As CMBS Delinquencies Hit All Time Record, Wall Street Looks For Greater Fools

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Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:00 | 849960 Logans_Run
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It almost sounds like a blessing, "BTFD"

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:40 | 850081 pamriallc
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JPM (and others) simply have *CLIENTS* who are now refinancing existing debt.  Not a crime.  Rates are very---- very good right now.  Shawn A. Mesaros, Pamria, LLC

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:02 | 849970 Logans_Run
Logans_Run's picture

Similar to "joy, joy, joy" from Repo Man

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:03 | 849972 Salinger
Salinger's picture

If you are not watching the House swearing in it is great  -- Pelosi is giving her farewell speech and I suspect she has structured it to make Boehner cry  as she sings the praises of his upbringing etc

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 16:04 | 850137 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

He'll do as bad as she did.  I won't say worse because you can't give a grade below an F.  It'll be a continuation of the same BS.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 00:53 | 851635 StychoKiller
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Welcome to GRIDLOCK, USA!  Population:  us!  :>(

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:04 | 849976 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

AIG Bitchez !!

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:09 | 849997 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

$182bn bailouts, bitchez!

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:05 | 849983 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

CRE is dead as online shopping will take off - no one in their right mind will want to go out to shop and brave the angry hoards - i barely enter a store anymore - the natives are already getting mean, just wait until their fiscal situation continues to deteriorate - who needs that shit.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:12 | 850005 Tyler Durden
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You are absolutely right. But didn't the ADP report just announce a 270,000 increase in service jobs, "the largest monthly increase in the history of the report"? Or is that 270,000 all in HFT-related jobs?

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:23 | 850023 ColonelCooper
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Most of these jobs are in the internet sex industry.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:54 | 850113 goldmiddelfinger
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you should know

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:55 | 850117 JLee2027
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Zing!

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 17:41 | 850447 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Rubber, meet glue.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:22 | 850025 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

cnbc of all place actually has a good article on those adp jobs, one guess is that a lot of employers keep employees on the roles through year end even though they laid them off, and adp doesn't pick up on that.

this is pure anecdote, but i do know quite a few people who were laid off in the past month, just random people i know through the gym, fellow parents i meet through the kids, etc, but it doesn't seem to me that the job situation is improving at all.

$4 gas was barely tolerable at 5% U3, at double that, this situation is going to get ugly.  people are already starting to lose it.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 00:53 | 851637 StychoKiller
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Warm up the squadrons of Piper-Cubs!  There's still plenty of IRS buildings (and other Govt agencies) -- it's a target-rich environment! :>(

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:20 | 850014 Spalding_Smailes
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Deals are getting done little by little .... A friend of mine did this deal 2 months ago. Someone was blowtorched but someone got a great deal also .... Strip mall out west.

 

 

XXXXXXXXXX----- - Please keep in mind we are under a stict confi on this deal. We just found out that the Special Servicer will engage a broker on this deal Wed of next week. The servicer will carve us out of the broker agreement, however, we would prefer if this deal doesn't go to market. We have it U/W at  a modified loan assumption amount of $3mm. The original loan amount was $6.5mm.. Is it possible for you to show it to your guys in confidence? We are showing it to two other people at this point. Don't show it to him yet. Let's talk first think in the morning. I need to talk to -xxxxxx- and -xxxxxxx- before you talk to anyone about it. We will not have much time to put in an LOI, so we will need to approach people who are familar with the -xxxxxx- market. The SS will be looking for a decent net worth..let's say $10mm, with $1mm liquid as well as being able to demonstrate local management experience. Let's talk in morning.

 

Summary and pro forma attached.

 Assumptions in the P/F

  • $15.00 / sf NNN pro forma for vacant space
  • 18% vacancy factor
  • 4% management fee

 Returns

  • 25% 5-year IRR
  • 40%+ cash-on-cash

 

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:24 | 850029 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Your friend must have balls like grapefruits or is actually Harry Wanger himself.  Every stripmall in America is either already dead or dying a slow painful death.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:39 | 850079 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

The buyer wanted the broker in on the deal for 10%. The smart money is not buying unless the guys doing the leg work also put cash on the line .They do months of research before they move in. 

 

This strip mall is located near two large retirement communities & has a large anchor store. Most of the deals 30-40 cents on the dollar. 

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:41 | 850083 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All the strip malls out here in the west I see are maybe a tattoo parlor and a payday loan advance place. Its bullshit.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 00:58 | 851644 StychoKiller
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Cash4Gold!  Exchange those PM's for worthless linen rag-paper -- what's not to like?

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:33 | 850058 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

But going shopping is the only reason why 25% of Americans ever leave their house...

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:12 | 850001 lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

Hello Moody's?

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:14 | 850006 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I hope my pension plan buys a bunch of that crap.  I will bribe the manager as much as the banks do to make sure I am exposed!

