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Confessions of a Former Bear

RobotTrader's picture




 

Well, it's official.

NYA clears to a new, 2-year high.  And a weekly close to boot.

Bears continue to get firehosed by the Infinite Fiat spewed forth by the "The Ben Bernank."

For those who constantly diss the 5 posters here who remain bullish on stocks, I present the following Xtranormal video which documents how I dropped my "Permabear" status back in 2004, and learned to follow the tape instead.

Furthermore, I retired in 2009 and started trading stocks for a living, which means I became a "Robot Trader", following the direction of the tape, which is essential to survival as a trader if you are engaged in it full time.

 

;

 

Now let's check out the market condition:

Financials have cleared to new highs for the move:

Retail stocks still strong:

Absolutely no reason to be bearish right now.

Anyone thinking we are near a market top with full retail participation?  I suggest you get a copy of Bill Fleckenstein's Mania Chronicles and read about the booming job market, ultra-strong economy, and wild-eyed fascination with stocks going on in 1999 - 2000.

We are nowhere near that.  People are still negative on stocks.

As long as we have this wall of worry, its all good for equity investors.

 

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Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:28 | 797036 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

I thought you said you got laid off from previous job. Now you say you retired. which is correct ?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:14 | 797108 Smu the Wonderhorse
Smu the Wonderhorse's picture

Wise man say, "Avoid trader who need sexy girl in column to keep readership."  After the next crash, I suppose we'll see "Confessions of a Former Former Bear."

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 20:23 | 797532 BigJim
BigJim's picture


Robot, I haven't been following your posts religiously, so I might be wrong about this... but you seem to post charts after prices go up.

How about telling us your trades beforehand, so we can establish their worth independently?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 20:52 | 797623 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Exactly. 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:22 | 797720 rocker
rocker's picture

@BigJim   I have followed him/her for a while now.  A few weeks ago Robo posted a group of charts of various stocks and after checking about 20 of them I logged, Robo is about 50/50 on them. So your premise may be right about after prices going up.  But, is Robo just suggesting that in general stocks are going up and you must pick them.

I have given this much consideration a few weeks ago and knowing how to read charts it has worked for me so far.  As the cartoon suggest, don't fight the FED.   I know I stopped shorting for now, and I am up.  Paid for Christmas and my new I-7 VAIO loaded laptop.

By the way, Robo also listed a lengthy list of commodity, (mostly gold and silver), stocks a few weeks ago and they are all up big.    What the hey I say.

Robo sure beats Robert Prechter's asshole call telling people to short the market, like he did in October and February of this year.   Both were terribly wrong.      And of note: Short interest is soaring again this week.  Maybe Prechter should read his own shit about not following the herd.

 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:52 | 797797 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

I told everyone last week that the banks were going to rally.  Check.

I told everyone last week that JPM would somehow extricate itself from a short squeeze, and it did.  Check.

I told everyone last month that high tech stocks were leading, the Russell 2000 was leading, and many retail stocks were breaking out.  Therefore the market was not ready to top.  Check.

I told everyone last month to watch the Investor's Business Daily Top 100 list (chart link here:

http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=9567502 

And to watch these stocks when the market was correcting, and if they hold strong, then the overall tape was strong.  Check.

And last week, I told everyone that the sentiment over Europe was overblown, and that somebody was going to "make their year" buying IRE and AIB at the lows.  Check.

And I told everyone that it was suicidal to short leading stocks like CRM, LULU, AAPL, PCLN until they show signs of weakness.  Check.

And I told everyone that I sold XRT on Monday because it had a huge run, and if commodity prices take off, then the XRT will eventually get hit.  No check.  It closed  higher still today.


Fri, 12/10/2010 - 23:38 | 797998 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Most of the inflationists have not been bearish on stocks. Peter Schiff has never been bearish on stocks. Not even US stocks.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 23:42 | 798002 bbtrader
bbtrader's picture

Bank ETF rally has been a short squeeze initiated by the usual GS frontrunning - much of the volume has occurred on huge blocks in the first two hours the last few sessions.  It's fully bullish only if it completely takes out the downtrendline that it's currently trying to breach.  Also could be a huge head & shoulders top with the right shoulder forming now - look at a monthly chart and you will see the potential pattern there.

The banks have continued to lag and so there's obviously an effort to get them to perform.

Also, I'd like your opinion on the Nasdaq 100 - to me, it's showing signs of momentum and relative weakness.  I'm looking to short the NQ in the coming week or so.

And I'm quite partial to redheads so I must say nice head and shoulders and a very nice double top, very enjoyable to watch while I compose this with a shot of Wild Turkey 101.

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 02:26 | 798261 Dirtt
Dirtt's picture

He's not wrong.  But if your stable stuff only gets beaten by an 1800 spx # by virtue of getting out in late 2007 then the strategy is different.

Take care of the shit that matters.  Sustainability.  NOT SOLAR STOCKS or any other "story" that is pimped by Irvine/Newport Beach.

What do you lose by not trading the last four months?  What do you gain?  Better yet.  Why not get the ship in tip top shape order for the next big moves.  Even if the SPX hits 1500 the net positive on the homefront is more sustainability PLUS 300 SPX points.

If you are in gunslinging mode keep RT and the MB hotties in close proximity. 

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 05:33 | 798340 teotwawki
teotwawki's picture

http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/investing-basics/could-bullish-investo...

 

Investors intelligence bull-bear sentiment highest since May. Currently long the EDC but this kind of makes me say, "oh shit". At least I have a plan if I'm wrong. Here in Scottsdale Az. a trip to the mall or any restaurant gives one the impression that all is right with the world. Even overhearing people in restaurants talking about how the market is back up to where it was before the crash of '08 and how their 401k's have never been higher. I have one eye on the door.

 

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 21:24 | 800737 revenue_anticip...
revenue_anticipation_believer's picture

yes, money is imaginary, debt is optionally paid off, the middle class got really screwed in the USA and elsewhere in the Western World, the Banks do/did criminal things - and won't get prosecuted (until convenient)....and so forth.. 

BUT NOTHING IS OUT OF CONTROL, because someone (not the people who think they are in control - mere puppets...) someone IS IN CONTROL..

Meanwhile, there are some crumbs from the feeding table, available to feed on...in the stock market....housing at dirt cheap.. and so forth...

ASSUME that a future exists, we are all gonna die anyway, so be optimistic while still in this life...in the end we all lose

Robo ACTUALLY has worked in the SYSTEM, the BEAST...he knows WHAT and HOW to get some of those 'crumbs off the table'....

interesting that he is using Investors business Daily...simply because MR MARKET 2010 is entirely technical, and no wonder..... there is no credible estimate of the NPV of anything....the future scenario is for sure,

DIFFERENT.

long lived assets, many of them, like the old STEEL were worthless long before being shut down..

so FUNDAMENTALS = NPV valuation, future expectations are 'worthless', at this particular time hence the IBD concept of technicals, growth, growth and more growth as the criteria...makes sense...where NPV does not make sense, anymore.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:50 | 797109 Astute Investor
Astute Investor's picture

"Retired" is the 21st century euphemism for fired / laid-off, etc.  The term "retired" is particularly popular with the trader / banker set especially those with seniority.  Too embarassing to tell your peeps at the club that you got shit-canned.

Perception = RobotTrader "retired" from his previous job so he could follow his dreams of running his own proprietary trading firm.

