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Confessions of a Former Bear
Well, it's official.
NYA clears to a new, 2-year high. And a weekly close to boot.
Bears continue to get firehosed by the Infinite Fiat spewed forth by the "The Ben Bernank."
For those who constantly diss the 5 posters here who remain bullish on stocks, I present the following Xtranormal video which documents how I dropped my "Permabear" status back in 2004, and learned to follow the tape instead.
Furthermore, I retired in 2009 and started trading stocks for a living, which means I became a "Robot Trader", following the direction of the tape, which is essential to survival as a trader if you are engaged in it full time.
;
Now let's check out the market condition:
Financials have cleared to new highs for the move:
Retail stocks still strong:
Absolutely no reason to be bearish right now.
Anyone thinking we are near a market top with full retail participation? I suggest you get a copy of Bill Fleckenstein's Mania Chronicles and read about the booming job market, ultra-strong economy, and wild-eyed fascination with stocks going on in 1999 - 2000.
We are nowhere near that. People are still negative on stocks.
As long as we have this wall of worry, its all good for equity investors.
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Thanks Robo-
Keep posting your thoughts I'm try to learn as much as I can.
I am surprised the market has been able to hold up this long despite strong fundamental and technical headwinds. Whatever is driving prices higher should be respected even if we may disagree as to the potential causes. Keeping an open mind while reading charts and maintaining risk management is critical for long-term financial success. Looking back at history who knew various manias and panics would develop or last a certain amount of time. When the market is showing signs of fatigue the charts will let us know and we can take appropriate action.
18 up, 18 sideways. Its been the pattern for over one hundred years. Seeing more and more commentaries talking about it. We are over half way through it whether you measure from 1998 or 2000.
Can you even imagine DJI hitting 100k when China becomes the world's largest economy. (and yes commodities will be at unthinkable levels, as will be poverty, but compared to now there will be more people on the planet better off than there are now) Planning for change, yes indeed.
Eighteen years is a long, long time these days.
I believe 18 is also the average life of a Kondratieff season of which we are in Winter now. As such this season should last until about 2018 which makes me sceptical of a start of a new bull market. Despite the charts grinding higher the market is overvalued by most common measures and in some cases by about 60%:
http://dshort.com/articles/three-valuation-indicators.html
Needless to say the current buying spree may last quite a bit longer before reality sets in one way or another.
Neat stuff, thanks.
The pausing around 1120 and 1220 would be expected. When we get through 1280 I'll be just as shocked as I was in late 2006 (and 1999). I spend about half as much time on the US as I used to.
RT, ever thought of using a scintillating watermark style background directly on your charts?
Robo's posts are market centric, which is what it is, and I think a healthy alternative view. I think what has me mystified that the "recovery" isn't visible to many. Certainly not the unemployed, and certainly not the underemployed. Moreover, the actual probems that caused this crisis - housing bubble, capital arbitrage via securitization (originate to sell), bad ratings, overleverage, etc. - are all still sitting there under the rug. Nothing has actually been fixed. We have a financial sector in disarray, but partying like it is 2006, and a growing disconnect between fundamentals, sentiment and the markets.
We have a Fed that pinched off the slack in the rope and tied it up, so the rope looks tight, but is really full of knots and loops. Meanwhile, we have a huge debt overhang no one seems to be talking about. Now, late in the year, things have gone utterly silent. Where's the work? Where is the money?
None of this changes the fact that the markets do what they will, but I see 2011 as a muddle along year at best, and a hunker down and hope for the best as more likely.
once the recovery is visible to "many" then it is fully priced in. I'm not sure I believe in a recovery anyway, but I just trade volatility.
Agreed on that. I've always enjoyed Robo's posts (and yes, the pictures, though they be fewer these days). A recovery requires spending, and spending requires cash flow. People are spending more relative to lousy prior year numbers. Great. But there is a true malaise and mistrust that has taken root in this country that makes me think the markets are operating on vapors. Look for any academic paper on the effect of inflation on the stock market from decades past - consensus is it isn't healthy. People have less wealth even with the reflation of the markets - home values down, 401k down, pay down, employment down. People don't spend on me, I don't spend on stuff. We had municipalities and states geared for perpetual growth in tax revenues, now a distant memory, but the costs remain. How will muni defaults affect those who went there chasing yield? Will they get bailed out too? Wealth destruction, followed by less spending. The market is trying to chase its historical values, but we are very far from the problems working through the system. There is the disconnect.
my 401k is up...
I've been in yield plays, energy, miners, and some bonds. Been a good year or two in it.
Not everyone is sitting in dumbass tech funds
You are exactly right, none of the underlying problems have been fixed, which is why people here are generally bearish -- they (we) are the types who like to peer beneath the shiny surfaces presented by the mainstream media, and seek the truth about the economy.
Note that most reports of economic improvement in the media focus on YOY growth compared to 2009. But of course 2009 was one of the worst years on record for holiday spending since the market had crashed.
I'll believe things are better when the Fed feels comfortable raising rates, when will that be? I'm staying out of the stock market, it just feels like the slightest breeze could knock down the whole house of cards.
If you've ever seen a time-lapse video of a dead animal, it looks like it's still alive as the maggots and other scavengers are busily eating the corpse underneath the hide. Once the corpse is completely eaten, then something new will come along.
