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Is Commercial Real Estate Recovering?

Econophile's picture





 

From The Daily Capitalist

The recovery of the economy depends on several important factors, but the recovery of the real estate market is near the top of the list, especially commercial real estate (CRE) because most of America's banks are loaded down with CRE debt. As a result of a massive infusion of capital into the real estate market since 2002 resulting from the Fed's historic pumping of money into the economy from 2001 to 2006, CRE prices skyrocketed causing the boom-bust cycle from which we are now trying to recover.

As a result, cheap money poured into projects that, but for the  false prosperity of an inflated money supply, were unprofitable. All this malinvestment came to a head when the Fed turned off the money spigot starting in 2006 and led to an historic bust.

Q2 2010 MIT Transaction Based Index

As a result banks, especially regional and local banks that financed most of the CRE (we are not talking about trophy properties here) have been seriously jeopardized by their CRE loans.

A tally by SNL Financial LC found that 94% of bank failures since 2008 had either residential or commercial real-estate as their largest category of delinquent loans. KBW says their riskier construction loans were 23% of their total portfolio, compared with 7.2% for the industry as a whole. The delinquency rate of commercial real estate was 13.5%, far above the current national average of 1.7%, SNL said.

Until banks clear their balance sheets of this defaulted debt, they will remain reluctant to lend, worried as they are of further loan defaults and the need to protect their capital base. Banks are one-half of the "credit crunch" which the Fed has been trying to remedy. Yet government policies encourage lenders to delay the inevitable and necessary ("extend and pretend", "mark-to-make-believe", and "delay and pray").

With these thoughts in mind, a look at the commercial real estate markets should give us some idea of how this malinvested real estate is working its way through the system.

Based on a review of data for commercial real estate, the following is becoming apparent:

1. There are two real estate markets: trophy/investment grade and general CRE. According to the CoStar Commercial Repeat-Sale Indices (CCRSI):

For the past three months, all three indices (the composite, general and investment-grade) are negative: down 3.92% for the broad general index; down 3.24% for investment grade; and down 3.92% for the composite. For the past 12 months, all three indices are down approximately 10% to 11%.

 

For the past two years, the general real estate index is down 24%, investment grade is down 32% and the composite is down 26%. From the peak in February of 2008, the general real estate price index is down 27%, the investment grade down 34% and the composite index down 29%.

 

However, the repeat-sale values for investment grade commercial property reversed their negative trend from July and moved positive again with a 3.73% climb in August.

2. The CRE market is attracting huge pools of capital for investment.

According to the CCRSI September report

Companies and funds reported raising $6.88 billion in September for real estate-related investments and financing.

 

The amount raised brings the total inflow for the first nine months of the year to $69.69 billion raised from about 1,352 funds and firms. ... For September, 174 different funds and firms reported raising $2.5 billion earmarked for debt repayment and $700 million earmarked for debt, mortgage or securities purchases. That leaves approximately $3.68 billion of the money raised available for property investments.

 

At a conservative 65% loan-to-value ratio, the money raised in September could fund $27.6 billion in property purchases. That amount far outpaces the amount of deals getting done. Property sales of $1 million or more have totaled slightly more than $14 billion in both August and July, according to CoStar Group's COMPs database. (As of this writing CoStar has verified more than $11.5 billion in September property sales of $1 million or larger, and continues to tally the total transaction volume for the month.)

 

Of the total amount raised in September, $5.47 billion was raised from publicly offered shares in REITs and real estate operating companies with a little more than half of that money specifically to be used debt repayment or refinancing.  The other $1.42 billion came from private fund raising efforts and is all earmarked for new investment. Pooled investment funds including private equity and hedge funds raised $730 million of the total of private efforts - the lowest monthly amount for such funds this year.

 

The highest percentage of funds raised (approximately 23%) was earmarked primarily for office-related investments. Funds targeting multifamily investments raised 17% of the total; health care-related real estate 15%; and industrial-related 10%. Funds targeting investments related to hotels, retail and debt/mortgages each accounted for about 8% of the total.

3. The CRE market is still under considerable stress, but sales activity, distressed and otherwise, is rising because of perceived deals.

MIT reported:

Transaction prices of commercial properties sold by major institutional investors surged over 17 percent in the second quarter of 2010, according to an index developed and published by the MIT Center for Real Estate (MIT/CRE).  The 17.3 percent increase in the transactions-based index (TBI) for the second quarter is very near the all-time quarterly record for the 105 quarters in the index history (since 1984). The record is a 17.8 percent jump in the second quarter of 2005 in the midst of the property boom. However, transaction volume in the investment property population tracked by the index was down for the second quarter in a row and remains at a very low level by historical standards. "

 

Usually price and volume move together in the property market, so the overall result sends a mixed signal," said MIT Professor David Geltner, Director of Research at the Center for Real Estate. The latest pricing result puts the index at 159.6, still 31 percent below its mid-2007 peak of 230.3 (against an inception value of 100 in the first quarter of 1984).  According to Geltner, "the mixed signal likely reflects the split nature of the U.S. commercial property market these days, with high investor demand for safe investments pushing prices sharply up from the deep bottom for ?trophy buildings – prime properties fully leased out to solid tenants – while distress in the broader commercial property market and concerns about the economic future keep prices down in other segments of the market."

