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Claims Print Above 400K For 13th Consecutive Week, At 418K, In Line With 420K Expectations

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Well the BLS reported Initial Claims that came above 400K for the 13th consecutive week, printing at 418K, in line with expectations of 420K (and a miss as this number will be revised to 420K or higher next week). Continuing claims came at 3,681K on expectations of 3,700K, with the prior number revised higher from 3,702K to 3,724K. As predicted last week "Both numbers this week will be revised higher next week, which will bring the rolling average far higher." In other words, post revision, today's claims data will have been a miss. Which then begs the question, considering the far better ADP number, whether employers have taken a cue from HFT machines and are now hiring and firing workers at an unseen before pace. In other news, those on EUC and Extended benefits both dropped by over 44K in the week ended June 18.

Full report here.

 

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Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:38 | 1432024 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Wow.  90 SnP handles in 10 days.  

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:03 | 1432087 fuu
fuu's picture
99 weeks ago today was  08/13/2009
Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:40 | 1432028 urbanelf
urbanelf's picture

Transitory, bitchez!

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:36 | 1432060 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

N=1

I fired someone two weeks ago, with clear cause, yet the unemployment commission approved her claim, without hearing any testimony on our part.  We are appealing, and should win, which should then subtract 1 in the inevitable BLS revision. 

 

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 12:22 | 1432896 trav7777
trav7777's picture

was she black?  If so then YOU RAYCISS

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:40 | 1432029 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

400k+ for 13 weeks in a row, yet ADP somehow manages +157k today.  Me confused.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:45 | 1432043 Dreadker
Dreadker's picture

My guess is that because they don't correlate the who got hired/fired numbers then they can say whatever number they want... theres no visibility of if 157k got laid off but 157k got hired... and it doesn't take into account how many just said 'f*ck it - i'm done looking for work and claiming benefits' - we can thank Clinton for that one

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:55 | 1432058 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

So the ADP number is not a net number?  It's purely hiring?

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:18 | 1432142 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It's a rabbit pulled out of a hat.

"Hey Rocky, watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat. Nothing up my sleeve. Presto! Whoops, wrong hat."

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:29 | 1432172 fuu
fuu's picture

I like that it is a bear.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 11:23 | 1432596 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I had several to select from, but knew instantly that the Bear was the one. :)

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 12:23 | 1432899 trav7777
trav7777's picture

at some point the numbers getting laid off will match the numbers of those dropping off the back end and we will be "pegged"

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:42 | 1432034 youALREADYknow
youALREADYknow's picture

I wonder what the breakdown of public vs private unemployment has been for the past few months. I'm guessing that most of the unemployment increase has come from public sector layoffs.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:42 | 1432035 Dreadker
Dreadker's picture

I'd go with hiring then firing... the company i work for fired 4 people last week then hired 3 to replace them.... turnover here has been accelerating and we're in that 'small business' window of 50-499 employees...

 

Not gonna matter much after august 2nd though... I noticed that Timmah has been caught trying to come up with a way to avoid default if congress doesn't allow debt ceiling rise... I'm guessing that will involve not paying the military, social security, veterans etc.  

 

I swear thats what happened in Rome... they stopped paying the military so they entered Rome and killed caeser... ;-)

 

http://static.thenewsrant.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/government-shut...

 

lol

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:56 | 1432061 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yes Geithner searching the law books to find if he can declare himself president basically, and end around everyone. Just wonderful where we find ourselves today huh? I mean, damn I have me a hankering to buy some-a them STAWKS I keep hearin about!

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:00 | 1432073 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

I honestly think Tiny Tim won't have to do anything if a deal isn't reached.  Did you catch him recommending to BHO that he consider using the 14th amendment to bypass Congress?  I think BHO would use it if a deal isn't reached and he'll claim it's necessary due to "national security."  The debt ceiling will be increased one way or another.  It has to in order to keep the ponzi scheme going.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:03 | 1432084 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Problem is, Ponzi schemes always end, its just a mathematical certainty. Ponzi scheme experts know this, and get out themselves near the peak thats what makes you a Ponzi expert, knowing right when to get out before the feedback loop reverses and crashes.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:22 | 1432157 HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

If I were a Ponzi expert I'd get out now since, apparently, "they" have just "seasonally adjusted" 1 to 2 MILLION educators/staff out of the report, though those were not the normal summer layoffs, but permanent layoffs; that is going to show up in a huge way somewhere soon. They can't--CANNOT--cover the consequences of that up. Period.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 12:25 | 1432913 trav7777
trav7777's picture

he missed that whole "authorized by law" part of the 14th, eh?

