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Commodities Take Out Support As Deflation, Economic Slowdown Fears Surge
And so the overly expected "deflationary" wave takes hold, just in time for silver to take out the $40 support. Next up: everyone runs to the exits over fears that despite nothing having changed, deflation is gripping the land, which, of course, is precisely what the uberprinter needs in order to get QE3 approval. In the meantime, weak hands should certainly hit those bids. While that is happening, we eagerly await to see to what record low Comex registered silver drops today, not to mention seeing InTrade odds on whether QE3 will come in August or November...
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There is no way the Bernank will allow deflation....
Of course not. But he needs to motivate Congress to 'Persuade' him, ever so reluctantly of course, to fire up the printing presses one more time to save us all from the deflationary monster.
ZH has been spot on in calling this since the start of the year. Next up we should see GDP downgrades from Goldman and the rest of Wall St., maybe a few dramatic down-days in the Russell 2000 and voila - the scene will be set for QE3.
Everyone, make sure you secure good seats to watch the sheep get herded around in retail stocks.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSHfnvy5mkA
He does have the Chinese breathing down his neck and the threat of a 2T USD dump. We see the move to gold in EM...Having said that, the scoresheet on economic collapse is so black, he has to step in one day to keep Obama in office for 2012...kick,, kick, kick the can.... till 2012 november time. Those autumn leaves...having turned red and shriveled...it will be time then...
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The bond market always gets it right. Assets are so bubbly that 5 year TIPS yield minus 0.60% versus under-reported inflation. That means over a 5 year time horizon many instituitions/individuals would prefer to lose 2% (assuming inflation is under-reported by 1.40% which seems reasonable) rather than purchase another asset class. I'm not willing to lose...so let me scour all asset classes for anything that might make a profit. This fucker is going to implode. I guess that million dollar compound might be the best place to hide. Whats the realtors phone number?
There is no way he can fight it. There isn't enough ink to print his way out of trillions upon trillions of CDO,MBS,ASS,TITS,CLSTRFCK,BS that's floating around out there. The end game is collapse,and if I'm not mistaken that is slightly deflationary.
What? No calls for you to return to TF and the open embrace of KD yet? ZH is slacking.
Herr Oberstgruppenforumfuhrer Denninger probably banned his ass for even daring to enter another forum, particularly one in which the g--- word is spoken so frequently.
Riddle me this: do you think there is any effective difference between a hyper-deflationary and hyper-inflationary collapse?
In hyper deflation you need less paper currency, so they could layoff people at the mints. They could also cut the salaries of the bubble headed bleach blondes who come on at 5 & 11 (est) - and it would appear to make the price of gas cheaper, meaning an election win for Obama.
Its rather like choosing death by hanging or electrocution, either way you are a corpse. This is zerohedge and on a long enough time line......
I agree with your second part but not your first. IMHO, there is no effective difference (over a reasonable period of time). Prices hyper-deflating would simply blow up the entire financial system. Hyper-inflation would blow up the financial system.
The argument that I find so difficult to believe is that paper currency will become MORE valuable in a financial system collapse. Paper currency is based upon faith, and in a collapse faith will disappear quickly...
+1
currency will become MORE valuable in a financial system collapse
The theory goes that hyper-inflation is based upon loss in confidence of the currency, that is, sellers refuse USD to settle their accounts, this would especially true of oil producers or other sellers of hard goods.
In response to this, the central bankers would print more and more USD, hence flood the market with worthless paper.
The hyper-inflationary event happens, sellers refuse to settle, and then we get the confetti. So the key is watching how long the world is willing to take our suspect paper for their hard wealth. When cracks appear in this willingness, the end cannot be far off.
sschu
Bingo.
Beyond that obvious logic, I take the historical approach (I know, wildly unpopular among Americans, almost all of whom believe that history is irrelevant). And when examining monetary history, one iron-clad constant is that chronically overspending governments invariably sink into unpayable debt, and equally invariably end up, either by force or by design, depreciating or collapsing their fiat currencies. ALWAYS.
Given this historical truism, I remain baffled that ANYONE continues to spread the nonsensical fearmongering of "the threat of deflation". I assume, at this point, that most of those who in fact continue to hype this nonexistent threat are willful propagandists and disinformation agents for the financial and political Powers That Be. The rest of them are just profoundly ignorant of history.
Some interesting words here..."overspending", "sink into unpayable debt", "depreciating", "collapsing their fiat currencies". Yes, all sounds inflationary to me!!
I'm not sure if you are being sarcastic, but if you were in that situation, and could "get out" of it by using the counterfeiting machine you have in your basement, wouldn't you do it? To feed your children if nothing else (think SNAP and rapidly accelerating food inflation)?
