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Commodity Plunge Resumes (Updated)

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The liquidation wave has arrived, as the entire commodities complex, with an emphasis on silver and crude, continues to feel the wrath of a bipolar market which from inflation has suddenly realized that the underlying deflation needs to exhibit itself before the US Central Bank has a justification for more monetization. Elsewhere, the by bar biggest bubble in the world: the dollar short, is blowing up, with the EURUSD on route to post a 300 pip move in a few hours. Basically, the tit for tat repeat of 2010 in this Anno Domini 2011 continues.

And liquidation update:

 

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Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:21 | 1245253 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

Door stoop? I thought the bars were a place to set the bipod of my .308 on.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:56 | 1243568 legal eagle
legal eagle's picture

How does it feel?  How does it feel to be a complete prick and sadist?  Why would you take pleasure in someone else's demise?  I used to wonder where the Nazi's could get so many recruits, you remind me how easy it is.  Your mother should be ashamed.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:07 | 1243629 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

How does it feel to price your life savings in debt coupons, serf?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:17 | 1243690 Treasure Freedom
Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:18 | 1243691 Treasure Freedom
Treasure Freedom's picture

sorry double post.. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:19 | 1243701 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

BLythe is WINNING!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:24 | 1243715 Malachi Constant
Malachi Constant's picture

Oh it really is a torture to see Ag so cheap and to have no free cash to buy it.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:27 | 1243728 drink or die
drink or die's picture

Over 200 junks...is that a new record?  Epic troll.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:47 | 1243827 kalasend
kalasend's picture

LOL. I take that 192 junks mean not being fond of silver is a crime on this site.

Real question is, when in history of mankind have we seen the entire site members getting rich with the same trade? I like silver too, but such thought just creeps me up more than any plausible perspective.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:26 | 1245259 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

LOL maybe when "the entire" site is absolutely a minority on the planet. You do know that bubbles aren't created by the minority right? 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:53 | 1243841 Janice
Janice's picture

I'm the proud owner of Junk #219.  I purchased physical silver at $16.65.  I haven't lost a dime.  And if I do, so what?  With the increase in food, gas & other daily necessities, my savings would have  generated 1.5% interest at the bank, for net loss of about 6.5% annually during the same time period. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 14:28 | 1243870 Hulk
Hulk's picture

junking you Hamy for the record, 220!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 13:00 | 1243914 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

HamyWanker,

You might want to read a book titled "How To Win Friends and Influence People."

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 13:02 | 1243927 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

BLythe is WINNING!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 13:05 | 1243930 euryale
euryale's picture

Epic Troll! First comment, cut right to the chase, some 227 junks - i am impressed...

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 13:17 | 1243991 lawrence1
lawrence1's picture

My silver investments are up over 250% including this present drop, you short sighted asshore.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 13:18 | 1243993 britinbe
britinbe's picture

still up considerably from the price I paid.  Tell us how you will when your 401K goes down the shitter

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 13:42 | 1244079 everycentometal
everycentometal's picture

THIS SITE IS NOW OFFICIALLY SILVERHEDGE. NOBODY HERE COMMENTS ON ANY OTHER ARTICLES HERE UNLESS IT IS TIED TO SILVER, THIS IS BECOMING NOTHING MORE THAN A PENNY STOCK BLOG. ANYBODY AGAINST SILVER IS A TROLL AND ANYBODY FOR SILVER IS AN IDIOT, IT'S JUST CHILDISH. I LOOKED FORWARD EVERY MORNING TO READING TYLERS POSTS TO GET A NON-BIASED OPINION ON FINANCIAL MATTERS AND TO READ OTHERS OPINIONS. IT IS NOW NOTHING MORE THAN A METAL PUMPING AND BASHING FORUM. IS SILVERHEDGE COPYWRITED YET?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 13:56 | 1244130 theprofromdover
theprofromdover's picture

Fair question

(227 junks? come on you muppets; he has a right to at least try and gloat in the short-term)

-doubling down, sonny!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 14:06 | 1244175 Unholy Dalliance
Unholy Dalliance's picture

Hamy: obviously you're new to this trolling lark otherwise you wouldn't have uttered such a ludicrously inane, asinine comment!

