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Complete NFP Market Reaction Cheat Sheet

Tyler Durden's picture




 

All you need to know about how the market reacts to Non-Farm Payroll day in one convenient cheat sheet. Despite a gross cumulative surprise of 3,480,000 (jobs below expectations), and an average surprise of -27,000, coupled with a negative bias (0.53% negative surprise, 0.33% positive surprise), the market tends to have a bullish average return on payroll days of 0.14% (0.07% median) compared to 0.03% average on all other days. In other words, even if there is a miss tomorrow, which is highly unlikely, expect the market to "internalize" the news and come up with some completely idiotic explanation which excuses yet another stock ramp, which will only be avoided if nuclear war breaks out (and even then it is a toss up).

h/t John Lohman

 

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Thu, 03/03/2011 - 19:30 | 1016907 slow_roast
slow_roast's picture

"What dip?" said the blind man

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 19:33 | 1016917 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

nuclear war would send the real estate market soaring...which is in turn...yes...bullish.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 00:47 | 1017602 bankrupt JPM bu...
bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

"which will only be avoided if nuclear war breaks out" holy fuck that's great.  WOWzers.

 

www.silverogldsilver.blogspot.com

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 19:32 | 1016918 JuicyTheAnimal
JuicyTheAnimal's picture

and what do metals do? 

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 19:40 | 1016944 6_7_42
6_7_42's picture

Direction is always up ('cept DXY).

 

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 19:44 | 1016955 tallen
tallen's picture

Oh I forgot, the market can go DOWN.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 19:45 | 1016956 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Nuclear wars would be bullish.  Have to rebuild cities, dispose of corpses, decontaminate land and water, and someone gets that fat gov contract.  Go long Haliburton :)

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 02:00 | 1017704 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

Post apocalypse mutant labor will make the Chinese labor pool look like Teamsters!

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 19:53 | 1016981 Wm the Shrubber
Wm the Shrubber's picture

Leaning into the wind, but my guess is that we give some back tomorrow.  If the market wishes to inflict the maximum pain on the most people, then taking the "under" may be the proper counterintuitive play.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 23:42 | 1017449 Raynja
Raynja's picture

I'd have to agree, repeat of tuesday.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 00:11 | 1017533 Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

Yep, now that it's out in the open, have to kill it. Loved it when Bob Pisant on CNBC effused over the 1st of month metric in the morning. You knew the fix was in at that point.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 20:01 | 1017001 Traianus Augustus
Traianus Augustus's picture
Sarcasm: the last refuge of modest and chaste-souled people when the privacy of their soul is coarsely and intrusively invaded. - Dostoevsky

Every post - regardless of the story seems to be laced with sarcasm now. 

 

 

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 20:19 | 1017045 Orly
Orly's picture

I am surprised he didn't need fourteen pages of text to have relayed that thought.

:D

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 21:10 | 1017125 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

I'm surprised that anyone who reads Dostoevsky is still alive (vs. commit suicide)

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 21:42 | 1017174 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

by the 1860's dostoevsky was in his early 40's the serfs were being freed, his wife died, and also his brother.  he ran around europe, gambling.  roulette.  horrible, overweening compulsion.   The Gambler (1867) is an amazing little book.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 20:49 | 1017086 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

we don't buy the story yet the market (and sadly the country) runs on the story. what are we left with? what are our choices but sarcasm, tears or rage?

tears are best shed in private.

actionable rage is prosecuted.

all that's left....you know.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 20:08 | 1017020 digalert
digalert's picture

CNBS holding backstage pep-rally now!

DOW 36k hats ready to ship...

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 20:09 | 1017023 MolotovCockhead
MolotovCockhead's picture

The only way to get a negative market responce is for Ben Bernank to have a heart attack and rush into ICU, other than that, it's going up!

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 21:36 | 1017163 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

actually the easiest way for the markets to go down is for Elliott Wave to call "up'. They've been calling it down for 8 months and been getting it wrong for 8 months. There's simply no better contrarian advise, whatever they say do the opposite and you're 100% sure to be right because they're 100% sure to be wrong

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 20:25 | 1017053 alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture

 

   US has gone over the tipping point, it's aleady gone over the edge and is beyond redemption...collapse and/or default are only options.     ALL data and reports are IRRELEVANT and MEANINGLESS and will be rendered obsolete in the grander scheme!

