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Is The Collapse In FX Reserves Even More Dangerous Than The Plunge In Money Supply?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

By now everyone has read Ambrose Evans-Pritchard's article discussing the historic plunge in the M3, which speculates that due to the failure of attempts so far to reflate the economy, Obama is likely considering a renewed stimulus. To validate his point, Evans-Pritchard quotes Tim Congdon of International Monetary Research": "The plunge in M3 has no precedent since the Great Depression. The dominant reason for this is that regulators across the world are pressing banks to raise capital asset ratios and to shrink their risk assets. This is why the US is not recovering properly. Fiscal policy does not work. The US has just tried the biggest fiscal experiment in history and it has failed. What matters is the quantity of money and in extremis that can be increased easily by quantitative easing. If the Fed doesn’t act, a double-dip recession is a virtual certainty." SocGen's Albert Edwards chimes in with an observation from a slightly different angle, namely that the collapse of global FX reserves, whose explosion until 2007 "fuelled both global GDP growth and the credit bubble," which are simply indicative of global imbalances and are a very useful measure of total liquidity, are now plunging. This merely reinforces the deflationary pressures of the plunge in money supply, and forces the Fed into a corner from which there is no escape except by activating another multi-trillion QE program. Yet away from the US, Edwards argues that the huge imbalances within the Eurozone will serve as the seeds of its own destruction.

To quote Edwards:

One of the key drivers - some say THE key driver - of the great credit bubble was global imbalances. Large external imbalances fuel global economic growth when the surplus country intervenes to stop currency appreciation. Growth in global foreign exchange is one common measure of global liquidity. Many believe the explosion in FX reserves seen until the end of 2007 fuelled both global GDP growth and the credit bubble. The recovery in liquidity over the last year is unravelling and this may explain why risk assets are now suffering so badly.

The SocGen analyst chimes in on AE-P's earlier piece...

Monetarists have been jumping up and down about the continued weakness in global money supply measures. The well known market commentator, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, for example notes in the UK?s Daily Telegraph today that “money supply in the United States is contracting at an accelerating rate that now matches the average decline seen from 1929 to 1933, despite near zero interest rates and the biggest fiscal blitz in history” - ?link. Looking around the globe, the US is not an isolated experience.

Now I?m not a monetarist myself, but you don?'t need to be to know that money does indeed matter. And in a post bubble world where the private sector is still de-leveraging and now the public sector is trying to as well, a contraction in the money supply of this order of magnitude spells big, big deflationary trouble. Incidently Bernanke apologised on behalf of the Fed at Milton Friedman?s 90th birthday celebration for causing the Great Depression by allowing monetary growth to implode. To quote ?"I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You're right, we did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again.” ?- link. Monetarists say they are doing it again!

M3 is just the beginning. For a true picture of global liquidity, one has to look at global imbalances. And they don't paint a pretty picture.

Another key measure of liquidity we watch closely is also in rapid retreat ? namely the growth in global foreign exchange reserves (see chart below). This traditionally has a close correlation to both emerging equity market performance and commodity prices. Its retreat might help explain recent weakness in these asset classes and has broader implications.

If I have learnt one key lesson, it is that extreme imbalances have a funny habit of correcting at some point, bringing the existing consensus crashing down. For example, I remember in the mid-1990s being repeatedly savaged by clients for pointing out that Asia?s extreme current account deficits in the mid 1990s were unsustainable ?Noddynomics?. And using this analysis it was clear to me even back in early 1998 that much of Europe would suffer bubbles with strong parallels to the mid 1990s Asian crisis ? (see The Independent newspaper - link).

How have global imbalances played out in the world to date?

Many believe that the mega-external imbalances (predominately between China and the US) were in very large part responsible for inflating the global economic and market bubble. One measure of the liquidity these imbalances produce is represented by the change in foreign exchange reserves as emerging economies (generally) and China (in particular), print money to stop their exchange rates rising against the US dollar (see chart below).

After recovering last year, this key measure of global liquidity is back in rapid retreat and is closely associated with the current downturn in commodity prices and other risk assets. This might explain why the current ?correction? may be about to turn into something far bigger. One key driver in the reduction in global liquidity is the disappearance of the huge Chinese trade imbalance (see chart below).

While most commentators (including this one) focused on the vendor financing scheme that dominated economic relations between the US and China, few really focused on the huge imbalances that existed within the eurozone, mainly because they netted out to close to zero. But the current crisis in the eurozone has thrown these imbalances into sharp focus.


Make no mistake, the fiscal crisis we are seeing in the periphery is a direct result of the correction in the massive private sector deficits in these counties. The fiscal bust is directly proportional to the depth of the private sector retrenchment, which in turn is a function of the one-size-fits-all inappropriate monetary policy inflicted on them by the ECB. And these huge private sector deficits in the periphery were mirror images of similarly sized surpluses ? mainly in Germany. Germany is to the periphery what China is to the US.