 

Here's a little lesson for you concerning the ownership of silver. It's not the FRN value that's important, it's the number of ounces you own - own outright, as in: it's your property, free of all liens.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 14:10 | 1244180 jomama
jomama's picture

there is no mean price for silver.  and the fundamentals haven't changed.  so what exactly am i missing?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 14:20 | 1244220 TheBillMan
TheBillMan's picture

Well, if you have your money in the paper market, you've lost your shirt.  Physical is still holding up quite nicely.  Try going to apmex.com and buying physical at spot.  No offense to you, but physical is running at a 20% premium over spot. 

Funny story, funny for me anyway.  Got a friend who is a bullion dealer.  He got a call from some NY shmuck recently looking to take some of his physical off his hands.  Told him to F*** himself.  The rumor is, according to the Silver Bears, is that all that is in the COMEX vault is crickets.  The takedown of the silver paper market is nothing more than a desperate attempt to shake out the weaker hands.  I just wonder how many naked shorts JPM had to sell into the market to make it happen.  LMFAO

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 14:26 | 1244260 Geithners SMARM...
Geithners SMARMY Face's picture

It feels great when your life savings is still up 110% since 2008.  I sleep very well at night.  :)

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 15:08 | 1244487 Banjo
Banjo's picture

HammyWanger: Feels like I'm Rocky in round two or three.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 15:12 | 1244501 Exposer of Inte...
Exposer of Internet Shills's picture

LOL, I haven't sold one ounce.  Even if I had it would be better to lose 25% of a life savings than 90-100% which paper holders WILL

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 15:21 | 1244546 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

Wow, 278 junks.  Gotta be some kind of record.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:21 | 1245245 russki standart
russki standart's picture

Wow! 294 junks! I am impressed. Must be close to a ZH record.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:19 | 1245246 russki standart
russki standart's picture

Wow! 294 junks! I am impressed. Must be close to a ZH record.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:41 | 1243141 dojiman
dojiman's picture

What would happen if the PM miners stopped shipping the physical to the comex, and did this for a month or two.

 

 

 

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:46 | 1243178 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

They are gleefully shipping because that backwardation was miners rushing to lock in prices.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:45 | 1243184 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

They are gleefully shipping because that backwardation was miners rushing to lock in prices.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:39 | 1243142 weltvermesser
weltvermesser's picture

can we get a bailout now? SARP - Silver Asset Relieve Programm 

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:49 | 1243217 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Thanks for the laugh :)

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:39 | 1243145 somethingelse
Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:41 | 1243147 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

$49 by Friday; $60 by next week.

Just watch fools. There is no silver anywhere on planet Earth, I dare you to find it.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:44 | 1243160 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Are you serious?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:44 | 1243163 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Funny how you keep holding on to calls from the previous paradigm when we have clearly entered a new one, as predicted.

Those holding physical are doing fine.  You can't seem to get that through your thick skull.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:49 | 1243177 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Acutally I predicted it. You were predicting $49 by Friday and $60 for next week. Anyone following this dialogue knows I was right and you were full of shit.

You're a fucking idiot and like I said PRICE is the final arbiter and what it's saying is you're fucking wrong shit for brains.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:47 | 1243200 spartan117
spartan117's picture

Did tsmosley take your lunch money in grammar school  or something?  Good lord.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:17 | 1243335 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Spartan made me laugh. Maybe we need to give bob-da-baloney a wedgie.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:19 | 1243365 wirtschaftswunder
wirtschaftswunder's picture

tsmosley is mostly wrong and he posts it too often

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:54 | 1243227 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Im holding just fine from the mid teens...let the paper silver BS games be played out. What are you going to put your wealth into, equities? Good luck!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:57 | 1243261 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Physical price is the final arbiter, not paper price.

Physical price is rapidly diverging from the paper price.  Any company that doesn't raise their premiums is going to see their inventory depleted rapidly.

And I did predict this as the action that would precede a COMEX default.  Enjoy your worthless paper till then.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:07 | 1243289 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

$36.28

You predicted $0 as comex defaults; $49 by Friday and $60 for next week.