I wasn't being sarcastic,maybe a little facetious. All I'm saying is you guys are talking about the weather (inflation) and I'm talking about the climate (deflation).
Of Course I would "print" money to feed my kids. But what if all the money in the world couldn't overcome the problem of their being no food? (Read,all the printed money in the world cannot overcome the gifuckingnormous debt and derivatives).
In the long run,between debt,peak oil,and population,we are on a long term deflationary path. There will be inflationary pressures as the CB's try and INFLATE their way out of DEFLATION. You see, to me,the very fact that Bernanke is trying to print his way out means the trend is deflationary.He has all the shit MBS on his books because he is soaking up deflation,but he cant, he is trying to soak up the fucking ocean with a tampon.(I understand "soaking up deflation" may not be the best analogy,but you get my drift)
So,if yo want to ride these inflationary waves up when they come,please do. But just know that those are the small waves that you will see before the tsunami of deflation hits and takes out the backup generators of the complex society we now know.(LOL..see what I did there?)
If he tries hard enough to print his way out,he collapses the dollar,the aftermath? Deflation, of the present complexity of society..see, there is that deflation thing again...climate vs weather.
I'd like to see a chart about what is greater...the deflation in assets or the inflation in commodities. The contraction in credit (money in today's world) or the inflation in whatever you choose.
Didn't Regg just talk about Debt Saturation? There isn't enough money to service the debt we have. How, on a long enough timeline (there I go again) is that inflationary?
Think its a conspiracy or not our growth is going to be bumping up against an energy ceiling from now on. Doesn't sound inflationary to me.
Anyway I think you see where I'm coming from. We are talking about things in different time horizons I guess.
I really don't know what you are talking about with this absurd and historically baseless "threat of deflation", as the historical record is clear and unambiguous: INFLATION (i.e., currency depreciation) is the only real threat here, as it is always under any fiat currency system. If by "deflation" you are trying to imply a fiat currency rising in value, as it is generally understood, then there is utterly no historical (or logical, I might add) basis for such a conclusion.
Look, you can twist and mangle the definition of "deflation" all you want, but in the end only ONE thing really matters, and that is that the dollar is doomed, its value will plummet, and all those who have savings denominated in dollars will lose most or all of them. Do you deny that?
I don't deny that. The question is why are they inflating the dollar? Because the underlying current,is deflation. Because the debt has climbed to levels never heard of,in ways that bankers back in the paper currency days could have never dreamed of.
Inflation is the temporary threat.Until the deflation overcomes it..see Debt Saturation,CDS,World wide GDP falling etc,or until the currency collapses allowing the full force of deflation to be felt and assets to be valued "correctly".
But.... this time is different. There is no growing our way out of deflation. We now have a new paradigm..a hard energy ceiling with a growing population and decreasing resources..thereby causing each of us to have less..and to me that is the Uber-deflation.
A man has goes into cardiac arrest(our economy in 2008). The man is brought back by paramedics (something I might know a little about;) ). He is on life support with dopamine and other medicines and procedures barely keeping his pulse and blood pressure up. We give him some dopamine he gets a small rise in blood pressure and we say "look,hes getting better"(cnbc), some might say "No more dopamine,its too much he's gonna crash when his heart goes to fast!" (inflation). But,they are both wrong,because the man is effectively dead.Only the stimulus is keeping him alive and it will do so for only so long because too much damage has been done.His body is building a tolerance to the constant stimulus from outside. Sure there will be periodic signs of life and tachycardia (inflation)...but hes dead. Death is the ultimate deflation.
History is full of Empires that died fighting Deflation.
I think your definition of "deflation" is so mangled, and so twisted from its historically well-understood meaning, that I cannot even argue one way or the other with you here.
Absurd. There is NOT ONE example of any such thing, as "deflation" is generally understood. ALL fiat currencies have died in the fires of inflation or hyperinflation --- there is simply no such thing as a "deflationary collapse" to be seen anywhere in history.
And I am STILL waiting for somebody, anybody, to show me just ONE historical example of a fiat currency appreciating in value --- just one. Hint: don't bother, you aren't going to find any.
Who said that fiat would appreciate in the long term? I didn't. Do I believe that its possible and likely that the sheeple still think the dollar is a safe haven? Ofcourse. People will follow what they know to the bottom of the canyon. If that's the context your speaking of,short time rallies due to flights to safety..then yes it can appreciate. Long term all fiats and all economies and all empires...die.
Why did all these empires devalue their currency? Decreasing marginal returns. The empire got so big that every unit of energy they put into keeping up the status quo returned less and less. Or,another way of sayng it is they had to use more and more to get the same. That is deflation,or maybe you prefer the term entropy? So to get more bang for their buck,they devalue their currency. They believe having more units(inflation) will bring them higher returns. So.. History is littered with Empires fighting deflation.