 

To be sure, the transference of private sector excesses built up during the bubble directly onto the public sector is not unique to the eurozone periphery ? it is equally observable elsewhere (see below chart for the US for example). But unlike the periphery, the US and UK had control of their own monetary policy ? i.e. it was excess of their own moronic  choosing.

But one thing is clear in every nation. National income accounting identities require that the public and private sector balances must sum to equal the current account balance (again see chart above). We have articulated previously the dangers of fiscal retrenchment at a time when the private sector is still de-leveraging.

Edwards closes off by quoting Rob Parenteau:

?Rapidly cutting fiscal deficits without considering the impact of such moves on private sector financial balances is a shortsighted, if not dangerous policy direction. Sector financial balances…cannot be treated in isolation. It is an elementary fact of accounting that the private sector as a whole can only spend less than it earns if some other sector spends more than it earns. That sector has tended to be the government… Pursuing fiscal retrenchment in order to reduce government debt default risk will merely raise the odds of private sector debt defaults…The only way to avoid this outcome is if the nations undertaking fiscal retrenchment can swing their trade deficits around in a fully offsetting fashion. Otherwise, domestic income deflation is the likely result ? A return to debt deflation dynamics like those engaged after the Lehman debacle is not out of the question.?

The bottom line is that in attempting to fix one problem in a suddenly broken system, another one develops, as everything is interrelated and interconnected in the global economic system, linked up through channels of liquidity, or lack thereof. M3, global imbalances, declining wages, all these are indications that the Fed is certain to lose the war. But not the the next battle, which will be fierce: expect a massive, unprecedented, and record reflation attempt yet by the Fed and the global central banks, that will make all stimulus to date pale in contrast. At that point, once the Fed's actions become obvious for all to see, watch for the gold "bubble" to go exponentially parabolic.

 


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Thu, 05/27/2010 - 11:25 | Link to Comment Mako
Mako's picture

The "total credit market debt" has gone negative, first time since the great depression.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/

Next report in 2 weeks.  Currenty credit is growing at a negative rate for 2009 and 2010.

Current total credit/debt Q4 2009 $52.42T down from $52.89T Q1 2009.  The fat lady is warming up. 

"The bottom line is that in attempting to fix one problem in a suddenly broken system"

There is no fix, the fix is collapse and liquidation just like every other time.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 11:52 | Link to Comment Duuude
Duuude's picture

Mako

Please expand on your thoughts. Deflation? Effect on Gold?

Thanx

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:09 | Link to Comment Mako
Mako's picture

Wild swings on all alleged asset classes... to the upside and downside. 

Eventually none of these markets will exist, production will be shutdown in mass... collapse and liquidation.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:20 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Mako

Are you suggesting we won't even have a currency?  Can you be slightly more specific?

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:49 | Link to Comment Mako
Mako's picture

You use credit as money... the credit system will go poof with it the stuff you use as money goes poof.   Production and asset valuation is based a functioning credit system, no credit system = production and asset valuation nose dive.

No ATMs, no credit cards, no lines of credit, etc.

All these markets, exchanges, boards, etc will implode into a mess this time, won't be as pleasant as the last time.

 

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:40 | Link to Comment Duuude
Duuude's picture

Thanx Maco.

I'm looking shorter term, if you have a feel for tha progression I'd appreciate anything you may want to share about tha coming Clusterf*ck.

I expect QE Maximus, then more Deflation than at present...looking at what we have now...

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:52 | Link to Comment Mako
Mako's picture

Volatility short and medium term, as the system continues it's collapse.  People are running for safe, each round a chair is removed, so huge swings like we have been seeing will continue.  Eventually, there will be no musical chairs left and all you will have left is liquidation.

You haven't seen anything yet, this is still the good times.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 13:25 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Long term: bombs and tanks.

After that it's Thunderdome!!!

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 15:33 | Link to Comment Mako
Mako's picture

Most likely... unless you get some people to willingly jump into the pit.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:17 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Gold down, deflation up +-20%

But I don't think the Fed will allow that and Obumba will launche Q2 anytime soon.

Plan B is to divert the attention by a nice war or so and use that also as a excuse to do a QE.

Whatever, a QE is already arround the corner and ready to hit us in the face.

The US need inflation, and it will get inflation. Whatever it takes.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:21 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Also, don't forget that with deflation, the US is over and out.

The $ would strenghten to much to even have a export anymore, the government debt would really get to exspensive to maintain, the working class would be wiped out...

Can't let that happen.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:36 | Link to Comment ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

The US has just tried the biggest fiscal experiment in history and it has failed.

"The fix is collapse and liquidation just like every other time."