Price. It's the final arbiter.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:13 | 1243329 wirtschaftswunder
wirtschaftswunder's picture

He's a fool

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:26 | 1243422 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I predicted infinite volatility with a trend towards zero.  It will hit zero when the COMEX defaults.

The other predictions are out due to 2837465 margin hikes that have happened since that time, and the change from mid game to end game for the COMEX collapse.

Those holding physical are doing fine, and will continue to do fine.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:35 | 1243450 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

So...from $60 next week to "a trendline toward $0" in what 4 days?

HAHAHAHAHA

Time to buy!!!! Short term buy in right here baby, I'm going for it.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:43 | 1243481 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You don't have the capacity for reason.  You are just a gibbering ape.

Too bad.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:57 | 1243575 trav7777
trav7777's picture

at least he doesn't go out on a limb and forecast shit like $49 by the end of this week or that Tokyo everyone would be dead or evacuated in a week (by April 2).

then after falling flat on your face, you try to pretend that you never said it or that the "paradiggum has changed."

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:10 | 1243659 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I love how you exclude the conditions of all of my calls.

Tokyo would be dead or evacuated if water service was not restored, because you need water to live, moron.  $49 was if nothing else happened.  872 margin hikes later, here we are, at the foot of Mt. COMEXcollapse.

I predicted the paradigm change in FEBRUARY.

But you refuse to acknowledge that, because it hurts your case for vendetta.

You are weak and stupid.  A sorry human being.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:44 | 1243825 wirtschaftswunder
wirtschaftswunder's picture

Tyler why is this talking piece of feces aloowed to post?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:52 | 1243845 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I wonder if you are long juan silver with a new name?

Tyler doesn't ban people for what they think.  He does ban people for making threats and posting personal information on other users without their consent.

Might I suggest you head back to Stormfront if you want to ban people who disagree with you so badly?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:24 | 1243407 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Ya. And fdic is really insured. And jp morgan is fully hedged. Bullshit backing bullshit. Massive destruction in may. The mayday's have been sent.

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:50 | 1243530 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Funny how you keep holding on to calls from the previous paradigm when we have clearly entered a new one, as predicted

GFD you are so cliff claven...and yes I intentionally misspell it bc "clavEn" is like "craven," which is what you are as well.

Tmosely- "forget my call of 49 by EOW and 60 next week, we are in a NEW PARADIGGUM"

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:13 | 1243667 tmosley
tmosley's picture

 

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 08:35 | tmosley (Total Score:1)

The paper price is fake.  The sooner it breaks down toward zero (among infinite volatility), the sooner the current system ends due to metal default, and "gold bugs" take over the financial system as physical premiums head toward infinite.

 

You are so weak and stupid, you have to tell half truths to pursue your vendetta.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:38 | 1243792 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Sorry trav but wtf is your problem? Honestly you think buying physical silver is a bad idea or something? Right now is a great time to get in the game, and last time I checked Tmosely wasn't telling people to get leveraged to the gills and buy up silver contracts. 

So what is your call king douche, buy silver at a 25% discount or keeping slinging shit at people who are bullish on PM's. 

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:51 | 1243865 tmosley
tmosley's picture

He just has a personal vendetta against me, and he is generally pissed because his end of the world peak oil play is going badly, so he feels the need to try to tear down the one guy who so succinctly destroyed all of his dumb peak oil theories (specifically that this crisis was caused by peak oil).

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 13:24 | 1244006 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Personally I think peak oil is a possibility, I would at least humor the idea tmosley, its not like a comex default is any easier for people to swallow. Regardless if their is "peak" oil I think we are getting close to peak production given that Obama has his war on speculators is causing price fixing.

I would just prefer Trav not be so much of a dick. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 13:31 | 1244040 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Peak oil will happen, just like peak charcoal and peak whale oil happened.  It will NOT cause a "permanent depression" as Trav claims.  There is plenty of energy out there.  You just have to harvest it.  Whether than means using new ionic liquids to extract oil from tar sands for extremely low energy input, or mass produced graphene based solar panels, or some other thing that no-one has thought of yet, new energy sources will be found and employed.  Humans are as dumb as Trav wants them to be.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 14:05 | 1244172 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

agreed

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 14:30 | 1244270 ShittyLipsMcCra...
ShittyLipsMcCrapStain's picture

Algae biatch!!