Make some calls. Give us some triggers. Saying how great sectors did or are doing doesn't help or prove anything. But thx for the postings
Bull and Bear are terrible terminologies for what is going on now. I think Unicorn and “I can’t believe my fucking eyes” would be better terms. The Unicorn doesn’t care that things are amiss in the financial system but also knows the market will always go up and treat them well. The “I can’t believe my fucking eyes” people are still in shock that this Ponzi charade is working as well as it is. Bull and Bear should be reserved for markets free from central bank intervention.
The Unicorns and the Indignant. I like it.
Someone should make a big bronze statue of it and replace the Bull and Bear on Wall Street, Project Mayhem style.
The Bulls have company.. 96% of them are bullish as High as 2007. WE KNOW HOW THAT TURNED OUT.
Maybe the FDIC will close a few more banks today, they on a govment break or something?
I hear that certain German industrialists made a killing (so to speak) by employing concentration camp labor during WWII as well. If that's where the profits are ....
I wonder if your trades have left you any better off that you would have been by simply buying silver?
Probably not.
Enjoy your eternal masturbation session in the burning building. It's all good until the whole damn thing comes down on your head. You won't be able to get out in time.
Beautifully said!
Indeed, RobotTraitor, it is unlikely that all but a tiny, tiny fraction of the very savviest investors in equities since 2000 have done better than us poor, dumb slobs who have bought and held gold and/or silver since early in the last decade. But some hamsters do seem to enjoy running in their wheel.
I dunno. Got out in AUG98. Have been selectively buying since. As for gold and silver since 2000 do a data check. Yup they did great. So did hundreds of other things. Good for everyone who got into those things. The poor dumb slob, its simple just buy PMs thing seems a bit trite to me.
it really depends on what you measure against. Unless you are like a lot of Internet heroes and don't have a pot to piss in.
to cry and moan over a lack of bulls or bears is a sign of a loser, normally.
you trade your own book and if you are on the other side then why would you care who is a bull or a bear?
If a trader wants to post up a trade idea and the reason behind it then fine.
If like robo and wanger they post cliche and charts after the fact then big deal go to Maketwatch or wherever the kids hang.
If either have posted the before then fine. I have not looked at everything they have posted so I could have missed it.
Robo...I don't think anyone that may be venting here is really mad at your comments per say. What I think many, myself included, are really discouraged or disheartened by is that it now seems to be a perfectly acceptable truth that the market is a complete fraud and that nothing matters except what the "masters" want.
I think that even you would admit that this is all a complete fraud and farce. And the ugly truth of the matter is that all of us that play the market, be we bullish or bearish, help the fraud thrive.
We are all guilty of perpetuating a fraud on the American and Global economy. If you play the market at all...You are not innocent.
well the bills will have to be paid in retirement, won't they? and the cash won't magically reproduce. (alas only the bernanke can do that.) so you have to invest in something!
Precisely! The sad part is, my compassion will NOT prevent me from feeding even these miserable leeches after the Great Implosion! I wish the Flying Spaghetti Monster would push the reset button already!
lol!
I agree with the "RobotTrader Philosophy"....my #1 focus is price action....
my view on why "Resistance Is Futile": http://exploitthemarket.com/blog/299/resistance-is-futile/
Of course, like many others I have my Austrian Economics background and hate what is happening, but I also have to eat and pay bills, and if the bernank is giving away money, I want some of it.
Summary and pro forma attached.
Assumptions in the P/F
Returns
Every con artist claims to have been early on a trend. Robo never made a call that would prove it. So Robo, stop with the BS and put it on the line. Make a few well reasoned calls and prove how you can do.
Prediction - he won't do anything except make more unsubstantiated claims.
You don't know what you are talking about. You also need to check back.......Nic Lenoir did an article following a 300,000 EMini SP buy placed at and just after market close on Aug 31........Dow was at the 9950 mark and turned up from there.
Robot posted a comment on that article pointing out the 'fix was in', closed all shorts, reversed and went long, big.
I know.
Robo I am trading futures for a living and after 9 years playing this game only way to survive and make some money is to shut down any news, TV, phone or opinion of my mates and follow the chart....
I know economy is shit and all is based on one big lie but I trade for living and noticed
maket is going up .
you are right about that. It's hard to know how to use "news" to trade. I always traded wrong on the news.
with a mature options market you'll always get a technical bid so the markets nothing like 1929...1933 as most folk think, but it can easily go sideways for 30 years. Anybody buying ATM puts in 2007 are gonna get looked up in 2013
absolutely. Now I see the real traders have showed up.
Robo,
Would you describe yourself as a pragmatist? I have no issue with anyone making money and being a cheerleader about it. What I don't comprehend is if you actually cheer the fact that the US is running up $1+ Trillion annual budget deficits whilst the Fed massively expands its balance sheet and seeks to promote inflation upon a citizenry that suffers from high unemployment. Do you enthusiastically endorse those factoids, or are you indifferent to the potentially catastrophic results these policies might produce in the future? Your clarification on this matter would be of interest to some of us. I hope you do actually care that unadulterated Keynesian economics may have bad results for future generations.
robo is probably gone, but as robo's loyal dittohead I shall humbly answer in his place although I am not worthy. Robo and real traders don't cheer or cry. They take the world as it is and trade with it. Trading and investing is amoral, not meaning lack of morals, but that moral constructs do not enter. However there are always limits. I doubt I could invest in a slave trader.
Biggus Dickus Jr.,
Thanks for the reply. I appreciate your response. I think some folks on this board do interpret some of Robo's posts as braggadocio at times. That may irk people who are rightfully concerned about the fiscal policies being implemented. I want to see sustainable economic recovery. However, massive doses of heroin and hopium are not the medicine many of us believe we need. Massive deficit spending and dilution of fiat currency seem like mighty dangerous medicine. I hope our leaders don't sacrifice the future for short-term gains. Future generations may inherit a country and a world that are unrecognizable to many of us today. Getting richer on APPL and NFLX stock today does not seem a fair exchange for that sort of future...