That kind of thinking... while technically correct is just so... well... 20th century. In the 21st century we believe in mudshots, junkshots, and coming soon to a central bank near you... Fxshots, swapshots and massive M1shots for the hotshot bigshots.

The credit destruction is real... but when asset values start heading south to the Gulf of Mexico who ya gonna call on but Uncle BB and his trusty (not Rusty...) FedCo 3000 Turbo-printer!

The dream will not be allowed to die. They will never surrender!

 

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 11:17 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

M3 hasn't plummeted. It simply got plugged into a million different equations that won't resolve. You can't match an exponential M3 growth to linear but just barely exponential M2 and a straight flat as kansas M0.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 11:17 | Link to Comment Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

QE to infinity

 

Ezekiel 33:6

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 11:22 | Link to Comment jesusfreakinco
jesusfreakinco's picture

The bottom line is that in attempting to fix one problem in a suddenly broken system, another one develops, as everything is interrelated and interconnected in the global economic system, linked up through channels of liquidity, or lack thereof.

JFC - Bingo!!!

At that point, once the Fed's actions become obvious for all to see, watch for the gold "bubble" to go exponentially parabolic.

JFC - Double Bingo!!! Cause and effect.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 11:22 | Link to Comment Apostate
Apostate's picture

Yay! I like money!

I love my president!

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 11:56 | Link to Comment plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Very simple solution. QE and stimulus. Bring it on Ben. My Mac book pro
and ipad arrived. I really don't give a fuck what happens. My Toyota Corolla is all prepared with sheets and blankets and I ordered my Seed bank and generator from Alex Jones. I'm ready Ben.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 11:57 | Link to Comment Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/money-supply-charts. These charts from the link at the end of the A E-P article are most instructive

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 11:58 | Link to Comment almost_have_a_name
almost_have_a_name's picture

Are we better off if the system colapses or recovers ?

 

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:07 | Link to Comment mikla
mikla's picture

The system will not recover.  We can talk about the many forms of system collapse.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:22 | Link to Comment almost_have_a_name
almost_have_a_name's picture

I'm sick of the waiting game, and I don't want the other

side to pick the date (in the dead of winter).

How do we speed it up ?

 

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:55 | Link to Comment bigkahuna
bigkahuna's picture

We can speed it up by first focusing on getting out of debt while simultaneously building up a non-perishable supply of food as well as a small stash of silver--probably junk silver old us coinage. Food is more important than silver though. Then make sure if you have anything left over to put it in a local and small bank or credit union. Recall that in an environment where your currency is in jeopardy, you should have a stock of food, water purification system, and an alternate energy source available. If you are ok with firearms (or not), have some kind of protection for your family-like a good shot gun and some ammunition. By the time you have all of this together, you will have sufficiently shunned the idea of giving big banks and the fed your money and if everyone did this together, it would ensure a crash pretty quick--because the federal reserve banks would become quite angry and make the crash happen.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 13:53 | Link to Comment Blindweb
Blindweb's picture

Also look into resilient communities; essentially increasing the self sufficiency of your community.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 13:36 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Get everyone you know to join the Tea Party. Not for elections or anything (no point in that anymore when you have the Coast Guard telling the Press "no filming or we'll arrest you" on the beach cuz a foreign corporation sez so) but that will help get the frenzy going.

But you have to have thick skin: "Racist! Teabagger! Bush lover! Tenther! Birther! Goldbug! Idiot! Homophobe! Xenophobe! Anti-government-right-winger-Christian-thingy!"

But that's the point! Stand out there with a sign: "Down with this sort of thing!" and it can really piss people off. This sucker is out of control and MSM is pouring the gasoline. LOL!!!

Me, what am I doing? Staying far away from all that. No point anymore. Beans, bullets, bandaids.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 14:56 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Beans, bullets, bandaids.

...and bullion!

 

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 11:58 | Link to Comment depression
depression's picture

I just do not like this term "double dip recession".

The pattern is not a W, it's a stair step down, an L followed by another lower L.

This is a slow rolling all consuming deflationary credit collapse and economic depression. All the hopium and cheerleading will not change this reality.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:11 | Link to Comment Matto
Matto's picture

Im with you. Baby boomers are exiting the workforce and taking their savings and spendings with them. Fuck all can be done about it. QEII wont reflate the credit collapse that is coming down the pipeline but it may manage to debase the decreasing money supply through a crisis of confidence just the same.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 13:14 | Link to Comment Greyzone
Greyzone's picture

The term you are seeking is "catabolic collapse" (Warning: PDF!). John Michael Greer proposed this theory in 2005 building on the work of Professor Joseph Tainter, whose initial theory attempted to frame all societal collapses in terms of diminishing marginal returns against increasing complexity. Tainter's theory was arguably a first solid understanding of how societies collapse but it did not quite mesh with temporal observations. Greer's work is an effort to take Tainter's theory and further adapt it to the observed behavior of past civilizations that collapsed, in order to yield a theory with some predictive powers (basic science - observe, hypothesize, test with an objective of falsifying your own theory).