 

 

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 20:54 | 1017097 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Exactly.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 20:51 | 1017091 gwar5
gwar5's picture

No work, no revenues. No revenues, more printing. 

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 20:54 | 1017092 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

 

People increasingly react to the latest stimulus - not the pattern.

If you are going to live for the moment, feel good in the moment, you must ignore previous data.

The rats in the maze are getting the pellet, and the pretty red light and noise means another pellet is coming.

There are a dozen cats stalking the rats, but they don't even sense the cats as their fellow rats are yanked away one-by-one in adjacent mazes to have their heads knawed off.

Pellet-light-sound-pellet-light-sound....consume...consume...pellet-light-sound....

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 22:12 | 1017244 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

the last cat that tried that w/ me, eb, i got her into playing, like frisbee golf w/me;  then i killed her.  but i don't eat cat.  especially a dead one.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 21:02 | 1017108 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

Oh, Tyler........ you're so cynical..... :)

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 21:25 | 1017149 Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

Ah NFP Friday ! Where fortunes are won and lost within milliseconds .

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 21:57 | 1017185 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Why does anyone think the stock market will react to a jobs report?

Who thinks a 50,000 blip up or down in payrolls would make me stop investing my $20k in a company i'd targeted or a negative payroll cause me to suddenly pull my $20k out of a companies stock??

Shouldn't the jobs report be sent to the Jobs Centre as a bell-weather for employment prospects? I'm perplexed why anyone would think jobs would impact stock indexes at all !

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 22:09 | 1017235 99er
99er's picture

NQ

Big Picture: Bearish Butterfly.

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/03/nq.html

Zoom: Butterfly transforms into a Wolfe Wave with a target of 2236.

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/03/nq_03.html

Bummer for Bulls.

 

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 22:30 | 1017282 Cursive
Cursive's picture

I really do think there's at least a 70% we'd have a green close on the SPX even if there were a (non-test) nuclear bomb detonated anywhere tomorrow.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 22:31 | 1017285 spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

which will only be avoided if nuclear war breaks out (and even then it is a toss up).

 

Classic. 

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 22:33 | 1017287 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Remember, Things only go HIGHER with Hopium!

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 22:46 | 1017298 lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

Off topic. Harvey Organ reporting the friends of Andrew Maguire have forced an 80% premium from Dutch Masters on their silver contracts. Apparently 4000 standing for delivery will break the Comex. 

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011/03/part-comex-tradingsilver-scandal...

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 22:56 | 1017333 alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture

 

 ....finally good news !!    many tnx bbb

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 02:11 | 1017718 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

If they are simply going to accept premiums, what does JPM care if they come back week after week? JPM has unlimited free money.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 23:34 | 1017424 barliman
barliman's picture

 

Will Skynet (HFT) continue the trading facade after nuclear winter?

Yes, it will flush out the bigger fools that somehow survived.

 

barliman

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 23:54 | 1017491 SilverBaron
SilverBaron's picture

At the company I worked for, if you didn't put your 401K into the high earning stock fund and forget about it (you are in it for the long term), you would be referred to the plant manager for a "talk" about why you should.  All those idiots lost a fortune.  Of course they gained most of it back now thanks to Ben, (at least the ones who were fortunate enough to still be employed) but we'll see if they are dumb enough to get screwed twice.  My guess is yes.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 00:16 | 1017543 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

Really, you think you want to own fixed assets in a nuke conflict? really? I guess if your shopping center gets nuked, you'll just wait a gazillion years for the land to stop glowing?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 02:52 | 1017767 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

we voted for aprah.  we got roseanne.  twice.  all we have learned is that oprah woulda been worse!

the best way to avoid nukular hologramZ from Costco is to be found in maniacal bracketology.

bracketology, i say. 

i like kentucky;  some of the prettiest cheerleaders in the state are sending me their bible verses now, and i'm gettin hardwood like a louiseville slugger.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 02:02 | 1017708 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

PMs looking stable overnight. If NFP looks bad, a rally?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 06:53 | 1017901 purple99
purple99's picture

“It's only after we've lost everything that we're free to do anything.”

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 20:44 | 1028083 lsjcma
lsjcma's picture

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