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Complete Paulson Q1 Portfolio Update: Major Additions To Gold Exposure, New Casino Stakes, But What About CDS And Gamma?
Paulson & Co's March 31 13F has been released. The fund is increasingly playing the barbell strategy, adding materially to both financial and gold stakes (both new and existing) across the board. While there were no new additions in the list of top 10 names, Paulson did add to some key names: the fund upped its stake in Bank of America by 16.8 million shares, bringing total value in BofA to $3 billion at 3/31 (combined with selling 3 million BAC Warrants); Paulson also has continued to increase its stakes in various gold producers, including Anglogold and Kinross. Other names added to included XTO, Hartford Financial, CBRE, First Horizon, and Macerich. The firm established new positions in MGM (40 million share), Apache (3.4 million), Mylan (11.4 million), Family Dollar (6 million), Devon Energy (3.3 million), Novell (25 million), Novagold (20 million), Supermedia (2.6 million), Dex One (3.7 million), Smith International (2 million), Boyd Gaming (4 million), Randgold (0.5 million), Iamgold (2.7 million), Beazer (5 million), Barrick Gold (0.4 million), and First Midwest (0.4 million). In short, Paulson added 4 new gold exposures in addition to its massive $3.4 billion stake in GLD, Anglogold ($1.7 billion), Kinross ($567 million), and Gold Fields ($297 million). Stakes eliminated completely consist primarily of various M&A arb deals that closed: Burlington Northern, Dr Pepper, Chattem, IMS Health, Encore Acquisition, Fifth Third, Kraft, Liberty Media, New York Community Trust, Pepsi Bottling and Pepsi Americas, Philip Morris, Sun Micro and Valley National. Of Paulson's $21 billion in total notional holdings at March 31, 30% were held in names directly related to gold extraction, production or gold ETFs.
Below is a full list of the fund's holdings as of March 31. Paulson's holdings as of Dec. 31 can be seen here.
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also you can follow Paulson at this link (SEC) which is updated quarterly
‘13F-HR’ Documents: Quarterly Holdings and Combination Reports by Institutional Money Managers -- Form 13FPaulson & Co Inc (Combination Report) Quarterly Updates
Stock to own? CIT...
Added by Paulson and Einhorn, sold by Icahn. Is there a better indicator out there?
Let the garbage meltup continue.
Well... John Thain does have that "$hit Don't $tink" persona..
Beazer? Is he nuts or is he anticipating an acquisition..hmmmmm....
That has to be it. Long term, the home buyer demographic is getting put on long term neutral do to their defaults. (both default by necessity and default by choice) Boomer retirement is also a drag. Can't see where demand will come from... I've also heard of some Homies shopping around the globe for $$$.
he has been touting a housing recovery lately (especially in cali). I suspect he is secretly shorting CDOs again..
Beezer up almost 10% on Citi upgrade to Buy.
GLD? I guess Paulson knows something we don't know. Or does he?????
Paulson has redemption rights - we don't
And I'm sure he has at least his stuff audited himself. Perhaps the GLD promoters needed a celebrity investor to sell the GLD fraud to the gullible public ala the Goldman-Buffett unholy alliance. I'm sure there must be hidden kicker (like, say, interest payable in Gold) to attract Paulson to "invest" in this shitpile.
Paulson has been long gold for at least year, right, so no surprise there. This is the same Paulson that worked with a Goldman Sachs crew to create shorts for the housing bubble.
A GLD vs. physical position provides insight into the investor. Anyone buying GLD values liquidity, indicating the intention to speculate on short-term trends, while discounting the possibility of major dislocation. Buyers of physical form a totally separate market, one willing to sacrifice liquidity, take on acquisition and storage costs, and assume risk of possession in anticipation of major dislocation. We can therefore know Paulson believes in the system; if you do too, then emulating his actions is probably a good move.
Sacrificing liquidity:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gk5aRIz17fk&feature=related
Classic bet on Reflation to win, place and show.
Or Reflation to win, Masturflation to place, and Hyperinflation to eventually show?
Leo, (pointing) the big guys, look at what they are doing.
Hope he is selling financials. That ship has sailed.
We've never had a major hedge fund manager go from hero to goat. Some have had a few good years, then frittered away the gains until they closed shop. Perhaps we are due for one to remind all that, in large part, trading success has a very large element of luck. Yes, there's research, and discipline, and money management, but if the markets have taught us anything in the last few years it is that research and logic can, at times, be of absolutely no value whatsoever.
Another major HF manager, though I cannot recall which one at the moment, once said that eventually the markets discredit everybody. Paulson, when he still had Pellegrini with him, came out of nowhere to become---as ZH demonstrates here---the prime focus among the HF community. David Tepper beat Paulson's record for one year take home, but he has slipped beneath the headlines again, putting the bright lights back on Paulson.
