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Commodities: ON

Tyler Durden's picture




 

And just like that, without rhyme or reason (well, technically the draw down in crude was substantial with crude inventories dropping by 3.8MM barrels, on expectations of a 1.7MM build, not to mention gasoline dropping from 1.275MM to 119K) the entire commodity complex explodes, after the market tired of today's 3 hours of contractionary speculation and rotates the dial from Max deflation to Max inflation, bypassing anything in the middle. Expect the ramp to continue until the robots, which have now made commodities their latest stomping ground, tire of lifting every offer and go into full sell off mode, since it appears that once again nobody knows how to trade the end of QE2 and/or start of QE3. In the meantime, silver is up over 6% since yesterday. "Price Stability."

The driver: always and only the dollar. As the relative dollar strength value chart shows, while silver was underperforming the DXY by almost 6% through yesterday, it has now caught up as another round of dollar weakness has materialized.

 

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Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:01 | 1287373 rocker
rocker's picture

What's up with it.  Risk on day.  Or Bear trap.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:05 | 1287397 Arius
Arius's picture

thats what I dont understand about all this business of investing...everyone from Soros, Rosie, Buffet (of course), Blankfein tells you time to sellll commodities and all of sudden the opposite happens....hmmmmm....may be just bet the opposite...makes sense actually why would anybody tell the truth for free???

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:15 | 1287448 Pepe
Pepe's picture

Or: the famous lying/profit correlation tha Bob Pasani always forgets to mention

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:20 | 1287482 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

What's not to get? Insiders say sell, drones sell, insiders buy. Reverse. Wash, rinse, repeat. The only way to always make money regardless of price is to be in front of every trade. cf. P.T. Barnum.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:48 | 1287954 Silver Shield
Silver Shield's picture

That is because the world is catching on to these pigs...

http://dont-tread-on.me/is-that-a-light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel/

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:07 | 1287424 Clorox Cowboy
Clorox Cowboy's picture

Just  increased volatility associated with all the pressures building worldwide...nothing to worry about.  You'll know when it's time to panic.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:53 | 1287657 augie
augie's picture

+1

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:27 | 1287852 Mec-sick-o
Mec-sick-o's picture

Agree.  Traders market.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:12 | 1287435 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

One last run higher for all risk assets before the gutting that opens the door to unlimited printing.

Overheard in the Feds chief executive bathroom: "Make me stop writing bad checks."

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 14:13 | 1288097 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

One last run higher for all risk assets before the gutting

 

Absolutely. Notice the huge put OI in the equities (SPY) and everyone's beloved SLV across the coming near months. For long physical i suppose youre fine (though why not buy back at a lower price?) but for any paper longs id def be uneasy holding any sort of long, equity or otherwise, after today and the eventual (unsuccessful) test through 1349s ES or so.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:18 | 1287489 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Bull trap is more like it.  Get people to start buying in as traders are trying to unwind so that they can put a down payment on a rental in the Hampton's, hookers....err Ukrainian models, and coke.

 

If this does continue into July, then we will have a possible repeat of '08 on our hands. 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:22 | 1287826 Calculated_Risk
Calculated_Risk's picture

++

Hold on to your pants... it's gonna be a wild ride.

Not sure about Ukrainian models.. got some American business ladies though.. http://www.globalfreeenterprises.com

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:04 | 1287384 somethingelse
somethingelse's picture

i want to get another 100oz of silver this year and ideally would like to time my purchase at one of the lowest (if not the lowest) dips of 2011....

should i buy in May? June? July? August? September or beyond? 

i want to lock in my price prior to the QE3 bounce

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:06 | 1287402 bernorange
bernorange's picture

dollar cost average and sleep well at night

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:07 | 1287415 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Exactly. This has been the winning strategy for years.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:13 | 1287440 somethingelse
somethingelse's picture

makes a lot of sense in general, however, i work on full-commission and only have resources to buy silver a few times annually.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:20 | 1287504 tmosley
tmosley's picture

When I get a large sum of money like that, I usually subdivide it, and cost average that amount, depending on the bullishness or bearishness of the market If highly bearish, like now, I will buy in fewer increments (I did this in 2008), but if it is highly bullish, I will buy in more. Usually, my minimum for non-monthly allocations is four steps(minimum of a month between, absent a massive spike downward), with 6 as my max.

So basically, if I were in your situation, I would divide up the dollars and buy a pile every month at options expiration, or on a major dip like this one. Should sentiment turn bullish again, you are getting paid often enough that you can still do it monthly.

Do your best to keep some dry powder. I got caught without any on May 1st. It turned out alright, since it kept going down on margin hikes, but still--if it hadn't been for those, I would have missed the move.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:21 | 1287491 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

ROTFL. You will note that not everybody is born with the sarcasm lobe fully developed.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:14 | 1287443 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

It is always a good time to buy metals if you believe in the end game...

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:32 | 1287566 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

Hey, where's your kid at - no posts in this one?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:02 | 1287727 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

my kid is in juvie until saturday. the cops caught him molesting neighborhood cats again...he is a fucking weirdo.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:53 | 1287656 Strider52
Strider52's picture

Well, I didn't time the bottom perfectly; silver was at $32.50 or something like that, but Sunday night I got me a dog-choking load of 10-oz Englehard .999's from Apmex, for $34.68 spot. I actually paid a bit more for the preemo, shipping, gotta-make-money charge, expenses, fees, dog-choking fee, etc, but I bought while spot was under $35, so I feel pretty good about it.

  I'm amazed that it's still possible to buy silver and gold, and it's quite easy. Somehow, I don't think this will be the case forever.