Moody's reported:

Since 2007, the ratio of distressed sales to overall sales has increased from approximately 1% to approximately 23% currently. Discounts on distressed property sales (REOs and short sales) compared to non-distressed sales are running an average of 40% for multifamily, 20% for office and industrial and 17% for retail property based on 2010 data to date.

 

Commercial real estate prices dropped another 3.1% in July, the second-straight month of declines and only 0.9% above the recession low in October 2009, according to the credit rating agency Moody's Investment Services.

 

Currently, prices are 43.2% below the peak in October 2007. Over the past year, commercial real estate prices have fallen 7.3%. According to Trepp, an analytics firm, commercial real estate problems are the culprit behind the most recent bank failures.

Marcus & Millichap reports:

Distressed sales activity during the first half of 2010 nearly tripled the activity levels recorded in the same period in 2009, with assets under $5 million comprising over 80 percent of the transactions. This controlled liquidation will continue over the next year as lenders clear their balance sheets of bad commercial real estate debt, whether through note sales, short sales or REO dispositions.

 

The average recovery rate increased from 63 percent in 2009 to 67 percent in 2010, with approximately 15 percent of all resolutions resulting in full first-mortgage recoveries, bolstering lenders’ confidence in the market and generating a rise in REO sales activity. By delaying their liquidation of distressed assets until after the worst of the downturn, lenders have been able to avoid the fire sale many investors and opportunity funds anticipated. Lender recovery rates will continue to edge up through the remainder of 2010 and early 2011 as vacancy rates stabilize and transaction velocity accelerates, allowing lenders to bring additional properties to market.

Trepp Data, which reports very reliable data for CMBS, for August, 2010 says:

The delinquency rate for commercial real estate loans in CMBS accelerated in August. This comes after two successive months in which the increases in the delinquency rate had moderated. The August numbers may give ammunition to those who argue that the commercial real estate crisis is far from over. The rate in August was up 21 basis points after an increase of only 12 basis points in July; the overall delinquency rate [is] 8.92%. ...

 

The increase for seriously impaired loans saw a similar jump. The percentage of loans seriously delinquent (60 days + in foreclosure, REO, or non-performing balloons) was up 20 basis points.The number of loan modifications remains elevated. This will continue to put some downward pressure on the delinquency number as troubled loans get resolved and move from the delinquency category. REO loans that are liquidated will have a similar impact. Separately, the average loss severity in 2010 for liquidated loans has been 45%. However, if the losses are backed out for loans where shortfalls have been 2% or less, that percentage jumps to 60%.


Spreads on CMBS super seniors fell again in August but the real action was in mezzanine AAA bonds (AMs). Overall, spreads tightened 15 to 30 basis points for the month of August for recent vintage super senior bonds. With Treasury yields continuing to drop, some AAA bonds are approaching prices of $110. AM bond prices jumped by $5 to $10 in some cases. The dollar prices on some AM bonds now exceed par for higher quality names from 2005 and 2006. Many 2007 AM bonds are now trading above $90. At various points in late 2008 and early 2009, these bonds were quoted at 30 cents on the dollar or less. The strength in AM bonds began to lift the prices for junior AAA bonds (AJs) late in the month. Credit bonds ( those rated single-A or lower ) from vintages 2005 and earlier continued to attract strong bids.

But rising default rates can also be seen as a positive as banks have less patience with their borrowers and they are pushing them toward foreclosure.

What these data say is that investors are snapping up prime real estate, and even paying premiums for top properties. Which bears out the old saying that [piles of] idle money chases prices. This has been borne out by some really big deals for trophy properties that are just hitting the market.

BXP is on a buying binge:

Boston Properties Inc. (NYSE: BXP) agreed to buy Boston’s 62-story John Hancock Tower, New England’s tallest building, from a joint venture between affiliates of Normandy Real Estate Partners and Five Mile Capital Partners for $930 million, or about $550 per square foot.

 

The deal would be the largest sale of a commercial building of any type in the U.S. for at least the past two years. More than a dozen potential buyers, including Vornado Realty Trust (NYSE: VNO) and Beacon Capital Partners of Boston participated in ferocious bidding for the iconic tower.

 

On Sept. 24, Boston Properties closed the $275 million acquisition of the 350,000-square-foot 510 Madison Ave. office tower in the Plaza District of Midtown Manhattan. BXP bought the newly built tower from an affiliate of developer Harry Macklowe, who was forced to sell properties after taking on too much debt. ...

 

Boston Properties has joined many other REITs that have become net buyers of property this year. BXP's acquisition spree is driven at least in part by the more that $1 billion in cash sitting on the company's balance sheet earning next to nothing due to the current ultra-low interest rate environment, said Alexander Goldfarb, REIT analyst for Sandler O'Neill + Partners, LP. But it also shows a growing appetite for the best assets in the best markets.

