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Collapse In Tax Withholdings Refutes Improvements In Either Unemployment Or Corporate Profitability
Even as the BLS and the administration are trying to cover up the real state of unemployment affairs using assorted semantic gimmicks of just what it means to be unemployed, and as companies provide adjusted EPS numbers, while actual earnings continue to collapse, the true barometer of spending, provided by the Financial Management Service, tax withholdings (net of refunds), continues to paint the truest picture of just what is really happening with both America's consumer and the corporate world. And it ain't pretty. On a rolling 12 month basis, individual tax withheld has dropped by nearly 8% YoY, from $1.42 trillion to $1.31 trillion, while company witholdings are down a whalloping 64%, from $274 billion to just under $100 billion! This is money that will never be used to pay down the skyrocketing US deficit, because both the US consumer and average US company are simply not collecting the required cash to line the Treasury's pockets with the one traditional way to pad the deficit: taxes. Expect much, much, much more debt issuance in America's short, medium and long-term future.
Reader Michael provides some perspective on the above data:
A perspective on the level of US unemployment is not whether someone is employed or partly employed (and varying obtuse definitions) but the level of wages being generated by the consumers. Only wages pay the bills (and generate economic activity), not employment definitions. An insight into National wages is the daily (cash) tax collections published by the Financial Management Service. The rolling 12 months figures show a consistent decline, with Nov 2009 showing a 7.6% decline from Nov 2008. Drilling down into actual monthly figures does not indicate any trend change. The rolling 12 Month Company tax payments shows a 63.95% decline to Nov 2009. Monthly net collections again show no change in trend, with the month to 4th December showing a further refund of $14 Billion.
And even though we missed the President in his daily address to the nation earlier, we hope this a topic he will bring up tomorrow or later this afternoon, whichever comes earliest in his next scheduled TV appearance.
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"Expect much, much, much more debt issuance in America's short, medium and long-term future."
Gold. Get it while it's still legal.
And hide it real well for when they come to take it away.
When they confiscate just give them tungsten. Tell them thats what you bought.
ROTFLMFAO! But seriously man you're spot on. Something tells me there will be a huge demand for counterfeit "tungsten-gold"...
They're not going to come take it away when that day comes. They are going to make YOU bring it to them.
yeh I'll bring it to them. Gold is more dense than lead and I reload my own ammo. They can have all the .45 and .357 caliber "travel size" ingots they want.
Chigurh: I know something better.
Wells: What's that.
Chigurh: I know where it's going to be.
Wells: And where is that.
Chigurh:It will be brought to me and placed at my feet.
No Country For Old Men
Just call Jorge. He got one of those gold plating machines to gold plate rims and grills for peoples civics. He'll hook ya up. LOL
I've no doubt these numbers are correct but I would like to verify them for myself and see what other data is available from the same source.
Does anyone have a line to the FMS web page where this data is available, or anywhere else?
I found the web site here -
http://fms.treas.gov/dts/index.html
But cannot find this particular data.
Any assistance greatly appreciated for a relative newby to the scene of the fed wreck.
Paranoid and racist. Nice!
Grow a sense of humor, embrace political incorrectness, & then try to get over yourself.
Ok since I get to be racist. Everybody kill whitey above me!!!!! LOL
Damn harvey got in the way.
KILL OTHER WHITEY 2 ABOVE ME!!!
When they confiscate just give them tungsten. Tell them thats what you bought.
That is absolutely brilliant!
Forget gold for the moment. Buy Smith & Wesson.
The stock or the product? :) This could be the ideal example of the rather meaningful difference between "paper" and "physical."
lol...I'm gonna use that one next time one of the TF fiat bull madmaxers or Douchinger starts talking about how we should load up on weaponry.
"Don't have to, I have tons of S&W stock in my trading account"
Both!!! The stocks been a big winner the last year! The physical will be a great investment for the future!
Doing my best Chumba-wumba impression
.357 bitches
You'll need some nickel plated armor piercers for that...
"Confiscated for the greater good" along with that samich your eatting..
And Ruger, and Colt, and Springfield Armory, and Winchester...
And don't forget mossburg, ammo and extra clips!!!
Hmmm, Moss"burg", and extra clips. Unless you're some Garand or SKS-wielding fiend, I have a feeling I should leave the range when you arrive.
I have clips, but am not a fiend.
OK, I'm old. Sue me.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M1_Garand_rifle
Have 2 Garands...love the sound they make when the last round is fired. Have been practicing making that sound with an empty clip so the bad guys will think I am reloading. Surprise surprise!
Spent 2 weekends doing Appleseed...now that is some hardcore fun! With the bonus being that I shoot a whole lot better now. But bring lots of ammo. Or better bring a 10/22 with lots of .22 ammo. The 30-.06 will wear you thin after 400 rounds...
Great program! Spent a lot of great times behind a garand.
heh...nah the Garand isn't that loud. The Ptr-91 with the 16" barrel on the other hand....
You should hear (really, feel) a POF-308 with a 14.5" barrel and a permanent muzzle brake. It's more like an area weapon than a rifle.