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:40 | 1243153 pacu44
pacu44's picture

This is just a preview to the dollar in the coming months, prepare your answer.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:01 | 1243281 spartan117
spartan117's picture

I hope so.  I have FRNs that I want to use up.  I hope it's twice as bad as 2008.  I would like to buy a Prius for 50% off.  And I would love to see housing collapse, taking us to 1990 levels.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:42 | 1243156 Mercury
Mercury's picture

That white field on the multi security analysis screen is just plain sexy.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:46 | 1243176 NotAllowed
NotAllowed's picture

Reminds me of the game "Dig Dug" Circa early 90's

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:49 | 1243218 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Yeah, beware of falling rocks!

I loved that game.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:41 | 1243161 Darth Silver
Darth Silver's picture

you call yourself a silver investor levine?  you see this silver watch?  this silver watch is worth more than your car!

 

you know what it takes to hold physical in this market?  Silver Brass Balls!

 

get focused and stay the course.  Do Not Sell Your Physical.  DTFM, their vaults are dry.  The end surge is coming.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:45 | 1243168 masterwoo
masterwoo's picture

fuking soros trigging the sell off

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:43 | 1243169 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

My $5.18 purchase of silver got junked into oblivion.....in about 30 seconds.

 

.....you should have just called me on the proof offer.

 

The boyz are running scared now.

 

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:45 | 1243185 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

Copper is also down 3.5% thus far on the session, and briefly fell below $4. So much for the "investors" accumulating those "Troy Pound .999 Polished Copper Ingots" on eBay.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:49 | 1243197 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

....also getting harder to get gold and silver on Ebay as well.

 

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:48 | 1243189 chaunceyG
chaunceyG's picture

Wow where are all the BTFDs today?  I hear physical is still bid on ebay if that helps.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:49 | 1243213 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Yeah....that 100 mil stuff is flying out the door.

 

 

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:55 | 1243230 razorthin
razorthin's picture

BTFD.  There you go.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:49 | 1243193 PingaYourFace
PingaYourFace's picture

Thanks for the discount opportunity, I'm buying all the way down.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:51 | 1243207 OliverTwist
OliverTwist's picture

Not really fitting here but .... anybody has heard something from Ted Butler recently?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:52 | 1243232 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

After this week, I assure you that nobody will be listening to Ted Butler ever again.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:52 | 1243215 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

"Peak Oil" crowd discredited once again.

Looking forward to gasoline going down to $3 again.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:02 | 1243271 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Nope peak oil is there but on top of it we have commodity speculation...

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:05 | 1243301 css1971
css1971's picture

Actually... This is almost exactly what the Peak Oil crowd have been predicting for the last 5 years. Being one of them, I'm making an absolute killing. Been cash for a week or so now (gave up on platinum with small loss, it was a dumb idea).

BTFD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Having said that, i'm not sure this is the big one. We'll see how far it falls.

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:19 | 1243361 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

I'm all over the oil trade too. Looks like a fantastic opportunity.  Peak oil is here, OPEC does not have the ability to increase production, and the arctic is looking like it's becoming off-limits. When the US dollar gets slammed again - oil will inevitably rise too.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:16 | 1243358 docj
docj's picture

$3? Doubt it.

Gas will certainly fall as the USD goes through it's (likely) last ever rally but we'll see $6 gas in my neck of the woods (suburban Boston) long before we ever see $3 gas.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:50 | 1243521 Hushups
Hushups's picture

There is a lot more to 'peak oil' than the cost of gasoline.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:08 | 1243648 trav7777
trav7777's picture

?  Production is down.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:15 | 1243683 tmosley
tmosley's picture

/\ <--peak

---- <--plateau 

A kindergardener could tell you this.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:58 | 1243886 Seer
Seer's picture

Since Peak Oil is about production, not price, then maybe it would be wiser to provide production data, don't you think?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:55 | 1243888 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Yeh, but we were discredited due to the "big oil leak" in the gulf.

Remember? 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:52 | 1243216 DK Delta
DK Delta's picture

Lovely! I've been waiting for this liquidation for months. Hallelujah! 