Reality =  After getting axed from Firm X, no other employers were hiring so RobotTrader became a retail, day-trader.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:06 | 797174 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

I got fired from a couple of jobs too.   So what if robot got canned?  That is called an ad hominem attack by the way.  How about some data to back up your beliefs that Robo is wrong.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 20:50 | 797616 Fritz
Fritz's picture

Robo has been spot-on virtually all year with his direction thoughts.

Sadly, the comment section on ZH has morphed into an armageddon bunker.

Its too bad because the ZH articles are the best on the web.

There used to be a lot of thoughtful dialog exchanged in the comment section about all markets. Now it's largely devolved into a stale one-liner kubuki theatre titled "gold bitchezz".

Many of the perma-screechers here simply repeat the same comments day after day. They know absolutely nothing about trading markets and take offense to any opinion that differs from their own. They are retail traders - pure comedy gold.

Great video Robot - always glad to read your market comments.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:19 | 797713 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

A thoughtful comment from a long-time member. I respectfully disagree to certain elements:

1. Robo generally posts charts selectively and after the fact, with a glib comment or two. He'll post a chart of LULU up 10% and talk about how retail sales are great, but not post the same day chart of TLB down the same %. You certainly could make a comment about mo-mo traders, but not necessarily extrapolate retail sales in general. He also picks time frame that fit his comment. Just today he discussed COF as being close to the highs, but it's flat YTD, off the April highs, dead money for 15 months, and way off 2007 highs. So, the comment didn't fit the chart.

2. Similarly, stock prices are not the economy. Just because a stock gets pumped 10% on BTE earnings, doesn't mean the economy is booming.

3. Over the summer, he admitted he had a few dividend stocks and a couple of other trades, but he posted charts of the "pop" of the day. Again, that's not analysis per se. It's a drive-by comment. Notice that he's not on his own comment thread, furthering the discussion. Leo does this, often to good effect.

4. I agree that the comment section can sometimes be repetitive - guilty as charged. I enjoy diversity of analysis, but given the Harry has been outed as a professional troll, and many of the other "bulls" seem to repeat the same mantra (don't fight the Fed), I don't see any real analysis from the bulls either. And then the bulls will always argue that a huge 2010 move in stocks has been missed. The SPY is up 11%. Silver and gold, a constant meme of the comment section have handily beat them.

I subscribed to the WSJ for 20+ years. I admired Gekko, used to be an S&P500 pit trader. I was a Believer. Over the past two years, I've become ultimately disgusted with the state of our nation and the monetary PTB. I believe the system is performing exactly as expected and planned - to rob the middle class for the benefit of the Elites. To me, any participation in the FIRE economy simply feeds the beast. I no longer use FRN's as a judge of success or happiness. I'd gladly see my gold and silver be cut in half if I felt a new economic system would be put into place.

I'm glad the site has largely moved from technical market/trading discussions to wider political economic questions. I think most ZH'ers believe there is no "market" any more. How can you discuss it? It's then all just about guessing what the politicians, FinMins, and CB's will do. That's not trading or even investing, IMHO. I'd rather go to Vegas, with known odds, free drinks, and comps if I play a lot.

Cheers. 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:47 | 797780 akak
akak's picture

TraderJoe, thank you for that thoughtful, insightful comment.  And my opinions mirror your own in all details.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:55 | 797807 piceridu
piceridu's picture

Very well said Trader J

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 23:56 | 798029 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

+++

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 01:09 | 798124 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

Disagree with that. Robot has consistently called the directional play reversing shorts and getting long from Aug 31.

It's a correlated market with the USD as the reserve currency so simple logic of debasing the dollar implies whatever is priced in USD must move higher against it.

Debasing may be right or it may be imoral and the work of devil jujumen, but that is another argument beyond trading and being on the right side of price discovery.

It is not rocket science.

And, David Rosenberg warned last year that the US was likely to use dollar devaluation as policy lever in the runnup to mid terms.

As a recent example in the last 10-14 days Robot called support for the S&P at the 1175/70 area with a probable break higher over 1200, and just to add insult to injury if the index topped 1225 the bears were in real trouble.

Pretty simple long trade with a stop just below, and easy to manage risk.

What more do you want besides the girl in the flic to also be your babysitter?

If the technical analysts were so brilliant then why all of the fatal top picking mistakes from 10,200 on the Dow on up?

It's obvious a lot of people have missed the boat from being too hungup on dogma.

My impression is that there is a lot of sound bite 'opinion' around here, but a scarcity of informed depth, especially of the informed/experienced trading views kind which Robot brings in spades.

Cannot wait to hear from the junkers when Robot gets short again........which may be sooner than later.

 

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 06:30 | 798358 SamuelMaverick
SamuelMaverick's picture

Well said. At least at a casino you know the games exist to separate you from your money, and the casino at least gives you some 'free' drinks and some eye candy in return. 

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 08:00 | 798377 johny2
johny2's picture

very +

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:25 | 797727 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Have any politicians done anything to reform the financial landscape?  They haven't even cut the rate of spending increase(s), let alone turned it around!

If RoboTrader is fed up with fighting the tape/Fed and wants to make more FRN's, then by all means the freedom to do so is still there.  I for one, refuse to participate in a rigged casino:  My principles and sanity won't allow it.  Remember though, that willing participants are helping to prop up the system as it exists and are NOT helping to reform the system, which is why RoboTrader has a lot of disagreement pointed at him/her.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 23:25 | 797976 pomogranate
pomogranate's picture

"refuse to participate in a rigged casino" is just another way of saying you're not capable.  if you know the game so well, then you could exploit it to your advantage. 

really, this is just an excuse.

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 00:30 | 798108 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@ pomogranate

"refuse to participate in a rigged casino" is just another way of saying you're not capable. 

Pics or GTFO.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 23:21 | 797966 pomogranate
pomogranate's picture

yes, "back in the day" ... before the site had it's own .com address, people commenting actually seemed to put spme thought into it.

Now ... my conclusion is that 99% of them are idiots who are either the long-term unemployed / unemployable AND/OR were stupid enough to have lost big money in late '08 - early '09 and are now incurably bitter over having missed the move up from there.

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 00:42 | 798130 Cursive
Cursive's picture

 

pomogranate History
Member for
10 weeks 3 days
"Back in the day?"  Are you for real?  OK, maybe you were a long-time lurker.  Well, I've been here since the blogspot days and you can disabuse yourself of any notions that ZeroHedge was/is a trading site.  You want a trading site?  Go to SOH or ES or Daneric's.  ZeroHedge has always had a reform/activist angle.  Why do you think Tyler (or the Tylers) constantly implore people to stay out of the equity markets?  You can't seriously say you read ZeroHedge and not acknowledge that.  Perhaps you are too new to remember Project Mayhem?  On a final note, I have no problems with Robo and I remember the days when he would post frequently and used to actually waste his time explaining that he didn't agree with bulltards, he just wanted to make money.  I know he is a disciple of Rasputin and he disagrees with where this country is/is heading.  I do think he would be more useful and influential if he posted a regular column.

 

 

 

 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 23:36 | 797990 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

He sold Krugerands under $1100.

No inflationists are bearish on stocks. Peter Schiff has never been bearish on stocks, that is why he had a bad 2008 but so did warren Buffet.

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 03:22 | 798292 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

An inflationist with even half a brain would be bearish on stocks in real terms.

Actually Peter Sniff was bearish on US equities..2006 and 2007...then got wiped out in '08 when the market actually did start to melt down.

I called Europacific in June of '08 for a good laugh and was told my money would be invested in Canadian oil funds and European/Chinese shares.

