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Or in corporate tradese, ease off the Charlie
Goldman Sachs' head of global trends, John Obvious, warns:
"In the evenings there is a heightened risk of gradually increasing darkness."
Kudos to GS, I've been pointing this out for years now, but nobody would listen !
Darn, I feel marginalized.
Maybe people no longer look at the likes of NOK and SEK as risk currencies. Maybe they see the strength of these economies, and the high quality of their debt and compare it to the likes of USD and EUR and think it's safer there....
The salad days are apparently over.
I agree with the article, but believe that Englander ignores the influence of hype. All along, the market has ignored the failure of stimulus to stimulate any part of our economy other than equities and commodities. Any additional stimulus will similarly fail to aid the economy, but I don't see any reason for it to not ramp equities based on hype.
That being said, I have to agree that stimulus this time may be more limited, more stealthy (therefore dampening the hype effect) and less likely to be joined in by our counterparts overseas. However, Bernanke has no other option than stimulate, the debt is too large to tighten.
Bernanke has to play for time, but that game is delivering diminishing returns.
substantially lower their bonus expectations
Main street would be well advised to do the same. Interesting stats on Gallop - says 63% polled believe the economy is getting worse, but 47% believe their standard of living is getting better. Enough said.
I like pessimistic: it holds a ring of truth these days, no matter where you look to or from. I have set my own path, which may or may not be the right one: but I can live with the outcomes, regardless of how bad it gets (I don't worry about the up side: only black holes can hurt me now - I think?)! I may have over-cooked as I am set for Fiat to collapse (or at best rebase to zero + more promises = not much): which has destroyed my income potential and locked my capital up because I suspect I 'peaked' too early.
Reading commentary of this nature gives me a warmer feeling about my 'early exit' from life as we know it (Jim): until I think of relatives who are still doing what they have always done! Only a couple of weeks ago a relative of mine proudly told me he has put his entire diversified portfolio with an adviser that is now consolidating all into a single mutual fund "that is guaranteed to out-perform the market"! Commission for adviser = 3% (face value): guarantee = worthless (face value).
I pointed to the obvious and was basically told to 'F off': that is the problem with 'main street' and 'Joe Sixpack' plus the most loved "Mom & Pop": they will trust the 'old way' more than common sense. Doctors never make mistakes, bankers never cheat, politicians never lie!
We need salesmen of sense to be as good as salesmen of BS: then the world has a chance. These rather technical briefs are OK for me, but totally wrong for the people that need to know: real people that are being hurt now by the same people that hurt them in 2007, 1998-2001, 1994, 1987, 1970's and beyond: marketeers dressed as financial advisers!
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