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The Complete Overview Of The Setting Economy Of The Land Of The Setting Sun

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Increasingly we have come to believe that the real marginal economy over the next several quarters will be neither that of the contracting US, nor that of the rapidly tightening, yet still very much inflationary China, but the (arguably) third largest one: that of Japan. Over the past month we have suggested that in addition to already latent deflationary tendencies, the recent post-earthquake collapse will require a dramatic, and very political intervention in BOJ monetary policies (here and here), in order to avoid a global contraction. Yet as David Koo proposed yesterday, the (infra)structural changes will demand an overhaul so profound that the contraction will be not only severe but likely very extended due to spillover effects into energy commodity demand, thus creating a non-virtuous feedback loop. So for those who are still new to the Japan story, below we present an extended presentation compiled by The Tail Chaser blog which compiles the relevant bits and pieces on the Japanese economy to scare even the most optimistic fan of the land of the setting sun (which certainly is not Dylan Grice who recently suggested that a very possible outcome is a Weimar repeat as the BOJ takes the von Havenstein route to excess debt resolution).

As the Intrigued Trader over at Tail Chaser says:

The data presented was sourced from a variety of entities and might not be 100% accurate/on the spot, but it sure gives you a very good idea about where Japan now stands in terms of growth potential, debt sustainability and risk-reward. It hasn't been updated to include after-earthquake/tsunami economic data and governtment/central bank response, however these tragic facts only make the case even more interesting. In my opinion they only increased the probability of my desired outcomes.

At the end I presented trade ideas that, together, from what I call the pillars for the bet against Japan.
Pricing has, of course, changed since then, but not a lot. As others have mentioned, the asymmetry is huge.

The final word on this trade is simple: confidence. If the music stops for JGBs, Japan could be gone quickly.

And for those who enjoy chasing black swan trades, nobody proposes better risk/return scenarios than Dylan Grice (here). In the meantime, here is all you need to know about Japan.

Japan Tail Chaser

 


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Sat, 05/14/2011 - 15:03 | Link to Comment ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

My question is: is nominal economic growth required in a society with a declining population? It seems to me that the answer is "no".

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 15:08 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The young people will have to work 16 hours a day to pay for the elders pensions then.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 21:47 | Link to Comment billwilson
billwilson's picture

OR more likely women will have to enter the work force in percentages closer to Europe and the US. Many Japanese women still leave the workforce once married. This is an untapped source of new labor and tax revenue.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 15:14 | Link to Comment Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Don't worry about America

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWS-FoXbjVI

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 17:18 | Link to Comment malek
malek's picture

Required for what?

For the society to survive (on a island with no natural resources) probably no, if the decline is gradual and the remaining economic strength is allocated wisely.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 16:05 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I left a comment over there Mr Lennon.  Nicely written, I recommend his short article to anyone interested in Japan.

The one thing I did not mention is how much our bearing import company needs to worry about getting Japanese product...

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 16:36 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Thank you DoChen.

So you are not currently getting product?  Where else can you get your product if not from there?

Sun, 05/15/2011 - 15:42 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

We are getting product from Japan.  There are still inventories of Japanese bearings in their warehouses in Panama and Miami.

Most Japanese bearings are produced in SW Japan, and so not too affected.  Yet.  One of Japan's very small bearing manufacturers told us that they are good to go for a few months, but that components like rubber seals could be a problem in coming months.

Most of what we buy is actually from Korea.  Too much competition in Peru re Japanese bearings.  So, we are moving to supply the Korean fleets (Daewoo and lately mighty Hyundai).  We have been the distributors for the two Korean manufacturers for a couple of years now.

Why don't we buy American?  Because Timken treated us like stinky garbage.  OK, fine, we'll look elsewhere.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 16:29 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

nice epitaph jimi. so true, left in a tear† grown woman crying over spilled whitewash.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 16:33 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Sat, 05/14/2011 - 15:12 | Link to Comment jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

Proof that 2008-2011, is repeating 1929-1932, then 2 years of straight declines and depression

http://www.themoneyalert.com/stockmarketcrashof1929.html

Read this article and look at all the exact similarities today. Bernanke is a student of the depression, and he is taking the exact steps now that were taken back then and caused a complete collapse of the system. Bernanke's studies taught him how to repeat the demise of America, not what not to do.  Bankers tried to save the economy in 1929-1932 and it led to horror for the people. 

