, we would have, to quote Ron Paul, have had a bad year -  instead we kick the can further down the road blowing more bubbles, and as a result we are now destined to have a bad decade. When it all collapses, the survivalists and doom and gloomers will be right. There will then be a moment of truth for America, as the banksters fully expect us to slide into a feudal system of serfdom and just another banana republic  -but they are fully prepared for all hell to break loose if the masses rebel and resist. Then the real battler will begin. I'm not at all sure who will win. This country does not appear to have the character that we used to have . Decades of third world immigration, destruction of family, religion and old fashioned values hasn't helped either.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 21:14 | 1088114 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

Right on savvy.  The perfect storm is brewing.  America will soon be tested by fire, and we must choose between slavery and rising from the ashes as a free country.  I think the dollar will collapse within a year, leading to Paul/Paul 2012, and the elites will have no choice but to blatantly steal the election for Obama and declare martial law.  Texas will be the first state to secede, and most others will follow.  The low-ranking military will side with the people after they see how Blackwater runs the FEMA camps.   Hordes of heavily armed barbarians will ruthlessly sack NY and DC, the guillotines will run for months, and all streets will be lined with heads on sticks.  All the bullshit regulations, debt, court precedents, derivatives, entitlements etc. will disintigrate like leaves in a firestorm, and when the smoke clears, people will realize that everything EXCEPT the Constitution was just a goddamn piece of paper!

My brother in Dallas is savvy and he is training.  He will hide underground while the gangs and meth addicts squabble over the carcasses of the strip malls, and then he will emerge as Lord Humongous, Master of the Wasteland!  By 2014 or so, America will recover its character.  A little Mad Max is good for the soul.  Tree of Liberty and all that.  I just hope our flyboys will intercept any private jets escaping from NY and DC.  If all the top psychopaths escape to Paraguay and Israel, the rest will never learn.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 21:23 | 1088164 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

You speak of Bush and Obama as if they actually had a choice in the matter of policy. Puppets, along with Congress, is all they were (are). Republicans, Democrats, it doesn't matter, they are bought and paid for by the time they reach office. The two party system is broken, from a citizen's perspective, but it works just fine for the banksters. Keep Americans distracted, and thus marginalized, with wedge issues like gun control and gays in the military and other emotionally charged issues, while they downplay and gloss over the most immediate and significant threat, the unsustainable debt. The mainstream media is their PR tool, and it's working just fine. But Bush and Obama? Just the front men for the machine.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 16:08 | 1101015 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

The advantageous US situation after WWII and for approximately 50 years after is over. US society, US workforce, education (or lack of it) and citizenry are all different now. The rest of the world has changed. At the end of WWII we had immense heavy industry, lots of productive jobs producing American goods that other countries wanted. A working man was able to take care of his family. Greens got rid of heavy industry and those jobs, and won't let them return, even if those industries wanted to come back to the more-expensive USA. Folks in other countries are grateful to make a buck a day or a week; Americans want big salaries and benefits, which is nice in theory but doesn't work in practice because our goods cost too much even for Americans to buy. Things never can be again as they were in the 40s. With passing of those times and the ambitious creative risk-takers of yesterday went US prosperity.  Tomorrow, more burger flippers and waiters will be required, or folks to mow lawns or weed crop fields. We've become third-world nation in about 60 years; we just haven't absorbed the reality yet. This is a continuum. Now we have shit sandwich on our plate.

" On April 17, 1913 the balance of power in United States shifted from the states to the central government with the illegal ratification of the 17th. Amendment. With the "voice" of the States effectively stifled, the federal government under FDR began the systematic destruction of the Constitution of the United States in 1933. Today, the last vestiges of freedom remain tethered to the Bill of Rights by a thin, raveled thread. http://www.newswithviews.com/HNB/Hot_New_Books3.htm"

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:48 | 1087365 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

Reply to baby Blythe , how much trouble, when the dollar goes so too all the other currencys , then you will be looking at a 50-80% global population die off, sorry for the bad news.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:19 | 1087485 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

the economy only goes up and down due to the imbalances created by the central banking cartel. 

try less to make god laugh (i.e. make a plan) and enjoy your life instead. in the long run, you'll be happier for it.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:18 | 1087486 tsx500
tsx500's picture

Music + ZH + Smoke .     i like !   :)   :)   :)