 

http://coveringdelta.wordpress.com/2011/05/05/liquidation-in-commodities...

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:22 | 1243383 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

It's all texas hedges. Shorts covering more shorts.

Get it while you can.

Ka BOOM just shouted it's biggest ka ever.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:51 | 1243226 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Perma-gloomers probably kicking themselves for not buying retail stocks like ROST, instead of clutching on to the predictions of cartoon characters like "Alf"...

LOL.....

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:01 | 1243241 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'ROST' wow thats a new one from you, what did you suddenly notice another obscure stock thats up? Hows yer crAAPL doin today MomoFader? Probably wont be seeing a chart of that Im guessing. How much does Tyler pay you to do your little perma unicorn dew enema gig here anyway?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:01 | 1243283 Kina
Kina's picture

still a child

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 13:59 | 1244126 akak
akak's picture

Tyler,

How does RobotShithead's constant antagonism, and cowardly refusal to EVER engage anyone who rightly challenges his shallow, disingenuously short-term-focused crap, NOT constitute trolling?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 14:04 | 1244161 tmosley
tmosley's picture

To his credit, he DID engage me.  I wish I had taken him up on his offer now, as premiums on eagles have gone through the roof.  I didn't expect that to happen.  I thought all premiums on physical metal would rise more or less in conjunction.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 14:08 | 1244181 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Yeah US eagles and Maples are always in high demand. Wish I bought eagles when premium on them was only a buck.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 14:16 | 1244204 akak
akak's picture

Wow, you mean SOMEBODY here actually had a back-and-forth exchange with RobotLemming?  Really?  I must have missed that historic and certainly unique event!

Regardless, I still consider him nothing but a troll here --- his participation here is limited to dropping antagonistic shitbombs on the doorstep while he runs away and smirks at the results, never having the backbone to defend or argue his points, pathetically shallow and short-term as they are.  A total waste of space.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:55 | 1243236 LONGdongSLV
LONGdongSLV's picture

I'm beginning to think this is all a rigged game.  Everyone was telling me about how the fundamentals of silver justified those high prices but now it's down 25% in a couple of days?  And now the dollar is higher?  I dunno, I guess I'm just another sap that bought all the way up and is now in the red (at least I have some lower lots but still).  I'm trying to decide, do I double down or just take my losses and get out.  It's like Soros and all these hedge fund guys like Tepper just talked everything up and then sold out to suckers like us.  I have the feeling it's got a long ways to go as everyone rushes to the door or gets margined out.  Ugh.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:58 | 1243254 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Lets talk about the other REALLY BIG players, the dollar shorts where the actual bubble was....how are they doin today? This is all just a systematic raping of everyone who dares step up to the table in the mafia rigged casino. Avg Jow Schmoe think they can beat those who rigged the machine?

LULZ

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:21 | 1243390 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

SheepDog, I can't believe anyone junked you for that perfectly rational, honest-to-goodness comment. The markets are all rigged for and by the big boyz, and it's multiple gang rape on many fronts.

Can't wait until they crash the S&P back to 1200 or the Dow below 10,000 again. I'd say a massive sell-off commences sometime this summer when most of the schnooks and schmucks will be at the beach tanning their fat bellies and too busy chillin' to do any buyin', just sayin'.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 13:17 | 1243975 Fake Jim Quinn
Fake Jim Quinn's picture

Once the hedge funds got into SLV, with the HFT algos, there was going to be volitility in silver. I think Martenson was right initially until he withdrew his forecast, i.e. falling commodities when QEII drops, with resumptions when things get ugly and Benny + Inkjets will be "begged" to provide liquidity. Enjoy the fall for a bit and keep your powder dry. The initial debasing premise is not over.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:10 | 1243328 Crack-up Boom
Crack-up Boom's picture

Gotta look at the bigger picture.  Google "FOFOA" and start reading (though you might wish you'd bought gold).  Print posts and reread. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 14:15 | 1244203 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

What did you buy into. Most of us hold physical, depending on what your holding should determine your actions.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:01 | 1243256 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Keep your trigger fingers itchy.

While i suspect a slow grind down in risk assets until fall, this could be a brief contractionary scare ( probably shouldnt say deflationary).

