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Commitment Of Traders: The Speculative Treasury Bubble Pops As Dollar Longs Continue Rising

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Today's CFTC Commitment of Trader data confirms that the dollar strengthening trend from last week continues: net spec commercial positions in the USD are now well off their lows from three weeks ago and are up to 5,850, after hitting a 2010 low of -1,580. At the same time, both JPY and EUR spec positions declined (by -2,727 and -6,243 positions, respectively) as the rotation into the dollar, as brief as it may end up being, accelerated. Whether this was merely momentum chasing or an expectation of a less efficient QE2 can be answered by looking at select commodity positions. A quick glance at wheat, soybeans, coffee, corn and oats shows that pretty much all 5 representative commodities saw their net long spec positions increase again. So QE2 is definitely going to manifest itself in more inflation, or so at least claim the speculators. Yet not is as it seems: a look at Treasury specs shows a combined drop across the 2, 5 and 10Y space of 123,835 contracts to 186,892, only the second largest drop in 2010, which occurred after the cumulative total hit a 2010 record of 310,727 the week prior! In other words, even as specs were discounting an increase in inflation and a potential increase in the value of the dollar, the bond bubble officially popped.

Treasury Net Specs:

Commodity Net Specs:

FX Net Specs:

And, as usual, a full CFTC COT report, courtesy of Libanman Futures - link

 

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Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:09 | 686947 SMG
SMG's picture

This goes against all common sense right now,  but I think we are going to see, for at least a short time, a dollar rally and a stock market/ precious metals nose dive.

Of course I'm a stinky investor so don't listen to me.

Really..

 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:13 | 686959 Cdad
Cdad's picture

That is exactly what is about to happen.  The largest profitable trade on the street now is short dollar.   It is way over done.  Gold has huge profits to be booked. 

It is a no brainer.  The only question is...how did it NOT start today?

Hat tip to Tyler...for this week's sweat equity.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 20:21 | 687224 flacon
flacon's picture

Good question: How did it NOT start today? Perhaps TERRORISM or perhaps enough people are going to HOLD THEIR GOLD/SILVER and NOT SELL into Nov 3rd? My miner stocks have not done as well as the metals themselves. I really want another 500oz of the WOLF series maple leaf silver coins. Should I hold on to stocks and trade out later, or should I cash out now into USD and buy up on "perhaps" drop? Dunno...

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:20 | 687430 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

These are the kinds of questions/comments that rarely occurred a year ago here at ZH without tons of what if's, ridicule, and good jokes.

So here's the answer: get out your fucking Ouigi board or flip a coin. We don't have the answers, my friend.

Dammit, what the fuck is wrong with you? Get some gumption and stop with the stupid questions. Make a decision and live with it and don't expect a fucking decision bailout here. Riddle me this, riddle me that--

Hey, I got one--Why did Bernanke cross the road?

Answer: Who fucking cares unless he was hit by a car and killed.

Talk to a financial therapist or suck it up. 13 weeks here and you think you are going to get advice or an answer to your problems? 

ZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 23:33 | 687572 chopper read
chopper read's picture

i would classify this response to his question as 'the death penalty for jay-walking'.

i reckon gold (and other commodities) and the USD can go up on some days together as stocks and bonds are liquidated and foreign fiat is printed alongside the USD (specifically Japanese Yen and perhaps Euros).  

just my two cents. 

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:03 | 687602 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

I got 3 cents that say you could be right and could be wrong.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 23:56 | 687597 waterdog
waterdog's picture

Whoever flagged this as junk can suck my chicken as soon as your mommy and daddy finish paying for your braces. Please remove your retainer.

Thanks Howard, I was beginning to think I was not able to laugh anymore.

 

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:26 | 687598 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

You are very welcome dog. It's time for the one year club to beat some sense into these late to the partiers and take the blog back to some sense of reason. We got Banzai finally to contrib status and I highly recommend Money McBags contributions. He is a riot.

