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Clashes Break Out Between Pro And Anti-Mubarak Groups In Cairo's Tahrir Square As Political Turmoil Spread To Yemen

Tyler Durden's picture




 

According to Al Jazeera, pro-Mubarak forces have clashed with the revolutionaries, in a sign that the "counter-revolution" has begun, and an Al Arabiya reporter has been stabbed by those who prefer Mubarak. It also appears that the pro-Mubarak forces are arriving on horseback, camelback and in chariots. Elsewhere, Egypt's armed forces on Wednesday told protesters that their demands had been heard and they must clear the streets: we are confident that everyone will disperse promptly and quietly... Another indication of how powerless the regime is, was that curfew hours were shortened even though nobody had been following the original curfew to begin with. Most importantly, the revolutionary concerns spread to Yemen, where president Ali Saleh followed in Mubarak's footsteps and vowed not to extend his term in 2013. Alas, his term will most likely be cut off well short of that optimistic estimate. 

From Bloomberg:

The Egyptian army said protesters should return to their homes, in a statement by a military spokesman on state television. It came hours after U.S. President Barack Obama told Mubarak that transition to democracy must “begin now.” Supporters of the president rallied in central Cairo and there were scuffles with protesters. Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh today vowed not to extend his term in 2013 after Mubarak said late yesterday he won’t run for re-election in September.

Political turmoil is spreading through the Middle East. Saleh called for a national unity government in Yemen, Jordan’s King Abdullah yesterday sacked his prime minister, and in Algeria protesters have been killed in clashes with security forces. The unprecedented protests in Egypt, which followed a revolt in Tunisia that ousted President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali on Jan. 14, have left as many as 300 people dead and roiled international stock, bond and oil markets.

“There is no chance Mubarak can last until September, there is too much water under the bridge,” said Rime Allaf, associate fellow of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at London’s Chatham House. “The protests won’t stop until he leaves or is ousted. The opposition is clear that they want the fall of the regime, not just Mubarak.”

As usual, follow the latest development on Al-Jazeera:

 

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Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:03 | 926768 downwiththebanks
downwiththebanks's picture

Well, we know where the police went.  They're driving the trucks and riding horses who are attacking the Movement.

Now, how will the people respond?

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:28 | 927047 whatz that smell
whatz that smell's picture

the ulitmate dirt clod fight!

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 11:02 | 927188 Bob
Bob's picture

They're busting up the pavement for "ammo."

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 12:21 | 927560 B9K9
B9K9's picture

Sous les pavés la plage?

On a slightly tangential note, while global events appear to be moving slowly, one should carefully note the overall trend: decay.

The most important underlying fact to remember is that we simply do not have sufficient fossil fuels in which to "grow our way out" of this situation. This isn't about peak oil - rather, it's about insufficient reserves necessary to drive a further 3-5% world-wide CAGR required to service the Ponzi.

One of the reasons Ferrarris are expensive is because they can accelerate to 175mph+ from 125mph. In other words, it's one thing for a car to achieve 125mph, but it's a whole different story moving beyond that point.

As we gain further perspective via the passage of time, we will come to see clearly that 2007 was not only the peak of the bubble, but it was the peak of the American Empire. All is decline thereafter.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 12:57 | 927732 flavian
flavian's picture

What happens right now is so sad. Same thing happened in Romania 20 years ago, at the end of the comunist revolution.? The president called the miners to beat up the people that were demanding true change. Google: February 1990 mineriad

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 13:52 | 927961 pan-the-ist
pan-the-ist's picture

Communists vs. Fascists.  In this case, the Fascist (enforce economic status quo) group attacked the Communist (pro democracy/wealth transfer) group on Horse-back and Camel-back.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 13:30 | 927886 Bob
Bob's picture

I'm surprised that nobody is labeling it "The Fall of Capitalism."  Sure, it got corrupted and arguably is no longer what capitalism should be, but it is what it is . . . and the socialists had no trouble seeing it coming.

Lest folks see red in response to this, the socialists were in the same position with the fall of the USSR empire--they could argue that it wasn't real socialism, but it was what it was. 

I think a real  robust hybrid system defended by the Rule of Law is long overdue.  Too bad these fuckers have no interest in reform and would rather see it burn than loosen their grip.  It's very analogous to the plight of the peaceful protesters in Tahrir Square, imo. 

It will be fine with the oligarchs if we are all slaves in the end . . . as long as they can get us to blame ourselves for it.

These are interesting times.  I heard yesterday that al Qaeda has announced it will be targeting banksters.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 13:44 | 927938 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

 

"May you live in interesting times."

I used to think this Chinese proverb was one of the best epigrams that I had ever read. Then I learned that it also has its origins as the first part of a Chinese curse. Not sure how reliable the Wikipedia is.

"May you come to the attention of those in authority."

"May you find what you are looking for."

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_times

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 13:58 | 927995 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Cube-square law, bitchez!

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 12:18 | 927542 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

WHY CAN'T WE ALL JUST GET ALONG!!??!!!

 

AND DO WHAT I SAY!?!!!!

 

OBEY MY COMMAND OR FEEL MY WRATH!!!

 

 

KILL THE VIRGINS AND BRING ME THE SLUTS AND THE GOLD!!

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 14:21 | 928085 Pez
Pez's picture

Funny! You just repeated the Eygptian Central Bank mantra.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 15:57 | 928427 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

you know, with enough gold you can turn the virgins into sluts.

no need to waste resources ;-)

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 14:05 | 928019 In Fed We Trust
In Fed We Trust's picture

 

On the Drudge today.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8298427/WikiLeaks-te...

Futher evidence that Wikileaks is now a CIA operative.

Still not convinced. Go here http://www.infowars.com/wikileaks-cointelpro-psyop/

and use your noggin!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:32 | 927070 Bob
Bob's picture

They've set up the situation brilliantly.  Who didn't hear this coming in Hosni's speech yesterday?

Anderson Cooper got his ass kicked. 

Every time I've seen photos of people carrying sticks for protection I've thought that I would wanna be carrying a nice heavy piece of pipe. 

I'm guessing this will be Mubarak's pretext for enforcing martial law.  I don't think these protesters were down for some ultra-violence.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:45 | 927132 zenmeister
zenmeister's picture

Martial law has been in effect in Egypt since Mubarak took office in 1981...

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 11:36 | 927187 Bob
Bob's picture

" . . . for enforcing martial law . . . "

Now the "pro-Mubarak" crowd controls the exits to the Square and are throwing molotov cocktails at the peaceful crowd.  The military is hands-off.

This is gonna be a mass slaughter.

So much for the ire of the social media set.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 12:15 | 927291 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I wonder what Anderson Cabot Pierpont Morgan Vanderbilt Cooper was doing there?

"Meee....I am not a globalist, I am on the side of the people...the people.  Meeee....."  Wined the inbred news reported as he slumped into his director's chair.  He was inside one of his many Hollywood style trailers.  His caravan was protected by guards from the nearby Xe headquarters.  "Someone put more ketchup on my face, I want to look bad...really bad...meeee....but don't ruin my makeup...meee...."