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:37 | 1087543 goldsaver
goldsaver's picture

 

Baby, I will tell you the same thing I tell my kids and extended family.  A.P.E.S. :

1. Asses your situation. Your life is unique to you and you must decide what is the most likely impact of no money and no job in your life. Pay attention to your family, home, community, township, city and state (in that order). Your situation will be impacted by all those outside influences. Do you live in a large city? Understand that food and energy are imported and will be in short supply when needed most. Are you living in an urban island like Las Vegas where everything, including water, must be imported? How  will you cope with the loss or drastic reduction of imports? How will your community? What are your physical and medical needs? How are you taking care of them now? How will you take care of them when there is no outside help available?

2. Make a plan. Once you assessed your situation, make a plan on how to resolve your urgent gaps first. If you find a problem that would require immense effort to resolve but is not critical, relegate it to a lower priority. If you have a problem that you can easily solve and would make a difference, work on that first. If you find a very unlikely problem that would not make a huge difference in your life, ignore it until everything else is done first. Once you start working on your plan, take action! Don’t wait, it must be done now.

3. Evolve. Understand that the advertizing degree or the underwater basket weaving women studies degree will not help you survive. Return to basics. The butcher, the baker, the candlestick maker. Pick a critical skill set or product that is absolutely necessary for your local community. The ice vendor in Alaska will go hungry, in Louisiana will become wealthy. Find something you can learn to do and start doing it. Hone your skills and your clientele. After a collapse, people will still need bread from the baker. Let them get used to you been the baker now. Learn to do without the help of others. Look at your daily routine and ask, who is doing this for me and how can I do it myself? Where is your water coming from? Who grows your food? Can you repair your car? Can you mend your clothes? Rethink your notions of savings and investments. An iCrap is a toy. A grain mill and the skill to bake bread is an investment. Start investing in skills, needs, grub, guns and gold, in that order.  Make it a point to pay yourself at least 15% of you income first. If you have to give something up, do so. Your life is too important.

4. Survive. Start transitioning your lifestyle to focus around your new learned skills and the coming reality. While your friends sit around watching dancing with the stars, go to a frontier village or living museum and learn how things where done pre-industrial revolution. Start living the lifestyle. Learn how to grow food and eat the food you grow. Learn how to make candles and use your candles for light. Lear how to cook from scratch and enjoy homemade foods. Start living

 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 18:09 | 1087614 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Thanks so much, Goldsaver! (btw...I hold about 35% of my total single-digit networth in PMs).

Common Sense goes a long way. Since no one can predict the future, the best advice I always seem to narrow down to: PREPARE for the WORST, HOPE for the BEST.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 16:10 | 1101021 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

That's the right attitude. Be well, be careful.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 02:35 | 1088973 pasttense
pasttense's picture

"After a collapse, people will still need bread from the baker."

 

No, they won't be able to afford it; so they will bake it themselves.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 20:29 | 1088058 DosZap
DosZap's picture

I would suggest not wasting your fiat on a degree right now, use it to accrue PM's.

There are millions of degreed folks like you, on the street w/no job at all, or one making $8.00 an hour.

IF, somehow some semblance of normalcy were to come miraculously to pass, then go back to school.

Travel light,prepare, and I suggest no marriage until you see where we're going to land.

Ten years ago, I would have given you the exact opposite advice.Now it's different.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 16:11 | 1101025 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

Excellent advice. Add "don't have kids".

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 20:59 | 1088119 Seer
Seer's picture

"Is it still possible that we can grow out of this"

In a word: No

Over the course of all this mahem nothing has popped up as being the "new way out."  There have been no real new structures proposed (NWO worriers can go back to peering out from their closets).  The fact that much of the world's lands containing energy resources are also seeing increases in military activity should tell you that the endgame is centered on energy, on oil.  Should be pretty obvious that everything is lock-stepping with oil.  I'd like to say that I was ahead of Faber and Rubino, I'm pretty much positioned as they are (though, clearly, at a different economic level- I don't travel on speaking circuits, I have work to do on the farm, not wealthy enough to hire others, yet).

Seek out that which matters, that which is fundamental: Food, shelter and water.  Be humble (except slap idiots upside the head; I do that here in hopes that it'll keep such people away from my community; would like to keep my powder dry).