It's time for revolt. Right here at ZH. Enough newbie porchies yakking up their problems. Time to get back to the best laughs around right here. It used to be a great laugh everyday and now it is a junkfest of clusterfucked horseshit with racist survivalist nonsense. Fuck this bullshit and fuck everyone that is offended by the word fuck. Bunch of phucknuts...we could have Cheeky here with brilliant insights and hysterical rants but he left, we could have Deadhead creating brilliant conversations that left you on the floor, we could have all kinds of fun. But the newbies and trolls became the junker assbites and the blog has been captured.

Time to take it back. Get obscene. Get silly. Get real. Nuff said. And fuck any lameass that junks me because you are morons to begin with and it means squat to me and those with a brain here. Phucknut junkers--eat me.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:46 | 687636 waterdog
waterdog's picture

I remember the girls and crazy writing boys. Too many of us took the responses personally. I for one was probably the biggist idiot that ever posted here. Junk was my middle name. I miss the girls, also Robo, Cheeky, and all the other lovable idiots. Not so much Junkyard Dog-he was clever though. I am not sure what to do. I cannot get into it. Things are so bad. I need some therapy to write. A hard kick in the ass, or something.

 

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 04:32 | 687728 PeterB
PeterB's picture

There were some wonderful writers who I still believe moonlight these parts under different guises.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 13:56 | 688043 bookwurm
bookwurm's picture

If you cant shut down their servers, dumb down the comment content to the point of imbilicity

heres my .50 cents on whats going on here at ZH...

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/JH14Ad01.html

 

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 12:13 | 687972 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

"I got one--Why did Bernanke cross the road?"

Because everyone gets their marching orders from those that own them...

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 17:47 | 688269 honestann
honestann's picture

I own me... lock, stock and barrel.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:22 | 687435 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

imo (!), hold gold, silver, long tsy, equity puts; in three months sell last two, buy first two. reverse in five years.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:27 | 687452 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

And I'll take that to the bank of HB.

Actually, I agree with you on PM's after a good sell-off but I am in a nasty mood. I would not take off the equity puts, I would take my profits and wait for a bounce and buy more. But what the fuck do I know? None of us knows. We just hope we know that we all won't go down in flames.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:35 | 687469 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

the thing that worries me is if they finally do get inflation won't (nominal) puts be defeated on a nominal (but not real) basis? 

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:01 | 687600 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

There's an Ap for that. Stop worrying and start living. I don't follow my own advice but I am great at giving it out.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 07:09 | 687786 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

...but I am in a nasty mood

ya think?

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:30 | 687462 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

no more edit?  do i overedit? change "equity puts" to "sell equities" (for parallelism with the last sentence).

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:31 | 687439 lawrence1
lawrence1's picture

¨Gold has huge profits to be booked.¨

Makes me think of an Oscar Wilde quote about someone who knew the price of everything and the value of nothing.

As the Titanic was sïnking, I´ll bet there was a businessman entering one of the first lifeboats who sold his seat and booked a huge profit, thinking he was going to get on one of the next lifeboats... and, perhaps he did.

And with what certainity these predictions!  I like Yogi Berra´s quip, something to the effect that ¨Predicting is hard.... especially the future.

So ¨Book the profits¨! Collect the paper!  And sell me your gold, please, Ill pay full price plus premium.

 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 23:35 | 687575 chopper read
chopper read's picture

+1

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 08:41 | 687836 Arius
Arius's picture

 

+1

i suppose some people just dont know when to quit dancing...thats the stuff losers are made of...

loved the titanic lifeboat gamble - good one!

but i suppose thats the way he got to be rich in the first place....just at some point the music stop and you dont want to follow Chuck Prince but Soros...

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 10:19 | 687896 macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.
Yogi Berra

A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore.
Yogi Berra

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:54 | 687505 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 The only question next week will be; "how did it not start this week".

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:54 | 687506 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 The only question next week will be; "how did it not start this week".