Time for another round.....

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 15:17 | Link to Comment gianakt
gianakt's picture

I would hate to be long oil with this Japanese story on going and Obama announcing in his Saturday morning radio address that he is going to allow drilling in Alaska. Plus extend oil leases for the gulf of Mexico by one year.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 15:19 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

We must expand the theater of war to Iran and North Korea. Time is ticking, inbound revenues are low. We have silent partners funding the current wars. Just like a JP6 crackhead, they need to receive their monthly paycheck.

Sarcasm off

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 15:28 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

And a default would really cause some social unrest over there.

Most of their bonds are bought by Japanese citizens who where told that it looks cool with the ladies to own bonds.

So when they default, their citizens will be smoked bigtime!

The Japanese emperor will appear on the TV, and cry and say he is sorry.

And than some more guys will cry, expecting it all to be dealth with.

 

I sure like to watch these domino championchips where the build these landscapes and statues which represents countries. I always starts with 1 domino that falls and makes all the other once go.

 

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 15:36 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

It's all about taking out 195 countries with one stone. Long ago, I posted that it will take one event to consolidate a new global currency. The more crisis's they manufacture, the easier it will be sold to sheepville.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 16:32 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

A global currency is just impossible. It would be a crazy thing to do.

But now that almost every nation is going to implode, chances went up exponential from 0% to 1% in my eyes.

We'll see how it develops.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 22:26 | Link to Comment suldog
suldog's picture

Why do you say that SD?

It appears to be working swimmingly for the Euro.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 22:35 | Link to Comment suldog
suldog's picture

.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 17:26 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

double post deleted

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 19:35 | Link to Comment anvILL
anvILL's picture

Most of their bonds are bought by Japanese citizens who where told that it looks cool with the ladies to own bonds.

Nobody bought into that rediculous AD.
Its mostly banks and old people that own the bonds.
Although it is true that all citizens will be smoked bigtime anyways.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 21:17 | Link to Comment Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

Right.  Old people through government or corporate pensions.I don't know a single Japanese (old) person who said "Gee, bonds look good.  Let's support our government."  So I second you anvILL.  Anybody that COULD, sold long ago...most people are stuck hoping their macro-sugar daddy sells at the right time.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 21:20 | Link to Comment anvILL
anvILL's picture

Thanks for pointing out that they are buying through pensions. Very true.
However, I still see some old people holding long maturity bonds bought long time ago, in which my grandfather happens to be one of them.
Afterall, households account for 5.1% of JGB ownership which I think is a huge number if we consider the huge debt Japan has.

Assuming that you can read Japanese, here is an interesting chart to look at, although its a little bit outdated.
http://www2.ttcn.ne.jp/honkawa/4692.html

(Numbers on the bottom of the chart shows age group: 20's, 30's, etc....)
(The line that looks like -----X-----shows JGB ownership)

No wonder the BoJ is trying too hard to make young people buy JGBs.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 15:35 | Link to Comment VyseLegendaire
VyseLegendaire's picture

Everyone keeps talking about neo-fascist America becoming the WW3 Germany, but look no further than Japan to see the perfect setup for a gaijin-holocaust and remilitarization leading to an epic confrontation over the 'future of the homeland.' 

 

Shits gettin real. 

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 16:41 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

everybody's talking...that the savior will be coming.....and he will end all our suffering.....

You better ask youself how the richest continent got the poorest people!

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 20:56 | Link to Comment Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

Wow.

Sir, put down the mushrooms and walk this way towards the fresh air. I'm not even going to ask you to qualify "gaijin holocaust."  Remilitarization leading to epic confrontation seems something that it more suited to your avatar, not a sovereign (and broke) nation of 99% apolitical pacifists.  Let's be clear: as long as the US gov't still pimping the US Navy and Air Force for mercenary duty, Japan will keep paying the users fee and save themselves the trouble.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 22:29 | Link to Comment BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

heheheheheh

thats not the noble 'schrooms.

thats crack, skunk and meth all sucked down with JD chasers.

'gaijin holocaust', classic....

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 15:44 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Japan will use Fukushima to black mail the world...that's their last card.

