Citi's Flash Preview Of NFP

Tyler Durden's picture

From Citi's Andrew Cox:

US payrolls: Weather impact still a USD issue

Citi's economics team is forecasting +250k for Friday's NFP release, well above the median estimate of +190k. The distribution of estimates has a substantial right tail and we expect that many forecasters are erring on the side of caution.  Of the 83 forecasters, 72 lie between 150k and 230k, with the other 11 stretching from 235k to 295k.

The problem is that a weak number is a much clearer indication than a strong number. A significant negative surprise is likely to be very USD negative as it can not be explained away by the weather and clearly shows that the recent disappointments were not aberrations. 

The impact of a positive surprise (say our economists' 250k forecast)  is not clear given that the most commonly cited explanation for the recent string of NFP disappointments was the poor winter weather. A positive surprise may be quickly dismissed as a simple rebound from previous months. That said, if the release is accompanied by significant upward revisions to the previous months, the ambiguity would be removed. In the event of a positive surprise, we think that investors will be quicker to trade USDJPY than EURUSD. USDJPY is sensitive to rate expectations; EURUSD is ambiguous on good news.

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FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

It's all lies, who cares anymore, seriously.

Any bad news is spun into good news, or it is forgotten about 1 day later. Any good news is repeated over and over on the control news networks and drowns out any bad news.

It's all "Alice in Wonderland", who gives a s**t.

Racer's picture

Yes, it is all a rigged casino out to rob all the punters. Get involved if you want to lose your shirt

scratch_and_sniff's picture

why is it that this time every month i suddenly need to poo?

101 years and counting's picture

i'm thinking a blowout number after all the hawkish comments. 

Bleeping Fed's picture

Bad number=QE3

Good number=QT=another recession=QE3

augie's picture




for the bazillionth 1984 reference on this site.

hugovanderbubble's picture

Citi...too much optimism....after 10....Sell

Hedge Jobs's picture

always an exciting time of the month, to see how many jobs the FED can buy for $100 bill in freshly printed and soon to be worthless USD. the average the last few months works out at about $500K per job.

Hubbs's picture

All these numbers, CNBC babble is now as amusing and pathetic as the weight loss/ exercise late night infomercials claims.

augie's picture

at this point, wouldn't it have made more sense to just give the 2.whatever trillion dollars to anyone under a certain income bracket? I mean 300 million Americans, half of us pay taxes and what 2/3 make under 100k so 100,000 divided into 2 trillion, thats got to be enough to keep consumerism running right? I mean tell me if i'm wrong I don't have a degree or anything just an internet connection and a library card.