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:17 | 686964 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

I don't care what you smell like. I mean, you could wreak of a catbox, rank cheese, and a port-a-potty combined. My problem is with the word investor. Gotta get that word out of your vocab asap. 

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 05:14 | 687759 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

But, I see lots of people playing them on CNBS (WTF?)

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:21 | 686975 Kali
Kali's picture

My best indicator of how the dollar is doing is by my travels.  In the last few weeks, main tourist areas in other countries that used to freely take dollars in lieu of local currency are now refusing to accept US dollars and want local currency.  That tells me more than anything.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 19:58 | 687177 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

where?

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:24 | 687448 -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

WTF....

 

i take ur dollars  right now.

 

 

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 13:34 | 688023 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

I'll trade you mine for your gold, if you have any. And seeing as you appear to be so confident in FRN's coming strength you will gladly exchange your gold well below spot for my fiat, right?

Sun, 10/31/2010 - 20:58 | 689651 chopper read
chopper read's picture

+1

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:30 | 687459 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

Yeah...exactly where were you?

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 23:37 | 687577 chopper read
chopper read's picture

...he was in Zimbabwe.  

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:29 | 687621 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

Nice road trip. LOL...I think he was in magic mushroom land.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 13:39 | 688031 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

@Kali:

"Don't tell him anything!"

Shtoomp!

Regards

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:22 | 686978 Juggernaut Nihilism
Juggernaut Nihilism's picture

Agreed.  I hold plenty of physical, but am short in my trading account.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:30 | 687000 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Tyler,

Check the AH flash crash on GLD.  Nice...more than a 70% markdown. 

I'm sure Shapiro is on the case....

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 20:24 | 687227 flacon
flacon's picture

Provide a link please. What is "AH"?

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:23 | 687617 lo574
lo574's picture

AH = after hours.  BMO = before market open.  AMC = after market close.  Much to learn, you have, young padawan

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:34 | 687625 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

Thank you for asking. AH is short for asshole. In the financial markets it is an acronym for after hours. What you do with your asshole after hours is no concern of mine. And yes, we old timers have gotten sick of questions that could easily be answered with the evil GOOG.

Type in AH trading and bingo you get this! You see, this is how you can be a Zh'er and fake it.

http://www.google.com/search?q=AH+trading&sourceid=ie7&rls=com.microsoft:en-us:IE-SearchBox&ie=&oe=

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 02:11 | 687683 dkny
dkny's picture

Internet Explorer 7 can be bad for your health.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 07:58 | 687810 Samsonov
Samsonov's picture

Hey HB, who appointed you comments-fuhrer?  From your rants I can deduce: 1) you are angry, 2) you like to rant, and 3) you don't know anything and assume no one else does either.  One comment should be enough to cover it for you.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 13:37 | 688028 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

 Oh Snap!

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 18:43 | 688317 AUD
AUD's picture

Bam!!

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:21 | 687615 lo574
lo574's picture

Uh, Cdad you might want to Google intermarket sweeps and learn more about the market b4 you trade it.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 12:47 | 687989 Lux Fiat
Lux Fiat's picture

Always learn, or hear, about something new.  In looking up info on ISOs, ran across this lovely bit:  Reg NMS "...represents one of the most significant changes in the structure of equity markets in recent memory."  Also interesting was that final implementation of Reg NMS was on Oct. 8, 2007, one day before the highest nominal closing value on the SP-500 since its inception.  Hmmm...may be nothing, but it does make me wonder.

http://69.175.2.130/~finman/Reno/Papers/InterMktSwpOrder.pdf, page 3.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:33 | 687011 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I'd take a nice dip in gold to bulk up my positions.  I'm looking to buy some more in November.  I was afraid that QE2 was going to put it out of reach, but maybe not.  We'll see.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 20:28 | 687237 flacon
flacon's picture

Jack be Nimble, Jack be QUICK! 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:53 | 687051 wake the roach
wake the roach's picture

So QE2 is definitely going to manifest itself in more inflation, or so at least claim the speculators.

