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Civilians Not In Labor Force Hits All Time Record

Tyler Durden's picture




 

At what point can one call the chart below parabolic? What can we say but BTFD, if you see one.

And just in case we are accussed of distorting demographic data, here is the same chart indexed at 100% compared to the change in the total population. Demographic crunch anyone?

 

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Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:20 | 1018245 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Nearly 500,000 people were added to the SNAP/Food Stamp rolls in December of 2010:

http://frac.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/snapdata2010_december.pdf

Depression?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:50 | 1018374 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

http://i51.tinypic.com/1h9zio.png

Chart I did using BLS data combining total full time wage and salary workers * average weekly earnings.  CPI adjusted to 1982-1984 chained dollars.  From the 2007 peak, the total basket of people in full-time jobs are making exactly $100 billion dollars less, in real terms, than in 2007.  They are making $20 billion less than last year.

http://manifestdeconstruction.blogspot.com/2011/03/full-time-workers-were-100-billion.html

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:38 | 1018627 Haywood Jablowme
Haywood Jablowme's picture

Depression?

One for the mutha fuckin' ages...

 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:20 | 1018247 Racer
Racer's picture

And it cost how much to achieve that?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:42 | 1018341 Duuude
Duuude's picture

Ask tha JPMorgue...

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:20 | 1018248 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Thank God the Viagra is working.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:30 | 1018305 toto
toto's picture

God brings the children.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:24 | 1018250 HamyWanger
HamyWanger's picture

Yesterday, we opened two consumer discretionary stores (home decor) in Detroit, MI, and are hiring 7 sellers. The city's economy is bouncing incredibly fast, and we already make more than we do in San Francisco or NYC.

If you want jobs and wealth, move to Detroit. This is the new place to be, believe me.

On a larger scale, it is obvious the global economic recovery is accerelating at a very fast pace. The drop in unemployment (8.9%) proves that silverbug libertarian permadoomers were wrong.

 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:27 | 1018287 Ben Probanke
Ben Probanke's picture

Kool Aid stores?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:26 | 1018288 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

good one hamy. all boats will be lifted in the rising tide: guns, ammo, night vision goggles. plus, detroit as i understand it has a very motivated, entrepeneural, educated work force coupled with excellent leadership from jail ... i mean city hall.

keep us apprised on the weekly comps of the new stores.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:33 | 1018307 financeguru500
financeguru500's picture

Are your stores temporary setups?

I heard that the only money in Detroit is coming from the City paying people to live there. Last I heard it was $150k to police willing to move to detroit and buy a house.

That must be where your profits are. Or is there a new recycling center down there street where people cash in on beer bottles and tin cans and then come to your store?

 

Oh and did you say "Yesterday" you opened your store and you are already gauging first day sales as what you expect the permenent outcome to be? You must be drinking the same koolaid the bls is drinking because your numbers don't seem right.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:38 | 1018327 HamyWanger
HamyWanger's picture

It is true that we make most of our profits selling to welfare moms, and we had to install our own diesel power generator (electricity has been shut down in some areas of the city for 2 years), but Detroit is still the place to be if you want to make money. 

Government money is the same as private money. And it is currently flowing, feeding the city economic recovery and jobs creation. 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:42 | 1018338 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

that's right hamy. i like your creativity and entrepenueral spirit. jpm saw the light. as reported this week those fine folks make $5 billion net per year servicing the welfare stamp system.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:43 | 1018342 HamyWanger
HamyWanger's picture

Exactly. One penny is a penny, I don't care about its origins. 

There's currently a lot of money to be made with government cheese. 

But it does not eliminate the fact that there is an incredible recovery in the private sector too. 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:05 | 1018452 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

OK Hamy - I will bite with a comment here.

I agree with you that a buck is a buck, but question is for how long? You say you are hiring 7 sellers. Good for you and for them. You don't have to answer this, but what can an average seller make per year? (Lets take hourly/commission rate X 2080 hours per year.) Is this enough to feed a family, make major purchases and get a mortgage in Detroit?

