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Chris Whalen Comments On Upcoming Financials' Earnings
Topics covered include:
- Mortgage servicing rights
- Early stage delinquencies
- Credit card chargeoffs (5.5%-6% at Citi would require a new capital raise, CapitalOne hitting 10%)
- Fed subsidies to banks that expire into 2010
- The Commercial Real Estate "mirage"
- Trillions of dollars in off-balance sheet vehicles (what happens to these securitizations eventually)
- JPM's downward management of expectations
- BofA's provisions and chargeoffs
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From the CNBS chyron:
"Breaking News: Dow Approaching 10,000"
Yeah, this isn't "tout TV" and they're totally objective. As an aside, aren't these the same on-air types that snicker at cycle theorists, but they have no problem with their own numerology of 10,000?
This guy gives a massive burp at 2:02. Definitely worth a listen.
Yeah, that was cool.
Sure, he's right on all of his commentary. Unfortunately, we're in an environment where the only things that matter are political connections and scale (TBTF). I am all for free markets, but the free markets would have put these big banks into receivership, but now these same banks are booking record earnings.
Accounting laws have been changed, transparency is at an all time low, and the broader economy is becoming extremely bifurcated. The wealthiest have been saved, while the broader classes are f*cked.
Ding. OBS exposures will need to be cured by the issuing institution since they were under capitalized at inception. THE dark horse.
BREAKING NEWS FROM CNBS: Dow to approach 10,000!
That in itself, is a green shoot.
Earnings? What "earnings"? They are all friggin' BANKRUPT for Chrissake!
+1,000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000.
Some arrogant compost pile was on CNBC early this morning talking about how silly it was to expect the banks to mark-to-market and how reality was restored to the stock market when mark-to-market was suspended in early April.
If I could have reached through the screen, I would have slapped that smug smile off his face. About all I could manage was to change the TV to ESPN sports-center for the NFL and baseball highlights.
Then I found out my Red Sox were swept and the Patriots lost in overtime to Denver and I went back to bed and pulled the covers over my head.
Your fault for being a Sox/Pats fan.
That was Ed Yardeni. The arrogance was, indeed, breathtaking.
The movie "Weekend at Bernie's" comes to mind.
They did a better job of making Bernie look like he was still alive.
It's all spin-doctoring. I never believe these talking heads. Excetions made for Whitney, Schiff, Denninger, Soros and Rogers (I'm sure I forgot a couple others)....
If I were Obama, I'd have appointed Whalen SecTreas.
Well, we are facing an "important" resistance level (what a joke) ahead of the "essential" earning reports. Does anyone doubt that the BORG collective will join the forces and do everything possible to highlight that resistance is futile?
There is only one problem on horizon - rediscovery by the Borg of their human nature and particularly the fear factor of it, when facing "unexpected" outcomes - ever increasing deflation!
Yeah, we can!!!
FoxBusiness is equally pathetic - On my laptop I often tune in to Bloomberg radio or TV for the audio and also FoxBiz (muted) for the visuals (ticker etc)
Nice outro by Whalen... "thanks Marc".
Wrong Faber, Marc is the smart one.
Yeah, Chris definitely stumbled there. Quite a difference between Marc Faber and David Faber.
Are they kissing cousins?
George Soros is a Keynesian, and he is also an ugly mofo
There’s a dead end to the Fed and government taking the wealth that other people produce. And this is it!
We’re in a hype-bloated economy that might not survive the year. It’s all based on a giant stack of paper with Goldman-style investment bankers at the center. It certainly isn’t based on a big stack of product and growth and value and future. Benny’s La La Land sits atop a mountain of debt and paper and promises. It’s like the Obama presidency. There’s nothing in it. The Nobel Prize is an incredible symbol; it actually mentions Obama’s speeches in the Prize, as if words are all you need. That’s what this market is—words and promises. All its bullish bull froth is anticipation of things unseen, that don’t exist.
Patience, bears and patriots. It’s not going down until it breaks, and it looks very close.
Whatever the banks have to say this week will have nothing to do with whether the economy is going to respond. Equities may respond; but until the economy responds, in the end, it doesn’t mean anything. The decider as to what happens to all of us is not the DOW or the banks or Obama’s speeches. What happens to us will be determined by the economy--consumer activity, growth in companies, people getting back to work--production and distribution and consumption of which there is very little evidence. Unfortunately, until it breaks, the economy is in the hands of financiers and salesmen with absolutely no scruples; the kind of people who prey on old ladies. They steal their homes with reverse mortgages, their Social Security with inflation, their savings with 1 percent interest to live on while transit fares et al. increase 30 percent…
Case in point: “Laverne Kidwiler, 86, was dismayed to find out that her reverse mortgage had consumed all the equity in the San Jose home she bought with her late husband 60 years ago. He was a school custodian and she was a cashier at a college cafeteria.
“’In 1993, when my dad had just passed away, she was feeling alone and fearful, so she took out this reverse mortgage that would pay her $500 a month,’ said her son, Marv Kidwiler, also of San Jose.
“Last year, when the family checked about refinancing the home, they found that Kidwiler owed $601,802 to repay the debt—even though she’d only received about $120,000—roughly what the house was worth." --SF Chronicle October 7, 2009
(Reverse mortgages increased 160 percent from 2005 to 2008 based on HUD figures.)
rockin the resistance - check it! End the FED!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNKHnVjIJM8
They're talking about the "jobless recovery" on CNBC as if it's a greenshoot, in so many words. I'm not kidding. The new buzz phrase is now "jobless recovery". Am I dreaming? Is this insanity?
Soon it will be called a "growthless recovery", and they will spin that, too.
You must have missed a permabull presentation
or two....the theory goes that because the
job losses will be "permanent" and
ain't never coming back, earnings will
benefit. This second derivative shit
drives normal people crazy, but on wall
street they will say anything.
growthless recovery
haven't seen this one, lol! well said chindit.