There have been many attempts to explain the increase in debt and money supply over the last 40 years, but the one that comes closest to addressing this was first mentioned (to my knowledge) by Nate Hagens, and proposes that the increases in debt and money supply are an effort, using fiat money, to continue the rates of growth that occurred when human population was lower and resources were far more abundant than now.

We have not yet quite reached the point of real resource constraints biting us but we are beginning to see this as it takes more and more real energy to draw on increasingly lower quality ores, petroleum, natural gas, etc. As we approach the point where energy cost of extracting resources like oil to be used as energy sources becomes 1:1, the cost implications for everything else in society rise in response. Now the last I checked, we were somewhere between 5:1 and 10:1 in terms of energy returned versus energy cost (EROEI - Energy Returned On Energy Invested) for coal, oil, and natural gas extracted. That doesn't sound too bad except when you realize that just 70 years ago the ratio was nearly 100:1. And the change is due directly to having to drill/dig deeper into harsher environments (Deep Horizon anyone?) which themselves have higher operational costs and significantly higher dangers.

Eventually, any energy "source" which falls to 1:1 or below no longer is worth extracting for energy. That's basic physics and economics can blow its non-scientific ass all it wants but physics will win that argument every time. The longer term problem facing our civilization is a need to transition off fossil fuels (not right this second) and to replace those energy sources with energy sources that have EROEIs that are higher, if possible. Down that road is going to lie a mix of nuclear fission, nuclear fusion (maybe), solar, wind, tidal, etc. And those energy sources require higher levels of technical complexity than fossil fuels required.

So the transition has to be upwards to a higher level of social and technical complexity or we get the alternative - collapse. And right now, the vampire squid and entities like it seem more interested in ensuring we do collapse than really addressing the problems and contributing to longer term solutions. Of course the fact that we give corporations "personhood" before the law, yet corporations are legally mandated to act in ways that would mark a living breathing human being as a sociopath probably contributes to our entire social schizophrenia.

This goes back to a position I've taken for years on the internet about our future. I firmly still believe that every technical problem we currently see in front of is can be solved. The real problem is whether we will have the political and individual willpower to force change before collapse occurs. Because if we wait until after collapse occurs, we may just fall far enough down the technology tree that we can't get back to where we want to go. Sir Frederic Hoyle once remarked that technological civilization is a one-shot affair. If we blow the initial endowment of easily accessible ores and fossil fuels, those won't be replenished for millions of years. We either get this right or our entire civilization takes a step down. And right now, in every government around the world, we are twiddling our thumbs trying to preserve the status quo. Right now, more than ever in my opinion, we need less government meddling in markets precisely so the markets can send honest price signals about everything. Subsidizing anything needs to stop, including subsidizing fossil fuels. If the market price of fossil fuels were fully realized, we'd all begin to change our lifestyles pretty quick and begin to look at alternatives at the same time. But as long as we try to preserve the status quo, the market is prevented from sending the real price signals that something is amiss and needs to change.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 13:28 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

Greyzone,

Bingo..............

"And right now, the vampire squid and entities like it seem more interested in ensuring we do collapse than really addressing the problems and contributing to longer term solutions".

This has been the plan all along, if you cannot see it, go to the nearest Optometrist, asap.

We are on PURPOSE being bent over,loaded up.

Anyone who thinks this is an accident..........well, I am sorry.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 14:28 | Link to Comment Greyzone
Greyzone's picture

I admit to wavering between "Are they that inherently stupid?" and "Are they that inherently evil?" I suspect the truth is a mix of both of those putrid choices.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 14:58 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Folks like you don't run for public office as a rule.

Therein lies a sad fact.

Folks like you are generally making a living, taking care of business and family, minding his own business, staying out of the limelight.  There is a social disconnect here and it's not your fault.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 17:57 | Link to Comment jailnotbail
jailnotbail's picture

The longer term problem facing our civilization is a need to transition off fossil fuels (not right this second) and to replace those energy sources with energy sources that have EROEIs that are higher, if possible.

Well, if not right this second then it should be the very next thing.  Actually even right this second is too late

 

How The Global Oil Watchdog Failed Its Mission

How the IEA was silenced about the future of global oil production.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article25546.htm

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:04 | Link to Comment Coldcall
Coldcall's picture

How long will citizens of the US, UK, EU allow their governments to piss their money down the drain, creating fake gdp growth, in order to maintain this illusion?

How depressing.