Sun, 05/15/2011 - 06:20 | Link to Comment i-dog
i-dog's picture

WTF! ... the crack pipe is certainly being handed around today.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 15:43 | Link to Comment apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Going forward the Japanese will not have enough energy; just like the US under Barry.  If younger, I would move to Brazil.  The Southern Hemsiphere will be the only place to be once the nukes start flying.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 17:14 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

chile here i come......it even has a flag just like mine so i will feel right at home..

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 21:01 | Link to Comment Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

A bunch of Japanese already tried going to Brazil, both before and after the war.  Turns out they didn't like the home-invasion/home ratio and have been trying to get back to a land where they might have to pay a few extra bucks for gas or (*gasp* ride a bike) as the trade off for not being kidnapped for ransom.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 15:46 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

they are already flying from fuku you just haven't been told officially.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 16:32 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

people wake the fuck up. not that it is very easy to be awake. it hurts quite frankly. it frikkin hurts so bad to realize the deceit, carried out hourly against this wonderful and awe struck surface of beauty earth. beautiful hillsides, birds, flowers and people of the orient. murderers, these TEPCO people are. mass murderers of nature.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 20:52 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I hear ya. What can we do?

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 21:04 | Link to Comment Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

I hear ya!  I keep looking out my window waiting for the bus to pull up that says "Goldman Sachs/TEPCO Lynch Mob or Bust."  Mass murderers of the economy/Mass murderers of nature.  Contemptible bastards to a man.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 16:55 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBpd4-jw90E

radioactive fallout from the ongoing meltdown at fukushima is being carried by prevailing winds , that are spreading it daily over and over again, across the island of japan...it is totally unsafe to be in japan for the foreseeable future, no? is it not true that various countries have detected radioactive isotopes in japanese cargo shipments? that country my dear friends is dead in the water.......and nothing will ever bring it back , nothing....unless, unless they can by some miracle stop what is happening at fukushima. and we all know, by now, the problems inherent in such a task as this.........

when this black swan event first started i asked two questions? is this worse than chernobyl and many laughed then.

also i asked, is this the end of japan and would it be necessary to evacuate the entire island.....

as i look at this situation now, one can see, that when the rich and the elites started bailing on japan back in march, they were doing the right thing.....

the bad part about it is that nobody is telling anyone anything in japan. news is hard to come by on this event...

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 21:14 | Link to Comment Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

OK Drifter.  First of all, I've been paying close attention and I see no evidence that Japan's elites bailed out of the country. A few foreign traders anf gov't officials left Tokyo, period.  I appreciate your take on the uniquely "screwed" position you seem to think all of Japan is in.  I'll let you know how it is when I get there.  I'll be posting real-time from *gasp* Osaka starting next month, and I'll let you know how many glowing cabbages I find in the supermarket.  This is the most real and dangerous crisis Japan has faced since the fire-bombings of 44-45, so there is no need to blow it out of proportion.  Prevailing winds are the key.  Get back to me when the US military starts evacuating it's fighter pilots, general, and their kids from Tokyo (to the south) and Misawa (to the north).  Until then, don't go within 50 klicks of Dai-Ichi.

Sun, 05/15/2011 - 00:21 | Link to Comment Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

Not sure if that's blowing it out of proportion. Perhaps you mean "don't panic."

The situation is far more dire than most realize. Reactor 1 has a reading of 2 sieverts. 4 causes a very quick death, whereas prolonged exposure to 1 means nausea and perhaps a 7-10 year life span.

Reactor 1 measured 10-50 millis, just a week ago (considered dangerously high).

At this point it is hard to make any progress, so things will run their course. There are multiple holes in the reactors. Soon, molten fuel will heat up and melt like butter through the concrete.

Check your normalcy bias. Where are the scientists telling us what might happen? A little intellectual curiosity is enough to find the answers, but no one wants to know.

Not a doom and gloomer, just concerned that chicken little got it right this time...

Sun, 05/15/2011 - 00:22 | Link to Comment Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

Sorry, should have done the math to make it plain. In one week radioactivity increased between 40-200 times into the range where only robots could work there (soon it will be too high for robots).

Japanese diet is "studying" moving the capital...

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 17:22 | Link to Comment silver140
silver140's picture

The prevailing winds go from Japan, east to us brother.  Fukushima sits at the northeast coast of Japan, we are getting most of the shit here.  This info. has been successfully hidden.  We are now breathing, drinking, and eating radioactive nucleotides. We are sheeple, but radioactive ones, now.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 22:09 | Link to Comment misitu
misitu's picture

The typhoon season is (almost) upon us (them) which as far as I can figure out means that the winds, or rather the typhoon paths (as the actual winds have circular paths within a typhoon system), will track south west over Japan and then curve south and east, bringing whatever is in the air over Fukushima to eastern China, The Philippines, and northern Indonesia.