I don't miss the PTR I once had. It sends the brass into orbit, possibly even past escape velocity. Also not sure how HK invented sights that are hard to use even in slow-fire at a benchrest. Give me a FAL or M1A any day...
You mean Mossberg?
This, incredibly ridiculous gun, is what resides next to my Sig Sauer.
Again, ridiculous, I say.
http://www.gunandgame.com/forums/attachments/mossberg/19195d1235967090-where-find-500-roadblocker-muzzle-brake-50591.jpg
Bust down doors much?
I think he's a serial killer from Texas with a bad haircut and a penchant for coin flips.
Last I checked, Springfield Armory was not publicly traded, and Winchester is simply a brand name of FN Herstal (any more).
Colt is approaching monoline status with only three real product lines, none of them very diverse: AR-15 types, 1911s, and SAA revolvers. I don't foresee an explosion in demand for the latter.
Ruger has been a good bet along with S&W.
Gold? Check.
Lead? Check.
Any other precious metals I should have on hand?
Silver no doubt!
I've given this some thought, the best thing you can do with your gold is melt it into crosses. When they come to take your gold, tell them you have nothing but these (christian) religious artifacts that are protected by the 1st amendment. The 1st amendment seems to be the best place for the (christian) individual to hide. Maybe someone will start minting 1 ounce apocalypse crosses now.
I think that's a terrific idea.
Nah projectile castings might indeed be the way to go. When Obama signs at Copenhagen we'll soon no longer have those pesky Bill of Rights protections... assuming a complicite Congress backs him. This way you can get a little satisfaction as you comply with the demand to transfer your PMs over to big brother. It's a whole new take on wealth redistribution. Just kidding of course. (says aloud) I AM NOT ADVOCATING VIOLENCE.
"Even those who arrange and design shrubberies
are under considerable economic stress in this
period in history."
Apparently governments are too!
But unlike you and me they have access to "money" created out of thin air.
When you create a competitive economic climate and reserve the finest tactics solely for yourself it makes life pleasant and full of ease doesn't it?
Don't remember that quote from Monty Python's Holy Grail.
TBTF's are the Knights who say "ni!"
"Nuuu!?"
It's going to take longer than most people expect but sooner or later, the rabbit (the Fed and Gvt) will no longer be able to pull tricks out of its hat (the taxpayer) and this entire sorry mess will implode.
They know this and understand this. They are simply trying to shift as much private debt as possible over to the public purse before it happens. Everything in between is smoke and mirrors. Don't let wishful or magical thinking on our part obscure this very simple truth.
CD, absolutely correct.
I noted a year or two ago that we are on the Argentina Model for economic future.
People should fear not a gold seizure but one of 401ks and pensions. That is a pile of trillions in "wealth" sitting there that the government simply "needs."
Yes if they seize these retirement accounts, they are effectively nationalizing ownership of a good portion of the entire business spectrum.
Either way, I don't think this bodes too well for the dollar...
I've read somewhere (here?) that 401k loans and H/S withdrawls are at an all time high (I myself have a loan pending - plan on paying off a small HELOC balance and keeping the rest for cash/PM based on where the market looks to be going).
Now certainly some of that is laid-off people trying to pay their food/heat/mortgage but I have to believe a fair amount of that is people like me who don't need to pull $$ of their 401k but would rather have the chance to get some of that money out now before Barry O decides he needs it "more".
once i noticed that you do not really need a reason to take a loan on your 401k, i promptly did and used the money to pay off all high interest debt... so now i pay back myself 4% gain instead of 20% to the credit cards
even if you don't really need the money you should do it if you want to hedge against a crash and just put it into gold or whatever
I agree. I've begun talking to people about distributing the money in their IRA's and other qualified accounts (can't touch the 401(k) while they still work there) pay the taxes (take some this month and some next month and spread it over 2 tax years) and then you have much more freedom to move and invest the assets.
Not having much luck because people want to believe the worst is over and things are getting better, albeit slowly. By the time it becomes obvious the government and Fed are going to implement desperate measures, it will be too late to act and protect yourself. You can be sure the law will have a look back feature, that captures everything that left qualified plans in the prior xx months.
A lot of 401(k)s have a loan provision. Advise them to max that out. Keep enough of the cash to make up for the paycheck reduction and put the rest in PMs.
If you use a loan provision and the government seizes 401(k)s, what's to say you won't have an immediate calling of the loan, with punitive interest if not outright criminal penalties if you don't repay it within a short time period? Otherwise this would be a great way to have your cake and eat it too, and we know how much Congress loathes such options.
I'm guessing that by the time they get around to 401k grabs the (redacted) will be hitting the fan and I expect (hope? pray?) to be off the grid by then.
Besides, if they're going to do that they better up and do it quickly while it's still a 401k and not a 101k
It's a nice hope but hasn't been Argentina's experience, which in many ways seems like the US 10 years ahead. Check out:
http://www.ferfal.blogspot.com/
great site, read it regularly
so if they are seizing 401ks you really think there is a reason to stay in this country??