 

 

 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:22 | 797721 CD
CD's picture

Robot's had quite a good run of creative market commentaries; he just hasn't had time or heart to post recently:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/typical-options-expiration-maniacal-trading

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/wall-street-animal-spirits-stampede-across-river

 

Yes, often after the fact, gratuitous, hyperbolic -- but most often funny & observant. So he deals with the paradox by mocking the system. We all got coping mechanisms.

But others have  a point - the search mechanism is not exactly easy here on ZH. Tip: use Google advanced search, type in quotes "Submitted by RobotTrader", search only the domain ZH:

http://www.google.com/search?q=%22Submitted+by+RobotTrader%22+site:zerohedge.com&hl=en&num=10&lr=&ft=i&cr=&safe=off&tbs=

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 00:22 | 798081 Astute Investor
Astute Investor's picture

Nothing in my comments resemble an ad hominem attack nor was I opining on people who have been laid-off.  It was simply a request for truth in advertising.

Even Robo's comment below - "I was laid-off.  And luckily was in a position to retire." - comes off as some kind of marketing spin.  This is either an (A) or (B) choice unless you construe traditional retirement and forced retirement to be one in the same.

Why is telling the truth so abhorrent today?  Why not just say I got laid-off, but fortunately I saved some bucks over the years which will give me financial flexibility so I can wait for the right opportunity when it presents itself down the road.

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 14:59 | 798509 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

So what if robot got canned?  That is called an ad hominem attack by the way. 

 

Part of the game is to know how to market oneself.

After reading the various comments caused by a line from the article:

version a: the author of the article got the boot, failed to find a new job and had to turn to day trading out of necessity.

version b(the one broadcast by the article): during an economic downturn, the author early retired and chose to turn to day trading to make a living.

Both versions do not share the same marketing value.

B strongly suggests that the author worked a job allowing him to access to an early retirement. Meaning that he did well enough  to afford this move.

This during an economic downturn. Which suggests that the new activity was appealing enough to push somebody doing already well to quit one's job in spite of troubled days.

This of course conditioned the perception of every other piece of information given by the author about the possibilities one can reach through day trading.

Version a is less rosy and might picture the reverse. Troubled days, a guy who had no other option than to rely on day trading to make it... Not a long way from his judgement being biased strongly in favour of his last chance in life.

Absolutely not an ad hominem. Just  valuable information on a  possible marketing scheme led by the author.

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 05:20 | 798337 vxpatel
vxpatel's picture

Astute,

You have unresolved father issues, this is apparent in your need to work for a large firm. Want the name of a good doctor? Cut back on the pharmaceutical$, they only prolong the infantile pain you are harboring. It's a big world out there, you don't have to work for a firm. Who cares if he was fired/canned/surfingporn/EVP/AVP none of that matters...

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 09:15 | 798409 Astute Investor
Astute Investor's picture

Fortunately, through prudence, hard-work and good fortune my financial future is 100% secure under ANY scenario so I suffer no pain nor need meds of any kind.  Nothing in my comments advocates or discredits any type of firm, job or employment status nor did I make any judgement about what people do with their time.  The thrust of my comment was the inability of people to be honest and tell the truth.  Sadly, it's almost pathological today and it's everywhere.  Junk away if you find honesty that repugnant.

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 23:21 | 878234 igorski12345
igorski12345's picture

brilliant and acute observation. I, myself is guilty of the attitude you ascribe to "sinior" ( 18 years ) people. Thanks to your comment I would never do that again.

BRILLIANT. thanks.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:56 | 797142 SMG
SMG's picture

This place is loaded with paid influence agents lately, these avatars are fabrications, that's why the person or persons behind them can't keep their story straight.  I would say ban them, but the great thing about this site is the freedom it provides it's posters. I think this site is worth fighting to protect. So it's up to the legitimate posters to keep pointing out the paid shills like RobotTrader, HarryWanger, and lately toothias.  It could really just be one or two  paid people behind them all.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:08 | 797158 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Exactly. Theres not an ounce of truth in pumpmonkey RoboTrader and I hope all his followers get imploded. QE POMO in perpetuity as an investment model is simply retarded.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:19 | 797212 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

I don't hope or care for any particular outcome.  I have no ego in my investment strategies.  If I am wrong no big deal.   I will quickly change my opinion and strategies.  Holding on to a losing position because you have ego invested in the outcome is dangerous.  Sheep dog if you have a big position in gold and silver it's possible you may come out better than those of us who have smaller gold and silver positions, but it's not guaranteed.  At least listen to the loyal opposition with an open mind.   I do think there are a lot of people who post who are not traders or investors and don't really have enough gold and silver to worry about.  Investors have no ego in their beliefs.  You sir clearly have an ego investment in the outcome of this game.  It may bias you.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 23:16 | 797941 Nostradumbass
Nostradumbass's picture

What do we KNOW?

Really.

Negating is the path that brings truth best...

Not I Am This etc...

Rather I Am not this etc.

Winnow away friends...find the kernel of you...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 23:41 | 798005 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Robo is right but for the wrong reasons.

people want out of the dollar and fiat currencies in general. that is the reason for the stock market run. not a good economy like he thinks.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 20:29 | 797557 chet
chet's picture

"This place is loaded with paid influence agents lately"

Robo has been here longer than 95% of us.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:07 | 797670 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

If you know Robot is a paid informer then can you send me his address so I can subscribe?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:16 | 797705 AmericaRacket
AmericaRacket's picture

It's not prudent to dismiss those who dissagree with your position as being paid shills.  You'd be surprised how many amoral skanks there are in the finance community.  These are the people who followed the prison stocks (The money is in prisons!) and all sorts of evil schemes for fast money.  TBTB understand that the financial community has a disproportionately high % of sociopathic greed freaks, and that is why they corrupt  the incentive structures so that they can get the run of the mill specialists in the game with them.  Without these pawns, none of their schemes would work.

PMs have excellent fundamentals behind them and are accessible to everyone.  You don't need inside info and you don't need to be a whore.  And they've done just as well as any stock strategy you care to name.  It really is that simple.  PMs are a counterweight to what the Bernank is trying to do.  When you print money to prop stock prices and deliver inside info to frontrunners in a spectacular act of larceny, PMs will hurt you and offer the outsider a chance to get in on the game. Why delude yourself into thinking you are a master of the Universe by putting your money in stocks and pretending to be an insider?  Why profit from evil when you could instead profit from its disgrace?

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 05:20 | 798338 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Beautiful post, thank you!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:00 | 797156 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

I did get laid off.  And luckily I was in a position to retire.  I've been working on some due diligence stints for several vulture funds trying to pick up distressed banks.

In fact one of those vultures has successfully obtained a new bank charter and they are putting on the full court press to hire me full time in January.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:09 | 797179 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

I junk you too as a salute!  A diversity of opinion necessary to avoid group think.  I suspect most of the posters are not traders or true investors, but people looking for escapist literature and secretly wanting this unfair system to crash.  Real investors and traders don't junk, except as a compliment!  You guys really can't be serious about these posts being paid shills?  If I am wrong I have tight stops and a few puts.  I won't be angry if I am wrong.  It appears that some of robo's detractors will be angry if their investment thesis doesn't come to fruition.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:27 | 797234 prophet
prophet's picture

"A world of different voices, where freedom speaks"

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:31 | 797243 AUD
AUD's picture

Many people posting here just have no understanding of the money markets. Nor it seems do they wish to understand.

 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:35 | 797251 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

I think you are right.  It is sad that many of the real investors and traders don't bother to post any more.  It's a bunch of unemployed whiners and armchair anarchists looking for an escape that post here now.  I know real traders and investors when I see them, or read them!  Go back to LATOC you Mountain House Dried Food boys!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:47 | 797286 AUD
AUD's picture

"armchair anarchists"

Ha, I like that one. While I hold some gold miner stocks & a pile of the real stuff, I wouldn't call myself a trader or even an investor. I have spent countless hours in recent years in an effort to actually understand the 'nature' of money & the markets.