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:43 | 1432037 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Begging for one more smack down on silver and gold...

The government cartels have officially entered the "trying entirely too fucking hard" phase of remaining in control.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:44 | 1432040 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

S&P will "skyrocket" today on an infield single (ADP, later to be revised as an error), and a sac bunt (initial jobless claims, a "push" to expectations). 

Problem is, in a real economy, both of these would be disastrous.  Bubbles are as much marginal sentiment as anything else...

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:53 | 1432055 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'HFT' style hiring and firing, employers like Starbux love it! Hire someone at 6 am for the morning Grande Latte enema rush, fire them by 9. Efficiency, bitchez.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:53 | 1432056 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Grasping at straws...CNN refers to ADP and Jobless Claims as "hopeful signs".  Of course, they must've forgotten the early March print of Jobless Claims at 368K...

http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/07/news/economy/jobs_claims_ADP/index.htm?source=cnn_bin&hpt=hp_bn3

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:02 | 1432081 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

The MSM has been using phrases like "hopeful signs" for the last 2 years.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:54 | 1432057 digalert
digalert's picture

I hope I have leftover change at the end of the day...

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:59 | 1432069 MiningJunkie
MiningJunkie's picture

Anyone actually BELIEVE that QEII ended? You actually BELIEVED Wall Street/Washington? In a pre-election year?

BUY BUY BUY!

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:00 | 1432076 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OK Tyler so whats the deal now with markets, 100 futures pops daily so how are they doing that now that QE and POMO is over? Whats their fuel now to power this bubble up .5% daily?

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:30 | 1432170 poor fella
poor fella's picture

Must be the 100s of billions of dollars on the sidelines that the retail investors are putting 'to work' now that the economy has turned the corner out of the transitory soft patch. At least that's what I've gleaned from Jim Paulson's cheerleading stint this morning on CNBS..

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:00 | 1432078 sabra1
sabra1's picture

they stuff thousands of unemployed on ships, float around here and there, count them all as first mates, promise to bring them all ashore in the future!

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:03 | 1432086 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Sadly...if jobs come back then the economy will tank further...this is how bad its gotten...

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:04 | 1432088 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

no mention how week before and after 4th holiday, is usually o a day les for people to file for initial claims..

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:05 | 1432094 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Correlation between equities and commodities is uncanny.  Oil up a $1.30. 

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:07 | 1432101 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

For ADP ...service sector saw the big spike. Think summer camps, vacation spots etc.. I expect to see this decline dramatically come fall.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:12 | 1432123 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Does everyone recall last summer when the clown and the vice clown took to the airways traveling on your dime from city to city tell all of us that it was the "Summer of Recovery" tour?  Well, he is more proof of the recovery, ...hows it looking??

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:16 | 1432140 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

NFP forecasts are being revised up, hearing DB to 175k from 100k and BNP to 125k from 75k. Good ol' Joe flipping and flopping again...

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:34 | 1432185 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

And these economists get paid huge money to change their forecasts on a nearly daily basis, which are always wrong anyway.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:33 | 1432179 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

The ugly reality is that the U.S. ecomomy is starting to resemble that of Chile under Pinochet.  85%-95% of the population is struggling to make ends meet, high inflation, stagnant/falling real wages, job market trainwreck, but you know what?  For the time being, the top 15%-5% doesn't need the rest of us to do well.  Just like in Chile in the '70s-'80s.  I spent some time among the idle rich in Maine this past weekend, they're doing just hunky-dory.  One of the well-bred gentlemen querying a local peasant (me) about my thoughts on the economy, couldn't even remember the year of the big crash (2008).  For them, it's like a distant forest fire.  We're the squirrels getting roasted.  Decoupling-- between the top and the bottom.  Unless you have (1) a trust fund, (2) a major source of cash flow (multiple rental properties, a successful factory, an investment house, whatever), etc., you're on the bottom, and even if all of us are living in tin shacks, it won't matter a fart for these characters, as long as they have the FRN's to pay the mercenaries, the cops, and the like.  Why do you think that the Beautiful People fawn over China, Brazil, those other places where there are 100 families living in splendor, and everyone else is in the crapper?  Easy, fewer middle class people "crowding" the roads, the colleges, the hospitals.... this current mess is run for and by the tip of the pyramid, and they now know (without any U.S.S.R. or the like offering competition or danger), that they don't even need to pretend to allow some crumbs in the form of manufacturing jobs, etc. to fall off the table.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:44 | 1432204 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Oh-- and just to be clear-- in my view, the remedies needed aren't more socialist schemes, but ideas needed to give the middle class/U.S. economy more breathing space-- reformed tax code, simplified regulations, NORMAL interest rates for savings, savings from tax-paid income exempted from double taxation, a criminal justice system that isn't a joke, so that people of modest means can enjoy personal and community safety, etc. etc. so that people can rebuild their lives.  But the big boys don't want competition, and the dinosaurs squash the squirrels, and they don't care.  Stock market's up, right?

