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The Coming "New World Order" Revolution: How Things Will Change In The Next 20 Years - A Kondratieff Cycle Perspective

Tyler Durden's picture


SocGen has published a fantastic, must read big picture report, which compares the world in the 1980/1985-2000/2005 time period and juxtaposes it to what the author, Veronique Riches-Flores predicts will happen over the next two decades years, the period from 2005/2010 to 2025/2030. Unlike other very narrow and short-sighted projections, this one is based not on trivial and grossly simplified assumptions such as perpetual growth rates, but on a holistic demographic approach to perceiving the world. At its core, SocGen compares the period that just ended, one in which world growth was driven by an expansion in supply, to one that will be shaped by an explosion of demand. And, unfortunately, the transformation from the Supply-driven to the Demand-driven world will not be pretty. Summarizing this outlook: "Over the last three decades strong growth in the working-aged population across Asia and the opening-up of world trade have led to considerable expansion in global production capacities. These factors created a highly competitive and disinflationary environment of plentiful supply, which was characterised by low interest rates, a credit boom and, in the financial markets, exuberant appetite for risky assets. As the demographic cycle progresses, we are seeing the emergence of an aging population, which is less favourable to productive investment. Meanwhile the rise in living standards among the emerging population heralds an unprecedented level of growth in demand. The world supply/demand balance is dramatically changing against a backdrop of resource shortages which are likely to favour shorter cycles, increased government intervention in economic affairs and inflation." In other words, contrary to what you may have read elsewhere, the future is about to get ugly. And topping it all off is a Kondratieff cycle chart: what's not to like. Read on.

Visually comparing the two proposed world paradigms:

The world was characterized by a very defined demographic transformation which served as the underpinning of a production capacity explosion:

A rise in the working age population, which provides labour and growth in demand and savings, has always coincided with economic prosperity. This trend, which economists describe as the “demographic dividend” of the first phase of transition from a primitive or  stationary demographic structure, with high birth and death rates, to a developed demographic structure, translates in economic terms into a very strong urge to invest, which is the main source of economic development. The countries of Asia excluding Japan reaped  spectacular rewards from this demographic transition: between the mid-1980s and the present their rate of investment has increase by the equivalent of more than 10% of the region’s GDP and industrial potential has considerably increased. The surge in investment that began in Southeast Asia has over the last 15 years focused predominantly on China.

Yet demographics must be taken in conjunction with the other core feature defining the world since 1980: the literal New World Order, predicated by the opening of the world to "free trade."

This transition would not have been so great, nor would it have had the global implications it has had, if it hadn’t been accompanied by the opening-up of world trade due to progress in international negotiations which first brought the GATT agreement and then the WTO, with the aim of optimising resources by making better use of competitive advantages.

In a progressively open world, Asian countries drew increasing benefits from their comparative advantage. The sudden abundance of very low cost labour created the conditions for an unprecedented rise in competition on the world labour market which brought even more investment into the region. What these trends did was to bring about a profound shift in the world’s production and labour balance and a radical change in the economic model that was previously in force. Because, although there had always been cost differences from one country to another, access to a globalised market provided the opportunity of exerting more influence than ever before. The liberalisation of trade gave the Asian demographic transition a dimension comparable to that which brought about the same phenomenon in Europe a century earlier, albeit in Europe’s case the scale was far smaller.

Thus the population boom of recent decades triggered, not a substantial rise in demand, as one might at first expect, but a massive increase in supply as a result of the unprecedented expansion of the global production base. Given that the purchasing power of workers in the emerging Asian countries has, up until recently, been too limited to have any real influence on world demand, average global investment per capita continued to grow faster than real consumption in the region between the mid-1980s and 2007, with the gap peaking at almost 40% over the period.

Naturally, just these two drivers did not nearly come close to explaining the hospitable environment for global growth:

These fundamental characteristics have been reinforced by innumerable other economic, political and cultural revolutions which all aided the development of supply: the end of communism and consequently the expansion of the capitalistic model, privatisations and the widespread decline of state intervention, deregulation in most of the major sectors of economic life, the accelerated development of the financial markets, the revolution of communication technologies. All of these factors contributed to an environment shaped by abundant supply, where increasing competition meant that the least competitive were doomed to fail and all sustained prices rises were eradicated. While the central banks congratulated themselves for having kept inflation under control over the years, we can see that they had a good deal of help from the underlying economy. By restricting access to excess liquidity for the goods markets, the context made it a lot easier for the central banks to control the scourge of inflation. Meanwhile disinflation led to a structural weakening in interest rates which was highly beneficial for the conditions underlying global supply… until it eventually led to the financial excesses that caused the crisis in 2008.

This combination of factors created an environment that was particularly favourable for all asset classes, company assets in the first instance, and then credit, bonds and property assets.

While the expansion of the production platform took place primarily in Asia, it was the West that enjoyed the improvement in return on capital. In a hyper-competitive environment, productivity gains improved in proportion to job weakness and, in a context characterised by a structural decline in capital stock and weaker economic growth, this produced a marked improvement in yield on the latter.

Overall these shifts meant that in the universe of large corporations an increasing part of the added value went towards profits and this, combined with a very strong dividend distribution policy, goes a long way towards explaining the paradox of recent years where structurally weak economies and very strong capital market profitability lived alongside each other for so long.

So that was then. And it lead to what can only be described as log growth in all aset classes: we will not insult readers' intelligence by showing a graph of the S&P from 1980 to 2005.

What is next?

SocGen does not sugarcoat it:

The unprecedented economic and financial crisis of 2008 has abruptly altered the course of history and there is no doubt that its effects will have a sustained influence on future developments. However, the crisis itself represents the expression of the end of the excess created by the previous situation and its consequences should play only a secondary role in comparison to the powerful structural changes that are currently sweeping across the globe, namely changing demographic trends, the explosion of demand in emerging countries and the resurgence of physical constraints to growth.

The shift in the global demographic structure that has characterised the last three decades is now coming to an end. Although the global population is expected to continue to grow significantly in the future, with the nine billion threshold likely to be reached in 2040  according to the UN’s latest projections, a third of this growth will be attributable to the expansion of the elderly population, in the developed countries of course, but also in a good number of emerging countries, and particularly Asia.

The biggest demographic change is without doubt the aging of global, both developing and developed, society. This also explains the special role insolvent entitlement structures which are supposed to ensure retirmenet and pensions for ever more people, have in the eyes of current governments:

By 2030, the portion of working age people in the industrialised countries is expected to have fallen by more than 5%, from more than 67% of the population today, to 62%. By contrast, the over-65s are expected to climb from 16% to 22.5%. In Asia excluding Japan, the over-65s are expected to account for 36% (277 million) of the population increase, after having accounted for less than 10% of the increase observed over the previous 30 years. In the region, the portion of working people in the total population will stop growing when the Chinese population embarks on a similar decline to the one projected for the developed countries starting in 2010.

The below should be the first refutation of any brainless idiotic argument which sees the Dow at 20,000 in the near future (absent  hyperinflation of course, in which case the Dow will be at 20 billion but be completely worthless).

The economic implications of population growth resulting from an increase in working aged adults in the first case and an increase in over-65s, in the second, are naturally not comparable. While in the first case, the demographic shift favours structural development, in the second case it weighs on development.

The causes are largely understood in the developed countries where the population has already aged considerably. In this case nevertheless, the negative effects that the aging population has on savings and the urge to invest are likely to be accompanied, or even preceded by at least a proportional decline in growth of structural demand, especially in the current context of widespread household/government over-indebtedness. With revenues at least a third lower than those of the working population, the retired population consumes considerably less than the average adult and is far more vulnerable to debt and asset depreciation than younger households. The combined effects of over-indebtedness, property market decline and widespread fiscal tightening are thus likely to be greater in terms of pressure on demand than the effect of demographic aging on supply.