I agree there is a loan provision for 401(k) but what worries me is more obscure. If the government does go after qualified money, they will most certainly include some type of look back feature. I believe that feature will probably assume if you took a loan for anything other than medical bills or home purchase during xx months (or if the loan is still outstanding) you took it to avoid being captured by the Gvt and they will go after you anyway.
Desperate men will do desperate things. I have told people who aren't very secure in their jobs or have always wanted to quit to think hard about finding another job NOW. Once they are employed elsewhere, get the 401(k) into an IRA and then distribute it. Pay the tax man and move on.
Some people don't think the looters would be that bold. I know my dad isn't worried about it because he claims that people with guns would go nuts and the looters would have an open revolt on their hands. I on the other hand see that it can be done if they preface it with a convenient crisis. After all a scumbag once said "You can't let a good crisis go to waste".
How many people used guns when Roosevelt confiscated the gold? Don't kid yourself - will you really use your puny firearms against the behemoth that is the government? Who is more likely to win? Right. You have to be absolutely suicidal (or insane) to use your guns against the government. This is not the way this fight will be won. It will be won through ideas and superior mental ability/thinking skills. It's better to be nimble and live under the radar. During the tsunami, it's better to be a cockroach than an elephant.
Well we better get some more of these superior brains on 'our' side pretty quick - the time for politics is pretty much over.
The morons in charge always reduce the argument to their level and win through experience.
+100 wise
I think things are different this time. First and formost the people, police and army, are made up of alot of people that are educated enough and informed enough about history to refuse to be a part of it. I suspect there would be mass refusals to move on the people, especailly in rural America.
Second, there is no question the people in rural America are heavly armed with plenty of ammo. And the rural folks are not going to lay down even if they are against considerable odds. The ones that chose to fight know the area and geography and where to pick a fight that favors them.
Obama may order such actions, but history will show it triggered the second American Revolution based on returning freedam and liberty to every citzen.
Yes, America is different.
Until the American model, the force of arms that most nations could muster came from the noblemen or the elites or the monarchies or the dictatorships. In other words, the armed power of those governments began at the top.
In America, from Concord to Bunker Hill, the force of arms began from the bottom. It was the unknown man who stepped out to fight the British Regulars. And, now, America’s superpower status in the world is backed not by the elites or the wealthy but by the treasure and consent of the vast middle class. When the chips are down and a revolution is near at hand, the middle class will not be supporting a police state government. And AK-47s in the hands of the sons of the middle class are not going to be turned on their communities and their neighborhoods.
That’s the reason why America is different. The British Empire, for example, was run by the wealthy and the shopkeepers; it was they who forged the empire. But all the tremendous power that America has, has been with the consent of the middle class that pays for it. That is why America is different from any other country in the world. And the minute these bankers turn on the people, the people will wipe them out. The army will not obey the bankers.
It took a long time for the American people to force the neocons out of Iraq, but it was done. And to do it the people had to elect the most left wing presidential candidate in America’s history. It was a bitter pill to swallow and a high price to pay but the people chose the one candidate who had voted against going to war with Iraq. Unfortunately, they’ve been hoodwinked on foreign wars again, but already they are moving in their way to oppose the war in Afghanistan. Americans don’t want war.
Those who say Americans are not going to fight back against totalitarianism, are misreading the American people. Americans are not cowards and they are not interested in going to foreign countries and killing people. Obama was a terrible price for the people to pay because McCain was not going to get them out of Iraq. Obama never had a prayer to be president except for that one single vote, his vote against the Iraq war. That’s what brought Obama from the back of the room all the way to the front. The American people did that.
To discuss revolution in America, past revolutions are not very instructive. The Russian Revolution, for example, took place in an extremely primitive country with severe weather conditions and practically no communications between regions. It was only necessary for the Bolsheviks to take St. Petersburg and one or two other key areas. The same was true of the French Revolution; it was primarily a revolution in Paris. All the trials and movements took place within Paris. As a matter of fact, it’s said that the one reason the king was blind-sided by the revolution was that he was in Versailles with the rest of the ruling elites, isolated from Paris. He had no idea what was happening in Paris and all of a sudden it was too late.
Hitler’s rise to power primarily took place in Munich.
But as for America, America has numerous major cities, vast communications systems, an interstate highway system, all kinds of education and a history of independence. And she has not surrendered her arms. Pick any one city and completely destroy it and all its inhabitants—and you’ve just barely started.
And lastly, American revolutionaries won’t have the United States government stepping in to support the ruling tyrant.
You are right. In America, things will be different.
Don't get me wrong I agree, I don't have tanks, planes, or nukes. Americans have put up with a great deal, an will put up with a great deal more. I have no intention of resisting in physical manner, but then I also think that sticking around is a dangerous call.
The only way I see to beat the gov is to simply ignore them. A mass movement to remove them from our lives. No taxes, no services no nothing. Let Mordor on the Potomac sink.
You have a point...on the otherhand you might be fighting the last war.
When FDR was President folks still believed that there were no limits to this country. Now we are starting to understand that a large segment of the population believes that I exist only to supply them with handouts. We understand that perhaps there is no solution except to turn it upside down and shake it.