Here's an idea for the 'armchair anarchists', go back & watch Fight Club. You might learn a thing or two about mayhem. Then get yourself a copy of Schrodinger's Cat Trilogy by Robert Anton Wilson.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 19:08 | 797337 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Spoken from a member for 1 week and 19 hours. 

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 05:51 | 798346 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

A short (time) member, after all :-)

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 19:15 | 797360 Kayman
Kayman's picture

BiDick,Jr.

And this from a guy who complained about ad hominem attacks !  Go to the corner and take your eenie weenie with you.

Full disclosure- I sell a commodity, I do not trade paper.

It seems the entire investing platform you follow, along with Robot and Greeksex, is do not bet against the Fed.  While this has some historic support, the Fed (in the past) always had the world's largest creditor nation to back it. Now it is the world's largest debtor nation.

I don't know anymore than anyone else if the Bernank's all-in bet will work. But I do know that if it doesn't there will not be a gentle landing.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:36 | 797754 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Precisely!  There will be NO orderly exchange of casino chips for anything with real value.  The revolution will not be televised because the MSM will be burning to the ground, along with everything else.

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 05:27 | 798339 Treason Season
Treason Season's picture

Unjunked

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 19:13 | 797356 2028
2028's picture

Here is the plan laid out 30 years ago. You can bet by 2018 there will be no currency called the US dollar. These guys running things put out an article like this tongue and cheek and laugh when they implement and the chaos that follows. Sick basturds.

COVER: "GET READY FOR A WORLD CURRENCY"
Title of article: Get Ready for the Phoenix
Source: Economist; 01/9/88, Vol. 306, pp 9-10

THIRTY years from now, Americans, Japanese, Europeans, and people in many other rich countries, and some relatively poor ones will probably be paying for their shopping with the same currency.  Prices will be quoted not in dollars, yen or D-marks but in, let's say, the phoenix.  The phoenix will be favoured by companies and shoppers because it will be more convenient than today's national currencies, which by then will seem a quaint cause of much disruption to economic life in the last twentieth century.

            At the beginning of 1988 this appears an outlandish prediction.  Proposals for eventual monetary union proliferated five and ten years ago, but they hardly envisaged the setbacks of 1987. The governments of the big economies tried to move an inch or two towards a more managed system of exchange rates - a logical preliminary, it might seem, to radical monetary reform.  For lack of co-operation in their underlying economic policies they bungled it horribly, and provoked the rise in interest rates that brought on the stock market crash of October.  These events have chastened exchange-rate reformers.  The market crash taught them that the pretence of policy co-operation can be worse than nothing, and that until real co-operation is feasible (i.e., until governments surrender some economic sovereignty) further attempts to peg currencies will flounder.

             But in spite of all the trouble governments have in reaching and (harder still) sticking to international agreements about macroeconomic policy, the conviction is growing that exchange rates cannot be left to themselves. Remember that the Louvre accord and its predecessor, the Plaza agreement of September 1985, were emergency measures to deal with a crisis of currency instability.  Between 1983 and 1985 the dollar rose by 34% against the currencies of America's trading partners; since then it has fallen by 42%.  Such changes have skewed the pattern of international comparative advantage more drastically in four years than underlying economic forces might do in a whole generation.

            In the past few days the world's main central banks, fearing another dollar collapse, have again jointly intervened in the currency markets (see page 62).  Market-loving ministers such as Britain's Mr. Nigel Lawson have been converted to the cause of exchange-rate stability.  Japanese officials take seriously he idea of EMS-like schemes for the main industrial economies.  Regardless of the Louvre's embarrassing failure, the conviction remains that something must be done about exchange rates.

            Something will be, almost certainly in the course of 1988.  And not long after the next currency agreement is signed it will go the same way as the last one.  It will collapse.  Governments are far from ready to subordinate their domestic objectives to the goal of international stability.  Several more big exchange-rate upsets, a few more stockmarket crashes and probably a slump or two will be needed before politicians are willing to face squarely up to that choice.  This points to a muddled sequence of emergency followed by a patch-up followed by emergency, stretching out far beyond 2018 - except for two things.  As time passes, the damage caused by currency instability is gradually going to mount; and the very tends that will make it mount are making the utopia of monetary union feasible. 

The new world economy

The biggest change in the world economy since the early 1970's is that flows of money have replaced trade in goods as the force that drives exchange rates.  as a result of the relentless integration of the world's financial markets, differences in national economic policies can disturb interest rates (or expectations of future interest rates) only slightly, yet still call forth huge transfers of financial assets from one country to another.  These transfers swamp the flow of trade revenues in their effect on the demand and supply for different currencies, and hence in their effect on exchange rates.  As telecommunications technology continues to advance, these transactions will be cheaper and faster still.  With unco-ordinated economic policies, currencies can get only more volatile.

            Alongside that trend is another - of ever-expanding opportunities for international trade.  This too is the gift of advancing technology.   Falling transport costs will make it easier for countries thousands of miles apart to compete in each others' markets.  The law of one price (that a good should cost the same everywhere, once prices are converted into a single currency) will increasingly assert itself.  Politicians permitting, national economies will follow their financial markets - becoming ever more open to the outside world.  This will apply to labour as much as to goods, partly thorough migration but also through technology's ability to separate the worker form the point at which he delivers his labour.  Indian computer operators will be processing New Yorkers' paychecks.

            In all these ways national economic boundaries are slowly dissolving.  As the trend continues, the appeal of a currency union across at least the main industrial countries will seem irresistible to everybody except foreign-exchange traders and governments.  In the phoenix zone, economic adjustment to shifts in relative prices would happen smoothly and automatically, rather as it does today between different regions within large economies (a brief on pages 74-75 explains how.)  The absence of all currency risk would spur trade, investment and employment.

            The phoenix zone would impose tight constraints on national governments.  There would be no such thing, for instance, as a national monetary policy.  The world phoenix supply would be fixed by a new central bank, descended perhaps from the IMF.  The world inflation rate - and hence, within narrow margins, each national inflation rate- would be in its charge.  Each country could use taxes and public spending to offset temporary falls in demand, but it would have to borrow rather than print money to finance its budget deficit.  With no recourse to the inflation tax, governments and their creditors would be forced to judge their borrowing and lending plans more carefully than they do today. This means a big loss of economic sovereignty, but the trends that make the phoenix so appealing are taking that sovereignty away in any case. Even in a world of more-or-less floating exchange rates, individual governments have seen their policy independence checked by an unfriendly outside world.

            As the next century approaches, the natural forces that are pushing the world towards economic integration will offer governments a broad choice.  They can go with the flow, or they can build barricades.  Preparing the way for the phoenix will mean fewer pretended agreements on policy and more real ones.  It will mean allowing and then actively promoting the private-sector use of an international money alongside existing national monies.  That would let people vote with their wallets for the eventual move to full currency union.  The phoenix would probably start as a cocktail of national currencies, just as the Special Drawing Right is today.  In time, though, its value against national currencies would cease to matter, because people would choose it for its convenience and the stability of its purchasing power.

            The alternative - to preserve policymaking autonomy- would involve a new proliferation of truly draconian controls on trade and capital flows.  This course offers governments a splendid time.  They could manage exchange-rate movements, deploy monetary and fiscal policy without inhibition, and tackle the resulting bursts of inflation with prices and incomes polices.  It is a growth-crippling prospect.  Pencil in the phoenix for around 2018, and welcome it when it comes.