Gotta love Robo's Mom's avatar. Too corrupt to prosecute fer sure.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:16 | 1287473 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

it's simple now.

Wait for a margin increase, then BTFD.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:24 | 1287510 kushmere
kushmere's picture

Exactly, the plan seems to be:

 Use margin hikes to keep Silver under $36, Gold under $1500, and Oil under $100. Those appear to be the official government "prices" for commodities. Absolutely insane to see this level of price manipulation in a free market.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:27 | 1287526 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Coincidentally, $36 was supposed to be the level at which JPM started feeling large amounts of pain from its silver derivatives. I thought it was non-sense when we blew past it, but when the price got knocked down to this level, and not much lower, it seems to lend credence to that theory.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:21 | 1287803 kushmere
kushmere's picture

We hear a lot about $36 Silver, but I you have to consider the actions of Oil. I'd love to see some good research about why keeping oil artificially low is so vital. These market fluctuations are very dangerous, and TPTB know that. Such high volatility drives good money out of the market.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:28 | 1287842 Calculated_Risk
Calculated_Risk's picture

Because high oil prices will keep the jobless recovery from happening!!!

Green shoots!!! GREEN SHOOOOOOTS!!! ANIMAL SPIRITS!!!! ROAAAR!!!

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:51 | 1287663 DosZap
DosZap's picture

With 100% Margins now, what's the wait for?........LOL

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:28 | 1287537 tonyw
tonyw's picture

Look on it as a long term protector of your wealth if you can't stand the thought of it going down by 30% then don't buy. Buy only what you can afford without needing to cash it in for a small emergency, put it away and forget about it. Don't try and second guess how the banksters will screw the market, remember they have all the knowledge and lots of fiat and will screw you over without a second thought. I bought most of mine at the end of '08 and have just sat back to wait, I'm tempted to buy some more now that my wealth has gone up.

Get all your other stuff sorted, loans paid off ...

hth

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:04 | 1287391 Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

On like Donkey Kong, baby!

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:06 | 1287393 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

It's moving too fast.

I'm still on the phone with the SEC trying to get my BEE.PR.C profits reinstated.

Target blamed the weather for poor sales, and Richard Koo said QE2 had no positive impact on money supply.

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:06 | 1287408 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

It is the cool thing to do nowadays. (Blame weather).

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:16 | 1287438 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture
Gas prices, energy prices, food prices - NOT hurting American Consumer (nor almost all retailers. Got it, people? The Bernank says there is too little inflation, but that even if there were inflation (wink), it wouldn't be a bad thing.

LULZ

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:20 | 1287484 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

Thanks. I will make sure to keep repeating that to myself ad infinitum so that it may stick.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:07 | 1287749 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

They're technically correct, in that way a broken clock is correct twice a day.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/03/110321-ozone-layer-hole-...

http://www.awi.de/en/news/press_releases/detail/item/record_depletion_of...

 

The science is still being done, but fairly sure that's a black swan of epic levels coming to a hemisphere near you; we'll see what next winter brings (50% to 25%? no-one knows at this point, barring the fact "having an atmosphere is a good thing"). Note: at this point there's no danger of anything more than sunburn, so don't press the panic button quite yet.

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:26 | 1287405 AladdinSaneGirl
AladdinSaneGirl's picture

Moby just tweeted: Turns out that there is a new breed of artist in lower manhattan 

Artists, sure ... 

BTW this post is NOT junk, if you actually read the link properly! 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:02 | 1287724 augie
augie's picture

I'd junk you just for following moby.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:06 | 1287406 GottaBKiddn
GottaBKiddn's picture

 

All inethical market manipulation aside, shortages = higher prices.

 

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:04 | 1287411 wang
wang's picture

stockman on Bloomberg TV noon hour

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:07 | 1287429 dcb
dcb's picture

you guy are really bad at technical analysis.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:11 | 1287447 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

True. But more importantly no DeMark indicators and MACD oscillators were maimed in the charting of the above HFT-inspired pandemonium.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:30 | 1287562 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

tank god for that

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:14 | 1287464 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

He should borrow your crayon and ruler?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:17 | 1287488 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Someone still thinks this is all about 'technical analysis'? Too funny....may as well just throw chicken bones and read em.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:24 | 1287530 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

I notice you didn't say sheep bones. Your icon reveals your bias...

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:27 | 1287548 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I prefer pigeon entrails.  More accurate when done at high tide as well. 

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:54 | 1287681 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Fresh pigeon bones don't have the correct feel or bounce and should be avoided.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:34 | 1287558 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

are you saying tha logic and fundementals have no place in buying or selling stocks or commodities or anything for that matter that the Government is manipulating on a daily basis?

 

well you sir are just a negative nelly! there is nothing wrong with the FED moving any and all markets at all times while anyone with a clue instide thier head sells and gets the fuck out of dodge!

***** Wall Street Insiders Sold 565 X’s MORE Stocks than they bought! http://goo.gl/O5y8I *****

 

The FED is doing Gods! Work!! You are just one of those internet terrorists who by spreading the truth and numerical facts.. would like to destroy the Lies the FED has worked so hard to put into place!

 


There is NO! Constitution anymore and there has not been a working Constitution in a good lil while now!  Bush 2006! http://t.co/SHwNGh7 Thanks Republicans! Great Job ruining the whole fucking Country!

 

Have a Political View? Share this view on Twitter or Blog? **YOU!** are a Terrorist PER Homeland Security http://goo.gl/0YRnN See Link(s) and Official Report(s).

 

Job Well Done Republicans!! Job Well Done!!

