As Conference Board/UMichigan Find Confidence At 3 Year High, Rasmussen Says Investor Confidence Plunges To 2011 Lows

Tyler Durden's picture

Is it about time that everyone agreed that all "consumer confidence" indicators are politicized, circular, irrelevant, and just as credible as the next lie to come out of Larry Yun's mouth? While a few days back Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan "found" that Consumer Confidence had surged to a According to Rasmussen, "investor confidence sinks to another 2011 low." Ok, enough. It is more than obvious to anyone with half a brain that "confidence" is nothing more than a gamed, goal seeked indicator, which is a function purely and entirely of the political agenda of the entity collecting the data. Another great example: while the Consumer Comfort index was managed by ABC until last week, it was scraping all time lows. Then the week it starts being managed by Bloomberg, and, lo and behold: "Consumer Comfort Increases to Highest Level Since 2008." A surge in confidence? Really? On gasoline passing $4? Luckily even Bloomberg admits the credibility of this latest propaganda index is suggest to say the least: "The four-point gain last week follows a five-point increase
in early January. The gauge dropped five points in the week
ended Feb. 6, the biggest setback since January 2010. Movements of that magnitude are unusual because the index
is based on a four-week average, Langer said. Nonetheless, the
gauge is mimicking the shifts seen in a 10-week span in mid-
1993, when the economy was also recovering from a recession." Ah, the good old Bloomberg "assumption taken as fact" Jedi mind trick.  Last time we checked the only "recovery" was that in the debt ceiling, er, target, assuming its achievement of $100 trillion in under 10 years is considered "recovery." Was the "also recovery" driven by the biggest global deficit spend in the history of the world, and the first outright debt monetization episode since the advent of Weimar? Guess we won't read that in the Bloomberg piece.

And since one can only smile at the propaganda, here is some more from Rasmussen:

The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures the economic confidence of consumers on a daily basis, rose slightly on Friday to 79.4. The index is still down six points from last week and 12 points from a month ago.

In 2010, the Consumer Index ranged from a low of 69.7 to a high of 91.1. Most of the year it spent in the mid-70s to mid-80s. So far this year, confidence has ranged from a low of 78.1 to a high of 93.3.

The Rasmussen Investor Index, which measures the economic confidence of investors on a daily basis, slipped two points to 88.0, the lowest level measured since December 9. Investor confidence is down eight points from a week ago and nine points from a month ago.

Perhaps the Confidence Game Board can explain the following:

Just 26% of consumers say the U.S. economy is getting better, while 21%
say their personal finances are getting better. Thirty-four percent
(34%) of investors believe the economy is improving, but only 26% feel
the same about their personal finances.

Or perhaps not.

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jus_lite_reading's picture

Of course, the CONference Board sees CONfidence at 3 year highs!

There's no better way to improve consumer confidence than to see your food bills increase 30% YoY, to see your gas bill go up 50% YoY, to see interest rates sky rocket and to see your home value decline!

Everyman has a castle! Everyman has a Rolls in the driveway and a roast duck on his plate!

poor fella's picture

They polled the consumers that decided to stop paying on their credit cards, or the other 99'ers perhaps - (the ones that haven't paid a mortgage for 99 weeks)? Might make one feel pretty good, maybe even frisky enough to go on a shopping spree!

sulfur's picture

damn so much confidence...guess when gadaffi funded these universities he send them some of these revolution making drugs as well.....

sabra1's picture

well, isn't the Bernank a confidence man?

eddiebe's picture

Isnt his name Quadhafi?

Arthor Bearing's picture

It's too bad, the US economy is gonna need alot more confidence if its gonna score with the fertile plains of the near east. What an awkward courtship

Seasmoke's picture

i am quite confident that the entire ponzi economy will collapse in 2011

Buckaroo Banzai's picture

What else would you expect from BloomTurd?

fuggetaboutit's picture

makes sense consumer confidence at 3 year high while HP cant give a computer away and GM only sold cars in Q4 because they jammed their incentives up to about 150% above the industry average while re-entering the subprime lending business (repeat: GM reacquired Ally in Q4, TO RE-ENTER TO FREAKING SUB PRIME LENDING BUSINESS)



DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Looks like GM would be a good short then...

cowdiddly's picture

Great time to move to Detroit. LOL

Bleeping Fed's picture

I bet Detroit has thousands of great fixer-uppers...

