CMA Issues Its Q4 Global Sovereign Debt Credit Risk Report

Tyler Durden's picture

All you wanted to know about why the world is bankrupt in many pretty charts.

Some findings.

Top 5 riskest countries:

  • Greece
  • Venezuela
  • Ireland
  • Portugal
  • Argentina

Top 10 least risky sovereigns:

  • Norway
  • Finland
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • USA

Most deteriorating countries in the quarter:

  • Belgium
  • Spain
  • Germany

Most improved countries in the quarter:

  • Argentina
  • Latvia
  • Abu Dhabi

Broad notes:

Greece, widening 32% in Q4, tips Venezuela off the top spot as the world’s most risky sovereign.

  • Ireland enters the top five following the bail out the its banking system and a subsequent widening of 35%.
  • Concerns that Spain has some similarities to Ireland – a debt-driven property boom bust – helped drive the cost of protection wider by 50% and into the top 10 most risky. China’s support for Spain both in terms of long-term debt holding and imports will help support one of the most important economies in the region.
  • Portugal also widened – by a more modest 22% in Q4 – but the cost of protection in Portuguese banks remains high.
  • Argentina tightened nearly 20% this quarter as it pledges to repay the Paris Club of investors.
  • Ukraine is the best yearly performer, tightening 59% on the year.
  • Iraq remains very illiquid – see special section on liquidity changes.

Full report:


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nate28jf's picture

suck on that, Denmark.

EscapeKey's picture

The latest polls in Denmark show a socialist majority, and an election is upcoming.

The socialists base their election platform on expanding public sector spending - despite a 6% deficit.

Time to short the living fuck out of Denmark.

plocequ1's picture

Yes, But Alcoas earnings are making the futures an even prettier I do like the Blue chart. It matches my car. If it weren't for that scribbling and Gibberish, this would be a very pretty chart. Rally on. The two POMO guys are on it

bunkermeatheadprogeny's picture

What is interesting, is that there is a very close correlation between financial woes and the proportion of winedrinkers in Europe and the US:






hardcleareye's picture

An interesting read.. 

They assign the USA with a 5 year Sovereign default risk of 3.6%.

Discription for methodology.."ratings are calculated using a proprietary model developed by CMA and input with (our in house data)". 

It would be interesting to know what the track record is of the model they used to generate these numbers....


Shoegazer's picture

Paying your bills with Uncle Ben's funny money doesn't qualify as a default, so I think the CMA numbers are technically correct.

bunkermeatheadprogeny's picture

Found a global wine conumption map, and it also correlates with Sout America too:

jm's picture

Sure would be nice if CMA would indicate dealer exposures.

Go Latvia !


EscapeKey's picture

Argentina may have improved, but there's fuck all chance I'd invest in those serial defaulters.

I could be put a minor speculative investment into Greek debt (they're serial defaulters as well, but have the implicit backing of the ECB), however, if I could get the actual 4.9% for 6 months. I reckon the Euro zone will stay intact for at least another 6 months.

swissinv's picture

US not risky - WTF - of course they won't default but in favor of a 100% currency haircut on treasury securities

gwar5's picture

Interesting rankings. We need more reports like so all the debt goes away

Paul Bogdanich's picture

This is almost comical.  The only reason Venezuela and Argentina are on the list at all is not because they have any serious trouble paying their bills but rather because they institute capital controls and other things like that that delay or defer payments at the option of the government.  That is very different than Greece which couldn't pay its bills if it wanted to.