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:55 | 1287667 Howdan
Howdan's picture

+100

 

"The FED is doing Gods! Work!! You are just one of those internet terrorists who by spreading the truth and numerical facts.. would like to destroy the Lies the FED has worked so hard to put into place!"

 

Hahaha love it sir - I haven't read a comment that made me laugh this much in ages! Too true...

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:00 | 1287701 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Not that it matters, but THE KING has done more damage in a shorter period than any Republican.(Both are complicit).

Him aside, I cannot believe the Congress is hand in glove with the destroyers of what was the greatest nation on earth.

Something has to be in the water.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:19 | 1287794 tellsometruth
tellsometruth's picture

do not want to get into a political pissing contest here as that is want is wrong, too much pissing around while actually doing nothing, but I think a logical person can step back and easily see both parties are a lie

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 15:16 | 1288397 rocker
rocker's picture

We need a new abbreviation.

JBTFP = Just Buy The Fucking Physical

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:40 | 1287590 fuu
fuu's picture

You can always try Slope of Hope and the Evil Speculator if you want TA.

 

Or xhamster.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:01 | 1287711 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Technical analysis is only as good as the fundamental data it relies upon.  I for one would not risk a penny on any form of investment until accounting standards and enforcement of laws and regulations are reinstated, equally, for all (AKA fundamentals).  Oh yeah, and until the bots are killed, nothing manipulates prices in any market as fast or out of your favor as algorithemic trading thousands of time per second. 

As to commodity VIX recently none of us know why it is happening really, but a good guess would be to look at who has made money off of this incredible set of run-ups and declines.  Because while traditional supply and demand dynamics can cause some volatility it cannot trigger what we have seen lately.  For example, gasoline demand has been falling albeit slowly for years now, and lately rather quickly with demand destruction from over $4 a gallon fuel.  Storage is near capacity at most facilities, and while wholesale gasoline price has dropped by 40 cents a gallon in the last couple weeks the pump price (here anyway) has not fallen a penny, distributors are just raping the public and will till they are called on the carpet and investigated by some state's attorney generals.  WTI crude inventory was the same this week as last and a good thing too because there is almost no place left to store more.  Gasoline inventory was a small build even though production runs were curtailed in the flood prone Mississippi region.  The dollar was down, but only so fractionally as to not matter to oil products. 

I am betting that the longs will end up getting gored pretty soon.  And while I am certain there will be a QE3 I think it will be in a different form than the last two, I only know the average citizen will not benefit from it nor will it do anything to boost employment.  I do not think it will simply point a fire hose of electronic liquidity at the banks to drive up commodities, because people are getting burned by lower pay and higher prices it will become a large political problem before summer is out.   

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:35 | 1287884 Calculated_Risk
Calculated_Risk's picture

and you sucketed at grammar.

 

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:12 | 1287433 Refuge2012
Refuge2012's picture

There's another issue affecting the silver price dip... JP Morgan has to meet its shorts at the end of the month, and they want it as low as possible.  place of refuge 2012 dot com

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 14:00 | 1287442 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

tangible products only are worth a d@mn anyway

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:14 | 1287444 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

Commodities will be 'on' until 2020 (and beyond).

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:12 | 1287450 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

What happened to the great commodities crash?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:17 | 1287459 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

Fed frontrunning by "experts"

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:17 | 1287466 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bipolar_disorder

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:16 | 1287476 sbenard
sbenard's picture

But the equities Pollyanna Party resumes today! Pure printed prosperity!

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:23 | 1287503 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Of course it depends on what equities youre looking at as some of them are down by 20% today.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:24 | 1287528 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Stock index futures! That's my story and I'm sticking to it!

(Good post on $50 light bulbs) Cheers!

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:05 | 1287725 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Yep,

The mercury filled one's catch fire, or melt, and leak the "mildly" poisonous chemical into the air.

I have had one actually catch fire, and two others melt at the base,where the glass tubes go into the base.,

Use those at your own risk.

I am stockpiling 75/100W incandescents.

Soon, there will be none.

I have zero intentions of paying $55.00 for a LED.

Normal home, figure 20+ bulbs.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:07 | 1287756 augie
augie's picture

so what are all the speed freaks suppose to smoke their crank out of?

 

Bullish for needles and over doses.

 

 

Ya hear that Barry? now we're gonna have O/D's on our hands, COME ON! GET YOUR HEAD OUT OF YOUR ASS!

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:19 | 1287478 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

$50 GE lightbulbs from China. Might put a damper on the retail consumer $10 rice burrito stocks. 'Um yes I need 3 lightbulbs for my new lamp please? OK that will be $150....want to pick up some spares for when they burn out in a week'?

Ah...the glory that is America!

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:24 | 1287508 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Don't forget to pick up some Hazmat gear to clean up the mercury when they break.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 14:31 | 1288182 tmosley
tmosley's picture

The $50 ones are LEDs. No mercury, they never break (unless you just grind them up), they have a practically unlimited lifetime, and they use even less electricity than CFLs. Also, no warm-up period, like a lot of CFLs.

The main downside is that it is hard to get bright ones--and those that are bright may not last as long (as heat will break them down much MUCH faster than if they were cool), they are crazy expensive, and they don't produce a very natural looking light.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:28 | 1287551 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

I looked on Amazon earlier and they are selling 45 packs of GE 100 watt light bulbs (obviously the good incondescent kind) for 30 bucks. Not too bad of a deal.

Might have to buy 3 or 4 of them...

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:49 | 1287650 Bindar Dundat
Bindar Dundat's picture

Can we start a light bulb market on COMEX ?   