As to the historical defintion of deflation. What is the larger amount? All the money "printed" by all the central banks...or..all the debt out here? Deflation is,in a sense less dollars chasing more goods,the opposite of more dollars chasing less goods. So if these dollars have to pay down the debt,and there is way more debt owed than there is dollars,seems to me thats is an overall deflationary trend..right?
I think we are agreeing in principle on most points, just differ in the definition of deflation, which to me is a falling money supply usually leading to a declining general price level and/or cost of living, such as happened in the 1890s (the falling cost of living, not falling money supply) and in the period of 1929-1933 in the USA (both money supply and cost of living falling).
Although I recognize that the rise or fall in the value of the currency is NOT the true or proper definition of deflation and inflation, there is historically enough correlation between money supply and currency values to make the use of those terms synonymous with the respective change in the overall cost of living, and my point was simply that there is no historical example of a fiat currency (and precious few of ANY currency) rising in value over any meaningful period or to any meaningful extent, as would be implied by the "deflation" that so many continue to persist in warning us against.
When I asked about dollars paying down debt it wasn't rhetorical. I believe from numbers Ive seen thrown around that there is way more debt than there is fiat. The question was meant as an educational opportunity for myself. Im no economist,I only started reading ZH by accident actually and from there have been learning some basic economic principals..Hazlett, Hayek. To me it seems that the inability to pay down existing debt is inherently deflationary. I tend to try and see the big picture. I understand that we are having an "inflationary " cycle now,but see the debt and energy issues as the undercurrent steering the ship.
So,that being said,what do you see in the "big picture" concerning debt ,ie derivatives etc,and the amount of fiat available to pay down debts. I read Reggie's article and to me it said that the debt has now begun to "deflate" world GDP. Maybe,what I'm describing is a world wide stagflation?
My $0.02...
Credit is paper wealth that represents physical wealth that will be created in the future. When debt defaults both the paper wealth and future physical wealth it represents get wiped out. Assuming no other forces like QE or commodity shortages are in play, the remaining paper wealth and physical wealth stay in balance and so prices remain stable.
Now introduce QE which increases the ratio of paper wealth to physical wealth. Prices will rise.
Deflation is defined as a decline in total cash plus credit. Since QE is less than the private sector debt decline we are in deflation. But due to the existence of QE, we are seeing price increases, especially for non-discretionary items.
Thus we are experiencing and can continue to expect deflation with rising prices.
I'm not sure why wages can't decline quicker than prices for other goods and services... as a result, I think those advocating deflation probably need to do a little more bolstering of the position... In other words, just because prices decrease does not necessarily mean you can afford anything more easily than before.
Let's walk through this logic, then...
This means you can't afford things more easily? I'm confewzed. I'm also confused that anyone could think we're going to have a deflationary collapse instead of an inflationary collapse. The Fed just simply won't let that happen. I can't imagine they would, at least. This might mean QE3, but it might not (I know, I know -- crazy talk). They might taunt/play with the debt limit and play some of those numbers to kill the precious metals first then hike up that printing press one last time laughing all the way to their now (even beefier) vaults since all the weak hands sold out their 50-100-300oz positions they opened at the "top"
Just an opinion. All I know is come end of May, I'm buying another 500 ounces regardless the price if I can find it... and I do mean if.
On a lighter note, saw this on my bullion dealer's site: "We anticipate this shipment of Academy bars being the last shipment we will receive for this product."
Sorry, but why is it again that wages get to remain constant when the money supply is decreasing and prices across the board are declining? What is your proposed mechanism for this to happen? Is the stronger dollar going to ignite our manufacturing sector? Do defaulting businesses hire more people and pay higher wages? Will there be more or less money to pay for the services that command the lion's share of our economy?
I'd entertain the notion that it helps savers when the money supply shrinks, but your proposal is a bit of a stretch. I think you're attempting to put forth an all things equal textbook projection of deflation without adjusting your model to our specific situation...
I personally think we're going to have bouts of pseudo deflation followed with inflation, which eventually undermines the currency until not a sane soul can deny its status, and then we will plunge into a hyperflationary depression... but, there may be plenty of bouts of deflation or pseudo deflation (the fear of deflation, i.e. what we're presently experiencing) before then.
What the hell is "hyper deflation"? The term makes no sense. Inflation, hyper or otherwise, is self-limiting. The only limits to deflation are starvation and death, and that's what keeps Bernanke awake at night.
The difference is relative really. Both end in the same place,a decrease in complexity. To me, a decrease in complexity is deflation by definition. En route to the end game there will be hills (inflation) and valleys (deflation) but the end result is the same. Our "system" requires constant,exponential growth,we live in a finite wold. On a long enough time line, the trend is towards deflation.