Good luck!
Just a thought, I like to watch how many trashes Robo gets as a contrarian indicator.
if you are an active trader I am sure you have.
no way around that.
I was wondering something similar . I don't think , and I could be wrong here , that Robot Trader views the current state of the US , monetarily or fiscally , as positive . Nor do I think he is happy about the obscene debt/deficit levels . It appears that rather than applying a trading strategy based on exhaustive fundamental research he is using a pure , plain vanilla price action approach combined with some simple truths . He has rightly ( in my opinion anyway ) observed that to a large extent the market is being manipulated by certain financial institutions armed with a cheap/exponential flow of funding from the Federal Reserve and that attempting to fight against forces possessing such powerful resources is futile and ruinous . In this type of environment you either stop trading or you turn yourself around and start to ride with the trend . It's an incredibly simplistic strategy , but it's also a profitable one .
I think he gets too much slack on ZH . He's being pragmatic , he's adapting to market conditions and , I assume , he's making money .
Ferg,
Thanks for the reply. I appreciate your response.
I have no problem with people riding trends and making lots of money. I was an enthusiastic participant in the oil and gas services sector during the great multi-year run of oil prices up to $147 in 2008. I made plenty of money, and I never once felt bad about it. I did stay in that sector a bit longer than I should have (i.e. I gave some of those profits back later in 2008), but it was a great ride. However, I didn't feel at that time that I was making profit as a result of the broad equity markets being a rigged casino. I beieve oil prices never should have been kited up so high, but I don't think that was the result of broad action by the Fed. There is no doubt the Fed is trying to inflate the market now. I don't think that was ever the intended purpose of the Fed, and I never believe that market was intended to be so blatantly rigged. I have no position in the stock market, but I fear what is happening. I hope the Fed knows what it is doing. It takes more than the 100% guaranty of an "Academian" on '60 Minutes' to assuage my concerns.
Good luck!
John Law Lives ,
Apologies if I implied that you were against people riding trends . Personally I'm not at all opposed to it in the slightest . I think retail traders should fully take advantage of them . After all we're just catching a ride on the coattails of the big institutions . The Fed indeed is not mandated to inflate markets/target asset prices and seems to be taking a very liberal slant on its prerogatives . Of course when you combine this with a balloning national debt/budget deficit and a shameful lack of political will/bravery to properly address these issues , things can only end one way . Like yourself I have no position in the stock market and probably won't for many years . I believe that massive stimulus efforts and bloated monetary policies right across the globe have only provided a brief spurt of improvement , but at the cost of saddling already burdened nations with huge amounts of debt . If you think Bernanke was nervous on "60 Minutes" just wait until he's dragged in front of Ron Paul's Domestic Monetary Policy Subcommittee . Now that is going to be some entertaining television !
Best of luck trading .
Yes.. just follow the Charts as they lead off the cliff!..all one has to look at is the credit mkts, Muni's and Corp. Hi Yld in particular to realize all is not well. 15 -20 % losses in 3 months.. Ouch. Credit leads Equity.
Look at a weekly chart of MUB, looks like defaults are being priced in ? yes? Looks like a few are already ch11.
The muni and high yield portions of the portfolios/funds/securities I see are not down 15 to 20P over the last few months. Would you care to elaborate? True, the high yield total return since the peak is about even as are convertibles. For a real train wreck see things like JFP - great yield, shame about the price.
Credit does lead equity(agreed) and its a sign of what is wrong with the capital markets. Growth based on debt and credit. Financial accounting scum.
Quiz: If all is not well, then things can get better, but if things don't get any better than this then what?
Munis are getting crushed by the BABs potential expiration. Why is this so important? This is what happens when intervention is no longer present. Now the question is will it persist after BABs are not extended? And how long until they cave in to throw more money at muni bonds?
Intervention still exists in the stock market (per Bernanke and QE) so why not move your money there instead of unsupported muni bonds, or so goes the reasoning.
Junk bonds have been correlating well with stocks all year up until now, +/- 1-2 weeks. We will need to see junk bonds pick up their bid in the next 1-2 weeks in order to believe this stock move is a trustworthy one. Unless you make the case that people are selling junk bonds to get into stocks.
with u
The BABs gotta go though, they are insidious in so many ways. I'd rather see them go and take my lumps than try to navigate a market with them.
The fundamental error is in thinking that "they" are "in control" of markets. ZH has run multiple articles laughing at the "half life" of interventions by various central banks. Hell, look at the performance of 10-yr Treasurys recently! Is this part of their grand consipiracy too--Bernanke explicitly says he wants to lower interest rates, and yet as soon as QE2 commences interest rates start to rise??
Granted, it is really painful being short this market at the moment, but when it goes over it will fall far faster than it rose (the few little declines so far prove this).
Now watch the municipal crisis begin to unfold. The problem is that every f$$$g town, city, county, water and sewer district has loaded up on debt, safe in their assumptions that developer impact fees would go on forever, not to mention rising property values. And on top of that, they loaded up on pension fund obligations, salary hikes, etc.
And there is no way they can pay. So they have kicked the can down the road so far by accounting tricks, one-time gimmicks, and BAB. And it does not look like the incoming Congress is gonna be into BAB.
