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Commentary From the Resident BoomBustBlog Trader: Focus on Currencies
Just a few snippets on currencies. This email was sent on the 8th,
and should have been published then. It was actually rather prescient.
Now it could be time to look at charts on the EUR again
the natural fundamental trade is not EUR against USD or JPY, but to find a currency in a country will little or no debt.
despite their own real estate bubble, from what i read, CAD or much better AUD and NZD might be candidates.
CHF despite UBS and CSFB should be as well. notice how the Swiss
authorities have tightened the management of these 2 institutions,
pressing them to recapitalize as much as possible and targetting higher
capital ratios than Basel III.
im thinking also of SGD and of course XAU.
but given the run in XAU, despite the trend being absolutely intact,
from a fundamental point of view, i think there is more value in being
long SGD or CHF than being long gold against the EUR. Gold can still go
x2 from here, but then youre playing Gold, not shorting the Euro.
still for a trade, looking at EURUSD, you can see the mkt accelerated when we broke out the downtrend line
but dropped again the next month in a big reversal erasing and
engulfing the previous months move to retest the downtrend line, which
it held. surprisingly (to me) it was not followed by a total collapse of
the EUR, we are about to retest this line again. its not clear to me
what will happen from here;
on the weekly chart, it could
look ugly like a reversal as well boding bad for the Eur if we close the
week below 1.41 and the move continues next week. but i dont want to
bet either way. it looks pretty digital to me from here.
on a long term monthly chart, USDSGD is at its lowest ever, but EURSGD
is still a few % above its 2010 lows, and was trading much lower in
2000. There is no govt debt in Singapore and they have a big sov fund.
it should be trading as the CHF of Asia, if not the CHF of the world, or
the Gold of the World !!!
20110707_-_EURSGD_monthly
20110707_-_EURUSD_monthly
20110707_-_EURUSD_weekly
For those who have interests in things such as currency pairs, may I refer you to our proprietary currency model.
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perhaps Reggie should just buy gold... and thats all he has to do.. investing is easy
fysical gold that is .. not crappy papergold
to JW in Fl,
Poll just out has 83% of the population against the carbon tax. Might not fly.
and every time i try to sign up it says:
Session expired. Please try again later.
Reggie,
Can you please elaborate on how much the CAD is being held hostage by the US$ and your opinion of real estate in places like Vancouver considering the dynamics at play currently in geo-finance please (ie China, U.S., etc.)? Thank-you also for what you give to the world as part of the cutting edge of real news and analysis.
i dont think any paper currency is going to be allowed to move very far in any direction. the central bankers are all working together to maintain relative pegs. cb interventions make all currencies the same thing. this is the new sdr.
how do i sign up for your newsletter as a retail guy, reggie? website says "retail subscription 2009", i just want to try monthly but it seems like either that is a mistake or the subscription is for old content? i can't figure it out.
That is a topic that is probably not appropriate to discuss in the comment forums. Email me at Reggie at BoomBustBlog dot com.
cool actually tried several weeks ago never heard back, hence the post here. i made contact today though. thanks for ur hard work and also not blasting the subscription option in our face all day long
For the record, I believe the Aussie's exposure to China may prove to be a tad bit unpleasant.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbDeS_mXMnM
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2011/06/13/Fortescue-balks-at-Australias-mining-tax/UPI-12611307987943/
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43707672
Can the Carbon Tax Halt Australia's Mining Bull Run? Published: Monday, 11 Jul 2011 | 1:23 AM ET