• Leo Kolivakis
    03/19/2010 - 17:00
    Europe faces a commercial property debt timebomb with almost €1 trillion (£896bn) outstanding from the sector and a quarter of that potentially distressed. The UK accounts for 34% of the €970bn total, with Germany second with 24%. Not to worry, global pension funds are busy snapping up properties but do they really know how long it will be before this crisis blows over? And what if it gets a lot worse before it gets better? Are pensions prepared to deal with those losses?
  • Reggie Middleton
    03/19/2010 - 10:03
    As I warned in my Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis series and amid a depression, this Eastern European government has collapsed. Western European countries (and their banks) have material claims within this country, and when combined with pressure from the PIIGS, may be the ones that set off the financial/economic contagion daisy chain. It is difficult to determine who sets it off, which is why it is best to attempt to determine the path of the contagion instead...

Citi Breaks Secondary Price, As News Of Big Fat Greek Bailout "In Broad Sense Of The Word" Skyrockets Market, Bunds Crash

Tyler Durden's picture




Citi just broke the $3.15 secondary follow-on price after, as we disclosed first, S&P stated there was no longer a guarantee that TBTFs would have perpetual government support.

And at precisely the moment when everything seemed like we were about to head into the red, here comes a rumor from Reuters that governments have decided "in the broad sense of the word" to help Greece, according to a senior German ruling coalition source. How this translates in Euro strength is unknown. How this jives with Greece's earlier statement that a call for aid would be the worst signal is also unknown. Yet look at the jump in EUR-JPY pair - the surge in the market as a result is a side-effect.

Exhibit A

Exhibit B

Exhibit C

5
Your rating: None Average: 5 (1 vote)



by E pluribus unum
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 11:51
#223378

There's no way they could get another bailout through Congress. TBTF is so 2008

by Cow
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 11:52
#223381

I heard Dubai was going to be bailed out also.  Maybe not.

by Cognitive Dissonance
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 11:54
#223383

Move along, nothing to see here, it's all just strange and wonderful coincidences. Who knows how God works, the methods he employs or what his plan is?

Blankfein won't return my calls either.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article6907681.ece

by Going Down
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 11:53
#223386

 

So...how do you spell "intervention"?

 

Neither rain nor sleet....The Fed didn't take a "Snow Day" after all.

 

 

by John McCloy
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 11:55
#223392

I have a rumor for them.

" All the king's horses and all the king's men"

by Traianus Augustus
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 11:57
#223395

tick...tick...tick...

BOOM!!!!!!!!!!!

by Selah
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:01
#223405

Don't bail them out = Boom!

Bail them out = Boom!

Boom = Gold Bitches!!!

by Hephasteus
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:12
#223425

Gold Bugs. We're like the ointment and penicillian salesmen at porn industry orgies. You're going to have fun but you gotta buy your medicine.

by asdf
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 11:57
#223396

I still believe that there won't be a bailout

 

 

Interview with German Government Economic Adviser

 

Euro Zone 'Could Cope with Greek Bankruptcy'

 

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,676157,00.html

 

Opinion from Edward Harrison

 

The Germans will not bailout Greece

 

 

 

by Cyan Lite
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 11:58
#223399

Shorts are pretty quiet here today...

by sodbuster
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:04
#223413

Too busy selling and moving sell stops up.

by Leo Kolivakis
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 11:58
#223400

OMG, first Dubai, now Greece, next???? Glad to see the sun is still shining and the world has not ended. LOL!

by Anonymous
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:03
#223409

Leo, are you happy to see your evil twin sister appointed head of the Argentine Central Bank? If American pensions are also nationalized are you in line for a corner office?

...unexpectedly...

by No More Bubbles
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 11:58
#223401

When a short squeeze ends, the results is always the same........

by John McCloy
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:09
#223422

Great example were sending to all the people.

Improverished citizens: "Um..Why should I pay my mortgage, credit card or any bills? As it turns out I actually lost some bad gambling bets, lost my job and racked up $45,000 on my card purchasing new cabinets and Shamwows.

People who want their money: Yeah but you owe it to us. We lent you that money to purchase all those items. The homes, cars, GPS, vacations and dinners out.

Improverished citizens: Well obviously you guys do not have to pay your bills. Banks make terrible choices. Heck even countries like Greece & Dubai have people counterfeit money for them to pay their debts. So whos going to pay my debts?

People who want their money: It doesn't work like that. If those entities collapse then everyone suffers. So you and everybody else have to continue to pay your bills and taxes so we can fund them

Improverished citizens: Oh I see. So if those entities collapse then everyone suffers? That is your basis. So I have to suffer so you do not? No thanks. If I print money I go to jail. If you print it you win "Man of the Year" awards.

by dark pools of soros
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:15
#223438

fiat currency needs Volcker to be its Shamwow again

by Anonymous
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:07
#223419

Such a shame we can't run this through AIG

by Anonymous
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:13
#223430

Must See
http://www.thinkbigworksmall.com/mypage/archive/1/29027

by Anonymous
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:13
#223433

Looks looks the power is back on in Reston (INX 1075.31 +18.57). Stupid snow storm.

...unexpectedly...

by Anonymous
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:15
#223439

Must See
http://www.thinkbigworksmall.com/mypage/archive/1/29027

by Racer
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:26
#223444

It is also against EU rules is it not? From a headline I saw?

