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Commitment Of Traders Report: Record Euro Shorts

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The CFTC's Commitment Of Traders report indicated that a record number of short positions were established in the EUR, confirming the decidedly dour investor mood for Europe. At -57,152 net EUR short positions hit a record, after "increasing" by -13,411 and it appears that the GBP will soon follow in the record negative sentiment category. The cable saw 19,314 net new short positions added, bringing the total to -57,549. The GDP record is at -65,346 reached last October. Furthermore, all other pairs saw a net contract decline, including the AUD, CAD, CHF, MXN and NZD. In the "preferred" camp, only the JPY saw net positive contracts of 22,396, an increase of over 15k from the prior week. As a result aggregate USD positioning in nominal terms increased by $4.14 billion to $8.37 billion. The EUR-hate regime is now decidedly here. On the other hand, the EUR is substantially oversold and a technical bounce is to be expected, absent some horrendous news out of the EMU in the next 24 hours.

 

 

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Sun, 02/14/2010 - 18:51 | 230927 Bill DeBurgh
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Hmm... I googled these "euro shorts" and what I found was very disturbing. Very disturbing, indeed.

http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/a2R0Wi8jOCdR_2KTGj9KKQ

Sun, 02/14/2010 - 20:46 | 231011 Argos
Argos's picture

You're a bad boy and must be punished.

Sun, 02/14/2010 - 21:18 | 231041 BlackBeard
BlackBeard's picture

LOL

Mon, 02/15/2010 - 11:06 | 231347 Simple
Simple's picture

hahahaha ++++

Tue, 02/16/2010 - 15:50 | 232862 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

you got me!  you got me......

Sun, 02/14/2010 - 18:52 | 230930 jdrose1985
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Move along, nothing to see here.

Sun, 02/14/2010 - 19:38 | 230954 ratava
ratava's picture

im euro and i dont mind getting more euros for my dollars back here, cause i speculate in dollars. hey i can short my own government and its a win-win for me.

Sun, 02/14/2010 - 20:34 | 231005 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Usually means big hands will run the stops -- when too many barnacles are on the tail of the Whale, she shakes them off with avarice.

Sun, 02/14/2010 - 20:48 | 231012 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Japan's GDP: more bullshit from Bloomber:

 

"Gross domestic product rose at an annual 4.6 percent pace in the three months ended Dec. 31, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today. The median estimate of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for growth to accelerate to 3.5 percent. Third quarter GDP was revised to zero from 1.3 percent growth."

“There’s little chance that Japan will fall back into a recession because exports are likely to keep growing on the back of recoveries in China and the U.S.,” Norio Miyagawa, a senior economist at Shinko Research Institute in Tokyo, said before the report. “Yet households may face difficulties as wages aren’t increasing and deflation is entrenched.”

 

Yes, the US recovery in full-swing. Jobs still being lost, credit contracting, wages falling, rates soon to be rising......I can feel it!!

Sun, 02/14/2010 - 21:14 | 231036 deadhead
deadhead's picture

I just finished reading that same article and I chuckled at the exports growing on the back of......the U.S.  (i'll leave china out for the purposes of this note).  Someone needs to let Norio know that the US consumer is still not the big spender he used to be.......

I see the japanese pulled out the old US Commerce dept trick with that downward revision to zero from 1.3%......the US Commerce dept would have found a way to make it at least a .1% vs a goose egg.

Ah, what the hell....as to China, maybe they will buy lots of televisions for all those empty apartments in the empty cities......

Mon, 02/15/2010 - 11:33 | 231378 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I would of never guessed US Consumer still on a spending binge, considering the masses on Valentine's day,spending away, could be also the annual ATT golf tournament.

Mon, 02/15/2010 - 11:45 | 231394 JacksWastedLife
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It is not so obvious. I see here, in Kathmandu, a lot of middle-class Chinese tourists. They already got televisions, expensive digital cameras and it is not so easy as before to distinguish which is a Japanese tourist and which is Chinese. (In case you couldn't read and understand faces, of course.) 

Sun, 02/14/2010 - 23:20 | 231127 chindit13
chindit13's picture

I believe Japanese exports benefitted greatly from those 400,000 Toyota gas pedals sent to the US.  There certainly wasn't any other growth that any Japanese citizen noticed, kind of like the revised 3qtr from +1.3 to zero (always a big revision, always down).

Mon, 02/15/2010 - 06:48 | 231250 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

If you saw the Daytona 500 last night you would know the US consumer is back!

Sun, 02/14/2010 - 21:37 | 231065 Instant Karma
Instant Karma's picture

Euro due for a violent bounce. Charts suggest 1.25 a target in a few months.

Sun, 02/14/2010 - 21:55 | 231076 waterdog
waterdog's picture

It is like standing on 10k pounds of C4 while holding a 200 yard fuse in your hand, in the middle of a lightning storm, bitching because your Bic lighter will not light.

 

 

 

 

Sun, 02/14/2010 - 22:07 | 231088 jedwards
jedwards's picture

If the euro is getting hammered, why is gold going up?  Will this be opposite to Oct 2008 where the flight to quality ie USD hammered gold, and instead both the USD and gold will rise together?