Any bulls care to wager what will happen to stocks when munis go over the cliff into freefall? Granted, there are risks to my thesis, perhaps Congress renews BAB, perhaps the municipalities can kick the can for another 12 months. But when munis go over, what then?
The problem is that they "borrowed" money without either intent or means to repay it. They consumed what they borrowed. It's gone!
In more polite circles, this would be called "fraud".
The problem is that in our fiat system, one party's debt is another's "money". So what happens when the munis end up in chapter 9 court? Money goes out of existence. Blink. Welcome to deflation bitchez!!!
A&P filed chapter 11 today. Anyone long PHM, LEN, KBH, XBH, etc? Where are those guys all headed, inevitably? There are other industries who have to head to zero, but surely the homebuilders are walking undead.
Think that will be good for the market? Oh, and as credit ratings continue to fall, what's happening now? Mortgage rates are starting to rise!
Yes, markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. But can anyone point out a billionaire who made his money following the tape, without a thesis or macro view, with only a knowledge of price and none of value?
Anyone? Bueller??
Trend trading works, until it doesn't. Kinda like can-kicking, extend-pretending, ponzi-scheming, etc.
ok I will bite. I do think BABs may be a problem. Raising the deficit may be a problem also. The Euro is a problem. I agree with your thesis, just not the timing. I am about as hedged as I can be without giving up too much upside. Take losses early. Take losses often, and reposition. I hope to reposition ahead of the crowd when your thesis comes into play. In the meanwhile, party on!
I should add, re: interest rates, that rising interest rates are bad for the other parts of the ponzi. Investors and traders who have exposure take losses, consumers on fixed incomes or who watch their net worth every month have less to spend. Corporate cost of capital goes up, as do mortgages. Rising rates will put the brakes on 100 different parts of the economy. Please consider that before saying "yes, The Man wants rising rates."
Rising rates will be initially spun as sign of a healthy growing economy. Party on! Another reason to buy buy buy!
I AM BIGGUS DICKUS! (but they call me Junior). It's been fun wanking with you guys tonight. I'm glad to see a few real traders still come out every once in a while. Go back to LATOC and count your cans of mountain house for the rest of you. By the way the owner of LATOC now has an astrology site. I'm sure some of you poseurs, armchair anarchists, and unemployed whiners might like that site too! But I love all of you. Even the Nazi analogizers (that means you sheepdog! Give Dickus a big kiss!)! Zero hedge wouldn't be the same without diversity! Don't forget to buy the T-Shirt!
I junk myself and it feels really good. Have to do it more often!
I won't go to hell for that will I?
No, not for THAT.............
Good nite little Dick
Just thought you should know that in honor of the robust housing market, the wallboard cartel is trying to push through a 25% price increase.
Now is the Bernanke a trend setter or what. You don't even need increasing demand, just demand more.
Good nite, sleep tite.
c'mon man give us a lil more...good picks, atm call options, whatever...i am with robo on this one. make money on the way up. small allocations with calls take profits quickly and keep converting profits to PM
Prophet says:
THERE IS NO THEY
get on with what needs to be done and be responsible about it
DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN OTHER PEOPLE'S BROKEN PROCESSES
have a nice weekend.
If this article isn't a market top. I don't know what one is.
If this article isn't a market top. I don't know what one is.
Since everyone is posting cartoons, it's time for a repost:
PS "subprime is contained"
"Everybody will have their day in the sunshine."
Whatever the interpreter they use on xtranormal doesn't get 'Hmmm' right. LOL
....outfuckinstandingly funny.
Thanks Tyler. Just as funny the second time.
robo, you cad you shouldn't have!
:)
broccoli man = GWB
When it comes to trading, this is one of the wisest posts in recent months on
zerohedge, really. Everybody knows the US economy is in bad shape, but as long
as 'The Ben Bernank' is in charge of the Fed, the stock market will never go
under water. He'll just electronically print enough money to pump up the
inflation rate and stock market - no exception.
Robo,
Did you create this video yourself? That money manager sounds awfully like what you've been saying on ZH for years.
Guess I'm still confused. Always thought 'bullish' referred to fundamentals improving, not the ponzi factor. Oh well, I just trade for shits and giggles, though the meter is in the deep shit range.
Hey Robo,
I feel for you. One must follow the tape. I was "retired" Sept. 15th 2008 from a mono-line. Been trading my own nut since then. Made money on the downside and post March 09 got tired of having my SPY puts burned. I am no bull, I think we are fucked as a nation, but I ain't stickin' my neck out any more. Read enough about Weimer to understand that shorts get hammered in a crackup bust. I will trade AAPL puts when I think it gets ahead of itself. Other than that, I trade only what I understand, oil, gas, gold, silver. Doin' ok, I guess. Hell, just bought a Picasso.
Lovely! what was it? drawing? painting?
Erotic Couple Litho 8.10.64 IX
very stylish, very Picasso
Not sure if you have a stomach for someone like me but I trade a little different then robo at this point but would like to learn charts ect...
Do you have a few books/resources that helped you along the way ?
Thanks ....
I can stomach a lot of people, you would be surprised what you can learn from people. Moreover, I am always willing to learn. I do not suffer fools.
Most influential book vis a vis investing was "Twilight in the Desert". Trained as a physicist, I used my understanding of thermodynamics and the exponential function to figure out how the economy really works at its roots and what were its limtations. Learned finance working on wall street. Realized in early 2006 that oil is the best long term hedge against damn most anything. I can still remember being the only "gold bug", bringing rolls of Kennedy's that I paid $8.00 for face and being stared at blankly.
Thanks for listening.
