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Citi Recommends Buying Irish CDS In Advance Of "Nightmare On Kildare Street"
Earlier today, JPMorgan made waves by claiming, some would say rather uncouthly, that Portugal's government is about to keel over and die (even if it is undisputed- after all, on Wall Street no one can hear you speak the truth). Never one to be left wanting, here comes Citi with some charts of "parabolic" moves in the Irish 2 Year bond, and some even scarier claims. As expected any research report that starts with the words: "Oh dear...The picture on Irish interest rate markets is taking a very grim turn" - well, it is clear where it is going from there. In summary, Citi now believes that Ireland is essentially done for, or as Tom Fitzpatrick ever so more diplomatically puts it "things are about to get ugly", and recommends going long CDS since the entire short end of the curve has gone parabolic, now that Europe seems set to watch the island country explode, 2s10s has inverted in the past few days, and overall the Emerald Isle is now a dead man walking in the dumbest game of chicken since the creation of the euro. Too bad neither side is willing to back out, which will ultimately end with the eventual destruction of the eurozone and the euro.
The backdrop per Citi:
Irish bank stress tests are due at th end of this month. The Government is thought to likely have a good idea of the results heading in to the EU summit later this week
Irish bank shares remain under pressure
Increasing talk in press about possible debt “haircuts”
Total opposition in Ireland to compromise on Corporate tax rate.
Total opposition in Europe to compromise on Corporate tax rate
ECB set to raise rates (Repeat of policy mistake of 2008? They raised rates on July 3rd 2008 and EURUSD began a rapid descent 2 weeks later)
80% of Irish mortgages are variable/ECB trackers NAMA has begun to sell assets
This has all the hallmarks of something that might start to get ugly. It is “obvious to a blind man” that Ireland does not have the ability to meet the present requirements (Almost certainly neither on the level of interest rates or level of debt).
In addition Europe does have a track record of “snatching defeat from the jaws of victory” How ironic if having come to an agreement on the ESM (European Stability Mechanism) that taking too hard a line with Ireland, when the cost of supporting them is so small in the overall scheme of things, together with a pre-emptive policy decision by the ECB could derail all that work in the coming weeks.
Given this back drop and given that the set up on EURUSD is similar to that seen in July 2008 (U.S. credit crisis) and again in November 2010- EURO sovereign crisis (16 months later and 16 months prior to today) as per our note of today we have to admit that we are getting increasingly nervous about this back drop.
And the promised scary charts:
The parabolic move in 2 Year bonds, aka the Nightmare on Kildare Street:
Next, the upcoming breakout move in 10 Year bonds:
The bond inversion that just took place:
and lastly, why Irish 5 yr CDS will be the next big trade pre-open tomorrow.
Those who have enjoyed the euros unprecedented spurt to unbelievable heights may soon find themselves reacquainted with reality. Then again, in bizarro world nothing is ever quite what it seems, and if China is indeed the main actor behind the scenes in an attempt to keep the CNY weak relative to the EUR, then all bets are off.
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Better off buying the ultimate protection against all this fiat craziness - gold and silver.
Just shoot the Euro currency fuck in the head and get it over with.
Default everything. Bring back sovereign currencies. Diversification of currencies is the key to global economic stability. There shall be no single reserve currency status for any nation on the planet period.
But see, that would fuck up their plan for a 1 world currency (proving that individual sovereign currencies are better) under the NWO.
There are more sinister things going on on this planet than you think.
The world needs to shift it's focus from growth of the balance sheet to maintenance of hard assets. The world has grown enough already in terms of physical assets. The new goal should be getting as close to 0% growth as possible and maintaining the the things we've already built. Dismantling the Federal Reserve Corporation and International Banking Cartel operations needs to be our immediate #1 goal. Seizing their assets for financial terrorism and crimes against humanity need to be dealt with harshly and swiftly. Liquidation of debt must be a priority. Debt must be declared the #1 enemy of the state.
Financial services employees can be re-purposed to cleaning streets and painting dilapidated structures.
The "Set of a New Night', or "New Dusk", or something like that can replace the current Sun Cult imagery they're using on us today.