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 23:17 | 1088581 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

The battle over resources will be accompanied by a higher order that of a NWO.  Whether it be financial undercurrents, a new worldwide currency or financial structure I do not know, but be there it will.  One does not have to knock his head on the clothes hangers i nthe closet to see which way the wind is blowing.

While cheap oil is hitting peak I think you would agree that finance has hit peak and is at root of many problems.  Do you think politics ends at oil and neglects the finances to control these energy drivers, I think not.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 21:18 | 1088150 Dantzler
Dantzler's picture

bB,

Jim Rickards is another good person to follow (@ on twitter).

Here is a great lecture he gave at JHU/APL recently:

http://outerdnn.outer.jhuapl.edu/rethinking/VideoArchives/MrJamesGRickardsPresentationVideo.aspx

Aside from all the education & preparedness stuff (which I think is extremely important), never forget to appreciate life's little pleasures. Spring always instills me with joy for some reason...

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 22:32 | 1088383 Tail Dogging The Wag
Tail Dogging The Wag's picture

@Baby

John Rubino has played a Royal Flush here. He's done everything right. He's sitting on agricultural, arable land that produces food and he's sitting on an aquifer. Plenty of water and food. He's surrounded himself with food producers and has joined a community and he's in a college town. Best of all worlds. He has covered every possible angle: family, food, water, guns, silver, gold, community.

What is very different about this age is that this will be a global depression. Every country will feel it. Fiat is doomed.

IMHO: Possible scenarios include hyperinflation eg. a loaf of bread, if you can find one will run $500 or $1000 and you will be using $1000 federal reserve notes, then prices goes to $2000 and so on until the baker refuses federal reserve notes and maybe asks for a different currency: likely Canadian Dollars, or perhaps the baker will want real money: gold/silver. We don't know how it will all go down, but possibly before we get to that stage there will be food riots, looting, and social unrest. Living in a city is a bad idea, especially a big city. Just look at the logistics of getting food into a city and look at the passport of the food. Where is it coming from? How much oil was used to get to you.A new revolution, possibly a domino effect from state to state. Weimar Republic been there, done that, got the T-Shirt. Cheap oil made it possible for humans to reach 7 billion in numbers. This is where I become a neo-malthusian.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:57 | 1087149 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

But in the course of the research it became clear that what had seemed like a series of unrelated bubbles were really part of a meta-bubble resulting from the Federal Reserve’s ability to create as many new dollars as it wanted.

Bingo.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:06 | 1087190 Debtless
Debtless's picture

http://www.bullionstream.com/usa/Product/id/17/market/m_us

 

Wow what a great precious metals price-comparison site. Not that i own any - or that i would use Tulving (not listed here) but a great site to compare Apmex, Kitco, Gainsville, Bullion Direct, etc...for individual item sales.

*No pm articles recently to attach this to - but Martenson's outlook certainly made sense to me for it. Enjoy.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 22:00 | 1088284 magis00
magis00's picture

Helpful link. Thanks.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:10 | 1087200 tamboo
Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:22 | 1087249 Judge Judy Scheinlok
Judge Judy Scheinlok's picture

FEMA prepares for enemy attacks from UFO's.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nj5fr6CwDxU

When Planet X(the winged planet) visits our solar system the Illuminati will try to fool the sheeple with Project Blue Beam.

Don't fall for it my fellow sheeple, don't!

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:13 | 1087224 JR
JR's picture

Guess how much one of these Tomahawk Cruise Missiles costs? At an approximate cost of $569,000 each according to the U.S. Navy Fact File (FY99), the first night of Libya bombing was $62,590,000 for 110 missiles fired. With inflation and the cost estimates flying around the Internet wildly ranging from $1M to $1.5M each, that’s $110,000,000 first night bombing at $1M each.

All courtesy of the willing American taxpayer, though there was no declaration of war from the constitutionally charged Congress and barely a nod from the Commander in Chief. Apparently it was a decision made by the smartest women in the world, America’s Secretary of State.

Said Justin Raimondo, Antiwar.com, yesterday:

Initially skeptical of intervention in Libya’s civil war, the President reportedly bowed to pressure from a triumvirate of women in his administration: Hillary Clinton, National Security Council director of “multilateral affairs” Samantha Power, and UN ambassador Susan Rice…”

According to Raimondo’ article, Libya’s Slipper Slope, Samantha Power is “married to Cass 'Let’s Infiltrate the Internet' Sunstein, a White House adviser... If she had her way – and she may yet – US troops would be in Darfur, Rwanda, and any number of Third World hellholes...