40% of this list is in major banks and financials. That is a rather large bet, even relative to S&P weighting. Paulson has more faith in Bernanke and Geithner than most people do in their chosen god. For that brief moment in time on 6 May, what was this portfolio "worth"? If the market bid disappears again, how likely is it that Paulson can escape from $3 billion of BAC, $2 billion of C, $1.5 billion of STI and COF, a half billion of WFC, etc.?
Could he be the one that goes out as spectacularly as he came on the scene?
No, he is TCTF.
It's possible.
I have no idea what his trading strategy is. Is he just a seat-of-the-pants type of guy? Or is there a methodology?
Making the correct calls and having the wherewithal to structure special deals is impressive, but we're also living in absurd times.
My instinct is that many hedgies are going to be wiped out. The UK has just proposed a 50% capital gains tax that (ought) to cause most funds to either liquidate or seek safe haven elsewhere.
I doubt the US will be quite so crazy, but you never know. The tea party people may just elect some kind of Mugabe-style lunatic that would do things like impose such confiscatory taxes.
A large number of folks, HF's and regular non-value-added funds, have bet the ranch on the continued ability of the Bernanke-Geithner-Obama Axis of Evil to continue to manipulate and rig the markets in favor of the least deserving members of our society....er...species. In the event democracy actually rears its ugly head again in that oligopoly known as the United States, that is going to be a very bad place to be positioned. It's a sure thing, until it's not.
By the way, cannot imagine why you got junked. Hope you post more, because I would like to hear more of your views, considering your background.
I can take a little junk. I've taken plenty of hits in my life so far.
As we can see from the Tories, populist uprising doesn't necessarily result in sane policies. It just results in a different set of crazies in power.
There's no way that the deficit can be closed by conventional means. There are also major political issues involved in dealing with the Federal debt (in regards to China).
I'm critical about the Tea Party because of the people that I've met through it. They seem to be unprincipled to the extreme. I can tolerate (and even like - sometimes very much) Ron Paul type people. But I dislike it when these politicians raise money from poor people and the young in promising them something better than what we already have.
They spend all their time focusing on these political issues instead of on improving their economic conditions.
The people that normally appear to be powerful or skilled at running the political system are actually turning out to be completely powerless in the face of these systemic issues. It may take generations to engender a superior society.
There are no quick fixes. There are no political solutions to this. There's no magic piece of legislation that will suddenly wave away all the evil in the world.
HF are re-locating to Geneva. Believe me from a personal experience; they are paying for homes, office space and entire buildings 20% above what they are worth. Geneva is and will for ever be a cosmic center of shadow, discrete and arcane forms of financial services. The other one is Zug.
Is he betting, maybe, that banking will be nationalized?
I thought late trading was illegal now?
Would you gamble 40% of your portfolio to let the government be the final arbiter of your closing price?
If I was assured there would be no real regime change in the interim? Possibly.
It's possible that he and his staff have no concept of political risk. I'm not sure. I've only read a few profiles of Paulson, and have no personal connection to his circle.
It's possible that he and his staff have no concept of political risk. I'm not sure. I've only read a few profiles of Paulson, and have no personal connection to his circle.
Doubtless long financials was still a good idea going into the end of March.
Not so rosey now though. If only we could get a real time peak at this portfolio now...
No offense to Mr. Paulson, but I'd rather follow what Paolo Pellegrini is doing with his money.
Totally.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=akryRHYHS0Sg
Pellegrini, who is 6 feet 2 inches (188 centimeters) tall and weighs 190 pounds (86 kilograms), is a former jazz disc jockey with some unconventional views on how to fix global finance.
Many nights, he volunteered as a disc jockey at Milan’s Radio Radicale, spinning vinyl by bebop greats Dizzy Gillespie and Charlie Parker.
god, men are great†
I love your use of asterisks.
It makes me tingle.
Pellegrini is certainly a different bird, though...
ø ø
‡
…,…,…
£ £
¡
¨…,…¨
this one is for you cheeky, pound it†
¥ ¥
§
«»……«»
or my residing asian friends, if i still have any†
¢ ¢
¿
…¸¸¸¸…
obviously, for the american cent-less†
§ §
®
ˆˆˆ îiˆˆˆ
fuck, seeing the section sign way to much lately†
kind of has an american indian feel, don't you think?
i see blankets, wild west.
...hey wouldn't it be fun, if i could put my smiley faces on top of my chest!
bye bye
fuck, all of you global world clock people.
wouldn't you rather wake up to some of my faces, might be speculating here, but to the alternate?
i actually wake up to the birds singing, sets the stage for a nice day.
if they go........i go.
plus last question, whose time stamp, do i see when you post {outside USofA, only please}
my time or your time?
in honor of the giro d'italia maglia rosa
i changed my v neck to the pink rosa†
does anybody have a magnifying glass†
Tyler Farrar (Garmin - Transitions) outsprinted Fabio Sabatini (Liquigas - Doimo) for victory in stage 10. Farrar's teammate and lead-out man Julian...