A longer-term demographic snapshot:

By 2030 two-thirds of the needs of the global population will emanate from the emerging world, the population of which is expected to approach seven billion and the economic weight of which is set to double in comparison to today’s level.

The punchline:

So, while up until now less than one billion people have accounted for three-quarters of global consumption, over the course of the next two decades, the new Chinese, Indian, Indonesian, Latin American and African middle classes will bring an additional two billion consumers with similar needs and aspirations as today’s North American, European and Japanese consumers.

Summarized what does this mean: said simply, an explosion in needs manifesting in a huge demand, and shortage, for all sorts of products, both raw and finished.

The global auto market

In 2010 the global auto fleet stood at approximately one billion vehicles. However, based on the increase in revenues per capita and fairly conservative assumptions relating to the increase in equipment ratios in the main emerging countries, the level should  spontaneously double by 2030.

To satisfy these new needs, production is going to have to grow at an average rate of 3.5% per annum over the next 20 years, compared with an average annual growth rate of 2.5% over 2002-2008. Although this may not seem too far-fetched at first, we then have to add the renewal of the existing fleet which, based on an average vehicle lifespan that we estimate to be between 10 and 12 years, will have to be completely replaced over the next two decades. Thus, one billion expansion + 1.6 to two billion replacement, which means that, in comparison to the current level, production would actually have to triple rather than double in order to meet future demand, corresponding to an average annual growth rate of not 3.5% but potentially 4.4% (assuming a 10-year average lifespan of a vehicle) to 5.6% (10 year average lifespan) by 2030.

Metals and other inputs

Given that metal accounts for half of the weight of each new vehicle (54% exactly at present), the tripling of auto production between now and 2030 implies a threefold increase in demand for metals, steel alloys, light metals such as aluminium, and textiles, which are also used extensively in vehicle production.

Meanwhile in another field, namely construction, rapid urbanisation and the subsequent increase in tall buildings is also contributing to very strong growth in demand for steel. According to ENRC (Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation), buildings of over 16 floors, where steel intensity is twice as high as in buildings of less than six floors, are expected to account for more than half of all new Chinese constructions between now and 2020.

These few examples are not just the exceptions. At this stage many sectors are projected to encounter increased demand of similar proportions, as the change in lifestyles that accompanies the rise in living standards in the emerging countries affects demand for a considerable range of goods.

Beyond growth in demand for finished products, the most spectacular effect likely to be brought about by the stronger development of the emerging economies will be the enormous rise in demand for raw materials.

The full report (below) indicates the same squeeze in agircultural products and in energy. Yet the take home message is clear: resource shortages are coming back with a vengeance as physical limits on growth once again appear.

Having disappeared from the economic landscape over the last century, resource shortages are back. This will create a particularly unstable environment in the long term, some of the characteristics of which we can already anticipate:

Structural increase in the cost of raw materials. A structural increase in raw materials prices is in fact an inevitable consequence of chronic resource insufficiencies, whether we’re talking about industrial, energy or agricultural resources. Rather than asking which direction real raw materials prices are going, we must now ask how long it will take to erase the long period of price decline seen between 1980s and the 2000s.

Rise in cycle frequency and magnitude. Given that any sustained period of expansion would be likely to run into an ever increasing number of physical constraints as time goes by, cycle durations are likely to become significantly shorter. However, greater cyclicality doesn’t mean that the cycles will be smoother. On the contrary, in view of the factors underlying the increase in demand, the upward phases of the short cycles are likely to be particularly pronounced, triggering recurrent price swings which could act as an automatic stabiliser. Movements in the price of raw materials and their resistance and support points look likely to play a key role in the cyclical shifts of the period.

Rise in cost of capital and slowdown in productivity gains. For economic intermediaries and the investment community, a series of short cycles spells relative instability and reduced visibility. These characteristics are generally bad news for investment as risk-taking would need to be carried out against a backdrop of potential resource shortages. This observation raises questions over the future development of commodity supply despite the context of increasing demand, given that savings sources are declining due to population aging in wealthy countries and this is likely to lead to a shortage of capital supply and a proportional increase in cost of capital. None of this bodes well for company performance. The slowdown in productivity gains that has been observed in the developed countries for almost a decade now thus looks set to continue and to spread to the newly industrialised countries.

State intervention, regionalisation of trade. The underlying scarcity of resources could pave the way towards a resurgence in regulation, as already observed with the restrictions on the trade of raw materials recently imposed by a number of countries. A rise in tensions on the commodities market and a diminishing supply of capital will considerably increase the temptation for governments to become increasingly involved in the management of resources. While strong inter-dependence reduces the risk of a return to widespread protectionism, a significant shift towards the regionalisation of trade, as opposed to the globalisation seen over the last 20 years, seems highly likely. Given the level of interdependence and tension, developments in global governance will be vital, meaning that a stronger regulatory framework will be adopted in an increasing number of economic and financial domains.

And the two most important take home observations:

Return of inflation

The stage is set for the return of inflation. It is merely a question of time before the global inflationary movement gets underway. The realisation that the emerging countries will account for the bulk of the growth in demand does very little to change this conclusion in a world characterised by a high level of inter-dependence and one that is increasingly being driven by the rising influence of these new players. The fall in competition that has already been triggered by the asymmetric demand shock represents the most efficient catalyst for the proliferation of the global price rises that have already been evidenced by the rapid widespread increase in the international trade prices of manufactured goods.

Widespread increase in interest rates

The growing structural imbalance between supply and demand looks set to trigger a very pronounced rise in interest rates as time goes by. There is also a significant risk that this movement will be accentuated by the structural decline in savings capacities on a global level.

And nor for what everyone has been waiting for: what does this all mean for equity markets. Well, it's not all that bad...

The rising power of the emerging economies comes at a high collective cost and raises many questions. To say that this picture does not evoke a scenario of harmonious growth would be an understatement. At the same time, neither does it necessarily evoke a depressive scenario.

Firstly, because as a result of these shifts many billions of people will gain access to an unprecedented level of development and revenues. Young countries with substantial natural resources will find themselves with a significant source of growth in a world of scant resources. Alongside the progress already made by Asia, this new environment will represent a powerful development platform for Africa, forming a trend that is already clearly under way.

Secondly, because long-term economic history shows that a certain level of constraint is needed to stimulate the innovation and transformation that has ultimately allowed mankind to progress. While it is clear that the innovation process is currently lagging behind the development of demand, it is the distortions created by this imbalance that should allow crucial progress to get the upper hand.

Finally, because the changes under way in the emerging world offer the developed world, with its aging and over-indebted population, the only true chance it has of avoiding the projected structural decline that it faces without this external impulsion. At the end of a 30-year process that began at the end of the 1970s with the realisation that, only by distributing wealth through the liberalisation of world trade could the global economy thrive in the long term, the circle is now complete and this is obviously welcome. The years of hyper-competition and flagging industrial employment are drawing to a close. While the decline in productivity gains may not bode well for corporate profitability, it nevertheless marks a radical shift in the environment for the employment markets of the developed countries which, combined with the growth opportunities offered by the emerging markets, provides them with a precious if not their sole support for future growth. What is more, the inflation that will accompany this global economic transition represents the only chance these countries have of reducing their enormous debt burdens in the long term.

The financial outlook for the coming years looks set to encounter all sorts of hurdles and sources of volatility, yet it is not irretrievably headed towards depression.

Alas, the sugarcoating quickly ends when one thinks realistically about things:

It is fair to say that shorter economic cycles, rising raw materials prices, the return of inflation and soaring interest rates undermine the medium-term outlook for the equity markets. Such conditions will no doubt cause continued uncertainty which will probably prevent the developed markets from finding their way for still several more years to come.