The Government ain't all that...and no Government has faced a citizenery as armed and smart as we are...any Government that thinks the public will be a push over will be in for a mighty big surprise. Besides much of the Army comes from our culture...not theirs.
Having said all that can't we all just get along? Heh...I think the answer is no but I would love to be convinced otherwise.
Finally just because we might lose doesn't mean we won't fight.
i am beyond sick of this 'handout' complaint - all that money goes right back in the system to pay for the lights, trash, etc etc and just keep the churn going.. lots of business keeps on rolling because of those 'handouts' and none of the poor get rich because of it.
the handouts to failed business is a different story... just lining a small % of pockets there
Think how much "churn" there'd be if everyone was actually making something.
It's not only guns and gold that matter. How easy would it be for the feds to shut down the Internet?
Guns don't have to be confiscated, just outlaw the sale or possession of ammunition. Got gold? If it's criminalized like drugs, where will you sell it? There are multitudes of smart folks in DC already thinking up this stuff.
roger that
1st MARDIV had troops in LA in the riots early '90's
cost some of my buddies their careers, but the riots burned themselves out
roger that. 1st MARDIV got to play in the LA riots early '90's. Couple of my friends got screwed over after doing their job, posse comitatus (sp?).
but the riots burned themselves out, no congress-critters or other unindicted conspirators were in the frag pattern.
Ned
You are absolutely correct. You will NEVER have any resistance from apolitical US bourgeoisie class which has been so carefully cultivated and manipulated. If the vast organized labor force in the thirties could not pull it off, there is a fat chance that electronically surveilled, brainwashed and divided society would rise up.
The survival rule in a corrupt society where the government is the tyrant and thief: Lie, cheat and steal (metaphorically speaking) and never leave any trace of your transactions (but take care of your close friends!). Watch how you balance your income and expenditures and where you spend your funds (Don't do dumb things that may attract attention).
Nobody can confiscate your gold if there is no trace that you ever had it, right? Most will not have clue until they are robbed blind.
This fight COULD be won only by having an educated, perceptive, politically aware, tough population that knows what and who is against their economic and political interests and being able to act on it in the most ruthless way. The US political establishment is the product of exactly the opposite.
It's a matter of who is going to be first. being first is difficult when leading a revolution because you usually get killed, especially if no one else gets on board. For this reason there probably won't be an uprising.
Although if they stop paying emergency unempolyment benefits you never know. But all they need to do is keep printing. Yeah there probably won't be an uprising.
one truth is.. if you want a revolution, be ready to eat rats
When we start eating rats, be ready for a revolution.
I read an article that advised people not to do that, but I can think of several reasons to do that very thing. The first is to pay off debt as we ease into deflation. (which I think is inevitable) and second would be , as you said, to put it in places where the government can't confiscate it. I plan to do that very thing in January and have 0% withheld. That would give me until April 15, 2011 to pay the taxes. By then I'll either be living under an assumed name in some yet to be determined Central American country or I'll be in prison -- or both. (Or we could be in the thralls of a Second American Revolution ... in either case, it won't matter.)
Prechter recommended that too in Conquer the Crash. The threat of that was so out of my reality until I took the red pill in Feb 2008.
Other good idea is to minimize your future 401k contributions to the min match (keep the cash in your own liquid accts), and review your tax withholding so less money goes to the tres (serves the added benefit of "starving the beast").
we need to organize more of this - all the blind 401k payments led to the raping of the market
another fun one would be for everyone to max out home equity loans, short their mortgage bank, and stop making payments... why not all the 'little people' stack the deck goldman style???
CD (or anyone), do you have an info site you can suggest to help those who are considering this method? a friend with an IRA would like to know her options and i'm a bit out of the loop on such matters.
many thanks.
irs.gov Pub 590 has the rules. gotta play by the rules
Ned
good lookin out ned...she's a good girl so straight is the way she wants it.
And the IRA/401k confiscation would of course also be in the Argentina model. Makes you start to wonder if Argentina has been a test run for how to screw the rest of the "first world."
I do think that such a seizure would trigger an extreme response from the under-40 crowd who would know they were never going to see a cent of the money again. Likely some combination of protests, going Galt, and outright expatriation.
There is already the start of a brain drain of young people. You don't see much written about it but educated young people are slowly trickling out of the US. Many more will be joining them in the coming years. Look at history, people move from oppressive high tax regimes to more free lower tax countries, it always happens that way, and barring world government always will.
The US is the most oppressive taxation regime in the world - a tax prison, if you will. The only outsiders (read:idiots) who want to permanently reside in the US are those who don't know about the 2008 HEART Act.
You are correct. What countries tax their citizens no matter where they are at? USA and North Korea, both fine bastions of freedom and liberty! Speaking as a student of the tax system I can tell you nightmarish does not describe it. No living man understands it all it it's grotesque and vile forms. It is vast enough to fill libraries and obtuse enough to shame most lawyers. To even gaze upon it and delve into it's mysteries costs many their sanity!
