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The Commoditization Of America
The broader market now tracks every (inverted) move in the DXY. Bernanke has achieved his quest - the rest of the world (and America itself) perceiving the US and its market as a commodity. Is anyone stupid enough to be hiring fundamental analysts these days?
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Just checking to see if I got the math right. Never seen that before; new reader since Taibbi sent me your way.
I don't understand anything you're talking about.
There is a glossary on the top right to clarify anything you may have problems with.
Thanks. Being a little facetious.
Perhaps that's the way it should be. Just keep reading, and it will come along.
Congrats for getting the CAPTCHA problem correct.
People do forget that commodity prices are extremely volatile. That must add a nice motivation for boomers on "sidelines" to invest their 401K remains into an equity market _ NOT.
Big money gets paid to wait in the bond market, until the outlook for the economy improves. Meanwhile, Goldman keeps the computers humming, making equities dance until we all believe again that a crash will not occur and it's safe to enter the water. So, is the next big leg down a signal to the bond market to come on out and play?
EUR/JPY as well...
So you think it's easy making the dollar go down against every other piece of shit currency in the world, except the Yen evidently? All in the service of making people think we are growing? This is a work of staggering genius.
What do you think they talk about at G8 meetings? American Idol? Don't answer that....
Quite interesting actually.
We have the Euro/Gold/Oil all trading almost tick for tick with the US market. The question is "Is anyone looking at the cliff ahead?"
A move in the dollar index below 78.5 (now 78.9) could start a stampede out of the dollar. Gold above 950/960 could do the same for gold. Oil...well that makes no sense, but...
So if the S&P can take out 956 we should have golf flying, the dollar crashing and me sitting here wondering - WTF is going on.
And so you have it all framed. Then the dollar does break under 78.33, and the S&P breaks over 956.23. Everyone gets on the same side - short dollar and long SPY/SSO... and... the whole shebang reverses and goes the other way. Big.
That's my bet.
And, I'm out of all longs except for the very basic small long-term resource holdings. That includes bailing on most of the gold/silver miners. Adding to the puts on certain banks.
SPX just touched over the high, and while the USD didn't break down below that exact level, it was close. Perfect contrary levels here.
We will look back 10 years from now in wonderment.
And that's not a good thing.
The market always goes up over the long term!! It's never been a better time to buy!
Over the long term we are all dead too. People don't live in 100 year cycles, or even 10 year cycles, so stocks for the long run can be a dangerous proposition taken at face value.
you are correct re hiring fundamental analysts. Take a look at the job postings for hedge funds - about 90% of them are for quants
btw, the captcha math questions are hard. How can I model those in Excel?
Wait till ZH starts using word problems instead of simple arithmetic: "A cavalry column 2 miles long is moving at 4 miles per hour. A rider from the back of the column rides to the front at 8mph. How far has the rider gone by the time he gets to the front of the line?"
It all depends on what color their uniforms are.
he had to go 6miles in 45 minutes?
hmm ok maybe 5
4 miles in 0.5 hours
Correct! you win a Zero Hedge thong, available in your choice of black or, oh well, it only comes in black.
i always loved word problems in grade school!
2 miles.
LOL
"by Project Mayhem
on Mon, 07/20/2009 - 11:58
#10308
The market always goes up over the long term!! It's never been a better time to buy!"
And long term we are all dead :(
I was being sarcast-tastic hangon lemme load up my wheelbarrow full of puts, cash, and Krugerrands.
Okay, I'm ready! I think...
oopsie
Fiat currencies intrinsic value = 0
Use that for a captcha
well for fuck's sake, if you are going to start using negative numbers in the captcha then why don't you put a differential equation as the question?? or linear programming problem? are you afraid that goldman sachs is going to point its trading stations towards zh??
We need some alegbra and trig in these Captcha's
I'd say calculus but it's been a few a years and ive gladly blocked out all memory of it
Yeah, it’s all the same trade, is not that funny?
Actually, a flight to dollar would signal the safety trade is in again. Money going out of Emerging Markets, dumping HY bonds, equity and jumping into treasuries mostly.
Gold? Sure, once the deflation trade is over, inflation trade is mighty crowded right now. So in about 2 years?
Today one does not watch SPY, you watch EURUSD, and treasury markets to get a sense of where things are going.
This is the most herculean inflation effort in the HISTORY of the WORLD.
Hey look! The M1/monetary base ratio is back over unity! HOT DAMN!!!
Ha, I said the same thing weeks ago on my site.
I think the math problems should double in complexity each week.
If N0 is the initial zero hedge commenting problem complexity , with a growth rate of k, then the complexity N at time t (in weeks) is represented by
N = N0 * e ^ (k * t)
where k > 0
I still think a pound of coal is heavier than a pound of feathers.
awesome!