Fair enough. I liked that definition. But it might require a bit of explanation when used (as it is not necessarily linked to prices per se).
one big difference between a deflationary collapse compared to a hyperinflation is employment.
In a severe (Bernake does nothing) deflation, a huge proportion of the workforce will be laid off. This is completely unacceptable to the public and politicos...
For this reason, I'd bet on a very high stagflationary system reset, resulting in a significantly lower standard of living for most westerners...
I'm convinced QE3 is coming, perhaps by autumn.
who knows for sure though
Saying Quadrillion is easier than trillions and trillions.
ben never really had any chance, or hope of stopping that tsunami.
When the Mississippi Company bubble burst, the ensuing equity collapse should have resulted in deflation, according to this train of thought, but it didn't. France experienced hyperinflation.
France experienced hyperinflation because, as a centralised command economy with weak middle class and no entrepreneurs (they all left, the Huguenots, after repeal of Nantes Edit in 1685 by Louis XIV), the french state was stymied to counteract the debt ruin as it could not increase supply in cheap/abundant fashion. The french lost their colonial wars and subsequent access to cheap RM making their Import/export trade weak. This supply side constraint within home market, in a weak stultified state economy, with a large population, led to inflation as there was a large demand for a limited supply and no liquidity to prime the economic pump. Unlike Britain which had large access to RM and traded actively using slave cheap labor. The Brits had the East India Company that was a real multinational money winner which cruelly lacked in France.
I guess, apparently, like, that's what happens when like, you exponentially increase the money supply and like, people stop accepting your bullshit, like, paper.
Credit is money.Credit has contracted.Alot. The only thing that has inflated is ones and zeros on banks balance sheets,dumped into the market and commodities.
Benny Boy is trying to lite a spark and get a big boom,hes gotten a small flash,not enough O2 in the room to get the machine moving again.
Reluctantly agree. I have been expecting a deflationary surge for some time now. I know the consenus on ZH is inflation But I listen to Stoneleigh of Automatic Earth very closely. That in no way will stop me from buying the dip even though Stoneleigh counsels that commodities (including silver and gold) are destined to test the basement. One of the reasons that I listen to Stoneleigh is that she forcasts both deflation and then later Hyperinflation. We'll just have to see, now, won't we?
In the 1930s capital fled to U.S. debt and dollars from other defaulting governments. Now U.S. debt has the perceived default risk. Even though there is a quadrillion dollars of financially engineered derivatives risk folks still assume flight from those insturments into dollars. Where in the world is there opportunity or safety now? Sounds like those that expect massive U.S. deflation are still fighting the last war.
So you think the US will 1) be the only default and 2) default first? When I look at the rest of the developed world, I like the US a lot. How strong are those emerging sovereigns with great balance sheets when no one in the developed/consuming world buys their goods - what do they do to their currencies? How strong are the resource economies under a dramatic pullback in demand/pricing and what actions do they take? Globally linked economy and cascade effect - this is about sovereign survival. Of one thing I'm sure, I'd prefer to be in the US than anywhere else, and this view is shared by many many wealthy individuals from those other oh-so-strong developing nations.
Also recall the US revalued the USD in the 1930s - this is a default. By instantly decreasing the USD vs. gold exchange rate one would think heavy inflation would be logical...there was none for years.
Not predicting the future or invalidating your points in any way, but this is the counter point.
China for instance. There are various estimates about when China GDP will exceed USA some sooner, some later. Many dismiss China as a command economy, all export driven, unreliable numbers with seething social unrest. USA numbers are more untrustworthy every week, a vast command economy devoted to military, massive trade deficits and structural unemployment. US was pretty much the only game in town way back in the last depression. Is it still? England was the financial center of the universe before it wasn't as money had moved to the US.
I don't have an agenda, just want to be where the money is going.
It's a valid point. To answer the question - in the case of a major calamity, I actually do think the US is still the only game in town or the last dependable domino to fall (not that all other outcomes are worse but less certain). It is less than it was but ultimately, the US is the place to be if things go south. A lot of people like to talk their books, particularly those with good situations in the US or other developed countries - as well as a subsector of disenfranchised end of the world people, but I know a ton of successful people who reside in other countries who maintain a safe harbor in the US for a reason. They are the leaders of the rising global tide and they vote to make their security blanket the US.
Similar to you, no agenda but a few cents of conversation anyway.
Exactly- for every trillion in base he prints some asset like homes are going down faster and asset value plummeting 10x printing. The money goes to money heaven and fixing balance sheets.
Deflation is not the mirror opposite of inflation- the credit and financial system is runningnin reverse amd capital preservation is high. Price inflation is a symptom of the remaining hot money looking for a home. Look at homes, cars, derivatives, crap ETFs and other monetized asset not worth shit. They are going to zero bitches- and we can thank Greenspan for being sissyman for not stopping these innovations.