SheepDog-One's picture

'Consumers' are confident...hell even Walmart is showing big slowdowns. The desperation of these people is embarassing.

rosiescenario's picture

yes, that news from Walmart was worse than expected and should be further down as gasoline and food prices further curtail consumer spending.

gmj's picture

Investors are smarter and more knowledgable than the average consumer.  Investors have less confidence than the average consumer.  Correlation maybe?

vainamoinen's picture

Hey!- I'm confident - - -

confident that some people I know are about to lose their jobs and their houses.

But, like Barback says, "it's all good" - - -

Oh regional Indian's picture

The theater of the absurd. It's up, it's down...

of course it's down. In people's boots, if you read the reports.

Full propaganda mode is on now. Gaddafi's death rumor another case in point.

Caveat Emptor for news.


jus_lite_reading's picture


Remember this: Headlines are for suckers.

On retail suckers "buy" the headline. The savvy investors know there is no reality. What is truth?

Consumers are confident that American Idol and Dancing with the Stars will continue to air even if revolution takes place in this country.

goldstandard's picture

The consumer confidence poll seems exactly that. A confidence game. You would have to be out of your freaken mind to believe that people are confident that their going be able to feed themselves after finding that gas in many places is now over $4 Federal Reserve monopoly notes a gallon. They might think twice about seeing a doctor if they do have health insurance because that co-pay might be better spent feeding themselves. But hey, what do I know. The Grand Puba Bernake says inflation is sooooooooooo tame. No worries.

Sorry Barrack, your administration is a failure on many levels as you should have given Ben the heave ho a long time ago. It would also have helped if you grew a pair and stood up to Wall Street every now and then. But hey, look at the bright side. You all have another 2% less in Social Security deductions in your pay checks, so that will more than off set those sky rocketing gas and food prices. Right? Polls and numbers are there to be massaged and manipulated in order to maintain at best, public opinion. Hitler's boyz had that down pat., but if you really want to know what's going on, just head to your local Piggly Wiggly supermarket or local gas station. The cardiac arrest is free of charge.

rosiescenario's picture

"It would also have helped if you grew a pair and stood up to Wall Street every now and then."

...I think he hopes to be re-elected and heard the campaign will cost about $1bil......he needs GS more than they need him, though he has been pretty good to them.

Dick Darlington's picture

In this CONfidence indicator the n is what, 300 in the initial survey and 500 in the final version. I guess the survey is done with a few hand picked bankstaz who just got their bonuses.

Milton Waddams's picture

"Do you have the consumer confidence report? Hmmm.... yeaahhh... okay, I'm going to need you to come in on Saturday then."

Quickly loads a chart of the S&P 500, recognizes that stock prices are where they were three years ago.

"Uh, Bob... I mean sir ... I, uh, made the calls. Confidence is at a three year high. No need to come in on Saturday then, right?"

logicalthought's picture

It's interesting how after frequently quoting the ABC Consumer Sentiment Poll (now the "Bloomberg" Poll), you didn't quote yesterday's:



papaswamp's picture

Rasmussin and Gallup both have Consumer confidence down. I think the conference board is now a non-indicator.

eddiebe's picture

Q.E.III is in the bag.

Bleeping Fed's picture

I wonder what will happen to consumer confidence when cheap Chinese baubles aren't cheap any longer...

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Conference Board/UMichigan public sentiment indicator.

Public myth making at it's finest.

oklaboy's picture

Obama the wise and wonderful, Obama the wise and wonderful

topcallingtroll's picture

I do see consumers more confident. Spring is almost here and people are bored with constant crises and have become desensitized to fear. You can only stay afraid for so long.

On the other hand as an investor I am pessimistic. There is no value out there and weeds are priced like flowers, even precious metals.

Munis now in many cases have a higher return than treasuries and they are free of federal taxes, even triple A secured general obligation that have priority over other state obligations. That is the only "value" out there.

rosiescenario's picture

Coincidentally, Fidel reported that the consumers in Cuba are very happy, too, which meshes with Dear Leader's report on North Korean consumer sentiment, also at an all time high.

Bleeping Fed's picture

Dear Leader:  I have 5 tons of twinkies.  How many nukes that buy?

JR's picture

It reminds me of a Dilbert cartoon where Dogbert was selling autographed baseballs to low-wattage people.






As Nathan Martin said of the “confidence” game today in his Market Update:

“[P]syops has an impact.  ‘Consumer’ Sentiment just came out higher to go along with the inflated supply of money – 77.5, up from 75.1. Still depression era levels, but come on…come join the party, everything is ‘growing.’

“Where just yesterday it was reported that New Home Sales fell to only 284,000 one of the lowest numbers in modern history, and well below the previous month and expectations as well.  That’s because expectations are based on psyops, homes exist in reality.” – Nathan’s Economic Edge 2/25/11