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:10 | 1287752 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

I'm bullish for 100 watt light bulbs. I'm pricing them out. I'll stock up and sell those bitches. 45 dollars a piece. Thats a 5 dollar savings!

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:59 | 1288007 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

if you're smart, you'll take that $5 saving and go dig up an ounce of silver!

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 14:26 | 1288175 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

Oh i won't be the person saving money, the person who is buying my lightbulbs instead of those bullshit LED ones will be. And yes they can go dig out silver if they can go find it. Might cost them more than 5 dollars though.

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:20 | 1287486 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

This is not rocket science.

There will be no growth in the post Peak world and there is nothing anyone can do about it.

When you recalibrate your brain to understand that "goals" now are to see one's lifestyle degrade slower than others, then and only then do you have a chance to understand what success is.  When "lifestyle" becomes "food supply", then you'll really understand.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:28 | 1287535 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Welcome back, Mako.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:46 | 1287621 fuu
fuu's picture

I miss mako.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:52 | 1287649 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I don't. Death worshippers have no place in civil society.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:58 | 1287687 fuu
fuu's picture

I never got the death worshipping side. I always read it as accepting of what history shows will most likely happen. The death tolls appear to be rising at this point. No where near say WW2 or WW1 levels but we are still early in the game.

 

Meh anyway, I miss some of what mako had to say.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:30 | 1287873 Calculated_Risk
Calculated_Risk's picture

DITTO!

'all you ANTS are gonna die!!!! Tanks are rolling over your skulls and death and mayhem cause history...' <pant> <pant> <pant>

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:29 | 1287538 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Club of Rome.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:40 | 1287588 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

I want to consider all arguments. I have asked and still want a response from an optimistic person about...

"What exactly would need to happen for increased growth and increased standard of living to happen?"

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:53 | 1287653 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Options:

1) Revalue everything by calling all outstanding debt.  Then we'd be at the "bottom" with only upside.

2) Take a stash of heirloom seeds, your dog, and some fishing tackle to an uninhabited island and start your own country.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:57 | 1287707 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

There seems to be two different types of Debt. Debt like large governments and banks know it, and how everyone else knows it.

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 14:15 | 1288112 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Yes - gov't debt finances other gov't debt and obligations.  Not much in the way of "assets."

But for the revaluation notion, I think of debt as that which won't be paid, and that which might.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 14:34 | 1288210 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

The definition you give is the real one.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:53 | 1287678 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

The typical answer is that Unicorn farts can be used in fuel for personal fusion generators....

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:51 | 1287648 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Look up the concept of the "Earthship". Such structures provide all the basic necessities for their inhabitants, including enough electricity to run a modern lifestyle for a somewhat larger investment in panels.

Look at that, and imagine the entire population of the Earth converted to such structures, or similar ones. Then realize that everything else done outside the home (the house mostly takes care of itself) will feed directly into society's capital.

Christ, I can raise enough potatoes to feed whole neighborhood for a year with a box of large black trash sacks and a few cubic yards of topsoil.

Living isn't hard, when you know how to do it. Even if you don't have access to energy from oil, coal, natgas, or nuclear, a few solar panels, or a simple windmill will pump your water for you, and the proper allocation of capital will create a continuous stream of food to supply all your needs practically automatically.

Think about the temperatures that can be created by a simple parabolic reflector--hot enough to melt sand into glass. Glass that can then be cast into a large lens to create a solar forge that can be used to make practically anything, including solar panels.

Peak oil will be about as dramatic as peak charcoal was in an industrializing England. A short depression followed by the invention of new processes that are better than the old ones ever were. Unlike then, we already have the technology available to us. We just have to tear down the building codes that prevent us from evolving past colonial architecture.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:06 | 1287747 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

I'm with you up until the last paragraph. I agree with your VERY last sentence but the rest I completely disagree with.

If it was easy to replace coal and oil we'd do it and have done it. Or even if there was any real alternative. Even the technology that fostered coal and oil "energy revolutions" came from what.... burning wood? Its not like that technology was "rocket science."

You start to accept the political environment (which is VASTLY different today than it was back during the very very beginnings of the industrial revolution) in your last sentence. It is becoming politically more and more impossible to have any recovery. Just look at the number of morons/peons clammoring for the end of the oil "subsidies" when the price of gas is UP! What kind of assbackwards nonsense is that. (last i checked subsidies were to keep prices lower.... people with more money make things cheaper for those who have less...)

We'd have to see a massive political change ontop of a huge fundamental shift in the way most of the populace views the US views production, private property, and what the basics of life is all about.

I read the other day this stupid ass article about how people are measuring the amount of happiness as it relates to large government and that more people are "happier" when there is more government. When did life become purely about happiness? I don't remember "happiness" pulling ore out of the ground, smelting it into a useable metal, and forging something useful out of it. Life and living is about life, but yet these moronic sheeps think life is just about mindless "happiness" (no work, no responsibilities).

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:24 | 1287821 tmosley
tmosley's picture

The problem is that the true costs of these various types of energy production methods are totally unknown due to an enormous complex of regulation and subsidy across the entire energy complex.

I know intuitively that right now, you can set up a grid tie solar system for $1.82/watt (http://sunelec.com/index.php?main_page=pv_systems&id=1530&type=GT), meaning someone like me could supply his entire household need for electricity for $12000 plus installation costs, AND get a check back from the utility most months. That's a four year payback, more or less (absent installation costs).

Now, imagine if the production facilities for these systems were ramped up to handle 100 times the volume they are doing now. Or if they switched over to super cheap printing press made graphene panels? Payback time drops to a year, or even less.