Thank you.... Hope you post again. Looking for that book already ....
Physicist = Way above my understanding.. :-)
I'm really looking for books/info on reading/understanding charts ....So I can trade intra day. At this point I am just watching chart trends, using research, studying macro stuff, pick late starting sectors at this point. US Steel, ArcelorMittal, DRYS,Deutsche Bank ect...... Buying and holding for a few weeks or a few months. Working out great right now but I want to get better.
Hope someone can help.
Identify value and buy it cheap, and be patient. Identify money-good companies. Alas, Easier said than done.
I don't day trade, I look 3-6 months ahead. I buy option spreads on GDX, SLV and what not. Right now, you can buy a Jan 12 50-60 call spread in GDX for 6 bucks or so. I like those odds. My passion is junior mining companies, mainly listed on the TSX venture exchange. I identified Rare Earths along time ago, I have shares of GWG that I picked up at 9 cents. Best thing I have ever bought is PBT, an oil and gas trust.
Dont look at US Steels balance sheet brutal... Lol' But Cat is booming/mining division-- suppliers of metal/material are not sitting on much stock now,also machine shops in Chicago are busy. US Steel will be booming over the next 2 quarters filling those needs...
I only have one miner that I've traded -gold miner/exploration. VGGCF
VG GOLD CORPThey have a Q/report coming up on the 15(I think) of this month.Could pop big on more news. I bought at 61 cents and its at 90 cents now. Its been rolling...."VG Gold is focused on developing its four gold projects situated in the heart of the world class Timmins Gold Camp in Canada. Currently VG Gold is performing permitting, mine planning and exploration work that may lead toward production."....
Really appreciate your feedback. I drink up as much as I can from the pro's.
WoW - GWG ...... That looks like a no brainer.
I missed out on US Steel and Dupont, failed to pull the trigger when I should have. Also the Choo-choos, traded out of UNP, CSX and CNI too early.
Look at AMC.TO, that is a value play. Trading at 60% of book value. Also AUY, imagine paying $75 per oz AU equiv for a company that produces 1 million oz per annum...
Good luck!
Just a thought from reading your chart thing, Smailes........try John Kicklighter who writes/comments for FXCM. Kicklighter is an excellent mix of fundamentals and technicals and often quotes Zero Hedge.......probably comments here too, but under a different identity.
If you are a US resident then the trading platform is restricted to fx. If you have an address outside the US then FXCM has a London operation and offers CFDs (sort of a European version of CME, CBOT futures with much more flexibility for position sizing although the spreads are higher than for futures)(the UK platform offers CFDs for all of the major indexes - SP, Dow, Nikki, FTSE, DAX, Oil, gold, silver and quite a few currency pairs beyond the majors.
Kicklighter puts out top quality educational material with daily reports, trade calls (for kicklighter's own account), entry and exits points, stops and all of the associated.
For what it is worth I think Kicklighter is one of the best and most consistent analysts around.......Robot is another story of course, but check it out if you are interested. Demo accounts are available with a pretty nice charting package to boot.
btw........I do not work for the company. This is a personal opinion derived from futures and fx trading experience.
Thanks.... !!!
You'll find Kicklighter at dailyfx dot com........http://www.dailyfx.com/
Sorry, forgot to mention that important detail.
Another trader/analyst at FXCM's DailyFX worth reading is Joel Kruger who prefers counter trend trading.......a different style than Kicklighter but effective and also consistent nonetheless.
nice!
Thank you.... allowed me to cross an item off "The Bucket List"
I'd rather be a year early than one day late to the inevitable crash.
To each his own... We all know it's coming, but our confidence in our ability to time it varies.
I don't know what you all are laughing at.
The video reveals all. There are seminars and mentorships costing thousands that don't even come close.
Watch it twice, write it all down, trade it.
Big cap corporate mother fuckers!!!
A new way to put an old axiom:
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
I don't try to make money betting at a rigged casino.
I don't have the same confidence in the market manipulators. To me being long in this market seems like picking up dimes in front of a steamroller. I don't day trade. I started dollar cost averaging into PM's awhile ago. Maybe I'll get wiped out, but at least I'll still have something.
I appreciate Robo's input. I just couldn't sleep at night trying to play his game. Different strokes.
If you are dollar cost averaging into precious metals just 20 percent stocks rebalanced yearly will give you a better return with less risk. Surely you could live with 20 percent stocks. The pain of a fifty percent loss grinding slowly over ten years is virtually unbearable and you may capitulate at some point if you have only pm's. Just a tiny bit of diversification may help.
The new axiom is:
The Banks can stay insolvent longer that you can stay rational.
Welcome back Robo. Pomo will push up stocks to the moon! :P
Big cap mother fuckers!
Elliott Wave International needs a little Victoria's Secret. Great Vid. Yuummmmmmm.
I really don't understand why Robo gets junked for freely expressing his market theories. I can attest to his uncanny ability to analyze charts and patterns in real time. He has created his own lexicon to describe market that follows from using his own investing style that is NOT only momentum based but also anticipates future "pigmen" maneuvers. He is willing to share his knowledge with you as he has been doing elsewhere for many years, that's why I know what he is talking about.
If the market goes to new highs, will it mean that US economy is robust and will grow at 5% per year---no, the only thing it'll mean is that fiat is worth less than it was the previous year.
Bank Closing Information - December 10, 2010
These links contain useful information for the customers and vendors of these closed banks.