 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:18 | 1018505 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

exactly. one can see the recovery in the data. chevy volt sales were particularly impressive. as was gm's pipeline sales of all units. tax receipts are doing nicely. monster job listings impress. and the 14,000 new homes sold all across the usa was insane bullish. one could go on and on. no wonder you're expanding.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:53 | 1018715 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

Love the sarcasm and engineering mindset lieutenantjohnchard.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:12 | 1018831 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

keep in mind hamy is serving us delicious parody and comedy of harry wanger.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:34 | 1018957 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

19,000 - and not 14,000 - new homes were sold across the entire USA last month, damnit.

Get your less depressing but still depressionary level numbers right!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:55 | 1019067 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

hat tip to ya tis. either my eyes, brain or both played tricks on me.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:09 | 1019150 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Minor point, LT. It was all in jest.

I remember in 2006 when the figure for new home sales on a monthly basis was hitting 200,000, so look at how far we've fallen.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:48 | 1019343 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

i know you were jesting tis. the country has taken a big fall in many ways, and the figures are startling when you step back and analyze them.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:25 | 1018542 Mercury
Mercury's picture

And yet from your description it sounds like you're in Zimbabwe.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 12:27 | 1021885 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

So... you're a carpetbagger? Your hand is in taxpayers' pockets?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:39 | 1018315 drom
drom's picture

Silverbugs were wrong? Lets see I bought at $12   a couple years ago and now its at $34.  I don't know of anyone that has been more right.  Also with all this massive stimulus we should have much more robust job growth rather than the 250k over the past 2 months which barely keeps up with labor force growth, maybe.  Looking forward to see what happens when the morphine is gone, if it ever is.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:02 | 1018437 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

I bought the "Spike" @ $12 an ounce as well. My wife thought I had lost my mind by cleaning out the (fiat money) retirement accounts and buying mostly Silver and some Gold. My son started wondering if he was going to work to support himself and his "crazy" Father and poor Mother. Now both think I'm some sort of crazy financial genius.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:01 | 1018758 Monday1929
Monday1929's picture

Thatis often the time to take at least partial profits, at least in my experience.

The triumphal feeling is a good sell signal.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:06 | 1018793 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

No, the good sell signal is when everybody around you buys silver, and CNN begins to suggest buying it.

It has already happened for stocks (401ks) and real estate (the grandmothers were flipping condos). And it was the signal to sell. 

The Germans who sold their gold after an incredible 5,000% profit in 1922 lost everything just like the rest of the population, because it was going to skyrocket further... you know the rest of the story, I suppose.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 15:04 | 1019719 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

They didn't see the sell signal for Marks.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:45 | 1018346 Chuck Norris
Chuck Norris's picture

By "consumer discretionary" do you mean hydroponics and "grow your own weed" products?  I live in the sh|%hole and that's the only stuff I see taking off in Detroit (metro).

 

Maybe it is my "normalcy bias"?  I could have been here too freaking long....

 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 20:23 | 1020995 long-shorty
long-shorty's picture

dude, Hamy. That was awesome. I laughed out loud. I can't believe they junked you 22 times. Some people on this site have no sense of humor.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 00:05 | 1021401 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Hamy, you da man.   Don't forget it.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:20 | 1018253 Jason T
Jason T's picture

exponential growth.. will always have a doubling time.

system is braking down faster and faster.  

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:22 | 1018260 Twindrives
Twindrives's picture

We're Fooked!!!   Thanks to the dynamic dumb asses Obama and Bernanke.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:23 | 1018267 Dexter Morgan
Dexter Morgan's picture

haha  Who needs to make anything when you can print money?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:14 | 1018498 Zedge Hero
Zedge Hero's picture

Who needs to print when we can just type and transfer?  Probably about as much work as it took me to type this.  Why waste the ink and paper?  Benny will just say it and PUFF it's there.  Greatest magic bullshit ever.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:25 | 1018276 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

I've been listening to Professor Michael Hudson on YOUTUBE lately.    According to Dr. Michael Hudson, the government wants a depression, they want to reduce the economy by 20% .    That doesn't sound good to me !!  Pay labor less & make the ecomy more competitive is great for WALL St !      unfortunately, the rest of us cannot afford to live .

