There is a lot of interesting information to look at. The spooks have
been updating the info for 2010. Some of the year over year comparisons
are interesting. In its intro to the Global Economy they had the
following to say. I think they summed things up pretty well:
The fiscal stimulus packages put in place in 2009-10 required most countries to run budget deficits - government balances have deteriorated for 14 out of every 15 countries. Treasuries issued new public debt - totaling $5.5 trillion since 2008
- to pay for the additional expenditures. To keep interest rates low,
many central banks monetized that debt, injecting large sums of money
into the economies. As economic activity picks up, central banks will face the difficult task of containing inflation without raising interest rates so high they snuff out further growth.
Some individual statistics to consider:
World GDP up 4.6% to 74.4 trillion (3.2T YoY). (Man, that is a lot of
zeros.) The US is 20% of total GDP. It contributed only 14% of the total
growth. Just a bit more evidence the US economic clout is on the wane.
Public debt is on the rise. It looks like a small increase. From 56.2%
to 58.3% of GDP. Only 2.1%. That doesn’t seem like a big change, right?
But look at the implications. Total PSD rises by 3.4T while global GDP
rises by only 3.2T. This means that it takes $1.06 of new debt to create
$1 of growth. What better evidence do you need that what we are doing
is unsustainable?
This is equivalent to M1 and M3. Note that they are rising at 7 and 11%
respectively. Money is growing at twice the rate of GDP. If you wanted
(another) reason to buy PMs this is it.
Domestic credit increases by $10 Trillion (10%) in just one year! Total
credit is rising at a rate of 3Xs that of real GDP. Guys like Krugman
will tell you that this is a good thing. To me it is a sign that
hyperinflation can’t be very far off.
1.4T brls. of oil. That’s a lot of oil. Of interest, the CIA had an
estimate in 2004 for this number of 1.3T. So as much as we use, they
keep finding more. The globe is currently burning up about 85mm brls a
day. That suggests we have 45 more years at current consumption. Heaven
help us if they did not keep finding the stuff as fast as we are using
it. Oil would be $200 in a short period of time.
Where is all this oil? The CIA has a link
for that. The US has 19b of those reserves. But we use 20mm brls a day.
So the US reserve/consumption is only 2.6 years. Talk about a strategic
weakness.
At the moment the global reserves are worth $130 trillion (2Xs all
stocks!). With that number in mind you can expect folks to be punching
holes in the ground for a long time to come.
Most of this oil is with our “friends” in the Middle East:
Saudi……..264b
Kuwait…...104b
Iraq………115b
Bahrain…..124b
Other places where there is lots of oil?
Libya………47b
Angola….…20b
Iran…….…137b
Nigeria….....37b
Venezuela.....98b
But look at these deals. China “owns” all that oil:
A bright spot for the US is Canada. They are sitting on 175b of
reserves. It’s probably not a good decade to short the Loonie. Possibly
the US should just go ahead and invade Canada. On the flip side we
should leave Mexico alone. They have just 12b barrels left.
Total exports are up YoY by $2.5T. An increase of 20%. That is your
evidence of a global recovery. The US is sharing in that increase. US
exports rose from 1.07t to 1.27t, so America matched the global growth
rate. Does this mean that if the rest of the world slows down the US is
going to get hit hard? Yes it does.
I found this interesting. More than one-third of the global population
are farmers. But they only produce 6% of GDP. Conclusion(s)? We have
inefficient farmers all over the world. Food prices are going up looking
at this.
One more slide. This one is not updated for 2010
I will estimate that the 2010 number is $55 T, or an increase of $6T.
GDP rose by only $3.2T. Equities grew by twice that of top line trade.
This, no doubt, proves Bernanke’s master plan. Make stocks go higher and
it boosts total production. But this is a two way street we are playing
on. While it is true that when stocks go up GDP rises. It is also very
true that when equities fall, GDP slumps. The fate of the global economy
is at risk to the stock market. How much more fragile could we get?
The Air Jordan 2011 are the option of basketball players circle the world and for this purpose, your corporation, Nike is now set one of the maximum presidents in the field of shoe from the ball better.Here comes a fresh color of the Air Jordan 1 Phat Low on which I privately was very joyous for moderately several time. The Olympic colorway of the deep-cut and well-padded Air Jordan 1 has a black nubuck surface, which is blended with a slightly shiny swoosh in crocodile leather effect. They are eye-catching and of course the purpose that the fresh Air Jordan New Arrivals Phat Low even paged Olympia but undoubtedly the colored seams. http://airjordanshoesol.com/
I didn't see that stat for the tonnage of drugs brought into the USSA from the golden triangle and (now) Afghanistan, by the CIA.