If/when I leave I'm thinking about sacking my citizenship. I don't much care for the idea that they have a lien on my soul, and I can't bank because foreign banks won't work with Americans. They're to afraid of our gov. I'll take the one time burst of taxes and be done with it.
I really don't see this, and I'm both young and working in international business. Where and how do you see it? I see the complete expatriation of South African whites under 35, and I see a lot of UK expatriates as well, plus a variety of Canadians who find that going offshore for 5-10 years lets them save, tax-free, an amount of money that they probably could never save while in Canada. But I just don't see the US kids doing the same.
Not sure why that would be true except that there is a tax disincentive to expatriate the US. The IRS has levy agreements with various foreign countries and if you literally give up your citizenship there is a one-time tax that is completely oppressive. I suppose you can slip out and disappear, but I think it is much easier for Canadians and others to live abroad than it is for Americans ... at least to escape taxation. (See, UBS for example.)
I've been reading about young ivy league grads going to China and other parts of Asia. I personally cannot confirm this, but this is the trend I would expect. Well SA is changed because it's a hostile environment for them. The UK is worse off then we are, and Canada I can see because their taxes are high. But the examples you use are places that will either kill you, a country that is fully rotting, or a fairly high tax system where people use it as a chance to save.
Taxes in the US will increase, they have to. Now whether the tax is through printing dollars and currency devaluation or legitimate levying of taxes I cannot tell you but it will happen, and when it does it will be fierce.
Most US kids won't leave. But most US kids are dumb. What I am speaking of is the smart, motivated, hardworking kids. The youth are enamored by "international" things, at school you can't swing a textbook without hitting someone who dreams about practicing "international law". People who immigrate tend to be more advertours, after all going to a new land to find a new life is a very risky thing.
I'm at the upper range of that age group, and well within the education/social group for it. I see a few people aspiring but hardly any doing.
Here are what I see as obstacles:
-credentials. Most US credentials don't transfer well. The expats I meet from the commonwealth are most often accountants (chartered accountant) and financial analysts. Some are lawyers. All of these have credentials that transfer very well, sometimes seamlessly, within the British Commonwealth and to a lesser extent other countries that were even lightly touched by the UK. With a CPA or a JD, your credentials really don't transfer. So it's not as easy for the US professionals to pick up and go somewhere.
-Already mentioned, the US taxes you on worldwide income, wherever you reside. This is a huge burden compared to almost anyone else, who can retain citizenship while paying little or no tax during their time "offshore."
-Banking issues already noted.
-US FBAR reports (TD 90-22.1) which are fairly onerous. No tax payable due to them, but it can make it difficult to have any sort of financial job outside the US.
-Perhaps most of all, a certain form of provincialism. Even among those with extensive foreign travel, few really seem to think about the viability or desirability of living elsewhere. I'm not saying zero - I know a few (one works for the UN, one IMF, one a huge law firm) - but only a few. I think the only adventurous ones are either at the upper end of the trust fund club, where they have no risk and little cost from living elsewhere, and those in the non-career club - ski bums, beach bums, etc.
You are correct on the obstacles, and they are huge. Do you think most will even try to overcome them, or just try to ride it out? My thought was to leave, but then again my family is pretty new to America (I'm first gen technically) so the idea of going somewhere for opportunity isn't that strange to me.
I know I'm getting a JD that will be worth 0 to me, even though about 1/2 way through school for it (Can't leave would break moms heart). I'm back into programming and plan on staying there since that is a service that the world in general wants. Still a shortage of skilled programmers and database guys worldwide. Ironically my BS is in accounting so I managed to step on both landmines :) Though assuming the US doesn't totally collapse I'll hang to get a second BS in Computer Science, looks like those transfer a bit better and in programming certs mean more then degrees most of the time. Trying to make myself look better for when I have to go!
I agree that most of the non science professionals will have a hard time leaving I think the few scientists and engineers we produce will have a better chance at it. And certainly the international students in those fields will be welcome back at home.
Well I think part of the provincialism you talk about is the limited expose Americans get to foreign cultures, and the fact there is no push for kids to learn multiple languages. I couldn't speak a second language, now I'm busting my ass to learn Mandarin.
U nailed mate. I'm a s/w engineer and have worked in many countries world wide (helps to have an eu and Australian passport I suppose - also speak 4 languages but all European) and there is never shortage of work; especially if you're good. I used to work at financial firms in the City (london) but moved back to Australia late last year and am now working on health s/w for hospitals in Melbourne. I'm finding Melbourne boring so thinking of moving again. Getting a job is not
my fear
Glad to hear it! Gives me a bit more hope that at least one guy is living the dream! One question did you get a degree in it, and you you suggest I get that second bachelors?
I am all for the non-career club.
That's why I have been doing 100% Roth 401k contributions. Even if it's not an all out 'seizure' of your account, a hefty tax is really the same thing. If they need the money, they'll get it -- you think politicians understand the Laffer curve?
How would this help you? If the government decides to abrogate the sanctity of IRA and 401(k) accounts that you own, why would they magically leave the Roth accounts untouched? I would anticipate Roth being treated the same way in any such confiscation. Personally I think you are better off taking a tax benefit now since it's hard to know what the tax code will look like in a few decades (assuming, of course, you are not 60+).