I guarantee you the first coke furnace was much more expensive than the charcoal fired furnaces of the day. But that didn't last for long. Same thing here. Economies of scale come in to play quickly with these sorts of things.

I agree that huge political change will need to come for any of this to happen. The only plus side to this whole mess is that it can't get any worse. EIther we change slowly and purposefully, or we change quickly via a collapse. EIther way, people will suddenly be free to do what they want without government interference. That is when positive change will come.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:30 | 1287544 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Crude up 3.5%.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:30 | 1287547 HellFish
HellFish's picture

 

I lightend up on my PSLV holdings.  Simple as that.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:28 | 1287553 spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

G-L-E-N-C _-_-_

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:32 | 1287555 JR
JR's picture

zero interest rates forever (plus QEI and QEII, adding $2 trillion to the Fed’s balance sheet), might do more than just depreciate the dollar. –Richard Benson

It’s the body block assault against the landslide of hype for continued printing…delivered as only Richard Benson can do…in his piece “Boomerang Inflation.”

“The central Bank itself,” says Benson, “is now becoming the biggest threat to the average American.” Here’s his evidence—added to that just presented by TruthInSunshine :

 "What goes around….comes around” is an old adage with common sense logic.  It’s just perfect karma for those with an affinity for the concept of eastern thought.  However, if this simple cliché means you got what you deserved and justice prevailed, the Federal Reserve has a lot of explaining to do to the American people about the depreciating dollar that, according to the Fed, boosts exports and helps the economy.  As a humble student of central banking, I have come to realize it has never occurred to Ben Bernanke that zero interest rates forever (plus QEI and QEII, adding $2 trillion to the Fed’s balance sheet), might do more than just depreciate the dollar.  

According to figures compiled by the United Nations, the cost of food worldwide rose 37 percent from February 2010 to this year.  You may also have noticed in the news lately that rising food prices have toppled Arab governments around the Mediterranean, and scared Chinese leaders lily white as they face strikes and the nightmare of possible revolution.  If only our central bankers could think differently about money printing and the hazards that have resulted because of it.  When I fill up at the gas pump now, I can see the inflation from easy money that boomerangs right back at me as I contemplate putting in regular gas (up 30 percent over the past year) rather than a higher grade, which my car calls for. 

Boomerang inflation is a weapon that works like this:  While the Fed sits back and prints more money like there’s no tomorrow, higher food prices are created worldwide.   Some countries have been so badly influenced by rising food costs that their citizens are fighting back by rioting in the streets.  The Saudi royal family, not wanting to lose their country to “dumb-ocracy”, had to bribe their citizens with another $150 billion a year in handouts to avoid riots and revolution.  The price that America will pay to keep the Saudis running Arabia is a higher oil price.  (In order for the Saudis to balance their new government budget, they need oil at over $100 a barrel.) So, by printing too much money, America has effectively been put over a barrel.

The Chinese economy, in the meantime, is feeling the heat as rising food and fuel prices have put incredible pressure on their economy.  The government was forced to raise the minimum wage by 20 percent last year and then again this year by another 20 percent.  The combination of 10 percent real growth and higher wages has added to the world demand, resulting in budget busting gas, food, and raw material inflation as evidenced everywhere in stores around the globe. 

What’s coming next is the inflation boomerang ricocheting back to America accelerated by China’s vicious wage price spiral.  Chinese truckers are blocking ports and other workers are striking because they are getting crushed by the rising cost of fuel and food.  The government remains afraid of yet another political upheaval reminiscent of the Tiananmen Square protests which rocked China’s leaders to their core as people stood up to the government.  It’s highly likely that the leadership there will cave in to the people, rather than be trampled by them, as the unrest continues to build.

Inflation in America could fluctuate even higher due to a big shift in China’s policy of holding their currency down against the dollar.  A rising Yuan helps them absorb rising commodity prices, and letting the Yuan appreciate is the last big change they can make to hold back domestic inflation and pray they don’t have riots and demand for political change.  A rising Yuan and higher wages also make Chinese workers more competitive with Americans for scarce food and fuel, pushing up their prices even further.  China has 1.3 billion people to feed and clothe (a billion more people than America) so any increase in the Chinese currency and wages influences the demand in a very big way for commodities, input costs, and goods America must importIt’s sad but true that stores like Wal-Mart can’t buy American-made goods because it seems we don’t make them anymore.

So, how is the American consumer really influenced by the Fed’s policies of money printing and a falling dollar?  In the past few months, the CPI has risen while disposable income has fallen at a five percent annual rate.  This is equivalent to putting on a five percent national sales tax.  Moreover, if inflation is just measured by the cost of necessities, the cost of living is rising at 10 percent a year.  (See:  http://www.shadowstats.com). 

The current generation is about to learn firsthand what stagflation feels like.  With prices rising faster than incomes, and the real standard of living going down, the only thing that has “Made in America” stamped on it is our inflation boomerang balanced by karma coming right back at us.  If what goes around comes around – and boomerangs are known for returning to their point of origin – Fed officials should take duck and take cover as an angry public gathers and begins to throw pies in their faces at press conferences after FOMC meetings.  (The new press conferences are, of course, being organized to try to convince Americans that the massive inflation is not the Fed’s fault).

During the recession we were told that unemployment was the biggest threat, but now it’s becoming clear to hard working Americans that with the Fed’s soft dollar, they won’t be able to buy a tank of gas to drive to work.  The central bank itself is now becoming the biggest threat to the average American.

http://www.sfgroup.org/Boomerang%20Inflation.htm

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:14 | 1287785 DosZap
DosZap's picture

From the article, one thing that folks can save "some" money on.