WHY GOVERNMENT IS MORE AFRAID OF DEBT THAN DEPRESSION :        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3DsmGvVqiw

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:55 | 1018388 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

Depends of what government you talk about. Answer: corporate government.

 

USA, Inc. Bitchez! Everyone is owned!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QkfMuvVuETQ&feature=player_embedded

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:56 | 1018396 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

Global class action anybody?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 15:07 | 1019728 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Actually, the economy wants a depression. Kinda like gravity wants the coyote to fall. The government just wants more power.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 16:00 | 1019963 nufio
nufio's picture

actually i dont think its a bad deal. labour is overpaid in US compared to the rest of the world.

one hour of waitressing does not give you 2 gallons of gas in other parts of the world.

to maintain equilibrium this will have to go down. Most of the population here seem to maintain a mindset seen in the old colonial powers where they think that their labour is worth much more than in their colonies while in reality its not.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:24 | 1018280 victor82
victor82's picture

"Wealth? We don't need no stinkin' wealth?"

"We got fiat!"

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:25 | 1018283 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

looks bullish:-(

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:30 | 1018299 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Just goes on an on, until it stops.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:30 | 1018301 iinthesky
iinthesky's picture

I propose from here on out that everyone who posts anything on ZH and all people who comment on posts stop saying 'dollar' when referring to Federal Reserve Notes. Maybe we can start dispelling some illusions around here.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:05 | 1018443 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

FRN?

1.) Its not Federal!

2.) There are NO reserves - Look at the shit on their balance sheet!

3.) And its not a note - A note is a promise to pay and all I can redeem this piece of paper for is another piece of paper!

Additionally for a note to be valid it must be signed by the issuing party. There is no signature of anyone from the Federal reserve on this piece of paper.

So its defunct from the begining.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:25 | 1018553 Zedge Hero
Zedge Hero's picture

Follar?

Bendollar?

Bendover?

Fediat note?

Fidiot note?

 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:03 | 1018776 Monday1929
Monday1929's picture

Crapollar?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:26 | 1018904 Nate Taggart
Nate Taggart's picture

Kindling?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:27 | 1019228 bigkahuna
bigkahuna's picture

ponzollar

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:31 | 1018303 ivana
ivana's picture

keyword = civilians

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:42 | 1018337 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Bingo ivana, was wondering who would pick that. I'm sure the Armed Forces have been having a really easy time recruiting now.
Which seems to be one of the reasons this crash has been brought about in the first place. As long as the forces are willing to drop their standards, repeal DADT and have a generation grown up on gaming violence ready for the real thing, all is swell.
Don't even need the draft anymore. Yet another volunteer army ready to do the bankster's killing for them.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/03/03/straykitty-wrote-in-after-a-w...

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:11 | 1018477 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Not sense Obama eliminated Don't ask-Don't tell. No one wants the harassment open homosexuality brings to the table. The media will not report the drastic drop in recruitment or the near 100% failure reenlistment rate. Recruiting offices are moving to shut down all but one or two offices per state. Now they call you and send you a Bus ticket to go to a centralized recruitment office.

Expect a reenstatment of the military draft in one of two years.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 00:07 | 1021404 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Draft?   You are obviously not a child of the 60s.   I was there and if you want to see rioting in the streets -- reinstate a draft.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:59 | 1018419 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

civilians not in labor = toxic assets. Who whants them? </sarc>

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:39 | 1018323 drom
drom's picture

Serious question, I'm kinda new here.  When everyone says BTFD are we referring precious metals and and/or oil, or something else?

