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Is The Collapse In FX Reserves Even More Dangerous Than The Plunge In Money Supply?

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Thu, 05/27/2010 - 11:25 | 376890 Mako
Mako's picture

The "total credit market debt" has gone negative, first time since the great depression.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/

Next report in 2 weeks.  Currenty credit is growing at a negative rate for 2009 and 2010.

Current total credit/debt Q4 2009 $52.42T down from $52.89T Q1 2009.  The fat lady is warming up. 

"The bottom line is that in attempting to fix one problem in a suddenly broken system"

There is no fix, the fix is collapse and liquidation just like every other time.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 11:52 | 376924 Duuude
Duuude's picture

Mako

Please expand on your thoughts. Deflation? Effect on Gold?

Thanx

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:09 | 376957 Mako
Mako's picture

Wild swings on all alleged asset classes... to the upside and downside. 

Eventually none of these markets will exist, production will be shutdown in mass... collapse and liquidation.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:20 | 376992 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Mako

Are you suggesting we won't even have a currency?  Can you be slightly more specific?

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:49 | 377089 Mako
Mako's picture

You use credit as money... the credit system will go poof with it the stuff you use as money goes poof.   Production and asset valuation is based a functioning credit system, no credit system = production and asset valuation nose dive.

No ATMs, no credit cards, no lines of credit, etc.

All these markets, exchanges, boards, etc will implode into a mess this time, won't be as pleasant as the last time.

 

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:40 | 377064 Duuude
Duuude's picture

Thanx Maco.

I'm looking shorter term, if you have a feel for tha progression I'd appreciate anything you may want to share about tha coming Clusterf*ck.

I expect QE Maximus, then more Deflation than at present...looking at what we have now...

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:52 | 377102 Mako
Mako's picture

Volatility short and medium term, as the system continues it's collapse.  People are running for safe, each round a chair is removed, so huge swings like we have been seeing will continue.  Eventually, there will be no musical chairs left and all you will have left is liquidation.

You haven't seen anything yet, this is still the good times.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 13:25 | 377195 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Long term: bombs and tanks.

After that it's Thunderdome!!!

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 15:33 | 377557 Mako
Mako's picture

Most likely... unless you get some people to willingly jump into the pit.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:17 | 376977 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Gold down, deflation up +-20%

But I don't think the Fed will allow that and Obumba will launche Q2 anytime soon.

Plan B is to divert the attention by a nice war or so and use that also as a excuse to do a QE.

Whatever, a QE is already arround the corner and ready to hit us in the face.

The US need inflation, and it will get inflation. Whatever it takes.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:21 | 376999 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Also, don't forget that with deflation, the US is over and out.

The $ would strenghten to much to even have a export anymore, the government debt would really get to exspensive to maintain, the working class would be wiped out...

Can't let that happen.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:36 | 376988 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

The US has just tried the biggest fiscal experiment in history and it has failed.

"The fix is collapse and liquidation just like every other time."

That kind of thinking... while technically correct is just so... well... 20th century. In the 21st century we believe in mudshots, junkshots, and coming soon to a central bank near you... Fxshots, swapshots and massive M1shots for the hotshot bigshots.

The credit destruction is real... but when asset values start heading south to the Gulf of Mexico who ya gonna call on but Uncle BB and his trusty (not Rusty...) FedCo 3000 Turbo-printer!

The dream will not be allowed to die. They will never surrender!

 

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 11:17 | 376891 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

M3 hasn't plummeted. It simply got plugged into a million different equations that won't resolve. You can't match an exponential M3 growth to linear but just barely exponential M2 and a straight flat as kansas M0.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 11:17 | 376892 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

QE to infinity

 

Ezekiel 33:6

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 11:22 | 376903 jesusfreakinco
jesusfreakinco's picture

The bottom line is that in attempting to fix one problem in a suddenly broken system, another one develops, as everything is interrelated and interconnected in the global economic system, linked up through channels of liquidity, or lack thereof.

JFC - Bingo!!!

At that point, once the Fed's actions become obvious for all to see, watch for the gold "bubble" to go exponentially parabolic.

JFC - Double Bingo!!! Cause and effect.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 11:22 | 376906 Apostate
Apostate's picture

Yay! I like money!

I love my president!