They wouldn't. I'm simply stipulating that such action is not likely considering what the political and social ramifications of such a move. Although, considering the blythe manner in which arbitrary dictactorial moves by government were so widely accepted and implemented, I wouldn't be surprised. As you say, though, Roth provides you with a way to defend yourself against increase in future income tax rates (the trend, for which, is up).
Yes, Roth is great protection if you believe the federal government, 20, 30, 40 years from now, will honor expensive commitments it made in the late 1990's. I have no faith in that.
I see what is coming and it ain't purty. :-)
First the federales decided to trick everyone into converting to a Roth (new tax rule in 2010) and pay taxes on your regular IRA now. Then, in a couple of years they will change the withdrawal rules and impose a small tax on Roth withdrawals and/or inherited Roths. Finally, as a desperate measure they will tax withdrawals as ordinary income.
I can see the writing on the wall.
I am not counting on anything staying the same even a year from now.
But they also do want to avoid massive uproar, which changing the Roth rules would likely cause.
Devaluing the currency still seems the best way for them to take people's money and avoid uproar.
Never had any of that shit, never will.
Once more, right on time right on the money
Miles my man: I have a substantial 401K with Fidelity in cash. I liquidated all equities. This entire thread is spooking me!!! What are the rules for Hardship withdrawl loan? Is it penalty free and how many years to pay it back????.....;-)
Sqworl, I have a family member who belongs to the American Academy of Actuaries. I will ask him and get back to you. Check here like tomorrow evening or Thursday and I will have chapter and verse for you.
Miles your da Man...xoxo
Pleasure to assist my masked super hero. xo backatcha. Please, do try and remember fear and investing do not mix well. I will be more than happy get you the straight 411, but please do your best to be right for yourself so you can do right by yourself. Peace
I just found out that I am completely shagged...401K is IRA rollover...;-(((((((
http://www.irs.gov/retirement/sponsor/article/0,,id=151926,00.html
Check this with other more knowledgable people but my tact would be grab every credit card you can. Max it buying gold and silver. Stop paying mortgage. Talk to employer about maybe setting up a temporary layoff. Get as much of the money out on hardship. If they know how to create financial crisis and profit from it. Then you should be doing the same thing.
Now get out there and drama queen like nobodies ever drama queened before. Hell scarf down 10 poppy seed rolls and get drug tested and show up with an application to the most expensive drug rehab place you can find. Get your crisis on!!!
Sqworl, this is the best I could get. The basic is that all of the legalese is already generated based upon the specifics of the plan/s you have contributed under. These plans have specific requirements as to when you can withdraw, under specific conditions and with specific penalties and extra withholding that may apply. Especially if you choose to place these assets under a "non conforming plan". So the best advice I can give to ya is to ask your plan provider for the specifics that apply to the plan/s you are under and the rules that apply to them. There is generally a no penalty aspect to a qualified roll over. When you are no longer governed by the plan since you have left that specific employment the rule are different that if you still are.
So, contact Fidelity or the plan provider at the place of employment and ask them for the rules of the plan/s you are under so you can have the information you require to make your decision. I hope this helps in some way. I wish you all the best. And I wish I knew more, but being under the public defined benefit plan systems I just never have gotten around to trying to understand all of this stuff. oo
They are providing a window of opportunity to the insiders to accumulate as much hard-assets as possible before the entire sorry mess implodes. Are you still surprised why Gold prices are rising?
Yea, and that's a pretty steep curve all the way from $1224 to $1141.
Nothing goes up or down in a straight line you moron. Funny that, a few weeks ago an idiot like you was complaining that $1100 Gold was "too high".
You're the one that noticed the line straight down, huh
Oops $1125 now.
Ha!
Not for nothing, but it's still up about 3% - in the last 30-days.
Good luck.
Forget it, Gordon. We'll be hiring these guys to mow our grass in a few years.
Tax collections have and continue to provide the clearest picture into the health of the US economy. Local governments cannot hide property transfer & sales tax receipts and and the feds cannot hide employment and business tax receipts. I wonder if one of the ways that QE2 will be delivered will be via this conduit in an attempt to obscure reality.
Miles,
I believe you're on track. The way they keep this going is to appeal to the average persons sense of entitlement and payback (the "banksters got some, where's mine" mentality) by bailing out local and state municipalities. Of course, that means more for the banksters and other favored players as well.
Since it will be seen as a must pass law, everything including the kitchen sink will be dropped in. Pork all around, it's on the taxpayer.
Just like Mr. Chnage's "stimulus bill." Practically a can of spam or Jimmy Dean sausage...
Additional supporting evidence: the true P/E of the S&P 500 (using GAAP earnings) is now 86.20, showing that earnings (E) have been lagging severely while stock prices (P) were likely oversupported by the dollar carry trade (TARP money).
http://online.barrons.com/public/page/9_0210-indexespeyields.html
Tis a glitch in the matrix it tis.