 

 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:41 | 1018335 toto
toto's picture

Human labor i guess.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:44 | 1018349 fuu
fuu's picture

Stop thinking so hard and just BTFD. All TFDs you can find in anything.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:14 | 1018490 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Buy The *ucking Dip

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 15:12 | 1019751 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

I'll have some mercy...they're referring to the xtranormal videos where one character (a blinkered stock trader) tells the other one (the one who can't believe the gravity-defying stock market can be sustained) to buy the fucking dip.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:40 | 1018331 Shocker
Shocker's picture

Well this explains the reason for drop in unemployment numbers haha

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:39 | 1018332 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture
Fed Policy Makers Signal Abrupt End to Bond Purchases in June

Alleged 'green shoots' have killed QE3.

 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:43 | 1018343 financeguru500
financeguru500's picture

This is probably the worst news I have yet to read on ZH.

This means that the dollar will collapse. The Fed was the last purchaser of Treasuries to prevent failed sales.

The only question now is if the dollar will collapse immediately or starting in June.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:18 | 1018508 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

20% yields are the 30 year?

It happened 30 years ago.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:41 | 1018339 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Time to go long Soylent Green....

Refining margins look to expand

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:22 | 1018525 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

As tongue in cheek as your comment sounds , cannibalism will be the must have trend of the century once the penny drops to the masses that Ben cant print calories or BTUs.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:32 | 1018596 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

 Very firmly planted in the cheek...

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:48 | 1018692 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

I have to ask about the shield- was Opa in the Frundsberg?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:55 | 1018732 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Sorry, I don't follow the question? Who or what was Opa?

Flakmeister is/was my operational level war gaming online ID, I picked the Frundsberg insignia for obvious reasons...

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:39 | 1018980 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

Opa is colloquial German for Grandpa, thought you were German becasue of the insignia.

My error.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:42 | 1018998 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Not a problem... my German is pretty weak...

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:00 | 1019104 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

Well heck, if the all-Americans can do it as a half breed Amerikraut Im hoisting my own Opa's insignia.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:10 | 1019137 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

 17th SS panzergrenadier?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:11 | 1019157 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

Yep. I wish I thought of this sooner, its even more politically incorrect then the Stars and Bars I was flying in honor of the other half of my family tree.

 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:15 | 1019177 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  Helluva unit...gave a good account of themselves in the Bocage. Also a very good record on other matters...

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 15:15 | 1019761 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Hm, that might be a good one for me to use too...what with being 'faustian' and all...

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:45 | 1018350 toto
toto's picture

All that matter are going for a new record.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:27 | 1018557 -273
-273's picture

Yo, how about adding an 'All Time Record' category? would be interesting to be able to click it to look back and see them all being broken every month/week/day/hour.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:33 | 1018599 max2205
max2205's picture

Many of those are people who said f'uck it and don't want to pay taxes or work bullshit jobs....riders on the storm

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:35 | 1018611 nedwardkelly
nedwardkelly's picture

I'm not sure if I had enough (or too much) coffee this morning, but the second chart isn't clear...

Is it showing that the percentage of the total population not in the labor force has remained relatively consistent? As in, from the start of the graph to teh end of the graph the population has increased by 40% and the total number of civilians not in the labor force has also increased by 40%?

Then in the last couple of years the percentage of total population not in the labor force has increased a little more rapidly?

 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 15:19 | 1019786 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

That's the way I see it too. The next obvious step for pedants like me would be to show a per-capita chart, with the population line leveled out.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:55 | 1018728 Obaminator
Obaminator's picture

BTFD Bitchez!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 16:01 | 1018816 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

"At what point can one call the chart below parabolic?"

That depends, if it was plotting a precious metal it would have been dubbed that long ago by mainstream financial analists.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:31 | 1019566 zebra
zebra's picture

with mkt goes up everyday on POMO, who needs to work?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 17:00 | 1020212 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

A long, long time ago...
I can still remember
How that music used to make me smile.
And I knew if I had my chance
That I could make those people dance
And, maybe, they’d be happy for a while.

But february made me shiver
With every paper I’d deliver.
Bad news on the doorstep;
I couldn’t take one more step.