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 11:56 | 376931 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Very simple solution. QE and stimulus. Bring it on Ben. My Mac book pro
and ipad arrived. I really don't give a fuck what happens. My Toyota Corolla is all prepared with sheets and blankets and I ordered my Seed bank and generator from Alex Jones. I'm ready Ben.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 11:57 | 376933 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/money-supply-charts. These charts from the link at the end of the A E-P article are most instructive

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 11:58 | 376934 almost_have_a_name
almost_have_a_name's picture

Are we better off if the system colapses or recovers ?

 

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:07 | 376949 mikla
mikla's picture

The system will not recover.  We can talk about the many forms of system collapse.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:22 | 377005 almost_have_a_name
almost_have_a_name's picture

I'm sick of the waiting game, and I don't want the other

side to pick the date (in the dead of winter).

How do we speed it up ?

 

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:55 | 377110 bigkahuna
bigkahuna's picture

We can speed it up by first focusing on getting out of debt while simultaneously building up a non-perishable supply of food as well as a small stash of silver--probably junk silver old us coinage. Food is more important than silver though. Then make sure if you have anything left over to put it in a local and small bank or credit union. Recall that in an environment where your currency is in jeopardy, you should have a stock of food, water purification system, and an alternate energy source available. If you are ok with firearms (or not), have some kind of protection for your family-like a good shot gun and some ammunition. By the time you have all of this together, you will have sufficiently shunned the idea of giving big banks and the fed your money and if everyone did this together, it would ensure a crash pretty quick--because the federal reserve banks would become quite angry and make the crash happen.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 13:53 | 377292 Blindweb
Blindweb's picture

Also look into resilient communities; essentially increasing the self sufficiency of your community.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 13:36 | 377234 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Get everyone you know to join the Tea Party. Not for elections or anything (no point in that anymore when you have the Coast Guard telling the Press "no filming or we'll arrest you" on the beach cuz a foreign corporation sez so) but that will help get the frenzy going.

But you have to have thick skin: "Racist! Teabagger! Bush lover! Tenther! Birther! Goldbug! Idiot! Homophobe! Xenophobe! Anti-government-right-winger-Christian-thingy!"

But that's the point! Stand out there with a sign: "Down with this sort of thing!" and it can really piss people off. This sucker is out of control and MSM is pouring the gasoline. LOL!!!

Me, what am I doing? Staying far away from all that. No point anymore. Beans, bullets, bandaids.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 14:56 | 377471 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Beans, bullets, bandaids.

...and bullion!

 

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 11:58 | 376935 depression
depression's picture

I just do not like this term "double dip recession".

The pattern is not a W, it's a stair step down, an L followed by another lower L.

This is a slow rolling all consuming deflationary credit collapse and economic depression. All the hopium and cheerleading will not change this reality.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:11 | 376960 Matto
Matto's picture

Im with you. Baby boomers are exiting the workforce and taking their savings and spendings with them. Fuck all can be done about it. QEII wont reflate the credit collapse that is coming down the pipeline but it may manage to debase the decreasing money supply through a crisis of confidence just the same.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 13:14 | 377145 Greyzone
Greyzone's picture

The term you are seeking is "catabolic collapse" (Warning: PDF!). John Michael Greer proposed this theory in 2005 building on the work of Professor Joseph Tainter, whose initial theory attempted to frame all societal collapses in terms of diminishing marginal returns against increasing complexity. Tainter's theory was arguably a first solid understanding of how societies collapse but it did not quite mesh with temporal observations. Greer's work is an effort to take Tainter's theory and further adapt it to the observed behavior of past civilizations that collapsed, in order to yield a theory with some predictive powers (basic science - observe, hypothesize, test with an objective of falsifying your own theory).

There have been many attempts to explain the increase in debt and money supply over the last 40 years, but the one that comes closest to addressing this was first mentioned (to my knowledge) by Nate Hagens, and proposes that the increases in debt and money supply are an effort, using fiat money, to continue the rates of growth that occurred when human population was lower and resources were far more abundant than now.