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 16:07 | 928465 Ms. Erable
Ms. Erable's picture

Someone should tell Cooper that bumping his head into another man's thigh bone while giving a blowjob is not the same as being "punched in the head".

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:46 | 927136 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Calling the Chicago 10....

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 11:38 | 927347 bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

Well they just turned a protest into an insurgency, which is what Mubarak and "the West" want.  Turmoil that continues to justify the enforcement of the emergency laws, yada yada.

Obama, Clinton, Israel and all the CFR prime movers are cracking open a Miller right now after a hard hot week of mowing dad's lawn.  Those guys were really taken off guard.

Somehow we are just entering Act II.  Its going to be very busy in Egypt this year.  From sightings of AQ in the dark alleys to rounding up the usual suspects - never to be seen again, to forming bogus political parties. Note to self.  1 old military dictator, 1 CIA proxy, 4 Mossad agents and 12 CFR old timers can't keep a lid on any urban area with an 8 million hungry population, nor a country that serves 80 million.

The Egyptians know where this political theater is leading.

More inflated wheat prices and more banker debt for Egypt.

Elites, whether they exist in America or Egypt, hate democracy.

 

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 12:20 | 927557 GDE
GDE's picture

You are totally missing the point. The US are behind these riots and want Mubarak to go away.

Egypt protests: America's secret backing for rebel leaders behind uprising

 

The American government secretly backed leading figures behind the Egyptian uprising who have been planning “regime change” for the past three years, The Daily Telegraph has learned.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/828...

Uncle Sam is playing with fire once again.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 13:15 | 927811 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

 A ridiculous piece of disinformation by Huffpost Obamaphiles.

 Check more carefully. A few people who do not like Mubarak's dictatorship spoke at a few public conferences in the US, and met with some low level State Dept. officials who dismissed them as irrelevant per Wikileaks cables.

 The real story is that the Obama administration consistently backed Mubarak (or more exactly, backed Egyptian military dictatorship).

 Mubarak's dictatorship was backed as stable, as not a dictatorship, Biden stated Mubarak should not step down, HRC promised continued military aid.

Meanwhile Obama attempted to defuse the protesters (both Egyptian and US) with verbiage in support of future democracy, violence solves nothing (like Afghanistan?), accept Mubarak's concessions (none), and allow Mubarak to oversee a (fake) "transition" to democracy.

 

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 15:08 | 928252 snowball777
snowball777's picture

If you're going to link propaganda pieces, please find better ones than those written by 'yellowcake' pommie twits.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 11:48 | 927394 Quincy
Quincy's picture

From the BBC ...

"I R in Cairo writes: 'I just came back from Tahrir Square, supporting Mubarak to continue his term. I am not an NDP member, never voted and never participated in a demonstration before last week. Ninety per cent of our demands have been met. Enough demonstrations. We need a smooth transition of power.'"

I think Mubarak deserves some credit for not bowing to the demands of the Chosen One. I'm going on the record now saying that in the Arab world Mubarak will be viewed positively for telling Obammie and the west to f off.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 11:54 | 927432 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

I think you are right that the US administration wanted Mubarak out now and he told them to f--- off. This crew in the white house is incompetent.  Obama hasn't done anything right since he personally directed the rescue af the Maersk Alabama.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 14:22 | 928084 rsbenton
rsbenton's picture

Looks like a jihadi Tet offensive is sweeping North Africa.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 14:22 | 928087 rsbenton
rsbenton's picture

Looks like a jihadi Tet offensive is sweeping North Africa.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 14:26 | 928107 pan-the-ist
pan-the-ist's picture

Maybe this will help educate the libertopians on what Fascism really is and how their ideal has no chance to survive in its presence.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 15:18 | 928279 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/163291.html   Egyptian authorities have refused to heed international calls for a faster transition of power as anti-government protests continue for the ninth consecutive day. Egypt rejects fast transition of power Wed Feb 2, 2011 6:42PM

Criticizing foreign parties for interfering in Egypt's internal affairs, the Egyptian foreign ministry spokesman said on Wednesday that such calls aim at worsening the situation in the country.

"What foreign parties are saying about 'a period of transition beginning immediately' in Egypt is rejected," foreign ministry spokesman Hossam Zaki said in a statement.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 20:37 | 929372 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"They are trapped in Umm Qasr. They are trapped near Basra. They are trapped near Nasiriyah. They are trapped near Najaf. They are trapped everywhere." -- Baghdad Bob

 

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:04 | 926770 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Ultra Violence to bring Peace in the Middle East.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWLByMshYIU

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:42 | 927076 Bob
Bob's picture

Great reference! 

I hadn't seen it before my post above!  Weird coincidence . . .

Wow, what a perfect film clip--not only for this situation, but for our times.  Thanks.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:06 | 926773 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

You can't let them off the hook, drive it home Viva La Revolution!

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:06 | 926775 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

 

"Risk appetite returns to US?" 

"Gold plummets"

 

 

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:08 | 926778 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

This reminds of the Iran in 1979. Although Mubarak is a corrupt dictator, the Muslim Brotherhood is an extremist Islamic group, which seems more dangerous than Mubarak in my humble opinion.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:10 | 926782 downwiththebanks
downwiththebanks's picture

The Muslim Brotherhood is an imperialist intelligence asset, which explains why they've not supported the Movement in any substantial way to this point.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:58 | 926944 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

eigenvalue

I defer to the experts.

http://www.juancole.com/2011/02/why-egypt-2011-is-not-iran-1979.html

Why Egypt 2011 is not Iran 1979

Posted on 02/02/2011 by Juan

Alarms have been raised by those observing the popular uprising in Egypt that, while it is not itself a Muslim fundamentalist movement, the Muslim fundamentalists could take it over as it unfolds. The best-positioned group to do so is the Muslim Brotherhood. Some are even conflating the peaceful Brotherhood with radical groups such as al-Qaeda. I showed in my recent book, Engaging the Muslim World, that the Muslim Brotherhood has since the 1970s opposed the radical movements. In any case, the analogy many of these alarmists are making, explicitly or implicitly, is to Iran in 1978-79, which saw similar scenes of massive crowds in the street, demanding the departure of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, their king.

Misagh Parsa argued that the revolution of 1978-79 was made by several different social groups, each for its own reasons. The revolution was fought against the monarchy, which presided over an oil-exporting economy that had gone into overdrive because of the big fourfold run-up of prices in the 1970s. Many felt that they were not sharing in that prosperity, or were inconvenienced by the Shah’s authoritarian government.

1. THE BAZAAR: The bazaar is a way of referring to the old business and artisan classes who congregated in covered bazaars and around mosques and courts in the older part of Iranian cities. Everyone from tinsmiths, to moneylenders, to carpet import-export merchants is encompassed by the phrase. The bazaar came to be in significant competition with the new business classes (importers of tin pans were putting the tinsmiths out of business, and modern banking was making inroads against the moneylenders). The bazaar had many links with the ayatollahs in mosques and seminaries, including via intermarriage. The Shah despised the bazaar as a bastion of feudal backwardness, and imposed onerous taxes and fines on it, in addition to casually destroying entire bazaars, as at Mashhad. THE BAZAAR FAVORED THE CLERGY AND BANKROLLED THE REVOLUTION.