 

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:13 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Coldcall, best I can figure it goes on until cable TV and wifi/cellular towers are shut down, then its immediately the French revolution. Until then, rally on futures, rally on...

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:25 | Link to Comment almost_have_a_name
almost_have_a_name's picture

The propagand machine has everyone distracted. I can't

convince my retired neighbor (WWII Navy vet) that television

is his new enemy.

 

 

 

 

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 13:28 | Link to Comment silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

 Keep trying, some people are worth not ever giving up on...

 FTA dish and reciever setup to bring in al-jazeera and other  media no biased media LEAGALLY run on a small solar powered panel..

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:06 | Link to Comment Matto
Matto's picture

Fiscal infeno!

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:08 | Link to Comment Psquared
Psquared's picture

I work very closely with credit. If M3 is plunging it will show in credit availability, particularly if banks are trying to build their reserves and reduce credit risk. So far, from my vantage point, the same people are able to borrow money as 3 years ago, but some of the people who could borrow 3 years ago now cannot.

Ultimately, if the situation is getting worse, these events have to affect the availability of credit but so far they are not. I have not really noticed an increase in rejections which means underwriting standards have not even tightened up.

What might happen is the credit will just stop - i.e., banks will stop lending completely, but I don't think it will be sudden - although that is possible. It seems more likely to me that it will start getting tougher and "some" lenders will begin to tighten standards. I have not seen that this year at all. (From 3 years ago yes, but since January of this year, no.)

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:15 | Link to Comment A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Banks must keep lending like a fish needs to keep moving, and they know this.  The problem is, there are not enough people who can actually pay back.  They are currently in a quandary - they are supposed to improve lending standards and increase lending, but this cannot happen.  So, they are waiting for uncle Ben to put a reassuring hand on their shoulder and say, "it's all ok, don't worry, we've got your back."

Hyperinflationary collapse, here we come.... but not for a few years yet.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:17 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Not for a few years yet'...really how do people figure that? N Korea might lob a few nukes over the fence today, then whats that do to everyones 'Sure its all obviously collapsed today but we'll see nothing happen for 3 more years' conclusion?

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:58 | Link to Comment A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

How would N Korea lobbing nukes be hyperinflationary?

My point is, the central bankers will do everything to prevent a deflationary collapse and because these forces are so strong, they will have to do a hell of a lot.  The problem is, it is like pulling a brick out of a wall with a piece of elastic - you pull and pull and nothing happens then, eventually, it flies out and smacks you in the face...

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:28 | Link to Comment Psquared
Psquared's picture

That is my guess too. We are still a few years away and there are still tricks up the sleeve. If a Black Swan comes along it may be sooner, but if things bump along like they are now my guess is 2013-2015.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 13:39 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

P,

Your correct, except that the restictions on getting credit IS being tightened (back to old stds), on home purchase.

IMHO, until the Banks STOP getting 3% return on their NOT lending, nothing changes.

Plus, and here's the (IMHO) reason we are not seeing growth, and rehiring.............

No one knows what this admin is going to do, and how it will affect them, if they can even stay in business.

Right now, ONE person employed, is having to do the work/duties, of what used to be the duties of three employees...............

Everyone I know working, is having to kill themselves with 25-30 hours worked extra per week, just to keep their positions.

Don't like it tough shit.....quit.

No one,esp business,is gong to take on debt without a workable plan, if you do not know the rules, how can you plan?.

You can't.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 18:10 | Link to Comment Kali
Kali's picture

Yes.  In addition, if you are miraculously able to operate a viable biz plan in this environment, you make money, which is immediately taxed and "expensed" away.  This is what has happened to me.  So, how do I plan for the future in this environment?  I don't recycle my "assets" into the system, I take them out. (beans, bullets, bullion).  I will not expand my biz until TSHTF and will be able to better operate in the "new" environment.  In other words, I will get to keep what I earn instead of giving all away to people who produce no real value to society (in fact, cause harm).  My biz plan rejects debt financing, period.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:14 | Link to Comment Paul Bogdanich
Paul Bogdanich's picture

The guy incorrectly attributes the first alarm to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard when the guy over at shadow stats was the first to see the trend and has been warning about it ever since.  

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:15 | Link to Comment Slewburger
Slewburger's picture

Anybody having trouble moving MM accounts?

Specifically former GMAC?

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 14:53 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Define what you mean by "trouble".  Can't answer without more info.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 15:42 | Link to Comment Slewburger
Slewburger's picture

Referred to a technical specialist who will call within 24 hrs? (gulp)

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 19:22 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

The money market is the heart of the M3 ponzi. It should have broken the buck and been returning 90 cents on the dollar for over a year. But they don't want people knowing it's a ponzi so at some point the "banks don't have my money" thing is going to show up in the money market and in 401k.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:18 | Link to Comment oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

nothing wrong here, move on, move on

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:20 | Link to Comment Paul Bogdanich
Paul Bogdanich's picture

"At that point, once the Fed's actions become obvious for all to see, watch for the gold "bubble" to go exponentially parabolic."

