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Citi On "Unusual Risk" From A Weaker Than Expected ADP And/Or ISM

Tyler Durden's picture


ADP today (8:15AM) , followed by services ISM (10AM) carry unusual risk for markets today. In particular a downside surprise may be more broadly risk-off than has been the case recently on negative economic surprises.
Positioning remains long risky assets and risk correlated currencies but there are growing concerns about pressures on oil and other commodities. ADP has been resuscitated as a payrolls indicators so there will be some reaction to a big surprise. Market expectations are very concentrated at 200k -- with modest downside extension to 180k and upside to 220k. Our economic surprise index for G10 is diving sharply and our economists are on the soft side as far as payrolls go.
Net, net we think the downside risk outweighs the upside and that a downside surprise today is more risk off than normal.
ISM carries similar risks. Median is at 57.5 with heavy concentration in 56- 58.5 range. Typically a 2-point surprise is needed to move the market and our economist'  forecast art 56 is very much at low end of central tendency.
Most at risk are long positions in AUD, NOK, and SEK but other risk correlated positions are similarly vulnerable. You do not have to like the USD in the long-term to see a risk of a correction.
From Citi's Stephan Englander


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Wed, 05/04/2011 - 08:14 | 1237420 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Bring it down!

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 08:35 | 1237465 LMAO
LMAO's picture

Thank you Shitty for some useless info.


Most at risk are long positions in AUD, NOK, and SEK but other risk . . . .

Technical bounce in the Dollar based on.......?

Yeah, we are all wondering when and if QE is coming to an end.




Edit: In the meantime it looks like the market continues to price in both QE 3 and QE 4


Wed, 05/04/2011 - 09:00 | 1237594 lbrecken
lbrecken's picture

so much for risk off............

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 09:14 | 1237625 Kina
Kina's picture

Most at risk are long positions in AUD, NOK, and SEK


Seems others are assuming it is another reason for money printing... USD down.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 09:31 | 1237687 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

It's all bullshit posturing before setting up things up for the banksters favorite chairsatan they put in place. Last week this would have been bullish for pm's and the market-- now they're trying to say it's risk off all of a sudden? What a joke.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:01 | 1237812 Royal Wulff
Royal Wulff's picture

Who started this "risk-on" "risk-off" terminology? It's cumbersome and ugly.


Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:08 | 1237835 Law97
Law97's picture

Typically a 2-point surprise is needed to move the market.

Now let's see what a 5-point downside surprise plus a worse than expected ADM number does to the market today.   

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:19 | 1238307 JimBobOMG
JimBobOMG's picture

What is ADP/ISM?

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