CMA Issues Its Q4 Global Sovereign Debt Credit Risk Report

Tyler Durden's picture

All you wanted to know about why the world is bankrupt in many pretty charts.

Some findings.

Top 5 riskest countries:

  • Greece
  • Venezuela
  • Ireland
  • Portugal
  • Argentina

Top 10 least risky sovereigns:

  • Norway
  • Finland
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • USA

Most deteriorating countries in the quarter:

  • Belgium
  • Spain
  • Germany

Most improved countries in the quarter:

  • Argentina
  • Latvia
  • Abu Dhabi

Broad notes:

Greece, widening 32% in Q4, tips Venezuela off the top spot as the world’s most risky sovereign.

  • Ireland enters the top five following the bail out the its banking system and a subsequent widening of 35%.
  • Concerns that Spain has some similarities to Ireland – a debt-driven property boom bust – helped drive the cost of protection wider by 50% and into the top 10 most risky. China’s support for Spain both in terms of long-term debt holding and imports will help support one of the most important economies in the region.
  • Portugal also widened – by a more modest 22% in Q4 – but the cost of protection in Portuguese banks remains high.
  • Argentina tightened nearly 20% this quarter as it pledges to repay the Paris Club of investors.
  • Ukraine is the best yearly performer, tightening 59% on the year.
  • Iraq remains very illiquid – see special section on liquidity changes.

Full report: