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Comparison Of North And South Korea's Military Capabilities

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Following last night's escalation in hostilities between the two Koreas in what was the worst peacetime incident in over 5 years, the AP has compiled a visual summary of not only the events that transpired, and the generations of conflict built up between the two countries that have led us to the current predicament, but most importantly, a comparison of the military strengths of the two countries. A most useful resource for all those who would like to know if the over/under on either country winning the next shelling incident is on the money.

Full interactive chart below.

 

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Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:15 | 751143 litoralkey
litoralkey's picture

http://www.nkeconwatch.com/north-korea-uncovered-google-earth/

 

North Korea Uncovered – (Google Earth)

The most authoritative map of North Korea on Google Earth
Version 18: June 25, 2009

 

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:18 | 751148 Black Friday
Black Friday's picture

Cool, thanks for this!

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:27 | 751166 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Waterslide next to residence. AHAHAHA!!!

After he is done starving his civil servants he goes to the waterpark.  Nixon was a bowler, Obama shoots rock, Kim Jung Il does the slip and slide.

http://www.nkeconwatch.com/nk-uploads/elite1.JPG

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:35 | 751199 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Has some young enterprising reporter asked former president Carter's opinion of North Korea's meteoric rise in nuclear arms capabilities over the last couple decades?

I thought not ;-) 

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:40 | 751211 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

The South Park guys had a more realistic take on their leader in Team America (fuck yeah!) than Carter did.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:53 | 751241 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Have not seen it...I'll look it up.

I seem to recall Carter doing a "peace in our time" campaign in which he (unofficially) opened up North Korea's nuke program...for peaceful purposes of course ;-)

Binging Team America now...LOL.

 

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:37 | 751351 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

maybe you're thinking of mister rumsfeld, who sold them two nuke plants:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2003/may/09/nuclear.northkorea

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 00:13 | 751445 Jager06
Jager06's picture

Your a tool. I was in the room when Sec State Albright was ordered by Clinton to hand over the light water nukes and a gazillion barrels of oil to support the North until the nuke plants were operational. Capitulation over Capitalism. Hmmm....I think I remember former SecDef Perry in the room as well.

This round of saber rattling will get them whatever they want from Obummer, who has no logical plans for dealing with a challenge to his "God of all things" status. He can't even handle a heckler during his teleprompter reading sessions.

 

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 02:50 | 751745 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

could it be there is toolhood to spare?  looks to me like a "bipartisan" approach got us to where we are.  forty plus years with an actually armed to the teeth ussr and we can't wait a few more to watch a dead broke, truly puny failed state completely fail?  possibly not.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 07:35 | 751892 Slartibartfast
Slartibartfast's picture

Ain't hindsight beautiful?

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 09:38 | 752011 mrgneiss
mrgneiss's picture

I don't think a Gorbachev is going to show up in North Korea anytime soon.  We let Afganistan fail spectacularly, and look what happened.  They are exporting ballistic and nuke technology to all our enemies, and all it would take it is one or two EMP's and game over America.  And I'm not partisan, I'm Canadian. 

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 08:32 | 751929 alpha60
alpha60's picture

did she already have the albright group cards printed up, with a price list for 'strategic support' of your business.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 15:11 | 753106 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

True, but had Rumsfeld been a true patriot -- which that traitor never was -- he would have resigned his highly remunerative directorship on ABB after those sales to North Korea.

Otherwise, point taken.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 07:49 | 751899 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

The vessels and any number of other parts are sitting in a warehouse in tax-free New Hampshire. - Ned

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 01:53 | 751664 Anonymouse
Anonymouse's picture

Meant to post this here

 

I believe this is the clip you want.  2nd best in the whole movie, right after the one following the line "I promise I will never die"

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xh_9QhRzJEs

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 03:56 | 751803 i-dog
i-dog's picture

This is my favourite ... with Hans Brix: "Herro, Hans. Rice to see you again".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSXNJMP8ir4

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 06:22 | 751862 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Thanks Anonymouse.

The poor despotic psycho does seem lonely...maybe he can order his people to hold a parade in his honor to boost his spirits ;-) 

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 01:21 | 751603 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

What, no private Pr0n theater?  How disappointing! :>D

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:34 | 751194 litoralkey
litoralkey's picture

Got another resource by GoogleEarth community users

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?128528-Bluffer-s-gui...

Bluffer's guide: Fortress North Korea

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:14 | 751299 Thanatos
Thanatos's picture

Here is a great resource on all things Military:

http://www.fas.org/index.html

Extensive sections on Korea(s)

 

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 14:35 | 752983 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

U.S.S. George Washington Carrier Group leaves Japan bound for Korea.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0cZI9rLSS4

 

 

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 20:50 | 756634 The PolyCapitalist
The PolyCapitalist's picture

Hopefully it includes artillery, which is missing from the AP's interactive military map.

Seoul is very close to the DMZ and well within range N. Korea's massive artillery capability.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 11:57 | 752454 zevulon
zevulon's picture

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:17 | 751146 Black Friday
Black Friday's picture

How they get such accurate numbers on a country that I can't even find on google street view. If google doesn't know, who does? :O

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:21 | 751160 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

They can't get accurate numbers. Kind of reminds me of Saddam's zillion man army. All ran away when the shit hit the fan.

Now that the saber rattling effect has died down, Asia is bright green and futures here are running much higher. We're setting up for a low volume rally tomorrow.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 01:15 | 751592 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Saber rattling...  Over 200 shells were exchanged, you twat.

And Asia is up 0.5%.  What was it down yesterday, twat?

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 02:55 | 751752 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

200 shells is saber rattling.  stock markets go down for many reasons and these exchanges have quite a few of them.  why is twat a bad thing?  certainly got a lot of junks though.  insufficiently high blood lust?

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 08:46 | 751938 Tortfeasor
Tortfeasor's picture

5 points on the futures...moonshot!

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:18 | 751150 Fraud-Esq
Fraud-Esq's picture

They say...