 

But that matters not to the computers!

by Anonymous
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 19:37
#224278

It scarcely matters to the EU, sad to say.

by Anonymous
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:17
#223447

Well, I guess markets are upside down nowadays. Gone are the fundemental days. If goverments decide to print more and bailout more and more the currency goes up. It reminds me of last summer and fall,when companies (specially Reits)issued more stocks,their stocks shot up instead of the expected dilution....

by E pluribus unum
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:18
#223449

Today's buyers are next week's panic sellers. Count on it.

by Bruce Krasting
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:23
#223458

Screw the IPO price. The US Treasury owns 10 BILLION shares. Their cost is $3.25. Now that is a stinky long. Unfortunately "we" all own this crap.

by Anonymous
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:23
#223459

This is hilarious. Economic commentator advises stockpiling three months of food.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/02/steve-meyers-global-debt-crisis-and.html

by illyia
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:24
#223461

I sense some cynicism on this thread...

by Anonymous
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:24
#223463

To me it sounds like some EUR denominated bonds are going on sale and the spreads need to tighten. Why absorb existing debt when you can just dig deeper into the debt hole. Extend and Pretend European style. 1.Have an unnamed source say there will be a bailout. 2. Wait for the spreads to tighten. 3. Issue new bonds for the PIIGS. 4. Rinse, Repeat.

by Anonymous
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:24
#223464

Frankly,it is more fitting to the Elliot wave theory,than news driven events. We will see if that rumor is enough to break the 1080 resistance. The rally lasted for so long that I started doubting the theory,but I guess there is a time for everything. So far we are going according to Daneric's general theme...

by stedanrac
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:26
#223469

 What about Portugal, Spain et al? Can Germany back them all?

by Great Depressio...
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:29
#223481

Is it Germany or the ECB? Its most likely the ECB which will expand its balance sheet. So its not a German backing, but a Eurozone inflationary backing.

by Master Bates
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:26
#223471

The world is going to end tomorrow, so I just wanna say GOLD TO 6000 by next JUNE!  The gold bars are tungsten!  In three years, the United States will have wild dogs running the streets!  The markets will crash under US debt, like they crashed when Greece was going to get bailed out.

Instead of buying anything, just use your credit cards to buy GOLD bitchez!  Don't feed your family or find a job.  Buy gold, canned hamz, and creamed corn, along with plenty of ammo and seeds for your bomb shelter! 
If you can't buy gold, buy silver, and if you can't buy silver, buy some canned hamz.  BITCHEZ!

by Master Bates
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 14:07
#223692

Somebody has to take up being ridiculous to the point of  hyperbole now that our golden friends have tucked tail and booked it.

by Great Depressio...
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:27
#223477

National Bank of Greece up 22% (NBG).

I knew the bailout was coming. There was a very small chance that the Germans would let Greece implode. I can guarantee you that there was some vicious arguing going on behind closed doors.

Anyways, as TD said, "moral hazard has gone global". Markets will continue to rise with this much intervention and juice being pumped in. Gotta put my bull costume back on again...

by glenlloyd
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:28
#223479

I hope it's all smoke and mirrors.

by crosey
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:40
#223509

I had to laugh during the radio report as I drove out for lunch, "Dow surges on the hopes of a bailout for Greece!"

I was thinking how long it's been since I've heard of surges based on strong and sustained fundamentals.

Bizzaro world.

by JT Marlin
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:41
#223511

Get...that...dirt off you shoulder! 

 

I think a poster above me had a great point.  Dubai was on the point of collapse, and it turned out fine. Iceland's banking system collapsed, and it was ok.  America is nowhere near where those countries were.  So who cares?  Raise our debt ceiling to $1 quadrillion.  I would like to see the other countries of the world challenge us.  I would like to see China, who's currency is pegged to ours challenge us in the open market. 

Seriously, America, is the ultimate too big too fail.  We set the rules, we don't play by the rules, when America says jump, everyone asks, "How High?"  Sometimes, you just need to act as if, act as if you have a big swingin d*ck, which America does. 

by Eally Ucked
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:46
#223529

This round is finished now, be prepared for the next one, and it will be our time!

California bailout. EU will wait a moment after Califa caves in and then will bail out Portugal, States will answer with N.York, then EU with Spain, USA with Michigan and so on! It's getting exciting! Presses working overtime, and the new technology is on order.

 

by Anonymous
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:55
#223569

Iran will definitely have the bomb. Wish I had a spot in the elite's Denver airport bunker before ** hits the fan

by Anonymous
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 13:28
#223624

Anyone knows something about the Volcker Rule and PROP trading BAN??? Puff gone?

by Anonymous
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:45
#224076

The average Greek laughing and partying as they can now continue their life-style until the next bailouut. I hope Germany has a plan B and a plan M.

by Ned Zeppelin
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 19:31
#224266

So, the ECB grabs the Fed playbook and fires up the printing presses.

According to the playbook, we should go long on the European bourses immediately. It is March, 2009 all over again. The Euro will head down, and assets denominated in Euros will rise.  The only complication is figuring out where you stand when you convert back to USD, but if we're printing, and they are printing, it's kind of like falling at the same speed isn't it?

Tell me why that is not where we are headed.  And predictions of calamity are quite premature once the presses are up and running, we've learned that as well.

by Anonymous
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 20:30
#224335

Just $8b of short on the euro and the Germans are ready to bail out the whole of europe's $1.5tr plus of debt. These Neanderthals cannot even understand the Greeks and Italians are cheating their country on taxes (heh just 15k greeks declared income above 100k euro, would you beleive that? how the fuck does a country pay off $200b of debt that way, even if the whole greek government stops spending a single cent hereafter it would never be able even to pay interest on its debt, and how much are they paying Stiglitz to utter nonsense on Bloomberg non-stop for 1 week that Greece would not default? Hope he gets paid in gold, not drachma or something like lira)

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