Fiat is just an accounting scam and asset valuation hologram. When reality hits, real assets soar, shit assets go to base zero and we all get hosed by the "system" as they rig the rules to funnel deflated money supply to themselves.
Ah yes, collapse. But you miss the important points. Who's in charge after the collapse, and what are the new rules? OR, in which lap lies blame? *Timmie needs $2Trillion! AND his needs will become exponentially greater until we kick the Physical Silver lynch pin from under the PONZI! Continue buying physical Silver.
Seems like The Bernack doesn't have a choice on assets.........
Cost to live, prices inflating......
Assets such as housing and cars, deflating............
That's the scenario I have been calling for for 4 years now. Massive inflation in things you NEED to live and massive deflation in things you own (like your house) and things you want but don't need. All while wages remain permanently stagnant or dropping. Hyper-inflation is a myth. What we will get is much much worse.
Then why isn't that Ferrari 458 I've been wanting getting cheaper?
To answer my own rhetorical, luxury wants are not getting cheaper thanks to the top 1% not getting poorer. It's the middle class stuff that's getting cheaper.
Deflation...inflation? They'll cook up anything to part John and Jane Doe from what little money they have left. Funny...it seems that Mexico, Russia and Thailand are buying the gold that the adle-brained Americans are selling. But maybe Americans are selling because they can't afford food now. No....that's not right...1 in 7 Americans are now getting food stamps. It's so damn confusing! ;-)
http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-04/mexico-russia-thailand-add-6-billion-of-gold-to-reserves-imf-data-show.html
another record month, food stamps now up to 44.2 million Americans.
The number of Americans receiving food stamps rose to a record 44.199 million in February, up from 44.188 million in the previous month, the government said.
Recipients of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program subsidies for food purchases jumped 12 percent from a year earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a statement on its website. Participation has set records every month since December 2008. Increases have slowed in recent months as unemployment levels declined.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-02/food-stamps-went-to-record-44-1...
Jumped 12% yoy yet increases have slowed.
I guess the increases haven't been revised yet.
Unless his masters are loaded with enough fiat to be nett beneficiaries......I am not saying this is the case but stranger things have and will happen.
He isn't the dollar continues to have a pariah status . Therefore this is a very serious shakeout but it isn't deflation . The bounce is what is going to be scary .
What is wrong with deflation? We have been told it is bad, but what is wrong with things getting cheaper. The only one that are hurt are the banks, insurance companies, and leveraged speculators. Hmmm, so the underlying assets become worth less than the underlying loans and the TBTF banks get squeezed. The Bernank only has the banks interest at heart. Of course they pay-off congress, too. Recessions are supposed to cleanse the system of bad investments, not allow the Central Bank to bail out the creators of the bad investments!!
Ask someone you know that lived through the depression what is so bad about deflation.
Your purchasing power decreases as prices decrease. Less dollars in circulation,means less dollars to buy Ipads.
What is wrong with deflation? We have been told it is bad, but what is wrong with things getting cheaper. The only one that are hurt are the banks, insurance companies, and leveraged speculators. Hmmm, so the underlying assets become worth less than the underlying loans and the TBTF banks get squeezed. The Bernank only has the banks interest at heart. Of course they pay-off congress, too. Recessions are supposed to cleanse the system of bad investments, not allow the Central Bank to bail out the creators of the bad investments!!
fuck, when is the time to trade my gold for silver? at $30 ?
If you are talking paper for paper, who cares. If your talking physical for physical it would be interesting to see what actual price will be for silver when it's around $35.
i am taking phyzical for phyzical, i dont know about the U.S. but here in europe the shops still have plenty of silver and the spread over the spot price did not change within the last year or so
As volatile as the non-market now is, there really aren't many facts to base a prediction on how low the price will fall before going up again. I think 35$ may be possible... not certain about this, but easily possible with a few more paper pushdowns in the after-hours. 30$ ? I'm sceptical that will happen, but i do not completely exclude it.
Personally, i'm thinking about buying at around 36$, or alternatively as soon as it trends upwards again above 42$. So, to me 36-42$ is the zone where i under current circumstances feel confident... above that, we may already be on the way up again, and betting on it going below that seems risky to me.
My target for buying more silver is $30, but I'm an optimist.
It's hard for me to see how silver can be very profitable for the European bourgeoisie thanks to the VAT. How do you do it?
The VAT sucks. Thats why most of my PMs are in gold. however given a nice gold:silver ratio i would by willing to trade some more of my gold for silver again
all of april silver gains evaporated in the last 3 days, glad I went 100% cash on firday
You swapped physical for paper that's brave .
He sells it all on Friday and then buys it all back on the dip and gets 25% more physical. Sounds smart to me.