 

We have no MONETARY inflation through the real economy, only the inflationary ghosts of the great credit boom. The PRICE inflation we are witnessing in commodities (and thus manufactured goods) is completely speculative/momentum driven owing to the expectation of future monetary inflation (within the real economy) which will not happen. It is a self fulfilling positive feedback. Unless worker/consumer incomes are rising (is not and will not happen), speculative commodity bubbles are ultimately deflationary as the cost of non-discretionary spending lead to increased debt defaults, slowed discretionary product manufacture, higher unemployment, yada yada yada. 

We are living in the final days of the biggest CREDIT driven bubble that the world has ever seen (and ever will see). Yet somehow intelligent people continue to believe that uncle Ben is going to airdrop cash to the masses to begin the bidding wars. The TBTF are hoarding cash thats purchasing power is going to increase, just like it did after the last great depression. Problem is that when the nominal prices of just about everything do fall, no one will have the cash to buy anything, the bankers checkmate. Anyone holding cash will buy up assets for cents on the dollar. 

Again, unless worker/consumer incomes rise, commodity price inflation is ultimately deflationary. Until that happens, we will continue on our merry journey to the dark abyss of the greatest credit driven deflationary collapse the world will ever know and no one is going to trade you a moldy loaf of bread for an ounce of gold. There is simply not enough in existence/circulation to ever become a valued monetary medium. On the short to mid term of collapse, cash will still be king.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:57 | 687072 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Well said...all of it.  And those hoards of cash are not going to flood the market buying common shares.  That is so fucking stupid...and is repeated over and over in the MSM.

No, they are hoarding to buy up the real assets after this bubble finally blows.  Once Uncle Ben has gone all in, Katy bar the fucking door.  And the ghosto of JP Morgan shall once again be upon us.

We are officially...an nation of morons.  And as such, we deserve what is about to happen to us.

Cdad was here....

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 20:04 | 687167 wake the roach
wake the roach's picture

No, they are hoarding to buy up the real assets after this bubble finally blows.

 

Yep, the oldest trick in the banksters handbook. They do not want generalised monetary inflation, that would allow debt to be serviced. Deflationary cycles are how banks have always stolen real wealth and is why they love, and will never voluntarily give up the right to create fiat. Of course, gold currency offers no safety from this either, it just limits the size of the bubble. As long as banks can produce credit units (fantasy money) that are a as real a claim on value as the base money supply is, this circus could roll on indefinately. Luckily for us, declining rates of net energy production mean that soon the entire profit model of value exchange/allocation that we have known for thousands of years will become history and allow mankind to free ourselves once and for all of the parasite. Unfortunately, they know this fact too and is why they wish to place a market price on carbon.

By placing a price on carbon, a monetary profit will be made by becoming more carbon (energy) efficient in the production of goods and services than your competitor which sounds good for everyone but is just another way to continue the banking game. This is completely opposite to the profit system we have always known which creates a monetary profit by gaining access and consuming more energy than your competitor (a monetary profit today is an energy claim profit, tomorrow its a carbon efficiency profit). The floating market price for carbon thus becomes the interest rate, constantly adjusting itself for an economys energy (carbon) efficiency. As money today is only a physical representation of a claim on the energy an economy consumes at any point in time, there is no need for new national currencies with a carbon system. The dollar is here to stay although it will  eventually have to be devalued (after the pigs feed at the trough). The bankers game will only end once energy non GHG emitting energy production and efficiency becomes so great that money (as representing a claim on scarce energy) becomes obsolete. Unfortunatelty, this new monetary profit era will destroy whats left of our biosphere long before sustainability is reached. The profit system must end now. We will all become truly wealthy in its passing or suffer a miserable existence fighting to defend it. We have the capital technology and information/computing technology to provide for the needs of every person alive today without the need for a profit system and with incredible natural resource/energy efficiency by ending product duplication and planned obsolescence. But yeah, I always was a dreamer ;-)

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 20:48 | 687263 flacon
flacon's picture

You paint a bleak picture. And perhaps it's the way it will happen. However I still believe there is hope:

 

Even Mussolini couldn't escape with this pockets full of fascism: 

 

http://home.comcast.net/~lowe9101/mussolini/images/muss3.jp

 

http://www.historylink101.com/ww2_color/WorldWarIIConcentrationCamp/imag...