Dollar up gold down thru summer, unless black swan surprises us. Stocks down, commodities down.

Always look for evidence to disprove your beliefs if you believe in logic. Never look for confirmatory evidence. It is illogical to do so.

Bottom resistance or " support" for the dollar will hold for now on the dxy.

Tea party takes an axe to government expenditures. We save millenial children from predatory boomers such as bicycle repairman and the yoke of debt bondage.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:15 | 1243355 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

Yep, a brief intermission taking down assets, for the upcoming QE3 third act.  Will it be the final act?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:56 | 1243257 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Those big boys when they get their sights focused they can take any commodity for a ride when/where they like; as they know that high volatility is the big man's best friend and small man's worst enemy. The latter is tied up in knots, or obliged to retrench in one specific niche and gets set up as sitting duck...when they're good and ready, like crazy horse and sitting bull, and then its little big horn time...I think Gen Custer was a silver bug in his own golden haired way. Keep your powder dry and hope sitting bull gets running dysentery, goes muddy bum crazy like a male horse in spring dance fever.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:57 | 1243259 Kina
Kina's picture

I have some physical here if JPM is looking for it cost me $20 but for them, how about spot plus $25.

 

Hope more a standing for delivery.

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/lbma-closes-public-access-key-bullion-b...

 

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:58 | 1243265 riley martini
riley martini's picture

   Every year the sell off is in April-May well 8 out of 10 years . The first usefull information I learned from commodity traders.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 13:32 | 1244043 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

shhhh! let the dipshits sell

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:01 | 1243279 JailBank
JailBank's picture

Well dude since we all bougth at much lower prices I don't feel a thing. I played the SLV to counter my physical silver holdings all the way to $46, and made a ton and now have physical silver I bought in the $20s and all the cash I made playing paper up. How does it feel to miss out on huge gains?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:31 | 1243449 graneros
graneros's picture

You did good.  All my physical silver I got  back in the early 90's for $5.  I'll not be letting go of that.  I'll be doing the paper thing here shortly.  Gonna hold on for another week or so.  I can't see it going lower than $30 and that's when I think I'll jump in. Silver will be heading back up shortly and I don't plan on missing out.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:03 | 1243280 z123
z123's picture

stop dreaming about more QE, the deflation wave started and no one can stop it, Iäm 100% cash

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:06 | 1243291 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Could be! But remember deflation is the Bernanks worst nightmare so expect 'remedies' to be promptly carried out very quick.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:09 | 1243310 z123
z123's picture

deflation will end the FED and bernarke all together and through them into the history garbage can

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:25 | 1243397 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Bernanke is not in this game alone as the currency war rages and China makes its voice heard, both in EU/euro bond play and in USD massive sale. He has to watch all these balls in the air and still try and hold WS assets on a roll...what a mad house.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:06 | 1243294 spartan117
spartan117's picture

What you gonna do with those FRNs when deflation whacks the Treasury's ability to fund ongoing liabilities?  Deflation = lowered tax receipts = higher deficit spending = Treasury default = 20 on the DXY.  What then?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:09 | 1243309 Kina
Kina's picture

85% AUD 15% PM - but will make that 20% shortly.

 

QE is on its way. No way the cant keep printing, politicians look for the easy path.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:17 | 1243370 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

printing is the path of least resistance.  They will do it until they can't do it any longer.   that is longer than we think, of course, with many roller coaster hiccups along the way.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:04 | 1243285 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

It's a set up, just BTFD.!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:08 | 1243305 No Bid
No Bid's picture

The Fed always wins.  That said, there's a bounce in here somewhere.  But $50 silver is a myth unless QE3 happens.  "Oh it's totes happens!!!1" Yeah, not so sure.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:08 | 1243306 Cdad
Cdad's picture

You know, this plunge like all plunges is once again the handiwork of criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers.  

We know the market where people actually buy and sell silver is tight [oil is quite the opposite].  And yet the collapse is engineered by bankers who are perpetually build things that cause these extremes.  Just check and overlay your AGQ and your ZSL charts and you get the drift.

The supposed keepers of capital perpetually destroy capital, and yet constantly portray themselves as geniuses.  