 

REIT acquisition activity significantly accelerated in the third quarter, with over $14 billion in transaction volume, according to Citigroup. REITs also raised almost $4 billion in common equity in the third quarter for a total of $17 billion year to date.

High-quality CBD properties continue to be in demand by investors who believe they will better retain their value over the long run than suburban properties in lesser locations, which can become obsolete more quickly.

With the huge pools of capital raised for investment, with banks being enticed back into the market and disposing of REO properties, it appears that the CRE market is getting healthier, yet far from being resolved. While the  John Hancock Tower makes headlines, it is the "general CRE" properties, the B and C properties, that are clogging up the regional and local banks. The ongoing problems of high delinquency rates and still declining prices will continue to plague banks. But from the sales data presented here and from anecdotal evidence I am seeing, more properties are now being offered by banks which is a good sign. In addition sales are increasing in most key markets.

If I were to guess, all things being equal, we still have another two years or so for the CRE market to tighten up. On top of all of the above is the $1,5 trillion of CRE debt that still needs to be refinanced over the next five years. If prices firm, if banks clean up their REO departments, and if interest rates stay low, then that will help the refi problem. But it's not over yet. There are positive things happening, a loosening up of the REO market that we haven't seen for the past two years, plus growing sales, which are good signs.

 


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Fri, 10/08/2010 - 22:08 | Link to Comment Edward King
Edward King's picture

CRE ticked up in Q2 but activity is again just about dead outside of REITs doing hairy/horrendous deals.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 17:43 | Link to Comment Magua
Magua's picture

There actually two parts to commercial real estate:

Public Reits have issued equity and gotten their balance sheets into pretty good shape, albeit with the dilution of their long term holders, including the founders. They are beginning to nibble at properties, like the Boston Property example above when they can find properties. Boston is perhaps the most conservative Reit in the office space, so they don't commit a billion lightly, but obviously the property is an irreplaceable asset in Boston. I actually like Reits in a dollar printing go wild world, as the rents will move up and cause a improving cash flow trend. Hopefully dividends will soon follow, so buying a high quality Reit with a 3% to 6% yield growing 2%-3% a year will give a nice return compared to Treasuries.

Private real estate is another matter. Most of the properties were bought with at least 75% leverage, and are underwater with no equity. Some sit on the balance sheets of banks. Vintage private real estate done from 2005 to 2008 is going to be a black hole for pensions, endowments and insurance companies. Also unlike Reits, they bought for price appreciation, not cash flow, and do not have the professional management/leasing staff to manage the properties, and like the homes sitting fallow in Florida, money must be put into the properties every year to keep them marketable.

What I am not sure of, is whether the eventual sale of them will drive cap rates up a lot or at all. If interest rates stay low, then my guess is not much, but if interest rates surge, there will be blood in the streets.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 16:54 | Link to Comment tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

interest rates will be the party pooper....the fed can keep rates artificially low so long as irs don't explode...unfortunately the day of reckoning is coming for those too....cre is dead - but cleaning the books is a sign of potential life.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 16:50 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Not recovering and won't ever.  The classic example is Amazon.  They've never made any money selling books (other stuff, maybe), but they were hugely successful at destroying margins for all the mom and pop book stores.  Same thing applies throughout retailing, except for food, furniture, really bulky stuff.

As for office space, why not use Starbucks? 

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 16:40 | Link to Comment I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

As a CRE appraiser I can say that the CRE market is not recovering.  This is REITards chasing yield.  This will wip-saw as things fall apart and interest rates invert.  Expectations and reality rarely meet but when they do it is usually painful. 

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 16:50 | Link to Comment greyghost
greyghost's picture

do you know if the bad boys have done the same thing to the cre market that they have to the housing market...ie bad loans, faulty paper work, slicing and dicing mortgages...etc...etc

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 16:35 | Link to Comment Chartist
Chartist's picture

Forget real estate.....Here's the fucking problem:  I just received my contract renewal from my HMO.  My contract just went up 25% over last year!  There will be no expansion and no hiring among small business owners when this shit keeps hitting us where it hurts.

And, I now have much less money to spend in other sectors of the economy.  Does this fucking government want to support only the HMO industry?

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 16:55 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Amen.  Thanks to ObummerCare everyone will need another HR flack, another compliance officer and two or three accountants just to stay out of jail.  WTF

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 16:26 | Link to Comment taraxias
taraxias's picture

"Is CRE recovering?"

 

One word: "NO"

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 16:24 | Link to Comment mynhair
mynhair's picture

'Is CRE recovering?'

Not based on my monthly check.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 16:21 | Link to Comment Chartist
Chartist's picture

I love ZH, it's the only source of business info I read....But, you cannot trade stocks using this information....

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 16:33 | Link to Comment Dark Space
Dark Space's picture

You're problem is that you're trading stocks...

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 18:59 | Link to Comment NoVolumeMeltup
NoVolumeMeltup's picture

+100

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 16:25 | Link to Comment mynhair
mynhair's picture

Yes you can, just get yer nose outta those worthless charts.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!