Until too many others get the same idea and he can't rebuy the physical...
Immediate delivery? If so, brilliant! Gutsy! I applaud!
There's trading paper silver and there's storing physical silver. The spreads on physical silver might be 5% or so. Plus the taxes if you care. And finally, if you store physical silver it's there for a reason - which didn't go away in three days. Have a philosophy and stick with it, all else is noise.
+1 j0nx.
Would have also been more believable had you enlightened us of your incredible foresight on Friday, Saturday or Sunday eh?
Fire up the printing presses bitchez!
Rosie nailed the top with his bullish comments last week
Thats what I wrote on that article too- this is the surest sign of the top tick ever.
Rosie was bullish? Sad (but no judgment) that someone would wait 2++ years to be bullish and then flip now...
Rosie was bullish?
To clarify:
"""On (last) Wednesday, Rosenberg wrote:
On a very near-term basis, and despite my long-standing macro concern list, which has not gone away, it does look like the market is set to rise further. The technicals are suggesting as much, though I do await what Walter Murphy may have to say on the matter. I had said before that a breakout to new highs led by higher volume would be an important technical signpost. Well, we achieved that Holy Grail yesterday – both in level terms and with respect to the change. This is not throwing in the towel, it is an acknowledgment of what the market internals are flashing at the current time from a purely tactical and technical standpoint.
The capitulation of Rosenberg is a very bullish signal."""
i've never bought the pm's but seems like this sell-off is getting overdone?
It was overdone $5 ago......
Dollar down.
But rising quite quickly from 72.70
Shit, that only took two hours. I've been watching it hover at 72.95 for the last two hours only to watch it jump 73.10 in 20 minutes. The candlesticks are red again. I just don't see a big climb. I bet it'll close in the low 73 territory. Say, 73.20 maybe.
Haha! Only 9/100's off, bitchez. Now, that's why I stick to currency markets.
EVERYTHING'S down. WTF?
Oh, don't worry. The DJIA will end the day up 4 points, on account of "someone" placing large market orders on the last 30 minutes of the day.
Yup, I can see that happening for sure.
And, this is why I stay out of stocks.
Even if somehow I missed the top (which I'm sure I havent yet as Tylers right and nothing has changed) my kids will inherit a very nice chunk of change in PM's. In it for the long haul -generational wealth!
back in silver at mid 30s
I'm in at $29.99. Anything more than that and I'd rather spend my money on ammo which will be the real currency of the new world.
Usual shake and bake..
Got my net out at $37 all the way to $29. Two years from now, I'm gonna remember these next few weeks with great fondness
My net is going out here. I'll be adding here and there in bits and pieces until the bottom.
PMs certainly augering toward a lower plane: Precious Metals Central - Gold Prices
jpmorgue clients taking possession of gold: DJ Comex Gold Delivery Intentions Breakdown - May 4
silver a little calmer this morning. until now! DJ Comex Silver Delivery Intentions Breakdown - May 4
too mucho malo noticia b4 cinco de mayo, BiCHeZ!
japan = recession
or at least it is being painted to lQQk like one, eh? some stuff is admittedly transitory, but howzit comin with that 4-banger @ fuk_u? slowdown, ok? even europe reported some supply line problemos, amigos.
the crude oil report (oil stocks ^): DJ US DOE Oil Data: Crude Oil Stocks By PADD Recap-May
distillates (<sameish>): DJ US DOE Oil Data: Gasoline, Distillate Stocks Recap-May 4
i think the FED may have a chance to do a little "mopping" here; then they can re-cycle the "money" to the Treasury for the rinse/repeat!
even with the inflated prices goosing "sales" the juggernaut is, again, slowing down a bit.
will the FED accept this push against the batmanke's "Reflation Doctrine" huh?
stay tooned!
It's not about what you paid for it, it's about how many physical ounces you have. There will be a currency collapse, unavoidable...
Hell fucking yeah, muther fucker!
Exactly.
"...it's about how many physical ounces you have." i went to bed depressed. i got up depressed. so, today, i took half my silver and gave it to a homeless woman. made me feel better for a couple of hours.
Aaaaand it's back over $40.
I have an auction bid at $40 an ounce that expires in 3 days. Boy, this is getting hairy.
Bonds have rocketed non-stop ever since Gross said he was shorting them.
More proof that "Paper" rules over "Sound Money".
Bond yields in the sub-basement, NEGATIVE, along with the now comatose dollar and STOCKS which are even at best for the year in purchasing value. WTF are you talking about MomoChaser??
More proof youre a total idiot.
U.S. Nightcrawler getting lots of love tonight....
RobotTrader - Tue, May 3, 2011 - 10:08 PM
Flee to safety!!!
How is short term price action proof of anything?