 

I keep warning on this.  If gold goes parabolic they will merely change the rules mid-stream and outlaw physical demand for settlement and make you take the money equivalent.  If they get really nasty which they might they could also restrict physical settlement of pre-existing contracts.  These guys will stop at nothing, they are rutheless and they have the political power (the proud owners of 41 Senators and a President) to do it. 

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:27 | Link to Comment bruce wayne
bruce wayne's picture

I like AE-P a lot.  He is so close to being right but he just can't get over the hump.  Of course the problem is that the money supply is rapidly shrinking, the ability of everyday Americans who are unemployed, underemployed, or underwater on their mortgage to take on credit is zero.  And it should be that way.  When things go bust, there aren't very many loans to make.  This is not changed by pursuing a Friedmanite blitzkrieg of printing.  That money still has nowhere to go to.  It will get pumped into liquid stocks, bonds, and commodities like we have now and when the underlying economy destroys evermore wealth because asset values (what we can afford to pay for houses and cars without access to credit) continue to decline we will get panics and crashes (see performance of oil or copper over the past month).  20% drops in weeks is not a healthy market.  The value of these commodities never should have gotten that high.  The only true answer is to acknowledge the mountains of bad debt and let things collapse.  Pritchard will get to the default truth eventually...he was originally a big proponent of bailing out Greece.  Not so much anymore (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100004699/the-imf-should-impose-default-on-greece-to-end-the-charade/). 

He gets it on the fiscal side of things.  Debt problems cannot be solved by more debt.  Everyone messed up big time, the only true solution to that is for us to take our medicine.  That will hurt.  Huge salary, benefit, and pension cuts for public employees, especially at the state level.  Not to mention elimination of redundant and useless jobs in the government sector (federal budget needs to return to around $1.8T, currently at $3.7T).  Lots of bankruptcies (bye bye GM, GE and Chrysler), and bank failures (see ya Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, Wells Fargo/Wachovia, and probably Morgan Stanley and/or Goldman Sachs).  Many people will get completely wiped out financially, especially those who are heavily invested in property.  Most families will end up way underwater on their mortgage.  Of course there are great positives in this too.  People my age will actually be able to afford a starter home.  Rather than buying government debt that goes to inefficient federal budgets and bailouts (i.e. throwing good money into black holes) we can return interest rates to normal levels and reward savers, rather than make purely short term stock picks trying to profit on rumor or arbitrary government policy and "momentum," long term investment based on strong company fundamentals (value investing) can return and allocate resources properly.  Taxes can remain low which allows the productive to retain the fruits of their labor.  Red tape, bureaucratic overreach, and endless "process" will give way to innovation, rather than saying those who made mistakes are "too big to fail" we can say those who did things right should be the role models for future prosperity.  It may shock people but the US didn't become the world's superpower because of the Department of Education, we changed the world in just 225 years because of freedom.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:40 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

I would love to share your optimism as to how this unfolds.  Unfortunately, I think there is a miserable X number of years in between.  Perhaps something similar to the years between 1929 and 1945... and the couple of bombs that wrapped that one up... far too many people have those now.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:37 | Link to Comment bob resurrected
bob resurrected's picture

Dollar supply is evaporating faster than the Fed can print them. Not so in the Euro, yet.

https://stats.ecb.europa.eu/stats/download/bsi_ma_flows/bsi_ma_flows/bsi...

Strong $. Deflation.

It is my opinion that our Uncle Ben is trying a controlled deflation, not reflation, to avoid catastrophic collapse. Not that it will necessarily work.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 19:26 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Uncle ben is trying to get the rich people in hard assets and hide all the poor people in money which he will hugely inflate.

There never is any deflation. It's the biggest bullshit fable story you've ever heard. It never hits anything that means a goddamn thing to anyone. When the market crashed houses deflated, brand new cars bought on ponzi stock market money deflated. Not one goddman thing that doesn't belong to the uber wealthy class or the things people bought with ponzi deflated. So unless you happen to have "For Crusies only" printed on your money it's not going to fucking deflate.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:40 | Link to Comment Wynn
Wynn's picture

I love a good deflationary death spiral story with my morning coffee.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 12:54 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

I'm going to repeat my contention regarding simultaneous deflation and inflation in the current global economy as a direct result of loose monetary policy in the midst of a debt glut. 

Simply stated, the prevailing wind is deflation. Assets find themselves horrifically overpriced in relation with incomes which have deflated for over 30 years. Without ever increasing debt and artificial, central-bank engineered inflation, prices are unsustainable. Add to that the now obvious employment deflation due to insufficient job creation following recessions since 1990-1, with the last expansion (2002-7) not even fully replacing jobs lost during the prior recession. The final deflationary force is debt deflation with attendant balance sheet damage which may take decades to repair a la Japan. 