And as they have engineered this destruction, so too is destruction about to commence in retail stocks that are ballooning based on an algorithm that drives them inversely to commodity prices even though, of course, their business does not respond in kind or in that sort of time frame.

We must be right on the edge of it now, the next flash crash, because even the action between the index EFTs and stocks is clearly broken today.  A complete liquidation arbitrage trade is going haywire today.  

Everything I am seeing is totally FUBAR!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:14 | 1243331 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

People actually acting as if its all based upon economic technicals, suply demand and P/E's? Too funny, its all based upon the puppet masters manipulators while the peasantry acts as if theyre calling the odds in the rigged casino. In the end, all players will lose you cant beat the rigged house.

Definitely on the edge of the next collapse and panic event, where most people will be separated from their money as the banksters step in with another 'We know this will hurt, but we're saving you' plan.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:29 | 1243438 ZapBranigan
ZapBranigan's picture

There is now way, way too much evidence to prevent a CFTC investigation.  People, be really, really pissed if the CFTC doesn't at least take a close look at this. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:42 | 1243478 Quintus
Quintus's picture

The CFTC would not act if you presented them with a confession signed by the guilty parties.  They are 100% bought and paid for.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:54 | 1243552 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Again, another holdout for hope that someone will investigate. Nope, not gonna happen, the corrupt will not investigate those who pay them.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 21:03 | 1249955 ZapBranigan
ZapBranigan's picture

I'm pretty much just speaking to those CFTC GS-13/14 direct-hires that read this board. (in an indirect way)

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:32 | 1243440 Cdad
Cdad's picture

This is no ordinary trading day, Dog.  Nope.  There is tremendous churn and divergences between the big ETFs and the underlying issues.  I have not seen a day like this in quite awhile.  

But in this total FUBAR'd market, I cannot tell just now if the S&P is going to magically print 1300...or 1400.  

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:13 | 1243673 chaunceyG
chaunceyG's picture

u are right, margin calls equities '29, oil '08, silver '11 means house wins.  Trick is to keep feeding you free drinks so you stay at the table.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:07 | 1243308 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Tech stocks and airlines are going vertical, in celebration of the collapse in crude oil

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:12 | 1243339 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

How much does Tyler your brother in law pay you for this stupid act of yours?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 13:46 | 1244083 akak
akak's picture

It is insulting to the intellect to even attempt to respond to this idiotic, short-sighted, cowardly piece of filth anymore --- he just drops shitbombs here and then runs away.

Robot, have some balls and respond to us NOW, or get the fuck off this forum for good.  Or just go hang yourself and die already --- either option works for me just as well as the other.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 14:43 | 1244334 jomama
jomama's picture

whoa bro... chill...

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:24 | 1243364 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

Were techs and airlines spared in Q3 '08? Collapse often spreads to other sectors...deflation is an ugly bitch.

The last "big one" involved a few TBTF banks and U.S. real estate. This one, now unfolding, involves China, PIIGS, BRICS, multinational TBTF banks, and the economies of 50 states.

Containment is not an option.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:37 | 1243785 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

All the tits are out today....Hammy, Robot - where's Meth man to complete the set?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:16 | 1243352 uhb
uhb's picture

Hello Hamy,

if you bought silver at 5$ and gold at 900$, no sweat :)))))

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:20 | 1243371 mspgrandi
mspgrandi's picture

Today (actually the last month ) price movements certify and document one thing only!

 

F*cking forget fundamentals. Markets (and in particular commodity) are driven by one and one thing only.

 

Speculation

 

we keep listening about hundreds of news stories about the economy, the debt etc. etc. when the only thing that seem to matter is how the HFT computers are positioned. Nothing has changed in teh World from yesterady. yer someone has finally decided to pull the plug on EUR/USD and as consequence everything else is coming down

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:20 | 1243372 mspgrandi
mspgrandi's picture

Today (actually the last month ) price movements certify and document one thing only!

 

F*cking forget fundamentals. Markets (and in particular commodity) are driven by one and one thing only.