Or the number of 'hits' they've made, both foreign and domestic.
Regarding oil, the actual and probable reserves change with price and technology. Higher price makes more available and is thus counted.
The problem is the higher prices. Cheap energy is what has allowed us to keep credit cheap for all these years.(ie, print money)
If we can't keep "printing money" whatever will we do? I think we'll get austere....gh
"I found this interesting. More than one-third of the global population are farmers. But they only produce 6% of GDP. Conclusion(s)? We have inefficient farmers all over the world. Food prices are going up looking at this."
A couple reasons for "inefficient farmers". People want to know what is in their food. And people want to control their food. That is to say they want the food to go to their table and not be exported so the regime can earn dollars. So they like to grow it locally, regardless of the economics involved.
I thought part of the CIA's mission was to foment discord around the world when it served our national interest? Apparently, it's not impossible, nor very difficult. How did it work out for the Soviets in Afghanistan? Is it only a matter of time until the Muslim Brotherhood branches out towards China? They're extracting commodities from foreign lands just like everyone else. Jihad, bitches
How's that working out for the US in Afghanistan? Since when does blowback serve our national interests?
You won't have to invade Canada. Alberta, who has the oil, hates the rest of Canada anyway, they'll gladly join up with Montana all the way down to Texas in some kind of ultra-conservative skunk stripe union down the back of the continent.
Luckily, I'm already here or I'd ask where can I sign up!
Now that's a movement I could get behind.
X2
the asshole cia couldn't even see the demise of the ussr - their intelligence is so half baked you could nuke with an icbm and it would be undercooked.
of course the fact that the plutocrats ordered the end of the ussr is another story for another time.
A catastrophic event will occur that precipitates the end-game scenario. It is largely irrelevant as to what form this event will manifest itself, but I believe that it must transpire before the elite can implement their final contingency plans. (i.e., Continuity of Government, global depopulation, etc.)
Personally, I suspect a cataclysmic natural disaster is forthcoming, possibly in the form of a polar shift of the planet by as much as 40 degrees.
</blackswan>
Good stuff, but I agree that oil analysis is too rosy. It's about production and cost of production, not just reserves. It's also way to simplistic to assume constant demand/daily usage and divide reserves by that - demand is growing, especially in the non-OECD countries. We will never "run out of oil", but we will (and likely already have) hit peak production, especially on light sweet. When it takes more than 1bbl to get 1bbl out of the ground, the rest of it stays parked in the dirt.
"A bright spot for the US is Canada."
Yep...if I recall it's Canada, Mexico, House of Saud...in that order, for the US anyways.
On oil, I wouldn't dwell or rely too much on "proven reserves", it's kinda like GAAP accounting rules. Consider that just a few years ago, the US's proven reserves of natural gas were down to about 4 years. Thanks to technology and new discoveries, the US now has more than 100 years of proven reserves and long nat.gas is a widow maker trade.
The Baken formation alone contains 500 billion barrels, though only 1% is recoverable with current technology. Also, consider the US has the world's largest coal reserves, which can be converted to more than 300 billion barrels of oil.
Well done, Bruce. Fun facts.....not so fun truth to chew on.
Repeat after me. Oil is NOT fungible.
The problem with the oil analysis as presented is that neither oil nor any other liquid hydrocarbon fuel is fungible in terms of extraction cost, refining costs, energy return on energy invested, or time to market. Moreover, the proportion of "P90" vs. "P50" vs. "P10" oil seems to shift depending on who does the reservoir analysis. Reliable numbers are hard to come by.
Bottom line? A great deal of the 1.4 trillion barrels of conventional oil will never be extracted profitably. 45 years of oil is a *very* optimistic analysis, even if we include "unconventional" sources and "unproven" resources.
All this, of course, is assuming that there are not concentrated terrorist attacks on oil facilities, no resource nationalism (i.e. hoarding), no regional wars in the middle east, Russia or central Asia, no breakdowns in oil extraction supply chains due to economic pressure and no oil price feedback (i.e. high oil prices themselves cause oil prices to rise) when lower supplies make demand truly inelastic and prices cannot decrease significantly due to lessening market demand.
Cheers!
Cool,
Then maybe the next tin horn Dictator that sticks their finger in our eye, with lots of oil, may be the newest Colony of the US of A. Colonialism worked dandy for the Brits, maybe we can be more PICKY.
