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Chris Wood (CLSA) Latest Thoughts On PIIGS, Europe And China
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Any capital lent to Greece is going to be a temporary solution (6 mo.?)
The problems aren't going away in 6 mo. In 5 mo.? they're going to need more money.
When does it stop?
Why throw good money after bad when you have other problems that the money could be use for?
Because gov't waste employs voters...
Greek voters just need to figure out some way to vote for German politicians.
"Any capital lent to Greece is going to be a temporary solution (6 mo.?)"
Sounds like the US.
Note:
The German retirement age is 65 now, and will be raised to 67 only in 2031 (!) by a slow phase in starting in 2012.
Even with that, the German pension system is completely unsustainable.
I disagree a bit when it comes to the China. I wouldn't go short yet, however most reports do underestimate the impact of near future trade war. Our administration will be forced to do more to stimulate our job markets and the only feasible way of doing so (after all of those fin/re bailouts we don't have extra resources to be placed into the sci - tech / energy development ) IS to erect the trade barriers. And since the Chinese bubble is reliant on the western firms using them as destination # 1 for offshore jobs, those effects might be large enough to make their bubble go burst.
Extend and pretend is all there is left. There is no Plan B.
More accurate to say that we have passed plan B and are now at plan G or H.
Oh yeah, CLSA compliance is widely feared.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124696581789905307.html
Great article Chris thanks.
Ditto; clearly written & no interuptions from talking head TV teleprompter readers. Critical thinking here to be savored & digested. Thank you sir.
The extreme sensitivity that the HSI is currently showing to any dollar strength makes it difficult to reconcile his strong dollar / strong china view
SHCOMP isn't exactly roofing it since this report either
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