 

 

 

"In 1989, Romanian leader Nickolai Chauchescu was taken out into the courtyard along with his wife, Alaina, and shot. Alaina’s last words were, “Nickolai, I think that they are going to shoot us!” Executed by the court of public opinion, a verdict swift and sure. A verdict that every future leader of Italy or Romania is well aware of and not because of case law. It is the unspoken line, the line that dare not be crossed because civilization is a voluntary organization. If we feel that the laws and covenants cease to work for the common good then we have every right to withdraw our participation."

 

Trust me, THE ELITE are much more afraid of US than we are of THEM. Afterall.... we PRODUCE, they do not. 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 21:11 | 687344 wake the roach
wake the roach's picture

If we feel that the laws and covenants cease to work for the common good then we have every right to withdraw our participation.

 

Amen.

Yes true. But it is the fear the elites hold from such lessons of history that makes them so dangerous but yeah, I still hold onto hope that the people will prevail in the end. Hopefully, enough of those who wear a uniform will see through the lies and be wise enough to stand on the side of "the common good" ;-) 

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:36 | 687624 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

who are you masked man?

You sound like a death defying mixture of Karl Denninger and John Lennon...

I like what you wrote

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 02:23 | 687691 bonin006
bonin006's picture

One would hope, but remember that some 80% of soldiers in Iraq under Bush though Saddam Hussein was responsible for 9/11.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 05:21 | 687760 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

How many do you think will pull the trigger if ordered to do so, when it's THEIR granny out there in the crosshairs?

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 17:45 | 688267 honestann
honestann's picture

That is the wrong question.  The appropriate question is:

How many will pull the trigger when it's other random human in their crosshairs.

As everyone can see, they almost always pull the trigger.

Yes, I suspect a higher percentage will refuse to pull the trigger on other americans who are just "hanging around" doing nothing in particular.  So what?  The predators-that-be know the game very well.  They simply abuse the population sufficiently to create protests and incidents... then send their hired thugs to "protect the people" or "protect civilized behavior" or some such claptrap.  In these cases, 99% of hired thug cops/military pull the trigger, even "at home" (just not in their own individual home).

Sun, 10/31/2010 - 21:57 | 689770 dkny
dkny's picture

I hate to break it to you, but a deeper analysis should prove that the execution in Romania was only due to convenience for the rest of the power players.

I wouldn't be surprised if it applies to ex-soviet blocks countries that those in the "security services" still hold all the cards.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:58 | 687518 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 Very interesting, because it's totally and completely false; and obviously so.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 07:16 | 687788 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

I couldn't agree more.  The kicker was this piece of claptrap: "Unless worker/consumer incomes are rising (is not and will not happen), speculative commodity bubbles are ultimately deflationary as the cost of non-discretionary spending lead to increased debt defaults, slowed discretionary product manufacture, higher unemployment, yada yada yada."

Wage/price spiral?  Spare me; we're not talking about inflation, we're talking about a currency collapse, and they're completely different things.  What he describes might be what the banksters are shooting for, but I disagree that that's what they're going to get.  The banks and fed dot gov will not survive a self-reinforcing deflation.  Bernanke hopes to print just enough to keep the banks alive.  He will fail.

 

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 13:18 | 687997 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Whew, for a second there I thought that was going to stand unchallenged. Thanks for stepping in SWR.

Regards

 

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 11:46 | 687949 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Nice thesis, if this were 1931. Back then currency retained value Precisely because it was married to gold through what we call the gold standard. So cash was simply a proxy for gold. Back then major business transactions were settled in gold. JPM himself used gold in his major deals including during the deflationary crisis of 1907. 