2. WHITE AND BLUE COLLAR WORKERS: Industrial and oil workers struck over their wages and labor conditions. School teachers and white collar professionals (nurses, physicians, etc.) protested the lack of democracy.

3. SECULAR PARTIES: The old National Front of the early 1950s movement for oil nationalization was weak and aging but still significant. The Communist Party was much less important than in the 1950s but still had some organizational ability. Left-leaning youth radicals, such as the Fedayan-i Khalq (which leaned mildly Maoist) had begun guerrilla actions against the regime. There were also secular intellectuals in what was called the Writer’s Movement.

4. RELIGIOUS FORCES: The religious forces included not only the clergy and mosque networks of dissidents such as Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini (in exile in Najaf, Iraq and then Paris), but also religious party-militias such as the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK: Fighters for the People). In Shiite Islam, a doctrine had grown up that laypersons owe implicit obedience to the clergy when the latter rule on the practice of religious law. Ayatollahs have a place of honor not common for Sunni clergy.

Parsa argues, I think correctly, that the religious forces were initially only one of the important social groups that made the revolution, but of course they ultimately hijacked it and repressed the other three. Note that although the rural population was the majority in Iran at that time, it was little involved in the revolution, though it was very well represented in the subsequent revolutionary parliament and so benefited from new rounds of road, school and other building in the 1980 and 1990s.

Egypt is, unlike Iran, not primarily an oil state. Its sources of revenue are tourism, Suez Canal tolls, manufactured and agricultural exports, and strategic rent (the $1.5 bn. or so in aid from the US comes under this heading). Egypt depends on the rest of the world for grain imports. Were it to adopt a radical and defiant ideology like that of Iran, all its major sources of income would suddenly evaporate, and it might have trouble even just getting enough imported food. Moreover, the social forces making the revolution in Egypt have a significantly different profile and different dynamics than in Iran. Let us just go through the same list.

1. THE BAZAAR: To the extent that there is a bazaar (the Arabic would be suq) in Egypt, it is by now very heavily dependent on the tourist trade. Coptic Christians are well represented in it. The suq therefore tends to oppose social policies that would scare away Western tourists. The suq will do very badly this year because of the turmoil. One merchant in Khan al-Khalili once told me that the bad years for his business had been 1952, 1956, 1967, 1973– the years of the revolution and then the Arab-Israeli wars that would have been celebrated by nationalists but which he regretted.. Because few tourists came those years. That the Egyptian Market would bankroll Egyptian fundamentalists to establish an oppressive theocracy that would permanently scare away German holiday-makers is highly unlikely.


Khan al-Khalili

2. WHITE AND BLUE COLLAR WORKERS: These groups are among the primary instigators of the Egyptian uprising. The April 6 group of young labor activists first came to prominence when they supported strikes by textile factory workers in Mahalla al-Kubra and elsewhere for improved wages and work conditions. There have been more than 3,000 labor actions by Egyptian workers since 2004. The pro-labor youth activists have been among the major leaders of the uprising in the past week, and had pioneered the use of Facebook and Twitter for such purposes.


Egyptian Factory Workers

3. SECULAR FORCES. When I say ‘secular’ with regard to Egypt, I do not mean that these groups are made up of atheists and agnostics. Their members may go to mosque and pray and be personally pious. But such people can nevertheless vote for parties that are not primarily organized around religion. These include the New Wafd Party, a revival of the old liberal party that dominated Egypt 1922-1952 during its “liberal” period of parliamentary elections and prime ministers. The Wafd had originally represented the interests of great landlords and budding bankers and industrialists, though its original role in fighting for independence from Britain also gave it popular support. It reemerged when Egypt began turning away from Gamal Abdel Nasser’s socialism and it again championed private property rights. It attracted the allegiance of many Copts, as well as middle class Muslims. Although it has suffered divisions and declining popularity in recent elections, in a situation of free and fair elections it could regain some popularity. Then there is the Tomorrow (al-Ghad) party of Ayman Nur, who won 8% of the vote in the 2005 presidential election. And there is the Kefaya! (Enough!) movement. All three favor human rights and parliamentary democracy. There are also many secular figures in the literary establishment and in the film world (such as comic Adil Imam). And, of course, there is the ruling National Democratic Party, which has a generally secular bias and dislikes Muslim fundamentalism. Whether it can overcome its association with Hosni Mubarak and continue to contest elections credibly remains to be seen. It is now by far the dominant party in parliament, though nobody thinks the elections were free and fair.


Ayman Nur

4. THE RELIGIOUS FORCES: Unlike in Iran, there are relatively few prominent dissident clergy. “Televangelist” Yusuf al-Qaradawi, in exile in Qatar, should be counted among them. The Egyptian state had for the most part nationalized mosques and controlled the clerical corps. Few Egyptian clergyman command the respect or obedience of the laity to the extent that Khomeini did in Iran. The major religious party is the Muslim Brotherhood, founded in 1928. Although it developed a terrorist wing in the 1940s, it faced severe crackdowns in the 1950s and 1960s, and lost that capacity. Although the radical thinker Sayyid Qutb came out of their movement, the MB leadership disowned him in the late 1960s and even refuted his radical doctrines (such as declaring other Muslims with whom he disagreed to be ‘non-Muslims’) as “un-Sunni.” By the 1970s the Brotherhood’s leaders were willing to make their peace with the government of Anwar El Sadat. He let them operate if they agreed not to resort to violence and not to try to overthrow the government. In the 1990s, the Brotherhood came to counter the radical movements, such as the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, and so had a tacit partnership with the state. Egypt does not allow parties to be organized on the basis of religion, but even so Muslim Brother candidates have done well in some parliamentary elections (especially 2006), running under the rubric of other parties.

So to recapitulate. The white collar and labor activists are far more central to the organization of the Egyptian protests than had been their counterparts in the Iranian Revolution. The Egyptian “bazaar” is much less tied to the Muslim clergy than was the case in Iran, and far less likely to fund clerical politicians. Whereas Iran’s bazaar merchants often suffered from Western competition, Egypt’s bazaar depends centrally on Western tourism. Secular parties, if we count the NDP, have an organizational advantage over the religious ones, since they have been freer to meet and act under Mubarak. It is not clear that the law banning religious parties will be changed, in which case the Brotherhood would again be stuck with running its candidates under other rubrics. And, Sunni Muslims don’t have a doctrine of owing implicit obedience to their clergy, and the clergy are not as important in Sunni religious life as the Shiite Ayatollahs are in Iran. The Muslim Brotherhood, a largely lay organization, has a lot of support, but it is not clear that they could gain more than about a third of seats even if they were able to run in free elections.