However ZIRP, QE and other appendages of loose monetary policy are abetting inflation IN ALL THE WRONG PLACES. Take a look at crude oil as a perfect example. Despite a record glut and diminished final demand prices remain stubbornly high, inching back toward records. Same applies to almost all raw materials and food. Certain areas of the economy have become immune to the laws of supply/demand. 

Simply stated we are in a trap. Massive deflation can not be short circuited without causing massive misallocations of artificial liquidity. A double whammy of deflation and inflation. THis sets up a viscous cycle whereby more easy money will simply accentuate the double whammy, raising the cost of living and doing business without adequately preventing deflation. More QE: trouble ahead. In this situation it will simply accelerate unemployment, lower the standard of living and reduce the relative value of paper assets. 

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 13:15 | Link to Comment Peak Everything
Peak Everything's picture

I agree with you. But I think of it in a different way. When a loan is made the future wealth that will be created by the loan is recognized and new money equal to the value of the loan is created. Money and wealth increased together so everything is ok. Now if the loan defaults the future wealth is wiped out as is the money that was created by the loan. Again, everything in balance. If QE is applied to try to offset defaults, then new money in excess of physical wealth is created. This means everything purchased with credit that defaults falls in price (homes for example) and everything not purchased with credit (food and energy for example) goes up in price.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 15:12 | Link to Comment fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

100% agree with you. With reflation everything on credit falls(Homes, cars, College Fees,..), but those assets that are not on credit(Oil, Gold, metals, Food) go up.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 13:28 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

That ongoing buying support I detected has morphed into a rally...

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 13:34 | Link to Comment ThreeTrees
ThreeTrees's picture

"Pray for blood

Pray for the cleansing
Pray for the flood
Pray for the end of this nightmare
This lie of a life can as quickly as it came dissolve

We seek only reprieve
And welcome the darkness
The myth of a meaning, so lost and forgotten

Take hold of my hand
For you are no longer alone
Walk with me in hell

Pray for solace
Pray for resolve
Pray for a savior
Pray for deliverance
Some kind of purpose, a glimpse of a light in this void of existence

Oh...
Now witness the end of an age
Hope dies in hands of believers
Who seek the truth in the liar's eyes

Take hold of my hand
For you are no longer alone
Walk with me in hell"

 

Walk With Me In Hell - Lamb of God

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 14:12 | Link to Comment steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

Watching the hard currency in action. Want dollars? Sell something!

Don't have anything productive to sell (because the input costs are too high)?

Whaddya have? Treasuries, bunds, gilts, gold, stocks ... after 69 years of credit expansion softening currencies and 'buying opportunities' nobody in the markets today can recognize the turn of events. We have all been shifted (shafted?) into the 'sell' mode from the 'buy'.

If you don't have anything to sell then you are SOL.

Sixty- nine years of credit and business expansion equals long- term inflation. Nobody recognizes deflation because the old traders that had first hand experience are all dead. We now endure the hard currency, credit contraction and the need to sell into markets that are gorged with sellers of all stripes.

The so- called 'green shoots' were nothing more than carefully stage- managed selling for the benefit of banks and Wall Street insiders who have been allowed to 'cash out'. The Fed knows the score, despite the propaganda and the gold 'talk' the only market that matters is for commodity cash dollars. 

And the only trade the matters is dollar/oil. High and increasing real crude prices are making the dollar a proxy for the oil commodity itself as a speculation toy, rather than for the world's business that was - once upon a time - leveraged from oil. The resulting dollar is a defacto hard currency backed by oil, exchangeable on demand for a valuable physical good.

What happens next? Depends how credit/oil leveraged your counterparty is. If leveraged to the max, that party will be force by margin to sell whatever he- she- or it can, including gold, silver, real estate, yachts, high performance automobiles, airplanes (and airlines), stocks, bonds ... oh yeah. Treasuries will go into the furnace, eventually. The great 'wealth' sucking sound represents a massive currency trap that will dwarf any ability of the Fed to print its way out of this. The same entities that are desperate for Fed cash are those who are first in line to obtain it.

Currency traps: this in the LA Times (and noted by Michael Pettis):

Taxi drivers boast of owning multiple flats for investment. Billboards hawk developments with names such as Villa Glorious and Rich Country. Frenzied crowds pack sales events with bags of cash, buying units that exist only on blueprints. Average home values in Hefei soared 50% last year.

China's real estate rush, once confined to a handful of leading cities, has spilled into the hinterlands with a ferocity reminiscent of American expansion into exurbs like the Inland Empire.