Pyongyang, November 23 (KCNA) -- The Supreme Command of the Korean People's Army Tuesday released the following communique: 
  The south Korean puppet group perpetrated such reckless military provocation as firing dozens of shells inside the territorial waters of the DPRK side around Yonphyong Islet in the West Sea of Korea from 13:00 on Nov. 23 despite the repeated warnings of the DPRK while staging the war maneuvers for a war of aggression on it codenamed Hoguk, escalating the tension on the Korean Peninsula.
  The above-said military provocation is part of its sinister attempt to defend the brigandish "northern limit line," while frequently infiltrating its naval warships into the territorial waters of the DPRK side under the pretext of "intercepting fishing boats."
  The revolutionary armed forces of the DPRK standing guard over the inviolable territorial waters of the country took such decisive military step as reacting to the military provocation of the puppet group with a prompt powerful physical strike.
  It is a traditional mode of counter-action of the army of the DPRK to counter the firing of the provocateurs with merciless strikes. 
  Should the south Korean puppet group dare intrude into the territorial waters of the DPRK even 0.001 mm, the revolutionary armed forces of the DPRK will unhesitatingly continue taking merciless military counter-actions against it.
  It should bear in mind the solemn warning of the revolutionary armed forces of the DPRK that they do not make an empty talk.
  There is in the West Sea of Korea only the maritime military demarcation line set by the DPRK. 

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 01:26 | 751609 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Whoop!  Has Baghdad Bob moved to NK?  Perhaps this is put out by Pyongyang Phil! :>D

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:18 | 751151 keating
keating's picture

South Korea has some impresssive submarines.

If a North Korean ship leaves port, in a conflict, it will be sunk in a heartbeat. Remember the Belgrano off the Falklands...yeah, like that.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 00:35 | 751502 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

They were foolish to send the Belgrano out, to some action, totally blind and undefended per se. It was a sitting duck. Those islands belong to the Argentines but British Petroleum wants the oil under them so they refuse to discuss letting go of them. Before the war, the Brits didn't even have a aircraft carrier for their jump jets so they made the some cruise ship into a aircraft carrier for this conflict.  The Argentines would have been wise to send the Belgrano to a Brazilian port or whatever to protect it until the war was over. They overloaded their humming bird asses with their big mouths and they got fed some lead for their trouble. If you start something, you had better be prepared to back up your mouth. This lesson they learned the hard way, since the society was always founded on some kinf of military dictatorship or whatever. It is one thing to parade around in nice pretty uniforms with lots of medals on your chest. It is another to fight a war with the Brits.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 01:35 | 751638 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

And it was a good thing that the Argentine commander on the ground surrendered and stopped the fighting when he did on the last day of that little go around.

The only thing I wish to discover about that Falklands War is what happened to the Her Majesty's Frigate "The Arrow" I took a foot tour on that ship one day long ago and cannot discover the story afterwards. She was armed with a 5.4 inch (I think,) and a pair of seawolf short range mounts with 4 boxes on each along with a few 20/mm port and starboard.

What they had then was something, what the Brits have now is amazing. And yes they can fight. No question.... and probably are a touch crazy in the head when they do choose to fight.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 01:45 | 751651 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

One thing the Argentines did that was clever was to approach the British forces in the distance with cargo planes and then they would push French Exocet anti ship missles out the cargo bay doors. Then they would trigger them to start and they would of course find their targets. The Exocet was a bad boy in its day and probably still is. Most of the Argentine jets probably were destroyed by British defensive missle installations. At that time, I don't think they deployed shoulder fired stinger kinds of weapons. I have a complete US News magazine laying around here somewhere with the complete report in it on what happened in that war. In my opinion, I know this may rub some people the wrong way, but we should have helped the Argentines instead of helping the British. Of course that is just my silly opinion.  Over the years, we always heard how untrustworthy the French were etc. But the French, unlike us, more or less always looked out for themselves and when we said jump they would sit there and think about it for a whle before deciding what to do. This was in their best interest. Not ours. I can see their point now, as I look back. They were right. We were wrong. Just another in a long line of history revisions going on in my mind, that is for sure.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 08:49 | 751941 BigJim
BigJim's picture

So... if the US had helped the Argies to take back 'their' islands (pretty debatable point, that one!), do you think the UK would have backed the US' wars in Iraq & Afghanistan?

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 03:16 | 751769 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

 

 Before the Falklands conflict the Brits had the 'Ark Royal' jump jet aircraft carrier. There, fixed it for you!  

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:19 | 751153 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

Key may be the artillery capability of the North to drop thousands of rounds onto Seoul in a matter of hours.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:25 | 751177 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

it would be suicide, but yeah.

as an aside,

rational unitary actor models (RUAM) tend to go out the window when the actor can't be considered rational.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:37 | 751205 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Funny how all the bogeymen get labeled as irrational, giving us the excuse to also act irrational.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:27 | 751326 Trifecta Man
Trifecta Man's picture

+trillions

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 08:49 | 751942 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Well put, sir.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 08:50 | 751943 Tortfeasor
Tortfeasor's picture

If the shoe fits

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:34 | 751195 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

the artillery won't last hours...maybe a few minutes...Kim Jong Dildo knows this.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:15 | 751301 Thanatos
Thanatos's picture

Uhh.. 1000's of rounds in MINUTES is more like it.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:20 | 751157 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

+5027

and Black--they have been counting for 60 years.  don't need no stinkin' GOOG.

- Ned

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:20 | 751158 onlooker
onlooker's picture

Where is Harry Truman when he is truly needed.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 03:18 | 751773 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

dean acheson, head of truman's state dept, said we would not defend south korea in the event of an invasion but would leave it to the south koreans and the u.n. (which was the fig leaf but that only for the u.s.'s tardy, ill-prepared and executed, and, apparently, very inconclusive response).  neither mao nor stalin thought they would be looking at what they were eventually seeing by way of major u.s. military opposition on the peninsula.  p.s. he more than any other person, imo, gave birth to israel as we know it.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 04:29 | 751822 Dan_Sylveste
Dan_Sylveste's picture

Possibly that was a good idea when Korea was basically a farming nation. Now that it's the number 1/2/3 (I forget) manufacturer of LCD displays and DRAM... not so much, right?

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:21 | 751159 ghostmissile
ghostmissile's picture

"we z gotz a type 2 Dong" i so horny my weapons are named after sexs toys"

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:22 | 751163 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

North Korea's Air Force is a sick joke; fifties ventage subsonic antiques.  Enough said.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:43 | 751222 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

Our eyes in the sky - satellites and drones - have most of the targets already identified.  Those that haven't been found will either be found by apaches or our eyes in the sky after they get 1 round off...the burst of artillery flame will give away positions.  Anything with radar will be demolished in the first 5 minutes of a conflict.  We don't need our interceptors  to take on their 'fighters', but my guess is that our boys will want some real time targets to practice on...it will be an old fashioned slaughter.  They don't have a nuke that's deliverable as artillery or on the tip of a missile, so their bluster and bravado are misplaced.  If the shit hits the fan, this will be the highest tech war the world has seen and it will be over faster than you can say 'Kim Il Dong sucks Sadaams Tapedong'.  Millions in the North will die.  Not good.   If you want a feel of how this plays out, go read Clancy's classic, 'Red Storm Rising'. 

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:57 | 751256 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

All that technology don't matter. A simplistic nuke rolled down the tunnel in an ox-cart from under the DMZ, set at the appropriate place in South Korea will cause enough destruction that even the most futuristic weapon cannot accomplish. 

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:01 | 751268 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

and that's why you are the King! Tunnels, they got, maybe all of them detected and counter-rigged.

bingo

(but not without certain "permissions" from someone to the West)

- Ned

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:11 | 751292 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

You are right...I just think the ROK's have that figured out.  NK nukes are large and heavy...getting one across the border without detection is almost impossible.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 00:17 | 751453 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Its interesting isn't it how this Clancy guy always seems to come up with good topics for his "books"

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 08:41 | 751935 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

His new writings pale in comparison to his older works.  Wish he would get his shit together and write some thing new that is worth reading.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:25 | 751318 I_Rowboat
I_Rowboat's picture

Hey!  Are you callin' MiG-9s antiques?  Those things can rip a Sopwith Camel to shreds!

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:44 | 751368 Jasper M
Jasper M's picture

HAhahahaha! Made me laugh out loud. Good job!

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 08:44 | 751937 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

You ought to see what they will do to a Enidecker Albatross.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:28 | 751329 TonyV
TonyV's picture

North Korea's Air Force is a sick joke; fifties ventage subsonic antiques.  Enough said.

I was thinking along the same lines. Numbers don't matter much. Most of the aircraft is probably Mig-21 and tanks are probably T-72, the kind of technology that Sadam had

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 00:21 | 751460 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

They look real pretty marching in parades.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:22 | 751165 chindit13
chindit13's picture

Kospi down 4 points.  Looks like Annie was right, 'the sun come up, tomorrow'.

Relief rally in HK, Tokyo down on renewed dollar weakness vis-a-vis the yen.

Given everything that has gone wrong, it seems nothing short of the Four Horsemen appearing in the Manhattan sky is going to shake the faithful from their belief in recovery.

Seems there will be a few more nickels to pick up in front of that oncoming steamroller.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:29 | 751185 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Exactly! Said in an earlier thread, with all the "bad" news today the indices were down around 1.3%. That's not much. Low volume tomorrow and Irish news better this evening, Korea off the front page, we're going much higher into the holiday.

Cheers!

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:41 | 751214 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

So much is wrong with the market but they want to fraud it up some more.

Unbelievable that lulu, guess, netflix were safe havens in this down market.

Korea may not be off much but their won is, might be working for them.

With so much going on, who would hold long over the holiday here? I know they want their Santa claus rally soooooo badly but even the mutual funds and hedge funds are being busted.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:45 | 751225 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Easy to stay long - bad news doesn't stick. Worst news you could get today only took the market down 1.3%. Not much of a drop. 

Better question, taking that into consideration, is who would want to be short??

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:28 | 751328 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

market down because of the strong dollar. korea not relevant to the market.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:39 | 751354 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Yes, as Tyler pointed out today theres a carry trade. Dollar breaks 80 we will see es 1150 in short order.

We need the euro going up not down if you want this us rally to keep rolling. But its unlikely with more euro zone problems out there.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 01:27 | 751614 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Don't confuse the twat with talk like that.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:23 | 751167 skippy
skippy's picture

NK vs. SK is about choke points and *rice paddies (* wet and muddy in the growing season and hard in winter).

Anyhoo its a non starter, same shit different day, I call shenanigans!

Skippy...I knew she loved me...when she shouted AH-PHO!  

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:23 | 751169 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I am not (nor close to being either) an expert.  Although I do read the papers, etc.

My take is that if NK attacked, two things would probably happen.  Seoul would get destroyed in a firestorm from all the NK artillery (and missiles, good post Tyler).  Second thing that would likely happen is that the NKs would not get any further than, say, 3 days infantry march into SK.

And then we blow 'em away.  Too bad about Seoul though.

That's why I don't think that there will be a war, NK knows it would lose.  Probably fairly bad before China could really step in with boots on the ground, crossing the Yalu again, how 1950s...

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:25 | 751178 ghostmissile
ghostmissile's picture

yea, but what you described is something the s.koreans could use to justify a "preemptive"attack. where have i heard that term before.........

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:06 | 751265 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

North Koreans are a brainwashed cult. Watch the Nat. Geo. documentary called "North Korea" (available in NetFlix streaming).  They will all die for "their great leader". Get inside the mind of a mad-man multiplied 33 million times. The only "sane" people to escape from NK are those who are willing to subject their families and relatives to a life-time of imprisonment and the guards in those prison camps are warned not to treat prisoners like humans. A few kids in those camps had to wash cow dung and eat the undigested corn for nourishment.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:04 | 751276 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Naah, SK does not want to lose Seoul.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:30 | 751186 Shameful
Shameful's picture

China would not step in. They don't want a fight. If a fight starts odds on favorite is SKorea wins and that is potentially ruinous for China as it likely puts more US bases ever closer to Beijing. This is important since it looks like China could fight carriers with missiles or their new subs. US would probably dole out all kinds of aid to make sure it got those bases as it would provide a stable fighter/bomber staging area. Aid SKorea would need after losing Seoul and needing to build up a wrecked NKorea.

So China would either have to step in and trigger a war with the US, or let the US get another dagger wedged against it's underbelly. War in that region benefits none of the regional players.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:51 | 751235 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

Our S. Korean Bases are plenty close to China, we don't need any more (plus we don't have it in our budget).  If it gets to a conflict with us, their subs would be gone before they have a chance to fire a shot  (we are the undisputed masters of the underwater warfare world - no one comes close)  China has new long distance ballistic ship killers though...all that being said, they aren't worried about us....they are worried about 20 million poor N. Korean refugees crossing the border.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 01:35 | 751634 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

they are worried about 20 million poor N. Korean refugees crossing the border.