I can’t remember if I cried
When I read about his widowed bride,
But something touched me deep inside
The day the music died.

So bye-bye, miss american pie.
Drove my chevy to the levee,
But the levee was dry.
And them good old boys were drinkin’ whiskey and rye
Singin’, "this’ll be the day that I die.
"this’ll be the day that I die."

Did you write the book of love,
And do you have faith in God above,
If the Bible tells you so?
Do you believe in rock ’n roll,
Can music save your mortal soul,
And can you teach me how to dance real slow?

Well, I know that you’re in love with him
`cause I saw you dancin’ in the gym.
You both kicked off your shoes.
Man, I dig those rhythm and blues.

I was a lonely teenage broncin’ buck
With a pink carnation and a pickup truck,
But I knew I was out of luck
The day the music died.

I started singin’,
"bye-bye, miss american pie."
Drove my chevy to the levee,
But the levee was dry.
Them good old boys were drinkin’ whiskey and rye
And singin’, "this’ll be the day that I die.
"this’ll be the day that I die."

Now for ten years we’ve been on our own
And moss grows fat on a rollin’ stone,
But that’s not how it used to be.
When the jester sang for the king and queen,
In a coat he borrowed from james dean
And a voice that came from you and me,

Oh, and while the king was looking down,
The jester stole his thorny crown.
The courtroom was adjourned;
No verdict was returned.
And while lennon read a book of marx,
The quartet practiced in the park,
And we sang dirges in the dark
The day the music died.

We were singing,
"bye-bye, miss american pie."
Drove my chevy to the levee,
But the levee was dry.
Them good old boys were drinkin’ whiskey and rye
And singin’, "this’ll be the day that I die.
"this’ll be the day that I die."

Helter skelter in a summer swelter.
The birds flew off with a fallout shelter,
Eight miles high and falling fast.
It landed foul on the grass.
The players tried for a forward pass,
With the jester on the sidelines in a cast.

Now the half-time air was sweet perfume
While the sergeants played a marching tune.
We all got up to dance,
Oh, but we never got the chance!
`cause the players tried to take the field;
The marching band refused to yield.
Do you recall what was revealed
The day the music died?

We started singing,
"bye-bye, miss american pie."
Drove my chevy to the levee,
But the levee was dry.
Them good old boys were drinkin’ whiskey and rye
And singin’, "this’ll be the day that I die.
"this’ll be the day that I die."

Oh, and there we were all in one place,
A generation lost in space
With no time left to start again.
So come on: jack be nimble, jack be quick!
Jack flash sat on a candlestick
Cause fire is the devil’s only friend.

Oh, and as I watched him on the stage
My hands were clenched in fists of rage.
No angel born in hell
Could break that satan’s spell.
And as the flames climbed high into the night
To light the sacrificial rite,
I saw satan laughing with delight
The day the music died

He was singing,
"bye-bye, miss american pie."
Drove my chevy to the levee,
But the levee was dry.
Them good old boys were drinkin’ whiskey and rye
And singin’, "this’ll be the day that I die.
"this’ll be the day that I die."

I met a girl who sang the blues
And I asked her for some happy news,
But she just smiled and turned away.
I went down to the sacred store
Where I’d heard the music years before,
But the man there said the music wouldn’t play.

And in the streets: the children screamed,
The lovers cried, and the poets dreamed.
But not a word was spoken;
The church bells all were broken.
And the three men I admire most:
The father, son, and the holy ghost,
They caught the last train for the coast
The day the music died.

And they were singing,
"bye-bye, miss american pie."
Drove my chevy to the levee,
But the levee was dry.
And them good old boys were drinkin’ whiskey and rye
Singin’, "this’ll be the day that I die.
"this’ll be the day that I die."

They were singing,
"bye-bye, miss american pie."
Drove my chevy to the levee,
But the levee was dry.
Them good old boys were drinkin’ whiskey and rye
Singin’, "this’ll be the day that I die."

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 20:40 | 1028066 lsjcma
lsjcma's picture

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