Moon Rise images can be used to counter the Sun Cult, make the cultists heads explode, and bring the world back into balance.
http://www.google.com/images?hl=en&sugexp=ldymls&xhr=t&q=moon+rise+image&cp=11&qe=bW9vbiByaXNlIGltYQ&qesig=KCefrpF41Re4Af_TWprAFg&pkc=AFgZ2tk2uysL5MoZ8qDS8bPGC6yFUT-2b7iXOGfZcR2TNMFDU813XC5SHpWYGY5RJyjmgO4ApRpC5uUZgUu8D1sbdh5yJbWWMQ&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.&wrapid=tljp1300811323156012&um=1&ie=UTF-8&source=univ&sa=X&ei=S86ITcy-HcTJgQfX9vS_DQ&sqi=2&ved=0CCIQsAQ&biw=1570&bih=671
They call the operation in Libya "Odyssey Dawn". Did you know they renamed the operation in Iraq back in September operation "New Dawn"?
http://www.army.mil/-news/2010/08/31/44509-iraq-reaches-new-dawn-ends-combat-operations/
That "Dawn" word is explained by Jordan Maxwell, very intriguing.
Jordan Maxwell - The Dawn of a New Day (2009)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07REkvATHb8
how does looking at a picture of a moonrise cause physical injury?
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1300712400.php
'Another One Bites the Dust'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rY0WxgSXdEE
You can't eat Euro's
No, but I hear you can eat lead...
Which will be the other mass byproduct of all this money printing...
This euro rally has always been false. Typical FX volatility rally to fill the coffers of Wall St.
The europeans have kicked the can down the road with hastily arranged bailout after bailout.
Ominous sign that JP Morgan and Citi both had negative calls on the eurozone today.
It's a race to the bottom, Bernanke has been winning lately, but if he eases up on QE even for a second the Euros will take advantage and the dollar will surge (relative to that other failed fiat).
It only costs 10 cents to print one.
short shamrocks, long guinness.
Slainte' - I will drink to that!
Extra stout of course.
Mr. Murphy: Top o' the morning, Mrs. Clancy.
Mrs. Clancy: Top o' the morning to you Mr Murphy. and where are you rushing to this fine day? You seem upset. Come in now and have a nice cup of tea.
Mr. Murphy: No time for tea, Mrs Clancy. I need to give me banker a stress test.
Mrs. Clancy: Oh really now. Do you know more than all the ex-perps at the ECB and the Irisk government who are running stress tests on the Irisk bank.
Mr. Murphy: Tis true. I don't have the gift of stress test in me blood. But if you can keep a secret, I'm going to stress test my banker as best I can...by spitting on him.
Mrs. Clancy: Well now, I won't be keeping you. Seeing as your going into town, will you do me a favor.
Mr. Murphy: Sure, Mrs Clancy, anything for the sweetest colleen in the Emerald Isle.
Mrs. Clancy: Please spit on the banker for me...with one of those big gooey gobs I have seen you cough up when you have a mind to.
Mr. Murphy: Consider it done, Mrs Clancy. And an honor it will be to have your support for the stress test of the banker. I don't have the gift of fancy stress tests but I do have the gift of gob.
Citi wants to sell you Irish CDS. Plenty of us want to buy them, just not with Citi as a counterparty.
Well said...
Buy the fucking dip!!
(Sorry, I had too)
You could've said STDF, "Sell the dipping fuck", for a change.
How about "short and distort"?
How about a pig roast - mmmm?
I'll be damned if those spoiled western brats losing a little money now takes front page while people in Libya are losing their lives (in no small part thanks to those spoiled brats) and a part of Japan is losing its entire existence (while those spoiled brats just look on and say that everything will be alright).
I don't like what I see in the near term future that I think is in store.
Speaking of governments “about to keel over and die,” here comes the next Middle East regime change.
The details are in today's Democracy Now!’s summary - Jeremy Scahill: As Mass Uprising Threatens the Saleh Regime, a Look at the Covert U.S. War in Yemen ( video link below) :
“The crisis in Yemen is growing following high-level defections from the regime of U.S.-backed President Ali Abudullah Saleh. On Monday, a dozen top military leaders announced their pledge to protect the protest movement after 45 people were killed and some 350 were wounded when Yemeni forces opened fire on demonstrators in the capital of Sana’a on Friday—after two months of nationwide demonstrations.
“In recent years, the United States has provided hundreds of millions of dollars in military and security aid to Yemen.
“'The Obama administration has really escalated the covert war inside of Yemen and has dramatically increased the funding to Yemen’s military, particularly its elite counterterrorism unit, which is trained by U.S. Special Operations Forces,' says Democracy Now! correspondent and independent journalist Jeremy Scahill. 'It could get much worse if Ali Abdullah Saleh decides to unleash the U.S.-trained counterterrorist units on his own population.'" [includes rush transcript]
http://www.democracynow.org/2011/3/22/jeremy_scahill_as_mass_uprising_th...