What, are there no workhouses, no poor farms (no machine guns, no concentration camps)? :(

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:53 | 751239 Weimar Ben Bernanke
Weimar Ben Bernanke's picture

The one problem of occupying north Korea is an insurgency. The people in North Korea are very nationalistic. We could face Vietnam revisted. A north korean insurgency that can cross the border with China and get weapons,and manpower from China just like North Vietnam in the Vietnam. Do we have the stomach and money to fight a bloody guerilla war in north Korea when the conventional war is over? I do not think so.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:08 | 751284 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

I read somewhere that the average north korean is 3 inches shorter and 20 lbs. lighter than sout koreans (something like that anyway)...abundant food, decent shelter, clothing and medicine can change their nationalistic leanings in a hurry, especially if they are starving and freezing to death.  Did you see their live birth infant mortality rate?  It's 5%!!!  This is the twenty first century! Unbelievable!

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:10 | 751289 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Naah.  We just kick the NKs real hard in the ass (destroy their invading army, nuke & missile programs, etc.).  We do NOT need to occupy NK.  We just let them starve or let China take care of them.  Just "neuter" the damn country.

All of this of course if they (NK) start the war.  Which they probably won't.

This occupying of Asian countries thing we have been doing is getting tiresome.  We do not need to do that anymore.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 03:28 | 751778 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

as you well know (great documentation in past comments), we never did.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 03:35 | 751785 RabidYack
RabidYack's picture

Weimar,

As far as the Vietnamese reactions towards foreign intervention into their lands go, I'd suggest you view "The Fog of War", which features the reflections of Robert McNamara.  Perhaps after that you will see how your comparison of the Vietnamese situation to the potential Korean conflict is irrelevant. 

As far as your insurgency argument goes, again, it is apples and oranges (I admit, I might be taking liberties in my understanding of your implied context, and if I am doing so please forgive me, but I am to understand that you imply that a similar situation will unfold in S. Korea as has happened in Iraq.)

I believe this is false, for North Koreans and South Koreans are not separated by different sects of a religious faith.  (one might claim that N. Koreans are bred to believe in their 'supreme leader' as a deity.  Even if that were so, their 'god' is failing in health, and truly I think that N. Koreans have more information from the outside world than one would assume).  I would go further to explain the nuances of the Iraq situation and the various religious sects, as well as their political and national alliances, but I am sure you are aware of them already.  I'm thinking this is more of a Berlin Wall than a Tet Offensive.  Rumsfeldian?  Perhaps.

I think the question that we should be pondering is, given the failing health of Kim Jong Il, what does the timing of these incursions suggest?  China's silence might mean China's tacit approval.

And Jessica Simpson still has huge tittays and I'd bang the crap out of her.  

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:58 | 751250 M.B. Drapier
M.B. Drapier's picture

The Chinese government surely wouldn't attack US forces or try to save the DPRK in a new Korean war. They wouldn't want the US (or a US ally) up against their huge land border with the DPRK though, especially after the nasty stuff last time. DPRK refugees would be a big hassle too. So I guess they'd send a huge army south over the border to grab themselves the biggest buffer zone they can. (They wouldn't wait on Kim's permission to do so.) Obviously the US/ROK advance would have to halt where it met the Chinese line. Then the diplomacy would begin. The Chinese government could set up a new North Korea in the buffer zone, but I think they'd at least try to use their rump NK and the lure of Korean unification as leverage, to make sure that unification happens on their terms as much as possible.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:49 | 751383 Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

China is in absolutely no position to negotiate. They can huff and puff and blow the enormous amount of smoke like they usually do. But they are a paper dragon, not a real one.

The U.S. has one very key weapon which can be used against China in the case of a conflict. We simply invalidate all of those Treasuries that they own.

That solves quite a few problems.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 01:09 | 751575 M.B. Drapier
M.B. Drapier's picture

(Didn't junk you.)

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 03:37 | 751786 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

be careful what you wish for.  once invalidated, other buyers wonder who's next.  it's a plan only if the u.s. govt doesn't need to sell any more bills, notes, bonds.  unfortunately they need to sell many, many more and the average maturity of the current outstanding debt is quite short, maybe three to five years with large amounts needed to be rolled monthly, according to posts here.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:30 | 751333 tired1
tired1's picture

China 'steps' in and the US writes off the debt. Sounds plausable.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:50 | 751388 Jasper M
Jasper M's picture

Actually, I suspect there is every reason for an expectation that the Chinese might come in on SK's side - Marxist roots aside, they have little reason to want a nuclear armed nut cease on their border. They might pull a Russia-in-Poland, and invade to "save" some part of it, as a buffer zone. 

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 12:35 | 752579 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Trying to predict where China actually stands right now is like predicting the path of a butterfly..  I wouldn't put up anything I didn't want to lose on that bet..

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:40 | 751209 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

DoChen--nfw that infantry is moving like that: FEBA Alpha, stops them cold.  no mobility/routes, needs frozen rice paddies.  Pretty much needs hard winter (that they get to have) for any armor/mech.  All of the N-S roads have "overpasses" that can be rigged to drop.  Serious traffic jams.

Seoul was ranged by ~1600+ tubes, last I saw.  But plastering Seoul doesn't win anything.

Chem? yep, esp to dirty up the southern fields.  They (DPRK) have these glider kinda piper cubs to insert their specops bugeaters to fubar the msrs and fields.

Nuke threat?  Yep.  like DPRK takes Seoul and says: "play ball my way, or I light off my nuke in your city."  possible.

I'm with you-China keeps Dear Leader on short leash, but lets the dog bark a bit.

- Ned

[ed: spelling]

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 00:02 | 751418 CPL
CPL's picture

Shelling the crap out of a manufacturing center for the electronics that go into pacemakers, ram, cells, routers...who could you convince to leave a bomb shelter to make sure the cordless phone you and I use is going to get made.

 

This is going to be a war of supply lines and shortage.  North Korea doesn't even have to use nukes to switch off the west.  Just burn down enough manufacturing base to call into question if you get to own a 42 inch plasma tv for a while...or a new diabetic testing kit...or hearing aid...or <insert anything with electronics in it>

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 01:41 | 751645 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

My home is filled with the Crap as you put it.