  
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Fri, 12/10/2010 - 19:30 | 797404 Kayman
Kayman's picture

World Currency will NEVER happen. Look to the PIIGS.  No other countries will be straight-jacketed on the way to the slaughter.

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 01:57 | 798232 i-dog
i-dog's picture

Nice propaganda piece by the official organ of the Bilderbergers and the NWO. Just because they want it, doesn't mean it will happen.

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 21:36 | 800754 revenue_anticip...
revenue_anticipation_believer's picture

Economist 1988, 23 years ago....""Bilderbergers and the NWO. Just because they want it, doesn't mean it will happen.""

year is now 2011  but, you see IT DID HAPPEN...and yes they ARE in control, GET USED TO IT

 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:21 | 797214 Astute Investor
Astute Investor's picture

How does expertise in technical analysis translate into success in distressed investing?  I don't remember Howard Marks, Marc Lasry, et al utilizing TA in their investment process.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:29 | 797240 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

it depends on your definition of distressed investing.  Macro and technical trends can help you but fundamental value is obviously the key. If technical indicators are grossly oversold for the sector it might just give you a little more juice to make the deal at that time for a specific asset.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 19:10 | 797340 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

I've never heard a distressed investor discuss technical trends in any context.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 20:35 | 797572 Rainman
Rainman's picture

......but a depressed investor, yes, many times.

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 21:48 | 800766 revenue_anticip...
revenue_anticipation_believer's picture

""How does expertise in technical analysis translate into success in distressed investing""  IT DOESN'T, BUFFET BOUGHT 'VALUE' 'DISTRESSED' ETC...and made a joke of technical analysis, correctly from his long term viewpoint...

when the Political Economic World Structure is statistically (measure-wise) stationary....long term bets, long term investments, construction, can be justified "Engineering Economics"....However, since at least 2006 onward, some major internal STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED...the Sept 2008 was a result, not a cause...currently the CHANGES are still occurring and nobody knows WELL ENOUGH to make any long term industrial expansions, to borrow money to finance WHAT...

For the moment, Mr Market is clearly 'controlled' and has the Bernake put, too..and the movement is high risk, hedged FOR YOU...TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, not fundamentals is the way to go...for now...


Fri, 12/10/2010 - 19:09 | 797336 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

"Bears continue to get firehosed by the Infinite Fiat spewed forth by the 'The Ben Bernank.'"

I don't know how all the other bears are doing, but my bear-inspired PM investments are kicking some serious ass right now.  Last time I checked I was beating both the Dow and S&P too. 

No regrets, baby!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 20:03 | 797488 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Robot, I haven't been following your posts religiously so I might be wrong about this... but you seem to post charts after prices go up.

How about telling us your trades beforehand, so we can establish their worth independently?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 22:19 | 797857 Ludwig Van
Ludwig Van's picture

 

In all fairness to the 'bot, and as a for-instance, a week or so ago he posted a chart of KRE creeping up to 24, which he cited as the pivot. Above go long, below short. I took note because I also recognized the KRE as a striking market tell -- once he pointed it out.

He does that a lot, thinks aloud on the board, and sometimes he brags (rightly if unempathetically). If that's what you're junking, okay. I've found his posts to be a helluva sentiment elicitor, and I'm glad he's got a thick skin. His posts have value that would be missed with his absence.

 

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 02:38 | 798268 KTV Escort
KTV Escort's picture

good point on the thick skin, to his credit he rarely, if ever, gets defensive or pissy

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 20:32 | 797564 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Best of luck Robo getting the new gig...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:02 | 797647 gangland
gangland's picture

so you admit you're a vulture. actually, I 'll answer that myself, you have admitted that in the past so it ain't no thang.  big ups bro.  I was you tho? I'd buy a ccp and a vest to boot. ; ) nice tits.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:44 | 797777 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Vultures serve a useful purpose, leeches -- not so much.

If I thought I could live with myself, I too would be "investing" in all the stocks that are rising to ridiculous P/E ratios (heavy emphasis on the 'P').  I would rather see the current system brought down, explosively if necessary, in order to restore Freedom and righteuosness for my Children, and my children's children.  I hold no illusions that I will survive long enough to see the other side, given the number of people, such as RoboTrader, that are selling out and supporting the current system.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 22:16 | 797840 gangland
gangland's picture

I absolutely agree, some leeches though smack you in the face w/ their blood sucking, and those are ones, I cannot stand, you'd think if they were that smart......they'd stfu! but see? obviously...it ain't about smarts...feel me? yeah i know you do. i generally don't fellate statists, but bernie sanders, the old man, today, he deserves a bow.

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 04:27 | 799816 RichardP
RichardP's picture

No matter how many sell out and support the current system, isn't the system ultimately driven by people buying things?  If demand does not return to previous levels, how long can the system fake being at previous levels before the lack of cash flow brings it down?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:42 | 797773 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

   "Absolutely no reason to be bearish right now"

      There are Trillions of reasons to be bearish right now, that does not mean the fucking market "riggers" won't push on for a while longer.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:58 | 797811 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

The market can reverse any day.  But until that day, I remain long.

And the market always gives warning signs that it is going to roll over, usually the retail and financial stocks start rolling over first.

That is not happening now.

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 00:09 | 798064 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Yeah, like 3 hidenberg omens in 4 months.

You are right about the rally for the wrong reasons. People want out of fiat, stocks are real. I am fully invested in gold stocks, ICI up 21% today.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:42 | 797038 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

One reason to be bearish: unemployment.  Another, a bunch of goons have hijacked Washington and do whatever they wish to finance.  Another, peak oil, and this should be everyone's main concern.  Another, peak gold.  Why is this important?  Well why does every single central bank hold vaults of it?  Gold is monie.

Robo, glad you are back posting.  Have you bough SLW yet?  ABX?  HES?  CAT?  NFLX?  Looks like the stocks I recomended to you and your five freinds last winter have made retruns that would have Soros blushing.  You took my advice, right?  After all, this is a corporate takeover, so people like you might as well latch on for the ride.

Dow Jones 12,000:

http://lhmarketwatch.blogspot.com/2010/12/dow-jones-12000.html

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:03 | 797171 LiquidBrick
LiquidBrick's picture

One reason to be bearish: unemployment. 

Maybe you didn't get the memo?  Here it is:  "Buy the f'ing dip!"

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:32 | 797245 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

the goons have hijacked washington.  They said buy the dip bitchez.  So what are you going to do?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:54 | 797307 B9K9
B9K9's picture

I'll let you guys in on a little secret: it ain't working. Some of largest swathes of vacant retail stores are in Newport Beach. Fucking believe it.

Secondly, many of the beach cities set aside summer parking lots for RV 'camping' during the winter. And these ain't the el cheapo RVs of summer family vacations either. Nope, these are mostly million dollar rigs, complete with brand new tow-along Jeeps, and satellite hook-ups for TV, Web, etc.

Anyway, the point is that these overnight, full hook-up lots are fucking empty. In as many years as I can remember, they were always full. But now it's freakin' spooky. Oh, you'll see a couple here/there, but overall it's a ghost town.

OTOH, the number of old jalopy bandit RVs (being used for housing) hanging out in the remaining day use lots (all vehicles have to vacate each night) is growing by leaps & bounds.