When I fill up at the gas pump now, I can see the inflation from easy money that boomerangs right back at me as I contemplate putting in regular gas (up 30 percent over the past year) rather than a higher grade, which my car calls for.  "

If your vehicle calls for 91, use the cheapest, lowest grade.

The new cars of today will automatically adjust to the lower octane fuels.No damage done.

With most vehicles this can save you $0.10-$0.20 per gallon.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:33 | 1287561 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

The dxy going from 72 to 76 in 9 trading sessions and it dropping .60 cents across 3 trading sessions is weak? 

Regardless, the volatility is unhealthy for a market and is going to cause something to break soon.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:53 | 1287670 fuu
fuu's picture

Dxy is such an ignorant slut, she will say what ever you need her to.

 

May I also say that volatility is the market. Without volatility how would anyone day trade? How would anyone rack up commissions and fees? Without volatility we would all be in the land of ice cream shitting unicorns.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:07 | 1287715 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Instead of typing out every major, "dxy" just seemed a bit easier.

I'm not talking about normal volatility, 6% moves in either direction everyday is not good. That kind of movement can wipe day traders out real quick.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:31 | 1287563 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Half-life of manipulations.  This is like the temperature of a kid with the flu once the motrin wears off. 

Probably time for Crimex to dole out more medicine...

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:36 | 1287582 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Chanos on China AND possibility of yuan collapse. I listen to very few, and Chanos is one of those I DO listen to -

 

http://www.reallibertymedia.com/node/284023

Well-known China bear Jim Chanos is on CNBC.

We're taking notes:

  • The residential slowdown has already begun. Sales offices are closing.
  • The overall China boom is already beginning to sputter.
  • Not sure if a collapse will have systemic risk for the global economy.
  • When asked about elites moving their money out of China... "As the party elites and others are trying to get their money out... the American public is trying to buy right in through the IPO market."
  • Anti-Chinese bet has been a winner. Property market has been a big underperformer.
  • If I'm right about credit creation and the real estate bubble, then the yuan might collapse. A lot of the hot money coming into China is based on the double-barreled thesis of yuan growth and underlying asset growth.
  • Jim Chanos reveals that he is short UK-based offshore gaming companies due to the fact that the management are shady people that we cant necessarily be trusted.
Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:38 | 1287592 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Yesterday I mentioned China slowing down and possibly hitting deflation and tmosely laughed at me and said it would never happen. 

It just pretty much guarntees that China enters defaltion sometime this year.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:53 | 1287651 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I have no personal animous towards tmosely, but if that's his position, he and I are far apart.

I've been to China multiple times. I have conducted business in China. I have seen tulips, bubbles and mania. Each and every one of them ended in tears for most, without exception, and they were only easy to spot by the masses just prior to imploding.

China is just about there.

China should be re-named to Chitulipina.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:56 | 1287696 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I use the old definition of inflation and deflation, ie the money supply. Their money supply is rising and will continue to rise so long as they keep their dollar peg and the West continues buying.

Their economy probably will collapse if they maintain the peg. But I don't think they will. A few more large protests over rising prices, and it will be gone. Then all of that inflation that has built up over there over the last 30 odd years will come flooding back onto our shores.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:38 | 1287900 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

If they don't de-peg, they can keep unemployment levels manageable, however.

If they do de-peg, there is no doubt that the capital inflow into their manufacturing sector will dramatically slow, and potentially reverse.

Anyone who thinks that just because Intel, GM and other multi-national corporations invested trillions in plant/capital in China means those investments can't or won't be undercut or made moot by currency wars in the blink of an eye is not staring at reality - they can and will if the state is stressed enough.

China's dilemna between employment and inflation is easily won out by maintaining maximum levels of employment, even tolerating higher levels of inflation to do so, given the astonishing demographics of China.

Anyone who doubts that China can stop creating enough jobs to placate the newly minted workers, given the massive youth population, and not have some form of serious political backlash, again, is not looking at the truth that resides in the raw numbers.

There's a reason China's been less than willing to bend to the U.S. and Europe's will, and it's not just for the sake of saving face.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 14:05 | 1288033 tmosley
tmosley's picture

What use is a job when your money can't buy anything?

Also, dollars aren't capital. Machines are capital. The machines aren't going anywhere. They built their own manufacturing base, they just had us as clients--non-paying clients. It was foolish, because every dollar that went to China was taken by the Chinese government, and the Chinese manufacturer was issued Yuan according to the peg. Their government then sits on the dollars. Basically, this means that the US and other countries have been getting goods for FREE. Every good they exported to us was a good they should have consumed themselves.

The US-China relationship is like that of a tapeworm and its host. The US derives its sustenance (goods) from the stream of goods that should have gone to feed the host. You claim that China needs us as a customer, but a customer is only good if he provides real goods (or the means to get real goods--ie money) to the seller. But the Chinese government is sitting on those means to get real goods. With no dollars coming back to the US to chase goods, we have been allowed to de-industrialize to the point where we can't even move on our own, just like said tapeworm, engorged on blood and food, choking off the life of the host. Eventually, they will have the tapeworm removed. But if they are really and truly dumb enough to believe the voodoo so many here subscribe to, then they will die. I doubt if they are that stupid.

Those who don't understand this dynamic are going to be very surprised by the actions of the Chinese over the coming years.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 14:28 | 1288164 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

First, I did not junk you. Not that you care (I wouldn't).

On to the meat and potatoes, now: A job is everything in China. There is no social safety net that we are familiar with in the U.S., Canada and Europe.