I am willing to do without it. As I understand it, Samsung USA is building a resource here in the USA itself. IF we did lose Seoul, it's going to hurt, real bad in the way of parts and such useful things for all the modern stuff we use today.

I will get a few good years of service out of the parts and equiptment. However my heating and cooling is made right here at home in the good old USA. (With a motherboard probably from frigging taiwan or something. ugh)

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:43 | 751223 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

If nk does nothing and this blows over quickly, their new kid leader has zero creditability as a threat.

It's brewing, I do think something will come of this.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:58 | 751258 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

I think Kim Jong Ill and his effeminate son realize the consequences of a major attack.  They care not one little bit about their people, but they won't risk their priviliged way of life drinking black label and fucking any woman they please...they're like the pissed off dog at the fence:  they will bark and growl and foam at the mouth and they'll bite you if you stick your hand out, but they won't come into your yard and attack.  Check ou the map of where the attack occurred...north of the DMZ in the disputed zone.  They were barking and testing the resolve of the south.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:09 | 751286 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

I don't trust the son. He has everything to prove, I have a gut feeling he'd be worse than his father.

Right now the world is scrambling trying to down play the events and sweep it away. Business as usual, go back to stock market ramp ups etc. I just don't see it happening.

Us news media is shit, sky news and BBC having better coverage.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 01:44 | 751649 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I remember when dear leader got a little crazy back in the mid 90's we were hauling all sorts of useful stuff to the ports for a summer before he dropped dead. Thankfully. Not a word in the Media. But I have sat in truckstops surrounded by flatbeds bearing artillery and loads of other military stuff. All headed to the ports during that time.

 

The little child General that is up there now, he does not understand what it is to fight and why. And I am worried that this one will break property and kill people (Already have) just to show off or something.

 

I say add up the damage and send the boy general a bill for it. Due and payable immediately.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:36 | 751349 hbjork1
hbjork1's picture

China will not want a conflict at this stage.  As noted by other posters, they would have to get involved. Verrrry, verrrry bad for business.

IMO, son doesn't really have clout with the generals who may well want to show strong with this little dust up.  But father and son do like the idea of getting attention on the world stage.

Wonder how much time Obama has been on the phone with Hu Jintao already?  

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 09:00 | 751950 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

"China will not want a conflict at this stage"

China and NK have closer ties than has been suggested in the above post.  Perhaps we just go a shot over our bow regarding QE 2.  From China with love.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:23 | 751172 knukles
knukles's picture

Hold the boat a sec.....

The AP piece posted (many thanks) states on page 3 that there was a  skirmish lasting about an hour as S. Korean howitzers and air power responded which might have left N Korean casualties.
Uh, while AP's got it, most other MSM reports seem to have left that little tidbit of information, along with the initial S. Korean shelling out of the picture.

Am I the only one missing something here?

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 00:05 | 751425 CPL
CPL's picture

No you're not, we all seen the reports today and google in it's usual favor has yanked any reference to them to make sure the story is covered when people actually pay attention.

 

Hopefully the loons screaming Baby Venga said so are wrong on this.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:26 | 751179 ptolemy_newit
ptolemy_newit's picture

North Korea is nothing more than the watch dog barking at the edge of the China property line.  Do you think that Kim does anything with out approval from Beijing??

The facts are:

1. North is starving and needs communication to get aid.

2. It knows that a well placed forex trade through Goldman and a lobby of rockets will provide huge revenues.

3. China knows that a rush to safe dollars will reduce inflation.

4. America is a pussy and everyone knows how to manipulate it, (a man in a hat negotiated Afghanistan peace) :) lol

Obama is writing his next book "how i almost became a banana" (white on the inside)

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:00 | 751264 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

touche'

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:32 | 751339 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

"Hermit Kingdom"...and "yes they would do something without China's approval."

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:42 | 751362 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Excellent point. Rush to dollars kill off the ramp up in commodities and reduce inflation in china without adjusting the yuan which would crush their exports and send companies under.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:58 | 751410 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

+1

NK is nothing more than an aggressive beggar.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 03:31 | 751782 lolmaster
lolmaster's picture

correct on all counts sir

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 08:55 | 751945 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Obama's skin may be black, but his heart is as white as the driven snow.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:26 | 751180 Fraud-Esq
Fraud-Esq's picture

Without infiltration and coup, this is the kind of war with massive casualties.

Discounting completely the nuclear question.

The tops of buildings in wealthy downtown Seoul have sandbags and anti-aircraft battery. It's eerie.

The South always wins, the question has always been cost and alliances.

Arguably, the North has only increased its leverage on the casualty question for the last two decades.  

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 00:12 | 751439 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Unless 300,000 screaming Chinese troops come down again, like they did at Chosin, once upon a time, long ago.  Perhaps the Chinese are already there, dressed as Koreans. Not sure though. I saw a show on the Christian channel a while back, that showed Christian people trying to smuggle Bibles into the North from China. The Chinese seem to have a very low reguard for North Korean illegal aliens and are very swift about arresting them and  sending them back etc.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 11:49 | 752434 still kicking
still kicking's picture

That was a very different uneducated China, there are still a lot of Chinese that don't know better but I would estimate over half the population is now educated and not willing to run into battle where they are slaughtered.  The only reason Chosin went bad for the US and South Korea was because they didn't have enough ammunition, the Chinese were mostly peasants with no idea how to fight a battle, they won by shear numbers the US was not expecting, I doubt the US would make that same mistake.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:33 | 751189 Fraud-Esq
Fraud-Esq's picture

Here's a PR by N Korea two days ago foreshaddowing this event/tension over Hoguk.

Interesting....

Are we pushing buttons? 

http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2008/200811/news11/20081111-06ee.html

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 00:14 | 751446 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

sounds like someone is pushing some buttons trying to provoke them. Heck so far this week we have been fed a steady diet of groping and now Korea ,again. I wonder why the misdirection play?

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 09:53 | 752056 hugomarch
hugomarch's picture

Not to mention the investigation of money managers...  All misdirection to take heat off the FED?

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:35 | 751200 Fraud-Esq
Fraud-Esq's picture

Even more interesting is this quote from weeks ago...