And the conclusion: the depression that the developed world lived through in the aftermath of Lehman is slowly shifting to the very same dynamo to carried the world across the abyss and has so far continued to push the global econmoy forward tirelessly.

Paradoxically it is the pressure that this new growth regime puts on the long-term performance of the emerging market capital markets that represents the biggest constraint to the development of the capital markets and their relative performance. The emerging markets have barely had time to absorb the changes that are currently taking place and, at this stage of their development, they would be far more vulnerable to problems created by high inflation.

However, if this were the case, then the characteristics of the Kondratien winter that should emerge in the developed world in the aftermath of the financial crisis could give way to a new Kondratief cycle dictated by the developments of the emerging world.

And yes, what look at the future would be complete without the good old Kondratieff cycle chart which sadly predict that we are now entering the last season of it all.

Indeed, winter will be marked by "concern, fear, panic and despair"; when there is virtually no credit following global credit crunch, when rates and vol fall due to a credit crisis, and when the only assets generating returns are gold, cash and bonds. This is the deflationary endgame, and the world's central banks know it. Throughout history this terminal deflationary threat is what always forces money printing authorities to make their last stand against the end of the cycle, knowing full well the status quo would implode in a singularity of risk off'ness, unless something is done. And that one something is always, without fail, the rampant printing of money to stave off deflation. Always. Without exception. Just open up a history book. And no. This time is never different.

Full SocGen report here:

When Demand Outstrips Supply - Copy


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Wed, 07/06/2011 - 22:25 | 1431540 JustPrintMoreDuh
JustPrintMoreDuh's picture

Does this not presume that the elites will fail in their attempts to wipe out >50% of the global population by then?

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 22:28 | 1431545 Guy Fawkes Mulder
Guy Fawkes Mulder's picture

The first rule of culling the masses is you do not talk about culling the masses.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 22:36 | 1431550 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

Even daddy Bush doesn't know WTF 'New World Order' means anymore...

It could be the zeitgeist society, it could be a libertarian utopia; it could be glorious Anarchy, which is as close to god as we could ever get...

Because by the definition of the elites for NWO... what EXACTLY is 'new' about it? Sounds like the same old bullshit.. corporate banker dictatorship, with bribed politicians in tow. 

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 22:37 | 1431563 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Nothing new under the sun.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:24 | 1431642 markmotive
markmotive's picture

The 'New World Order' has been discussed for 40+ years.



Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:24 | 1431702 asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

Tyler, can you please post a download link for the PDF



Thu, 07/07/2011 - 04:03 | 1431872 Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

I think he already did via Scribd, but if you look at the options there the author has "not allowed sharing/copying".

Almost all of the doc is in the post -- so best option is to bookmark this page for posterity and hope that if ZH have back-end colliwobbles, that Sacrilage can restore it from b/u.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 01:01 | 1431748 Drag Racer
Drag Racer's picture

'He who controls the spice, controls the universe'

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 02:07 | 1431811 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

Thats exactly what I was thinking, when everything breaks apart, all thats gona be left is farming.

Whoever owns the means to produce food will prosper, everyone else will starve die or turn into rampaging zombies driven by hunger madness.

Equipment needed:




Water source



o and

Dirt and place to keep said dirt safe.

Dirt might actually be worth more than gold one day.


Thu, 07/07/2011 - 03:14 | 1431853 Michael
Michael's picture

So far, we got Ron Paul the Congressman and his son Rand Paul the Senator in there for the next 5 1/2 years.

We're making progress.


Why doesn't Ron Paul campaign when he does interviews?

He should bring along visuals with him to take to the interviews.

He should show images of his 2008 campaign. Images of his Meetup Groups all over the planet.

What other candidate had that kind of support and still has, and more?


Thu, 07/07/2011 - 03:56 | 1431865 Max Fischer
Max Fischer's picture

Rand Paul? The goofy, curly-haired Tea Party hypocrite?

Is this the same idiot who infamously said, "There are no rich people. There are no poor people. We're all interconnected." ??  

Then, 10 seconds later, he says, "We all work for rich people or sell stuff to rich people."  

So let me get this straight....  rich people and poor people don't exist.... rich and poor are just false constructs of society?  But, then again, they do sorta exist because we "sell stuff" to them?  WTF?  Just another typical libertarian making absolutely no sense whatsoever.  


Or, are you talking about the Rand Paul who rants against government spending and the credibility of all government programs, yet who also admits that 50% of his income as an eye doctor came from Medicare and Medicaid?

Libertarians: The Party of Bitter, Doomer, Hypocritical American Goofballs

Social Darwinism/Sink or Swim/Unmitigated Lunacy 2012 

- Max Fischer, Civis Mundi




Thu, 07/07/2011 - 04:25 | 1431877 Michael
Michael's picture

If only we had something we could use to put in check human nature?

All social engineering the whiz kids could come up with at Harvard and Yale, to put in check human nature, could not and never will overcome human nature.

It's human nature to be as free as reasonably possible with a government that guarantees at least the minimum amount of Liberty to them.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 05:13 | 1431891 Guy Fawkes Mulder
Guy Fawkes Mulder's picture

Our rulers think they can put us into the Brave New World with reward-based everything.

For example, education is moving towards rewards for students and rewards for teachers for following the curriculum. Also, these XBox and computer online gaming networks all have points and "achievements" and rewards that keep people doing the same repetitive game yet feeling satisfaction.

Basically, the slave class of people is going to be the first one to have its humans' natures "improved".

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 07:01 | 1431927 Medea
Medea's picture

Principles by fiat. Nice.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 11:54 | 1432758 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

The 9th Rule of Fight Club
Newbies have to STFU and read their first 26 weeks...

Mr. 2 week inch cheese dick White House paid intern troll...

Hey, Max-i-Pad:
See if you can get around Valerie "Bitch-0-Matic" Jarrett and Michelle "I'll Kick Your Ass, Barry" Robinson-Soetoro and disconnect Obama Bin Lyin's teleprompter for laughs...

I dare you...

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 12:29 | 1432851 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Hey, douche, why don't you post the full quote?

PAUL: Well, the thing is, we're all interconnected. There are no rich, there are no middle class, there are no poor; we all are interconnected in the economy. You remember a few years ago when they tried to tax the yachts. That didn't work. You know who lost their jobs? The people making the boats, the guys making $50,000 and $60,000 a year lost their jobs.
We all either work for rich people or we sell stuff to rich people, so just punishing rich people is as bad for the economy as punishing anyone.
Let's not punish anyone. Let's keep taxes low and let's cut spending.

And he should turn away Medicare and Medicaid patients? People who need to use the services they've been coerced to pay for all their lives?

What a twat you are.


Thu, 07/07/2011 - 13:48 | 1433242 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

A 2 week troll twat, no less...

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 22:51 | 1431585 wisefool
wisefool's picture

yeah, GB1 is probably wearing depends right now.

GB2 is probably nuking his own TV diner.  Barbara gave interview explaining after the election, the SS dropped him off at the ranch, and he had to carry his own bags into the place.

There is a good show on history chanel showing that the presidency, before, during and after, really just is about the teleprompter. It is called "Its good to be president"

I love the NWO conspiracies as much as the next guy, but the whole thing, throughout history, usually is about coke and young whores. 


Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:07 | 1431616 Guy Fawkes Mulder
Guy Fawkes Mulder's picture


  • it could be the zeitgeist society
  • it could be a libertarian utopia
  • it could be glorious Anarchy
  • even daddy Bush doesn't know WTF 'New World Order' means anymore

Let's see... wrong, wrong, wrong, and most wrong.

No way could the world order go any of those first three ways, speaking in practical terms, knowing extant human nature so well as we do.

As why is the fourth definitely wrong?