Now we're on the receiving end of 4 decades of erosion of faith in the currency, starting with the Nixon Shock of 1971. That's what set off the great inflation. Since then there's only been printing. We talk about trillions today as people back then talked about billions. But prices haven't appreciated 1000-fold, but they could. 

It all hinges on one simple question: after the collapse that you've envisioned, will an old Chinese guy trade you a moldy loaf of bread for American cash? Or will Germans ship cars for dollars or demand Yuan or gold or no deal? It becomes nebulous how much a dollar is really worth during times of chaos when there are literally oceans of dollars.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 17:38 | 688261 honestann
honestann's picture

And I assume all these conclusions are based upon historical analysis, right?

Well then, consider.  This is the first time in human history that the entire world of currencies have been fiat.  Therefore, any conclusions based upon history are worthless.

However, we can gain a reasonable perspective by analogy by looking how much gold would buy relative to local fiat currencies when those countries went ape printing fiat.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 19:12 | 687089 AUD
AUD's picture

"the bond bubble officially popped."

That's a big call. Can't say I agree with that.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 23:06 | 687531 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 Yes; it's just an opinion. No-one knows at this point.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 20:09 | 687200 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

Can anyone recommend a commodities brokerage? I want to buy 2015 oil.

TIA

 

 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 20:54 | 687301 wake the roach
wake the roach's picture

The price of oil (in nominal terms) will be less than today in 2015. The problem with economic collapse is that demand for energy decreases. The nominal price of oil will collapse with it but in real value terms, oil will be more unaffordable than when its nominal price collapsed because when an economic system deflates, employment and consumer income does to... If you want to make money in oil, wait for the rush to the exits and short it back down to its 2009 $34 low which will be an initial resistance target.

Please, for your own sake, quit thinking of things in nominal value. Always judge a nominal price against the scarcity of monetary units. Extreme energy scarcity is in our future, but for many years there will be more energy available than can be used as the medium (money) of which we use to connect buyers and sellers will be in very short supply. Only once production collapse is forced through years of over supply will the nominal price of energy begin to rise and thus, make the real price of energy even higher. Money itself is only a physical medium we humans use to represent that claim on unquantifiable (to the senses) energy. Once you can wrap the mind around that fact, things will become much clearer ;-)

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 23:47 | 687584 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Wake, you seem to know your economics well and understand deflation's devastating effect. Come back to ZH more often and explain to these hyperinflationists and gold bugs why they are wrong in the short term.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 02:52 | 687706 Popo
Popo's picture

I went on a similar rant a few months back and got junked to oblivion by gold bitchez.

Without increased spending there will only be price increases based on short term speculation, supply chain disruptions and the collapse of the overhang in productive capacity.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 11:03 | 687925 -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

same here... some dont understand that crude oil is 

1) not gasoline

2) not a currency

3) subject to supply and demand

 

I would not be surprised if oil goes to 35 if we get a meaningful correction in equities and a dollar bounce

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 05:06 | 687757 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

"Extreme energy scarcity is in our future, but for many years there will be more energy available than can be used as the medium (money)."

Yes, but I'm willing to gamble that time is less than 5 years out...and I'm not interested in debating folks on counter-party risk or peak oil time line....fer christ sakes, stop thinking Mad Max and the end of the USA.

I backed up the truck in dollar hedges (PMs & CHF) in 2007 and that has turned out pretty well. I'm assuming no one posting these disparaging comments can recommend a brokerage.

 


Sat, 10/30/2010 - 17:32 | 688254 honestann
Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:39 | 687472 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

You have been here over a year and you ask this question? You have GOT to be kidding. Are you aware of the possibility that the brokerage will not be in business at that time? It's called counterparty risk and it is THE most important thing you should consider NOW.