"The marine corps' landing exercises were staged every year during each south Korea-U.S. joint military exercises. But it is the first time in history that division-level exercises take place this time."

true?

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/dprk/2008/dprk-081104-kcna02.htm

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:55 | 751248 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Fraud-leave it to you to cite DPRK "news".

The whole series of "spirit" exercises have been going on for decades.

- Ned

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:11 | 751282 Fraud-Esq
Fraud-Esq's picture

leave it to me...

No such thing as "news", just assertions and claims of fact. 

I posted their assertions because they're a party to the dispute. We already know our and everyone else's assertions.

Should I scrub their contentions from an airing?

BTW, the more detailed the assertion, the more interesting it is. They asserted a fact about the changing nature of the exercise to the division level. I think that's interesting if true, no? 

 

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:41 | 751359 hbjork1
hbjork1's picture

Interesting, yes.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 00:37 | 751507 Bob
Bob's picture

Thanks for the balance, FE.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 09:49 | 752039 hugomarch
hugomarch's picture

Good job FE.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:38 | 751206 putbuyer
putbuyer's picture

BS as nothing will happen. This is just the Sleight of hand. Focus on the real problem - killing the dollar. By the way...........

scannerporn.com is already taken
scannersex.com is already taken  WAKE THE FUCK UP!

Things are never as they seem

1. Summary Of All Overnight Developments Out Of Europe As Spanish 10 Year Bond Spreads Hit All Time Wides
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/summary-all-overnight-developments-out-europe-spanish-10-year-bond-spreads-hit-all-time-wide

2. European Bloodbath Intensifies As Spanish Bond Yield Hits All Time Highs, EURUSD On Verge Of Going Bidless
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/european-bloodbath-intensifies-spanish-bond-yield-hits-all-time-highs-eurusd-verge-going-bid

3. On That Accelerating Irish Bank Run...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/accelerating-irish-bank-run

4. Goodbye reserve currency: Yuan begins trading against the rouble (China Daily) this is big news
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-11/23/content_11594595.htm

5. Insider trading scandal
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sac-discloses-government-subpoena

6. TSA issue. Keep it front page.

7. China orders N. Korea to create a disturbance. The Sleight of hand. I'll do a Denninger - "Wake up Folks"

8. The end result. Redistribution of wealth and new IMF world control. Dollar dead.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/22/411951/bernanke-hints-dollar-standard-is-flawed/

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:42 | 751219 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

+1

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:35 | 751347 Sespian
Sespian's picture

China and Russia have decided to renounce the US dollar and resort to using their own currencies for bilateral trade, Premier Wen Jiabao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced late on Tuesday. Chinese experts said the move reflected closer relations between Beijing and Moscow and is not aimed at challenging the dollar, but to protect their domestic economies. "About trade settlement, we have decided to use our own currencies," Putin said at a joint news conference with Wen in St. Petersburg.

http://business.asiaone.com/Business/News/Story/A1Story20101124-248833.html

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 01:14 | 751588 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

You do realize I hope that the same people who run our financial system also own the Chinese and the Russian finanicial system?  When you see some puppet saying words, you can be sure it is all for show and postering. It means nothing. What will happen will happen because the city of London wants it to happen, nothing more, nothing less. I am not sure how many countries in this world are not controlled by the same people but you can be sure that most of them are. It has been this way for a very long time. You can tell by looking at the membership list of the IMF. If they are members of the IMF then this means they are under the auspices of the Rothschilds Banking Cartel.  When you hear things like well the Chinese are going to do this about the dollar, it doesn't mean that much per se, because the Chinese people, like the Americans do not have control of their own money. So the play continues, the actors on the world stage utter their lines. The foolish goyim watch and comment about it all and think they really know what is going on but don't. It has been this way for a long time. It is like the game with the pea and the cups. Which cup is the pea under?  Does it matter?  Nope.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 01:33 | 751629 Sespian
Sespian's picture

Just curious...did you even read the article?

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 02:06 | 751679 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Well do you disagree with what I said? Is there somewhere in my statements that you think are false?  Yes I read the article in answer to your question but I would hope you see my point. The point is now, as it has been for almost a hundred years here. Either we get this monkey off of our backs, the one called the FED, or we will always be the slaves that we now are, it is just that simple. The FED ladies and gentlemen. The FED. It stands in the way of liberty and freedom. Nothing else matters. It is the key to the door that we can open. It must be done one way or the other. It must be done soon. No more delay ladies and gentlemen. Do you all understand this? There simply is no more time. It has to be done in this generation. In this generation.  You simply cannot, cannot have power over yourselves unless you control your own damn money. There simply is no other way. None. I noticed today on CN bullshit, that they had a poll that people could take online. The questions were , which would you rather happen, be groped or be scanned with no other options. So we see how it is with that. This is what they will say to the sheep. You have two options. But you see each option is not really what we want. The same thing will happen with the FED questioning by our fearless masonic leader Ron Paul. Oh he said at one time, well we need to get rid of the FED. But now you will see "other options" cropping up and the ground work for this is already being layed. The first mistake you make when discussing details with satan is to dance with him on any level. It is the spirit of compromise that is so prevalent in our politicians now, as it is in us. But the point must be driven home, by hook or by crook. No other options will be allowed. Get rid of the FED ,  Ron Paul.  Get rid of the FED.  Nothing else will do.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 13:06 | 752680 Sespian
Sespian's picture

I believe Russia is a rogue state.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCxjqPgHgpA

 

BTW, I'm not a member of csper nor do I recommend them, but their video series is well done.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 10:53 | 752224 hugomarch
hugomarch's picture

You must have missed the briefing...
Khordokovskiy landing in the Siberian gulag in perpetuity put the NWO on notice vis-a-vis its ambitions in Russia.
 Vladimir Vladimovich saw the western NGOs for what they were and gave them all the boot.
Soros was handed his walking papers - philanthropic efforts notwithstanding.  Was told to sell his shares in the Lomonosov porcelain factory; was experienced enough to get out while the getting was still good: http://mosnews.blogspot.com/2005/04/soros-development-fund-sells-its-las...
Other, less experienced operators didn't see the writing on the wall.  NWO shareholder activist Bill Browder (Hermitage Capital) was declared PNG at Sheremeteyvo airport: http://www.businessinsider.com/hedge-fund-investing-in-russia-2009-10
No more Russian women for him...
Jeffrey Sachs and the IMF were rebuffed when they wanted Russian citizens to pay market prices for energy.  BTW, this guy and the IMF turned the Latvia into a economic basket case: http://www.counterpunch.org/hudson02152010.html