Earthstar Bank, Southampton, PA
Paramount Bank, Farmington Hills, MI
Is trading the Fed manipulation bullish? Or are you just along for the ride. I stopped shorting entire markets and sectors for a year- since the POMO thing got out of hand. There are secular bulls and just people who go long.
FAZ caught my eye today as its as low as I have ever seen it - and the upside is insane. Looks tempting...and something is afoot if the weak players are getting stopped out . The price is way out of proportion to banking prospects- wthout considering the end of the world stuff.
Plus the me- too bulls and bears who change their minds after a FED ejaculation is getting silly.
I will say that in either scenario the gold sector is going and will go parabolic with big volatility to shake weak hands out. We have seen that play more than pomo stock buying. The commodities manipulation gets weaker each day.
I have a core position in junior miners to ride it out. Its better to be in longterm bull equity position and ride big waves down than to be in cash with brokerages at growing declines of revenue and possible inability to teade out or cash out- SIPC being self-insurance and basically broje since 2009.
If you have a substantial core position in junior miners and you don't trade the sector then you have balls of steel. I can't stomach 30 percent drops.
Great video and thanks for intelligently explaining your strategy. I have a new level of respect for you.
I suspect your strategy may work 95% of the time when the pig men can control things. But I worry about the 5% of the time when the pig men are not in control. Like when the bond market demands more return for the risk. Or when some Euro country defaults. Or when China's bubble bursts. We know one of these catastrophic 5% events is guaranteed soon because declining net energy means there is insufficient wealth being generated to service the debt.
I believe the 5% event will wipe out all of the 95% profits and more. So I stay out of the market and hedge between inflation and deflation with cash and gold. The only thing I have to think about is what is the optimal split between cash and gold. And I sleep easy at night.
Run tight stops and take losses early and you should be able to avoid those five percent events. Jesse livermore got ruined because he ultimately was too stubborn to take losses before it was too late.
I was curious about the time range chosen for the charts, so I did a co-plot of SPY and XLF for 5 years. XLF is currently down 50% from 5 years ago (75% from its peak in the fall of 2008). SPY is down as well-except for the last two years (from its low). So, my Mom, who keeps all her funds in CDs is doing better than any investers over last 5 years. So charts, like abstract art, are best viewed from a distance which traders rarely both to do. Moreover all price charts should be plotted ratioed by the price of some finite resource like gold or oil. In terms of gold, for example, SPY normalized by $gold is down 100% (from .18 to .09) over the last three years "rally". The author is just looking as the $ debasement effect. In that case, the so-called rally is a total joke Don't get fooled by randomness. Why would you waste your time trying to time the market fluctuations when no one can predict future news (war, pandemics, soverign defaults, state defaults, pension force liquidations, hedge fund force liquidations etc.)? Ever wonder why "traders" never make the Forbes 400 list? Trade long enough and you'll get fooled by randomness. You need inside information and POMO isn't inside information. Just ask yourself why is the counterparty taking the other part of the trade and why do you think you know more than they do? Everything reverts to the mean for sound reason.
+1
Mean reversion trades are about the only consistent way to make money as a trader. You are right about random walks otherwise except the stock market is not random but has a steady upward bias over hundreds of years in aggregate. Everyone should read nassim taleb.
His best book is Dynamic Hedging. Almost no one realizes it. Taleb's main thesis is that he's smarter than everybody else. Which may be true, but why be a snob about it. Oh and secondarily, the models that almost everybody prices derivatives on are flawed in that they fail to incorporate market extremes properly. He's not a mean reversion guy, that was Long Term Capital, oops.
Robo is right when he says don't fight the tape.
For many of us the tape has recently been gold or silver. But Robo feels stocks are on the rise as well. Whether prices move by fraud or force, the tape doesn't lie.
We can all be right. It's not an either-or.
Robo's consistent error in this forum is to play stock picker or sector picker. If you're going to play the tape, play some index.
As they say on Top Gear, let's have a race: your stock index vs my precious metals.
That'll be fun.
Sorry that junk flag was an accident. Damn Android. I look forward to the results of the race over the next six months...but I plan to trade in and out of precious metals.
Thank you RT--you make great sense and it is good of you to share your ideas---peace and joy to you!!!
Congrats on coming out, RoboTrader. Maybe this'll help with the junk counts.
If you never believe in anything, morals will never get in your way.
ROBO +1
Your front-page lead-in was better than the article. It sounded like it might have more substance than the usual charts-and-girls thing.
Robo came in five minutes after Tyler, back when chindit13 was still posting under one of the many "anonymous" (anonymi?). His daily missives used to be must reads, and not only for the "graphics". Somewhere along the way, as the perma doomers flocked en masse to this site, Robo caught the plague.
I tend to the perma gloomer side of things, but I appreciate Robo (and Harry) being here to slap my face on occasion and remind me that 1) I might be wrong, and 2) insanity can last a long time.
I will add a non-expert opinion here regarding the two factions...Robo probably had his dander raised by the constant abuse thrown his way and responded by trying to goad those who go at him. His ever-increasing number of junks suggests he has struck a raw nerve. The doomers, bunker-hunkered and looking at a lifetime's supply of freeze dried Kung Pao Chicken, are a little envious that the Pollyannas (Harry) as well as the cynical longs (Robo) are dining regularly at The French Laundry.
Without any of the above factions, ZeroHedge would not be the same.
Very well said.
Witty and spot on as usual, Chindit. Is the French Laundry anything like the old Chili Bordello?
Here's some questions you should probably be asking.
Q: What does a stock market mean in a psuedo-capitalist county?
A: Not much.