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:13 | 850007 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

So naturally, office and retail REITs will go to the moon, after Ben does a back door bailout.  Buy REITs, bitchez; flush your sanlty for good.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 16:09 | 850133 Boilermaker
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They've already soared into orbit.  They've outperformed the broader market by a country mile for weeks on end now.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:16 | 850011 ghostfaceinvestah
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sorry glitch in the matrix

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:22 | 850019 bunkermeatheadp...
bunkermeatheadprogeny's picture

Speaking of fools, I briefly thought about switching from FAZ to FAS yesterday - lost a bundle this morn and got drunk. Chart indicated a breakout. Gonna flip my silver dollar and stick with it from now on.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:22 | 850022 Duffminster
Duffminster's picture

In another typical example of orchestrated "Management Of Perception Economics" the establishment media focuses on the questionable ADP and challenger job numbers ignoring the substantial deviation with the ISM Employment Index and these terribe CMBS numbers and continuing poor housing prices along with the simmering inventory questions.  

The decline in the ISM employment index indicates that the strong ADP employment number has substantial statistical distortions and should be considered cautiously as many other factors such as falling real estate prices indicate the economy is not really recovering even under massive fiscal and monetary stimulus.

<Here is another brief article commenting on the subject

excerpt:

"...Trepp, LLC, the leading provider of CMBS and commercial mortgage information, analytics and technology to the global securities and investment management industry, released today its December 2010 Delinquency Report. This month’s report contains a special section on the Major CMBS Events of 2010 as well as Delinquency Rate and Triple A Spread charts covering the past 10 years (full report available at http://www.trepp.com).

The U.S. CMBS delinquency rate rose again in December with the percentage of loans 30 or more days delinquent, in foreclosure or REO climbing 27 basis points to 9.20%, the highest in history for U.S. commercial real estate loans in CMBS. The value of delinquent loans now exceeds $61.5 billion.

The decline in the delinquency rate in October 2010 now appears to have been a blip, as the rate has since increased by 62 basis points. December’s 27 basis point jump comes despite the fact that new issues continued to make their way into the calculation and servicers continued to resolve troubled loans. ..."

Personally, I think its much worse than that.  

Duffminster

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:25 | 850027 ghostfaceinvestah
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just wait until borders goes tits up, and barnes and noble after that.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:55 | 850116 goldmiddelfinger
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Just discovered that my local Crown Books has closed. Tears.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 16:17 | 850171 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

That should be REALLY good for Borders' stock price.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:22 | 850026 furieus
furieus's picture

Shut up and buy the fucking dip.... err top.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:28 | 850035 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Fine!  Cope or Grizz?

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:52 | 850109 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Fresh Cope.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:53 | 850088 hedgeless_horseman
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It was rather more of a shock to Winston when he discovered from some chance remark that she did not remember that four years ago, investors were to buy the fucking top. It was true that she regarded the whole recovery as a sham: but apparently she had not even noticed that the trading strategy had changed. 'I thought we'd always bought the fucking dip,' she said vaguely. It frightened him a little. The invention of the Federal Reserve's markets group dated from long before her birth, but the switchover in the telescreen's investor strategies had happened only two years ago, well after she was grown up. He argued with her about it for perhaps a quarter of an hour. In the end he succeeded in forcing her memory back until she did dimly recall that at one time buy the fucking top, not buy the fucking dip had been the CNBC telescreen's directive. But the issue still struck her as unimportant. 'Who cares?' she said impatiently. 'It's always one bloody investment strategy after another, and one knows the market is all rigged anyway.'

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:27 | 850036 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

Maybe the more Tyler posts, the better odds that gold will go up?

 

Did I mention that gold is down again today?

BUWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

 

Yeah, that's right... buy those dips....

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:53 | 850110 SheepDog-One
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Buy da top!

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 17:48 | 850471 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Says the losing loser who does nothing but lose money and croon when the best performing asset class of the last ten years has a couple of down days.

Soooo many trolls.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:29 | 850040 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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O/T but the House has a Boehner as Speaker.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 16:22 | 850178 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

As opposed to the loonie old cunt!

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:32 | 850050 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Florida is awash with zombie strip malls and 80% vacant condos, many half finished and weed grown. Looks like balde runner or something but then again that's how it looked in the mid 1970s

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:34 | 850057 sheep92
sheep92's picture

Does anyone notice that the long end of the bond market is cratering?

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:44 | 850089 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

I think the bond market has just woken to the fact that the "Tea Party" movement was actually an illusion - the new Congress has zero intention of cutting spending, but they are going to lower taxes.  Fooled again! 

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:42 | 850086 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

My God, what kind of lunatic would buy any of this toxic garbage?

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:50 | 850103 Duffminster
Duffminster's picture

Uncle Ben and the SquidFace Club?

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:54 | 850112 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Thats the only ones buyin da top...now theyre in self preservation mode.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:56 | 850121 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

No they are just hoping people don't notice the inflation that will come from making them pay for it. They are 1x into it and people notice it and they need to 4x to 5x to get back to corrupted enough to solider on.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:56 | 850120 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

you can say that again!

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:51 | 850104 Duffminster
Duffminster's picture

Uncle Ben and the SquidFace Club?

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