So has LQD. Brazil bonds too. Anything he owned in Eur has performed well. I don't think he has said that he is sitting in cash. Just that there were other better opportunities, and so far it might not be a big win for him, but I don't think he has missed much on the return side either.
a) Gresham's Law, the bad drives out the good.
b) Gross CLAIMED he was short Treasuries, that doesn't mean he actually WAS short Treasuries ...
Robo, I liked the other woman better! While this new is nice, she doesn't stand out as much, which means I sometimes skate right over your posts...
Gundlach argued....very convincingly....to go long Treasuries....in February. He pretty much nailed the bottom.
Seems like there's a new Bong King in town!
Serious trouble for the Bernank who has been stoking coal into the furnace like mad to get inflation, and all we get is stagflation, yea DEflation in what the FED wants to inflate their R/E holdings, and a dollar in the sub-basement!
"Squeal, squeal little piggies", said BalloonBen and Timmah! "If we can't have it our way we'll just take the wealth effect away from everyone until they beg for KY and QE3."
Physical Bitchezz. Starve the SOB's.
So when does the CME roll back the margin increases on silver? Silver off 20% should at least cause the margins to roll back by 5%
Paper silver to go to zero as the COMEX collapses.
Real silver fast disappearing off the shelf among rapidly rising premiums. Hell, fucking 100oz bars from APMEX are $2 over spot IN BULK now.
Hold your physical. Nothing has changed. Use the fake out to buy more physical wherever you can find it.
can we all please let it come down a little further for me ? I'm expecting copper to make a wooshing noise as it rounds over in a one or two day collapse then buy silver hand over fist... but you guys are gonna buy it all up before I get a chance.
You're starting to sound desperate.
Seriously desperate.
Not desperate at all, I just calmly bought another 50 oz of junk dimes. USD 72.7 all you need to know.
No. Go back and read my posts from before the peak. I said specifically on many occasions that the real endgame will begin when the paper price of silver goes to zero on infinite volatility.
This was all predicted BY ME, and anyone doing what I told them (buying physical silver at or just after OpEx) is doing extremely well.
So that $60 prediction next week is off
$49 by Friday?
Yea...you're so fucking prescient; predictor of all predictors.
Only a fool never changes his mind.
Lots of fools around here. I am not one of them.
If you don't beleive that I made that prediction, here it is from February:
Fri, 02/04/2011 - 08:35 | tmosley (Total Score:1)The paper price is fake. The sooner it breaks down toward zero (among infinite volatility), the sooner the current system ends due to metal default, and "gold bugs" take over the financial system as physical premiums head toward infinite.
And again on Sunday:
by tmosleyon Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:46
#1226116
As predicted--infinite volatility, with a downward bias on the paper markets, and an upward bias in the physical markets.
I'd say the COMEX is about to break. A lower spot price means they can't get ANY silver out of the strong hands holding it now.
Edit: since the post from February was from argo.zerohedge.org (whatever that is) and doesn't have the post ID on it, here is the link: http://argo.zerohedge.org/article/morning-gold-fixing-bernanke-“catast...
You, sir, are a CRAFTSMAN.
Bob are you a silver troll too? A TM troll?
I didn't think so...
I'm a cheap bastard and use guys aren't playing fair.. I just want a chance to double my holdings something around..well 31 would be prefect, correcting 1/3 of the entire move to 50 from 0.
edit: well not quite 1/3 but a nice round elliott .382 anyway
You nailed it, friend. Enjoy your comments. I'll buy more soon. I never sell physical except for minor expenses, then buy it back ASAP ... and more.
Do COMEX inventories matter?
15.4 MILLION ounces have come out of the SLV trust (not to mention the other ETFs) since Silver hit $49
Expect more today. Physical is literally flooding the market.
The only thing that is supposedly hard to get according to ZH reader - Coins.
But keep in mind, coin production demand was only 101mm ounces in 2010 vs 1,056mm ounces of total supply (less than 10% of annual supply)
http://www.silverinstitute.org/supply_demand.php
And that is a big move up from the 39.7mm ounces in 2007 (before the crash), and the 79mm ounces in 2009.
The other 90% of the market is taking the lead here.... and destroying the silver price. Have fun trying to prop up the market by buying silver Eagles.
It's still not too late to sell.... it only costs five bucks to dig it out of the ground.
Thanks for parading that Marxist idiocy around. It paints you squarely as the petty little troll you truly are.
Take down silver even further, please. Going to Germany in a week, and plan to pick up round while there.
Unsustainable deficits financed through infinite moneyprinting never ends well, and usually in hyperinflation.
$5 production costs mean Supply will keep rising, even when Silver drops below $20 later this year.