Q: How can it be that a country that spends almost twice as much as it collects can borrow for 10 years at 3 percent?
A: It can't. Such an entity is simply not credit worthy. They've arranged the system to make it appear that there is demand for their paper when there is none.
Q: So why are stocks going up, house prices stable and interest rates so low?
A: Because instead of fixing what's wrong, we have chosen to perpetuate it by deficit financing, rigging our own debt markets and collapsing our currency.
In other words Robo, we have to steal from both the elderly (savers) and future generations to make people like you look smart. Stocks are a sideshow, the real "barbarous relic" of fools who don't understand the difference between capitalism and facism.
As long as you look at stocks in terms of Federal Reserve Notes, you can feel like a winner. The sad part is you're losing and you don't even know it because you don't know how to keep score.
Bon voyage.
I think the biggest mistake "traders" make is confusing news and analysis with trading the markets. Whatever market. In a good market "bad news" provides a buying opportunity. In a bad market good news provides a "selling opportunity." These days the Fed is inflating the equity markets to create wealth. So be it. Go with the flow. Use your profits to buy gold.
We can't crash until everybody's a raging bull. Bulls, just so you know....the ramrod (anybody out there know what that means - I doubt it) gave you party animals a little something extra in your feed up till party time. Relax, enjoy yourselves...., just walk towards the bright light, moving, swaying, swinging, laughing, feelin' good.....bang - what the, what was that - I'm dizzy, but still feeling good....falling down - why? Why's he putting that harness around my legs....and why does it go up, dizzy now, feelin' sick, blurry, is that my buddy Ben..............................................................
Nice post Robo
I am not a trader but I apreciate the logic of what you are saying.
There is, however, the disaster/black swan unwind scenario which is a looming threat given all the systemic icebergs floating around. Who knows when that will hit.
I just tell people to stay away from the markets and let the pros and predators go at each other.
What we are seeing has nothing to do with the real economy. It is all Benron's head game.
You must participate on some level even if it is a lifecycle or life strategy fund. No one has a defined benefit plan anymore except the government worker.
Yes, but that is not good enough of a reason to burn cash so Wall Street can get rich playing video games ;-)
I called APPLE, NTFLX and PMs in 2008, that paid off nicely.
But that is not exactly what I call being a trader.
One needs to be really quick to play the market. The big boys can pull the trigger faster than most.
RobotTrader
keep posting.
a trader knows what one can control.
a trader is validated by one's bottomline.
nothing else matters.
a trader trading a complete trading plan will continuously make more money than one loses.
wondering.
how many of these commentors could trade a two comma account?
twittering as stocktradr
ZH should have a disclosure policy mandatory for anyone allowed to write posted articles, as to how exactly the writer is positioned, and whether they have a financial interest in promoting, selling or shorting equities or other financial products.
Also, ya' just gotta love people oozing bullishness after stocks just ramped up the most in the shortest period of time in history.
If the economy were fundamentally sound, that'd be one reason to still think plenty of upside may come.
But with a flat to very weak economy, depending on one's outlook, and with cost cutting driving much of the gains companies have enjoyed, not to mention the atrocious last year's number making it an easy beat this year, I'm not buying the bull scenario, no matter how much POMO (of very possible diminishing return now) Bernanke does (it also looks like Bernanke is potentially going to get kneecapped soon).
Robot is pushing gambling at this point; not investing - not with Bernanke pushing on a string and not with the government precariously balancing and supporting the economy on its pinky finger, as it picks winners and losers.
Exactly. 42 million Americans on food stamps, unemployment benefits extended to infinity, true unemployment at at least 17%, almost a years worth of shadow inventory , commercial real estate in the crapper. Yeah , all is well, stocks to infinity and beyond. That being said, Robo is right short term regarding the equity market, if you are going to play stocks, you gotta trade based on the reality of the tape, not trade on Macro long term reality of this crappy economy. I personally don't have the stomach to play in a rigged casino. Good luck.
RobotTrader is a gun...I especially miss the 'get out Dodge, clothes line shank, wilderbeast river crossing, etc, etc humorous analogies he once wrote on a daily basis before Gold fever hit. I too am a big fan & am bullish on the USD. The wash, rinse & repeat cycle is king for now!
Robo's fund idea reminds me of "Reminiscences of a stock operator" - an autobiography of a guy who started as a teen in the 1890s bucket shops, betting purely on momentum. He did very well sometimes, very badly other times, was having to work for pump-and-dump teams by around the time he wrote the book, made another fortune, lost that one, then killed himself. Great book, though.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/its-paid-to-be-bullish-james-altuch...
"It's Paid to Be Bullish": James Altucher Demands Apology from Mish, Roubini
I like to hear other view and i appreciate Robo's posts.
I still trade with small part of my assets but in all honesty i feel that i can not predict anything regarding markets with any certainty over the next few months, never mind next few years.
For my investment i bought some things which i feel have real value, and are going to have increased value in future.
While my investment part has been rewarding, my gambling part has been just up and down, not really worth the effort.
Congratulations to everyone who has managed to do better.
The point of my post is this: I think you should keep most of your money in something you really believe in, rather than follow the hype. And Robo follows hype. That's fine if its with a little amounts, but dangerous if you put in more than you can afford to lose. That is the warning that Robo forgets to put on his posts. Too many people have been swindled out of their savings already.
Robo is a tool. He offers no insight, posts drive-by charts of high fliers after the fact. He has been completely wrong on the best buys of the year (gold, oil), and uses tiny price movements to extrapolate foolish points. Constantly yammering about oil 'blowtorched, bludgeoned, bloodbath' all year even as oil climbs to near 90? Posting repeatedly about gold crashing as it keeps hitting new all time highs? That's bias and trolling.