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:46 | 751373 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

... else WWIII (or some facsimile there of). Good answer, putbuyer.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:42 | 751218 Weimar Ben Bernanke
Weimar Ben Bernanke's picture

South Korea's military prowess would crush the north. many seem to forget that south korea has a massive military. Their active personnel is 700,000. There reserve force is 4,000,000! On top of this they are equipped with the best modern weapons,modern navy and airforce.They are building a great battle tank called the "Black Panther(XK2)" And they will have a blue water navy by the begining of the next decade. The thing that boggels my mind is why do we have a presence in south korea when they can defeat a DPRK invasion force and even do a counterattack. So the north does not even stand a chance. The only thing the north has their massive artillery barrage agains eSeoul and nuclear weapons if invaded.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:02 | 751271 Gigantor
Gigantor's picture

The Korean Peninsula would do a good job at negating the value of armor as it is really, really poor tank country. 4,000,000 reserves don't do you much good when they take time to assemble and ready for battle. Again, the DPRK couldn't sustain a long term commitment without help from China, so they would probably run out of fuel a few weeks of heavy combat, but not before striking a decent distance into the South and probably "taking" and ruined Seoul. As for aerial counter attacks by the South/US, much of the DPRK's forces, SAMs, barracks, artillery are located in heavily reinforced underground installations. It wouldn't be like Gulf War I/II, not even close. 

 

And again, the distance between both armies is so very close, the initial invasion would strike like lightning, it would be gone just as fast, but the butchers bill would be high for both sides...it just needs to be higher for the South/US to rattle the public.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 01:41 | 751646 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

Dude, the North doesn't have enough ramyeon to breach the DMZ.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 01:49 | 751659 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

You make some good points. The United States should have about 9 to 20 million fighting age reserves 19-26 but half of which is unfit (Obese) and the rest have issues and require 6 months to a year before being considered a green unit ready to be fed as replacements.

Korea may be able to put her 4 million reserves into battle a bit faster, Particularly when NK is rolling down south.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 02:24 | 751703 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

NK will have a hard time rolling south with all those mines in the way. Just because NK has a larger standing army does not mean that they can penetrate the DMZ. Due to the terrain there are only a few places that they can cross and those chokepoints can give the superior South Korean technological prowess the ability to make itself useful.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:57 | 751409 Pinkfleud
Pinkfleud's picture

It amazes me how all you young bucks forget the lessons of Vietnam. Remember OUR superior and advanced forces that would crush those commi peasants? Think about what you're gonna say before you say it. Not that you're wrong but there are never ANY assurances when it comes to armed conflict, be there and experience it before you speculate you sound like my goddamned senators ..

Jus sayin

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 00:08 | 751428 CPL
CPL's picture

Well as it happens, the US didn't win the Korean war either.  Appearently there is still a north and south in that situation.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 00:26 | 751474 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Viet cong were called insurgents and terrorist. Their only crime. They wanted us to leave their country and leave them alone. Sound familiar?  One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter. I ask anyone. If someone invaded your country, wouldn't you fight them to the death?  George Washington said in his Presidential farewell adress for us to stay our of foreign intanglements. We didn't listen then and I guess we aren't listening now and I guess we never will learn from history. Every 40 years as a new generation comes around , they do not remember the days when their fathers fought and died for nothing in unconstitutional and immoral and illegal wars.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:54 | 751245 Gigantor
Gigantor's picture

 

Seoul would be a smoldering heap and the N.K.'s still have a lot of soldiers ,tanks, artillery and missiles that would reign fire down up the front line soldiers at the DMZ. Northern armor and infantry would strike across the DMZ and push a pretty decent distance into the South while also inflicting heavy losses on SK/US forces before an effective counter attack could be mounted to begin to push them back. Our forces are really just a tripwire and most of the combat units would be very badly mauled. Possibly by then, as may be the NK's plan, they could sue for peace/armistice/cease fire and bargain from a position of strength. The Norths military, while somewhat obsolete, is well trained, dedicated and will fight to the end. The conflict wouldn't be about driving all the way to the Southern tip, as they don't have the supply lines or the fuel to do so, but to maul SK/US forces enough and gain enough territory to do well at the bargaining table, especially if said table is furnished by the U.N. Also, the Navies really don't matter as the conflict would really be taking place on land and in the air. Our Carriers battle groups would be in and vessels would provide fire support but that's about it.

Anyone who really thinks any future full scale conflict between NK and SK/US forces to be easy or just a turkey shoot is really fooling themselves. There is a lot of combat power and soldiers in not a lot of space. 

 

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:23 | 751316 Weimar Ben Bernanke
Weimar Ben Bernanke's picture

North Korea's airforce is outdated. Hell Saddam Hussein had better hets then the north. You seem to forget that South Korea's airforce would hit those absolete mech units. North Korea's military is only good for defense. It is impossible to invade the country becasue: 1)30 million nationalistic fanatics heavily armed cititzens.

2) Chemical,Biological,and nuclear weapons.

North Korean soldiers suffer from malnutrition and rarely train due to a scarcity of fuel and ammo.  Most North Korean soldiers could not attack because they are needed to defend the entire DMZ and coastal approaches (they remember the 1950 landing at Inchon) while entire divisions must remain throughout North Korea to fend off heliborne offensives, food riots, and probable coups.

      On the other hand, the entire 700,000 man South Korean active duty army can be devoted to the defense of Seoul.  The modern South Korean army is backed by over 5,000,000 well-trained reservists who can be called to duty in hours.  South Korea has twice the population of the North, thirty times its economic power, and spends three times more on its military each year.   South Korean military equipment is first class whereas most of the North Korean military equipment is over 30 years old and much is inoperable due to a lack of maintenance.  If war broke out, South Korea has a massive industrial capacity and $94 billion in foreign currency reserves to sustain a war, while North Korea has no industry and no money.  As a result, South Korea is roughly five times more powerful than North Korea.