At no time will their hands leave their arms.
http://anonymousmonetarist.blogspot.com/2009/12/great-depression-no-great-deception.html
Love your daylight AM.
Does anyone else have the feeling that a record tsunami of inflation is barreling at us, just on the edge of the horizon? No effect until it hits, but then - WHAM! that's it.
MM ............ this looks more and more like deflation. Sinking tax receipts means that everyone is making less money and have less to spend. Credit deterioration is another indicator of deflation. The only inflation would be assets bubbles ..... the Fed pumping more and more cheap money into the system that is used by those who have access to it to leverage it into assets. But then we for some reason never consider asset bubbles as inflation, do we?
Reality is the tail risk.
The models and besotted following are not trading based on fundamentals.
Inflation expectations were well anchored in the First Great Depression.
Deflation for the moment. Two caveats. First, sustained deflation will absolutely kill all levels of US government, and I don't see the government allowing that, even if the alternative is an express partial default or a time of hyperinflation. Second, deflation has routinely preceded hyperinflation in other countries.
You used the term tsunami. Study them. The ocean goes away and then comes rolling back in. Sometimes people go out and pick up the flipping fish not knowing that there is more to come.
Chopshop will be one of those people.
There WAS NEVER ANY DEFLATION DURING THE GREAT DEPRESSION. Only a temporary deflation till the 60 percent devaluation tsunami hit.
Pay the man Shirley
I think it looks like deflation for the time being as well. But the government won't let that happen due to the fact that banks, including investment banks, will collapse. We are in a slow deflationary spiral now, but if it picks up speed it would be deadly. That is why Obama is now focusing on employment. He needs to spur hiring and a little wage inflation to stop deflation from accelerating. My own opinion is that we "need" to deflate prices and the government could manage it if they tried, but there is too much influence by those who want prices to go up not down. (Asset prices.)
Ultimately they can only kick this can so far. At that point a devaluation, currency reset (different things), or a partial default or debt restructuring will have to happen. That is when we might see things like seizure of gold, confiscation of 401ks (Social Security is already bankrupt so that would be the excuse) and quite possibly war. If we told China, "gee guys, we're sorry but we can't quite cover that trillion dollars, how about 50 cents on the dollar?" how do folks think China would react? My guess is they would react the same as the allies did when the Weimar Republic defaulted on its WWI reparations. They seized and occupied parts of Germany. If the Chinese did that it would trigger a war.
So bottom line, these are failed or failing policies. This can only end with massive deflation followed by a devaluation causing hyperinflation and possibly war. I wonder how many Americans would give the government the middle finger and refuse to fight a war to help the banksters?
Not to worry. BOBAMA has a plan:
SPEND OUR WAY OUT OF RECESSION!!!
Wake me up when it's over.
...All experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security. --Such has been the patient sufferance of myself, my family, friends, neighbors, and countrymen for more than a decade now.
The government no longer represents the interests of its people, and hasn't for some time. It is my sense that the bulk of these declines in tax returns is due to decline in economic activity but there is something else going on. Individuals are making the conscious decision to stop contributing to this kleptocracy. Businesses are using every loophole imaginable to cut their tax bills and are being aided by government sanctioned accounting fraud.
Our government is willing to destroy the wealth of its people to maintain a status quo that points toward feudalism. There is no stronger way to reject our government and reject the status quo than to stop paying your taxes.
I don't think we're there yet. If people were tax revolting, there would be high-profile prosecutions and poster children being made examples of in the media...
I think it really is as simple as a combination of unemployment and underemployment.
"If people were tax revolting, there would be high-profile prosecutions and poster children being made examples of in the media..."
------
Unless you happen to be an Obama Administration official. Since non-payment of taxes by these individuals occurred during previous administrations, these acts ought to be seen as a form of civil disobedience--a vote of no-confidence, if you will, in the Bush presidency. Imitation being the sincerest form of flattery, it is mete that we, now, follow Geihtner's lead and refuse to pay taxes in support of an evil regime.
I've searched the FMS web site and cannot find this data. Does anyone have a clue where it can be found?
Someone has compiled a spreadsheet based on the data from this site. A simple look at December 4th 2009 versus December 4th 2008 (ytd) shows a 16% decline in individual withholdings, making the rolling number more conservative and probably more accurate.
Where is the data? Who has the spreadsheet?
Thanks.
I love your persistence, please keep it up.
When you succeed here, we have a mission for you in Copenhagen, where they are seriously source-data challenged,
Ned.
I find it disgusting. Here I am raising withholding for 2010 an extra 15% across board for state and federal taxes that will bite us in the ass.
It does not matter a damn now does it?!
Tax withholding = hard data.
Thanks for pointing this out Tyler.
The BLS never lets that kind of hard data get in the way of their unemployment "estimates" and the vaunted birth/death model which make it all better.
John Williams at Shadow Government Stats also points out the same thing with GDP. The BEA ignore the hard data and report unsupported upward biased growth numbers. His primer is worth the read.