The New World Order of GHWB is the wet-dream fantasy of a world run by a cabal of Luciferian elites, who have heretofore existed at and colluded from the tops of hierarchical, authoritarian institutions -- such as the CIA, the NSA, MI6, Mossad, the Freemasons, the Vatican, the Jesuits, the British Crown, the banking families, the families of capitalism's most successful tycoons (and have I left any out?) -- he might have used the phrase "NWO" in a different context, for the cameras in 1991, but I know what he meant in his heart. The idea of the NWO is an ancient one, and GHWB's conception of it has in no way altered since then. This is a cabal of nihilistic atheists who look up to the enlightened, enlightening spirit of "Lucifer", to raise themselves up to the status of Gods of the Earth and of the heavens. The plan is never complete, and the plan is passed down through the generations. Nothing new under the sun, indeed.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:43 | 1431731 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Must see:

A lot of what he says on this video is spot on.  Some of it isn't.

From 2008.


Thu, 07/07/2011 - 01:35 | 1431743 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

We know what they think, where they originate from, who they worship. Old News, and frankly.. who cares. This is the order that is dying. Institutions of control suppress evolution, to the benefit of those in power; but the spiritual initiative of human consciousness and the 'need to advance' will eventually over power these institutions... we already see the grid cracking from the pressure. Doubt it not: this order is doomed.

Our very awareness of them is their harbinger of destruction. It doesnt take an army to defeat them: just a mass mind psychological initiative of resistance.

The presumptive assumption that they will control the emerging order is false. With a simple change of leadership, all dynamics change.. especially filtering out the globalist leadership in China and Russia.

Sooner or later everything will clash; most likely when the corrupt laws they keep writing are no longer enforceable, and the enforcers themselves (us) become the new leadership. The next 'elite' generation is incapable, or unwilling to contiune this system, because their institutional 'cover' is dwindling away: the main stream media losing its credibility, religion fading as illegitimate to agnostic intellectualism, education becoming scorned as a useless indoctrination, and the State itself scorned as absolutely corrupted and controlled by international banking interests. Money? We all know that currency is fiat, and money is debt. Gold is rising because of one reason: The institution of currency is collapsing.

It wont stop: Any 'new world order' must be an alternative outcome to what we have now..  

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 01:35 | 1431776 old naughty
old naughty's picture


ALL spots on... +100

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 01:41 | 1431778 Blanche DuBois
Blanche DuBois's picture

@66 that's the best news I've heard in a long time....thus, I hope and change in your prophesy!

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:35 | 1432044 Mad Cow
Mad Cow's picture

If history is a guide, even recent history, is that there is no mass enlightenment after the fall of a system. It should be pretty obvious looking at the last century of failed systems that, the masses, after a failure, wait for the next group of sociopaths to herd them into the next pen for fleecing. Sorry about that. Look outside this world for your answers. In the meantime, look to protect yourself, and your small tribe, for survival into the next system, by staying on the fringes. Much easier to escape stampedes.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 06:15 | 1431902 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture


The proponents of a grand NWO conspiracy are the counterparts to the intelligent design proponents within the Dismal Science.  After all, how else can one rationalize the specified complexity of the modern statist political and economic machine?  The proposition, however, does provide for an interesting perspective on the Vampire Squid's claims to be doing "God's work."  



Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:48 | 1432045 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

Hey Guy,  excuse my ignorance, I am still learning but I do not recognize the person that the statue represents.  Is it FDR?

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 13:34 | 1433187 Guy Fawkes Mulder
Guy Fawkes Mulder's picture


Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:01 | 1431683 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture


"Even daddy Bush doesn't know WTF 'New World Order' means anymore..."


Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:30 | 1432005 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

Totally agree with one modification, the politicians are in the front line driving this 'change' and are fodder for the cannons.  Mere pawns to be sacrificed at the pleasure of the NWO.  What a price to pay for a few coins and the satisfaction of being a little yapping lap dog.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 01:35 | 1431775 Maxter
Maxter's picture

I like the picture.  I wonder why the tabs hasn't been vandalized yet?

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 01:50 | 1431791 Guy Fawkes Mulder
Guy Fawkes Mulder's picture

They have been vandalized before, a little:

Now... why haven't they been vandalized to dust?

Good question!

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:00 | 1431570 TomJoad
TomJoad's picture

Back in the ancient times I was a Microbiology major (parents pushed me towards pre-med). Without exception my professors in Virology, Bacteriology, and Infectious Disease had received their Ph.D's courtesy of Uncle Sam.

EVERY SINGLE ONE of them had worked in biowarfare throughout the Cold War. Maybe they didn't call it that, but that is what it was. I am pretty sure we didn't just "properly dispose" of all those decades of valuable product just because we signed some treaty. I am frankly quite amazed that we have not yet had an epidemic of some engineered pathogen with a 50%+ mortality rate. To horrifying to contemplate? I'm sure it gets contemplated plenty at at the highest levels of government.  


Jump! You Fuckers!

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:55 | 1431678 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

Too unpredictable.  

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:34 | 1431725 Drag Racer
Drag Racer's picture

just wait...

"Every weapon ever devised in history for war has at some point been used.", from my chem warfare instructor.

They can easily target specific genetic traits and even a single person for attach by a pathogen. They is no place to hide. Why do you think they are collecting everyone dna??????????

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 01:52 | 1431793 macholatte
macholatte's picture

Why do you think they are collecting everyone dna?


There's the rub, 'ol man.   Nobody collecting any DNA from the hoards living in Africa, China, India, Mexico, Mid East, Bangladesh, Pakistan or any other shit hole you can think of. The target is mostly white folk, who are dying off anyway because their reproductive rate is less than needed to maintain the race because they are prosperous. 20 years from now the Muslims will have multiplied 3 fold and be the dominant group groveling for blood.

Dusting is a good example of the futility of trying to put things right. As soon as you dust, the fact of your next dusting has already been established.
George Carlin

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:37 | 1432023 UgglyBetty
UgglyBetty's picture

Seems to me that the biggest threat comes in the form of mandatory vaccines no one needs, made up of rubbish. But sure they will resort to some form of real pandemic when need be, not like the last flu scams.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 22:26 | 1431543 FluffyCone
FluffyCone's picture

Get in on baby...

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:17 | 1431618 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Uh oh..

Babies gonna' psych them all out.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 22:35 | 1431547 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture


Wed, 07/06/2011 - 22:35 | 1431558 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Odds seem high that oil scarcity will trigger the relevant depopulating wars in this time frame, rendering all this analysis pointless.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:04 | 1431684 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Odds seem high that oil water scarcity will trigger the relevant depopulating wars in this time frame, rendering all this analysis pointless.


There... fixed it 4 ya

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:06 | 1431686 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

How come the strikethru function never seems to work here?

Nee another donation? 

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 01:01 | 1431749 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Water's only scarce in an oil-dominated world.  So the one assumption invalidates the other, and you're both right.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 10:09 | 1432277 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Oil, while it is an especially useful example of concentrated potential energy, is not the only example thereof.

Technology exists that can remove impurities from water so that it may be more useful to sustain life.   Some potential energy is consumed in the process.

Control of large scale energy resources is the way the Power Elites control their subjects.  Implicit in this control is the necessity to limit availability of realistic alternate sources of energy that are not (or cannot be) under their control.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 22:36 | 1431559 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Thorough....been said before....many times...slow process but oil gold, silver and fertilizer demand is soaring and will continue to soar with minor bumps imo.

I like the charts and graphs....

Thank you for posting this article.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 22:41 | 1431566 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

A discussion of the limits of growth might be more important. Tripling the number of cars that drive on what? Gravel roads? Powered by what? Wind? Driven by people who eat what? iPads?

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:28 | 1431717 Rynak
Rynak's picture

In a word: Stagflation.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 22:42 | 1431568 pepperspray
pepperspray's picture

Ted Williams' head for president in 2032

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 22:43 | 1431571 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Don't forget how important it is to lie. Well, at least when it is important to do so.