“Susan Rice, former Undersecretary of State for African Affairs during the Clinton administration, is yet another “humanitarian” in search of “genocides” to avenge. Like Power, she believes we ought to have intervened in Rwanda, and is part of a hard-liner clique, including her mentor Madeleine Albright and the late Richard Holbrooke, that holds the view the US must take a more interventionist stance in Africa...

“The leading member of this Amazonian triumvirate is, of course, our Secretary of State, whose support for US intervention in Libya was signaled early on when Bill Clinton said we ought to go in. Hillary’s key role in dragging us into Libya’s civil war hardly comes as a shock...

"President Clinton set a new record as far as the sheer number of times he intervened abroad: Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Iraq, and Kosovo – this last, you’ll recall, at Hillary’s persistent urging."

http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2011/03/20/libyas-slippery-slope/

Obama is not the president.  When Bill was elected president, Hillary said, you get two for the price of one. Now she’s s co-president with Obama.  Only Obama has no authority.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:22 | 1087251 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

A lot of people talk about grand NWO banking conspiracies, but I don't buy into it. That's all too complicated. I think the simple explanation is the most plausible. Bernanke and the bankers are going to keep trying to sustain the unsustainable until it all collapses or someone removes him.

Whether or not he truly believes what he is doing will work, or whether the politicians do doesn't matter in the end, because that all implies some end point at which the rule of law makes them account for their actions and decides whether they where conspiring to destroy the economy or whether they were just negligent. That's never going to happen.

The bankers go along with it because it keeps their game going, prevents them from having to take any responsibility and, god forbid, put capital to productive use. The political class goes along because they don't understand it, or do, but either way it advances their game somehow.

In some dark irony to the spirit of free market capitalism, everyone is acting in their own irrational self-interest to form a system that goes against that spirit. Is it a parasitic vampire squid, or the enraged, mindless kraken? For the average person these questions don't matter, not anymore. It can't be saved. The die is cast. You can only prepare and try to survive.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:09 | 1087445 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

"A lot of people talk about grand NWO banking conspiracies, but I don't buy into it. That's all too complicated."

sorry it's so complicated for you. but then you write this ..

"The political class goes along because they don't understand it, or do, but either way it advances their game somehow."

Ireland voted no on EU, then they were forced to vote again when the outcome did on suit..

America is bleeding wealth to off shore centers for decades but you cannot see a plan? of course not your not an American citizen..

Free trade, banking more and more run by centralized international organisations with no obligations to the nations they control..

don't stay up at night worrying about the NWO you seem the type who has trouble with connecting dots and such..a perfect new citizen of the brave new world being made under your stiff little nose.

 

 

 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:54 | 1087582 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

I mean that the political class goes along only to advance their short term goals, to remain in office. I don't subscribe to vast conspiracies because I don't believe that most of them are competent enough to pull it off.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 21:53 | 1088182 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

I think there is a Grand Unified Conspiracy, led by the hive mind of the elites (a.k.a. Lucifer).  There is no individual or single group in control any more than there is a single neuron controlling your brain.  Most of the elites don't know what they are a part of, and most of them are rather stupid- but the hive mind is far smarter than any individual human, and its vision is measured in millenia.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:13 | 1087465 reader2010
Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:46 | 1087563 RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

Dr. Porkchop - I am in your camp as well. There is no grand conspiracy other than a monumental failure of connecting the 'system' (political, monetary or both) to a sustainable way of life. I think there is a genuine belief on the part of Bernanke and "bankers" that nothing bad will happen (or that the worst is past us). Greenspan didn't blame his monetary/rate policy for the housing bubble, but had they raised rates sooner, the roll back would have been less severe.

We are seeing it now in the form of banks with sub 3% HELOCs as banks try to put on earning assets even as consumers deleverage... the system demands profit and that means growth, and that means risk. It won't be quick, and it won't be painless.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 19:00 | 1087749 centerline
centerline's picture

I will meet you guys in the middle here.

That fundamentally everything driven by the same, age old human issues such as greed.  Kill or be killed, lone wolf stuff.  F***ing caveman spirit.  Power, sex, top of the food chain alpha stuff.