One of the sources of the Muslim Brotherhood’s popularity was its opposition to Mubarak, and it may actually lose followers without him around. Other religious politicians and entrepreneurs may proliferate, in a freer atmosphere, dividing the religious section of the electorate. And, the Brotherhood could well evolve to be more like Turkey’s Justice and Development [AK] Party than like its old, sectarian, underground self. There is nothing in MB ideology that forbids participation in parliamentary democracy, even though it was not exactly a big theme of its founder, Hasan al-Banna.

Some analysts read off support for the MB from Egyptians’ religiosity. Egyptians have been undergoing a religious revival in the past couple of decades. You have to think about them like southern evangelicals in the US. When I am in Egypt it reminds me a lot of South Carolina in that regard. But that people go to mosque, or that their women wear headscarves, or that they value religion, does not necessarily translate into them voting for a sectarian and somewhat cliquish group like the Muslim Brotherhood. Many pious Muslims are factory workers and so closer to April 6 than to the Brotherhood. Many women who wear headscarves do so to legitimate their entry into the modern labor force and appearance in the public sphere. National identity co-exists with the religious. Egyptians are also great nationalists, and many insist that the Egyptian nation is a framework within which Christian Copts are completely legitimate participants.

A recent Pew poll found that 59% of Egyptians favor democracy in almost all situations. And fully 60 percent are very or somewhat worried about the specter of religious extremism in their society. About 61% do not even think there is a struggle between modernizers and religion in Egypt.

Among the 31% who did see such a struggle, 59% favored religious forces and 21% favored the modernizers. Barry Rubin and Michael Totten misread this latter statistic to be true of all Egyptians. They are wrong. The statistic is not about Egyptians in general, but about the third of them who see a conflict between modernizers and religion. 59% of 31% is 18% of the whole Egyptian population who favor fundamentalists over modernizers. The rest either favor the modernizers or think it is a phony conflict. Not thinking that modernism and religiosity conflict is generally a liberal point of view.

It cannot be assumed that the Muslim Brotherhood is the future face of Egypt, and there is no reason to think it has the popularity or levers of power that would allow it to make a coup. The Brothers are more likely to gain further influence (as they already have since 2006) via parliamentary elections. I cannot, of course, know whether there will be new parliamentary elections in Egypt soon, whether the Muslim Brotherhood will be allowed to run, or how well, exactly, they will do. They would likely be far more influential in a democratic Egypt than they have been under Mubarak, but I cannot see what would make them hegemonic. They would want liquor to be banned throughout the country, e.g. which would be very bad for tourism, and a lot of Egyptians depend on tourism. Of course, social groups sometimes do go in directions that irrationally harm their economic interests. But the Cassandras have no proof that Egyptians will take that path.

 

About

 

Juan Cole is Richard P. Mitchell Collegiate Professor of History at the University of Michigan. For three decades, he has sought to put the relationship of the West and the Muslim world in historical context. His most recent book is Engaging the Muslim World (Palgrave Macmillan, March, 2009) and he also recently authored Napoleon’s Egypt: Invading the Middle East (Palgrave Macmillan, 2007). He has been a regular guest on PBS’s Lehrer News Hour, and has also appeared on ABC Nightly News, Nightline, the Today Show, Charlie Rose, Anderson Cooper 360, Countdown with Keith Olbermann, Rachel Maddow, the Colbert Report, Democracy Now! and many others. He has given many radio and press interviews. He has written widely about Egypt, Iran, Iraq, and South Asia. He has commented extensively on al-Qaeda and the Taliban, the Iraq War, the politics of Pakistan and Afghanistan, and Iranian domestic struggles and foreign affairs. He has a regular column at Truthdig. He continues to study and write about contemporary Islamic movements, whether mainstream or radical, whether Sunni and Salafi or Shi`ite. Cole commands Arabic, Persian and Urdu and reads some Turkish, knows both Middle Eastern and South Asian Islam. He lived in various parts of the Muslim world for nearly 10 years, and continues to travel widely there. A bibliography of his writings may be found here.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:30 | 927060 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

Some are even conflating the peaceful Brotherhood with radical groups [...]

Some expert you got there... I admit I didn't read the rest.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 11:06 | 927213 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

nonclaim

"I admit I didn't read the rest."

And that's why Cole is the expert and you are not.

Fuck that isn't even a valid argument.

At the very least you could have posted something that would counter Coles claims.

To be honest, I don't agree with everything Cole ever says. But he does attempt to be fair in his assessments. He isn't a button pusher attempting to rile the masses with blatant falsehoods and self serving innaccuracies.

 

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 11:14 | 927247 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

probably because he's an academic and not an oilman (or their loyal servant) 

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 14:08 | 928031 PeterSchump
PeterSchump's picture

Why don't you dig deeper into where he gets his funding from.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 16:31 | 928543 DaveyJones
Wed, 02/02/2011 - 11:25 | 927302 Batty Koda
Batty Koda's picture

The revolutions sweeping through the middle east have been planned by Intelligence agencies, GET OVER IT. The evidence is clear, resist your basic urges to support revolutionaries.

Were you out on the street waving an orange flag for Ukraine back in 2005? If so don't be fooled twice, or five times as the case may be.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 12:13 | 927527 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

I don't buy it.  The Middle East has been ripe for revolution for at least several decades now, certainly since the beginning of the Glorious War of Terror.

How many brutal assaults by Israel do you think the Arab people are going to take while their Western-backed overlords worked in concert with American intelligence to quell any possible overthrow of the power balance?  There is no such thing as "forgive and forget" in the Arab mind.  It is "eye for an  eye, tooth for a tooth".  You can also add "never forget", for the Arab memory is long (think Crusades).

So, no, I don't buy it.

This is organic.  It's about Israel, and ultimately arrogant American hegemony.  You can believe Webster Tarpley's claptrap all you want, the guy is talking out of his ass on this one, and combined with his quip about Austrian economists being "crackpots", I'd say his entire agenda is suspect at this point.

This is Revolution, folks.  You are the collective witness to monumental history presently taking place.  Enjoy.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 12:24 | 927581 Quincy
Quincy's picture

I entirely agree with what you've written but let me ask you ... whose side in the current revolt represents the best interests of the Egyptian people?

I would argue that Mubarak does after last night's speech in which he agreed to not stand in Sept. and for constitutional reforms including term limits.

I suspect what forces are really behind the 'protesters' now that they have received the endorsement of the West and are unwilling to make any compromise with respect to the timing of Mubarak's handover of power.

I'll reiterate what I wrote in an earlier post ... I think that Mubarak will, although perhaps not immediately, be viewed positively in the Arab world for telling the Obama regime to f off. I'm not entirely sure that he is a US lacky anymore ... and therefore a much more dangerous man.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 12:44 | 927686 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Window dressing.  Staged and rehearsed.  Lines memorized.  The dude is a satrap of the US.  What do you expect him to say???

The modus operandi of the Powers That Be is to coopt movements that begin outside their realm of control to bring them back into the fold.  The latest most pertinent example would be the Tea Party, sprung up organically from Ron Paul's campaign effort and flummoxed by Fox News and Glenn Beck jumping on the bandwagon, to get in front of the movement and control its direction.  The same thing is being attempted here, but it'll fail.  It's silly that they'll even try it here.  It simply won't work, and that'll be borne out over the course of the coming weeks/months.