Chinese people have willingly traded low purchasing power for employment and infrastructure growth, and this won't change; in fact, it may accelerate to maintain a stable base of employment given the incredible demographics.

Jobs. It's mission #1 by a mile for the Chinese Government. They will remain the world's low cost, near zero regulation factory of choice if they have a choice (this remains to be seen given other critical developments).

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 14:39 | 1288222 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I don't worry about junks. I have pissed off a few butthurt faggots who now junk all of my comments.

On to the meat and potatoes, as you put it. Social safety net--doesn't really matter. Those are always a net drain on the economy anyways. Let people save up for their own retirements.

Second, the people had nothing to do with the decision. It is 100% a political decision. And it is UNTENABLE. As recently as last year you could earn enough money working in a factory to send money home, and hope to advance your life. No longer. Now you can only afford food.

Jobs don't matter. Everyone in the USSR was employed, but they still starved. Only REAL jobs matter, where you produce things that are sold to other people who produce things. With the US consuming things for free now, it just doesn't make sense for them to keep working. Eventually, they will have to leave the factories and return to the farms if they don't change their policies--but that won't happen before they riot. The government will be FORCED to abandon the dollar peg. They won't lose jobs any more than the US lost jobs at the end of WWII. They will retool for domestic consumption and continue to grow, or they will be choked off by an incompetent government. Those are the two choices.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:39 | 1287598 Robslob
Robslob's picture

In other news: "Pot calls Kettle Black"

When puking silver people have already forgotten the SIX margin hikes it took to take that metal down.

Other news: No margin hikes on the horizon for things we "need".

That is all.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:42 | 1287603 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

I was tempted to buy another 50oz of silver yesterday but was just too relaxed about the market - I am looking - if I miss fuck it , if it drops 10%+ from here I am in again.

Anyhow I have not bought silver since December - getting 1oz of Gold a month since then - but Gold not doing much in Euros since the first Euro  sov crisis of 2010 (has it been a year now ?) although with the usual volatility.

For the Euro to beat Gold from here I beleive they will have to succeed in rewilding the periphery of Europe - I have to say given the apathy in this country it seems possible.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:51 | 1287633 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

I'd feel a lot more comfortable about gold if it hit 1430s-1440s, but I like the relative stability of gold as compared to silver. Silver is if you're looking for a roller coaster, where as gold is if you're looking for a Fijian beach to lay out on.

Silver is going to have to punch through 36.65 with conviction to impress me again, not just hit it and than sell-off.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:18 | 1287790 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Its been a steady uptrend in dollar Gold this past year but Euro Gold has been relatively static although highly volatile in that time period.

This May to May period has been very very strange - as I said if Euro periphery countries can continue to recapitalise the core banks then all bets are off for Gold in Euros - its amazing how they can destroy entire economies to paint in their balance sheets - amazing power.

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:30 | 1287856 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Silver is if you're looking for a roller coaster

 

That's why it's nicknamed The Devils Metal.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:47 | 1287637 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Just as Rosenberg "goes bearish on silver" they explode upward...

How cruel can life be...LMAO!

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:54 | 1287659 silberblick
silberblick's picture

Read article on why the price of silver will continue to be manipulated: http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/market-manipulation-not-t...

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:40 | 1288747 Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

The COMEX has one more "5-hike" style margin increase under its belt until it gets to 100%. The last margin hike took them to 11%. To do a similar hike, on a % increase basis, will require them to get to 50% (so they might as well go to 100%).

At that point the margin hikes either won't be effective, or available.

While the US is powerful, no government is powerful enough to make price controls work for even a short amount of time. Artificially lowering the price creates shortages and a black market (with true prices). It doesn't matter if you're Obama or Hugo Chavez, the effect is exactly the same.

Artificially lowering the price is just giving people a chance to load up on silver at fire sale prices.

Interestingly enough, the developing countries are much more hip to the use of silver as a currency, having dealt with currency crises before, and being composed of mostly poor people. Mexico is latest on the block with its break from the Fed and purchasing close to 100 tons of gold for its central banks. Mexican legislators will consider this fall whether to mint a silver coin (an idea which has 80% popular support according to polls).

Imagine that, people in the US will trade fiat USD to get a Mexican silver coin.

Yes, the US will continue to manipulate the price, but the game is almost up. The 5-hike-panic-of-2011 will be remembered as the point just before the COMEX jumped the shark into irrelevance.

Until we learn how to print silver, or print oil, price manipulation will fail predictably.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:58 | 1287689 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

I now have the opportunity to buy $1000. It's small fry to most, but my biggest single purchase of phyzz.

Well at least I'm in the game. Isn't it a case of not needing to outrun the bear?

Anyway, I'm guessing best to load up now, or hold half for a knock down soon? This week?

If JPM didn't cover any shorts on this smackdown, is the concensus that another 'correction' is due, maybe to $25? Any thoughts?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:02 | 1287730 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I always cost average. But then, I'm an "idiot" for making one purchase out of dozens near a "peak".

The paper is going to continue to show more and more volatility, and likely will bias to the downside. Watch the premiums for physical. They skyrocketed starting May 1st. They are down slightly in some cases now, but if another major raid comes, they will have to rise again in order to keep inventory in stock.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:06 | 1287741 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

greetings fellow 'idiot'. been tough trying to find anything physical near the paper price lately

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 14:12 | 1288063 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You are really bad at math. $1.61. 60% higher isn't "a little". It's also a bit odd that the premium there is about 1/3rd of that for small amounts on APMEX.