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:56 | 1432243 JohnG
JohnG's picture

You are still asleep?  You describe a dream.  Dreams are psychotic by nature.

 

Have some coffee.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 10:14 | 1432299 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

A leader has the vision and conviction that a dream can be achieved. He inspires the power and energy to get it done.  Who's our leader?-- that's your point I think.  There are no leaders anymore. And if there are, they ain't running in the New Hampshire Primary. Mmm, good coffee.... 

I'm also reminded of that old newsreel of The Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. intoning, "Ahhhhhhh have a dream..."  what was that, 500 years ago? 

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 10:49 | 1432426 LaLiLuLeLo
LaLiLuLeLo's picture

From a young adults point of view, it's VERY clear to me the baby boomers could care less about the future. Sure they care about THEIR children and THEIR future, but the other kids...fuck'em "You're on your own JACK!" This mentality is starting at a local, personal level. Soon it will infect each country; then comes nation vs. nation. At that point, your Ithica M37 won't do shit. So help others because in the end, only love and charity will satisfy your heart, and possibly save it.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:37 | 1432192 inkarri9
inkarri9's picture

CNBC said that claims over 400,000 is "usually associated with a stable labor market".  What's next?  They'll say that the debt ceiling over $14T is usually associated with a stable economy?  

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 10:17 | 1432303 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

How about, "having one's children go hungry for 50% of the time is usually associated with a stable diet."

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:50 | 1432219 HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

Bubble X.0: Amazon P/E approaching 100 again. All remember, Amazon was probably THEE foundation of NASDAQ Ponzi 1.0. We've been here before...

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 10:37 | 1432372 pelican
pelican's picture

Those numbers are initual claims.  Do we have a reliable source for jobs that are created or the number of people that came off the unemployment list due to reemployment?

 

 

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 10:44 | 1432403 Jovil
Jovil's picture

The rich get richer and the poor have more children as in any third world country.

This poster hangs in the office of a prominent Nobel Prize winer en economics. See where you stand in the Pyramid of Capital System.

http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/05/09/pyramid-of-capital-syst...

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 11:29 | 1432620 dcb
dcb's picture

not that it matters, but we just hit all of my short term trading highs. by speeed line. we shall see

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 11:55 | 1432764 inkarri9
inkarri9's picture

Maybe I am completely off but if the initial claims number came in at 418,000, then let us assume that total inital claims for June is at 1,600,000.  Now, if ADP says that 157,000 jobs were added in June, doesn't that still put us at a serious negative number for June?  Or is ADP's number a net number for June?  That begs the following question - don't we need to add in excess of 250,000 jobs a month just to break even?

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 12:50 | 1433026 spiral galaxy
spiral galaxy's picture

I believe you are right!  1.6MM+ laid off for the 'first time' and 'only' 157K hired leaves some 1.5MM unaccounted for?  Also, from memory, 250K per month was need just to 'break even' with population growth.  In addition, there's been some 55 - 60MM 'first time' unemployed since the beginning of this recession.  That's almost HALF of the work force! Not many left to 'first time' unemploy I guess.  I wanting for a good analysis that will reconcile all these reports.  Meanwhile, July should be a surprise with the state shutdowns.  We'll see.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 13:28 | 1433152 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

ADP's numbers may reflect increased numbers of small employers leaving such services as quicken or bank services to use ADP because of the increased complexity of federal Obamacare regulations.

ADP often serves small and medium sized employers.

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