We have not yet quite reached the point of real resource constraints biting us but we are beginning to see this as it takes more and more real energy to draw on increasingly lower quality ores, petroleum, natural gas, etc. As we approach the point where energy cost of extracting resources like oil to be used as energy sources becomes 1:1, the cost implications for everything else in society rise in response. Now the last I checked, we were somewhere between 5:1 and 10:1 in terms of energy returned versus energy cost (EROEI - Energy Returned On Energy Invested) for coal, oil, and natural gas extracted. That doesn't sound too bad except when you realize that just 70 years ago the ratio was nearly 100:1. And the change is due directly to having to drill/dig deeper into harsher environments (Deep Horizon anyone?) which themselves have higher operational costs and significantly higher dangers.

Eventually, any energy "source" which falls to 1:1 or below no longer is worth extracting for energy. That's basic physics and economics can blow its non-scientific ass all it wants but physics will win that argument every time. The longer term problem facing our civilization is a need to transition off fossil fuels (not right this second) and to replace those energy sources with energy sources that have EROEIs that are higher, if possible. Down that road is going to lie a mix of nuclear fission, nuclear fusion (maybe), solar, wind, tidal, etc. And those energy sources require higher levels of technical complexity than fossil fuels required.

So the transition has to be upwards to a higher level of social and technical complexity or we get the alternative - collapse. And right now, the vampire squid and entities like it seem more interested in ensuring we do collapse than really addressing the problems and contributing to longer term solutions. Of course the fact that we give corporations "personhood" before the law, yet corporations are legally mandated to act in ways that would mark a living breathing human being as a sociopath probably contributes to our entire social schizophrenia.

This goes back to a position I've taken for years on the internet about our future. I firmly still believe that every technical problem we currently see in front of is can be solved. The real problem is whether we will have the political and individual willpower to force change before collapse occurs. Because if we wait until after collapse occurs, we may just fall far enough down the technology tree that we can't get back to where we want to go. Sir Frederic Hoyle once remarked that technological civilization is a one-shot affair. If we blow the initial endowment of easily accessible ores and fossil fuels, those won't be replenished for millions of years. We either get this right or our entire civilization takes a step down. And right now, in every government around the world, we are twiddling our thumbs trying to preserve the status quo. Right now, more than ever in my opinion, we need less government meddling in markets precisely so the markets can send honest price signals about everything. Subsidizing anything needs to stop, including subsidizing fossil fuels. If the market price of fossil fuels were fully realized, we'd all begin to change our lifestyles pretty quick and begin to look at alternatives at the same time. But as long as we try to preserve the status quo, the market is prevented from sending the real price signals that something is amiss and needs to change.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 13:28 | 377202 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Greyzone,

Bingo..............

"And right now, the vampire squid and entities like it seem more interested in ensuring we do collapse than really addressing the problems and contributing to longer term solutions".

This has been the plan all along, if you cannot see it, go to the nearest Optometrist, asap.

We are on PURPOSE being bent over,loaded up.

Anyone who thinks this is an accident..........well, I am sorry.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 14:28 | 377404 Greyzone
Greyzone's picture

I admit to wavering between "Are they that inherently stupid?" and "Are they that inherently evil?" I suspect the truth is a mix of both of those putrid choices.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 14:58 | 377476 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Folks like you don't run for public office as a rule.

Therein lies a sad fact.

Folks like you are generally making a living, taking care of business and family, minding his own business, staying out of the limelight.  There is a social disconnect here and it's not your fault.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 17:57 | 377809 jailnotbail
jailnotbail's picture

The longer term problem facing our civilization is a need to transition off fossil fuels (not right this second) and to replace those energy sources with energy sources that have EROEIs that are higher, if possible.

Well, if not right this second then it should be the very next thing.  Actually even right this second is too late

 

How The Global Oil Watchdog Failed Its Mission

How the IEA was silenced about the future of global oil production.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article25546.htm

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:04 | 376944 Coldcall
Coldcall's picture

How long will citizens of the US, UK, EU allow their governments to piss their money down the drain, creating fake gdp growth, in order to maintain this illusion?

How depressing.

 

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:13 | 376965 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Coldcall, best I can figure it goes on until cable TV and wifi/cellular towers are shut down, then its immediately the French revolution. Until then, rally on futures, rally on...

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:25 | 377018 almost_have_a_name
almost_have_a_name's picture

The propagand machine has everyone distracted. I can't

convince my retired neighbor (WWII Navy vet) that television

is his new enemy.

 

 

 

 

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 13:28 | 377206 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

 Keep trying, some people are worth not ever giving up on...