     If North Korea insanely attacked, the South Koreans would fight on mountainous and urban terrain which heavily favors defense, and complete air superiority would shoot up anything the North Koreans put on the road.  Assuming the North Koreans could start up a thousand of their old tanks and armored vehicles, they cannot advance through the mountainous DMZ.  The South Koreans have fortified, mined, and physically blocked all avenues through these mountains, and it would take North Korean infantry and engineers weeks to clear road paths while under fire.

     The North Korean military could gain a few thousand meters with human wave assaults into minefields and concrete fortifications.  However, these attacks would bog down from heavy casualties, and a lack of food and ammo resupply.  Fighting would be bloody as thousands of South Korean and American troops and civilians suffer from North Korean artillery and commando attacks.  Nevertheless,  the North Korean army would be unable to breakthrough or move supplies forward.  Even if North Korea magically broke through, all military analysts scoff at the idea that the North Koreans could bridge large rivers or move tons of supplies forward while under attack from American airpower.  

     It is important to remember that the last Korean war involved Chinese forces supported by North Koreans with the latest Soviet equipment and supplies.  China and Russia no longer aid North Korea and trade openly with South Korea.  Thousands of Chinese soldiers guard the Yalu River to prevent crossings by starving North Koreans.


Wed, 11/24/2010 - 11:17 | 752309 mrgneiss
mrgneiss's picture

The above is all true but none of it matters.  What scares the South is that the North has over 10,000 artillery pieces within range of Seoul that could level Seoul within half an hour.  Also, all the artillery is in hardened bunkers and caves and all but impervious to even direct hits unless from bunker busters or tactical nukes.  Everyone knows the north invading the south is a non-starter, the artillery is the real regional threat, the global threat being profileration of nasty technology and/or an EMP attack here.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 01:17 | 751580 nopat
nopat's picture

This.  I'll put my limited intarweb reputation behind this analysis.  Hell, Gigantor's reading from the fucking Korean Theater play book.  Anyone who thinks DPRK is going to roll over against ROK's technological prowess has never even set foot in Seoul or so much as looked at a map.  The first 90 seconds of battle equate to little more than the controlled demo of a city with the population of the NYC metro area but under a third of it's physical size.  Even with enough of an advanced warning there's absolutely no infrastructure on this planet capable of evacuating that many people.  Seoul was built, and it was built as a permanent edifice, albeit 34 miles from it's arch nemesis.  Last night was a sneak peak at the kinds of damage a small volley of shells can inflict.  All DPRK has to do is pull the chord on the artillary installations placed along the single largest directly-conflicting buildup of military hardware in the world, and they win.  That's it.  Game over.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:57 | 751255 pussfeller
pussfeller's picture

Will the ground troops of NK even fight? I mean... by now, even the average person has to know that tasty food awaits anyone who surrenders in a ?fight.

Food, nice clothes, smart phones, Ipads, makeup, Halo and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare might do alot more than bombs and bluster, here. Those people are utterly destitute and starving.

 

 

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 01:25 | 751607 nopat
nopat's picture

It won't matter, fact is they don't need to fight.  The outcome of this war has already been determined many, many years ago.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 22:57 | 751257 berlinjames02
berlinjames02's picture

The smart money will be on South Korea.

North Korean superiority in numbers (fighters, tanks, personnel and subs) doesn't mean shit if the technology is 20-30 years old. South Korea recently bought the newest version of the F-15 (still a great fighter) and has an assortment of block 30 and block 50 F-16s. And, they've still got tons of F-4s. (Better missles can make up for a lot.) What's the North got? Mig-23s and Mig-29s.

Same goes for the tanks. ROKA bought plans for the M1A1 Abrahms, which they produce under the K1A1, and the K2 main battle tank. (I don't know anything about the subs. Besides, it will be a land conflict.)

Word on the street is the South wins hands down in a conflict. If the North attacked, the problem would be shooting everything down fast enough! The initial wave for the North would be bloody. But, it would be tough to stop them if they keep coming. The North doesn't have the logistics to maintain a prolonged conflict, so it would be a 1 week sprint to Pusan. They will never make it. (You can only go so far on the caloric equivalent of 1 Pop-tart a day. Especially when people are shooting at you.)

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:25 | 751319 Thanatos
Thanatos's picture

One little EMP (doesn't have to be a nuke) burst and N Korea is not looking so disadvantaged anymore.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:27 | 751325 Thanatos
Thanatos's picture

Haha, their vehicles (K1, K2, APC's) are maybe better than the US counterparts... Not in Fire Control, but relability.

You been there?

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:00 | 751262 Testicular Cancer
Testicular Cancer's picture

Agree with you both. Hell, you dont need to read Red Storm. Just see Gulf 1. Norks back to the stone age. Bridges blown. Roads not passable. Wither on the vine.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:19 | 751307 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

The largest deterrent isn't NK military, its all the millions of refugees flooding  SK after KJI is taken out.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:48 | 751380 Gigantor
Gigantor's picture

Don't forget the millions that would flee to China from the DPRK if hostilities break out.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:21 | 751311 chindit13
chindit13's picture

The only wild card in this whole thing is the annointed successor to Kim Jong il, which is in the form of his miscreant, psychopathic son.  Kim Jong il was rational enough not to risk complete destruction of his private Disneyworld by engaging in any act that might bring Shock and Awe type retaliation.  Getting drunk, having a bevy of underage girlfriends, and being worshipped by law if not in reality was good enough for him.  The occasional temper tantrum got him noticed, got him some aid, and assuaged the hawkish tendencies of many of his generals so that they did not overthrow him.

His replacement is a whole different story.  The boy is batshit crazy, and may well step things up when he has complete control.  He was the mastermind behind the torpedo, and may well have been behind this latest escalation.

For the past fifty years or so most of these things turned out to be tempests in a teapot, causing but a few days' worry before settling down again.  This, hopefully, will be the same.  Once the Dear One is gone, however, all bets are off.  At that time worry will be fully justified.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 23:49 | 751381 taraxias
taraxias's picture

I usually enjoy reading your posts on here but this one in my opinion takes away from the good stuff you posted in the past.

 

He was the mastermind behind the torpedo

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 02:15 | 751695 chindit13
chindit13's picture

Greetings taraxias,

I stand by my post.  Give it time and that view will be corroborated.  The Dear One's oldest son left (escaped) the family and sought asylum of sorts in Macau. 

Incidentally, you have me puzzled...Greek name but a set of choppers one would usually only expect to see in the UK.

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