What a clusterfuck. It's not if. It IS when.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 22:44 | 1431574 jomama
jomama's picture

an insightful, great summary/read.

thanks for posting.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 22:48 | 1431578 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Which brings me to our 'friends 'on the drug AKA the political Left. Get real or get extinct. I understand that you have been abused/used/lied too/raped spiritually.

Now is the time to walk away. The Pimp of lies that has been taking advantage of your idealism needs to drown,

Get real and join life.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:09 | 1431619 Maniac Researcher
Maniac Researcher's picture

I suppose your wannabe internet tough guy schtick is your attempt at getting real then, no? You've got nothing to offer. You barely understand yourself - thus, how are you going to understand your so-called adversaries? [the "left" isn't your enemy, btw - your insignificance shines through quite clearly]

While you're wasting your precious time, here's some required reading that doesn't require a debate on the problematic nature of K-waves:

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:12 | 1431697 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

All I got out of your 'required reading' was that if I don't vote for Obama in 2012 we might be at risk of another OK City bombing...

Anything relevant to add to that?...

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:18 | 1431704 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

To make it more simple for you (& I apologize in advance for appearing to speak for the masses here)... but...

People aren't frustrated with Obama because he's black... Instead, they're frustrated with him because he's a TELEPROMPTER reading puppet imbecile... I'm sure they'll all be just as frustrated with the NEXT TELEPROMPTER reading puppet imbecile (so as to soothe your psyche)...

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 02:00 | 1431807 macholatte
macholatte's picture

People aren't frustrated with Obama because he's black...

he's also a communist and a racist and probably a Muslim and a well documented liar. An empty suit.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 02:16 | 1431816 Maniac Researcher
Maniac Researcher's picture

...yes and an alien, too, macholatte. Now who's the bullshit repeating puppet? There's plenty of reasons to disagree [and take action against] the policies of the Obama administration...but from where I'm standing, you barely have the sophistication to wear pants.

Likewise, The Dude would very likely be annoyed by your simplistic "if A then that automatically means B" mentality. Of course, that's just my

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 20:42 | 1434632 macholatte
macholatte's picture

You can't handle the truth or the discussion, so turn to chapter 3 of Alynski and change to a posture of ridicule. You are indeed a "bullshit repeating puppet".

We know Obama is a communist because he told us he is.

We know he's a Progressive because he told us he is.

We know he hates white people because he told us he does.

He is the first person to be President without a clear history of where he came from. He signed an executive order sealing his personal records.

His chief of Staff is a wall street banker.


The list goes on and on and I choose not to waste any more time with a numbskull like you.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 02:09 | 1431812 Maniac Researcher
Maniac Researcher's picture

So you speak for the masses, Francis? What do they think about K-waves?

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 05:39 | 1431896 destiny
destiny's picture

This proves to show how imbecile they themselves are...pathetic...

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 01:52 | 1431795 Blanche DuBois
Blanche DuBois's picture

Hey, Maniac! Can you say F-A-L-S-E F-L-A-G? And try not to fall for the right-wing, gun-tottin', racist, homophobe white militia men are gonna come and get us too! Thanks!

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 02:27 | 1431825 Maniac Researcher
Maniac Researcher's picture

Unless you have some evidence of a false-flag plot that can be examined, shut your pie hole.

ps. I will cheerfully tear apart anything that is not primary source material. If you don't know what that term is, redirect your keister to a local library.


Thu, 07/07/2011 - 02:45 | 1431833 Max Fischer
Max Fischer's picture

A library?

Keep in mind, most ZH readers are staunch libertarians.  Since libraries are typically government funded, all libraries should be viewed with extreme contempt.  

Libertarians: The Hate Party  

Social Darwinism/Sink or Swim 2012

-Max Fisher, Civis Mundi


Thu, 07/07/2011 - 02:47 | 1431839 Blanche DuBois
Blanche DuBois's picture

Like an OKCity Bombing referenced in your source, don't need mine!

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 03:24 | 1431858 Maniac Researcher
Maniac Researcher's picture

Was that supposed to be some sort of comeback? I guess you got lost on the way to the library.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 06:07 | 1431899 Husk-Erzulie
Husk-Erzulie's picture

+1 for most utter BS link.  Could be a ZH hall of famer.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 22:48 | 1431579 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

While the expansion of the production platform took place primarily in Asia, it was the West that enjoyed the improvement in return on capital.


We are exporting wealth, bring back the manufacturing!


Nothing unsurprising in this article, considering the end of expansion.

Columbia vs Argentina was weak.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 22:49 | 1431581 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Wither Western neo-colonialism? 

In the end, all empires suffer from being spoiled by their spoils (the loving of anything imported). Values erode to conform to the new materialism. Until nothing else matters but materialism itself (greed is good). Money gets printed (currency debased) to support the habit. And compromises get made (debts aren't repaid). And things crumble on from there.  

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:49 | 1431741 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

"In the end, all empires suffer from being spoiled by their spoils"

that's a good line....

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 22:53 | 1431588 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Fantastic? Sure, from a charting, mostly linear extrapolation perspective, great. But the reality is let's survive the next two months and two years, loaded with all kinds of six-sigma and beyond events in every sphere of our existences. Then we'll see all these cookie cutter scenarios play out.

But there is a big 3 letter word that tends to 4 letter word us quite badly, and it's coming.

Something tells me we will not be pondering sales figures too much longer.


Thu, 07/07/2011 - 01:45 | 1431783 old naughty
old naughty's picture

and aging is the least we have to worry about...

thanks for sharing, ORI.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 22:53 | 1431589 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Maybe my wife and I will spend our sunset years in Peru...

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:28 | 1431716 jomama
jomama's picture

good move.  was thinking chile myself.  asap.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:56 | 1431746 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

If the choice is between spending your golden years in Peru and the US, then Peru is the way to go. 

Ceviche + pisco sours > Pizza Hut + Bud Light

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 22:54 | 1431591 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

This report is complete bullshit. 

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:13 | 1431628 akak
akak's picture

Elaborate, don't just pontificate.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:26 | 1431644 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture


That's elaborative enough.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:59 | 1431680 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I'll side with mista mista robert d on this one...

Starting with this...

"The unprecedented economic and financial crisis of 2008 has abruptly altered the course of history and there is no doubt that its effects will have a sustained influence on future developments. However, the crisis itself represents the expression of the end of the excess created by the previous situation and its consequences should play only a secondary role in comparison to the powerful structural changes that are currently sweeping across the globe, namely changing demographic trends, the explosion of demand in emerging countries and the resurgence of physical constraints to growth."

Yeah... AS IF it's all encapsulated within the "unprecedented financial crisis of 2008"... I'm sure nobody saw THAT coming!...

All the fucking bolded pieces after that are historical crosscurrents of a lava flow that's been more than 40 (and probably more than 100 years in the making)...

I can get more detailed synthetic observations by watching "C'MON MAN" on espn...






Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:33 | 1431723 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

hey, _sawyer!  i opened the page b4 yer comment was up and ended up respondind to the same Z's w/ the same quote, below.  then, i saw yours. 

you need help, dude!

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:10 | 1431694 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

No.... it's not.    Your comment lacks substance.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:48 | 1431740 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture


Thu, 07/07/2011 - 01:05 | 1431752 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Silver's gonna be under $20 in a week, right?