 FTA dish and reciever setup to bring in al-jazeera and other  media no biased media LEAGALLY run on a small solar powered panel..

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:06 | 376948 Matto
Matto's picture

Fiscal infeno!

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:08 | 376952 Psquared
Psquared's picture

I work very closely with credit. If M3 is plunging it will show in credit availability, particularly if banks are trying to build their reserves and reduce credit risk. So far, from my vantage point, the same people are able to borrow money as 3 years ago, but some of the people who could borrow 3 years ago now cannot.

Ultimately, if the situation is getting worse, these events have to affect the availability of credit but so far they are not. I have not really noticed an increase in rejections which means underwriting standards have not even tightened up.

What might happen is the credit will just stop - i.e., banks will stop lending completely, but I don't think it will be sudden - although that is possible. It seems more likely to me that it will start getting tougher and "some" lenders will begin to tighten standards. I have not seen that this year at all. (From 3 years ago yes, but since January of this year, no.)

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:15 | 376971 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Banks must keep lending like a fish needs to keep moving, and they know this.  The problem is, there are not enough people who can actually pay back.  They are currently in a quandary - they are supposed to improve lending standards and increase lending, but this cannot happen.  So, they are waiting for uncle Ben to put a reassuring hand on their shoulder and say, "it's all ok, don't worry, we've got your back."

Hyperinflationary collapse, here we come.... but not for a few years yet.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:17 | 376979 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Not for a few years yet'...really how do people figure that? N Korea might lob a few nukes over the fence today, then whats that do to everyones 'Sure its all obviously collapsed today but we'll see nothing happen for 3 more years' conclusion?

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:58 | 377118 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

How would N Korea lobbing nukes be hyperinflationary?

My point is, the central bankers will do everything to prevent a deflationary collapse and because these forces are so strong, they will have to do a hell of a lot.  The problem is, it is like pulling a brick out of a wall with a piece of elastic - you pull and pull and nothing happens then, eventually, it flies out and smacks you in the face...

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:28 | 377026 Psquared
Psquared's picture

That is my guess too. We are still a few years away and there are still tricks up the sleeve. If a Black Swan comes along it may be sooner, but if things bump along like they are now my guess is 2013-2015.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 13:39 | 377236 DosZap
DosZap's picture

P,

Your correct, except that the restictions on getting credit IS being tightened (back to old stds), on home purchase.

IMHO, until the Banks STOP getting 3% return on their NOT lending, nothing changes.

Plus, and here's the (IMHO) reason we are not seeing growth, and rehiring.............

No one knows what this admin is going to do, and how it will affect them, if they can even stay in business.

Right now, ONE person employed, is having to do the work/duties, of what used to be the duties of three employees...............

Everyone I know working, is having to kill themselves with 25-30 hours worked extra per week, just to keep their positions.

Don't like it tough shit.....quit.

No one,esp business,is gong to take on debt without a workable plan, if you do not know the rules, how can you plan?.

You can't.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 18:10 | 377819 Kali
Kali's picture

Yes.  In addition, if you are miraculously able to operate a viable biz plan in this environment, you make money, which is immediately taxed and "expensed" away.  This is what has happened to me.  So, how do I plan for the future in this environment?  I don't recycle my "assets" into the system, I take them out. (beans, bullets, bullion).  I will not expand my biz until TSHTF and will be able to better operate in the "new" environment.  In other words, I will get to keep what I earn instead of giving all away to people who produce no real value to society (in fact, cause harm).  My biz plan rejects debt financing, period.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:14 | 376969 Paul Bogdanich
Paul Bogdanich's picture

The guy incorrectly attributes the first alarm to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard when the guy over at shadow stats was the first to see the trend and has been warning about it ever since.  

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:15 | 376973 Slewburger
Slewburger's picture

Anybody having trouble moving MM accounts?

Specifically former GMAC?

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 14:53 | 377458 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Define what you mean by "trouble".  Can't answer without more info.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 15:42 | 377580 Slewburger
Slewburger's picture

Referred to a technical specialist who will call within 24 hrs? (gulp)

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 19:22 | 377969 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

The money market is the heart of the M3 ponzi. It should have broken the buck and been returning 90 cents on the dollar for over a year. But they don't want people knowing it's a ponzi so at some point the "banks don't have my money" thing is going to show up in the money market and in 401k.

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