 

Speculation

 

we keep listening about hundreds of news stories about the economy, the debt etc. etc. when the only thing that seem to matter is how the HFT computers are positioned. Nothing has changed in teh World from yesterady. yer someone has finally decided to pull the plug on EUR/USD and as consequence everything else is coming down

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:21 | 1243375 cuttlefish
cuttlefish's picture

Yea my normalcy bias was hitting pretty hard after looking at the charts this morning but I soon realized the following:

-          I got into this game at $8 to $17 dollars and ounce

-          The dollar index is plunging

-          Portugal is bankrupt!

-          Spain is on the close to bankrupt!

-          Middle east is on fire

-          California and a few other states are Close to toast

-          Deflation is the worst thing that can ever happen to a fiat currency welcome QE3 and this is simply the market reaction to the end of QE2.

So I will lap up my short term losses and stick to the plan..

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:18 | 1243376 mspgrandi
mspgrandi's picture

wow.. posted it 3 times . sorry chaps

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:21 | 1243377 wang
wang's picture

this is the Osama rally  - crude down - US will be  out of Afghan and Iraq - Arab spring  - US defense spending will head down - WTI $85 here we come

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:18 | 1243379 jadencore
jadencore's picture

IMHO, seems like all the large buyers are waiting to see how low it falls before loading up. Though I don't think they'll have any luck taking deliveries.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:19 | 1243382 east paris trader
east paris trader's picture

You're watching death -- not of gold or silver, but Comex.   An exchange requires confidence.   After this orchestrated murder of the commodity complex, what's next?  Equities are fixed and controlled.  Commodities.. ditto.   Guess what Bond market?  You're next.  The Fed/Bankster mob are salting their own fields.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:22 | 1243384 fonestar
fonestar's picture

When did I loose 25% of my life savings moron?  Paper silver tools lost 25% of their phony paper silver.  I just counted and all of my ounces are still there..

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:21 | 1243389 Mec-sick-o
Mec-sick-o's picture

Wow, everyone junked?!

Is today cleaning lady day?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:25 | 1243400 I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

For fuck's sake, anyone in physical that is getting concerned - just check eBay and Craigslist. As the paper silver takes a nosedive under 37$, physical American Eagles are still selling at a pubic hair under 50$. Let Kitco show that silver costs 1$ by the end of the day, won't loose a bit of sleep over it, with the Precious keeping me warm.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:58 | 1243559 Slim
Slim's picture

While it should go without saying, expecting efficient and dynamic market pricing on ebay and craigslist is a bit much.  Comic books and toy collectibles are a different story but you need to look where there is substantial volume, major players, and money moving to verify pricing for large markets. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:02 | 1243609 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Apmex prices over spot actuall have gone up, but not excessively.  ...Yet.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:25 | 1243401 web bot
web bot's picture

This is the handywork of the Fed.

They know that commodity prices and PMs were skyrocketing due to QE funds being channelled into the markets... The ChairSatan speaks and says that inflation is "transitory"... so all of a sudden the CME and most other stooges follow and increase margins on silver... this plus sell in May and some weak earnings and the end of QE3 takes away the discussion on inflation.

They know the chatter and are intervening.

For those worried about interest rates increasing, the weapon of choice they will use is increasing interest rates for accounts of major institutions that have QE dollars. This way, the monetary impact of interest rates on consumers is mute.

Now... the only question is what comes next... to start the beginning of Act 2 for Silver to $250? Webbot technology Asymmetrical Language Trending Analysis has been predicting hyperinflation, silver above $250 and death of the US dollar for the last 10 years in the language meme. Don't think this is over for PMs...

Note: Not investment advice and I'm not associated with the web bot group.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:49 | 1243515 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

"This is the handywork of the Fed."

No, just the markets clearing away some speculative bullshit. You will know it when the Fed decides to drain the swamp.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWmFeokCHik

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:23 | 1243403 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Gold and silver bugs must be kicking themselves for not diversifying.  Notice how AXP is les than 1% off its 52-week highs, while many junior gold stocks have been destroyed 30% - 50% in 2011 already.

Not to mention the 50% haircut in that levered silver ETF.

LOL....

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:30 | 1243444 r101958
r101958's picture

Still have my physical that I bought when it was cheap. So, gloat to yourself. I am sure, that in the end, your paper ponzi bets will come out smelling like roses.

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