Someone needs to quikcly tell Obummer that Japan has lots of muslims
Texan and I totally agree with you. Where is our suppport and help of Japan? The only acceptable answer is that Japan declined because we did such a fabulous job in Haiti.
Texan, and the Japanese need to work this one out on their own. I remember them subsidizing their chip makers to bankrupt American manufacturers.
Let them make it on their own. Or not.
I wish them all the best, but I would wish them more if they would do it without printing a truck load of new money...
fact is that the 2 yr gets a bigger return then the 10 yr so that means we're like 100% sure they'll default as everybody is dumping like crazy.
And while we look at Ireland, Portugal is next by next week and Spain is about the throw up to.
Time to go short on the euro I would say...
This shit zigzaws constantly!
And in 2 weeks they US will take centerstage again and in 4 weeks the EU again and in 6 weeks the US again and in 8 weeks the EU again and in 10 weeks the US again and in 12 weeks the EU again and in 14 weeks the US again and in 16 weeks the EU again and in 18 weeks the US again and in 20 weeks the EU again and in 22 weeks the US again...............................
Socialist nations should die. Darwin hates you.
+1 .....the West is based on 'suicide socialism', or at least our Govts are... but if you're private sector the suicide of Govt is not a problem, it's a solution to the problem ...roll on Darwinism :)
do you really understand Darwin - think not.
http://www.discovery.org/a/1092
And no one will say that the dollar might rally.
Stranger things have happened.
this is good for the irish economy. remember iceland and icesave. they let the banks go down rather than shove the bankd debt down the throats of the taxpayers. it's a good thing ultimately.
merkle has been talkign out of both sides of her mouth too, so let her & trichet step up & buy the crippled debt.
Does Iceland care?
Thought not.
O/T
Sharia! Sharia! I just met a girl named Sharia!The most beautiful sound I ever heard:
Sharia, Sharia, Sharia, Sharia . . .
All the beautiful sounds of the world in a single word . .
Sharia, Sharia, Sharia, Sharia . . .
Sharia!
I've just met a girl named Sharia,
And suddenly that name
Will never be the same
To me.
Sharia!
I've just kissed a girl named Sharia,
And suddenly I've found
How wonderful a sound
Can be!
Sharia!
Say it loud and there's music playing,
Say it soft and it's almost like praying.
Sharia,
I'll never stop saying Sharia!
The most beautiful sound I ever heard.
Sharia.
Isn't "Sharia" Arabic for "On your knees, Bitch"?
close enough, but if it were the Berspanky.....
sharia means you gotta share her!
For a while there I was thinking there might be a rational grand bargain between us and the continental priests.
A reversal of our corporate tax policey for a complete default on our external private debt obligations.
Then I grew up.
I have been saying for some time that the ECB wants to drop kick us through the BOE goalposts of debt.
I would accept this if we were given a measure of dignity such as the reinstatement of our fishing rights in Irish territorial waters and the like but its not likely especially since we have not a coast guard of sufficient size to guard such a bounty.
We were born to be serfs.
Its as simple as that.
You are welcome in the US. We do not enforce our borders.
You can stay at my house until you get on your feet.
Sincerely,
Rodent Six.
Yes Massa
Your choice. How's England treating ya?
I wasn't even gonna charge you rent. I'm starting to figure out why y'all are in the situation you are.
I could live with a Norman Overlord now - those Teutonic Knights are right bastards.
Yes, they were.
The Free Corps were just average guys who cared.
Enjoy working in the peat bogs. One, more or less, won't matter.
Good luck.
The Finns have control of our peat industry on some of the raised bogs now so even that is not a option and the EU prevents us from cutting turf on the mountain blanket bogs................. so ............... its the spuds again.
Hope there won't be a blight this time.............
The offer is open. Let me know.
I can hook you up with a local Catholic church that will help you with a fake ID.
If we are good with an invasion from Mexico, I can do no less than help the Irish.
What makes you think I am a Catholic ?
Forget I said anything.
Good luck.
The offer is closed.
Shit , I always wanted to cross the Rio Grande - it is a mental barrier of sorts for me.
Anyhow the Lee is dangerous now - unpredictable flooding and the like , must must must cross the Rubicon.
Like I said, Good Luck.
I never make an offer a third time. Not even if you were family.