Mubarak is now and forever will be remembered as the lackey of Israel.  Nothing he does at this point will redeem his image.  The Arab people are not stupid (despite what neocons have been trying to ingrain in your brain for going on 20 years now).

The interests of the Egyptian People are best represented by...the Egyptian People.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 13:36 | 927908 Quincy
Quincy's picture

Many Arabs view Hussein as a hero now. Don't think that just because Mubarak is or was an American instrument, that he doesn't have a few cards of his own to play.

Ultimately it is the West's endorsement of the 'movement' and Mubarak's perceived opposition to the West that is the potential game changer for the man in the streets ... the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 14:34 | 928144 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Middle Eastern dynamics don't work that way.  Saddam might be admired for standing up to the West to the bitter end, and he gained some sympathy for the manner in which he was thrown under the bus when his "service" to the West was no longer useful.  And most importantly of all, he stood up to Israel and he scored some hits with those Scuds.  Remember that?  He was a piece of shit, but he was THEIR piece of shit.

What has Mubarak done?  Sealed off Gaza, helping Israel to force the Palestinians stew in their own misery, played ball with Western imperial designs on the Arab world, and brutally suppressed the Egyptian people in service to the zionist cause.  The difference here is the West (and particularly, Israel) wants Mubarak to stay, while the Egyptians want him gone.  He may be THEIR piece of shit, but he's still a piece of shit.

Israel is the difference.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 17:33 | 928739 Quincy
Quincy's picture

The Egyptians want him gone. Really? Seems like you've been watching too much CNN.

Mubarak's speech yesterday resonated with many everyday Egyptians who already (rightly) distrust the anti-government protesters whom they see led by secular, Western educated elites who play the role of full-time protesters (sounds kind of like 'community activist' would to an American). After the speech last night many supporters of moderate reform no longer associated themselves with a anti-government protest that wanted to remove the current regime yet had no plan for what comes after and also seemed to have a personal beef with Mubarak.

You're underestimating the allegiance to Mubarak and no it's not just about Israel.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 21:20 | 929485 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

hussein: "He was a piece of shit, but he was THEIR piece of shit." Geo-politics in 13 words or less.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 12:25 | 927584 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Its possible that the whole thing was planned. However, sometimes thing take on a life of their own. One can only hope that some real change happens in Egypt. If it does, it will have unknown ramifications shaking the foundations of the middle east and troubling the zionist power structure and causing delays in planning, again.........

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 13:00 | 927742 duckduckMOOSE
duckduckMOOSE's picture

Things always take on a life of their own.  This entire world is the creation of "blowback", unintended consequences.  The "elite" are just joe blow greedheads who have their hands on the levers of power greater than most.  All they are doing is hanging on to the tails of the various tigers they keep creating.  They bring in a cat to kill the mouse, a dog to get rid of the cat, etc.. The slow rolling disaster of this planet is not the result of wise foresight, evil or otherwise, just reacting to greater and greater complexity of disaster.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 13:12 | 927794 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

 

<tinfoilhat>

I don't believe that all consequences are unintended.

Crises can be manufactured.

Pretext can be created.

Use-of-force can be justified.

There are groups and individuals in the world who wield sufficient power so that events can be manipulated to favor a political elite. I cannot be convinced otherwise.

</tinfoilhat>

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 13:35 | 927896 duckduckMOOSE
duckduckMOOSE's picture

Yes, I believe this also in the smaller picture.  I just believe the bigger picture is turning out to be more than can be controlled.  P.S. Did you post the "HiveMind" stuff?  That's very interesting, but a HiveMind isn't omnicient, and can't see all the ends, thus the uninteded consequences.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 15:49 | 928398 downrodeo
downrodeo's picture

Complexity reigns supreme

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 15:57 | 928429 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

Research on that subject is currently underway.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/26/opinion/26iht-edschmidt.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jared-cohen/digital-age-has-ushered-i_b_15...

http://kara.allthingsd.com/20100723/is-state-departments-tweeter-in-chie...

http://www.america.gov/st/texttrans-english/2008/November/20081124173327...

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-02-01/the-state-depa...

If as Winston Churchill  observed, history is written by the victors, then perhaps the future is scripted by those players with the game plan.  Future prediction in this scenario suggests the contango and backwardation of societal outcomes are irrelevant.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 15:58 | 928430 11b40
11b40's picture

All kinds of schemes can be dreamed up and set in play by simple humans, but we really don't do long-term chess games well. 

Just because you can light a match does not mean you can control the fire, and when there happens to be a ammo dump near an out of control blaze, the result is a big "Oh Shit!" moment.

There are far too many uncontrollable variables in the ME to predict any outcome with certainty.  Expect the unexpected.  As of today, it's game-on, Bitchez!  The dogs have been let out of their cages.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 12:39 | 927669 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

Well said Chumba. When do we start ours?

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 12:47 | 927695 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Soon, my friend, soon.  Bide your time, but don't remain idle.  There's work to be done to prepare.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 15:01 | 928237 Batty Koda
Batty Koda's picture

Sure Egyptians are genuinely angry but that's not enough, they need coordination. If Egyptians don't want to be a US/IMF puppet anymore they better start listening to the voices of reason.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=22993

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 12:01 | 927356 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

And that's why Cole is the expert and you are not.

Fuck that isn't even a valid argument.

By being a non-expert I can make mistakes while Cole is always right. Ok... I agree! That is a dumb argument.

He didn't have to call the MB "peaceful". First: it is a lie, they created the radical Islamic movement; check MB's history. Second, with that lie his article becomes nothing more than a political piece even if the rest is technical and correct. He didn't have to do that but he chose to do it and became a tool for even more radicalism in the region.

It is not about countering his claims, but pointing out a lie that he tries to pass on as truth because everything else he says is truth.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 12:37 | 927650 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

peaceful is a such a relative term. Compared to whom? Are we peaceful? Should we fear them? Should they fear us? Shoud we trust them? Should they trust us? Are they radical? Are we? It's just a word game, a hypocritical, relative word game.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 13:29 | 927814 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

War is peace, peace is war. It's all relative... really?

That's a state of mind *you* chose to live in, where everything has equal weight because you can't decide for yourself... Don't worry somebody else will decide what's good for you.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 16:42 | 928557 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

Speaking of "misreadings," I asked you if they are more peaceful than us and if they have as much basis to fear and distrust us than we them. By not answering any of those questions but simply adding a fear monger line, you prove my point

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 18:57 | 929039 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

Wasn't it enough to debunk the "relativity" premise?

How to answer a question where both "us" and "them" make you wrong? If I say "them", I'm biased and thus wrong; if I say "us", I'm the evil one and thus wrong. If I don't answer... I'm wrong too!

It is a dishonest question, to be blunt.

It's just a word game, a hypocritical, relative word game.

That is your point, you proved it. Congratulations.