Wind mashups from Lucas Whitefield Hixson

http://lucaswhitefieldhixson.com/tokyo-japan-being-hit-massive-radiation...

show local wind circulations ALREADY drawing contaminated air to the south and west of the site.

 

This may be helpful information.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 17:33 | Link to Comment dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

Within a week or so I remember getting a real nasty feeling in my gut about Japan.. like mourning the dead.  They were still talking about how those early explosions were designed that way and everything was fine but it hit me hard since Japan has made living on this world a lot cooler and geekier and funer than many other blowhard nations

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 20:47 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Yeah i used to like the japanese until they started raining radioactive shit on us with no solution in sight.

We need a russian solution. They knew how to put out a reactor.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 22:24 | Link to Comment anvILL
anvILL's picture

Sorry, but I had to junk this one.
The U.S. caused a massive financial collapse causing pretty much everyone in the world to suffer, with no decent economic recovery in sight.
Does that justify everyone in the world to dislike the Americans including the average Joe?
Of course not. They too are the victims.
I now hate the American banks, S.E.C, Obama and the rest but that does not make me dislike Americans at all. 

Hate the Japanese government and TEPCO all you want.
But disliking the Japanese for the raining radioactive shit is unjustified.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 22:37 | Link to Comment BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

Dont be so sensitive.

TCT doesn't like anybody.

Wops, degos, honkeys, japs....  etc,etc.

Sun, 05/15/2011 - 08:06 | Link to Comment raised_by_wolves
raised_by_wolves's picture

Right on, anvILL. Right on.

Sun, 05/15/2011 - 01:17 | Link to Comment michigan independant
michigan independant's picture

No solution other than world support.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 17:13 | Link to Comment poydras
poydras's picture

I seem to remember posts advocating a Yen short at over 90.  No one ever seems to come back to apologize for their bad calls.

Japan has two wonderful characteritics - A significant, large, chronic trade surplus and a large, positive NIIP.  The US is the mirror image.

You Japan bashers are almost as deluded as the US cheerleaders.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 18:15 | Link to Comment gookempucky
gookempucky's picture

poydras you might want to keep an eye on the MBS market in Japaane.

Large-Loan Defaults In Japanese CMBS Rise

05-12-2011

 

Defaults on large loans in Japanese commercial mortgage-backed securities continue to rise, accounting for 59% of the total outstanding loans at the end of April, according to Moody’s Investors Service. It represents a 17% increase from March 2010. The credit rating agency reported that none of the ¥147.6 billion ($1.83 billion) of loans that matured last month defaulted, bringing the total of defaulted loans to ¥568 billion ($7.05 billion) at end of April, up 25% from the preceding month

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 18:34 | Link to Comment poydras
poydras's picture

The internal debt problem in Japan is very serious.  Internal is the operative word.

Japan may take yet the debasement route.  My view is that they are more likely to deal with the debt via tax and entitlement adjustments.  Devaluation and default is the standard prescription for countries with trade deficits and high external debt.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 20:45 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

How are they going to keep their trade surplus going with electricity shortages and a high yen/usd?

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 17:42 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Someones thought in my inbox.

That being said, I wouldn't short treasuries right now. Have you seen the dollar lately? If you want to short treasuries why not sell the dollar? You know this game as well as I do, they'll prop the dollar and that's what they are doing right now. Like I said, I rarely use my account but I did buy the dollar when it was near 72 recently. It's pretty much nickel and dime stuff with those trades though.

The whole thing with forex is capital flows. The US exports inflation more than anything else these days. We fire up the printing press and the ten keys on the computer to create digits for export. Bond yields are for s()hit here so the capital looks for higher returns elsewhere. Large capital inflows to an economy tend to drive prices up for the end user.(sorry Brazil, et al)

You'd think the Boyz would have to raise the interest rates eventually to attract investment but not if the Fed is buying treasuries off balance sheet. Crooks. That's how these S(hitheads work. This is exactly the reason why gold has been going up in price(not value) all these years. Silver bubbled a little bit there but I still like that metal in the long term.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 18:04 | Link to Comment partimer1
partimer1's picture

not that matters much, I think you meant Richard Koo.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 18:35 | Link to Comment ILikeBoats
ILikeBoats's picture

So is it safe to buy a Mazda or not?