I am not a bastard, Sire. German Banks? Yes. German companies? Sure. German Politicians? Absolutely. But German citizens? No. We love the Irish. We have many Irish Pubs, dance to Irish music, admire Irish literature and love to drink Guinness.
"I was born on a Dublin street where the Royal drums do beat..."
Nothing personal PY - it just sounded good off the tongue , merely Irish manure - nothing more.
Anyhow I like playing with rodents - especially gerbils on wheels.
We would love to have some Irish immigrants back in NYC. You won't hear that said about too many other peoples!
+ smartass
Headline in the not so distant future:
Ireland bond defaults are official. Bankers lose hair, cuticle and dermis.
30 days later:
Bankers with hair and short memories line up bond offerings for Leaner, Meaner, "Irish Tiger".
Change, change, change.
Change one group of bad guys for another group of bad guys.
Welcome to Great Global Conflict I.
A little prophecy coming true perhaps?
By negligence French fleet shall be attacked by five parties
Tunisia and Algeria stirred up by Iran
Leon, Seville, Barcelonia shall fall (into Muslim hands)
Italian fleet shall not fare any better
From Monaco as far as Sicily
All the coast demolished and desolate
There shall not be any more suburb, city, nor village
That the Muslim invaders shall leave undone
When the lamp burning with an inextinguishable fire,
Will be found in the temple of the Vestals,
Infant found fire, water passing through the sieve,
Nimes, Toulouse perish [in] water, the market to collapse.
(Century 9, Quatrain 9 )
This quatrain seems to be describing a nuclear power plant or nuclear missile facility. This accounts for the lamp burning with an inextinguishable fire and the water passing through the sieve. The words “infant found fire” imply some kind of mistake is made. The original temple of the Vestals is in Rome and may be the target of a missile. This quatrain also seems to allude to some kind of stock market collapse and flooding in France.
Northern wind will cause the siege to be raised,
Over the walls to throw ashes, lime chalk and dust,
Through rain afterwards, which will do them much harm,
Meanest assistance against their frontier.
Wake me when the ES hits 1000.
So tired of this chit.
(That's the chit to China)
OT:
Yamada on the dollar and the fate of fiat in the last few seconds:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=3000011594&play=1
Taylor gets busted for doing a 16 yr old.
Christ, I did that 30 yrs ago. woulda married her, too. Thank gutt I found another with bigger hooters.
I did that last night
-Jeffrey Epstein
Dick, right in the middle of me changing gutt to gott.
Well now you're fucked, that error will exist on this thread for eternity.
Now your drowned in the sea of Marmara. Remember the Hellespont, damned narrow but so exciting.
The Euro is the worst currency. It is horrible. It is better than the dollar.
Sounds like democracy : worst system apart from all others.
Time to revisit some of the counterparty risks regarding an Irish default!
I agree. I wonder if the tax payers are still solvent.
Not if you own gold it isn't.
That is, unless you're planning to short of course.
But if Ireland and Portugal go, who is going to bail the CDS underwriters this time?
Without the TARP they would have all gone under in '07, including GS.
That was the problem and still is, a monster derivatives default...
Funny how Greenspan, Summers and Bernanke did not want to regulate CDS.....I believe this instrument will cause their demise as well since CDS spikes will come to USA.
Isn't it clear? The culmination of a collapse.....
Inevitable...
Salute
Just who will the counterparties be for these CDS? When sovereign states start defaulting the cascade effect could be unstoppable. Euro banks start failing and, given their size relative to their host nations economy and the host nations own debt situation those CDS may not be worth anymore than the bonds they were written against!
Lets ask Q-daffy to bail us out. He has 350 billion free.
Gonna need a lot more than that to sort this out...
C'mon lads, default on the bastards and let the games begin. Time somebody in Europe was hung for messing with my grannies pension!
Must have been your grandpa!
eirann go broke
Front row seats to the decline of the empire. What a show it's gonna be.
I think you'll find it anti-climactic. With a wimper, and not a roar.
Mexicans like socialist slavery. Whites think they do not deserve to survive. The end is easy to predict.
I think it is whimper - not a bang - Eliot:
http://www.americanpoems.com/poets/tseliot/1076
Either the Bundundesbank is going to buy the Irish banks or they will offer a deal on the debt .25/.50. Enough to save face and keep the world spinning for another day.
Its what happens of no offers are made thats the worry because then things get interesting.
Going with keeping the world spinning and kick the can; it would seem shorting Irish CDS would be the play.
