Chronicling Einhorn's Multi-Year Vendetta With St. Joe, And Some Relative Performance Perspectives

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Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:02 | 653998 bugs_
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Looks like someone wants that undeveloped land.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:09 | 653999 Cvillian
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I recall sitting in a meeting with David around the time he was trying to get a board seat on this little company called New Century Financial. That went to 0. Of course, he is quite successful and it's fairly short sighted on my part to point out singular losers...

Sat, 10/16/2010 - 14:20 | 655298 harveywalbinger
harveywalbinger's picture

Ever consider that taking NCF to 0 was Einhorn's intent?  One of Einhorn's plays is to gain a seat on a company BOD (or feign interest), as this is a diversion from the fact that he's actually doing his damnedest to steer the company off a cliff (shorting the bejeezus out of it)... 

http://www.deepcapture.com/how-activist-investors-david-einhorn-and-dan-...

I suspect that what you refer to as a "loser" was in all actuality very much a winner... at least for David Einhorn. 

http://www.deepcapture.com/notes-on-david-einhorn-the-predator-in-a-cute...

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:37 | 654106 AccreditedEYE
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He certainly isn't Berkowitz's friend anymore either... LOL. Brucie probably had a migraine at the end of today with financials getting kicked in the nuts.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 18:57 | 654314 Mercury
Mercury's picture

In essence the only thing that has changed is the price target: in 2007 Einhorn saw a fair value of JOE of $15, when the stock was $53. This time, when the stock was $25, he values it anywhere between $0 and $10. Could he eventually be proven right?

Sounds like he's already making a killing.  'Right' enough for me.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 19:05 | 654333 putbuyer
putbuyer's picture

The own a million acres and alot of it waterfront. If they can ride it out, they can score on the next RE bubble. Based on MKT CAP that 2K per acre. Plus they have the timber business.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 19:47 | 654419 nmewn
nmewn's picture

I've been looking at it also...I think it's closer to half a million acres they own now.

As much as I dislike Einhorn as the media whore he is, he may be on to something here. Most of their land is inland and they have sold off quite a bit of it over the last decade or so...still...they don't make it anymore...but without the div there's not much reason for an "investor" to buy the stock at this level unless your looking for a quick scalp (and it snaps back before rolling over again).

This is less than inspiring also...LOL.

http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/745308.htm

It would be a real crap shoot...but the odds are against the stock...IMO...the land will be used somehow...timber, hunt leases, developed, whatever, eventually...but the stock equity is being drained off right now as the insider sales and stock option awards show.

My two cents.

 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 19:40 | 654399 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

Kinda hard to see how a company that owns a ton of land with no debt could go to zero.  It's basically an exercise in land valuation.  Book value is $10, and much of the half million acres of land they own is held at absurdly low book values - most of it was acquired in the 1930's and '40's

Sat, 10/16/2010 - 09:32 | 654983 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Land is always kept at historical values. I doubt Einhorn overlooked such a common accounting concept?

Sat, 10/16/2010 - 18:13 | 655585 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

hmmm... cost basis will be taking a round trip. LMAO!!

Sat, 10/16/2010 - 12:25 | 655158 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

Einhorn sounded the battle cry against MCO a few month's back.  The stock tanked hard for a few days then rallied 50%.

Sun, 10/17/2010 - 04:43 | 656182 Grand Supercycle
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GOLD updated chart showing parabolic move.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Tue, 11/16/2010 - 10:15 | 730468 daniel
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Really this is a great post from an expert and thank you very much for sharing this valuable information with us.
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