Gee, really. How has that been working out for you so far? That argument has been equally valid since 2009, but yet it APPARWENTLY only applies when your statement needs to be somehow verified.
Of course, it also conveniently forgets that silver is largely a bimetal, produced as a result of copper etc extraction. As the need for copper, etc, dwindles, some mines will be mothballed as a result which should depress silver supply.
That's right. Everything is bullish for the price of silver. I keep forgetting.
Never mind that mine production increased by 80mm ounces from '01 to '08, while the silver price averaged around $10 bucks.
Oh right, so when your FAQ doesn't contain the answer to a question, you just spew bullshit?
How much do you get paid for an answer you pull out of your own ass?
Bullshit? What part of that was bullshit?
I deal in facts, which is why I'm making money, while you guys are crying.
Here is a tip. Buy puts on GLD. It will be the next shoe to drop.
Implied vol is in the low 20s... it doesn't get much cheaper than that.
Oh i can't do that sir, Helicopter Ben will be over my 5 bedroom 4000 square foot McMansion any moment. Then I can finally get back to breakeven on that 700k loan I took out against an asset now worth 450k.
Yeah, he's got a double-tap for you.
Seems your DOUCHERY knows no bounds MEth Man
Ignore facts at your own risk.
Yes, do. You're quite capable in this dept.
How much does the marketing outfit you're contracted with pay on an hourly basis? Reddit had an IAMA yesterday about a former employee doing exactly that.
Is the FAQ you're supposed to cut-and-paste written in word, or is it a text document?
How did you originally get in touch with the marketing company? The guy on reddit said he was hired via craigslist, were you as well?
What facts am ignoring?
That JPM is short (they're not - they closed their prop commodities desk last summer)
or that SLV has no silver (it does - there is an audit and bar list on their website)
Face it. You've been buying on lies. Sell now before it is too late.
Do you get paid on a per-cut-and-paste? Where is your company based?
What sort of office hours do you have to contractually do - or are they flexible? Do you work part time or full?
Escape--its just HP Gary at work again.
Carlos Slim, Eric Sprott, Peter Schiff, Doug Casey, and even old man Buffett before he got scared know a little bit more in my opinion Meth Man -- but you do get an A+ for trying to peddle your snake oil with the fervor you do
Show me some place that I can get COMEX deliverable bars then. I know of two that are available on the face of the entire planet.
Just buy 50k shares of SLV. You can do that in about one minute.
Then have an AP do the exhange for you.
You'll get 50k ounces, all in 1000 oz bars...
You can buy as many as you want. 4.4 million came out of the trust yesterday alone.
Now shut up and stop lying. You can buy as many bars as you want. IN SIZE.
You said they were flooding the market. I want to go buy them on the market. Show me where the market is flooded.
You can't. Because it isn't, except perhaps in your little noodle.
Again, all you need to do is go to an AP and have them exchange your shares for you... but you have to do it in 50k lots.
Or just buy them direct from a bullion bank.
They are there.... you just don't have the size to play in the market.
Keep buying Eagles. I'm sure that will keep the price up.
Edit: Did you miss the part about 15.4mm ounces coming out of SLV?
Hey dumbshit, I don't want 50,000 ounces. Ever think of that? Trading SLV shares for physical, even if such a thing were really possible (I haven't seen or heard of anyone actually DOING that), is not a MARKET. SLV is NOT A MARKET.
I want a few 1000 oz bars, say 5. Where do I get them, smart guy?
There are two on APMEX. None anywhere else on the face of the Earth.
Stop trading small size at APMEX... if you want them they are there-- BUY THEM FROM A BULLION BANK and have them put in allocated storage.
lol, no. SHOW ME A MARKET WHERE 1000 OZ BARS ARE AVAILABLE.
Don't try to fucking tell me that the places that buy and sell real, physical silver aren't a part of the marketplace. Show me a place where they have them that I can go pick them up. I want to go get them next week.
Again, you can buy them from any of a dozen bullion banks, and once you have them in allocated storage you can take delivery.
Or you can buy in SIZE fron the SLV ETF and take delivery.
I can't help it if you can't or don't want to use the channels available to secure Silver in size.
You said the market was FLOODED. Clearly you are wrong, since you apparently can't actually get them on the market.
You're done, boy.
You can buy as MANY as you want...just not in the small size retail channel. Problem is, you only shop at Apmex.
It is kind of like going to the Chevy dealer and trying to buy a Ferrari, you clueless fuck.
Uhh, no, it's like me wanting to buy a house, and you telling me that I have to go to Fannie Mae because they are the only ones who have them.
You said the MARKET WAS FLOODED. Do you know the meaning of ANY of those words?
I'm sorry you didn't listen to me and hedge out your 95% long silver allocation. But there is still time.
Rather than waste your time with me, you should be proactively hedging any further downside.