We are getting ready for stage 2.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 19:11 | 797348 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Washington State is having a one day special legislative session this weekend to cut $900 million from its budget through this June. 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:48 | 797782 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Several orders of magnitude too small, and decades too late -- oh well, that Govt. "efficiency" for you! :(

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 20:27 | 797546 TemporalFlashback
TemporalFlashback's picture

PIMCO is not doing their part in keeping Fashion Island afloat.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:29 | 797739 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

From what I see you are correct,I travel alot and places that were booked solid are ghost towns,as to empty retail I have seen acres and acres of it in Kansas just last week. Massive empty, other than a couple of old people doing their miles you could have unload a shotgun in any direction and  not hit anything.

 

I was in on the ground floor of a couple of groups that built these things and these were cash cows. Now, dead cows.

 

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 21:59 | 800784 revenue_anticip...
revenue_anticipation_believer's picture

PIMCO is using the term 'new normal' as short hand for its investment strategy....and that 'NEW NORMAL' is transiently-permanent, so far as the OLD NORMAL is dead dead dead...

Ghost Towns, YES, just as California, Nevada, Arizona, 1860-1885 many fully built up towns, with multistory buildings...related to the Gold Rush/Silver Rush...now Tourist Attractions

Now THE NEW NORMAL means  Ghost Towns 2010-2020, are forming, AND THEY WILL NOT GET BETTER....forget Pittsburg as the shining counter example...it was literally 'recolonized' by 'back easterners' seeing a new 'Art Town - USA'....they moved in as the Blue Collars moved out....

 

 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:39 | 797046 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

I dropped my armageddon groove 10-11 months ago. Tried it again with VXX as you went bullish in aug, I was monkeyhammered. Never again.

The video is 1000% correct.

I thing this china stock (JOBS) is going to be huge in 5 years. Pull up a 1 year chart.

Also ....HOLI,AMCN,CAST .... So, so many. Im not a chart guy really I follow the herd but also research all ADR's and try to judge a long term play.

China is like the USA in the 40's....

 

I have not started yet on india small cap's, but soon.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:41 | 797081 Trader Joe
Trader Joe's picture

You want to win trading VXX?

Just buy short dated NTM puts everytime it rallies

Biggest POS out there other than UNG

If you want to trade the VIX, then trade the VIX....VXX is garbagio

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:14 | 797141 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

I am teaching myself how to trade. The first 4 months I lost 1/3rd off panic selling on bad news. The last 3 months made it all back, now hitting overdrive. Made a ton off a 50 cent gold miner ...

 

I'm coming at this with way more knowledge in regards to macro ect ... I just read thats it..( And this helps when you can balance everything) train/truck traffic, seeing machine shops pickup,cat,auto sales(small)... was a green light for (us steel) - huge metal shortage with all the suppliers in the USA as far as steel... (Just told me yesterday - My bud owns a huge shop insider info- :-)US Steel will be booming moving forward.

Like China just announced a 1.5 trillion investment. Great info like this helps you trade if you want to buy and hold. IMO It all how you think about long term goals of China & India and who will benefit as far as businesses in that sector.

 

Do you have online resources as far as options/learning  ?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:51 | 797796 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

It's heartwarming to hear that the Robots are accomodating your greed too!

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 06:02 | 798351 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Yes. For online resources start with Google (http://www.google.us in case you haven't heard of them), for books go to http://www.amazon.com.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:59 | 797152 Smu the Wonderhorse
Smu the Wonderhorse's picture

Garbage, agreed.  VXZ a bit better.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:14 | 797197 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

boy you are right about UNG.  I just recently started buying but have the sense to sell it every time it rallies five percent. Expiration is a bear.  No pun intended.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:30 | 797242 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Whoa...that's a scary avatar...what is it with people and their freaky-deaky clowns?  Gives me the heebee jeebees!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:52 | 797798 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Meh, we're ALL bozos on this bus!

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 01:21 | 798187 drwells
drwells's picture

Good to see you here TJ.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:02 | 797148 I Am The Unknow...
I Am The Unknown Comic's picture

...never thought I would be on the same trade as you Spalding, but indeed I too got F#ing hammered.  I'm still unwinding my long VXX positions.  I have come to believe it is being shorted as a way to manipulate the market higher.  Even when the VIX rises, the VXX falls.  If the VIX falls, the VXX falls disproportionately.  I believe this game will continue well into next year.     

As for Robo....all I can say is yes you are right and that capitulation sucks.  Thanks for the hottie video to help soften the blow.  

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:02 | 797164 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

:-) - I wish I could go back .....

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:22 | 797224 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

you sir are a real trader.  Nice to see a few of them on the site.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:26 | 797230 kornholio
kornholio's picture

china is nothing like the USA in the forties, buy a fucking history book and read it. We were in a WORLD WAR and its aftermath for nearly the whole decade. Where TF did you go to school...also china is a MERCANTILE style economy, we used to have a real capitalist one, many moons ago...and oh lets non forget the UNELECTED COMMUNIST governent. What they do is make cheap shit with slave labor, I can do without that kind of progress

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 19:16 | 797354 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Im speaking in terms of investment opportunity, thats it.

Like buying Coke, McD's,Berkshire, for pennys.

China,India will be world class in 10-15 years. Many great small caps to take advantage of this ...

Reading... thats all I do. TV long gone -

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:32 | 797744 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

Very naive.  Their ecological problems (lack of clean air and water) and huge populations/area mean one thing, massive medical costs.  Resources are the key to wealth-and China lacks fossil fuel and can barely feed itself.  It has massive food inflation which will lead to great social instablity.  And there's the lack of an independent judiciary.  Mexico has a better chance to thrive than China!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:38 | 797760 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

yep and don't doubt it if comes to a resource war they can't win they are not the big dog by a mile.

 

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 03:33 | 798303 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

Let's not forget that China is hopelessly dependant on never ending imports of US consumer manufactured hyperinflation just to maintain sub 2% margins and roughly 3/4 Chinese companies operate on zero profit and losses just to keep a billion or so people from starving to death. India is in it just as bad. 

Jesus Christ, 1940 makes this look like a goddamned stroll around the pond.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 23:24 | 797843 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Naive, no. We are doing the two step with China.... A balance.

I know about communism,all the npl's,whatever you want to talk about.ect..... I have posted many times blasting everything.

I'm taking advice ( on china ) from the head of global investment/william blair only spoke with him twice in person over the last 10 years. (my friends father) Huge China Bull.... He told me to buy oil in 1999 before Nasdaq crash. Very smart man. I did not listen.... Lol'

We have had many problems in america as far as pollution/corruption also. They are pumping engineers ect.... out of our country(education system) and taking that knowledge home. Its not going to happen overnight, like I said 10-15 years.

China has a deal with Iran for tons of oil/ they also purchase the rites to the largest oil field in Iraq. Look up the long term oil/gas pipeline play in Asia over the next 50 years.

They will crash soon yes but not like our credit bubble not the type of leverage in the system the people must put down 25% for a house. Many massive cities already. The high speed rail, green energy ... They are pumping trillions into infrastructure. They also have a massive pipeline bringing water north.....

 

 

 

.Monday, 06 Dec 2010...."It is reported that China State Council plans to invest USD 1.5 trillion over the next five years in seven emerging industries.

The seven industries include alternative energy, bio-technology, new generation information technology, high end equipment manufacturing, new materials, new energy vehicles and energy saving industries."....

 

What else do you want to talk about....?

 

-------------------------------------------------~

http://factsanddetails.com/china.php?itemid=391&catid=10&subcatid=66

About one third of the industrial waste water and more than 90 percent of household sewage in China is released into rivers and lakes without being treated. Nearly 80 percent of China's cities (278 of them) have no sewage treatment facilities and few have plans to build any and underground water supplies in 90 percent of the cites are contaminated.

