Commitment Of Traders: The Speculative Treasury Bubble Pops As Dollar Longs Continue Rising

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Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:09 | 686947 SMG
SMG's picture

This goes against all common sense right now,  but I think we are going to see, for at least a short time, a dollar rally and a stock market/ precious metals nose dive.

Of course I'm a stinky investor so don't listen to me.



Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:13 | 686959 Cdad
Cdad's picture

That is exactly what is about to happen.  The largest profitable trade on the street now is short dollar.   It is way over done.  Gold has huge profits to be booked. 

It is a no brainer.  The only question did it NOT start today?

Hat tip to Tyler...for this week's sweat equity.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 20:21 | 687224 flacon
flacon's picture

Good question: How did it NOT start today? Perhaps TERRORISM or perhaps enough people are going to HOLD THEIR GOLD/SILVER and NOT SELL into Nov 3rd? My miner stocks have not done as well as the metals themselves. I really want another 500oz of the WOLF series maple leaf silver coins. Should I hold on to stocks and trade out later, or should I cash out now into USD and buy up on "perhaps" drop? Dunno...

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:20 | 687430 Howard_Beale
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These are the kinds of questions/comments that rarely occurred a year ago here at ZH without tons of what if's, ridicule, and good jokes.

So here's the answer: get out your fucking Ouigi board or flip a coin. We don't have the answers, my friend.

Dammit, what the fuck is wrong with you? Get some gumption and stop with the stupid questions. Make a decision and live with it and don't expect a fucking decision bailout here. Riddle me this, riddle me that--

Hey, I got one--Why did Bernanke cross the road?

Answer: Who fucking cares unless he was hit by a car and killed.

Talk to a financial therapist or suck it up. 13 weeks here and you think you are going to get advice or an answer to your problems? 


Fri, 10/29/2010 - 23:33 | 687572 chopper read
chopper read's picture

i would classify this response to his question as 'the death penalty for jay-walking'.

i reckon gold (and other commodities) and the USD can go up on some days together as stocks and bonds are liquidated and foreign fiat is printed alongside the USD (specifically Japanese Yen and perhaps Euros).  

just my two cents. 

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:03 | 687602 Howard_Beale
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I got 3 cents that say you could be right and could be wrong.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 23:56 | 687597 waterdog
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Whoever flagged this as junk can suck my chicken as soon as your mommy and daddy finish paying for your braces. Please remove your retainer.

Thanks Howard, I was beginning to think I was not able to laugh anymore.


Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:26 | 687598 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

You are very welcome dog. It's time for the one year club to beat some sense into these late to the partiers and take the blog back to some sense of reason. We got Banzai finally to contrib status and I highly recommend Money McBags contributions. He is a riot.

It's time for revolt. Right here at ZH. Enough newbie porchies yakking up their problems. Time to get back to the best laughs around right here. It used to be a great laugh everyday and now it is a junkfest of clusterfucked horseshit with racist survivalist nonsense. Fuck this bullshit and fuck everyone that is offended by the word fuck. Bunch of phucknuts...we could have Cheeky here with brilliant insights and hysterical rants but he left, we could have Deadhead creating brilliant conversations that left you on the floor, we could have all kinds of fun. But the newbies and trolls became the junker assbites and the blog has been captured.

Time to take it back. Get obscene. Get silly. Get real. Nuff said. And fuck any lameass that junks me because you are morons to begin with and it means squat to me and those with a brain here. Phucknut junkers--eat me.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:46 | 687636 waterdog
waterdog's picture

I remember the girls and crazy writing boys. Too many of us took the responses personally. I for one was probably the biggist idiot that ever posted here. Junk was my middle name. I miss the girls, also Robo, Cheeky, and all the other lovable idiots. Not so much Junkyard Dog-he was clever though. I am not sure what to do. I cannot get into it. Things are so bad. I need some therapy to write. A hard kick in the ass, or something.