But, I will say that there must exist groups of people who are just waiting to capitalize on the fall of nations.  That is, NWO isn't one group.  I think it is many groups, each with their own ideas and probability of success or failure based on the turns of events.  Vultures.  And each pushing buttons to further their own causes.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 19:35 | 1087845 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

No, the NWO banking cartel does exist. For a while they were meeting incognito at Big Bob's Steak house on the third tuesday of every  month in Plano, texas. Then they formed their own Moose Lodge (No. 2279) and met at an undisclosed Moose Lodge location. Not sure what they are doing now. I assure you they are real, they are dangerous, and they must be stopped.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 21:08 | 1088131 Seer
Seer's picture

That's also my take on all of it.  Yeah, I think that there are a lot of wealthy people who would like to conspire to keep themselves in power, but they can't escape their fundamental nature of being competitive, and that things only can consolidate, which creates losers.  I think that many will resist seeing as their ends are written on the wall.  Power doesn't go quietly.

Even IF they could manage to cooperate and accept defeat (only ONE can be THE winner), I don't believe that there's enough surplus energy available to maintain their NWO.  And this is my wager, and I'm very confident that there's not enough energy to sustain it, that that which is further from a natural (balance) state is subject to greater entropic forces.  It's a pipe dream, benevolent or otherwise, something that will only ever exist in the mind.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 23:24 | 1088614 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

These arguments yours and the savvy dude in dallas are not directed at me but..  I think few serious people think the NWO meets or is actively planning our destruction.  It will be a natural outcome of the collapse to come.  The problem is those in position to survive this calamity will not design a system of merit so that your children and mine can reach the pinnacle through hard work, education, luck etc.  they will design a system of slavery covered and shielded by the MSM and other corrupt institutions,  These in toto at this point are the perpetrators and enablers of much malice.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 22:22 | 1088359 samsara
samsara's picture

Think of the Mafia as a framework.  The Genovese and  Gambino et al.   Cooperating, fighting between each other, turf wars....

BUT they all are gonna break your legs if you don't pay protection every week.

The Rockefellers, Rothchilds et al.   If you think nations, you're using the wrong paradigm.

If you really want to learn,  Watch Aaron for a little while to get an idea.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nD7dbkkBIA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbhzgZqWt8k

http://www.veoh.com/watch/v15325562kHprXCP

Oh, and yes the NWO will fail.  But they have no other option than to try.  They know the end is coming.

Ya Can't Print Oil

PEAK OIL baby

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 21:03 | 1088126 XPolemic
XPolemic's picture

A lot of people talk about grand NWO banking conspiracies, but I don't buy into it. That's all too complicated. I think the simple explanation is the most plausible.

You are half right. The simple explanation is that there is always conspiracies, always. Every power structure in the world was formed by a conspiracy, and every future one will be to. But this is a given, not some huge revelation.

The question as to whether or not there is a conspiracy to take power is ENTIRELY THE WRONG QUESTION. The real question is "What are the chances of it succeeding?" and a world government has roughly ZERO chance of succeeding (at least at this juncture in history). 

The fact that a world government has zero chance of succeeding will not deter people from trying (and failing) and so the most probable outcome of this attempt will be a century of war.

The real problem is, there is no clear benefit to having a world government. Look at the United States for example. Prosperous, technologically advanced, highly refined government and social institutions (courts, police, prisons), enlightened constitution, and yet look at the mess it is in. Is this the "New World Order" the world wants right now? No. And that's why any attempt to enforce it will fail.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 23:22 | 1088607 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

I do not subscribe to the many incredibly complex sophisticated conspiracies theorized or simply asserted here. They get so complex and involved that Ron Paul even becomes a schill or frontman in some of them. It becomes a snake eating its own tail. Look at the endgame for most of the banking and economic conspiracies. No one really wins with an impoverished world with no industry, innovation or consumers...or half the population dead and the other half in perpetual war. 

I do believe in conspiracy of interests. Governments are engaged in nearly infinited spending so they will conspire with bad economic theories with their central banks and the likes of a Bernanke. Bernanke acts as a battery to keep the machine running. I believe in conspiracies of socialist-statists because of their highly flawed but seductive ideologies. It's not like they all report to some secret central headquarters, but their actions naturally align themselves with similar endpoints. Most people in Congress are not smart enough to get very sophisticated. Listen to many of them. They are collosally stupendous morons. What really scares me is that they get elected and reelected which says something about the electorate.

