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Cocoa Export Ban Sends Cocoa Prices Surging, Ivory Coast Violence Expected
As we highlighted yesterday, and predicted a week ago, following the Ivory Coast's halt of cocoa exports, futures in the substance have moved to one-year highs on Monday as "ongoing political tensions in the
world's top producer escalated." The WSJ reports that "New York ICE second-month cocoa futures soared more than 4% to a
one-year high of $3,340 a metric ton. In London, front-month March
futures jumped 7% at the open to a five-month high of GBP2,307/ton
($3,692/ton)." We hope that our prediction that JP Morgan is the mastermind behind this most recent key commodity market implosion, made surely in jest, remains that way and that no cocoa ETF is currently being prepared by JPM without anyone's knowledge, until it is of course, too late.
From the WSJ, as to why yet another food price-based conflict is imminent:
On Saturday, the Central Bank of West African States forced an ally of presidential incumbent Mr. Gbagbo to resign, effectively handing the country's purse strings to Mr. Ouattara, who is recognized by most foreign countries as having won a presidential run-off at the end of November.
Dealers said investors are scrambling to take cover in the futures markets as uncertainty over supplies mounts ahead of Easter, when demand for the key chocolate ingredient is high.
"Hearing the words 'export ban' applied to the top cocoa producer has got people worried," said a London-based broker. "Everybody's trying to get some protective buying in."
Ivory Coast is the world's largest cocoa exporter, accounting for about 40% of the world markets. The cash crop is grown mainly by small-holder farmers with less than a couple of hectares of land, yet exports provide almost one-third of the country's gross domestic product. Farmers are expected to produce a bumper crop of around 1.3 million tons this year due to clement weather.
Observers now fear the current export ban could fuel a fresh wave of violence in the West African country. At least 260 people have been killed since the disputed Nov. 28 presidential vote and many in the international community now fear the country may be on the brink of a return to the civil war that ripped it apart from 2002.
Kona Haque, commodities analyst at Macquarie, said international exporters are likely to abide by Mr. Ouattara's dictat in the hope of currying favour with the future leader.
"They'll want to be on the right side of him if ultimately he's going to be the president," she said. "It all depends on how much the industry needs cocoa right now. If they don't have enough they'll find a way to get it out."
And the funny thing is that the cheap liquidity demand side speculators did not even yet enter the cocoa market. We expect that to happen soon enough.
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Now the TPTB have done it. if enough members of the fairer sex get angry, watch out.
Hell hath no fury like a woman facing higher prices for 90% dark.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/01/21/accidental-lives/
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I'm going to need something stronger for the missus...like maybe heroine.
Not a hero?
Just give some hopium and everything will be ok.
Comrads we have glorious news for you! the chocolate ration will be raised to 100 mg a week.
Wait but it was 150 last week
Report to the Ministry of 'Love' immediately after the two-minute-hate period is over.
I BET JPM IS BEHIND THIS CHOCOLAT CACAO PRICE MANIPULATION!!!
BUY PHYSICAL CHOCOLAT!!!
BEST INVESTMENT EVER!!
Rumor has it that consumption is almost as high a the production! THERE ARE ALMOST NONE LEFT IN THE VAULTS!!!
AND YES! YOU CAN EAT IT!!!!!
Watch out for those chocolate-covered tungsten bars! :>D
Still time to buy May 11 future?
BUY PHYSICAL AND KEEP IT IN YOUR POCKET!!
but dont try smuggling out the country up your ass
as long as you can keep it liquid there isn't a real problem when you store it in your ass but it doesn't guarantee a 0.999 pure form...
London trader Anthony ward started buying Cocoa in large quantities mid 2010. Then we had an election...anybody read the bio on the guy who is supposed to have won? Oh yes, he is a banker.
So now, we get this wonderful situation where the London trader Mr. Ward is able to reap a fortune on the backs of what certainly appears to be Economic Hitman 101.
The only thing driving up commodity prices are speculators armed with cheap money and super fast computers. This is causing a havoc in the lives of rest of the population and pushing them towards poverty as they can no longer afford the basic necessities of life.
Regulators are too slow to react and take ages to identify and take measures to solve the problems.
Total ban on speculation is strictly required all over the world to bring relief to the common man.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24581.html
So whos going to take the other side on hedges? The government?
F**k hedges, speculators and for that matter a large chunk of "investors". Only physical allowed in ANY (including oil bitches) commodities, period. Those of you who might fab fab about price finding or setting, UP YOURS. This market doesn't know shit about prices only huge chunks of "free moneyyy". Unless "real prices" are in the range of LD50 by the people, for the people.
"A British businessman has purchased Europe’s entire cocoa supply" British businessman Anthony Ward, 50, was revealed on Sunday to be behind the massive cocoa purchase, the Daily Telegraph reports. Mr. Ward is worth about $58-million and is the co-founder of a hedge fund that co-ordinated the sale. Mr. Ward is the former chairman of the European Cocoa Association and now owns more than 15% of the world’s cocoa supply. He made a similar deal in 2002 when he bought a huge cocoa supply and subsequently watched prices increase. His intentions for his monopoly on Europe’s cocoa supply are still unknown.
http://news.nationalpost.com/2010/07/18/europes-entire-cocoa-supply-bought-out-analysts-suspect-market-cornering/ any updates?
Right in time for Valentine's Day! -)
Just call JPM to smother the price with unbacked paper assets.
FOFOA should write something about FREECOCOA immediately.
Crash JP Morgan, buy chocolate!
We need a Max Keiser chocolate bar.
A friend of mine already made a Ron Paul chocolate coin:
http://ronpaulchocolate.com/
"When the feds come, you can eat the evidence."
NYSE:DBA is holding ~30% Cocoa futures.
Sacrificing bondholders to corner the cocoa market ...with SEC blessing.
Business as usual in our banana republic.