Sun, 02/14/2010 - 23:37 | 231139 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

When you have a crash gold only crashes once. It rises on every crash after that.

Sun, 02/14/2010 - 22:27 | 231104 Invisible Hand
Invisible Hand's picture

Would kicking Greece out of the EMU be Euro-bullish?  Just kiddin...

However, I am seeing much more discussion about the impossibility of economic without political union.  Makes sense to me that you can't have a single currency for a group of nations with (extremely) different fiscal policies.

Question is: Does Greece become more like Germany, or Germany more like Greece?

Sun, 02/14/2010 - 23:00 | 231122 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

have you seen the list of new rules for Greece to start next year??  everyone rich will leave but where to go??

 

and that part of all transactions with cash over $1,500 are outlawed is pretty scary stuff...   forcing everyone to use credit/debit cards

 

I bet there will be a huge spike in auto and boat sales this year before the laws go into place

Mon, 02/15/2010 - 00:29 | 231162 dnarby
dnarby's picture

HAH...

I predict afterwards a lot of big ticket items in Greece are going to be 'dismantled' and there will be a huge aftermarket for these parts @ E1500.00 each.

Also that Greek tax enforcement officers will be the principle initiators of the majority of foreign bank accounts.

Mon, 02/15/2010 - 03:47 | 231221 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

That or they will just start trading PM's so that it won't matter.

Mon, 02/15/2010 - 01:38 | 231188 jedwards
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Milton Friedman predicted that the Euro wouldn't last 10 years.  He might be close to being right.

Mon, 02/15/2010 - 02:10 | 231193 Dirtt
Dirtt's picture

That's kinda like asking will Pelosi become more like Cheney or Cheney more like Pelosi.

 

Neither.  They both would rather jump off a cliff first.  Gloom and doom is in the cards.  Permabears have it right this time.  So does Farber.  But that is okay.  After Gloom and Doom comes boom.  Just as soon as they all jump off a cliff we can get back to going forward.

 

Maybe the Mayans were right.  Maybe the world as we know it is coming to an end in 2012.  THANK GOD!

Sun, 02/14/2010 - 23:00 | 231120 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

It's getting out there. More PR for the squid:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5MJFT2dMyIU&pos=5

Sun, 02/14/2010 - 23:30 | 231131 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don't know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.

Lucy

http://forextradin-g.net

Mon, 02/15/2010 - 02:42 | 231201 Comrade de Chaos
Comrade de Chaos's picture

and the man who brought down the euro will be .... BERNY ! (the brd, brd brd brd, brd is a word. ~ )

Mon, 02/15/2010 - 06:10 | 231241 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Interesting choice for the name of the directory where those files are stored:

//www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/madoff/...

Madoff ??

Mon, 02/15/2010 - 06:13 | 231242 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Interesting name for the directory where those graphs are stored:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/madoff/....

Does this reflect a sentiment on markets in general?

Mon, 02/15/2010 - 07:20 | 231253 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

 

Intra day EURO chart still giving bullish warnings.

Daily trend remains down.

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0

Mon, 02/15/2010 - 08:39 | 231271 dan22
dan22's picture

The Euro Crisis and The Euro Collapse- Germany is pushing Greece into debt deflation

There is a big difference between a liquidity problem and a solvency problem. When a company or a country has enough assets to cover its liabilities but they have a problem raising the money they need to pay off the loan they have a liquidity problem. But when an entity has more debt than it can serve than it has a solvency problem and in that case more debt and loans will only dig it into a bigger hole. Greece has a liquidity problem since it has much more debt than the economy can serve. Germany and the Euro are perhaps will to give them loan in attractive interest rates but unless they are willing to consistently transfer money from the core of Europe to the weak countries those countries are doomed. If German politicians think they can convince there citizens to fund Greece's recklessness throw transfer payments all I have to say to them is GOOD LUCK!
Mon, 02/15/2010 - 10:55 | 231328 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Umm this is just futures, the spot and forward OTC markets are muuuuuuch larger than this. Most of these shorts may just be offsetting longs in these markets. I agree with the premise, I just don't think the COT numbers are very useful when that is only like 20% of the market positions.

Mon, 02/15/2010 - 11:53 | 231402 Bylinka (not verified)
Bylinka's picture

Dear Tyler, would you be so kind to update the public on the DXY short position (taken by commercials). I heard rumors that it is not small at all. Thank you.

Mon, 02/15/2010 - 14:17 | 231612 omi
omi's picture

Get ready to buy EUR/CAD.

Mon, 02/15/2010 - 17:34 | 231840 estrader
estrader's picture

What happens if the EU breaks up?  Does the Euro currency go to 0 vs all other currencies??  Would it be worth buying 1 tick put options on the currency every month? Obviously the currency will drop vs everything else but does it go to 0?

Fri, 02/19/2010 - 23:22 | 238394 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don't know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.

Lucy

http://forextradin-g.net

Mon, 04/19/2010 - 09:13 | 307681 Tom123456
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