Having said that, we can see the history of fiat currencies, the history of debtor nations, the history of large empires and wars, the history of centrally planned economies, the history of heavy handed bureaucracies and autocratic states, the history democratic socialist countries, the history of autocratic socialist countries and so on. So, I think this article is spot on.

I think the U.S. is cooked financially. We are in the economic microwave and it is running at full. No one just knows how long it will take to fry the economy, totally. The bottom line is there is just too much debt per person, per taxpayer, too many leeches bleeding the system, impossible to honor future obligations, too much currency, etc. I believe the Republicans, mainly the new ones elected through the Tea Party have the right motivation to reign in government but the wrong methods...or none at all. They will fail because everyone will note that they have not asked government to stop doing one single thing. They just want to do it for less money. They can only find $4bill to cut in a budget of close to $4000 bil. That is laughable or pitiful depending on your mood. They will fail.

To Baby Blythe and others I would not assume that a Paul-Paul ticket or something similar will rise to the top. Adolph came to power after the Weimar meltdown. The strongman with dictatorial power and a proposed dramatic solution always looks appealing to people. Our mainstream press is sympathetic to statists and autocrats. So, you do what you can as others here have said, namely PM's on the financial side and then wait, watch, adapt and count your friends and family.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:36 | 1087314 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Too much gloom and doom. Actually, what will buy us time is the new global digital currency that is brainstormed by IMF. The banksters along with commies will have another orgy fucking everyone else until it's too late.  

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 21:18 | 1088156 Seer
Seer's picture

Hm.. banksters and commies... still stuck in the 60s?

2/3 of the world's population lives on $3/day or less.  Digital world currency is looking a bit unlikely.

One need only look how the most advanced military the planet has ever known is unable to destroy a near-primative opposition should tell you that a NWO has no chance.

Sure, the wealthy will continue to design and play with Their systems, but as cheap energy decreases their sphere of influence will shrink.

BTW - Communism, as the world has seen, is a really poor system.  Anyone who believes that poor systems can take over is at odds with her/himself: why propose a superior system when superior system can't displace poor ones? (seems that they can't be that superior after all)  But... as reality has shown us, poor systems DON'T survive: they may exist for a period, and to some this period may be unacceptable, but EVENTUALLY they will fail.  So, get yer head out so that you can see that this is more of a fascist operation than a socialist one (or you can return your brain to the days of "Red Scare").

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 23:25 | 1088578 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Socialism is just communism by the drink. Socialists are fascists. Translated:  Nazi = National Socialist German Workers Party.

That's why the current crop want to control your lightbulbs, your refrigerator, your soda pop, candy bars, run snitch sites, put cameras in WalMart, want to scan you on the street, and pat your nuts down at the airport..... and these fascists are just warming up. 

 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 23:28 | 1088638 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

That is another argument I get weary of:  "the most advanced military the planet has ever known is unable to destroy a near-primative opposition"

The Soviets were kicking the shit out of the Afghans until they got our weapons, Stingers etc.  If our air and ground assets had unrestricted ROE's that war would be over in about two weeks. 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 23:33 | 1088646 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Exactly! Fascism is an autocratic socialist state that conspires with industry or even politically powerful groups for favors and protection. Economically, it privatizes profits and socializes losses. Our TBTF bailouts are the most perfect example possible. Politically connected businesses like Goldman Sachs gets access to public funds. Notice they are wealthy again as the main economy struggles and gasps for air. GM got public money because of their size and union-democrat connections. How many other businesses have or or going under with no similar deal?

We have created a democratically elected fascist state. All states as they become autocratic look for an enemy internal or external, or both to deflect attention and leverage more power. I have my theories of who it will be in the U.S.

As you sort of state, "poor systems DON't survive". I would say that the false impossible ideologies of the left are seductive but can never work. They always have and always will fail. We will try them and they will fail here, too. There is nothing special about America that will make them succeed. We just have more residual wealth to last longer than others.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 23:14 | 1088574 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Commies and banksters is exactly right. The commies/marxist/socialists demand more and more for nothing and the banksters are ecsatic getting rich on the deficit spending and printing the fiat to make it so.