Water shortages and water pollution in China are such a problem that the World Bank warns of “catastrophic consequences for future generations.” Half of China’s population lacks safe drinking water. Nearly two thirds of China’s rural population—more than 500 million people—use water contaminated by human and industrial waste

 

Walter Hutchens' Blog

China Financial Markets

http://chinesepolitics.blogspot.com/

China Hush

Pacific Epoch

Asia Business Intelligence
Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:36 | 797751 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

they are a black hole and mad gambling fiends.

 

the trade would be against them as everyone including the master trader and robo would be long to the max in them.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:35 | 797058 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Dow 12000 is only 600 points away meaning I will be down 50% down short ETFs by that time.
Win win...government gets to confiscate 50% less of my money...great hedge for my nonqualified options.

Y'all win...you were right but your traders...I'm not...

Robo...you are right!

There is my confession.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:40 | 797070 Trader Joe
Trader Joe's picture

RT - 

Congrats on the "early" retirement in '09

You'll do just fine trading for your own account, just remember that risk management is the key to survival, keep your position in any one "name" to 1-2% of total AUM

And have a blast with it!

You'll "work" more hours than you ever did in the corporate world, but be much happier

Also, you will eventually realize that you can usually "make your year" with just 3-5 properly diversified directional trades

Trader Joe

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:41 | 797077 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

So RobotTrader "Don't fight the Fed or the Wall Street Oligarchy"

Kind of like German Industrialist between 1928-45. The only way they could make money was to play ball with the Nazis. Why fight it they thought they run the show. Who cares about making money if you have to agree to the Devils terms.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:56 | 797143 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea this 'if ya cant beat him, join the devil' shit is what I guarantee all these people pontificate they'd never do at cocktail parties. Well when talking about Nazis and all that anyway...today theres 'money to be made'. And theyll have been complicit in similar attrocities when its all said and done. Well I hope their profits are worth it to them.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:40 | 797266 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

You better believe the profits are worth it to me.  IF Armageddon occurs I plan to be a feudal lord or at least a yoeman freeholder.  What will you be sir?  Dead?  Strung up for fighting the power?  By the way I call Godwin's law on your Nazi analogy.  We are a long way from nazification.  You would be a lot worse off in a deflationary depression. 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 19:12 | 797349 tallystick
tallystick's picture

You don't know how to apply Godwin's law. That's when you're saying something is as bad as the nazis, or comparing something to them.

You missed the point which is economic collapses tend to bring extremists into power.

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 11:00 | 798473 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Hope you got enough socked away to hire a small army of mercenaries to protect your dumbass fiefdom, or you're liable to end up like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yj4LnfkdJDM

Douche

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 05:57 | 798348 Treason Season
Treason Season's picture

Unjunked

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:45 | 797088 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

"there can be only one."  that's the lesson of 2008---the "mo mo monkeys" (I love that ZH'ism) pushed their banks beyond all reason and "left America with one bank."  The "Haters of the House of Morgan" demanded the Fed immediately turn their decimation of our economy into a victory (for themselves of course) and of course "they lost that, too." I've morphed to "opportunistic" from perma-bull.  All eyes on the debt markets for "bargains of a lifetime."  Needless to say "the blow up in that space without an inflationary ignition" has never occurred in modern American history.  (And I'm starting about 1890 as "modern.")  As we now have the "the data of Greece and Ireland" the "bankruptcy of state means it's borrowing needs SOAR" and not the other way around.  Well..."that means you gotta pay for that dip shit."  And of course "it's called a big, fat yield" and "given it's the United States" I consider that of potentially exceptional value.  As a former and still militant believer in our amazing Armed Forces I am more than confident that they will "do what needs doing" as the time for action fast approaches.  As with all bullish calls however "one must be selective."  I don't think anyone will accuse me of being anything but.  Reggie Middleton and yourself are the only ones I see as "being similarly selective."  Needless to say "it stands in opposition to those who say buy the whole market...or sell the whole market as well."  As it should of course.  As it should.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:45 | 797093 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

The drops will be flash crashes to scare the sheep back into the bond fold.  That is if/when they need you to be there to keep the govt carry going.   Nicely timed periodic foreign crises will keep the financial terrorism off our shores but if that quiver runs dry, watch out.

 

Anyone using fundaMENTAL analysis here is asking to get raped.  You must know which players are in the game at the moment and what are their intentions.   things change quickly which chases the retail much more out of the market. 

 

Unemployment is real.  the negative psychology is real.  Negative psychology is going to be real tough to turn around.  I don't see the retail investor going all in any time soon.    They only way they could get duped again en masse is out of FEAR and not greed.   FEAR that if they aren't in they won't be able to retire.   Greed was evident in the dot.com bubble.   People are fearful now, not greedy.  They are taking a survival bunker mentality.

 

I say there will be market volatility as the rest of the players duke it out, with the caveat being more and more stimulus/bailout money will make the stakes higher and higher.   

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:45 | 797096 DonutBoy
DonutBoy's picture

Robo - I like your cartoon - but the GIF's are better.  After 3 cycles I just don't care about stocks anymore...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:43 | 797274 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

that may mean you ought to go one more round?

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 08:03 | 798379 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Stocks?

This post was about stocks?

Let me scroll back up ;-)

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:47 | 797103 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Im happy to see all the 'former bears' around, surest sign ever the top is here and implosion of this scam is near. I hope youre all in Robo.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:53 | 797302 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

When the top is in I am guessing Robot will be looking to close longs and get short.........repeat the turn of Aug 31 except in the opposite direction.

What then SD-1?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:49 | 797112 AUD
AUD's picture

Do you follow the Federal Reserve Statistical releases RobotTrader?

The RBA releases its open market operations daily & other money & stock market data less frequently. While they don't supply every detail it is nonetheless very illuminating.

 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:46 | 797281 EB
EB's picture

Spread between the 30 day bank rate and discount is a gem.  Suggest one month MA, then shift one and two months to right.  Overlay on SPX.  

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:53 | 797303 AUD
AUD's picture

Do you have a web address for Fed statistical releases?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:53 | 797125 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Nice call a week ago on the banks! Maybe The Fed has finally patched the leak in the bank bubble. Remember when the tech stocks were measured by their "burn rate" of cash on hand? I'd think with all the POMO and TARP stuff they would be much higher, but at least they are no longer weaker than the S&P.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:53 | 797134 gerd
gerd's picture

The Ben Bernank as Colonel Jessup in A Few Good Men

http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/7933323/

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:54 | 797136 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

Robot trader there are now six if you have seen my posts for the last two days.  I have noticed that the people who get junked are not the dimwits spewing anarchist trash with an account at Mountain house.  The people who get junked are the ones who have an opinion different than consensus at zero hedge.  I propose that you me and wanger form the loyal opposition. There are actually more than six but they rarely post anymore and I miss them.  We need to avoid groupthink.  Diversity of opinion is welcome and necessary if an investor is going to make money.  I have noticed that a lot of people who post here are not really investors or even traders, but they are the ones junking you and wanger.  Ego has no place in investing.  Wishful thinking about a more fair and just world has no place in investing.  I use this site and other sites to gather information.  Thank you robo and wanger.  All your junks from poseurs and armchair anarchists should be a badge of honor.  For all of you worried that the world will end run really tight stops and buy puts.  You can also decide in advance how much volatility you are willing to tolerate by putting your portfolio through morningstar.  If you truly believe that hyperinflation is around the corner and you want a portfolio with real yield of five percent you can use quantitative analysis to model that portfolio, but moaning and bitching about how unfair the world is doesn't do any investor any good. 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:58 | 797150 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

and I love your babe shots!  Time to get a new keyboard.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:57 | 797149 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

You have a great feel for the market, RT, and I always enjoy your work. 