I don't even trust Interactive Brokers for Dec 2012 options. Who knows if my assigned counterparty (and trade in the event of a data attack) will even exist?

2015 options? Bwahahahahaha....unless you are a seller of puts, don't waste your time.  And that is a dangerous place too--not a great idea. Buying calls? >>>>>>>phlem reguritating>>>>>>>>>>>>>NO! 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 23:02 | 687527 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 No, you don't. You want to buy Silver. Commodities brokerages are all over the internet.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 23:02 | 687528 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 No, you don't. You want to buy Silver. Commodities brokerages are all over the internet.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 02:54 | 687707 Phat Stax
Phat Stax's picture

Does it take an IQ of 145 to continuously enter comments twice?

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 18:53 | 688334 duncecap rack
duncecap rack's picture

Good one.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 20:12 | 687204 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

all those "hoardes of cash" have been "buying commodities and government debt" from day one.  and now "we have been attacked."  we shall see "if there are 50 more of those devices on 50 more of those planes."  are you "ready to vote like an Iraqi"?  i think you'd have to be delusional not to see the message but, hey, some have "other priorities" as they say.  "ahh, the voter" i was told.  "do we look like we were elected?"   indeed, they didn't.  should they have added that "elections don't matter to those running or to them"?  That would have been "refreshingly honest."  now onto the subject of "bubbles, bonds and the dollar.  bubbles, bonds and the dollar." not just fightin' the Fed anymore are ya?  that would be "the entire Federal Government of the United States" right?

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 23:44 | 687582 Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

Regarding Gold.  Did you really expect Gold to go down in anticipation for more US $ Dilution next week?  C'mon...

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 04:43 | 687737 Popo
Popo's picture

Sell the news.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:32 | 687623 abalone
abalone's picture

Dollar revival coming. Big thumbs up to the Roach

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 15:15 | 688118 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

PRC hopes you're right (not to mention any other nations overloaded with crap paper they wish unload at the first opp). That will enable them to divest while the divesting is good.

 

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 06:23 | 687770 longshortflat
longshortflat's picture

Libanman"

 

Could you please use more contrasting

blues (small spec, spread)

as they are indistiguishable.

 

Thanks.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 09:16 | 687866 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

The fuckin 1 year gold and ZH bright lights talking about gold like they know it.You know shit.

Get a fuckin grip you peckerheads. Gold is 5000 years old and ZH is much older than that and growing. You know shit. All you know is short or long fucking asshole toilet paper worthless computer screen crap that doesn't even exist cause Benny and the Inkjets created it. .

You have no f'in clue what you talking about. This is the destruction of  world currencies mother fucks with you and your family eating soup from soup kitchens cause kn one will take your shit ass toilet paper.

You can't short disaster. Ther eis no short there is no long -  You can only keep your family safe with guns, gold, grub.

Short that with your pimple assed shitforbrain desktop trading software made in China run some shitball brained dude sitting in some mother fuck mothballed warehouse in Harlem that used to be a ghetto but now is full of yuppie 1 million dollar mortages which will never be paid back and the your banker tapping at your door.

fuckin dumbasses

 

Grow up and learn what this is about

 

SURVIVAL BITCHEZ SURVIVAL

 

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 10:43 | 687910 macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

maybe you and Howard should go out on a date

 

Between two evils, I always pick the one I never tried before.
Mae West

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 09:17 | 687867 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

I'm fed up and I'm not taking it anymore

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 12:18 | 687974 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Your medication?

Your talking about your meds, ....right?

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 15:36 | 688159 trx
trx's picture

"Stock market bubbles don't grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception."

(George Soros)

Nobody Knows the Bubbles I’ve Seen

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 16:21 | 688196 frankoo
frankoo's picture

I want first bid on the donkeys when they repo the Grand Canyon.

Sun, 10/31/2010 - 12:43 | 688957 Silversinner
Silversinner's picture

The system is so fucking broke,we will never see real return of

interest above zero.This is why it is much better to be in PM

until the system resets.

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