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Citi Blasts Moody's Optimism, Says UK AAA Rating Is Doomed

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Two days ago we highlighted Moody's full report on sovereign AAA ratings, in which the rater was highlighting its own impotence of knowing full well that both the US and UK are unworthy of AAA ratings, yet unable to do anything about this, as a downgrade of either would set of a chain of events that could potentially undo the last year of house of card building by both key governments, who have set off on creating the biggest ponzi scheme in the history of the world, and whose collapse would result in the same social unrest that was expected to happen in the UK if RBS and HBOS were to fail (which presumably was averted by literally last minute action). Today, none other than glass house inhabitant Citigroup, which would not be in existence if the true state of financial and economic affairs was disclosed in even one tenth of its magnitude, bashes Moody's as being, gasp, too optimistic. Citi analyst Mark Schoefield says "in our view the pre-budget report leaves us significantly closer to a negative ratings action by virtue of having done nothing to slow the current pace of deterioration in the fiscal position."

Some of the key observations from Citi:

The UK has certainly not been immune to the moves elsewhere with the 5yr CDS widening to 85bp from 45bp two months ago, while 10yr swap spreads have come in 30bp over the quarter. We think this is understandable given the UK's grim fiscal outlook and certainly should raise the question as to whether or not the UK's AAA rating is sustainable against a fiscal position that really belies that status. Our economics team continues to stress that the deficit is likely to remain elevated for many years and that debt is heading steadily towards 100% of GDP.

Crucial to the UK maintaining its status are assumptions that the economy has begun to expand sustainably. Absent this assumption, the expected fall in longterm revenues has not been offset, as yet, by any commensurate reduction in expenditure and as such the European Commission sees the structural public deficit in excess of 10% of GDP. This, Moody's describes as "an inexorable deterioration of debt affordability in the short-term under almost all foreseeable scenarios".

Given the importance that Moody's attaches to debt affordability, the key phrase appears to be "in the short-term". Moody's seems to be giving the UK the benefit of the doubt on the back of a perception that debt affordability and reversibility are high and more than likely because it feels that the outcome of the general election is too close to call and therefore the fiscal path down which the UK will go in 2010 is as yet unclear.

Looking at the Moody's report in a little more detail, it cites among other factors, the ability to issue inflation-linked Gilts at close to zero real yields and strong demand for Gilts, albeit boosted by the asset  purchase facility, as key factors that make the UK resilient rather than vulnerable at the current point in time. The other key factor supporting the UK's rating is a belief that the public consensus will now permit any of the main political parties to follow through their pre-election pledges for fiscal restraint, whatever the outcome of the election.

It is on these points that we think Moody's current assessment is too generous, or at least that the consensus perception of what Moody's is saying is too complacent. We think debt affordability and reversibility look set to deteriorate rapidly and in very short order for three reasons. Indeed, it may be the case that Moody's sees this too but that in the near term is prepared to offer a little slack while the political situation is resolved and to allow the incoming administration a short while to put a credible fiscal plan on the table. We doubt, however, that this patience will hold for very long given the rapidly deteriorating outlook and the lack of evidence of a credible solution.

We understand Moody's assessment of the short-term outlook, but we see significant risk of a marked and rapid deterioration in both debt affordability and reversibility that could quickly become self reinforcing. Unless we get a credible set of measures put in place quickly, which seems unlikely unless we get a Conservative government with a clear majority at the next election, we think the UK's Aaa rating will be right up on the radar screens in a very short space of time. The lasting legacy of the current administration may well prove to be the loss of the UK's AAA credit rating.

Full Citi report:

 

 

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Thu, 12/10/2009 - 12:13 | 158994 SayTabserb
SayTabserb's picture

Thatcherism, Reaganomics - R.I.P.  Meanwhile, the Commies of the East continue their inexorable rise, aided by the former Titans of Industry of the West. What was that Lenin said about capitalists and rope?

Thu, 12/10/2009 - 12:15 | 158998 Arthor Bearing
Arthor Bearing's picture

You tin foil hatters just don't understand.

 

(The more scepticism about the poor state of the world economy, the more berries and game in the woods there is for me!)

Thu, 12/10/2009 - 20:19 | 159631 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

...just hope that you don't become "game"

Thu, 12/10/2009 - 12:24 | 159008 chindit13
chindit13's picture

In the court of public opinion, with regard to deteriorating credit quality, Citi has to qualify as an expert witness.

Let experience be your guide.

Thu, 12/10/2009 - 12:45 | 159034 deadhead
deadhead's picture

talk about the pot calling the kettle black.

this is going beyond surreal. 

 

Thu, 12/10/2009 - 12:48 | 159039 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

So let me get this straight..

The UK may get downgraded due to their debt. Yet the US, who if we don't get a public option or single payer/non-profit health care like most every other civilized country will not do anything with 17% and ever growing part of our economy will be just fine, no neg watch or anything else.

And this is Citi saying this, who now that is is barely existing solely due to the largess of the taxpayer wants to pay us back, even though when the next shoe drops there will be nothing left but us?

And they say we're the crazy ones?

Thu, 12/10/2009 - 13:00 | 159059 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

It is the "die last" game.  Make the other guy die before you do.

Thu, 12/10/2009 - 13:10 | 159071 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

The pot calls the kettle black

Thu, 12/10/2009 - 13:11 | 159072 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Sorry deadhead, you did beat me to it.

Thu, 12/10/2009 - 13:32 | 159097 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

A serious question for the experts: There is anybody anymore that pays any attention to what Moody's, Fitch or S&P has to say?
I thought they faded into irrelevance...

Thu, 12/10/2009 - 13:44 | 159108 Terminal Frost
Terminal Frost's picture

Don't hold your breath waiting for Citi's comments on the soon to be increased US debt ceiling.

Thu, 12/10/2009 - 13:49 | 159116 sawyer
sawyer's picture

Classic ZH "none other than glass house inhabitant Citigroup".

I am tired of hearing the talking heads on CNBC saying how great Canada is doing. Our economy is in the toilet particularly our manufacturing base in Ontario and Quebec. Also our national debt levels are not so low as everyone believes if one's include the debts and obligations of the provinces ("medicare", retirements) we are in the same situation as anyone in the USA. Some links:

http://www.debtclock.ca/

http://www.iedm.org/main/content_en.php?content_id=27

Thu, 12/10/2009 - 14:25 | 159185 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Japan has a debt:GDP ratio of over 200%. They still have an AAA rating!
Also, the UK debt:GDP ratio is less at present than both Germany and the US.
I think the last sentence gives it away ("...unless we get a Conservative government with a clear majority at the next election....")
Citi are not talking finance, they are talking politics.

Thu, 12/10/2009 - 14:48 | 159233 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Too Big to Fail and Too Big to Rate.

What next?

Thu, 12/10/2009 - 15:41 | 159279 Mongo
Mongo's picture

I would like to see a vote for whether the olympics will take place at all...

Thu, 12/10/2009 - 16:16 | 159332 Gimp
Gimp's picture

Propaganda machines working overtime. I doubt few ZH readers believe any of the garbage being reported by entities with incentives behind them.

And I concur, Moody's, Fitch and the S&P reports are good for one  thing only.....now flush.

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