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 19:51 | Link to Comment anvILL
anvILL's picture

Safe, as long as you don't buy a used rotary. lol

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 18:52 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I do not follow the intricacies of the foreign markets but I did find this article to be of interest:

The Myth of Japan's Economic Depression Lost Decades

Apr 15, 2011 - 12:11 PM

By: Kel_Kelly

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article27579.html

Summary

Despite conventional opinion, Japan's economy has not been stagnant; it has in fact been growing in real terms — although not in monetary terms. The crucial point is that monetary changes do not necessarily reflect real changes. Japan's GDP growth has been slow because money-supply growth has been slow; it is mainly money growth which drives GDP numbers. Therefore, going forward, we must try to observe real economic growth — the production of real goods and services — instead of just GDP. Seeing things in the correct light allows us to recoup Japan's lost decades, which weren't really lost.

Talk about your charts and graphs... There are plenty to choose from in the article and it is very specific in details.   It might be a good sister article to this one to take some of the edge off the catastrophic outlook.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 19:32 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

according to koo (Paste):  the (infra)structural changes will demand an overhaul so profound that the contraction will be not only severe but likely very extended due to spillover effects into energy commodity demand, thus creating a non-virtuous feedback loop. (End paste)

rosie and i have just received a grant to do a study on non-virtuous feedback loops while watching porn.

unfortunately, the study is to be a monograph.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 19:51 | Link to Comment anvILL
anvILL's picture

If Japan Didn't Blow Up Yet, Why Will It Now?

The reason provided by the writer that Japan will blow up is fundamentally very sound.
However, I don't think Japan will blow up now.

Have we seen a weimar rally in Japanese stocks?
Are the Japanese rushing to gold to protect themselves?
Is the Yen tanking against major currencies?
Are U.S. government bonds collapsing right now?
Is inflation getting out of hand in Japan?

I think there needs to be a Yes answer to at least 3 of the questions listed above for Japan to blow up now.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 21:19 | Link to Comment Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

Those are good bullet points.  I'm going to put them up on my wall.  Number 4 is the only one that looks like it could turn to a yes any time soon.

Even when Japan DOES blow up, I don't see why they won't have a quick restructuring, quick turnaroundand then back in the game.  If Russia can do that and get it's house in order Japan should do at least as well.

Sun, 05/15/2011 - 05:17 | Link to Comment reload
reload's picture

Russia is being cited rather often as an example of `successful default`. However in terms of society it is (and was at the time of default) not comparable to the nations currently at risk. It is effectively a one party state and the majority of the debt was held by overseas creditors. Most importantly, it is fabulously wealthy in natural resources - so   very different from the eurozone periphary and Japan.

Sun, 05/15/2011 - 09:14 | Link to Comment anvILL
anvILL's picture

Another successful default that is often cited in recent days is Iceland. But does that country have fabulously wealthy natural resources? i don't think so.

As long as a country can hold those that caused the mess accountable, eliminate the debt , and have resources - industrial, technological, natural, or whatever- a quick recovery is definately possible.
Does that mean Japan will recover successfully? Well, I don't know.

However, I do not believe that natural resources are generally not the most a key factor.
You can make a car without russian oil and nat gas.
Making a car without Japanese companies such as Jtekt, Asahi Kasei, NOK, etc., is pretty much impossible.

Sun, 05/15/2011 - 01:49 | Link to Comment thx111
thx111's picture

I think Japanese government and Japanese financial institutions should sell all the USD denominated assets.  Then we will finally see which country has the real fiscal issue.

 

Sun, 05/15/2011 - 03:43 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

If it weren't for all our farmland we (the U.S.A.) would have beaten Japan to the punch and been in the gutter of post industrial powers back in the 1970's.

Sun, 05/15/2011 - 10:12 | Link to Comment Tense INDIAN
Sun, 05/15/2011 - 14:53 | Link to Comment PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Does this mean as Japan monetizes....er, prints, PMs in terms of Yen will rise?

http://goldprice.org/gold-price-japan.html

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 05:44 | Link to Comment juyitrade3
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