Sorry, I see nothing in Robo posts different than Leo or Harry. One sided pumpers ignoring reality.
For those who do not have TV access or who do not see B-Berg. A R Paul interview re his appointment as head of the Bernie Boy oversight committee.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHUCAYdq6I8&feature=player_embedded
Or you can pull it up on B-Berg's page and on http://www.prisonplanet.com/
Each time I listen/watch RP I think if he was (take your choice ar select all)
younger, taller, spoke more slowly, charismatic with a deeper voice
he would be the first elected nonparty president. Before you jump me think about it. What if he had the speak easy talk power of Clinton/Obama plus the height and looks the media adors...plus his message. Grand slam. No stopping him. His new appointment is going to be fascinating to watch unfold.
RoBo Hi, glad to see you have balls.
know your a boob man, but i really think some of these posts of bosoms are kinda gross.
they are just too B I G † know i have always been a leg man, ;-0
well, we talked about stupid LuLu and yoga apparel, guess i was wrong when i told you, you spent too much for your GF yoga clothes. i actually do Yoga almost naked. but i suppose your girlfriend and her friends probably don't like to take it off. or get off.
tell me the truth! i want to know how you two, do it. do you use accessorize? come on don't be shy. end of the tread.
actually, i would think that blond would have a sore back.
Velobabe...
Yes, you are correct. I am boob man, it infected me when I was 13 years old and I have been unable to shake it off. It is burned into my DNA, I can't help it.
My girlfriend and I take a lot of yoga classes, and I had heard of LULU as some kind of obscure "cult" shop about a year ago. Some girls I know told me they sold high end yoga gear, so I did go into the store to buy the GF a new yoga outfit and I spent $175.
Yes, I got hosed, the price was ridiculous. But that brand is what all the young, good looking girls are wearing now.
Since then, she has found similar items in the Victoria's Secret catalog for much less...
Any wonder why LTD is also skying???
As for me, I simply show up in the yoga studio with basketball shorts and a tank top.
As a hard core weightlifter for most of my life, yoga has totally revolutionized my training the last 3 years. I have much better balance and stability for my surfing and motocross. Ten years ago I never would have thought that I would have been caught dead in a yoga studio...
But times change and you have to adapt...
cum on Ro Bo, you go to yoga class for the downward D O G style learning.
long or short board on the peer break? i almost died there body surfing, big undertoe, smacked me right down and hard†
Dear Robo - Re: Confessions of a Former Bear
What took you so long?
If you now call yourself a professional trader and utilize leverage you are now about 50% of the way to making good money in the markets with your realization of an inherent bias.
Have you defined a trading strategy? Are you a now long only equity trader now on an E-trade platform? Risk management? How do you size positions and what is your execution methodology?
I appreciated your humor in earlier market recaps with the well sourced attendant 'models' but now the tone of your posts are defense. You must become as agnostic and objective in your observations and learn how to identify high probablility and risk/reward setups before they occur.
Best of luck to you in your new iteration, don't look for the home runs - hit the singles and doubles....
I actually trade very little. I load up at market bottoms and generally hold my positions until I see signs of a market top.
There are some stocks I trade more actively, but for the most part, I usually hold stuff for several months, unless I make a mistake and have to cut a position loose for a loss.
I only trade S & P 500 names, big caps stocks. And I try to hit singles and doubles like you said.
Believe it or not, I am too scared to be chasing many of the IBD Top 100 mo-mo screamers, but I do follow the price action of those stocks because they are a valuable indicator for gauging market strength or weakness.
Perhaps if I was willing to take more risk, I could have made a fortune gunning these names like NFLX, FFIV, PCLN off the lows. But I'm in this for the long term and I'm happy controlling my risk and playing the bigger names for now.
Most of my core holdings are stocks that barely move, such as: MO, T, VZ, DD, DUK, etc., but I like them because they pay a good dividend and it beats keeping cash in a money market account doing nothing.
In the future, I will probably start trading ETF's, because I don't like getting blown up with specific stock risk. For example, my XRT and OIH trades were a big winners this year.
When you really think about it, you can make plenty of money by just trading 2, 3, 4 big market swings a year. The most important thing is to "Get Outta Dodge" if the market cracks and don't try to be a hero when the market turns bearish.
@ Robot Trader. Thanks for the insightful video. I've got PMs/bullets etc. but appreciated confirmation about what to do with the rest of my portfolio before Bill Fleckenstein is proved right at which point I'll probably be dead.
Robo! God Love You!
You are a God Send!
Robo! don't forget to Buy Gold! LMFAO!
I still have plenty of gold, but I did peel off some this year because I felt that it would be stupid not to ring the cash register after a 10-year run. I actually sold the gold to raise more cash so I can pick off the next blown out sector.
I believe the most undervalued sectors right now are solar stocks and natural gas stocks, and even though the market is probably due for a correction soon, I think there is very low risk in getting in those groups right now.
The real "ugly ducklings" I'm looking to buy are: SWN, CHK, ECA, FSLR, TSL
If you load up on market bottoms, where are you loading up? Everybody gave up shorting and the market hologram is long everything. Everything is overbought except Shorting products.
Wecome back, RobotTrader. Missed your posts.
Your excellent humorous and instructive video is painfully on target.
Please keep posting despite the howls of outrage from the armageddon bunker.
As another poster correctly pointed out, there is a world of difference between what should be and what is.