The only thing better than a crony socialist country with a central bank? A socialist world with the IMF making debt slaves of the sheeple. 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:43 | 1087342 max2205
max2205's picture

Tyler,

 

IMO This needs some press....clients accounts are being cleaned out (at least by Etrade) even when the issues in questions are trading and marketable securities.  :

 

On January 22, 2003, via Important Notice B#3834, DTC announced its plans to implement a new service to allow the depository to destroy certain certificates representing positions in securities for which transfer agent services are no longer available, called “Non-Transferable Securities Certificates.” The Destruction of Non-Transferable Securities Certificates Program was introduced to address the costs and risk relating to the increasing percentage of non-transferable physical certificates in the depositoryÂ’s vault, which is now more than 34% of the depositoryÂ’s overall physical inventory. The depository submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission Filing No. SR-DTC-2003-09; SEC Filing for Program Regarding Destruction of Non-Transferable Securities Certificates, in which DTC sought the CommissionÂ’s approval to proceed with the destruction program. The filing was published in the Federal Register in January 2004; it subsequently received generally widespread industry support. The SEC approved the filing on June 28, 2004, and DTC instituted the certificate destruction process. In connection with this, your (XYZ) shares as a non-transferrable security has been removed totally from the account and based on the publication, the certificates will then be destroyed by DTC.
Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:45 | 1087357 So Close
So Close's picture

Maria Bartiromo just did a peice on returning to the gold standard on CNBC.   LOL.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:00 | 1087425 reader2010
reader2010's picture

the bullion baby now?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:27 | 1087514 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ So Close,

That would be a tiny bit of evidence that she does NOT understand gold.  She should read FOFOA!

fofoa.blogspot.com

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:25 | 1087511 Rockfish
Rockfish's picture

Today’s debate over federal spending and taxes is just so much fantasy. We’re like a family arguing about redoing the kitchen while the house burns down. It’s an irrelevant, annoying discussion. The interesting debate will take place after the collapse, when we have to decide what kind of society to rebuild from the rubble. Then we can argue for limited government and individual rights and sound money and all the rest. Politics will be interesting again!

Until then, we should protect our families and tend our gardens.

+110

 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:49 | 1087573 mendigo
mendigo's picture

while there are some interesting thoughts here it seems it is always a review of the same comments fiat money, bad fed, greedy banks - whatever

i wish one of these pundicts could go into how this is going to play-out

notice how all the talk about budget cutting has gone silent on both national and local level its a trick played by our leaders where they talk big up front they get people into such a frenzy that the voters wear themselves out and then sit home and bark at the tv (or pc) instead of doing anything constructive i think the effect of the tea party is only to give people a chance to vent if they can make the decline in standard of living slow enough there will be no drastic event which might trigger voters to act in concert 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:59 | 1087590 bbaez
bbaez's picture

Good Point?  What are/can we do about it?  Vote out all Incumbents?

End Corporate Welfare & Corporate Tax Loopholes?  End Price Subsidies?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 21:23 | 1088169 Seer
Seer's picture

Apparently you don't understand that ANY plan will be countered, that people cover all sides.  It's not about what's best, it's about what will make money.  And for most here that's what they'e fishing for (are you?).

Why sit around and guess?  How about YOU define what system that YOU would like and then work towards that/in that manner?

Waiting for some devine answer, an answer that may never come, is an indication of passiveness.  Not  agood way to be when the jackals are everywhere...

Read the exceprt that's just above yours.  That's really all you need to know!

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:51 | 1087578 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

We have not added Libya in the equation- What a crap, see this

 http://costofwar.com/en/

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:57 | 1087589 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

It's funny though, politically impossible things can quite easily change when there is no other option. 

Glass-Steagall and we can reset far safer and with much less damage then just letting things go pop.  (by concentrating the crash on what is worthless...bailouts, fraud debt, mbs/cmbs, derivatives, etc)

Glass-Steagall will crash those things to 0 instantly, allowing the physical economy to escape the worst aspects of it.  Add in the haircuts for every debt (which now has to happen) and even more of the destruction can be averted.

Just remember, during this scenario, you have to keep wages flat as opposed to declining along with the rest, and suddenly you don't need $30/hr to = FDR's 25 cent minimum wage.  If you collapse the crap, the current minimum wage might be relatively equal. 

 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 18:45 | 1087694 WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot's picture

Fucking COLLAPSE already! Let's get it over with. 