Fuckin' blowhard.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:29 | 1431718 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

hey you guys:

i've looked into this K cycle.  K was a pretty cogent and vibrantly-thinking economist.  imagine a child born in 1892 to russian peasants, growing up in pre-revolutionary times in late czarist russia, and being in with the winning side!  smart guy, too.  Nikolai Kondratiev - Wikipedia,   is worth reading just to see how he fell from favor by about '27, was removed from his position in '28, arrrested in '30, imprisoned till '38, retried, sentenced to life in prison, then taken out and shot by a firing squad. 

comrades, do any economists, today, deserve less?

anyhow, while not agreeing totally w/ bob_d, i think i see what he means.  here are two sentences from this article: 

The unprecedented economic and financial crisis of 2008 has abruptly altered the course of history and there is no doubt that its effects will have a sustained influence on future developments. However, the crisis itself represents the expression of the end of the excess created by the previous situation and its consequences should play only a secondary role in comparison to the powerful structural changes that are currently sweeping across the globe, namely changing demographic trends, the explosion of demand in emerging countries and the resurgence of physical constraints to growth.

ok, now the first sentence i can understand and maybe agree with, it is so vague.  the second sentence (highlighted in bold in the article)---well, if someone were to refer to that as bovine defecation, i would not object. 

socGen is advertising something, here.  this is a commercial presentation.  maybe it is even right.  i don't have a problem with it.  $2 tril later, it's still kondratieff, smart as ever.  V the chairzelbub who has an invention called a printing press.  wiki has a picture of the russian guy and he looks like a pretty nice guy.  but, if he were alive today, looking at this mess, he'd probably take the chairsatan out and shoot him, himself! 

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:41 | 1431734 Drag Racer
Drag Racer's picture

how about this...

1980-2005, 'governments withdraw from economic affairs'

what???  on what planet??

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 02:52 | 1431836 MrPalladium
MrPalladium's picture

+1000, Bullseye!!!

Further, I don't see how one can do a valid demographic analysis without taking into account average IQ of the populations of the various countries.

Economic development is the process of increasing the specialization of labor through the building of a very complex society. It takes large numbers of high IQ people to manage and execute that process, and finally, to maintain that complex society.

I hate to have to bring this up, but the above analysis assumes that the human capital in all areas of the world is equal. It takes no account whatever of the data that is right in front of our faces but which we refuse to recognize. China, Russia - yes. India perhaps. Latin America, not very likely, and Africa - only after a couple of centuries of a very severe (and to all egalitarians, repulsive) eugenics program.

Demographic analyses that assume human equality (or simply ignore the issue) are useless.

But why do I bother. It is this delusion born of the 18th Century Enlightenment that will create the real opportunities for profit over the next 50 years. For as long as the secular religion of Human Equality survives among the overwhelming majority of investors, it will lead to overpricing of the less promising countries and the under-pricing of the more promising.

Curiously, the piece above did not even give a nod to Tainter's classic "The Collapse of Complex Societies" and its central thesis of the diminishing marginal returns on additional investments in complexity (ultimately evolving into negative absolute returns)  as a problem solving tool.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:51 | 1431675 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Best I coul make of it is that the upcoming KWinter 'might' be a solution for global warming (or thereabouts)...

Al Gore must be fucking pissed his 15 minutes of fame are over...


Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:01 | 1431607 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Very well done.  This is not the first time the continent of Europe has been "denuded" for lack of a better term of a large chunk of humans.  That can and in my opinion will change.  I still believe the historical role of Americans to stand for life as best it can.  There is no antidote for evil other than being and doing good.  Europe was ready for the Marshal Plan after WWII.  It is not ready nor is it asking for help now.  Events will therefore play out.  In the world of diplomacy it is known as "ripeness" and so it will be this time as well.  In my opinion once the "cheese is ready" i forsee good things happening both in the USA and Europe.  Clearly "we're in the Fromage phase." 

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:05 | 1431613 Glasater55
Glasater55's picture

Will be studying this article for awhile. But just thought of global "cooling" and how that could be a factor unaccounted for in the charts and summary. Crops are about a month behind in our area and harvest will be pushing into the time when frosts can come on.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:05 | 1431615 gbresnahan
gbresnahan's picture

Being one of those fools who is responsible with money/credit/debt/etc, I have not more to say than-> I get the message, loud and clear.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:09 | 1431620 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

And that one something is always, without fail, the rampant printing of money to stave off deflation. Always. Without exception. Just open up a history book. And no. This time is never different.


not even with an extraterrestrial event-horizon printing press provided by alien bankers from Alpha-Centauri?

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:45 | 1431737 Drag Racer
Drag Racer's picture

maybe if that extraterrestrial 'horizon' had not spilled all their 'ink' in the gulf...

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:11 | 1431622 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

dabbl post

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:10 | 1431623 snakehead
snakehead's picture

Doesn't this presume that China's alchemists will be able to turn sand and poison into water?

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:22 | 1431631 akak
akak's picture

Hell, if the Chinese can already turn plastic into rice, melamine into dog food, lead into toys, and a mountain of otherwise worthless US Treasuries into a neo-colonial economic empire, what can't they do?

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:28 | 1431647 three chord sloth
three chord sloth's picture


Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:19 | 1431636 QuantumCat
QuantumCat's picture

Hmmm, me thinks that the harshest part of winter is still to come. Interest rates can still rise during winter as a function of credit risk as opposed to inflationary risk. Even fiat has a limitation... it must be borrowed. Defaults and debt limits are deflationary, and there is much more to come. Once that pain train of slave paper (debt) passes (and there is a lot of it), the stage will be set for the hyper-inflationary endgame, but not until then.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:23 | 1431641 QuantumCat
QuantumCat's picture

Oh, and winter usually brings out the best in mankind... brutal wars. That might just curb the demand problem a little bit.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 02:30 | 1431826 Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

QuantumCat ... Ha! what a great handle! I probably shouldn't post this, but your mere name has made me go all ... well, poetic ...

Schrodinger's cat took Pavlov's dog,
Out for a walk one day,
And Keynes and Hayek tagged along,
While Einstein began to pray:

“May the god who rolls the dice,
Who wields the power of Fire and Ice,
Find just one righteous and think twice,
Before the snake-eyes fall?”

The clever cat addressed Lord Keynes,
As the sky became as brass,
“Do you have Power o’er the rains?
And make Energy of Mass?”

Then Pavlov’s pooch was sore afraid,
And cowed ‘twixt Hayek’s legs,
He knew who had the Power and who
Was Just sucking eggs.

That Mortal Man may be seduced,
Is plain as paper promises,
And that his strength may be reduced,
And chained by vain imagining,
Of turning stones to bread at the behest of
This world’s extant King.

Well, you get what you pay for ... as you were!

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:25 | 1431643 three chord sloth
three chord sloth's picture

So... to sum it all up: The workforce will shrink, labor will be scarcer and therefore better paid. But the costs of pensions & medicine will eat up all of the rising wages (and more), and there won't be enough raw materials or investment capital to go around. And to top it all off, you'll never get anywhere 'cause there will always be some old guy in front of you, in a baseball cap, doing 25 in a 40 mph zone, with nowhere to go and all day to get there!

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:33 | 1431657 akak
akak's picture

"Get da Hell offa my lawn!"

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 02:58 | 1431845 MrPalladium
MrPalladium's picture

+1 Gran Torino!!!

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:15 | 1431700 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

"And to top it all off, you'll never get anywhere 'cause there will always be some old guy in front of you, in a baseball cap, doing 25 in a 40 mph zone, with nowhere to go and all day to get there!"

That last line TCS. Priceless visual of the High-way life.
Been stuck behind one to many Pontiac bonniville's doing 30 in the fast lane.

The problem was always more in the Northeast.
Out west, those old fogies hauled azz!


Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:40 | 1431732 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

if the old guy was on a bike, it coulda been me.  BiCheZ.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:32 | 1431653 Herbert_guthrie
Herbert_guthrie's picture

Cycles can only be predicted through historical analysis.

There were no computers, flash trades, round-the-world derivatives, etc. during the past, so comparisons are not applicable today.

We are entering a new economic phase without precedent.