Sat, 10/30/2010 - 04:32 | 687728 PeterB
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There were some wonderful writers who I still believe moonlight these parts under different guises.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 13:56 | 688043 bookwurm
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If you cant shut down their servers, dumb down the comment content to the point of imbilicity

heres my .50 cents on whats going on here at ZH...


Sat, 10/30/2010 - 12:13 | 687972 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

"I got one--Why did Bernanke cross the road?"

Because everyone gets their marching orders from those that own them...

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 17:47 | 688269 honestann
honestann's picture

I own me... lock, stock and barrel.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:22 | 687435 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

imo (!), hold gold, silver, long tsy, equity puts; in three months sell last two, buy first two. reverse in five years.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:27 | 687452 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

And I'll take that to the bank of HB.

Actually, I agree with you on PM's after a good sell-off but I am in a nasty mood. I would not take off the equity puts, I would take my profits and wait for a bounce and buy more. But what the fuck do I know? None of us knows. We just hope we know that we all won't go down in flames.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:35 | 687469 jeff montanye
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the thing that worries me is if they finally do get inflation won't (nominal) puts be defeated on a nominal (but not real) basis? 

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:01 | 687600 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

There's an Ap for that. Stop worrying and start living. I don't follow my own advice but I am great at giving it out.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 07:09 | 687786 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

...but I am in a nasty mood

ya think?

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:30 | 687462 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

no more edit?  do i overedit? change "equity puts" to "sell equities" (for parallelism with the last sentence).

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:31 | 687439 lawrence1
lawrence1's picture

¨Gold has huge profits to be booked.¨

Makes me think of an Oscar Wilde quote about someone who knew the price of everything and the value of nothing.

As the Titanic was sïnking, I´ll bet there was a businessman entering one of the first lifeboats who sold his seat and booked a huge profit, thinking he was going to get on one of the next lifeboats... and, perhaps he did.

And with what certainity these predictions!  I like Yogi Berra´s quip, something to the effect that ¨Predicting is hard.... especially the future.

So ¨Book the profits¨! Collect the paper!  And sell me your gold, please, Ill pay full price plus premium.


Fri, 10/29/2010 - 23:35 | 687575 chopper read
chopper read's picture


Sat, 10/30/2010 - 08:41 | 687836 Arius
Arius's picture



i suppose some people just dont know when to quit dancing...thats the stuff losers are made of...

loved the titanic lifeboat gamble - good one!

but i suppose thats the way he got to be rich in the first place....just at some point the music stop and you dont want to follow Chuck Prince but Soros...

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 10:19 | 687896 macholatte
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In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.
Yogi Berra

A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore.
Yogi Berra

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:54 | 687505 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 The only question next week will be; "how did it not start this week".

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:54 | 687506 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 The only question next week will be; "how did it not start this week".

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:17 | 686964 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

I don't care what you smell like. I mean, you could wreak of a catbox, rank cheese, and a port-a-potty combined. My problem is with the word investor. Gotta get that word out of your vocab asap. 

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 05:14 | 687759 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

But, I see lots of people playing them on CNBS (WTF?)

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:21 | 686975 Kali
Kali's picture

My best indicator of how the dollar is doing is by my travels.  In the last few weeks, main tourist areas in other countries that used to freely take dollars in lieu of local currency are now refusing to accept US dollars and want local currency.  That tells me more than anything.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 19:58 | 687177 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture


Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:24 | 687448 -1Delta
-1Delta's picture



i take ur dollars  right now.



Sat, 10/30/2010 - 13:34 | 688023 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

I'll trade you mine for your gold, if you have any. And seeing as you appear to be so confident in FRN's coming strength you will gladly exchange your gold well below spot for my fiat, right?

Sun, 10/31/2010 - 20:58 | 689651 chopper read
chopper read's picture


Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:30 | 687459 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

Yeah...exactly where were you?

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 23:37 | 687577 chopper read
chopper read's picture

...he was in Zimbabwe.  

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:29 | 687621 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

Nice road trip. LOL...I think he was in magic mushroom land.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 13:39 | 688031 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture


"Don't tell him anything!"



Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:22 | 686978 Juggernaut Nihilism
Juggernaut Nihilism's picture

Agreed.  I hold plenty of physical, but am short in my trading account.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:30 | 687000 Cdad
Cdad's picture


Check the AH flash crash on GLD.  Nice...more than a 70% markdown. 

I'm sure Shapiro is on the case....

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 20:24 | 687227 flacon
flacon's picture

Provide a link please. What is "AH"?

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:23 | 687617 lo574
lo574's picture

AH = after hours.  BMO = before market open.  AMC = after market close.  Much to learn, you have, young padawan

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:34 | 687625 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

Thank you for asking. AH is short for asshole. In the financial markets it is an acronym for after hours. What you do with your asshole after hours is no concern of mine. And yes, we old timers have gotten sick of questions that could easily be answered with the evil GOOG.

Type in AH trading and bingo you get this! You see, this is how you can be a Zh'er and fake it.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 02:11 | 687683 dkny
dkny's picture

Internet Explorer 7 can be bad for your health.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 07:58 | 687810 Samsonov
Samsonov's picture

Hey HB, who appointed you comments-fuhrer?  From your rants I can deduce: 1) you are angry, 2) you like to rant, and 3) you don't know anything and assume no one else does either.  One comment should be enough to cover it for you.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 13:37 | 688028 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

 Oh Snap!

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 18:43 | 688317 AUD
AUD's picture


Sat, 10/30/2010 - 00:21 | 687615 lo574
lo574's picture

Uh, Cdad you might want to Google intermarket sweeps and learn more about the market b4 you trade it.

Sat, 10/30/2010 - 12:47 | 687989 Lux Fiat
Lux Fiat's picture

Always learn, or hear, about something new.  In looking up info on ISOs, ran across this lovely bit:  Reg NMS "...represents one of the most significant changes in the structure of equity markets in recent memory."  Also interesting was that final implementation of Reg NMS was on Oct. 8, 2007, one day before the highest nominal closing value on the SP-500 since its inception.  Hmmm...may be nothing, but it does make me wonder., page 3.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:33 | 687011 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I'd take a nice dip in gold to bulk up my positions.  I'm looking to buy some more in November.  I was afraid that QE2 was going to put it out of reach, but maybe not.  We'll see.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 20:28 | 687237 flacon
flacon's picture

Jack be Nimble, Jack be QUICK! 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 18:53 | 687051 wake the roach
wake the roach's picture

So QE2 is definitely going to manifest itself in more inflation, or so at least claim the speculators.


We have no MONETARY inflation through the real economy, only the inflationary ghosts of the great credit boom. The PRICE inflation we are witnessing in commodities (and thus manufactured goods) is completely speculative/momentum driven owing to the expectation of future monetary inflation (within the real economy) which will not happen. It is a self fulfilling positive feedback. Unless worker/consumer incomes are rising (is not and will not happen), speculative commodity bubbles are ultimately deflationary as the cost of non-discretionary spending lead to increased debt defaults, slowed discretionary product manufacture, higher unemployment, yada yada yada. 

We are living in the final days of the biggest CREDIT driven bubble that the world has ever seen (and ever will see). Yet somehow intelligent people continue to believe that uncle Ben is going to airdrop cash to the masses to begin the bidding wars. The TBTF are hoarding cash thats purchasing power is going to increase, just like it did after the last great depression. Problem is that when the nominal prices of just about everything do fall, no one will have the cash to buy anything, the bankers checkmate. Anyone holding cash will buy up assets for cents on the dollar. 

Again, unless worker/consumer incomes rise, commodity price inflation is ultimately deflationary. Until that happens, we will continue on our merry journey to the dark abyss of the greatest credit driven deflationary collapse the world will ever know and no one is going to trade you a moldy loaf of bread for an ounce of gold. There is simply not enough in existence/circulation to ever become a valued monetary medium. On the short to mid term of collapse, cash will still be king.

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