In a country that economists say is treading dangerously close to a full-blown property bubble, Hefei represents more evidence of China's headlong embrace of housing to power economic growth.

Bags of cash go in and nothing returns but crumbling concrete in the middle of nowhere; there are a lot of no- places in the fake world we have created for ourselves for money/currency to disappear, there is no need for the currency itself to dissapate. It has but to disappear from circulation into the maw of zombie banks and 'institutions'.

A lot of this was covered HERE back in November:

Nobody listens to me, I'm an idiot! Another crash is going to take place real soon. Can I make myself any clearer? Close your dollar- short positions now!

You were warned.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 14:17 | Link to Comment Mark Beck
Mark Beck's picture

Who is rapidly cutting fiscal expenditures? Not Obama. The Administration and congress has taken no action to control spending at all. The only grand stand we saw was a congressman trying to solve the fiscal problem through ending unemployment, when we could easily have chopped the military budget.

---------

"Obama is likely considering a renewed stimulus."

Yes we know, but ARRA should be in its prime, a lot of funds need to be released, but some how it is not able to foster growth. Why? Perhaps they should try and find out what is wrong with ARRA, before trying ARRA2.

What would a 2nd stimulus do that ARRA is not, or cannot in CY2010?

My answer:

Bailout the states.

But how will the money used to pay state prior (and some would say bad) debts, stimulate growth? How will compensating for poor oversight of state finance foster growth?

Mark Beck

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 14:28 | Link to Comment bull-market_3.0
bull-market_3.0's picture

something seems wrong about the Global FX Reserve vs CRB chart.

From 2009 - 2010, if I remember correctly Zinc, Copper, Nickle etc. all jump dramatically at the end of 2009, yet the chart appears to show a flattening of the prices...

Also the IMF releases COFER (currency consumption of official fx reserves) and it doesn't seem to correspond to the above graph. Can anyone verify that graph?

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 15:36 | Link to Comment Southern Belle
Southern Belle's picture

 Their goal is one world government and a one world financial system. The world leaders speak of it constantly - H.W. Bush mentioned the New World Order over 200 times! Ultimately, their goal is a cashless society via a microchip. But things will not go smoothly for them or us as we bump along this road.

James 5: 1-6 NIV edition

Now listen, you rich people, weep and wail because of the misery that is coming upon you. Your wealth has rotted, and moths have eaten your clothes. Your gold and silver are corroded. Their corrosion will testify against you and eat your flesh like fire. You have hoarded wealth in the last days. Look! The wages you failed to pay the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out aginst you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord Almighty. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves in the day of slaughter.You have condemned and murdered innocent men, who were not opposing you.     

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 16:52 | Link to Comment morusth
morusth's picture

The title of this - very interesting - contribution is somewhat misleading. The data displayed by the charts does not show a reduction (let alone a "collapse") of the fx reserves, but mereley a reduction of the fx reserves' growth rate. According to that data, a reduction of the fx reserves occured indeed during the crash 2008/2009, but not (yet) now.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 22:39 | Link to Comment LetUsHavePeace
LetUsHavePeace's picture

 

Professor Eichengreen calculates that the share of foreign exchange in global monetary reserves fell from 37 per cent at the end of 1928 to a mere 11 per cent by the end of 1931.  He blames the collapse in world trade that occurred on the "fetters" of the gold standard.  Those of us nostalgic for the policies of the era between the Resumption Act and the adoption of the Federal Reserve Act think Barry the Eich has it bas-ackwards.  Central banks/national treasuries began to hoard gold precisely because they could no longer trust their counter-parties not to devaluate.  The literal ruin of World War I was the cause of Europe's last great default; the current crisis is, by comparison, a minor difficulty in terms of treasure wasted and human misery.  WW I destroyed the mechanisms of private adjustment that had allowed countries around the world to have a fixed exchange rate yet adjust to variations in the terms of trade.  International trade bills were discounted by private counter-parties without regard to domestic money market rates; like bank notes in the United States before the Civil War a trade bill would be discounted to reflect the relative soundness of the counter-party as a private enterprise and the solvency of the counter-party's bank.  Worries about "the Argentine" would be reflected in the extent to which its beef exporters' trade bills were marked down before they were paid.  Contrary to what "we all know" from Professor Kindleberger's work, a country's trade could remain unaffected even as some of its domestic banks were undergoing a crisis of default.  The true folly of the Federal Reserve Act was that it tied international trade to domestic banking and made central banks/national Treasuries the preferred intermediary for all transactions - private and public.  When Walter Bagehot wrote that the Bank of England knew that it could draw gold from the moon if it set its interest rate high enough, he was presuming that Money - specie - would be in private hands.  In an age when Money itself is only another form of credit there is no reason to even think of going to the moon.  

 

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