Way past time we spend our treasure, and blood and guts for free, and only at our expense.
You do a great job of simplifying and summarizing complex macroeconomic problems, Bruce. Thanks for your post.
And the numbers in the ground are hardly verifiable. Last international audit of Saudi.....never. Meanwhile in another neck of the woods environmental cost of extracting oil from tar....massive. Remember the rule: 1 barrel to get 100 in 1930, 1 barrel to get 30 in 1970, 1 barrel to get less than 10 now.
Baba,
One of the Big Kings in Saudi made a statement a few weeks back, that one,if not their largest field/well, that they had previously thought to be at 50% reserves, was found to have another 200 Billion barrels PLUS, more than their last gusessimate.
We know Iraq has wads, as does Iran. Also,a HUGE Natural gas find was made off the Israeli coast.
It's not what's in the ground that really "counts," it's the rate (and cost) of production. A lot of the oil in the ground may be ultimately worthless:
United States 11297 7337 -35% 1970 Venezuela 3754 2566 -32% 1970 Libya 3357 1846 -45% 1970 Other Middle East 79 33 -58% 1970 Kuwait 3339 2784 -17% 1972 Iran 6060 4325 -29% 1974 Indonesia 1685 1004 -41% 1977 Romania 313 99 -68% 1977 Trinidad & Tobago 230 149 -35% 1978 Iraq 3489 2423 -31% 1979 Brunei 261 175 -33% 1979 Tunisia 118 89 -25% 1980 Peru 196 120 -39% 1982 Cameroon 181 84 -54% 1985 Other Europe & Eurasia 762 427 -44% 1986 Russian Federation 11484 9886 -14% 1987* Egypt 941 722 -23% 1993 Other Asia Pacific 276 237 -14% 1993 India 774 766 -1% 1995* Syria 596 398 -33% 1995 Gabon 365 235 -36% 1996 Argentina 890 682 -23% 1998 Colombia 838 618 -26% 1999 United Kingdom 2909 1544 -47% 1999 Rep. of Congo (Brazzaville) 266 249 -6% 1999* Uzbekistan 191 111 -42% 1999 Australia 809 556 -31% 2000 Norway 3418 2455 -28% 2001 Oman 961 728 -24% 2001 Yemen 457 305 -33% 2002 Other S. & Cent. America 153 138 -10% 2003* Mexico 3824 3157 -17% 2004 Malaysia 793 754 -5% 2004* Vietnam 427 317 -26% 2004 Denmark 390 287 -26% 2004 Other Africa 75 54 -28% 2004* Nigeria 2580 2170 -16% 2005* Chad 173 127 -27% 2005* Italy 127 108 -15% 2005* Ecuador 545 514 -6% 2006* Saudi Arabia 11114 10846 -2% 2005 / Growing Canada 3320 3238 -2% 2007 / Growing Algeria 2016 1993 -1% 2007 / Growing Equatorial Guinea 368 361 -2% 2007 / Growing China 3795 3795 - Growing United Arab Emirates 2980 2980 - Growing Brazil 1899 1899 - Growing Angola 1875 1875 - Growing Kazakhstan 1554 1554 - Growing Qatar 1378 1378 - Growing Azerbaijan 914 914 - Growing Sudan 480 480 - Growing Thailand 325 325 - Growing Turkmenistan 205 205 - Growing Peaked / Flat Countries Total - 49597 - 60.6% of world oil production Growing Countries Total - 32223 -39.4% of world oil production
Only 14 out of 54 oil producing countries and regions in the world continue to increase production, while 30 are definitely past their production peak, and the remaining 10 appear to have flat or declining production [1]. Put another way, peak oil is real in 61% of the oil producing world when weighted by production. Since 2008 capped a record run for oil prices, most countries and oil companies were trying all-out to increase production. While a handful of producers (think Iraq) might be limited by above-ground factors, the majority of producers simply couldn't do any better in 2008 [2].
- source: oildrum
Oil looks like being treated very lightly.
What is that number? What does it cover?
Oil reserves do not state much. Save it tells about oil that can be recovered with current technology.
If it encompasses all kinds of oil, with no distinction in recovery means, the approximation on years left on oil is inaccurate and could lead to something lower. Which would surprise me as I figured out 48 years of resources to keep going at a similar pace.
Oil looks like being treated very lightly.
As it should,IMHO, its used as a tool to keep foreign relations good,trade, and for scare tactics to run up our prices.
The American public will NEVER know the true crude reserves that the Gvt knows about.We have more Quality coal, and natural gas, than any nation on the globe, but you never hear it.