"The NIPA effectively is a double-entry bookkeeping system, where an item on the consumption side of the ledger, in the GNP/GDP accounts, is offset on the income side of the ledger, in Gross Domestic Income (GDI) accounts. In theory, the GNP and the GDI should be identical. In practice they rarely are, with the latest "statistical discrepancy" showing GNP to be $67 billion, or 0.6% higher than the GDI. This is due to the BEA's inability to reconcile the two series." (Note: 2002 numbers).
The key to statistics? What is referred to as "shaping the data." That is the "semantic gimmicks of just what it means to be unemployed." Marginally attached is a perfect example. If you are unemployed yet have not looked for work in the last 4 weeks...
In the real world, if you are an unemployed construction worker and you have applied for every job there is to apply for and there are no more new construction jobs to apply for... are you any less unemployed?
Insert real estate salesmen, mortgage salesmen, bank employee, accountant, MBS junk bond salesmen, you name it. In a recession all of these industries collapse their hiring and how many 7-11 jobs are there left to apply for after you have exhausted the openings in your occupation?
Thanks for pointing out the ever increasing "How to Lie With Statistics" (Darrell Huff) that every incumbent politician in the US government uses on an increasingly number illiterate American public.
Excellent point on how tax receipts reflect the true underlying strength of the economy. Tax rates have not changed ... we just have individuals and companies making less money that can get taxed. Probably also have more income now being generated in the black market.
With output at such horrendous levels, the government better keep spending as well as cut tax rates. Obama's proposal for zero capital gains for small companies is a good starting point. Payroll tax cut would be another. And remember that the government does not need taxes to spend.
Taxes function to regulate the economy, and not to get money for Congress to spend.
Yup. They get their spending money created out of thin air via the Fed.
Yeah, did you catch this too, apparently we are going to spend our way out of this problem. Guess where that money is coming from?
http://www.examiner.com/x-26212-Long-Island-Democrat-Examiner~y2009m12d8...
I got mine by shorting Gold @ +$1200, just like out of thin air.
Yes, very good TRADE.
Most people that pump gold aren't looking to trade it, however.
The price of gold at this moment of time is only relevant if you are buying or selling at this moment.
The bottom line is, people own gold. They don't own gold, which fluctuates in value from $1100 an ounce to $1240 an ounce. No. They own 100 ounces today, they own 100 ounces tomorrow. The price they are trying to convince us is a fre market supply/demand based price clearly isn't!
When the dust settles, that is when people will trade their gold. And I can only guarantee you one thing, you will be able to buy as much guns and butter with your gold as you can now.
Slight correction lovejoy, the stimulus changed the withholding tables, and for the lower income brackets the 2009 taxes are lower due to the stimulus tax break.
I pulled 60% of my IRA two months ago.
However, last night I truly flipped the John Galt switch. Going forward, I will aggressively seek ways to screw the IRS. I'm startin a couple of 'new businesses', and sploring the world of farmin.
The government does not obey the law, and I've realized that I don't need to either. I suspect this will all crash down before they reach my name on the naughty and nice list.
In the Soviet Union they used to say:
"They pretend to pay us, so we pretend to work."
Your point is correct. US government pretends to obey the law, so you pretend too.
http://anonymousmonetarist.blogspot.com/2009/11/cash-for-bunkers-bunker-busting-mops.html
As a pup, I was the manager of a 'pre-internet' weekly. We were free to the public and survived on advertising revenue. Had to hire dispatchers in order to run out and pick up checks in order for ad copy to make the deadline.
One of our dispatchers was from the Soviet Union. He was formerly the manager of a petrochemical factory and part of the nomenklatura. He only took the dispatch job because he 'needed time' to improve his English.
One evening, over a vodka hydration session, he regaled me with stories of how he and his buddies would party in undisclosed locations with Western goods - fancy TVs, drinks, food - espousing the commie ethic while reveling in the 'vida loca'.
Can hear his accented voice now as he offered ' You see in Soviet Union we were capitalists... we were always capitalists...we were just bad capitalists'.
Will our children someday listen to an enlightened past Master of the Universe intone in poor Mandarin: 'You see in America we were socialists...we were always socialists ... we were just bad socialists.'?
Deep. Sposiba.
dude announcing your intent on any online forum is not wise. They have unlimited resources which to fuck you with.
badrhino is not my real name, and Marla has a pitbull mix guarding the server.
badrhino, I pulled 100% of my IRA in 2008, and paid a monstrous total income tax bill (kicked me up a bracket). Going forward, my taxes will be MUCH LESS, as rates go up. Still have lots of underwater stock positions to lighten up my tax bills in the copming years.
I have started on a path John Galt. Buy and hold precious metals. No more working to pay the Mordor-on-the-Potomac.
HALLELUJAH! Government going bankrupt is cause for celebration folks! This is EXACTLY what we need. Hide your wealth in physical gold and don't pay one red cent in protection money...er..."taxes" to them CRIMINALS. Starve the beast.
Personally I have started paying all cash, all the time, for any expenses I can, especially at small businesses. I have had several businesses thank me for paying cash. I am pretty sure in those cases that the entire transaction isn't being recorded. Good for them.