Alan Abelson, dean of the writers at Barrons, has been a bear since 2600 on the Dow.  I shit you not.  You can look it up.  The stocks he pans are mostly dogs, but the market shrugs it off, and keeps on climbing. 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:00 | 797151 Bob
Bob's picture

Thanks for coming out into the appropriate forum and making your case, robo.  Mocking everybody under cover in every fucking topic thread just doesn't seem right. 

There is clearly a bull case to be made here at ZH.  Or at least one we all need some help coming to terms with.  I hope you'll continue making it as a Contributor.  Balance is important. 

As to your trading success, yeah, POMO Rules, fer shure. 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:38 | 797259 B9K9
B9K9's picture

There is only one bull case, and that is whether or not there is sufficient energy available in which to generate the global 5%+ CAGR necessary to service the Ponzi.

Please note this isn't an observation on peak oil. Rather, it is completely agnositic as to source; it only speaks of net energy utilization.

Absent an announcement on some miraculous technological breakthrough (which would have me & many other bears heading towards ZH's exits), there is only printing.

Printing is fine in the short-term (look how it's bought us 2-3 years) if one can control the eventual inflation. Sadly, cold & hungry elderly, women & children are going to be the front-line troops in next stage of the battle.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 22:06 | 797831 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

I'm pretty sure that Josef Goebbels and Heinrich Himmler "Thought" they were on the right side at some point(s) in their lives as well -- just don't expect me to agree with an evil system in order to justify my own greed.  Notice how the various Govt's around the World are deciding that "Austerity" has to begin with making the lives of the poor and disenfranchised even more miserable?  Just how much Fiat is enough?  At least vampires are asleep for 12 hours each day.  Guess raping and pillaging will continue until the "peasants" start to like it as much as stock traders/investors.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:03 | 797169 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

and by the way for some extra beta I think brazil makes a nice kicker.  Little debt.  Lot's of spending and cleaning up before the Olympics.  No housing mortgage market (maybe two percent!), and those serfs work like dogs to give us their surplus labor, plus the natural resources of Russia.  China and India are going to be in a world of hurt in a peak oil, peak commodity future with global warming.  Brazil is the pessimists optimistic investment for the long term.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 22:04 | 797825 trav7777
trav7777's picture

agree on that one

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 08:22 | 798389 johny2
johny2's picture

It seems we have one thing we agree. I have invested in Brazil when it was still cheap, and i cant see anything except a climate disaster changing this trend.

I would not say they work like dogs but I don't even understand what working like dog means. 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:09 | 797178 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Yooooouuuuu oooooowemmmmme a new kkkkkkeybooooooard.  Sooooommmmmme kkkkkkeys are stiiiiiiickkkkkiiiiing froooooommmmm that giiiiiiif.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:09 | 797180 Eric The Red
Eric The Red's picture

How did you get video of my wife?  Thx

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:11 | 797184 omer10
omer10's picture

Robo, first time I read u as contributor, congrats. It is great because I tried to find your posts searching the current few pages since site's search function doesn't seem to work chronologically. And had to seep through all the BS rants written by always bearish crowd. I totally agree with your perspective, we should be following here to make  or preserve money, or lets say financial resources, hear different ideas, perspectives for it., It is fine if some people want to share what coins they are collecting, or rifles they buy, but what you are showing is something really useful to me. Please keep up the good work.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:52 | 797301 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

now there are seven.  Welcome to the club.  Neither bull nor bear am I.  I'm just here to make money.  Well, tonight wife is out and I'm just wanking on the keyboard between posts.  Nothing better to do.  Market is closed.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 22:09 | 797837 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

It bears repeating:

I'm pretty sure that Josef Goebbels and Heinrich Himmler "Thought" they were on the right side at some point(s) in their lives as well -- just don't expect me to agree with an evil system in order to justify my own greed.  Notice how the various Govt's around the World are deciding that "Austerity" has to begin with making the lives of the poor and disenfranchised even more miserable?  Just how much Fiat is enough?  At least vampires are asleep for 12 hours each day.  Guess raping and pillaging will continue until the "peasants" start to like it as much as stock traders/investors.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:11 | 797185 Violetta (not verified)
Violetta's picture

Robo, what you say about worry makes a lot of sense to me.  It seems like you are saying there are still a lot more bears out there who have yet to throw in the towel and join in. If there really is as much price fixing as you suggest in your video (thank god for these videos!) I doubt the market rally will end until most people have thrown in the towel and joined in.  The banksters will wait for a saturation point.  Then when they are convinced there are no more suckers to draw in, there will be a crash. 

Now I'm talking like a conspiracy theorist.  Uh  oh. Anyway.

I think the best thing to do is invest some money in stocks, but keep skimming off some profit into cash/art/gold as you make it.  A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:25 | 797193 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Guys what's the problem?  Robo knows what he is doing.  He knows it's a casino and he has a system to grind money out of it.  I look at it the same way I look at professional gambling, a noble profession that gets a bum rap.  Gambling for a living is hard work.  I did it for a little while (poker) and was consistently a winner but it was wearing on my nerves and eating up my entire life, and the losses punishing to both the bankroll painful and ego.  So I have a lot of respect for guys who do it for a living, a hard way to make easy money.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 19:04 | 797327 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

Guys what's the problem?  Robo knows what he is doing.  He knows it's a casino and he has a system to grind money out of it.

 

+1, Cheers.  I happy to see Robo having his own column again.

 

There is a difference between what should happen and what is happening.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 19:07 | 797334 Rainman
Rainman's picture

The best playerz....trading or poker....wipe clean their memory bank of previously dealt hands, win or lose.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 19:25 | 797391 still kicking
still kicking's picture

I think what most people have a problem with is that Robo and that dumbass Wanger don't post with caveats, such as these are short term trades, do not consider this a sound economy, just play the game and be prepared to get cornholed if you are not nimble enough to stay in front of it.  Instead they make it sound like some of these investments are the best idea ever and there are a lot of uneducated people that read that and think Ok, I will buy this retailer and hold it till I triple my money, they have no idea Robo is trading in and out of that bitch 5% at a time.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 19:53 | 797462 Violetta (not verified)
Violetta's picture

I'm one of those uneducated people!  Do you think there is any stock you can buy which is worth holding for a while?  or should you just plan on selling if hopefully it goes up by a certain percentage?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 22:47 | 797906 Ludwig Van
Ludwig Van's picture

 

Take a look at C.

 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 23:51 | 798021 Violetta (not verified)
Violetta's picture

thanks!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:04 | 797656 zice
zice's picture

RT's been calling it this way since I've joined zh. Why fault someone for cashing in on the print?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:18 | 797207 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

Hope to see you post a lot more as a contributor since for what it is worth I think your market and social insights are among the VERY best, not just at Zero Hedge either.

Junkers need to get a life and listen to the underlying Robot message which in a few words is about being on the right side of price discovery as opposed to popular opinion.

If you take that offer from the VF I hope you continue to write at least at ZH. Thanks again many x.

RoRo

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:54 | 797306 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

I agree junkers need to get a life.  I seriously doubt that robo has junked anyone he disagreed with.  Seriously why waste your time junking?

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 06:08 | 798354 Treason Season
Treason Season's picture

"...about being on the right side of price discovery ..."

 

If anything, very rich in irony.

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