G U E S S W H A T
fuck yourself†
ROFL! I... can't... feel... my... legs!
†
FWIW, that 40mm shares of MGM looks very interesting to me...quick and simple beta between MGM stock and CDS during 3-6 months Q4 09-Q1 10 and you see 120x ish...With CDS trading at ~800bps, that's a DV01 around say $3300 / $10mm notional (again give or take)...so I suggest (ever so humbly) that Mr. Paulson has bought $1bn notional credit protection (short credit) [Math:- 40mm shares / 120x = 333,333. Then to get to that DV01 we need 100x$10mm or $1bn notional protection] - arb guys, ignore the crude math for now. So he buys 40mm MGM shares and Buys $1bn Credit protection to be 'approximately instantaneously empirically (lots of caveats) MtM hedged.
BUT...a quick optical at the charts of MGM CDS vs Stock and you see CDS got pretty rich (tight) relative to stocks during that quarter as all the craziness of reach-for-yield (and its own fundamentals played in) and so while he is 'hedged', he is looking to take advantage of the potential mispricing....
AND...even better, should MGM go tits-up - and we have to assume recovery is gonna be ugly, he gets paid say $700mm (30% recovery) on the CDS and loses say $480mm (or whatever he paid for it, which is likely less)...
SO..instead of being a fully bullish bet on MGM (he is huge long MGM stock and it will do the rounds on StockTwits tomorrow), he is actually hoping for a huge bearish ending [DEFAULT] and in the meantime, showing his huge Stock holding in MGM gets the momo boys and coat-tail hanger-onners to pull his arb into a nice PnL position in the meantime (coz technical buying pressure in stocks will outweigh any supply of protection in CDS)...
Just thinking out loud
So you mean JP would indicate a long equity position only to be short higher in the stack (and grateful that short credit positions will likely not have to be reported for at least 2-3 years)? Or that he makes 15% in a reflation and 50% in a full collapse. Never happen. Just ask ACA.
He is betting on either LBO or M&A. Thats his thang; thats what he is specialized in and what the structure of his fund is [look it up, JP&A is a M&A fund]. He is going long not to deceive the market, but purely based on the belief MGM will be bought.
I would be willing to chip in a $1. to send Paulson a Zerohedge "Gold, Bitches" coffee mug, but only if he agrees to send Tyler a picture of him using it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyDqoLimejg
dumpster portfolo update
5 shares rgld
2 SHARES gg
2 shares apple
4.50 in cash
Family Dollar Bitches!!!
Lots of money doesn't = smarts.
He may look smart in a manipulated, buy buy buy quant market. But if equities and gold crash in a deflationary spiral see how smart he was.
One
Hit
Wonder
His big trade idea wasn't even his idea.
Better off looking at Steve Cohen's portfolio.
"One hit wonder"
Could be, though it was a bases loaded homer in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and an 0-2 count in the 7th game of the World Series. Time will tell.
Long term, I'd bet on Tudor, Bacon, Kovner and Soros/Drunkenmiller, who have stood the test of time across all asset classes in both bull and bear markets, semi-fair and completely rigged. I had a lot of look-sees on one of these guys back when he only had $6 million under management. Unbelievably prescient, and even more disciplined. His success is not the least bit surprising.
Paulson isn't a one hit wonder. And me thinks everyone is giving too much credit to Pellegrini. It was Paulson's idea and Paulson decided to make the huge bet. Pellegrini did most of the analysis. So far, gold and financials have been a great call. I wouldn't be caught dead in any financials now, though (or ever for that matter). Nor a gold ETF.
Agreed about Paulson, but you're a bit off the mark about Pellegrini. The reality is that Paulson only had a general idea, a hunch, about that to do. Pelligrini not only had the analytical evidence, but he developed an innovative plan to essentially "create" the market they wanted.
You can certainly make the case of a limited track record versus Paulson, but Pellegrini has proved not to be a one-hit wonder, either. Far from it.
Perhaps the market gets them all in the end. Who knows?
Doesn't Steven move too fast to make his 13s worthwhile?
Side note: I've been seeing Mead Johnson in lots of 13s (i dont own).
Anonymous 233364 (comment is now removed)
Somewhere between your eyeballs and your frontal cortex, you have suffered a rather catastrophic disconnect that has rendered your reading comprehension skills useless. Either that, or your glial cells (provides nutrition to your neurons) are starved, and you should consider sprinkling fish food on the top of your head.