I'll not play this game.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 21:58 | 929547 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

Uncle R is right, you don't understand the point of the parody (or you're feigning ignorance).  Let's see, you challenged Juan Cole's description of the MB as "peaceful," then bowed out of the debate when I asked you if "they" are more or less peaceful than "us." You know very well that "them" = MB and "us"= the US empire. You're folding to avoid the hypocrisy you created.  And you dismiss Cole's piece as "political?" You have a great future in the State Department        

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 12:44 | 927687 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

How's that bigotry working out for you?

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 13:22 | 927852 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

Can you clearify which part you call bigotry, so I can correct myself next time?

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 13:31 | 927871 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Bigotry is a mind set. Anything contrary to white Christian America Empire can't possibly be peaceful. 

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 13:49 | 927960 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

That's a ridiculous misreading of what I wrote.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 14:15 | 928063 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Think of it more as parody.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 16:47 | 928584 tired1
tired1's picture

Thanks for the post. For someone who has little insight into the proceses it is, at least, a place to start to build understanding.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:26 | 927034 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

And of course you know this because you heard it on TV?  Or perhaps you read it on the internet?

The MB have barely even been seen, much less heard in these protests.  This is about the People of Egypt.  Egyptians don't want to be ruled by religious extremists any more than you do.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:45 | 927130 Bob
Bob's picture

Perhaps their leader occupies the office next to his in Langley. 

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:46 | 927137 laughing_swordfish
laughing_swordfish's picture

+ 1. Good to see you back Chumba.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 11:18 | 927266 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

"Now, it is not the role of any other country to determine Egypt’s leaders" - our president.

other than ours

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:35 | 926858 RemiG2010
RemiG2010's picture

Nawaz Calls Egypt Unrest a `Young People's Revolution'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3L-Gbuda_g

Israelis React to Egypt Protests
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMO61r1A4RY

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:08 | 926780 downwiththebanks
downwiththebanks's picture

A-J reports bands of hooligans and agent provocateurs in Suez. 

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:31 | 927063 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

agent provocateurs...

That is just way too cool.

I bet it sounds even better with a jaded French accent.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:11 | 926783 Incubus
Incubus's picture

It also appears that the pro-Mubarak forces are arriving on horseback, camelback and in chariots.

Gotta say, they know how to do a counter-revolution in style.

 

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:23 | 926823 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

Indeed.  That is a strange piece of reporting.  I thought ZH was being sarcastic but it appears to be in earnest.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:28 | 927045 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

How otherwise would Pharoah's men arrive at the battle?

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:47 | 927142 Bob
Bob's picture

I'm wondering if these might be the missing prison inmates, now working off their sentences in service to the state.  That would provide perfect deniability.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:57 | 927175 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

They don't call Mubarak the Pharaoh for nothing, shit...

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 11:25 | 927301 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The camels were there to scare Anderson V. Cooper away.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 11:29 | 927312 Bob
Bob's picture

You really got a thing about Cooper, man.  What is it about that guy, anyway?  Seems like most guys either have a man crush on the guy or wanna beat his ass!

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 11:58 | 927455 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

Sounds Cooper wants to be the new Geraldo.  When the reporter becomes the news it is known as buffoonery.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 12:06 | 927489 Bob
Bob's picture

CNBC had Erin Burnett there a couple days ago and she was looking none too comfortable then.  A picture of her today would be priceless.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 12:50 | 927711 Bubbles...bubbl...
Bubbles...bubbles everywhere's picture

Send in the archers!

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:12 | 926787 downwiththebanks
downwiththebanks's picture

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/163052.html

Reports say Israel has sent crowd dispersal weapons to the Egyptian regime to curb massive protests against President Hosni Mubarak's 30 years of authoritarian rule.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:28 | 926803 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

No.  This was already fixed.  Egyptian spreads are in nicely.  QE3 imminent.  Did I mention this is all priced in?  Harry is selling record amounts of first gen IPhones at his road side stand.  Rally on.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:22 | 926820 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Of course. Mossad/MI6/RAW? are possibly all in there, working it.

So many stories already about embedded folk. And then the late waking Muslim brotherhood...

Potent mix for bad stuff. I guess the chosen date for conflagration is not yet.

If it was spontaneous, it would be laudable. But this is spawn-taneous and it stinks.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/01/31/then-again-people-choose-yoga-over-gurdjieff/

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:30 | 926852 Confused
Confused's picture

Of course there are some evil forces at work. Who let all those people out of jail? Surely that wouldn't have been done by any reasonable person. Now there are neighborhood watches, which keeps people off the streets (and things destabilized). Seems obvious, unless I'm totally missing something. 

 

Sorry, tin foil hat a bit tight today. 

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:49 | 926910 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Confused, in my world view, a tin/silver foil hat is de rigueur.

Woolen hats are for Sheep. ;-)

ORI

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:23 | 926958 Mercury
Mercury's picture

The jailhouse doors always get thrown open during a revolution.  That's just in the universal playbook.  Nothing you can really do about that.

What's much worse is what follows in the rest of that playbook - which doesn't have to be followed but usually is:

After the autocrat is deposed it turns out that the group of well-meaning, just-want-a-better-life, student/youth/concerned mothers who suddenly find themselves in charge - don't know what the fuck they're doing... The power of the "state" is weak, minimally effective and vulnerable.

Then the well organized, well trained, radical minority make a power play, take over and ruthlessly eliminate any opposition from within followed by a hard clamp down on everyone else once they are firmly in the driver's seat...

So, the net result is usually that you end up having traded a king/shah/imperialist lackey for a Robespierre/Ayatollah/Castro.

You can see how exceptional America is (was) in this regard.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:24 | 927019 Confused
Confused's picture

Fair enough, but this whole thing is rather silly. 

The White House releases a bunch of different statements. All of which are hollow considering the political situation.

Protests are relatively peaceful for about a week. 

Military disappears, and suddenly a violent outbreak. (anyone clear on the internet/cell situation? I mean, how was that organized?)

 

Global playbook indeed sir. I guess my frustration comes from how obvious it seems.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:52 | 927148 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Oh hell, Obama can't figure which fire-breathing, authoritarian team to throw his weight behind and the whole concept of sticking up for individual rights against the state (American constitutional values) is so fucking foreign to him he's turning into a babbling mess.  At best you can say he wants to see who wins before he picks sides.

It has been Hillary Clinton (whom I am hardly a fan of) who has been first, loudest and most concise in her vocal support for those struggling against tyrany and seeking civil rights.  Most of what she's said so far could have been said by either Bush, her husband or Reagan.  She makes Obama look like a cub scout.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 11:35 | 927338 Batty Koda
Batty Koda's picture

They are playing games, do you really think Clinton cares about democracy in Egypt? The US is just hedging it's bets, if Mubarak stays Obama supported him, if he goes Hillary called for that so Egypt can have democracy.

In reality they're desperate for him to go, he's realised the west has betrayed him so he won't be too friendly any more if he stays in power.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 13:21 | 927838 ConfusedIdiot
ConfusedIdiot's picture

Mercury, should I hate myself for saying "Agree with you?"

