A Closer Look At The Impact Of The Wheat Crisis

Tyler Durden's picture

Good thing humans don't eat or use energy or else the highly "accurate" core CPI, courtesy of the draught and harvest catastrophe in Russia, causing wheat prices to literally take off, might actually reflect reality for once. A closer look at the consequences of the grain export collapse in the third biggest exporter in the world: "Russia’s domestic prices rose even more within the last 30 days. In addition, on August 5, Russia announced a ban on grain exports through year-end, effective August 15. This should  help contain further domestic price gains, but may send global prices even higher. J.P. Morgan’s commodity team expects that any meaningful decline in prices is unlikely to occur before late 2010, but wheat prices are forecast to recede to below $6/bu in 2011, as higher prices now are likely to promote increased global planting."

From JP Morgan

 

And here's Goldman