I'm morbidly interested in what the Irish will do without an deal. Grab a pint and watch the show.
guinness forever...limeys never...sauer krauts ausweis.
M.B. Drapier has a plan , unfortunately no one is listening.
The Irish central bank can create money to pay off the creditors.
We then owe the money to ourselves via the ICB.
The euro masters only tolerate such matters when their own shirt is on the line however.
Think the ICB's ELA ability is contingent on ECB approval. Since it is Irish banks that owe the ECB I doubt they will approve of ICB Euros being created to pay ECB debts.
Kenny should just get stupid drunk when he meets next with the EU leaders and tell them he's broke and what are they going to do about it! Oh, and kick Sarkozy in the nuts during the photo op.
I don't think he is much of a drinker so if he got drunk on a Euro stage it may make more of a impact then the previous incumbent.
Yes it could work , Noonen could introduce Kenny to that Jameson chap and soon he will be talking Yeats shit to our Euro masters.
Yes we can......drink , Panic in the streets of Brussels follows after the intermission.
Thats because if M.B. Drapler is right, then other Irishmen are wrong. Lord help you if you want to convince any Irishman their wrong.
How did you think they got their gift of gab; practice.
O'b is inviting brazilian she males to the celebrations...ave Caesar...Let the carnival begin.
Did Nostradamous predict the Japanese quake?
Mars, Mercury and the Moon in conjunction (occured Feb 20, 2011)towards the south there will be a great drought.
An earthquake will be reported from the depths of Asia, (uhm.....)
both Corinth and Ephesus then in a troubled state.(PIIGS defaults?)
And I dreamt of frying pans dancing to the stove - get lost.
Or even better
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0ZBaZoBCaA
Doesn't "falak pema" mean kiss my arse in Egyptian?
I thought it meant Anal Fissure. Damn, gotta bone up on the Rosetta Stone again.
ask the Sphinx. He speaks your language. As for rodents they get termited on the Nile. Then sent down the crack of Moab.
Rodents are the largest segment of mammals.
We live in your walls, and your roofs.
No rodent has ever been termited.
Bring it.
Oh they'll speak the truth, right after their positions are covered and they stand to make a killing from their "prediction".
Watching the AUDJPY time again
ireland to teh bankstas: ERIN GO FUCK YERSELVES!
rumor Irish missed coupon payment yestreday...
EUR selling, crossess down...risk aversion up.
ZH,
No links sorry
When will this all end. It is driving me crazy.
Two weeks from Thursday.
The world will go up in smoke on 4-20. No wait, that's not the smoke you are looking for.
.
Where's Nigel Farage when you need some perspective.
EURO getting thrashed tonight, Goldman must be on pins and needles with that 1.50 call
It will see 1.35, then 1.20 again before it ever sees 1.50
not too bad, so far, but i'm having the same thoughts. went to see if QE II, the person, had finalized plans to visit: Queen Elizabeth, Obama and now Bill Clinton confirm Irish visits | Irish News | IrishCentral
wtf? end of may---she will be there with clinton AND obama. lol---"It will make for an historic week for Ireland with two American presidents and the Queen of England in town, which in turn will create a major security operation."
clinton is gonna be speaking about irish suicides. i don't about obama. perhaps he will be getting an award for biggest spender in the history of the planet...
i feel like a child waiting for christmas. the end of may? mom sez just keep counting black swans, and it'll be here b4 i know it!
Nightmare on Kildare st, indeed.
Citi should easily recognise bankrupt entity.
Does Citi have no shame? Er, never mind....
Citi's buyside trading desk thanks the "pr"opaganda sell side analyst lol.
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It's like waiting for the collapse of the Soviet Union. It's not a question of 'if', but just 'when'. Just hope it doen't take as long.
And at a time when Ireland either looks to be leaving the Euro or getting kicked out, Her Maj is planning a first state visit to Ireland in 100 years:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1367354/Will-Ireland-return-Royal-fold.html
The article raises the possibility of Ireland rejoining The Commonwealth,what the article doesn't say is that Ireland may be offered some sort of deal to re-introduce sterling,or a sterling link to a new currency as a possible replacement for the Euro.Might just be totally way off the mark here,but the the combination of the state visit and the Irish financial crisis just appear to be too much of a coincidence in my book.
There has to be some reason for this visit,considering the last visit was a hundred years ago and the conflicts in that time,combined with the hundreds of years of bad blood between the two countries it just makes you ask -why?