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:31 | 927066 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

The exceptionalism of the American situation is that the extremist takeover happened over the course of a couple of centuries rather than all at once.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 11:05 | 927208 Mercury
Mercury's picture

A way above average performance nonetheless.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 11:11 | 927230 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

chumbawamba

"The exceptionalism of the American situation is that the extremist takeover happened over the course of a couple of centuries rather than all at once."

The US was founded by Rich White Males for Rich White Males.

Women, Native Americans, poor, Blacks and other Europeans were treated like shit. THey were less than second class citizens.

American extremism was there from the beginning. It is the ILLUSION of fairness and Democracy that has slipped over the past centuries.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 12:02 | 927472 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

This is a really dumb, simple analysis.  You entirely discount the mores and social paradigm of the era when the US was established.

Sure, it would have been nice for women, indians, the poor (or more appropriate the unlanded), blacks (i.e. slaves) and others to have been treated as Human Beings, but there wasn't an ACLU or Human Rights Watch or Amnesty International, Women's Suffrage didn't happen until a century and a half later, and ignorance still pretty much reigned the day (as it does contemporaneously).

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 14:39 | 928158 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

If they really wanted to keep it for Rich White Males, they wouldn't have revolted against the crown. In my opinion, however flawed the Constitution may be, it represented a step in the right direction. The founding fathers had the right idea, but the followthrough in the proceeding centuries has been less than stellar. The implosion we're on the verge of experiencing is in spite of the Constitution, not because of it.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:39 | 927102 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

You can see how exceptional America is (was) in this regard.

Some say it should be called Independence War and not revolution, because it was not a revolution as commonly defined.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 11:06 | 927174 Mercury
Mercury's picture

I can appreciate that distinction but I think the invention of a completely new form of government including specific and powerful protections of the individual against the sovereign/state makes it an even more valid and significant revolution than some others that are attributed the title on technical grounds alone.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 11:14 | 927245 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Mercury

"I can appreciate that distinction but I think the invention of a completely new form of government including specific and powerful protections of the individual against the sovereign/state makes it an even more valid and significant revolution than some others that are attributed the title on technical grounds alone."

Really? You believe that shit?

Once again look at how Native Americans, Blacks, the Poor and Women were treated.

History puts the lie to the US constitution and how citizens and non-citizens were treated.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 11:57 | 927417 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Things obviously could have followed a somewhat better path for the Native Americans but really, what stone age culture has fared much better this far into the modern era?  What kind of outcome do you think was actually possible aside from assimilation, migration or death?

No one wants to be a slave but in this case it's hard to see how American descendants of African-American slaves aren't in a much better position to lead fullfilling and productive lives than they otherwise would have been.

And if you had to be born poor or a disenfranchised female you'd be hard pressed to find a better environment to hope to better your condition than the USA over the last 200 years.

Besides, Americans have managed to arrange things so that today, being a nominal member of most of (certain types of poor people do not enjoy official victim status) the above groups provides certain advantages in society that remain undreamed of in most other parts of the world.

In short, the nasty bits of human affairs in American history that you cite don't make America unique - shit like that happens everywhere, all the time, always has and always will.  But the good bits of the American story are still fairly unique in the history of human civilization.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 12:04 | 927475 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

And let us not forget the concept of indentured servitude (soon to re-appear at a day labor camp near you).  Whites were "slaves" as well back then.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 12:37 | 927656 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Yes, the War of 1812 was instigated in part over the British Navy pressing Americans into service aboard it's ships.  There were also a few success stories back then of people, including blacks, buying their way out of bondage on the layaway plan.

But I think indentured servitude has already made a comeback here in the immigrant prostitution and labor markets.  Another downside of having no coherent immigration policy.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 13:40 | 927920 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Weeeeeeheeeell, let's not forget those $100K Sociology Degree student loans, >100% LTV mortgages, home equity loans and two dozen credit card indentured servants. Or that new Chevy.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 11:26 | 927305 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

I agree with you.

But the trouble is in using the same world, revolution(ary), to denominate opposite values.

The violent take down of one government for one even worse is the standard when meaning political events and it is bad (your parent post). Outside of political events, it means something good, like the creation of something better; a new form of government for example (your last post).

To a clear minded person like you, this distinction is not a problem; a mere technicality because you know what you mean when you use the words. But to most people you address, if something is revolutionary it is good even when it is bad because they never care about the distinction: it's a change and change is always good; one can only hope.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:38 | 926871 downwiththebanks
downwiththebanks's picture

Yep:  all part of the imperialist master-plan.

"All our little lackeys in the Near East, who profess absolute servility to Apartheid Israel, should erupt into food riots simultaneously and form a movement to overthrow the regime."

This is just what 'they' want!  

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:56 | 926934 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Nothing like a little blood letting to get the pulses of the "planners" going from time to time.

I wonder how this looks in the Club Of Rome model.

ORI

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:27 | 926841 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

people actually support that fuck? He has supporters that are NOT PAID?

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:46 | 926848 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

I learned everything I need to know about government from raising chickens.  Mind you, my hens live in a small townhouse and eat organic; doesn't matter because they are not free and freedom too is organic.

Now I know that I hate my masters like my chickens hate me.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:30 | 926851 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

What else could a "million man march" do after they've been pestered and pushed around by the police.

False flag ops.

Hosni is toast.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:32 | 926855 Confused
Confused's picture

False flag indeed. As I said above, the people let out of jail HAD to be part of a destabilization plan. 

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:45 | 926901 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

We the people... We alone, not the politicians and twisted elite.

This is THE change, not Obama's overused slogan.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:26 | 927027 Confused
Confused's picture

Exactly. Always has been. 

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:48 | 926907 thetruth
thetruth's picture

I was listening to A-J yesterday, and they had a protester speaking.  General opinion among the protesters seems to be that they want to avoid violence.  If we're lucky, they are all smart enough to see that the regime is trying to instigate violence with the prison breaks, false flags, and by refusing to leave.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 21:05 | 929452 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Guess they haven't read the Mahabarhata.  Krishna, arguably the Hindu god of love, urged his disciple, Arjuna to fight!

There are some things worth fighting for, things that will NOT simply be given to you!

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:31 | 926853 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

"There is no chance Mubarak can last until September, there is too much water under the bridge,” said Rime Allaf, associate fellow of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at London’s Chatham House. “The protests won’t stop until he leaves or is ousted. The opposition is clear that they want the fall of the regime, not just Mubarak.”

London’s Chatham House, also known as the Royal Institute of International Affairs, is the older sister to the American Council on Foreign Relations:

http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/about/history/

[snip]:

In 1919 British and American delegates to the Paris Peace Conference, under the leadership of Lionel Curtis, conceived the idea of an Anglo-American Institute of foreign affairs to study international problems with a view to preventing future wars. In the event, the British Institute of International Affairs was founded separately in London in July 1920 and received its Royal Charter in 1926 to become The Royal Institute of International Affairs. The American delegates developed the Council on Foreign Relations in New York as a sister institute. Both are now among the world's leading international affairs think-tanks.