The vast majority of editorials written on this website are accurate, insightful, and god-damn witty. If there are a few central themes to ZH they are: Wall Street is corrupt and manipulated; our politicians are liquifying the US dollar; US debt is on a collision course with its creditors; our politicians are self-serving charlatans who masquerade behind a thin veil of public service; and the metrics which measure the true health of the US economy are questionable, at best.
From what I read (and I read ZH every day) those are the main points of this site, and I think other regular readers would agree.
If you're trying to use ZH to trade the market from day to day, then you've haven't seen the ball since kickoff.
The unraveling of an economy is a process, not an event.
Petsmart has great deals on brine shrimp eggs this week. Do your glial cells a favor, and sprinkle them on your head. Your brain is starved and not functioning properly.
and....several nice pictures of female backsides too, if I may notice without reducing the seriousness of ZH. ;)
deflationary spiral see how smart he was
gold will be the coming go to currency
also for that manner .. here we have a whole active scrum of drooling wanna bees
the whole world turned up side down..
surely we all know that lasting happiness is not found in a poulson portfolio .or does this bring contentment
when is enough enough ,, a billion ,, a trillion
what is the price he paid.
just an aside ... as for me and poulson spit
mark .. yes nice summery of the zero hedge posting
and the message
<<< The tea party people may just elect some kind of Mugabe-style lunatic that would do things like impose such confiscatory taxes. >>> Wow! Now here is a clueless comment if there ever was one. Obviously, you know nothing about the Tea Party movement. If anyone is going to impose higher taxes; VAT, 50% LTCG tax, etc. it will The Anointed One. That would be the Socialist ideologue now sitting in the Oval Office.
What I find interesting about the Paulson bets is the underlying assumption that the Federal Reserve has a LOT more ammunition to use to combat deflation.
Bennie Mae has gone to great lengths to ensure that deflation is NOT part of the equation-- and it seems like he would be willing to keep ZIRP for as long as entirely possible, inflation consequences be damned.
He might just well be right... but it would require the Fed to expand its balance sheet A LOT more than where it's at today. Crazier things have happened...
5T in a year is my bet.
They do have the capacity for twice that.
Interestingly enough, I've heard from some of my staffer contacts in DC that Bernanke made specific assurances to certain "voters" during his re-nomination "campaign", that he wouldn't to past the $3 trillion mark.
Of course, promises are made to be broken... when you are trying to save the finanical system from total collapse... again.
I can't imagine that the commercial short positions in gold that TD recently reported had anything to do with this sort of activity.
Cramer was on CNBC today touting gold like a slave touts watermelon on a hot summer day right before winter.
I put on some shorts today on gold just because Cramer said to buy it. I will add to them incrementally throughout the next two months JUST BECAUSE CRAMER SAID BUY IT.
Paulson ... A later day Hunt ... watch Au go to $2500 then $5000 and I'm no gold bitch
Paulson's GLD position is not a directional exposure but it is the currency the gold share class is denominated in. The changes in his GLD position do not reflect a change in bullishness or bearishness but rather the amount of hedges his hedge fund investors in the gold share class require to denomate their shares in gold ounces. If there is new money coming into the gold share class or there were redemptions then Paulson needs more or less GLD to hedge the share class.
The actual directional exposure is reflected in the gold miners he owns and any deriatives he may have (that we don't know of).
This is continously being reported wrongly in all mainstream media.
It's Prechter vs. Paulson. Who would you bet your money on? A perrrenial loser with 99.5% wrong calls on EVERYTHING for DECADES (with only retail suckers buying Elliot Wave nonsense keeping him from starving to death) or somebody who puts his money where his mouth is and wins?
EURUSD / EURJPY continues to show buying support on intra day chart.
EURGBP daily chart gives mild bullish warnings.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan co-hosts Bloomberg radio between 7am and 10am this morning
http://www.bloomberg.com/streams/audio/radio_live.asx
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100005734/congress-blocks-indiscriminate-imf-aid-for-europe/
Help me out here, I'm trying to figure out how the scam works?
ponzi market up = silver down
ponzi market down = silver down
fiat currencies up = silver down
fiat currencies down = silver down
contagion fear worldwide = silver down
Does that about sum up how the manipulation works today? Sounds like a free market to me. lol
Where are the Chinese solar stock positions?
Oops, guess I violated Ray Dalio's Rule # 11.....
It's kinda hard to evaluate long positions when short and derivative positions remain hidden.
Paulson is still trying to raise money, through major brokerages and private money finders. He has, what thirty or forty billion now? Quite a lot more than anyone else in the biz, and larger than all but a handful of financial corporations. Why is he soliciting more?
Similar to KKR, Blackstone and other mega-fund LBO managers. Just by showing up, you get paid ridiculous amounts money from the management fees alone.
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