WTF!

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 21:28 | 1088178 Seer
Seer's picture

Just walk away.  If you ain't part of it it does't exist.  Sure, it'll try reaching for you, but enough people just plain stop being part of it it'll cease...

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 18:59 | 1087743 ihatecats
ihatecats's picture

GOLDSAVER,THAT'S ABOUT THE SAME ADVICE MY DAD GAVE  ME BACK IN THE 50'S.WE WERE FARMING WITH A TEAM OF HORSES.MADE IT UP TO A 3020 JOHN DEERE AND ALL THE STUFF TO GO WITH IT.WORKED FOR ME.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 19:59 | 1087920 Escapeclaws
Escapeclaws's picture

I recommend reading the interview cited above, "Straight Talk with Steve Keen, It's All about Debt". This will require attentive reading and concentration, but it will set many things straight and you will not regret the effort you made and the time you spent. Steve Keen seems to have the most sensible and correct approach to economics compared to other economists, running the gamut from Marx to Friedman.

Keen shows that Bernanke has things ass-backwards when he says: " The hyper-inflationists basically argue that government money creation will cause hyper-inflation. In this I think they’re unwittingly relying on the “Money Multiplier” model of money creation: the government prints $10, a depositor puts this in a bank account, the bank hangs onto $1 and lends out the other $9, which is deposited in another bank, and so on. Over time you turn $1 of government money into $10 total, which drives up demand for goods and services and causes inflation.

The Central Banks themselves are relying on the same model—especially Bernanke with QE1 and now QE2. So if the model actually worked, both Central Banks and the hyper-inflationists would be right: inflation would result and our current debt-deflationary crisis would become an inflationary one. The only difference is that the Central Banks think they can control and moderate the rate of inflation, and the hyper-inflationists think it will be a runaway process.

The trouble is, as I showed in the “Roving Cavaliers of Credit” post, is that this “deposits create loans” model isn’t how credit money is actually created. Instead, as good empirical work by Basil Moore and other Post Keynesians (and even staunch neoclassicals like Kydland and Prescott) has confirmed, “loans create deposits”, and government money creation largely follows credit money creation, rather than the other way around." "

It helps to have some idea of dynamical systems theory. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamical_system  However, this article is heavy on the mathematics. You can look at some of the demonstrations, such as the double pendulum (scroll down to see the visual). I would also recommend James Gleick's book, "Chaos, the Making of a New Science" for those wanting a non-mathematical approach.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 22:08 | 1088312 samsara
samsara's picture

That’s why I don’t publish much political commentary on DollarCollapse. Today’s debate over federal spending and taxes is just so much fantasy. We’re like a family arguing about redoing the kitchen while the house burns down. It’s an irrelevant, annoying discussion. The interesting debate will take place after the collapse, when we have to decide what kind of society to rebuild from the rubble. Then we can argue for limited government and individual rights and sound money and all the rest. Politics will be interesting again!

Until then, we should protect our families and tend our gardens.

 

The political discussion at this point is truly irrelevant.

Protect your self and your family and others close to you.

 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 22:36 | 1088416 Poofter Priest
Poofter Priest's picture

I got a warning from my anti virus program when I went to dollarcollapse.com

 

Just an FYI

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yxhlhq's picture

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Tue, 03/22/2011 - 22:57 | 1088508 P-K4
P-K4's picture

Another great read !

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Tue, 03/22/2011 - 23:05 | 1088552 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Maybe self determination, self government, and sound money with free markets will return. Drill baby drill.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 08:37 | 1089342 Bitch Tits
Bitch Tits's picture

"After grad school in the mid-1980s I went to Wall Street as an equity analyst, but when junk bonds got hot -- and demand for junk bond analysts exploded -- I switched sides. Just in time for the junk bubble to burst."

So when will you be getting out of the Gold bubble then?

It is illusory, this idea of "money". Money is what we want it to be, whether that be fiat, Gold, slate rock, tissues or bananas. You can feed me a line about how important and precious Gold is, but it isn't. There are as many uses for tissues or bananas, too. The point is, whenever everyone hops on a certain bandwagon, the wheels are going to come off.

Get out of Gold now and invest your money in the only way and place it truly matters to human beings.

Put it into human beings and their endeavors to improve life for human beings. Period.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!