 

Are you listening Hosni?

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:42 | 926883 downwiththebanks
downwiththebanks's picture

The powers-that-be are scrambling like mad for a new lackey.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:54 | 926924 bunkermeatheadp...
bunkermeatheadprogeny's picture

+1

Thats why the establishment Repubs, Dems, Tony Blair, are all in lockstep with the idea of an "orderly transition" until the September elections.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 12:48 | 927706 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

they hate it when someone else calls in the order

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 13:41 | 927927 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

It was "to go"

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 16:48 | 928585 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

yeah but too many people pulled up in the car. Didn't know you could fit that many Egyptians in a Volkswagon  

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:59 | 927153 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

This appears to be taking on the broad strokes of Iran circa 1979 redux with a dash of Nasser. The part of the Shah to be played by Mubarak and his VP henchman Soliman et al, the dreaded SAVAK.

If so, it will be a boiling peasant pot exploding with Mubarak fleeing to exile and the emergence of a pious theocratic leader from The Muslim Brotherhood in his place.

It worked before but given the well worn playbook and the compression of events accelerated by todays media and finance technology one could expect a shorter delivery schedule...perhaps 2 weeks and no later than end of February (?)

http://aangirfan.blogspot.com/2008/10/was-khomeini-agent-of-us-and-uk.html

http://aangirfan.blogspot.com/2005/11/use-of-muslim-brotherhood-by-mi6-a...

All eyes on the Brotherhood, oil futures and of course...Suez

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:41 | 926860 AssFire
AssFire's picture

This "Muslim Democracy" is set to blow up Friday after prayers.

Like I said they are not ready for democracy- Sharia Law trumps all.

In the vacuum the zealots are the new power brokers...

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:43 | 926890 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

This hasn't been priced into gold yet, but it most certainly will.

For those interested in dumping GLD, Sprott's PHYS is a good alternative.

 

We're coming after you, you corrupt evavise politicians... You will not last. Your days are numbered.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:56 | 926937 AssFire
Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:02 | 926954 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

GENIUS link - great movie

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:38 | 927097 IdiotsOutWalkin...
IdiotsOutWalkingAbout's picture

Hasn't Sprout been claiming they can't get deliveries of physical silver? What makes you think they can get their hands on physical gold to back their paper trade in that case?

I know we like Sprout better the the JP Morgue & GLD, just sayin'...

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:02 | 926953 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You really should change your name to "AssClown".

That government is neither Muslim, nor a Democracy.  You might as well call Japan a Shinto Feudal State.

The reality is that Egypt was a puppet state of Israel, and was in no way a democracy.  Nothing really "gets worse" by a revolution there, except that oppressive states like Israel and the US lose an ally, which can hardly be called a "bad thing" in my opinion.

And for those who are wondering, Israel is unassailable.  It doesn't matter if every nation that surrounds them becomes another Iran--they have access to the sea, and they have nukes on submarines.  Any serious invasion will be easily and quickly repulsed with the light of a thousand suns.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:17 | 926987 AssFire
AssFire's picture

Yes, I have heard that as well as "AssHat"

I don't think you know the context I am speaking. I am mocking those who said that this was a blossoming democracy- I say it is incompatible with Sharia.

That's cool, Friday is just a couple days away. Let's just see what the Imans call for. It is the only collective voice that keeps them together.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:56 | 927171 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Sorry, I get peevish when people lie and twist the facts to fit their own agenda, and it seemed like you were doing that.

However, it is foolish to claim that anyone is talking about Sharia law.  No-one is, except you, and other Americans with a phobia of Muslims.  It has about as much weight as the claim that Christian fundamentalism will become law in the US, or in South America.  That type of law simply doesn't work where there is a lot of capital, and in a nation that derives much of its economy from Western tourism.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 13:04 | 927762 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

It's "Imam" and how would you know about a "democracy"? Ever lived in one? And as is typical in many Islamic countries, the government has a lot of influence on Imams, even to the point of licesning and appointing them.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 13:52 | 927970 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

"as is typical in many Islamic countries, the government has a lot of influence on Imams, even to the point of licesning and appointing them"

Well, that make me feel much better about the whole thing!

We could do that too. Bodhisattva Barry could appoint a new Czar For Licesne (sic) Of Imams. A couple of deftly handled Executive Orders and voila- we've co-opted the Muslims!

Think about it...it could work.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 14:19 | 928076 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

We've enough co-opted people in this country already to worry about.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 23:52 | 928327 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 16:16 | 928497 11b40
11b40's picture

Right you are.  Saddam Hussein had no Imam problem at all.  You just have to speak to them in a language they understand.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:25 | 927029 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

tMos, MAD ring a bell? I don't think being surrounded by Nuclear wasteland and radiation winds for generations is in anyone's playbook.

All together or not at all is how I see it.

ORI

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:30 | 927053 Confused
Confused's picture

ORI, you are correct. But we cannot apply logic/reason to all situations. If given the choice I'm sure the average person (anywhere and everywhere) would choose peace over war. But those aren't the ones pulling the strings. 

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:51 | 927156 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I hate to tell you, but MAD WORKS!  If you will notice, nuclear armed Europe hasn't really seen much in the way of changes in borders since the end of WWII.  This isn't a coincidence, nor is it because they lost their appetite for war.  It's because all sides know that anyone invading either a nuclear armed nation, or an ally of a nuclear armed nation will have their invading armies vaporized in a best case scenario, or have their entire nation turned into glass in a worst case scenario.  The only real border changes that have occurred have been a result of national or imperial collapse.

Wars now only include two small nations fighting, or a nuclear power fighting a non-nuclear power.  Increase nuclear proliferation would even prevent that, as the lack of a renewed Korean War has shown us.

And FYI, Hydrogen bombs don't leave nuclear wastelands (though they do leave regular wastelands).  They produce about 3X as much radiation as a fission bomb, but they spread it out over a MUCH wider area.  Even with fission bombs, people moved right back into Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and suffered not much worse than an increased cancer rate for a couple of generations.  

Nukes have done for national security what guns have done for home security.  They are the great equalizer.  I mean, sure, it is possible to rob or kill an armed person, but it's damn risky, even if you have superior numbers and technology, especially if you know they are coming.  This was the case in Gulf War I, where US generals worried about a nuclear attack by Saddam on the desert where they were forming up their tank columns for an advance.  Had that attack occurred, US armored forces would have been wiped out, and Saddam would have been free to roll into Saudi Arabia at his leisure, barring a nuclear counterattack.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:28 | 927041 Confused
Confused's picture

Tmos FTW! 

 

its called breaking it down. 

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 11:30 | 927318 I Told YOU So
I Told YOU So's picture

sorry but this does't really make any sense, lot of good will a couple subs do when the whole of isra-hell is a radioactive pile of crap.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 16:28 | 928527 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

You're dreaming. israel knows that Iran and Syria have some serious tricks up their sleeves-like dirty radiation bombs and biochems that they will use if israel nukes them. And Iran probably already has some nukes of its own that it got from the black market. It's a war of attrition and israel is going to lose in the end.

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