Also, look at nucleo: http://www.bulliondirect.com/nucleo/lp/Silver_Bullion_999_pure_Bars_Roun...(1.00_oz).html

Notice anything odd about the bid and ask sides?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:50 | 1288789 Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

BullionDirect:

Warning Operational Delays

Due to heightened market activity please expect delays in customer service, accounting, shipping, and receiving.

I guess that's what happens when you sell for too low a premium (you run out). Average premiums have only occasionally dipped below $3.60, in the last week (during the silver run up today).

If you really want something just over spot, then get yourself some dimes.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 14:44 | 1288263 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Not sure why you've been junked there T. Thanks for the reply. I just wondered as it's a small amount to most, is it still best to spread it or just dive in. I'm still of the mind margin hikes will continue and JPM will flood the market. I have no doubt any purchase now will be rewarded, but want to try and pick up as many ozs as possible. If shorts weren't covered in this raid, I wonder if Blythe will try to kill off weak hands that have tentatively stepped in between $35 and $40, only to crash it to $25, cover the shorts and then let it all go as the longs they've then put on rake it in. Just a thought!

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:46 | 1288772 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Oh, if it is a "small" amount, where the price will be significantly raised by shipping costs, then you will probably want to do fewer buys.

When I was starting out, this was a real factor for me (especially considering that the $20 shipping could get me two more oz). You'll have to crunch the numbers on your own situation. Of course, if you are buying at a local dealer, it probably won't matter, unless, as is the case in Texas, you have to buy more than a certain amount at a time to avoid sales tax ($1000+ here, IIRC).

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:51 | 1288796 Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

Margin hikes to stop working soon. Although I guess the new strategy is hiking oil to lower silver (and the rest of the complex).

The hikes are meant to make people gun shy. They will eventually fail (as all leverage and liquidity is removed).

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 12:58 | 1287712 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

I believe PMs are in a secular bull market, but it's a bit ridiculous to declare the "All-Clear" signal.  Technically, silver is very damaged right now.  And the volume on the silver ETFs is nothing to write home about.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:09 | 1287745 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Low volume short-covering for sure.  Could turn into more - that will depend on resolution of the debt ceiling and QE issues.  But to the doubters - technicals do work if you want to trade.  I warned of this AH last night.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:09 | 1287763 sbenard
sbenard's picture

The Pollyanna Party is back ON too! The Fed has invited us all to come. You can even crash the party if you like! 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:11 | 1287765 tellsometruth
tellsometruth's picture

UK INFLATION REPORT FROM THE STREET:

while I have been studying abroad here in London Marks & Spencers (had a great quarter btw) Simply Food has raised the price on their small bagette (which I eat with one of their good cheeses usually a cambozola and a small bottle of beaujolais in the park since the weather has been amazing for the most part this Spring, lovely chain someone needs to start something similiar in NY or SF), a staple item for them from 58 Pence to 62 Pence.

I brought this up to a older gent working as a cashier and remarked that "well isn't everything" and we proceeded to discuss briefely the corruption in current monetary system and importance of PM's

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:45 | 1288782 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I have developed a deep love for English cheese. I never thought I'd eat a cheese that was "crunchy" and like it.

Closest you can get around here is Irish, which is passable.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:58 | 1289262 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Hey T, we've got cheese's coming out of our arses here in the UK ... mmm tasty.

We have an annual cheese festival locally, about 500 cheeses it's amazing - a quaint English village style fayre. I'll have to send you a platter next time :) Let me know what you enjoy.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:20 | 1287809 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Expecting margin increases across whole commidity complex in t -60 min's.

Also expecting cramer to have some sort of seizure requiring a dart gun, when discussing the movement in commodities today.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:43 | 1287918 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Please don't use a dart gun. He's already medicated enough as it stands.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:47 | 1287952 Lost Generation
Lost Generation's picture

It seems to me that the volatility we have been seeing in the commodity markets is a sign of speculation due to yield chasing.  As has been said many times on these boards the game of musical chairs goes on until it doesn't. 

The only long term buyer I see in this market is the 401k herd who have no other choice than to 'donate' a % of their pay check each payday to get an employer match.  Does anyone have an idea of how much the 401K'ers throw at the market every two weeks?

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 13:52 | 1287960 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Cramer is anxiously awaiting the arrival of QEx, in whatever form it may take, in his demented little brain and his poly dreams.

The reality is that QE3 or QEx, involving anything remotely close to past iterations, will only exacerbate the problems confronting The Bernank, and further, it will actually hurt Wall Street (and I do think the reality is that retailers are already screaming at the Fed and Congress behind closed doors, and that no one can deny that the U.S. and Europe are just too damn big on the consumption scale to be able to sacrifice on the altar of continued levels of inflation without Wall Street getting what someone else referred to as "boomeranged").

 

Whew...run on sentence.

 

Bernank can't merely kick the can, again. There's a giant and sturdy wall at the end of the road he's come to.

When you get to the fork in the road, take it, Bernankincide.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 14:29 | 1288172 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

What happened with RMBS at 1:15 today?!?  Did they win the lottery?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:18 | 1288661 VFR
VFR's picture

the volatility in the metals markets recently suggest it's not a good place to be. Sit on the side lines and then after June 20th the opportunity will be apprarant. Buy,buy, buy

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:40 | 1288764 Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

Expecting the metals market to not be volatile is expecting a little too much, methinks.

BTFD.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:39 | 1288754 Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

Where the fuck are the Sock Puppet Brigade today? Robo and Zing getting yelled at to clean up the basement (where they live) by mom.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:49 | 1288784 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Probably getting new marching orders.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!