At this point, fundamental anaylsts merely change methodolgies in an attempt to justify higher prices. Not exactly a value added service.
And basically with the coorelation of every asset class going to 1 is is just easier to say "more buyers than sellers". Or alternatively "because GS want it that way".
ps - TD,Bess has managed 3 stories all accompanied by Dimons picture. We need a Dimon Sorry accompanied by a photo. Alternatively, we just need bess.
I am sure you know where to find her.
Hey, i am a full on addict of your creation.
Just saying a Bess makes me laugh. And i always enjoy a picture of Jamie.
Commoditization? TD, how dumb are you? At any rate, you're very ignorant of history. This is pure and simple corporatism, right out of the Mussolini playbook.
John, that you again? I dont mind insults, but please at least register.
As long as the insult registers, why should I? Anyway, learn some history. In particular, read Sraffa's comments on Mussolini's fasconomics. Also, a lot of your (and other people's) mathematical models are screwed up as the assault continues on constructivist mathematics.
This is coming from the historians of mathematics, who are uprooting the "paradoxes" and thus the motivation for constructivist math, since...oh I don't know, Aristotle felt he had to "do something" (ooooooh!) to counter Zeno's "paradox."
Sound old and musty? Well then, how about the assault on Cantor and CS as it affects every program you use? What errors is it making for these guys since they're too dumb to know what they're doing?
Anyway, start by reading A. Garciadiego, BERTRAND RUSSELL AND THE ORIGINS OF THE SET-THEORETIC 'PARADOXES.'
Our government friends are way ahead of you on this--and they're using it against you. Think they're not goingto pay attention to Garciadiego, who was at Dibner? And who might you be?
You had me at hello (which I guess is more than you can say for RGE). Keep up the logical discourse.
damnit.. just when I think I'm starting to really get a handle on the the topics and material around here, this dude up and drops this coke-fueled rant. Just spent an hour on wikipedia deciphering wtf he's talking about.
Bertrand Russell was a eugenicist and a Fabian Socialist, you know.
What point are you trying to make? Are you trying to suggest that the powers-that-be have artifically constructed these correlations in an attempt to fool people like TD? If so, I think you overestimate the government. BTW, Russell's attempt to ground mathematics on axiomatic principles was completely thwarted by Godel's incompleteness theorem.
nice move across the bonds today.
Idiocracy has begun to happen.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D99I9O3O0&show_article=1
Fundamental analysis is as accurate as a home price appraiser was 2007.
The direction is up, therefore I get a ruler out on my chart and intersect it with six months out. Question: I am I a quant or a fundy? Tough question, I know.
love your picture printfaster
The correlation are stupendous - you name it spx, eurjpy, crb index, dow transports, gold, oil, whatever - and its all fibonacci orientated. Basically everyones clueless and the herd is king for abt a couple of weeks very sad. I would suggest considering the steepness of the curves fundamental analysts are what you need if you can handle it LOL
is it my screen colors or does this chart actually show a much more correlated VIX/SPX than DXY/SPX?
at first i was annoyed by all of the anonymous posters, but now, it is becoming amusing and a little fun... but, it would still be nice to see everyone's names again...maybe we could have a anony-free day one day a week just for fun?
those congress hicks thought they can threaten ben and get away with it. prob they think they run the country.
I think we need more fundmental analysts. And if anyone is lookign for onw, please let me know.
The fundamentals of the economy are in the toilet. This obviously bodes poorly for commodities & stocks, but for some reason people keep bidding them up anyway.
good finance articles for a slow news day. This market should be much, much much lower.
Personally, I think we need more fundamental analysts. And if anyone is looking to hire one...please let me know.
;-)
How come the units for my captcha is "furlongs per fortnight"? This is getting ridiculous.
take a look at the drudge report on the stimulus waste. Reminds me of Hezbollah. They play a key role in bombing out their neighborhood and then they buy the people off by giving them food, etc. The only difference here is Congress/Obama is the equivalent of Hezbollah and the bought votes are the unsuspecting lemmings too dumb to know any better.
EUR/JPY rolling over...will equities follow it tomorrow???
It always does after the US market closes. Ride it down until around 6am, then switch and go long into the 4pm bell. Flip. (although I prefer the NZD/JPY, bigger moves).
New day, SOS.
I really feel like doing a shot tonight everytime I hear or see another headline stating that the market (or risk trade) advanced today due to 'CIT avoiding bankruptcy.' Or maybe I just don't want to wait for the sleeping pills to kick in.
And... now the Nikkei is 'up today by 1.3% due to CIT avoiding bankruptcy.' No mention of yesterday's holiday close. Good night.