With the Oceanic coastlines we have, there is absolutely no way to tell what our TRUE oil reserves are.
Same way as they will not allow drilling for what we DO know about.
None of it makes sense, of course to you and I it doesn't, we have no ulterior motives.
Knowing the spooks, their interest is in which countries are going to be destabilized by inflation (everybody).
In the good old days they would just get oil by making plans to overthrow Venezuela, Saudi, and Canada; and the Ivory Coast, too, for their delicious chocolate. All of which explains why the collapse of the USSR took them by surprise.
While it is true that when stocks go up GDP rises. It is also very true that when equities fall, GDP slumps
Is it even remotely possible that BSB has it backwards?
Every time my cock crows the sun comes up
http://dshort.com/articles/Q-Ratio-and-market-valuation.html
They's been so accurate in the past...
I have a whole different perspective on these numbers.
If GDP rises less than public debt, then the world is still spiraling downward. Public debt is stimulus and stimulus is a reduction in production. Debt cannot create wealth. If credit is expanding by 3x to GDP, then the depression is getting worse.
As for farming, like mining, the money is in the finished products. Finished products are not classified as agricultural, just as mining is not part of steel production or construction. This has nothing to do with efficiency.
As commodity inflation grows, it will be interesting to see if the percentage changes.
Also, is dollar inflation factored into these numbers? If not, then the picture is even less rosy and may indicate that the global economy has yet to recover from 2008- which when I look around me, appears to be the greater truth.
Thanks for the piece Bruce.
Thank you Bruce. I always enjoy your wisdom.
I wonder what the Rothschilds family is worth.
Dunno...they're slightly used and really wrinkly; I'll give you $50 for Evelyn.
I wonder if the moon is made of green cheese. Or maybe a more comparable non sequitur would be I wonder what the value of Mars is if it were traded on ICE. Sheesh.
...one quentillion-bajillion FRNs (i.e. worthless...)
more than all everyone combined.
once is enough, maybe the server read the part about doubling time and got confused...
Well, I like to start with the reported fact that their family wealth was $1 billion dollars in 1850!!!
So taking the rule of 72, and assuming a 6% return, they would double their money every 12 years. It is now 160 years later, so that is atleast 15 doublings.
So that is 32,768 times as much as they had in 1850, giving them an approximate wealth of 33 000 billion, aka 33 trillion!!!
Since they were involved in the slave trade, the opium wars, drug smuggling, government debt, on top of running the worlds banking system... I think 6% is maybe low-balling it.
PsychoNews: http://psychonews.site90.net
I saw / heard on a YouTube video (yeah, great specificity and source there Bearing...) that the Rothschilds may be worth:
$500 trillion
I am not in a position to comment, but I do love reading extreme stuff...
http://www.forbes.com/2002/02/28/0228dynasties_print.html
1.5B
so, things are looking up then?
Good stuff Bruce, I always enjoy reading your analysis. Thank you and keep up the great work!
Great post Bruce..
Thx
"But look at these deals. China “owns” all that oil:"
Not if the guys who wrote the book have anything to say about it.
/:
good one. The CIA facts that are by far the most fun, are never published
Great report....the farming stats are surprising...perhaps barter is reducing the reported numbers in that arena???
That and many of the rural farms in Asia are mainly villages that need a lot of people for their sustenance. Grandmas, kids, etc.
It seems that the probable output capacity (not much at all...) of all those people would make that statistic legitimate.
Scary to think China has all these oil rights tied up with our enemy countries like Venezuela. When push comes to shove who invades who?
Venezuela isn't are enemy; we just treat everyone like shit to maintain our lifestyle. Kick a dog enough times, and he'll turn on you.
the Chavez regime is currently running at 22% inflation, so problems are escalating there.
Huh?,
Tell that to Chavez, hes been fudgpacking our ass every chance he gets.
PLUS, they have made a deal to bring in a couple of thousand SAM's from out Bestest buddies , the Rooskies.
We are going to be totally surrounded within 10 yrs, with nuke armed South American Dictators.
None (99%) of us have never seen / lived in a country that imploded on itself.............until now.If we did not have the nuke supply we have, we would already be toast.
We concern ourselves with Iran and nukes, when the real threat is North Korea.They will, or do, (who knows) have the ability to hit the US w/ Nukes, very soon.
Now, excuse da French, but those some crazy mofos.
when will hyperinflation in the USA begin? 2013? What's your guess?
overlooked:
the use of gold is down, progress is slowing, slavery is up.
http://covert2.wordpress.com