And I have a feeling this new phase is going to hurt a bit.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:20 | 1431706 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Same things will happen -- only faster.   It was stated in the article that the cycles would compress.    Your thesis may be correct only in the sense that the older processing took longer, but the depth and overall make up of the events will be similar to past events.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:51 | 1431745 Drag Racer
Drag Racer's picture

technology has always changed, people have never changed. Therefore your argument that 'comparisons are not applicable today' is absolute junk.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:33 | 1431656 Herbert_guthrie
Herbert_guthrie's picture

The coming Kondratieff winter could be an economic nuclear winter.......

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 01:49 | 1431788 old naughty
old naughty's picture

agreed...and the arriving Grand Cycle could be so long-tunnel dark...

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:35 | 1431659 mo gotti
mo gotti's picture

If I'm reading the cyclical chart correctly, it appears that we are very near spring.  Isn't it ironic (as Morpheus said, "Fate, it seems, is not without a sense of irony") that the darkest hour is right before the dawn?  Yes we may still be a few years away, but when Bill Gross starts making buckets of billions on his short treasury stance, spring will be here.


Meanwhile, keep your sweater and scarf handy!



Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:22 | 1431710 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I'd say we are about at 4 o'clock.   It's not any where as deep as it will get.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 10:10 | 1432281 Freebird
Freebird's picture


Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:36 | 1431660 latizziforchizzi
latizziforchizzi's picture

These people think they have it all figured out, but they do not. God will not show them any mercy whatsoever.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:43 | 1431667 snakehead
snakehead's picture

Did He tell you that specifically?  Was it a memo or did you receive a personal visit, a Tweet, a txt message or what?  And please, is He long or short pm? And which horse is going to take the KY Derby next year?


Thu, 07/07/2011 - 10:47 | 1432415 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

There is no credible evidence that "God" is a "He".  It seems more likely, even necessary, that "God" is sexless, an "It".

"God", like "Mother Nature" (who is just another manifestation of "God") is never "merciful".   It's illogical.   Some properties of "God" are long and short PMs.  And as far as which horse is going to the the KY Derby, it will be the fastest one that finishes (assuming it doesn't get disqualified).  That's the one you should bet on.

Spinoza provided a most elegant proof of what "God" is nearly 400 years ago.  He also proved that, fundamentally, western religion is nonsense,  a giant scam.  So The Powers That Be have successfully repressed Spinoza.

"Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by the rulers as useful." -- Lucius Annaeus Seneca

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:38 | 1431664 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

 And if my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle.

 Bob, I agree with you, total BS.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 10:50 | 1432433 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

No, she'd be your uncle's gay significant other.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:46 | 1431671 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

More charts from Soc Gen...

Oh joy!

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:50 | 1431673 Sunshine n Lollipops
Sunshine n Lollipops's picture

Well, that was enlightening. Depressing, but enlightening.

So the gravy train is leavin' the station. Takin' that gravy elsewhere, to people who've never even tasted gravy, just seen pictures of it. Enjoy that delicious gravy, third world emergers. Sorry we hogged it for so long, but once you get a taste of it, you'll understand why we put it in a full-nelson hammerlock. It's gooooooood.

Withdrawal's gonna be a bitch.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 01:32 | 1431773 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

1) send slewie $89.95

2) receive free shipping on a nice box labelled: ACME WITHDRAWAL KIT which you can then open at a site from which you wish to withdraw. 

3) lifetime ACME Guarantee!

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 02:06 | 1431810 Sunshine n Lollipops
Sunshine n Lollipops's picture

lol. nice.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 23:51 | 1431676 tom121
tom121's picture

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Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:24 | 1431711 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Maybe one of those sites can teach you how to post an active link....

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 01:43 | 1431779 Richardk888
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Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:07 | 1431689 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Lol@ "government withdrawal from economic affairs" from the period 1980-2005.  Simply can't stop laughing at that one. 

Also a hilarious assumption that we will even still drive cars in 10+ years.  By then we could have "cars" that fly themselves or some hybrid plane/car that we control or who the hell knows. 

There can and probably will be another breakthrough similar to the Internet by 2025 which would make the bulk of this report utterly meaningless.  Or the Internet will just continue to grow and evolve to fill the role of human labor ever more efficiently. 

Calling out "looming shortages" 5+ years in advance is silly.  Industries can change and adapt to meet these needs or new industries can pop up.  Horse and buggy supply is pretty limited now, but no one gives a fuck. 

Also I'm a silver/gold/oil bull but I just don't get why people are calling for an utter collapse of society, where there's suddenly no more food, water, power, internet, TV, or commerce in general.  Let's just assume the USD collapses in violent fashion, which I believe it will eventually.  So we wake up and the dollar has lost, say, 50% of its value.  People will still want to eat, buy things, produce things.  What's stopping me, as a holder of, say 5000 oz of silver, to simply start hiring people to work for silver?  I can open a restaurant, and use some silver to barter for land, tables, food, etc.  Then I also accept payment in silver from my customers.  Of course this would take some time but if things got desperate why would this not be the natural outcome?  Barter.  Of course only a small % of people own silver, but it would quickly start circulating, and become common.  Sure, the early buyers such as myself would benefit immensly, but what good is silver or gold if no one has the means to actually trade/buy it from you?  Sure, gold could be "worth" 50,000 USD but what if bread is $10k a loaf?  Gold could also be "worth" a new Lexus but if they aren't being produced then what good is it?  Society crumbling just will not happen, if it does happen it will be very very brief and things will resume and improve fast.  Especially now that we have literally decades of people calling for the collapse of the USD.  You think people will be walking around with the deer in headlights look when it happens?  Some sheeple will  but all we need are some smart investors who have silver and are willing to start new businesses. 

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:06 | 1432100 UgglyBetty
UgglyBetty's picture

LRCF, you are right in your idea that life goes on after a currency crush, but... Let me tell you, I live in one of those countries that has changed currency seeeeeeeeveral times now from 1950's and we are kind of accustomed to wait for the next time the "current" currency will crash and the cycle that comes next.
Of course life goes on, but not with a significant increase in poverty and loss of liberty. Barter is a possibility that's been tried before. Here we resorted to barter like 10 years ago, it worked for a while but guess what? NOOO taxes from barter soooooo "suddenly" it stopped working. People had invented a kind of "barter checks" to be used as currency in those barter centers... but then when everything was going on... fake "barter checks" appeared and the system lost credibility... You can imagine who were behind that...
My point is, you are right in that people can and will survive, but for one thing, poverty rises inevitably and wealth concentrates more, and for the other, in the strife for wealth there is an actor named Government that will not stand passive and see how people survive on their own, they will use the monopoly of power they are entitled to intervene and limit your chances and maintain the status quo.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 09:11 | 1432120 UgglyBetty
UgglyBetty's picture

Forgot to say... Gov't and all kinds of parasites that come with it... and are used to not doing anything productive, but living out of those who work.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:09 | 1431692 zen0
zen0's picture

what are they selling?


How do you trade the apocalypse?


It is only the young that fear the apocalypse. Aging is a personal apocalypse. That is more immediate than all this theoretical musing.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 01:11 | 1431755 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

You're old. 

The young don't fear the apocalypse.  They've been hearing about it from you old farts forever, and y'all have never been right about ANYTHING.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:41 | 1432031 zen0
zen0's picture

If you are born during the apocalpse, how do you know if it is the apocalypse?

You would probably just think it was normal.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 08:49 | 1432048 OldTrooper
OldTrooper's picture

I remember the days I too was bullet-proof and indestructible and my dad was an idiot...

It's amazing how much smater he's gotten in the last 30 years!

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 18:44 | 1434386 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

The world didn't end back in the '70s, though, did it?  Where's dad now?


Get over it.

As for me, I'm a far cry from "young."  But I expect to avoid the outlook of an old man until the day I die, possibly in my seventies.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 01:45 | 1431781 Richardk888
Richardk888's picture

Former says it in your link there

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:33 | 1431721 Korg
Korg's picture

Peak Oil bitches!!!


