Citi's Steven Englander On Black Swan Fatigue, And Why It Is Time To Hedge Tail Risk Again

Tyler Durden's picture

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
rubearish10's picture

Yes and once you've committed to tail risk management, you cannot and likely should not stop, until your investment thesis/activity has ended. This should be done no matter what the cost, as long as you don't go broke doing it, harr harr.

kaiserhoff's picture

Good point, and it does cost, but put spreads are fer cheap if you do your homework.  They also help you sleep at night;)

rubearish10's picture

HR, very important, no doubt. Time is major factor. Big first mistake is to not buy enough (time). In other words, roll forward deep, barbell and participate in upside with whatever "carry asset" you prefer etc....Been sleeping well lately, thanks.

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

The Fed has a hammer and everything looks like a nail to them... the one trick pony will continue to print even if it solves nothing.

Scottj88's picture

Its all rigged...

We have treasonous bankers running our system...

Oil, Silver, Gold all going to be rising and especially food prices.  America will be like all other countries, and we will revolt... not by choice but by neccessity.

ZeroPower's picture

i.e. Hedge your long CHF long CAD and...even, gasp, long EUR positions.

Misean's picture

It's taking longer for the banksters to get the rube's watching them play 3 card monty to ante up.

dick cheneys ghost's picture

US ask Saudi's to arm Libya's Guerrillas......



and congrats to Zero Hedge on time mags list on best financial blogs..,29569,2057116,00.html

Arch Duke Ferdinand's picture

""US ask Saudi's to arm Libya's Guerrillas......"'


Single best way to win a revolution?

...Starve the Government...

Henry Chinaski's picture

It is impossible to starve government if the FED exists to print money an buy debt.  That's why the goverment will never willingly return to a gold standard.  If people had to pay for government out of pocket, things would be different.

sschu's picture

If people had to pay for government out of pocket, things would be different.

This is so true.  While we rail against the Fed, and deservedly so, it is likewise the Federal Government that deserves our wrath and focus.  The Fed and the government are mutual addicts and enablers, each feeding the other's habit.  They are co-dependents and must simultaneously be brought under control. 

They will fight to their destruction before giving up, the battle is not even begun. 


Snidley Whipsnae's picture

I second the congrats to Zero Hedge for all their fine reporting. If not for them and a very, very few other sites we would all be dancing in the dark. Hat tip!

kaiserhoff's picture

Well said, and not an easy pace.  None of us has complained about a slow news day in a coon's age.  No offence, Rocky.  We all know you are a spring chicken at heart.

IQ 145's picture

 An environment in which hedging the black swan type future has become unpopular, is exactly the environment in which you want to be spending money on cheap Puts.

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Compliments of Jesse...

"The weakness with this US Dollar DX index is that it is highly weighted to the developed economies of Europe and Japan. As such it may not reflect erosion of dollar purchasing power vis a vis the BRICs, and external measures such as gold, oil, and silver. It may be masked by the mutual weakness of central banks all inflating their currencies in unison."


"Rather than rallies through economic vitality and recovery, the dollar rallies have been marked by relative declines primarily in the euro on their sovereign debt problems. It is almost like a couple of drunks leaning on each other for support, except that the US is picking the Eurozone's pockets while they do it."

Remainder of comments here...

Sokhmate's picture

"Black Swan Fatigue" LOL. ZHers should seriously consider creating a 'ZH' terms dictionary.

Anaxagoras's picture

Tonight's Movie:

Dr. StrangeBen, or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Inflation

buzzard beak's picture

Look out for my upcoming book, "Black Crow: The Mystification of the Thoroughly Mundane"


KickIce's picture

Black Swan morphs into dying duck.

rd's picture

Occam's razor: Moral Hazard! Thank you Mr BB.

lsjcma's picture

To wear the mermaid wedding dresses could be called the dream of every woman. I think whoever you are, to get married with the man your love is a holy thing. And we all firmly believe that marriage will not kill your love, on the contrary, wedding dress is just the beginning. So the bridesmaid Dresses chooses the wedding dresses carefully. Naturally, they want to become the most beautiful bridesmaid dresses and the unique sheath wedding dresses. The dresses in our online column wedding dresses store are their best choices.

Grand Supercycle's picture

Despite market intervention/QE - natural market forces can not be stopped – only delayed.

When the market does reassert control – the reaction (the overdue correction) may be even more extreme due to that delay.

And some may erroneously refer to this as a Black Swan since it’s ‘unexpected’.

However they will be wrong because major market events can be predicted by some analysts.

trendybull459's picture

We need your help,come to us and make your voting:

tell it to friend,we need to rich every interesting one to make his vote for FED existence