War will change the whole game just like in WW2


Who in 1935 predicted the American Century????


Thu, 07/07/2011 - 01:19 | 1431759 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

norma jeane baker, in foster care, on her 7th birthday.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:33 | 1431722 fcamargoe
fcamargoe's picture

Interesting research but I think it contradicts itself. i.e. the high growth in autos cant be possible if one of the central thesis is the shortage of supply. Therefore oil will be very high and that will lead to higher investment towards public transportation. Furthermore, metal prices would also be very high.

Moreover, there is not enough agriable land to feed a growing percentage of the population whose diet shifts from rice to beef. Its simple, higher demand for beef, means higher prices of other commodities that are used as feed, and thereby the price of beef also rises. Higher oil prices dont help. Its simply illogical to assume that the growing middle class from EM can sustain the same lifestyle that americas middle class has enjoyed.

Higher commodity prices will have an impact, but the issue is structural. We only have a limited amount of natural resources. Furthermore as excess capacity in Asia is reduced, it will bring inflation to the DM. Assuming that American and EU corporations are still the main exporters of goods that the middle class want, they will also be exporting inflation. And I dont see a good track record from EM in controlling inflation. So it might be better to analyze this data using fractal and chaos theory models. Both would show periods of boom and eventual bust as resources diminish. Implying that the only way for world's population to keep increasing and expect a larger middle class is to find inovative solutions to our energy, food, and waste disposal. Also improvement in education and a reform in the imigration policy in the US. Its absurd that we are training the brightest minds but we dont allow them to stay in our country.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:49 | 1431738 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Say what you will about the NWO (Which I am a firm believer).

They are beginning to awaken to the growing threat around them:

"For the first time in human history almost all of humanity is politically activated, politically conscious and politically interactive... The resulting global political activism is generating a surge in the quest for personal dignity, cultural respect and economic opportunity in a world painfully scarred by memories of centuries-long alien colonial or imperial domination... [The] major world powers, new and old, also face a novel reality: while the lethality of their military might be greater than ever, their capacity to impose control over the politically awakened masses of the world is at a historic low. To put it bluntly: in earlier times, it was easier to control one million people than to physically kill one million people; today, it is infinitely easier to kill one million people than to control one million people."


-Zbigniew Brzezinski

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:45 | 1431739 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

For Seniors:

Thursday, June 30, 2011
Posted: 2 pm ET

As Congress struggles with ways to reduce the federal deficit, one of the approaches that appears to be among the most likely to be adopted is a revision in the way the Consumer Price Index is calculated.

The classic CPI is used to measure the cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security recipients. If Social SecuSwitching to the chained CPI would reduce Social Security COLAs by about 0.3 of a percentage point each year, the Congressional Budget Office estimates, saving the federal government more than $200 billion over the next 10 years. Most of the savings would come from lower Social Security benefits and lower retirement benefits for federal employees, whose increases also are tied to the CPI.

Switching to the chained CPI would reduce Social Security COLAs by about 0.3 of a percentage point each year, the Congressional Budget Office estimates, saving the federal government more than $200 billion over the next 10 years. Most of the savings would come from lower Social Security benefits and lower retirement benefits for federal employees, whose increases also are tied to the CPI

Read more: Cut Social Security COLAs? |

Hope for the best...prepare for the worst.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 00:49 | 1431742 HAL 9000
HAL 9000's picture

Perhaps I'm just projecting my own concern about it. I know I've never completely freed myself of the suspicion that there are some extremely odd things about this mission. I'm sure you'll agree there's some truth in what I say.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 01:20 | 1431762 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

I'd say that's a very difficult question to answer, except it isn't.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 01:12 | 1431756 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

 Amen Zeno

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 02:24 | 1431767 JR
JR's picture

This is the story of Little Red Riding Hood told by the Wolf.  And the punch line has been left out: Man will fight for liberty and that’s more important than all SocGen’s economic models.

This big picture report is not so much a prediction for the future as it is a congratulatory walk through the past highlighting the successes of resource exploitation of developed countries, and the domination of oligarch capital over weak political regimes.

It is banker revisionist history.  It is the glory of the central bankers and their pretend competiveness in a global market place.  The end of communism?  The expansion of the capitalist model?  The glory of GATT and the WTO?  The coming of competitive advantages?  The witnessing of less state intervention?

And, now, for our future, SocGen with its substantial global presence tells us “developments in global governance will be vital.” These are the words of the exploiters who would bind our future “in an increasing number of economic and financial domains.” 

The 25-cent words of demand versus supply paradigms mask the lies that bankers have been telling for years.  IMO, the coming New World Order will have an ingredient the bankers never planned on and this is the theme that will rain on their parade.  And that is the middle class revolution against the financial tyrants who had planned earlier to be in charge of our future.   The events of the Middle East are a portent of what’s going to be happening in western countries as citizens resist the wide spread theft of their livelihoods by the oligarchs and the government Leviathan they created.

SocGen and the bankers, I concede, could say they’ve had a good return on their investments... and that now things are going to get ugly – especially if they end up hanging from lamp posts.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 01:32 | 1431769 gwar5
gwar5's picture


1. Billions of Chinese, Indians, and Brazilians entering the middle class will put great pressure on global demand...... gee, who knew?

2. Jim Rogers was early and right.... farmers will be driving the Bentleys this time around.

3. What the hell is the West doing putting all our natural resources in the Al Gore "lock box" when we all have aging populations to take care of??

4. JPM's corner on the copper market and Goldmad Sacks global network of aircraft hanger size metals warehouses making sense now.

5. The world is heading into stormy seas and Obama already has us shipwrecked at the dock with pirates on board. Sweet.



Thu, 07/07/2011 - 01:46 | 1431785 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

now, now, it's not so bad, gwar.  pirates are very experienced @ shipwrecks!  i am such a great navigator, that there are time when i know for certain that i am gonna run up on a reef.  besides, we're not from the goobermint, and we're here to accept your help. 

how would you like to be in charge of all this damned rum?  huh?

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 02:12 | 1431814 Debugas
Debugas's picture

increase in demand will not materialize unless people actually have well paying jobs

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 02:44 | 1431834 pebblewriter
pebblewriter's picture

Obama offers social security, medicare cuts to close the debt ceiling deal.  I say, "so what?"

Will it really make a difference, even if they can come to an agreement?


Thu, 07/07/2011 - 12:13 | 1432850 linrom
linrom's picture

They pretend that by fixing "future unfunded liabilities" bogeyman, the world can pay off existing PRIVATE DEBT by simple austerity measures? Any savings gotten this way will ony serve to increase direct interest payments to the bankers and socialization of private debt at the expense of taxpayers.  There won't be any reduction of budgets.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 02:46 | 1431837 pcrs
pcrs's picture

Who does he mean with the industrialized countries?Countries with industry like China or the west?

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 02:47 | 1431838 goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

The last few paragraphs are telling; that in order to forestall deflation and the end of capital advancement, countries must print money endlessly to add value where it otherwise would not naturally occur.  Thus, inflation abound.  At some point, regardless of central banks raising rates to quell it, there will be rampant inflation, IMO.  QE, Its like throwing gasoline on a pile of wet wood. Time after time you get no light and then one day the match that's thrown finally sparks an uncontrollable explosion.

Thu, 07/07/2011 - 02:51 | 1431843 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture



...Hmmm...still equals huge World War to me...



Thu, 07/07/2011 - 03:45 | 1431862 Dempster
Dempster's picture


I’m curious about this ‘return of inflation’ thing.

When virtually all money is created as debt bearing interest, and pretty much always has been, then surely there has always been inflation, and there will always be inflation.

How can something return, when it’s always been here?



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